Shaheen 3 Can Reach Deep Inside India & Israel and Boost Pakistan's Space Program

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan has successfully tested Shaheen III ballistic missile with 1700 mile range. The intermediate range missile can hit deep inside India and Israel. Its multi-stage solid-fuel technology can also be used to launch satellites into space. It has been jointly developed by the National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM) and the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO). It's the latest example of dual-use technology.

Pakistan Shaheen 3 Missile Range Source: Washington Post

The missile was successfully test-fired into the Arabian Sea on Monday, March 9, 2015, according to the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) which oversees Pakistan’s nuclear program. Announcing the result, General Zubair Mahmood Hayat, the head of SPD, congratulated NESCOM (National Engineering and Scientific Commission) scientists and engineers for “achieving yet another milestone of historic significance.”

Shaheen-III is the latest in the series of the indigenously produced Shaheen-I and Shaheen-II, which had shorter ranges. “The test launch was aimed at validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system at maximum range,” the Pakistani military said in a statement. Pakistani military leaders are trying to maintain a “credible deterrence” as arch-rival India continues to invest heavily in military hardware.

Since the technology used in satellite launch vehicles (SLV) is virtually identical to that used in a ballistic missile, Shaheen 3, the latest enhancement to Shaheen series of missiles, is expected to boost Pakistan's space program as well.  Several nations, including India and Israel recently, have used same rocket motors for  both ballistic missiles and satellite launch vehicles (SLVs).  Israel's Shavit SLV and India's SLV-3 are examples of it.

The success of Shaheen 3 multi-stage solid-fueled ballistic missile is a confirmation of Pakistan's determination to ensure its security AND to pursue its space ambitions at the same time. I congratulate Pakistani engineers and scientists at NESCOM and SUPARCO on their hard work, continuing deep commitment and the latest achievement.

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[Riaz Haq]

U.S. Space Aid to India: On a "Glide Path" to ICBM Trouble?


https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006-03/features/us-space-aid-india....


President John F. Kennedy was once asked the difference between the Atlas space launch vehicle that put John Glenn into orbit and an Atlas missile aimed at the Soviet Union. He answered with a one-word pun: “Attitude.” The established path to a space launch capability for China, France, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States was to adapt a ballistic missile as a space launch vehicle.

India turned the process around, adapt ing a space launch vehicle as a ballistic missile. In the 1980s, India adapted a space launch vehicle, the SLV-3, to become the Agni medium-range ballistic missile. In keeping with India’s practice of describing nuclear and missile programs as civilian until their military character cannot be denied, India originally claimed that the Agni was a “technology demonstrator.” The Agni program now consists of three missiles with ranges, respectively, of approximately 700, 2,000, and 3,000 kilometers.

For nearly two decades, reports have indicated that India sought to use a simi lar tactic to develop an ICBM.[3] It appears, though, that India may have officially begun the ICBM project (commonly known as the Surya, although sometimes also known as Agni IV) in 1994.[4] Reports cite various dates, perhaps because the project has had several decision points.

Reports generally agree that the Surya program will result in several different missiles with ranges from 5,000 to 20,000 kilo meters.[5] It is widely claimed that the Surya will have the option of a nuclear payload, and sometimes the claim is made that the payload will consist of multiple nuclear warheads.

Reports also generally agree that the Surya will be a three-stage missile with the first two stages derived from the PSLV’s solid-fuel rockets. India obtained the solid-fuel tech nology for the SLV-3 and the PSLV from the United States in the 1960s.[6] India is said to be planning for the third Surya stage to use liquid fuel and to be derived either from the Viking rocket technology supplied by France in the 1980s (called Vikas when India manu factured PSLV stages with the technology) or from a more powerful, Russian-supplied cryogenic upper stage for the Geosynchro nous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), which is an adaptation of the PSLV.
If the Surya uses PSLV rocket motors, as is most frequently reported, it will be an enor mous rocket with solid-fuel stages 2.8 me ters (about nine feet) in diameter and a total weight of up to 275 metric tons. This would make it by far the largest ICBM in the world, with a launch weight about three times that of the largest U.S. or Russian ICBMs.

There appears to be no literature on Indian plans to harden or conceal the Surya launch site, which would be difficult to do because of the missile’s size and weight. If a cryogenic third stage is used, the launch process will be lengthy. This means that the Surya is likely to be vulnerable to at tack before launch, making it a first-strike weapon that could not survive in a conflict. Indeed, the Surya’s threatening nature and its pre-launch vulnerability would make it a classic candidate for pre-emptive attack in a crisis. In strategic theory, this leads to “crisis instability,” the increased incentive for a crisis to lead to strategic attacks because of each side’s premium on striking first.

The one report of a mobile ICBM based on a combination of PSLV and Agni technology makes more military sense.[7] Yet, as described below, it entails other serious concerns.
Why would India want the Surya? Its reported ranges suggest the answer.

