Soleimani Was the Hardest of the Hardliners in Iran

[Riaz Haq]

Iran's General Qassem Soleimani was in America's cross-hairs for many years. He was the hardest of the hardliners in Tehran. He was very effective in his role as the head of the elite but ruthless Qods Force which is part of Iran's "Pasdaraan" (Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps). He had made many powerful enemies, both at home and abroad. Some conspiracy theorists are speculating that his assassination was staged by American and Iranian intelligence agencies to get rid of the Iranian general who was getting too big for his boots. American and Iranian Intelligence agencies have cooperated in their common battle against ISIS in recent years. Both sides wanted to eliminate Soleimani for their own reasons but without starting a real US-Iran war.

Soleimani Assassination: 

His assassination on President Donald Trump's orders last week brought Washington and Tehran to the brink of yet another major war in the Middle East as  Iran lobbed over a dozen missiles at two Iraqi airbases housing American troops. The world took a sigh of relief when Trump decided to not escalate the situation. At the same time, conspiracy theorists have speculated that the whole things was staged by American and Iranian intelligence agencies to get rid of the Iranian general who was getting too big for his boots.  American and Iranian Intelligence agencies have cooperated in their common battle against ISIS in recent years. Both sides wanted to eliminate Soleimani without starting a real war.

Soleimani's assassination has raised many questions: Was it just President Trump who wanted the Qods Force chief dead? Are there others, particularly in Teheran, who are privately happy to see him gone? Was the general getting too big for his boots? Did some of the leaders in the Islamic Republic see his growing popularity and arrogance as a threat to their own power?  Let's try and address these questions.

Soleimani's Growing Popularity:

Polling data showed Soleimani was more popular than other major public figures, according to the Center for International Studies at the University of Maryland. It published a survey in 2018 that found Soleimani had a popularity rating of 83%, beating President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif. 

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Soleimani vs Rouhani:

There were reports in 2018 of President Hassan Rouhani lashing out at Soleimani during a meeting with several senior IRGC officers in attendance,  accusing him of hiding the truth from the president and even from the supreme leader. Soleimani left the room in anger. Earlier, when the two met during Friday prayers, Soleimani warned the president about the “folly of not increasing the budget allotted to Quds.”

Soleimani vs Zarif:

Soleimani sat by Imam Khamenei’s side at key meetings, conveying his importance in the eyes of the spiritual leader. He met Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad in February 2019 together with the supreme leader — but without Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, triggering resignation threats by Iran's top diplomat.

Soleimani Threatened Pakistan:

In February, 2019, Soleimani threatened Pakistan. He boasted of Iran's "independent power and honor". He said:

"I warn you not to test Iran and anyone who has tested Iran has received firm response. We are speaking to Pakistan with a friendly tone and we are telling that country not to allow their borders to become a source of insecurity for the neighboring countries..... Iran enjoys independent power and honor. Some countries have wealth, but no prowess. Trump tells the Al-Saud that if it hadn't been for the US support, Saudi Arabia would not have survived and Saudi Arabia's coalitions in the region have all ended in failure."

Soleimani's tone in this message to Pakistan is anything but "friendly".

Soleimani's Global Covert Ops:

In 2012, Indian investigators found that five members of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were involved bombing of a car of the wife of the Israeli defense attache in New Delhi.  IRGC was also allegedly linked to a similar attack in Thailand. The 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina that killed 85 is believed to be IRGC's revenge in part for the 1992 killing of a Hezbollah leader.

Summary:

General Qassem Soleimani was the hardest of the hardliners.  As the head of the powerful and ruthless Qods Force, he made many powerful enemies at home and abroad.  Some conspiracy theorists are speculating that his assassination was staged by American and Iranian intelligence agencies to get rid of the Iranian general who was getting too big for his boots.  American and Iranian Intelligence agencies have cooperated in their common battle against ISIS in recent years. Both sides wanted to eliminate Soleimani for their own reasons but without starting a real US-Iran war. He was part of Mullah regime in Iran that has ruined a great country by unnecessarily challenging the United States which they refer to as "Shaitan Buzurg" (Great Satan). Even their missiles paraded every year in the streets of Tehran have “Marg Bar Amrika” (Death to America)  painted on them. Iranian Ex President Ahmadinejad brought unwanted and unhelpful US attention when he threatened to nuke Israel. Even as Iranians are suffering due to US sanctions and poor governance by mullahs, Solemani was going around spending money supporting Shia militias to establish Iran as regional hegemon. These policies have badly hurt Iran and its people.

