World Bank: Pakistan Reduced Poverty and Grew Economy During COVID19 Pandemic

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan poverty headcount, as measured at the lower-middle-income class line of US$3.20 PPP 2011 per day, declined from 37% in FY2020 to 34% in FY2021 in spite of the COVID19 pandemic, according to the World Bank's Pakistan Development Update 2022 released this month. The report said Pakistan's real GDP shrank by 1% in FY20, followed by 5.6% growth in FY21.  The report highlights high inflation and low savings rate as key economic issues. 

Pakistan's Macroeconomic Indicators. Source: World Bank

The report credited the PTI government led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan for timely policy measures, particularly the Ehsaas program, for mitigating the adverse socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's an excerpt of the report titled Pakistan Development Update 2022: 

"The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered the policy rate and announced supportive measures for the financial sector to help businesses and the Government expanded the national cash transfer program (Ehsaas) on an emergency basis. These measures contributed to economic growth rebounding to 5.6 percent in FY21.  However, long-standing structural weaknesses of the economy, particularly consumption-led growth, low private investment rates, and weak exports have constrained productivity growth and pose risks to a sustained recovery. Aggregate demand pressures have built up, in part due to previously accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, contributing to double-digit inflation and a sharp rise in the import bill with record-high trade deficits in H1 FY22 (Jul–Dec 2021). These have diminished the real purchasing power of households and weighed on the exchange rate and the country’s limited external buffers." 

The report cites high rates of inflation hurting the people, particularly the poor who spend about half of their income on food. Here's an excerpt: 

"Headline inflation rose to an average of 9.8 percent y-o-y in H1 FY22 from 8.6 percent in H1 FY21, driven by surging global commodity and energy prices and a weaker exchange rate. Similarly, core inflation has been increasing since September 2021. Accordingly, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been unwinding its expansionary monetary stance since September 2021, raising the policy rate by a cumulative 525 basis points (bps) and banks’ cash reserve requirement by 100 bps" 

Pakistan Savings Rate Comparison. Source: World Bank

The World Bank report highlights the low level of personal savings and investments as a key impediment to economic growth. Here's an excerpt: 

"The savings challenge has only been exacerbated by the low level of financial inclusion in the country, where even those who save are not saving with the financial system, and as such savings are not being fully leveraged to support capital formation. Only 21 percent of the population has access to an account and only 18 percent of the population uses digital payments. There are also large gaps in financial inclusion, with vulnerable segments having limited access at high prices. In terms of access to accounts, 7 percent of adult women have access compared to 35 percent of adult men, and 15 percent of young adults (ages 15–24) have access compared to 25 percent of older adults. It should be highlighted, however, that Pakistan has made notable gains on the financial inclusion agenda in recent years, supported by policy reforms and holistic strategies such as the National Financial Inclusion Strategy. However, despite the progress made, Pakistan underperforms on key metrics of financial inclusion in comparison to its peer comparators. Estimates suggest that less than 50 percent of domestic savings find their way to the financial sector, with the rest used in real estate, being intermediated through informal channels, or are soaked up directly by the government through National Savings. The incentive system is skewed such that savings flow outside of the financial sector. The large quantum of currency in circulation (CiC) in the economy is also indicative of this trend. The CiC/M2 ratio, which averaged 22 percent till June 2015 has increased to over 28 percent as of June 2021. The increase in CiC/M2 ratio translates into excess CiC of PKR1.4 trillion. These are resources that could have been intermediated for productive uses by the financial sector but are currently outside the sector." 

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[Riaz Haq]

Global container shipping operator Maersk strengthens its commitment in #Pakistan: Registers 33% growth in #exports out of Pak in the Q1 of 2022. Growth is across all types of exporters, both large & small. #trade #economy #PTI #ImranKhan @PTIofficial https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/maersk-strengthens-its-commitm...

A.P. Moller – Maersk’s (Maersk) strong commitment towards Pakistani exporters is yielding solid results, as indicated by the growth in exports registered by Maersk in the first quarter of 2022. After a slump in exports in 2021 due to the various challenges arising from the global pandemic, the local exporters have shipped almost 33% more containers out of the country between January and March this year on Maersk vessels compared to the same period last year. Maersk’s efforts to ensure access to empty containers and space on vessels have made a real difference in the last quarter.

One of the biggest challenges our customers faced was the availability of containers and space on vessels. We understood their requirements and priorities through constant dialogue with our customers and could forecast the demand and supply equation more accurately in the current volatile market condition. This has helped us plan the movement of our containers effectively, thus making empty equipment available for the exporters to ship their cargo out to the global market.