[Riaz Haq]

The Rehbar series of rockets were launched into the upper atmosphere by Pakistan's Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO). 

 The first rocket in the series, Rehbar-I, was launched on June 7, 1962. 

 This was a unique achievement that even surprised NASA's specialists. 

 Pakistan was the first country in the developing world to launch a rocket. 

 They were the third country in Asia to launch a rocket, after Japan and Israel. 

The Rehbar rocket series was an experimental program that played an important role in Pakistan's development of a missile program. Pakistan's first satellite, Badr-A, was launched on July 16, 1990. 

[Riaz Haq]

The Shaheen-III is a medium-range ballistic missile with a maximum flight altitude of 692 kilometers. It can strike targets up to 2,750 kilometers away.

https://delhidefencereview.com/2022/06/08/pakistans-quest-for-balli....

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The Kármán line is the boundary between Earth's atmosphere and outer space. It's located at an altitude of 62 miles (100 kilometers) above sea level. The Kármán line is the point where conventional aircraft can't fly.
The international community, including the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI), considers space to begin at the Kármán line. NASA and the U.S. military consider space to begin at an altitude of 50 miles (around 80 kilometers).
Space is also defined as the lowest altitude at which satellites can maintain orbits for a reasonable time. This altitude is approximately 160 kilometers (100 miles) above the surface.

[Riaz Haq]

India Made It to the Moon. That Doesn’t Make It a Top #Industrial Power. #Chandrayaan3Landing will not move big roadblocks on #India’s path to becoming a top industrial power. #Modi's “Make in India” hasn’t done much. #MakeInIndia #manufacturing #BJP
https://www.barrons.com/articles/india-moon-landing-industrial-powe...

India took a giant leap into the ranks of advanced industrial nations when its Chandrayaan-3 unmanned spacecraft landed near the moon’s south pole on Aug. 23. At least to hear Prime Minister Narendra Modi tell it. “Science and technology are the foundations of a bright future for our nation,” the 72-year-old Modi, who is favored to win a third term next year, told ecstatic staff at the Indian Space Research Organization, or ISRO.
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Manufacturing’s share of gross domestic product is stuck at about 18%, according to S&P Global. That compares with 28% for China.

Modi’s (not very realistic) target is 25% by 2025. One big obstacle is policy-related: His government remains keen on import tariffs, some of which hit inputs needed to raise exports. “The Indian government has consistently raised tariff and nontariff barriers to protect domestic suppliers across most sectors,” the United States Trade Representative wrote in a recent report.

Another is a lag in transport infrastructure. Indian ports can’t accommodate the biggest container ships, so freight has to be transshipped through Singapore or Hong Kong. “To become the global manufacturing destination of choice, India will need massive upgrades in rail, port, and freight corridors,” write S&P researchers. That won’t happen by gazing at the moon.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan's first private space company, The Rocket & Satellite Company (TRSC), announced that they will launch their first space launch vehicle on August 14, 2025.

https://spacewatch.global/2020/08/the-rocket-and-satellite-company-...(TRSC,Ullah%20Khan%20in%20Karachi%2C%20Pakistan.

The Rocket & Satellite Company (TRSC), Pakistan’s first private Space Company, announced that they will put their first Space Launch Vehicle into orbit on the 14th August, 2025 from Pakistan. TRSC is a private Commercial Space Company, founded by Sami Ullah Khan in Karachi, Pakistan. It will provide advanced and innovative services, solutions and products for the global Space-tech based market, supporting demanding and challenging missions in orbit and beyond.

According to Sami Ullah Khan, CEO of TRSC, “Our vision is to make life of Space companies easy to offer one solutions under one roof, such as services, solutions and products in Ground Segment, Satellites and Payload Launching domain, … great Space tech services, solutions and products at [an] affordable price for Space companies.”

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan successfully test launches indigenously developed rocket system

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-successf...

Pakistan on Tuesday successfully test launched a indigenously developed guided multi-launch rocket system, Fatah-1, capable of precisely delivering conventional warheads deep into "enemy territory."

"The weapon system will give Pakistan Army the capability of precision target engagement deep in enemy territory,"

The Army said the rocket is capable of delivering conventional warheads.

No further details were shared about the rocket system.

President of Pakistan Arif Alvi, Prime Minister Imran Khan, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Nadeem Raza, and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa congratulated the troops and scientists on the successful conduct of flight test.

This was the second flight of Fatah-1, after its first launch in January. At the time, Director General of Pakistan Army, Media Wing, Major General Babar Iftikhar, said Fatah-1 weapon system can hit targets up to a range of 140 km.

[Riaz Haq]

Indian commentator advocates for Israel-like genocidal solution in Kashmir - Muslim Mirror


https://muslimmirror.com/eng/indian-commentator-advocates-for-israe...