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[Riaz Haq]

Who would live and who would die: The inside story of the Iranian attack on Al Asad Airbase - CBS News


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iranian-attack-al-asad-air-base-60-min...

In January 2020, when the U.S. launched a drone strike to kill Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, 2,000 American troops at Al Asad Airbase in Iraq braced for a retaliatory attack. They thought it probably would be a volley of rockets lobbed into their base, each carrying at most a 60-pound warhead.

Instead, Iran began moving ballistic missiles carrying warheads weighing more than 1,000 pounds into place for a full bombardment. An Army intelligence officer gave Major Alan Johnson his assessment of the Iranian threat: "Their intention is to level this base and we may not survive."

Like many Americans on the base, Johnson, 51, turned on his phone to record a final goodbye for his family: "Just know in your heart that I love you," he tearfully told his 6-year-old son. "Bye buddy."

-----------------------------------

Haines, head of the security forces protecting the base, was patrolling in his armored vehicle when the first missile hit just 75 yards away at 1:34 a.m.

It was like "old videos of Hiroshima," Haines said. "The bright light after it exploded, the cloud and the brightness."

The Iranian missiles continued in waves, and Americans left on the ground didn't know when another barrage was coming or where it might land

Johnson was knocked temporarily unconscious by the first blast. "The next thing I recall is our First Sergeant yelling at us . . . 'Everything's on fire. We gotta get out of here!' And that's when I realized, like, the fire was just rolling over the bunkers, you know, like 70 feet in the air . . . It's imperative we get out of the bunker or we're going to burn to death."

Johnson took off across open ground, sprinting for better cover when a loudspeaker blared out another alert: "Incoming! Incoming! Take Cover! Take Cover!" The missiles sounded like freight trains roaring by, he said.

"We get to the next bunker and realize there's roughly 40 people trying to stuff themselves into this bunker that's made for about 10 folks. . . I'm . . . the last person in line. . . and I grabbed the guy in front of me and, like, 'You got to get in the bunker!' and just like – shoved everybody in there."


Army Sergeant Kimo Keltz held his ground in a guard tower on the exposed perimeter of the base. One salvo hit just 30 yards away. Keltz curled into a fetal position to protect his vital organs. The blast wave lifted him two inches off the floor.

When it was over, Keltz and the other Americans emerged from their positions celebrating what seemed to be a miracle – no one was killed and there seemed to be no serious casualties. It would take hours, even days before they realized more than 100 soldiers and airmen suffered traumatic brain injury.

Keltz was one of them "because of how many blasts I took – within such a close radius of me."

Keltz's symptoms were like "someone hitting me over the head with a hammer over and over and over." Doctors have told him he has "concussive syndrome," a condition which may afflict him for the rest of his life.

[Riaz Haq]

Iran first welcomed #Taliban victory but assault on the #PanjshirValley changed #Iran. Iranian media falsely alleged #Pakistan military was assisting Taliban offensive, an allegation had earlier been made in hysterical clown show that is the #Indian media https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1931971#.YUo3sMOIEtw.twitter

by Zarrar Khuro

"Brinkmanship may be a hallmark of Iranian policy but it only works when you know for sure where the brink actually is"

---------

When Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan met Iranian President Seyed Ibrahim Raisi on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Dushanbe, it was perhaps without the bonhomie that would ordinarily accompany such a meeting. But then these are extraordinary times, with the Taliban sweeping to power after the escape of Ashraf Ghani who, from the confines of his ivory tower in Kabul, perhaps imagined that the US would never abandon him and who also made the cardinal sin of believing his own spin.
As the region and the world attempts to reconcile itself with the new reality, Iran seems increasingly discomfited despite initially having welcomed ‘the military defeat and withdrawal of the United States’ from Afghanistan. Soon after the Taliban took Kabul, Iran resumed fuel supplies to Afghanistan in what was seen as an attempt to, if not normalize relations, then to at least not start off on the wrong foot with the new rulers of Kabul. But then once the Taliban assault on the Panjshir Valley began, the messaging from Iran became curious indeed, with Iranian media alleging that the Pakistan military was assisting the Taliban offensive with special forces and drone strikes. This allegation had previously been made in the hysterical clown show that is the Indian media which, true to form, used old footage from air exercises in Wales and Arizona and the occasional video game to illustrate its farcical reports. But even that spectacle was less surreal than seeing Iranian media quoting Fox News (not exactly known for its fair and balanced approach toward Iran) which in turn quoted an anonymous CENTCOM (which is listed as a terrorist organization in Iran) source as the origin of this ‘report.’
Now, one could argue that these are media reports and thus by no means an official state narrative-- but then just a few days back, an Iranian MP repeated the allegation, even going so far as to accuse Pakistan of using Chechen veterans of the Syrian civil war in this alleged assault. Now this is amusing because it’s not so much the pot calling the kettle black, but the pot actually inventing a kettle; if anyone can be accused of using proxy forces as an extension of foreign policy it is Iran, which has used sectarian militias operating under the aegis of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to project power and influence across the Middle East, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. It’s been a rather successful and relatively low-cost strategy, the transnational nature of which was on full display when on September 16, a convoy of Iranian fuel trucks entered Lebanon through Syria and was welcomed by Hezbollah members. A successful strategy begs to be replicated in other theaters and so Iran likely bet on doing the same in an Afghanistan where the Taliban and government forces would remain in a military deadlock for some time to come. In that scenario, not only would Ismail Khan of Herat prove an invaluable asset, but a prolonged conflict may also have provided the opportunity to redeploy the Liwa Fatemiyoun, a militia comprised of Afghan Shias which saw extensive action in Iraq and Syria. Even if that deployment never took place, Iran would still have been able to use the good offices of its main Afghan ally, warlord Ismail Khan of Herat, to project influence in a post-US dispensation.

