US Govt Exposes 20X Exaggeration in India's IT Exports to US

[Riaz Haq]

Source: US Government's Bureau of Economic Affairs 

A GAO study showed that U.S. data on offshoring of services to India are more than 20 times smaller than India’s data. What’s the story?

The GAO study showed that U.S. imports from India of business, professional, and technical (BPT) services as published by BEA are substantially lower than India’s data on exports of BPT services to the U.S. (chart 1, left panel).¹ However, when adjusted to a similar conceptual basis using information from the GAO report, the difference is actually quite small (chart 1, center panel). 

The large gap between the U.S. and Indian data mainly reflects differences in how BEA and India define BPT services. BEA data are consistent with international standards for balance of payments accounting; India’s data, which are based on data from an Indian trade association, do not conform to international standards.  In fact, a 2005 study published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that computer services exports (a large component of BPT services) to the U.S. based on international standards are much lower than India’s published data (chart 1, right panel).² In addition, a 2004 report by the OECD found that 97 percent of India’s exports of computer services to large OECD member countries were unaccounted for in those countries’ data on imports.³ 

Depending upon how one adjusts for important definitional differences, the gap between the U.S. and Indian estimates either entirely disappears or is substantially reduced.

Chart 1: U.S. and Indian Data on Trade in BPT Services, 2002 
 
Source: GAO; calculations by BEA

¹ Government Accountability Office, “U.S. and India Data on Offshoring Show Significant Differences,” October 2005.

² Reserve Bank of India, “Computer Services Exports from India: 2002-03,” Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, September 2005.

³ Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Information Technology Outlook 2004, October 2004.

 

What are the reasons for differences between U.S. and Indian data on trade in business, professional, and technical services? 

The U.S. and Indian data on trade in business, professional, and technical (BPT) services are not directly comparable because of substantial definitional differences.  When the U.S. and Indian data are adjusted for definitional differences, the difference in estimates either entirely disappears or is substantially reduced.  Some major definitional differences are:

      Indian workers in the United States.  India’s data on trade in BPT services include services provided by Indian nationals who reside in the United States.  BEA follows international standards for balance-of-payments accounting by excluding the compensation paid by U.S. firms to U.S. residents.  Foreign workers who are in the United States for less than one year are considered to be foreign residents, and typically their earnings are included as compensation of employees (under “income” in the balance of payments accounts).  Workers who are in the United States for more than one year are considered to be U.S. residents, and so their earnings are excluded from the balance of payments accounts.  According to the GAO study, Indian officials acknowledged that temporary Indian workers in the U.S. have accounted for about 40 to 50 percent of their data on exports of BPT services.

 

b)      Sales through affiliated companies.  India’s data on services exports to North America include sales of services to affiliates of U.S. companies located in India or another foreign country, as well as sales by affiliates of Indian companies located in the United States to other U.S. residents.  According to international standards, BEA excludes these sales from U.S. trade in services because the transactions did not occur between a U.S. resident and a non-resident.  A U.S. company’s foreign affiliate that is located in India is an Indian resident, and so its transactions with other Indian residents should not be included in the balance of payments.  Similarly, an Indian company’s affiliate in the United States is a U.S. resident, and so its transactions with other U.S. residents should not be included. According to the GAO study, an Indian official stated that inclusion of sales to affiliates of U.S. companies is “likely a significant factor” accounting for differences between U.S. and Indian data.

 

c)      Sales of goods.  India’s data on trade in BPT services include some sales of goods, such as prepackaged software and software embedded on computer hardware.  The U.S. data on trade in these products are included in the goods trade data, not in the services trade data.  According to the GAO study, Indian officials stated that embedded and prepackaged software account for about 10-15 percent of India’s estimate of exports of BPT services to the U.S.

 

d)      Sales of technology-enabled services.  India’s data on trade in BPT services include some technology-enabled services (such as some financial services).  BEA includes these services in other services categories.