Hasan Faraz, Managing Director, Maersk Pakistan

The growth in exports has been across all types of exporters – the ones who have long-term contracts with Maersk, the ones who are booking their shipments in the short term, and the small & medium enterprises (SMEs) who are utilising Maersk’s digital platforms such as Twill. Maersk Spot and Twill booking platforms have seen a whopping growth of 57% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 2021.
Through solutions such as Spot and Twill, we create a customer experience wherein the exporters can request quotes, book their shipment, get instant confirmations and track their cargo through easy-to-use mobile applications and platforms. Twill has truly been a game-changer for SMEs who don’t have the expertise in managing complex supply chains. We have teams hand-holding our customers throughout the process to simplify it so that our customers can focus on their core business.

Wajeeh Ahmed, Head of Sales, Maersk Pakistan

Maersk Pakistan has been working hard on ensuring that the Pakistani exporters get better access to containers, vessel space, and digital platforms and creating solutions through the various stages of their cargo’s journey. With the creation of dedicated warehousing and distribution solutions for customers in the retail and pharmaceutical sectors, innovative cold chain logistics solutions for the meat and vegetable industry, and the offering of visibility and tracking solutions such as TradeLens, Maersk Pakistan is heavily investing in simplifying and connecting the complex supply chains for its customers.
Source: A.P. Moller – Maersk

[Riaz Haq]

PSLM survey: Social, living standards across most provinces abysmally poor
By Mehtab Haider May 24, 2021

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/839230-pslm-survey-social-living-s...

Original Source: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/pakistan-social-and-living-standards...

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Social and Living Standard Measurement (PSLM) survey for 2019-20 shows that the literacy rate for 10 years and above remained stagnant at 60 percent compared to the findings of the same survey done in 2014-15. The results also demonstrate that 14 percent of household experienced moderate food insecurity while 2 percent witnessed severe food insecurity in the country.

This official survey known as PSLM was conducted country-wide with a sample of 6,500 blocks and 19,500 households. The PSLM 2019-20 survey provides assessment of the condition of the districts with respect to the human development dimensions like education and health and living standards.

The situation of seven districts of erstwhile FATA was also presented both within Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and separately among the seven districts to give an actual depiction of the situation.

The survey found the overall situation to be satisfactory in Punjab, but the districts of the southern Punjab are lagging behind in all indicators. However, in other provinces situation is poor in majority of districts with some exceptions like Karachi, Hyderabad in Sindh, Peshawar, Abbottabad, Haripur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Quetta and Pishin in Balochistan. It is briefed that this analysis can be used by federal and provincial governments for effective planning and resource allocation.

The literacy rate for 10 years and above remained stagnant at 60 percent in PSLM 2019-20 as compared to PSLM 2014-15 survey. Sindh has shown declining trend in literacy rates. Similarly, net enrollments at primary, middle and matric at all levels in provinces has either remained stagnant or shown decreasing trends.

Enrollments at all levels are highest in Punjab, followed by KP, Sindh while Balochistan is at lowest. There are 32 percent children aged 5-16 years who are currently out of school, highest percentage of out of school children is in Balochistan i.e. 47 percent and lowest in Punjab i.e. 26 percent.

The districts of Rajanpur in Punjab, Thatta in Sindh, Kohistan & Bajaur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Harnai, Qillah Abdullah & Ziarat are the bottom ranked districts in Education indicators within their respective provinces

In terms of all health indicators (Immunization, Pre Natal-Consultations & Skilled Birth attendants), the PSLM 2019-20 survey shows improving trend as compared to PSLM 2014-15.

The full immunization based on record for children aged 12-23 months increased significantly from 60 percent in 2014-15 to 70 percent in 2019-20 and accordingly all provinces has shown increasing trend. The Prenatal care has significantly increased for women aged 15 to 49 years to 77 percent in PSLM 2019-20 as compared to 73 percent in PSLM 2014-15. The mother and child health, another encouraging factor is the percentage of deliveries assisted by skilled birth attendants in overall Pakistan is at upward trajectory with 68 percent in 2019-20 as compared to 58 percent in 2014-15. There is however, stark difference in the health indicators within provinces. Regarding ICT, the results indicate that overall 12 percent of households own computer, laptop etc. 93 percent own mobile phones and 33 percent have internet access, percentages are higher in urban areas than rural areas with 51 percent and 24 percent respectively. The overall 45 percent individual of 10 years and older own mobile phone and 19 percent use internet facility. but there are large gender differences in both indicators where 65 percent males own mobiles as compared to 25 percent females. Similarly 24% of males are using internet as compared to only 14 percent females.

