Ukraine War: Time For India To Rethink its Military Doctrine Modeled On Russia's?

[Riaz Haq]

India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to media reports. Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).   

Russian Influence On Indian Military Doctrine. Source: Air Universi...

Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine:

It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on deploying large platforms (tanks, artillery, ships and fighter-bombers) with massive firepower.  Here's an excerpt of an article by Dr. Vipin Narang, an Indian-American analyst, on the subject: 

"In terms of doctrine and strategy, although it may be difficult to trace direct influence and lineage between Russia and India, there are several pieces in India’s conventional and nuclear strategy that at least mirror Russia’s behavior. On the conventional side, the core formation in the quick-strike concept known as “Cold Start” or “proactive strategy options” was modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG). The idea was to have a formation that could be rapidly assembled from tank and armored divisions that could break through reinforced defenses—NATO for Russia, and Pakistan’s I and II Corps in the plains and desert sectors for India.

"On the nuclear side, India is currently seized with the same dilemma as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War: both NATO and Pakistan threaten battlefield nuclear weapons against conventional thrusts (India, at least, presumably would be retaliating following a Pakistan-backed provocation). While both states refined their conventional concept of operations, there may have also been corresponding adjustments to their nuclear strategies. It was long believed that, in response to NATO threats to use nuclear weapons first on the battlefield, the Soviet Union had strong preemptive counterforce elements in its strategy to try to at least disarm the United States of its strategic nuclear weapons for damage limitation. It is increasingly evident that at least some serious Indian officials are interested in developing the same sort of option: preemptive counterforce against Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces, both for damage limitation and to reopen India’s conventional superiority. It is no surprise perhaps, then, that India chose to go ahead with acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile and air defense system, despite the threat of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions from the United States: the S-400 is key to India’s damage limitation strategy, capable of potentially intercepting residual ballistic and cruise missiles that a counterforce strike might miss". 

Pakistani Military Official in Ukraine. Source: New York Times

Turkish Drones: 

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has been highly effective in destroying Russian tanks and armor in Ukraine. It is playing a key role in Ukraine's counter offensives against Russia's invasion. It is proving so effective that "Ukrainian forces are singing its praises, literally", according to a CNN report. 

Indian Army has nearly 6,000 tanks of Russian origin. These tanks are just as vulnerable to drone and anti-tank missiles as the Russian tanks that perished in Ukraine. 

Pakistan has developed Baktar Shikan, a second-generation man-portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system which uses optical aiming, IR tracking, remotely controlled and wire transmitted guidance signals. It can also be mounted on attack helicopters and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs). Its long range, penetration power and a powerful anti-jamming capability form a potent defense against armored targets.

Pakistan is also reported to have already acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones recently. It was displayed in the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2022, along with other military equipment acquired recently by the Pakistani defense forces. 

Anti-Ship Missiles:

Ukraine claims that its Neptune anti-ship missiles hit and sank Moskva in Black Sea.  It was a large 10,000-ton guided missile cruiser of the Russian Navy that was launching cruise missiles on targets in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It is the largest warship to have been sunk in action since WWII. 

Vast majority of Indian Navy ships, including its aircraft carriers and missile frigates, are designed, built and equipped by Russians.  

Pakistan recently showcased its anti-ship missile Harbah at DIMDEX 2022, a defense expo in Qatar. It  is a medium range ship launched subsonic cruise missile system capable of targeting sea as well as land targets in “all weather operation” at a maximum range of 280 kilometers, according to a report in NavalNews. The missile is fire and forget type. It relies on inertial navigation technologies with GPS and GLONASS systems. According to its manufacturer GIDS, the missile features the following guidance systems: a DSMAC camera, imaging infrared seeker, and radar seeker.

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries such as India which rely on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying:  “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

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[Riaz Haq]

https://quwa.org/quwa-premium/new-air-launched-munitions-are-a-key-piece-of-pakistans-dr...

While its flagship cruise missile programs – namely, the Taimur air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) and the Harbah anti-ship cruising missile (ASCM) – are drawing attention, Pakistan’s precision air-launched munitions portfolio is growing through the development of smaller systems.

For example, Global Industrial and Defence Solutions (GIDS) recently revealed se..., which took place in Malaysia earlier in the month of May. In parallel, the National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP) is developing a miniature ALCM by the name of KaGeM V3 in collaboratio....

The development of these small-sized air-launched munitions reflects a wider focus across the Pakistani military to leverage unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to expand its air surveillance and attack coverages in lieu of additional crewed aircraft. This is not to suggest that Pakistan will not acquire new crewed combat and special mission aircraft; rather, the expansion or net-growth of Pakistani airpower will likely be driven by new drones of a wide variety of sizes and capabilities. 

Thus, the development of the BURQ, KaGeM V3, and others should be viewed in light of a broader set of investments, especially in space-based assets – such as satellite communications (SATCOM) and satellite navigation (SATNAV) – and proprietary data-link systems. The new air-launched munitions are a piece of a wider effort in Pakistan of advancing a robust and far-reaching drone program.

[Riaz Haq]

How Pakistan Can Emulate Russia’s Use of Ballistic Missiles


https://quwa.org/pakistan-army-news/how-pakistan-can-emulate-russia...

On 02 July, Russia said that it destroyed five Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 Flanker fighter aircraft by using the Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile (TBM). The TBM strikes took place at Myrhorod airfield, which is located in Ukraine’s central Poltava region.

Though Russia’s claims are disputed by Ukraine, it still seems that the Russian military is finding success in its use of TBMs against Ukraine, notably the latter’s high-value targets (HVT), such as its airbases. In fact, Russia appears to specifically be targeting parked or stationary combat aircraft with its TBMs, hence speaking to a wider strategy of using the relatively low-cost munition to neutralize high-cost assets.


Not only are the strikes proving effective in depleting Kyiv’s air combat capabilities, but it also casts into question whether Ukraine is capable of protecting its forthcoming Western fighters, like the F-16. At the same time however, Russia is also vulnerable to similar action from Ukraine, which aims to use ballistic missiles, like the GM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), against the Russians.

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Pakistan’s Army Takes Precision-Strike into its Own Hands
One of the most notable trends in Pakistan’s procurement policies has been the significant focus on giving the Pakistan Army (PA) its own precision-guided long-range strike capabilities. The Fatah-line of surface- to-surface missiles (SSM) is a key driver for achieving these capabilities.

The Fatah-1 is a guided multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) with a range of 140 km. Global Industrial Defence Solutions (GIDS) revealed an extended range variant of the MLRS with a range of 250 km. This was originally called the Fatah-2, but the designation was later given to a different platform, a TBM tested in 2024. The stated-range of the Fatah-2 is 400 km and, in March 2024, Pakistan revealed that it was also working on a Fatah-3 and Fatah-4 with ranges of 450 km and 700 km, respectively.

The Fatah-series adds to the Babur-line of land-attack cruise missiles (LACM), thereby providing the PA with a well-rounded stand-off strike capability that reaches up to 700 km. However, one should expect the PA to pursue even longer ranged designs, potentially in excess of 1,000 km, in the future.

Overall, the PA could be viewing the Fatah and Babur as important assets for deprecating India’s combat capabilities by targeting the latter’s air bases, air defence sites, and other HVTs that, at least in prior years, would have been the primary focus of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).