 

e)      Intrafirm trade.  Through 2006, U.S. data for trade in services are collected separately for cross-border trade between unaffiliated companies and for intrafirm (or affiliated) trade.  The surveys that BEA uses to collect data on unaffiliated trade are detailed enough to allow BEA to identify trade in BPT services vis-à-vis India.  Affiliated trade, however, is collected on separate surveys, and data for individual foreign countries that separately identify BPT services are unavailable.  Therefore, reported BEA data for BPT trade with India cannot be directly compared with the Indian data, because BEA’s data for BPT services include only unaffiliated trade and India’s data on BPT services include both affiliated and unaffiliated trade.

 

How did BEA calculate the adjusted data shown in the chart above? 

BEA adjusted both its own estimates and the Indian estimates to eliminate definitional differences between U.S. and Indian data. 

BEA adjusted its own data to include an estimate of affiliated transactions, which are collected on surveys that do not allow for BPT services to be separately identified by individual foreign country. In order to estimate affiliated imports of BPT services from India, BEA used a ratio calculated from global affiliated and unaffiliated imports of BPT services. BEA used the same procedure to estimate affiliated imports of computer services (table 1). 


Table 1: Adjustments to BEA’s data, 2002 
[Millions of dollars] 
 

		BPT Services	Computer Services
Published BEA estimates (based on reported data)
a.	Global imports	33,488	4,315
b.	Affiliated imports	23,940	2,800
c.	Unaffiliated imports	9,548	1,515
d.	Ratio [b/c]	2.51	1.85
e.	Unaffiliated imports from India	288	201
Implied estimates (derived from global ratios)
f.	Affiliated imports from India [d*e]	722	371
g.	Total imports from India [e+f]	1,010	572

Source: BEA. 


Data from India on BPT exports to the U.S. were adjusted to remove the definitional differences with BEA data and international standards as described above. BEA based the adjustments on information provided in the GAO study. Not all differences were quantified in the study, so some differences remain (table 2). 


Table 2: Adjustments to India’s BPT services data, 2002 
[Millions of dollars] 
 

		High estimate	Low estimate
I.	Exports of BPT services (published by India; chart 1, left panel)	6,464	6,464
II.	Adjustments for definitional differences (derived from GAO report):
	a. Indian workers in the U.S.	40%	50%
	b. Sales through affiliated companies	20%	30%
	c. Sales of goods	10%	15%
III.	Total [a+b+c]	70%	95%
IV.	Adjusted Indian estimate of exports of BPT services [I*(1-III)] (chart 1, center panel)	1,939	323

Source: GAO; calculations by BEA. 


The ranges for adjustment factors (a) and (c) were provided by Indian officials and published in the GAO study. The effect of factor (b) was estimated by BEA at 20-30 percent, because the GAO study said that Indian officials thought the effect of this factor was “significant” but that the effect of factor (c) was “insignificant” at 10-15 percent. 

The September 2005 RBI study on Indian sales of computer services provided data that corrected for some definitional differences but the estimates still were not directly comparable to U.S. estimates because the Indian estimates were presented based on trade negotiation categories (i.e., GATS rules) that included sales by Indian-owned companies in the United States to U.S. residents, sales by Indian workers in the United States, etc. BEA used data from the RBI study to calculate a ratio of Indian exports of computer services using balance of payments definitions to total (broadly defined) deliveries of Indian computer services using GATS rules at the global level; this ratio was 39%. In addition, the study provided data on the delivery of Indian computer services (broadly defined) to North America. BEA used the global ratio to estimate balance-of-payments basis exports of computer services to North America. BEA then estimated the portion of exports to North America attributable to the U.S. using information from an Indian software trade association (table 3). 


Table 3: Adjustments to RBI’s Computer Services Data, 2002 
[Millions of dollars] 
 

		India's exports of computer services
a.	Global delivery of services - broad definition	31,133
b.	Global exports - balance-of-payments basis	12,077
c.	Ratio [b/a]	0.39
d.	Delivery of services to North America - broad definition	4,046
e.	Exports to North America - balance-of-payments basis [c*d]	1,569
f.	Ratio (U.S./North America)	0.82
g.	Exports to United States [e*f] (chart 1, right panel)	1,287

Source: RBI; NASSCOM; calculations by BEA. 