[Riaz Haq]

PSLM survey: Social, living standards across most provinces abysmally poor
By Mehtab Haider May 24, 2021

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/839230-pslm-survey-social-living-s...

Original Source: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/pakistan-social-and-living-standards...

The results of the Housing survey reveal large gaps in urban and rural areas and within the provinces in almost all indicators. While, 72 percent of households have improved material used for roof & walls. Overall in Pakistan almost 96 percent households use electricity for lighting (91 percent have electricity supply and 5 percent installed solar panels for lighting). As many as 48 percent used gas as main fuel for cooking, while only 37 percent households are using clean fuel for lighting, cooking and heating. Similarly, 94 percent households are using improved water facilities for drinking water which includes (Piped water, motor pump, hand pump, protected well, protected spring, bottle water, tanker/water bearer). Besides, 68 percent have access to toilet facility which is not shared with others.

In terms of food insecurity experience scale, the results reveal that overall in Pakistan 84 percent of the households are food secure while 14 percent percent households reported moderate food insecurity, whereas 2 percent households reported severe food insecurity.

The prevalence of moderate and severe insecurity is highest in Balochistan with 23 percent and lowest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 14 percent. It was informed that during Covid-19 first wave period the same module was used in special survey for evaluating the socio-economic impact of Covid-19 by PBS and had shown 40 percent of households’ experience either moderate or severe food insecurity (30 percent moderate & 10 percent severe). The survey finds 3.4 percent of population to be disable who either cannot at all or face a lot of difficulty in performing their basic functions like seeing, hearing, walking etc. 7.3 percent of population reported some difficulty in performing their basic functions.

Regarding migration, in PSLM survey has found that around 6 percent of population are not living at their place of birth. It is pertinent to mention here that in all provinces, there is more intra province migration (either from one district to another district within same province or from rural to urban) than inter province migration. The same trend is observed in capitals of the provinces as 13.24 percent population in Lahore reported within province migration as compared to only 2 percent from other provinces.

Among six districts of Karachi, district east has the highest percentage of population around 11 percent which migrated from within provinces followed by districts central and Malir while district south has reported highest percentage i.e. 9 percent of population who migrated from other provinces, followed by districts east & central. In Peshawar the trend is of intra province migration than inter province, however in Quetta both inter and intra province migration is of almost same level.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan has exported its first vehicle – made by Master Changan Motors – under the new Auto Industry Development and Export Policy (AIDEP 2021-26), according to a press release issued by the company on Thursday.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2356278/pakistan-exports-its-first-suv...

The press release stated that under the new auto policy, all OEMs would require to initiate vehicle exports to help develop the local industry and expand the export capability of the country. The Changan Oshan X7, which is the country’s first export unit under the new policy, is the first vehicle to be launched through a global RHD premiere earlier in March 2022.

Pakistan is the only country outside of China to produce the latest model of Changan Oshan X7.

The press release quoted the company's CEO Danial Malik in a ceremony in Karachi, “We are delighted and proud to lead Pakistan into a new chapter for the auto industry and make its mark on a global level”.

“The Changan Oshan X7 is the first of many more vehicles to be exported under our vision to stay Future Forward, Forever and the Auto Industry Development and Export Policy (AIDEP 2021-26)”, he added.

The company further added that Pakistan is Changan’s first and only RHD manufacturing base and is helping the brand expand globally.

It added that the state-of-the-art plant was completed in a record time of just 13 months and now has the capacity to produce 50,000 vehicles annually.

“Master Changan is our first RHD production base and we are very happy to export our RHD Oshan X7 SUV from Pakistan”, Steven Zhao – Vice CEO Master Changan Motors Limited stated.

[Riaz Haq]

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd

Auto Sales Data

Apr’22: 22,370 units; +30% YoY; -18% MoM
10MFY22: 227,981 units, +50% YoY


https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1524733313239375873?s=20&am...

[Riaz Haq]

World Bank on Economic Growth in Pakistan: Tweet by Bilal I Gilani on Twitter


Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
Supported by higher growth and the recovery in the manufacturing and services sectors,
the poverty headcount, measured at the lower-middle-income class line of US$3.20 PPP
2011 per day, is estimated to have declined from 37.0 percent in FY20 to 34.0 percent in
FY21.

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1524733313239375873?s=20&am...

