Pakistani Politicians Poor Record on Human Development

[Riaz Haq]

Data and graphs presented in Economic Survey of Pakistan 2014-15 show that the country has fallen considerably short of achieving UN Millennium Development Goals 2015 (MDG 2015), a set of goals agreed by UN member nations in the year 2000. Key MDG 2015 goals included: halving extreme poverty and hunger from 1990 levels, reducing by two-thirds the child-mortality rate and slashing maternal mortality by three-quarters and achieving universal primary education.

Economic Survey of Pakistan 2014-15 Education Report also shows that the country was poised to achieve MDG goals in years 2001-2008 during President Musharraf's rule. Then came "democracy" in 2008 and human development progress dramatically slowed down.

Primary Enrollment Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan

Youth Literacy Rate Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan

Human development index reports on Pakistan released by UNDP confirm the ESP 2015 human development trends.Pakistan’s HDI value for 2013 is 0.537— which is in the low human development category—positioning the country at 146 out of 187 countries and territories. Between 1980 and 2013, Pakistan’s HDI value increased from 0.356 to 0.537, an increase of 50.7 percent or an average annual increase of about 1.25.

Pakistan HDI Components Trend 1980-2013 Source: Human Development R...

Overall, Pakistan's human development score rose by 18.9% during Musharraf years and increased just 3.4% under elected leadership since 2008. The news on the human development front got even worse in the last three years, with HDI growth slowing down as low as 0.59% — a paltry average annual increase of under 0.20 per cent.

Going further back to the  decade of 1990s when the civilian leadership of the country alternated between PML (N) and PPP,  the increase in Pakistan's HDI was 9.3% from 1990 to 2000, less than half of the HDI gain of 18.9% on Musharraf's watch from 2000 to 2007.

South Asia HDI Trends 1980-2013 Source: Human Development Report 2014

Who's to blame for this dramatic slowdown in the nation's human development? Who gave it a low priority? Zardari? Peoples' Party? Sharif brothers? PML (N)? PML (Q)? Awami National Party? Muttahida Qaumi Movement? The answer is: All of them. They were all part of the government. In fact, the biggest share of the blame must be assigned to PML (N). Sharif brothers weren't part of the ruling coalition at the center. So why should the PML (N) share the blame for falling growth in the nation's HDI? They must accept a large part of the blame because education and health, the biggest contributors to human development, are both provincial subjects and PML(N) was responsible for education and health care of more than half of Pakistan's population.

Why is it that "democratic" governments fail to deliver on human development? Is it just a matter of allocating insufficient funds? Or is it poor governance? Corruption? The answer is "all of the above". Ghost schools that exist only on paper are quite common, especially in Sindh, according to multiple credible reports. The funds allocated for building and staff salaries of these ghost schools are siphoned off by politicians and bureaucrats. Where school buildings do exist, the teachers draw salaries but are often absent. Such teaching positions are filled by untrained people in return for bribes. Many of these allegations against predecessors have been confirmed by by Sindh Education Minister Nisar Kuhro.

Actions of Pakistani politicians of all parties are discrediting democracy and endangering Pakistan's future. They are their own and the country's worst enemies. They must find a way to deliver on socio-economic development to restore ordinary Pakistanis' faith in democracy before it's too late.

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[Riaz Haq]

The new Pakistan Economic Survey 2014-15 while quoting the latest figures pertaining to Pakistan’s Social and Living Standards Measurement  2013-14 says that the literacy rate of the population (10 years and above) is 58 per cent as compared to 60 percent in 2012-13, showing a 2.0 per cent decline.

The data shows that literacy remains higher in urban areas (74 per cent) than in rural areas (49 per cent), and is more prevalent for men (81.0 per cent) compared to women (66.0 per cent) in urban areas. Province wise data suggests that Punjab leads with 61 per cent literacy followed by Sindh with 56 per cent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 53 per cent and Balochistan with 43 per cent.

Gross Enrolment Rates (GER) referred to the participation rate of children attending primary schools divided by the number of children aged five to nine years. GER at the primary level excluding Katchi (prep) for the five to nine years age group at national level during 2013-14 recorded at 90 per cent as compared to 91 per cent in 2012-13. This decline is largely due to  stagnant allocations at 2 per cent of GDP; shortage of schools especially for girls in remote and far flung areas; shortage and absenteeism of teachers; lack of trained teachers, especially female teachers; missing facilities  such as water, toilets and boundary walls; weak supervision and monitoring; and a host of factors such as conservative and tribal culture; insecurity and lawlessness; and poverty, compelling a large number of children to work  rather than to attend school.