 

 

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[Riaz Haq]

Excerpt from PressTV Op Ed 

In major policy circles across the world, India is being hailed as a great success story of globalization, a vibrant nation with growing financial and industrial clout, one of the main protagonists of new economy and new international policy, and a viable counter-weight to China's sudden rise.

These ideas may not be entirely unfounded but they certainly obscure the extent to which old problems persist and are being dug deeper. It won’t be exaggeration to state that the palpable buzz about ‘Incredible India’ is based on many a myths that the cheerleaders of India's growth story often overlook or ignore. 

It might not please many Indians, but notwithstanding the substantial accomplishments made in various fields, India still has a long way to go before taking the mantle of a ‘superpower’ or even jump into the big league. As noted author and columnist Thomas Friedman once remarked, India is a six lane super highway, but full of potholes, cracked cement, and unfinished sidewalks. 

Few years back, London-based independent think-tank Legatum Institute in its report concluded that India's economy is growing rapidly and the country is likely to leapfrog into the league of economic superpowers by 2030. Since then, the global economic recession has led to dramatic developments across the world, posing serious challenges to emerging economies in particular. Though India has managed to stand its ground, but many serious challenges persist on many fronts. 

Some 'sponsored' surveys and reports are painting the rosy picture of India, ignoring many realities that lie underneath the surface. As per the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index, India is the fifth best country in the world for dynamic growing businesses. The index is a reflection of the feasible environment it offers for expansion of businesses. Further, India's economic confidence reached 68 per cent in August 2012, marking a surge of 8 points from previous months, according to 'Ipsos Economic Pulse of the World' survey. As per a study by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd (Deloitte), India is slated to be the second largest manufacturing country in the next five years, followed by Brazil. On the Ernst & Young's (E&Y) renewable attractiveness index, India is perched at fourth position. On the solar index, India is ranked second and on the wind index, it is ranked third, as per the latest study by E&Y and UBM India Pvt Ltd. 

What these surveys tell ypu is that India is a rising power and Goliath and everything about India is hunky-dory. What they don’t tell you is that most of Indian states are mired in world's highest levels of poverty and some human development indicators are among the worst in the developing world. The hype about India as emerging global giant overlooks the simple fact that the growth is not inclusive and superficial to the extent that it is only on the surface and not getting penetrated deep enough to be sustainable and beneficial to all. 


In modern India's context, dualism juxtaposes the hi-tech boom areas with the vast tracts of economy that have barely been touched by post-91 economic reforms. In Indian society, small islands of excellence, prosperity and possibilities are surrounded by a sea of mediocrity, deprivation and discontent. 

India may be a full-fledged capitalist country, a liberal economy and a rising money power, but there are people who still eat grass, sell their children, hawk their kidneys, and commit suicides out of desperation. For every million new entrants to India's burgeoning middle class, there are tens of millions still trapped in grinding web of rural poverty, barely earning a dollar after a back-breaking labor. The Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2010 – a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), ranks India below countries such as Rwanda and Sudan, putting it in the “alarming levels of hunger” range. While the cheerleaders drumbeat about the overall growth, they don’t seem to care about the poorest of the poor. 

Countries like China and Vietnam, like India, have shown sharp growth in GDP rates. But unlike India, they have also succeeded in bringing down the levels of poverty and hunger. The major reasons for that is lack of education, abysmal quality of work, rampant corruption, sloppy implementation of projects and schemes, lack of proactive action in policies and the unchecked population growth. Development models have only created islands of prosperity and oceans of deprivation. 

Some 65 per cent of people in India live on agriculture, which accounts for around 18 per cent of GDP. The World Development Report in 2008 stated that one per cent growth in agriculture is twice more effective in reducing poverty than similar growth in the non-agricultural sector. But lately, the focus hs shifted from agriculture to IT and telecom sectors. 

Gender inequality and malnutrition are highly correlated, and it is no surprise that Global Gender Gap Report 2010 ranked India 112th out of 134 nations worldwide for gender equality. It reminds me of the arithmetic sum we used to solve in school days. It was about a monkey who climbs two feet and slips down one foot in a minute, so in how many minutes will the monkey take to climb a 25 feet pole. India's growth story looks very similar to this interesting monkey sum. 

