What If There's India-Pakistan Nuclear War?

[Riaz Haq]

Did India really carry out what it claims were “surgical Strikes” across the line of control in Azad Kashmir?

Cartoon by Satish Acharya

Is this just another cooked-up story like the “successful” fake Indian Army Ops in Myanmar and Longewala?

What was accomplished?

Wouldn’t Pakistan have retaliated forcefully if indeed there were incursions by Indian troops in Pakistan?

Wouldn’t that escalate the conflict in South Asia?

Could such escalation spiral into a major nuclear confrontation in the region?

What would be its consequences in terms of loss of life and property in the wider region that is home to more than two billion people?

Has India succeeded in deflecting world's attention away from the Indian military's atrocities in Kashmir?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with Panelists Ali Hasan Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35b6qAITQh8



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What if There's India-Pakistan Nuclear Escalation from Ikolachi on Vimeo.


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[Riaz Haq]

“Get out, the #Pakistanis are coming”: War begun for millions along #India’s border. #Kashmir #Pakistan http://qz.com/798681 via @qzindia


On television, war was still just a possibility on the horizon: generals and news anchors debated whether Pakistan would actually respond to India’s “surgical strike”—a military operation carried out across the border early Sept. 29, reportedly killing scores of Pakistan-backed terrorists.
But for 86-year-old Binder Kaur from Kalu Wala village in Punjab’s Ferozepur district, the war had began the same night when an announcement from the local gurudwara’s speakers told her that it was time to leave.
“It’s happening again,” she cried out to her children, Bibi and Prem Singh, who were wasting time, she said, trying to figure out what the announcement meant: they had to leave, but to where? And for how long?
Without knowing the answers to these questions, how were they supposed to know what to carry?
“My son and daughter don’t know about Partition, or 1971… They have heard stories, but they don’t know what that time was,” Kaur said. “They were too slow, I had to scream – niklo, niklo, Pakistani aa rahein hai.” Get out, get out, the Pakistanis are coming.
Finally, the family gathered its children, a few clothes, three cots, and a wailing mother on a trolley hitched to a tractor, and rode out of the village at 3am. They eventually found shelter 26 km away in Bare Ke.
The family is among the approximately 1,500,000 people who have been displaced following the evacuation of Punjab’s border villages in Amritsar, Tarn Taran, Gurdaspur, Ferozepur, Pathankot, and Fazilka. Some, like Kaur’s family, left their homes in the dead of night. Others were escorted out by army vehicles the next morning, or they just jumped atop buses. The hasty departure, spurred by that short single line—evacuate at once—meant that not a single one of the people who fled their homes left with a plan.

The morning after the evacuation, the media was full of arrangements made for the evacuees, in gurudwaras and schools across the state. Since only villages that fall within a distance of 10 km from the border have been asked to be evacuated, residents there have chosen to remain as close to the 10 km line as possible, in the hope of an early return.
A lucky few have moved in with relatives that don’t mind having guests with no fixed date of departure, and others are living in cramped quarters with the barest of arrangements, waiting for the tensions to ease.

[Riaz Haq]

#Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal questions authenticity of #India’s ‘#surgicalstrikes’ in #Pakistan. #Modi #BJP http://tribune.com.pk/story/1192809/new-delhi-cm-questions-authenti...

KARACHI: Following suspicion raised by international media over India’s claim of carrying out “surgical strikes” against ‘militants’ in the Pakistani side of Kashmir, politicians across the border have now started questioning the authenticity of the incident.

Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal on Monday urged Indian premier Narendra Modi to release evidence of the ‘strikes’ which are still shrouded in mystery. Pakistan has already ripped to shreds the farcical claim as an “illusion being deliberately generated by the Indian to create false effects”.

Claiming that foreign media appears to be backing Pakistan’s claim, Kejrival, a stern critic of Modi, in a three-minute-long video message posted on his Facebook page, said: “My blood boils to see such reports. Pakistan is trying to internationally defame India [therefore] I appeal the prime minister… to expose the propaganda…The nation stands with you…”

The 46-year-old CM and leader of India’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) demanded Modi to release a video footage of the ‘surgical strikes’.

Ground realities belie India’s claims

The development comes two days after after Pakistan Army took local and foreign journalists on a rare visit to forward locations along the Line of Control (LoC). The journalists represented international media outlets, including CNN, BBC, VOA, Reuters, AP, AFP, News Week and BBC Urdu Service. The purpose of the embedded tour was to allow journalists to independently investigate the Indian claim.

The journalists were taken to mainly two spots of Boxor Formation and Hotspring Formation out of the 190-kilometre stretch of the LoC, where India claimed it forces had carried out the ‘strikes’. At both locations, which are about 50 kilometres apart, no signs of destruction or casualties were found except the two Pakistan Army soldiers, who had been killed – one each at the two formations – due to unprovoked firing by Indian forces.

Backtracking: India says no helicopters used in ‘surgical strikes’

India’s state minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore has already accepted that “no aerial operations were included in the operation”. Rathore’s remarks endorsed the version of the army’s media wing, ISPR, which insisted: “there has been no surgical strike by India, instead there had been cross-border fire initiated and conducted by India.”

“There were no aerial strikes,” Indian Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, himself an ex-Indian Army man, told The Hindu during an interview.

Rathore said the Indian Army crossed the Line of Control (LoC) “on the ground” for carrying out what he termed were “pre-emptive strikes”. “That is not like crossing the international border.”

Tensions between the two arch rivals have been boiling since the Indian government accused Pakistan-based militants of launching an assault on an army base in Uri sector of occupied Kashmir last month that killed 18 Indian army soldiers. 