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan’s #Manufacturing (LSMI) grew by 26.6% YoY during March 2022 and 10.4% YoY during July-March FY22 as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. #PTI #imrankhanPTI #economy @PTIofficial @ImranKhanPTI https://mettisglobal.news/lsmi-output-records-highest-growth-of-27-...

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1525119740947050497?s=20&...

May 13, 2022 (MLN): Pakistan’s Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) production grew by 26.6% YoY during March 2022 which was the highest YoY increase after May’21, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Thursday.

On a month-on-month basis, the LSMI growth witnessed an increase of 8.2% in the month against the previous month, whereas on average, the LSM grew by 10.4% YoY during July-March FY22 as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.

The growth during the month of March’22 was led by the Furniture, Food, and Apparel sectors as they posted growth of 186.5% YoY, 85% YoY, and 78.6% YoY respectively followed by Other Manufacturing (Football) (64.1% YoY), Wood Products (32.6% YoY), Automobiles (26% YoY), Chemical products (17.1% YoY), Fertilizer (16.9% YoY), Pharmaceuticals (12.6% YoY), Paper & Board (11.6% YoY), Iron & Steel Products (11.2% YoY), Petroleum Products (8.1% YoY), Computer, electronics and Optical Products (6% YoY), Textile (5.1% YoY), Non-Metallic Mineral Products (4.2% YoY), and Rubber Products (0.2% YoY).

While the industries that contracted during the month were Beverages (-6% YoY), Tobacco (-1.4% YoY), Leather Products (-7.6% YoY), Machinery and Equipment (-10.9% YoY), Fabricated Metal (-6.1% YoY), Electrical Equipment (-1.5% YoY), and Other Transport Equipment (-11.7% YoY).

On a cumulative basis, during 9MFY22 out of 22 major industries, 17 posted positive growth while the rest of the 5 industries' witnessed a decline.

The sector-wise performance revealed that the production in Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Chemicals, Automobiles, Iron & Steel Products, Leather Products and Paper & Paperboard sectors have surged by 11.7% YoY, 0.7% YoY, 16.7% YoY, 10.61% YoY, 3.2% YoY, 7.8% YoY, 54.1% YoY, 16.5% YoY, 1.5% YoY, and 8.5% YoY respectively during Jul-March FY22, compared to the performance in Jul-March FY21.

On the other hand, the dismal numbers were witnessed in Pharmaceuticals, Rubber Products, Fabricated Metal, Electrical Equipment, and Other Transport Equipment industries as their production dropped by 0.4% YoY, 20.6% YoY, 7.2% YoY, 1.1% YoY, and 10.2% YoY respectively during 9MFY22.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan LSM (large scale manufacturing) sector grows 10.4% in Jul 2021-Mar 2022


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2356514/lsm-sector-grows-104-in-jul-mar


The economic advisory wing of the finance ministry (now under PMLN), which till March (under PTI) had been predicting around 5% overall growth rate, has suddenly cut the forecast to 4% in its latest publication.

Contrary to that, the Planning Commission expects the growth rate in the range of 5% to 5.4%, which will be higher than the last PTI government’s target for the current fiscal year.

-----------------------

Big industries grew 10.4% during the first nine months of current fiscal year on the back of a low base effect and better output in sugar and apparel sectors, increasing prospects of achieving around 5% overall economic growth in this fiscal year.

Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) industries recorded 10.4% growth during July-March of the ongoing fiscal year over the same period a year ago, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Friday.

PBS data suggested that the increase largely came from the food sector, which has over one-tenth weight in the LSM index and apparel wear, which has 6.1% weight.

The other factor that contributed to the healthy momentum was the low base, as the index was at 126 in March last year, which jumped to nearly 154 this year.

The past year’s trend suggests that the LSM will post higher growth in April and May as well due to the low base effect.

The 10.4% growth during the first nine months of current fiscal year has strengthened the chances of achieving around 5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in this fiscal year ending in June.

The increase in sugarcane and sugar production will offset the 1.5 million tons’ decline in wheat production.

The economic advisory wing of the finance ministry, which till March had been predicting around 5% overall growth rate, has suddenly cut the forecast to 4% in its latest publication.

Contrary to that, the Planning Commission expects the growth rate in the range of 5% to 5.4%, which will be higher than the last PTI government’s target for the current fiscal year.

The National Accounts Committee – the body that works out the growth estimates on the basis of input from the provincial and federal government departments – will meet by the mid of next week to approve the provisional growth rate for fiscal year 2021-22.

The new government has decided to revive the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, which may also result in fiscal and monetary tightening to bring economic stability. This could hurt growth prospects for fiscal year 2022-23.