Leadership, execution and arrogance are some of the nagging problem areas. On leadership, Indians think too small and do not believe in setting big, ambitious goals. The execution and implementation of schemes and plans is pathetic. Arrogance is the most interesting element. For everything, they seem to have an answer. The problems that make this ‘hype’ questionable is the huge population that is yet to fully enjoy the fruits of growth, the challenges of food, energy and ecological security and capability of the institutions to facilitate this leveling of India’s economic landscape. 

Education scenario is dismal. In the QS World University Rankings, Times Higher Education World University Rankings and Academic Ranking of World Universities, India figures nowhere in the world’s top-100 universities. Besides, according to recent World Bank reports, while more than 95 per cent of children attend primary school, just 40 per cent of Indian adolescents attend secondary school (Grades 9-12). So, with the spotlight on India as the higher education hub, this news must come as a shock. 

India may boast of many hi-tech super specialty hospitals, but there are not even primary health centers in most parts of the country. The budget allocation for health is among the lowest in the world. A report in Lancet, the prestigious British medical journal, said that most Indians shell out 78 per cent of their medical bills themselves. The only country worse off as far as private spending on health is concerned is Pakistan, where the figure is 82.5 per cent. The basic problem is infrastructure and support staff and great majority of the population is still deprived of basic healthcare. 

Corruption is a monster. The government machinery is taking the full advantage of its age-old drawbacks and pulling down the country in a big way. Corruption, sycophancy and nepotism are so deep rooted that honest research, innovations and their application is not possible. On one hand, they spend Rs. 70,000 crores on the CommonWealth Games to let the world know that the country has arrived on the big stage; on the other hand, they struggle to provide basic amenities to people living in remotest of villages, the Bharat that India lives in. It is difficult to hide the disparity between real and imagined India. The dichotomy is too ugly, but real. And, I did not even mention the civil liberties and human rights scenario, the tyranny against tribal people in the name of development and dams, discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities and the fierce battle on the ground. That is an entirely different debate for some other day. 

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/04/11/297730/the-myths-about-ind...

[Riaz Haq]

JAKARTA: The Pakistan Software Houses Association for IT & ITES (P@SHA) announced on Sunday that Team Pakistan won 2 Gold Awards and 3 Silver Awards at the Asia Pacific ICT Awards (APICTA) 2014 ceremony held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

The teams won Gold Awards in the Media & Entertainment Technologies and Tertiary Student Categories and Silver Awards in the Startup, Tourism & Hospitality and Tertiary Student Categories.

Leading the way with the Gold were the teams from Eyedeus Labs for their new product “Ingrain” and Syed Osama Maruf of NUST for his product “Smart Steth”.

The Silver Awards were taken by RemoteInterview.io in the Startup Category, EatOye in the Tourism & Hospitality Category and Fawad Ejaz Bhatti of NUST for TRex Tremor Reader in the Tertiary Student Category.

The Awards ceremony was attended by Indonesia's Communications and Information Technology Minister, Rudiantara.

This year’s P@SHA delegation comprised of 30 members with19 technology products competing for the prestigious Awards.

National teams from each economy are selected after a rigorous ICT Awards competition in 17 economies.

The best of the best then compete against each other at a three-day regional event judged by industry professionals, technology veterans and thought leaders from the Asia-Pacific region.

The Pakistani delegation was finalised after the announcement of winners at the P@SHA ICT Awards earlier in November.

International APICTA Judges from 17 economies who evaluated the categories, in which Pakistan participated, spoke about the consistently high standard of technology products presented by Pakistan year after year.

This year Team Pakistan benchmarked its products against 183 products from the region.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1147925/pakistan-picks-up-2-golds-and-3-si...

[Riaz Haq]

Every Aussie who takes an interest in such matters knows how a country goes from being undeveloped to developed. We've been watching our neighbours do the trick for years. It's called export-oriented growth.
It's all about building a big manufacturing sector. You encourage under-employed rural workers to move to the city and take jobs in factories.
Because your one big economic advantage is an abundant supply of cheap labour, you start by concentrating on making low-cost, simple, labour-intensive items such as textiles, clothing and footwear.
Since the locals don't have much capacity to buy this stuff, you concentrate on exporting it. Foreigners will lap it up because to them it's so cheap.