[Riaz Haq]

"Isolated" #Pakistan in 3rd #EU-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue - #European External Action Service! http://europa.eu/!hN86Ff via @EU_Commission

The 3rd Session of the EU-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue was held in Brussels on 4 October 2016 between the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, Federica Mogherini, and Sartaj Aziz, Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on Foreign Affairs.

The two sides welcomed the continued strengthening of relations between the European Union and Pakistan and agreed to elevate their partnership even further. In this respect, they agreed to work on replacing the Five-Year Engagement Plan, adopted in 2012, with an EU-Pakistan Strategic Engagement Plan. Every effort will be made to finalise the new Engagement Plan by the middle of 2017, for approval by the next EU-Pakistan Summit.

Both sides discussed migration and refugees issues. The Pakistan side underlined the need for addressing the root causes of migration and taking an integrated approach encompassing different aspects of migration. The EU acknowledged the challenges faced by Pakistan in hosting over 3 million refugees and is ready to consider providing additional support, including for their repatriation to Afghanistan in safety and dignity. They agreed to further strengthen cooperation on migration issues, including irregular migration, and reaffirmed their commitment to the continued implementation of the EU-Pakistan Readmission Agreement.

The EU side emphasised its continuing support for democratic institutions, electoral reform, the rule of law, economic development and poverty reduction in Pakistan.

The Pakistan side highlighted the steps taken by the Government of Pakistan for the promotion and protection of human rights, including women, children and minority rights. The EU side welcomed these steps, especially the Human Rights Plan of Action adopted by the Government of Pakistan and its decision to strengthen its human rights institutions. Both sides also took note of the first GSP+ progress report. The EU side encouraged continued efforts towards the effective implementation of key human rights conventions.

The Pakistan side highlighted the improved security situation and its positive impact on economic revival and higher investment in Pakistan. The EU acknowledged the significant efforts by the Government of Pakistan and the sacrifices made in the fight against terrorism and reaffirmed EU’s continued support. Both sides committed to further develop their cooperation on Counter-Terrorism, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation. They also agreed to strengthen dialogue on defence matters, including through EU-Pakistan Staff interactions.

On regional security, the EU encouraged Pakistan to continue its efforts in promoting peace in Afghanistan and appreciated Pakistan's support for a successful outcome of the Brussels Ministerial Conference on Afghanistan on 5 October 2016.

The Pakistan side apprised the EU about recent developments in the region, including the current situation in Kashmir. Noting with concern the recent developments, the EU side underlined the need for resolving disputes through dialogue and constructive engagement.

Both sides agreed to further broaden and deepen cooperation under the new Strategic Engagement Plan and discussed matters related to trade, economy and energy. They also agreed to strengthen cooperation in areas such as climate change, research and higher education. Both sides recognised the importance of mutual cooperation in the field of energy and looked forward to holding the first energy meeting still in 2016.

The next EU-Pakistan Joint Commission, to be held in November in Islamabad, will further enhance the dialogue between the two sides.

[Riaz Haq]

#India Army recording fake exercises as evidence for #Kashmir "#surgicalstrikes": #Indian Occupied #J&K legislator
http://www.firstpost.com/india/army-recording-fake-exercises-as-evi...

Amid the growing clamour for making public the evidence of the recent surgical strikes by India on terror launch pads in PoK, controversial Independent MLA Sheikh Abdul Rashid on Wednesday said the Army was video graphing "fake exercises" in Leepa Valley near LoC to offer them as proof for the same.
The MLA from Langate in Kashmir's Kupwara district claimed that since the last three days, the Army was making footage of fake strikes in Leepa Valley in his constituency in order to show them as proof of the surgical strikes.

"Fake targets are being made and I want to tell the whole world that if they show some proof, it is of Leepa and is fake and we can prove it," he said. He alleged that there had been no firing at two of the five places where the Army claimed that it conducted the strikes.
"Two of the five places are in my area. I tried to know from the people and to the best of my knowledge, there has been no firing there for the past 20 days," the legislator said.
Alleging that the surgical strikes were a "drama to divert the attention from Kashmir", which has been reeling under violence for around three months, Rashid asked the Army to not fall into the hands of politicians .
"You (Army) claim to be a credible organisation. You should not enact drama for politicians, by virtue of which your credibility may get lost," he said. The MLA said Pakistan took international media to the LoC to show them that no such strikes were carried out.
If India was truthful in its claims, they would have also done the same, he said. He also asked India and Pakistan not to make Kashmir a "battleground" for their vested interests.

Meanwhile, Union Minister Hansraj Ahir said on Wednesday that the Army has handed over to the government video clips of the cross-LoC surgical strikes as per laid down procedure.

[Riaz Haq]

#Modi hiding behind the blood of jawans, doing 'dalali' of their sacrifice: Rahul Gandhi. #India http://toi.in/mywPGa via @timesofindia

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi on Thursday accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of playing politics over the "blood of jawans" who sacrificied their lives in Kashmir.
Targeting the Prime Minister over the surgical strikes, Rahul said " Jo hamare jawan hain jinhone apna khoon diya hai, Jammu and Kashmir mein khoon diya hai, jinhone Hindustan ke liye surgical strike kiye hain, unke khoon ke peeche aap chhupe hain. Unki aap dalali kar rahe ho. Yeh bilkul galat hai . {You (Modi) are hiding behind the blood of soldiers in Jammu and Kashmir and those who carried out the surgical strikes for India. You are exploiting their sacrifices, which is very wrong}
The Congress leader accused PM Modi of dividing the nation and trying to encash the sacrifice of the jawans.