On Sunday Indian right-wing commentator Anand Ranganathan called for an Israel-like solution in Kashmir during The Samosa Caucus Podcast hosted by Smita Prakash. Other co-panelists included Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, Sushant, and Tahseen.

“You need an Israel-like solution to Kashmir. The fact that Israel has not been able to ‘solve it’ is not because Israel is not acting to solve it, or Israel is not doing things that should be done. If, for example, seven lakh (700,000) Israelis were driven out of their homes, and Israel had not acted, you would have said ‘Yes, they didn’t solve it,’” Ranganathan stated.



He continued, “Israel has catered for its people who were hard done by, we haven’t! It’s as simple as that. Despite that, yes, there may never be a solution because of the ideology of the people who hate Israelis, and the ideology of the people who hate Hindus. That’s irrespective. What I’m saying is, have we taken the right decisions; we haven’t.”

This is not the first time right-wing Hindu nationalists have invoked the “Israeli-model” as the go-to solution for Indian-occupied Kashmir. In 2019, a former Indian envoy to New York City suggested at a private gathering that India should follow the Israeli settler model in Kashmir.

Anand Ranganathan, an Indian scientist and political commentator known for his crass Islamophobic remarks, is the Consulting Editor of the Hindu nationalist publication Swarajya. He has more than a million followers on X and is known for his vehemently anti-Muslim rhetoric. His remarks on the podcast followed dehumanizing commentary about Kashmir’s “fertility rates” by Abhijit Iyer-Mitra.

“The fertility rates [in Kashmir] cannot support an insurgency,” Iyer-Mitra said casually. The concern over “Muslim fertility” is a deeply ingrained Zionist and Hindu nationalist talking point. In their view, Muslims are not seen as human beings but as “terrorists” or “demographic threats.”

The discussion’s shift from “fertility” to the adoption of Israeli genocidal tactics in Kashmir highlights the troubling nature of such rhetoric. The invocation of Israel’s tactics, which have been widely criticized for their human rights violations, as a model for Kashmir underscores the dangerous and dehumanizing ideologies driving these conversations.

You can watch the entire discussion in full here:

https://youtu.be/gsndXogKXaI?si=80Zel4xbIXSA16yG

[Riaz Haq]

Will US sanctions make any difference to Pakistan’s missiles programme?
Pakistan’s missile programme continues despite six rounds of US sanctions in the past three years, experts say.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/15/will-us-sanctions-make-any...

The sanctions name China-based firms Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Co, Universal Enterprise and Xi’an Longde Technology Development Co, as well as Pakistan-based Innovative Equipment and a Chinese national, for “knowingly transferring equipment under missile technology restrictions”, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

According to the US, the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry (RIAMB) has collaborated with Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC), which Washington believes is involved in developing long-range ballistic missiles for Pakistan.

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Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, said: “China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that have no basis in international law or authorisation of the UN Security Council.”

Missile development continues
The most recent round of sanctions before this one, was announced in April 2024 when Washington blacklisted four companies from Belarus and China for supplying missile-applicable items to Pakistan’s long-range missile programme.

In response to those sanctions, Pakistan’s foreign ministry argued they had been imposed “without any evidence whatsoever” of foreign companies supplying its ballistic missiles programme.

“We reject the political use of export controls,” Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the foreign office spokesperson said in a statement in April, adding that some countries appear to enjoy exemptions from “non-proliferation” controls. It is understood that this refers to increasing cooperation between the US and the Indian defence sector.


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Tughral Yamin, a former military official and senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies Islamabad (IPSI), suggested the sanctions may be more of a tactic by the US to exert pressure on China.

However, he expressed doubt over their effectiveness. “Pakistan’s missile programme has developed to a point where such repeated sanctions will not hamper our progress. We are far beyond that,” he told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has maintained a robust missile programme for decades and has also developed nuclear warheads.

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In Pakistan’s arsenal, the medium-range Shaheen-III, which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and can travel as far as 2,750km (1,708 miles), is the country’s longest-range missile.

“[Pakistan’s] missiles, whether conventional or nuclear tipped, serve as a deterrent against India, and this policy has been transparent and consistent, and the deterrence still holds,” he added.

‘Aggressive stance’
US concerns about Pakistan’s missile programme and possible collaboration with China date back to the early 1990s, said Muhammad Faisal, a foreign policy expert and researcher based in Sydney, Australia.

“But it was during President Obama’s second tenure onwards, where the US officials have been calling on Pakistan to exercise restraint in expanding ranges of its ballistic missiles beyond India’s geographical limits,” Faisal said.

With six rounds of sanctions imposed over the past four years, the Biden administration has taken a particularly aggressive stance in targeting entities it believes are supporting Pakistan’s missile programme, Faisal said.

“The nuclear issue remains an irritant in the US-Pakistan relationship and, despite broader improvement in Islamabad-Washington ties, such periodic sanctioning of entities sends a message that the US will continue to deploy both carrots and sticks in its engagement with Pakistan,” he added.