As the plan works and the country's income rises, you plough a fair bit back into raising the education level of your workers, which allows you to move to making more elaborate goods and to paying higher wages. You're on the way to being a developed country.
Over the decades we've seen a succession of countries climb this ladder: Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, China and now even Vietnam and Bangladesh at the bottom. It's like pass-the-parcel: as each country's labour gets too expensive to be used to produce low-value thongs and T-shirts, some poorer country takes over and starts the climb to prosperity.
That's the way it's always done. Except for one country: India. Its economy started growing strongly in the 1990s and now it's the world's third-biggest (provided you measure it correctly, allowing for differences in purchasing power).
India has got this far without building a big, export-oriented manufacturing sector. It's done something that's probably unique: skipped the manufacturing stage and gone straight to the rich-country stage, in which most growth in jobs and production comes from services.
The Indians have done it by being so good with software and other information and communications technology and the things that hang off it, such as call centres. It's a big export earner.
It's an impressive effort, and there's no reason a developing country shouldn't have a big tech sector.
But, even so, the experts are saying India would be a lot better off if it had a bigger, more vibrant manufacturing sector, employing a lot more people who, by Indian standards, would be on good wages. This is a key theme in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's report on the Indian economy, issued this week.
The report offers suggestions on what could be done to encourage the growth of manufacturing, which go a fair way towards explaining why manufacturing never really got going the way it did in other "emerging market economies".
First, some basic facts. India has a population of 1250 million and before long it will overtake China's. About 29 per cent of the population is younger than 15.
Manufacturing accounts for only 13 per cent of India's gross domestic product, which is low compared with the other BRIICS emerging economies Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and China, but not South Africa.
Indian manufacturing probably accounts for a slightly smaller share of its total employment. Huh? It's normally the other way round. You'd expect it to be quite labour intensive. But despite abundant, low-skilled and relatively cheap labour, Indian manufacturing is surprisingly capital and skill intensive, the report says.
Almost two-thirds of manufacturing employment is in companies with fewer than 10 employees. That compares with Brazil's 9 per cent. This tells us the sector's many small firms mean it isn't exploiting its potential economies of scale.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/india-developin...

http://www.oecd.org/economy/economic-survey-india.htm

[Riaz Haq]

India conducted a nuclear test centuries ago; cow urine can cure diabetes and ancient India was adept at genetics and plastic surgery. These and more such incredible achievements datelined ancient India have come from votaries of Hindu culture.

If people with scientific temper are reaching boiling point, in the absence of technology to go back in time to ancient India for verification trips, little noise is being heard from their quarters.

Here is a sample of what is being claimed as 'Indian science'.

Nuking reason
The world acknowledges India has conducted two sets nuclear tests: in 1974 and 1998. Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank, BJP MP from Haridwar and former Uttarakhand chief minister, disagrees. "Today we are talking about nuclear tests. Lakhs of years ago, Sage Kanad had conducted a nuclear test. Our knowledge and science do not lack anything," Nishank told Parliament. Nishank also batted for astrology, saying it is the topmost science in the world. He said our ancient astrologers dwarfed all other sciences.

Cow urine therapy

Promoting cow urine is a priority for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), seen as the BJP's spiritual and ideological guide. It was reported in May that Madhya Pradesh-based promoters of medicines produced using cow urine or 'gau-mutra' hope that a BJP government at the Centre will help their business.

The RSS is keen on promoting a soft drink made from cow's urine, mixed with products such as aloe vera and gooseberry to fight diseases. "Cow urine offers a cure for around 70 to 80 incurable diseases like diabetes. All are curable by cow urine," said Om Prakash, head of the RSS's cow protection department, in 2009.

Faith in astrology
Union HRD Minister Smriti Irani will one day be the country's president: that prediction came from the BJP politician's astrologer in Bhilwara, Rajasthan. "She will become president... in five years," the astrologer told reporters last month after Irani's visit. Irani was asked about her faith in astrology when she is in charge of education. "What I am doing in my personal life is not the responsibility of media to report until and unless it affects my duties," she replied.