[Riaz Haq]

Iran first welcomed #Taliban victory but assault on the #PanjshirValley changed #Iran. Iranian media falsely alleged #Pakistan military was assisting Taliban offensive, an allegation had earlier been made in hysterical clown show that is the #Indian media https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1931971#.YUo3sMOIEtw.twitter

by Zarrar Khuro

"Brinkmanship may be a hallmark of Iranian policy but it only works when you know for sure where the brink actually is"

If anyone can be accused of using proxy forces as an extension of foreign policy it is Iran, which has used sectarian militias operating under the aegis of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to project power and influence across the Middle East, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon.

------

Instead, Ismail Khan fled to Iran after surrendering to the Taliban and the quick conclusion to the fighting meant that Iran would gain no strategic depth in Afghanistan the way it had in Iraq and beyond. But that alone cannot explain Iran’s ire toward Pakistan, which it likely sees as having gained influence at Tehran’s expense, and so we must cast a broader net and switch our view from geostrategy to geoeconomics and in particular the future trade routes that may crisscross this region.
Iran’s desire to become the primary trade route through which exports from Afghanistan, and eventually transit trade from Central Asia would reach the world has also seen a setback especially in the context of talks regarding operationalizing the transit trade agreement between Uzbekistan and Pakistan, which would see transit trade being shifted from Iranian ports to Pakistani ports. Not only is that bad news for Bandar Abbas, it’s also yet another blow to Iranian hopes to further develop the Chabahar port, a joint project between Tehran and New Delhi.
Chabahar had already been suffering from delays and had also been seeing declining volumes due to the pandemic. The Taliban takeover then, may prove to be the final nail in the coffin of this already-troubled project and the fate of the transit agreement signed by the Ghani government with India and Iran is also now uncertain. None of this is good news for a cash-strapped Iran.
Despite this, the targeting of Pakistan by Iranian media and officials does seem like a strategic miscalculation, given Iran’s preoccupations in the Middle East. Brinkmanship may be a hallmark of Iranian policy, but it only works when you know for sure where the brink actually is.

[Riaz Haq]

EH
@ejazhaider
FINALLY, ISPR comes up with a pro forma, perfunctory statement on the Kech attk, hours AFTER i wrote my analysis. but missing from all this is a simple fact: BLF, for years, has used Iran's soil for mounting attacks in southwest Balochistan. why are we afraid of that discussion?

https://twitter.com/ejazhaider/status/1486776348223979528?s=20

EH
@ejazhaider
in my public debate with
@mosharrafzaidi
i constantly favoured a proactive CT policy. why wait for attacks on our soil; why not take the war to the enemies in Afghanistan and Iran? i can tell you we have the capability; not sure if we have the balls.

EH
@ejazhaider
ps: are we more engrossed in the Islamabad power politics shit than securing our interests? as i said on
@ZarrarKhuhro
's programme last night, state with balls could take out Mohsin Fakhrezadeh south of Tehran. you wanna deal with Tehran, deal from a position of strength.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan is coming down hard on #Iran! On his recent visit, Iran’s interior minister Ahmad Vahidi was given the message that we know [about the use of Iranian soil by #Baloch insurgents]. If there are more attacks, we will take decisive action. @TRTWorld https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-pakistan-is-coming-down-hard-...