The previous government had targeted 4.8% economic growth for the current fiscal year. The IMF and other financial institutions have projected Pakistan’s economic growth in the range of 4% to 4.3%, which is a decent rate but nearly half of what is required to create jobs for all new entrants in the market.

The central bank has injected hundreds of billions of rupees into the economy, which provided a fresh impetus to the economic growth but fueled inflation in the country.

The LSM data is collected from three different sources. Data collected by the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) showed that the output of 36 items increased on an average by 2% in the first nine months of current fiscal year.

The Ministry of Industries, which monitors 11 products, reported a 10.3% increase in output during the July-March period. Provincial Bureaus of Statistics reported 12.1% growth in the output of 76 goods, stated the PBS.

On a yearly basis, the LSM sector showed 26.6% growth in March over the same month of last year. However, half of the increase in March output was because of increased production of sugar by the mills.

The industries that posted growth in the first nine months of current fiscal year included textile, which registered 3.2% growth.

The textile industry is the largest sector in the LSM index, having 18.2% weight. The production of apparel wear increased 34% during the first nine months of FY22.

[Riaz Haq]

US offers strong support to rebuild #Pakistan’s #economy. #US “will continue to work bilaterally on ways to grow #investment & #trade opportunities to build a prosperous & stable Pakistan...welcomes the ongoing #IMF deliberations" #BilawalBhuttoZardari https://www.dawn.com/news/1690253

• State Department confirms Blinken will meet Bilawal
• FM says will take Pakistan’s message to UN
• IMF review talks with Pakistan start in Doha today

WASH­­INGTON/ISLAMABAD: Hou­rs after Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari arrived in New York on Tuesday for a series of meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a State Department spokesperson assured Pakistan of strong US support for their efforts to rebuild the Pakistani economy.

The United States “will continue to work bilaterally on ways to grow investment and trade opportunities to build a prosperous and stable Pakistan,” the spokesperson told Dawn in Washington.

The United States also “welcomes the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) deliberations with Pakistan,” the spokesperson added.


Also, IMF sources in Washington confirmed that Pakistan and the IMF would start their review talks in Doha on Wednesday (today) to strike a staff-level agreement for the release of a $1 billion tranche under an Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

The week-long review will be an opportunity for Pakistan to convince the IMF to revive a stalled $6bn package for stabilising its cash-starved economy.

A public expression of US support would boost Islamabad’s efforts to revive the programme and could smooth bullish market trends as well.

The spokesperson also confirmed media reports of a one-on-one meeting between Secretary Blinken and Mr Bhutto-Zardari.

“We confirm Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Bhutto-Zardari will meet one-on-one and cover a number of bilateral concerns in a follow-up to their May 6 call,” the US official said.

Earlier, the foreign minister told journalists in New York that he would share Pakistan’s perspective on various issues with the international community in his UN engagements.

Mr Bhutto-Zardari is attending a UN ministerial meeting of Global Food Security Call for Action and the Security Council’s open debate on maintenance of international peace, with a focus on conflict and food security.

The US mission to the United Nations initiated both meetings to highlight how the Feb 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine was threatening global food security.

“We are here to share Pakistan’s message with the United Nations,” said Mr Bhutto-Zardari while talking to a group of Pakistani journalists at New York’s JFK airport.

The PTI had earlier planned a protest on his arrival but later they canceled the programme. Even PML-N supporters stayed away from the small PPP crowd that gathered at the airport to welcome their leader.

The foreign minister took an Emirates flight, which was delayed by a medical emergency. Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s entourage included a senior official from his ministry and some members of his personal staff. He was received by Ambassador Munir Akram, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, its US envoy Ambassador Masood Khan and other senior officials of the two missions.

Renewal of ties with US

Speaking about Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s maiden official visit to the US, other upcoming overseas trips, and the external policy priorities of the new government at Foreign Office in Islamabad, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar told the media the government was committed to renewal of ties with the US.

She said Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s meeting with Secretary Blinken provides “a useful opportunity” for strengthening bilateral engagement with the US.

[Riaz Haq]

SBP
@StateBank_Pak
Current Account Deficit shrunk to $623mn, in Apr 22; only two-thirds of Mar22 deficit of $1015mn. A rise in workers’ remittances (by $315mn) & a fall in imports (by $246mn) explain this reduction. Cumulatively, CAD reached $13,779mn during Jul-Apr FY22.

https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Balancepayment_BPM6.pdf

https://twitter.com/StateBank_Pak/status/1527350717580660743?s=20&a...