Karna a product of genetic engineering

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at the inauguration of a hospital in Mumbai in October, equated birth of Mahabharata's Karna to genetic engineering. He said, "We can feel proud of what our country achieved in medical science at one point of time. We all read about Karna in Mahabharata. If we think a little more, we realise that Mahabharata says Karna was not born from his mother's womb. This means that genetic science was present at that time. That is why Karna could be born outside his mother's womb."

Ganesha plastic surgery

At the same event, Modi also said, "We worship Lord Ganesha. There must have been some plastic surgeon at that time who got an elephant's head on the body of a human being and began the practice of plastic surgery."

Dinanath Batra claims stem cell research invented by an Indian

In his book Tejomay Bharat, Dinanath Batra, convenor of Shiksha Bachao Andolan Samiti, claimed stem cell research was invented by an Indian, Dr Ganpat Matapurkar, who was inspired by the Mahabharata.

Sanal Edamaruku, president of Indian Rationalist Association, said people need to differentiate between "myth and reality. "Myths are there in all parts of the world and in all cultures; if we can't differentiate myth and reality, something is seriously wrong," said Edamaruku in an e-mail from Helsinki.

Article 51A of the Constitution says Indian citizens have the duty to 'develop the scientific temper, humanism and the spirit of inquiry and reform'. It's an article that our elected representatives must remember--they are sworn to uphold the Constitution.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/myths-made-reality-bizarre...

[Riaz Haq]

Despite H-1B lottery, #India body shops dominate H-1B visa use http://www.computerworld.com/article/2954612/it-outsourcing/despite... … via @computerworld

Offshore outsourcing firms that do most of their work in India remain the largest users of the H-1B visa for computer-related jobs, seemingly unaffected by the odds of the visa lottery, according to new data.

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With the exception of a few tech firms -- notably Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle -- the top 25 H-1B-using firms are either based in India or are U.S. firms running large offshore operations.

These firms include Tata Consultancy Services, the leading H-1B user with 7,149 approved visa petitions for last year, and Infosys, which ranked third on the list at just over 4,000 approved visas. Both were major contractors at Southern California Edison, where IT employees were fired as work was shifted to contractors.

HCL, one of the contractors at Disney Parks and Resorts, was approved for just over 900 visas. IT employees at Edison and Disney complained of training their visa-holding replacements prior to losing their jobs. (Disney later said it was canceling its recent IT outsourcing plans).

The IT services firms in the top 25 H-1B using firms accounted for approximately 43% of the 76,272 H-1B approvals in new computer-related jobs only in the U.S. government's fiscal year 2014, which ran from Oct. 1, 2013 to Sept. 30, 2014.

This is the first time we have data broken down by job type, via a federal Freedom of Information Act request. These totals will likely be lower than H-1B totals reported in prior years when Computerworld did not have breakdowns by employment categories. Visa requests for employment changes (as opposed to new employment) are not included in these totals.

The U.S. has been distributing its annual 85,000 H-1B allotment via a lottery because of high demand. This system works against many small U.S. tech firms that make up the bulk of the visa applicants. They must compete against large-volume IT services firms that submit multiple H-1B visa applications to improve their odds of winning the lottery, according to immigration experts.

New computer-related employment last federal fiscal year represented almost 64%, or two out of every three, such visas issued. Other job categories included engineering, medicine, science, law and, yes, modeling. (While rumors persist this is a large use of the H-1B program, in fact there were only 38 visas approved for fashion model new employment last fiscal year).

Computerworld requested but did not receive information about how many of these approvals were not subject to the H-1B cap, as well as a breakdown of approvals by gender and data about wages.

The tally of top H-1B users includes Computerworld analyses to combine various iterations of company names; there were, for example, 64 different versions of Cognizant Technology Solutions, including Cognizant Tech Solns US Corp, Cognizant Technology Solns US Corp and so on. The analysis also combines a company's different divisions and business units -- IBM Corp and IBM India, among others.