The country’s overstretched patience with its southwestern neighbour is wearing thin over the Baloch insurgency.
In the dead of night on January 25, dozens of militants bearing advanced assault rifles and night-vision devices swooped down on a solitary paramilitary checkpost in Kech, some 180 km from Pakistan’s border with Iran, in the southwestern province of Balochistan. The sudden assault lasted for more than five hours, claiming the lives of 10 Pakistani troopers. The attackers reportedly fled to Iran.

The attack was later claimed by the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), one of the most lethal Baloch separatist groups stoking a decades-long armed struggle against the Pakistan Army, which operates out of southeastern Iran.

While relations between Iran and Pakistan have steadily deteriorated over cross-border militancy in the past few years, analysts assess that the sharp increase in terrorist attacks since last year, mainly in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province, has put the country's security establishment on tenterhooks.

Three days after the attack in Kech, Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency stumbled upon a surprising discovery in the backroom of a money exchange company in Karachi. They found a network funneling millions of rupees from "a foreign intelligence agency" to proscribed militant groups in the country. Thirteen employees were rounded up, and days later, a senior bureaucrat was arrested in connection with the raid.

While the foreign intelligence agency behind the racket was barely identified in press conferences and local media coverage, a senior security official, on condition of anonymity, confirmed to TRT World that it belonged to Iran.

Then, on February 2, a coordinated attack on the paramilitary Frontier Corps headquarters in the towns of Panjgur and Noshki — areas close to the Iran border and the Baloch-majority regions in Afghanistan, respectively —stunned the nation. It took the army three days to clear the sites of the suicide attackers who, it said, were trained in Afghanistan by the Indian intelligence.

On February 14, Iran’s interior minister Ahmad Vahidi arrived in Islamabad for a day-long visit with the Commander of the Iranian Border Guards, Brigadier General Ahmad Ali Goudarzi, among other high-ranking officials.

While Pakistani leadership hailed the historic “brotherly ties” with Iran, privately the delegation was given a stern warning: “He was given the message that we know [about the use of Iranian soil by Baloch insurgents]. If there are more attacks, we will take decisive action,” says the security official, who is privy to details of the meeting.

The tri-border region of Nimroz in Afghanistan, an ethnic Baloch-dominated province straddling Pakistan and Iran in the south, is notorious for its powerful smuggling rackets dealing in weapons, opium, and human trafficking. To its east is the Helmand province, where vast poppy fields feed the global opium trade. This is also the region, along with Kandahar to its east, that welcomed fleeing Baloch brethren when former President General Pervez Musharraf ordered a military operation against Baloch insurgents in 2006. Many Baloch separatist leaders coordinated attacks on Pakistani security personnel and Chinese investments in Balochistan during the Afghan war.

When the Taliban took Kabul last year, they launched a swift crackdown on Baloch refugees and handed over many dissidents to the Pakistani authorities. Many Baloch rebels had already gone into hiding after assassination attempts in Kandahar, allegedly ordered by Pakistani officials over the past two years.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan's arrest of anti-#China militant felt from #Beijing to #Tehran. "Pakistan hopes that China will put pressure on #Iran over the issue of its support of #Baloch militancy" #CPEC #SaudiArabia #India - Nikkei Asia https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Terrorism/Pakistan-s-arrest-of-ant...

Meanwhile, Imam's arrest, the details of which remain a mystery, could have geopolitical implications. Although the BNA says he was caught in Turkey, most experts and security officials interviewed by Nikkei agree he had been operating out of Iran.

Kiyya Baloch believes it is no accident that Imam's detention was announced as Beijing brokers an Iran-Saudi rapprochement. "Pakistan hopes that China will put pressure on Tehran over the issue of support of Baloch militancy through its newly formed role of a peace broker," he added.

Experts say Tehran does not consider anti-Islamabad groups enemies and sees them as potentially useful allies against other hostile groups. But Luke Przybyszewski, president of the Abhaseed Foundation Fund, a Polish group of Middle East experts, said the situation presented by the arrest of Imam has created some room for mediation by Beijing.

"It's not a black-and-white situation in which Beijing would resort to just disciplining Iran," he told Nikkei, "but rather could see this as another diplomatic opportunity to increase its regional role."

Przemyslaw Lesinski, an expert on Afghanistan and Iran at the War Studies Academy in Warsaw, said Beijing would like to see regional proxy conflicts come to an end. "We can be quite certain that China will put pressure not only on Iran but also on other [players] in the region, too," he said, suggesting Beijing would be a beneficiary of security cooperation between Tehran and Islamabad.