A cursory look at the table GER indicates that the only Punjab has shown significant  performance by achieving Primary level GER at 100 per cent against 98 per cent in 2012-13, while other provinces have  performed negatively i.e. Sindh GER declined to 76 per cent in 2013-14 against 81 per cent in 2012-13 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa  also declined to 89 per cent in 2013-14 against 91 per cent in 2012-13, while Balochistan GER also declined from 67 per cent in  2013-14 as compared to 73 per cent in 2012-13.

Net Enrolment Rates (NER) at the primary level refers to the number of students enrolled in primary schools that belong to the five to nine years age group, divided by the number of children in the same age group for that level of education. In Pakistan, the official primary NER is the number of said children attending primary level (1-5) divided by the total number of children aged five to nine.

The net primary level enrolment rates at the national/provincial (excluding prep/Katchi class) level for the age group 5-9 years. NER at the national level during 2013-14 remained at 57 per cent. Province wise comparison reveals that Punjab NER slightly improved to 64 per cent in 2013-14 as compared to 62 per cent in 2012-13 while NER of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remained at 54 per cent. Sindh NER declined to 48 per cent in 2013-14 as compared to 52 per cent in 2012-13; while Balochistan also witnessed a declined to 39 per cent in 2013-14 as compared to 45 per cent in 2012-13. The decline in Balochistan and Sindh enrolment rates is probably due to tribal and feudal social systems, not supportive of education for female and poor classes.

The overall education situation based on key indicators such as likely enrolments, number of institutes and teachers, has depicted a slight improvement. The total number of enrolments during 2013-14 was recorded at 42.1 million as compared to 41.1 million during the same period last year. This indicates an increase of 2.4 per cent and it is estimated to increase to 43.4 million during 2014-15. The number of institutes which stood at 240.9 thousands during 2013-14 as compared to 241.5 thousands during last year. This shows a slightly decline of 0.2 per cent. However, the number of institutes is estimated to increase to 244.9 thousands during 2014-15. The number of teachers during 2013-14 was recorded at 1.53 million as compared to 1.55 million during last year showing a decline of 1.2 per cent.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/06/08/national/pakistan-is-two...

[Riaz Haq]

The post 18th Amendment federal budget exercise remains the same, however, with no changes made to make it clear to the people that most of their concerns and questions regarding what impact the budget will have on their lives should be put to the provincial capitals and not to Islamabad. If the provincial assemblies are unable to respond to the needs of the people then what was the point in devolving power to the provinces?

Today the federal government has fewer resources as well as less authority in social sectors yet the post-budget analysis remains focused on their role. It is odd that when Pakistan’s progress on the Millennium Development Goals is reviewed as a whole it is not the provinces who are asked to explain why these goals have not been met. The point that the communications strategy of the federal government as well as the post-budget analysis has failed to get across is that if there is rampant inflation, lawlessness or a lack of everyday facilities such as drinking water and sanitary services, it is solely the failure of provincial administrations.

For the first time after the 18th Amendment local bodies elections have been conducted in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa only; it is now imperative that budgetary allocations of these two provinces reflect funds for the local bodies. Only this can ensure development to be people-centric and the fruits of democracy to benefit people at the grass-roots level.

The most used phrase in post-budget analysis is undoubtedly ‘pro-poor’; however this term is more relevant for provincial budgets rather than the federal budget. In order to gauge how the country and its people are faring it is imperative that the budgets of the provinces are scrutinised as minutely as the federal budget. Not only should the provinces be generating their own revenues to undertake projects for the wellbeing of the people but also improving their capacity to implement these projects as well as their election promises.

All seven budgets that are presented annually must be prepared after extensive stakeholder consultations so that the allocations reflect the needs of the people in different sectors and districts. Transparency is required not only in the allocation of funds, but also in their utilisation and in order to measure how much of a difference has been made to the lives of ordinary people. The provincial budgets should be presented with as much fanfare as the federal budget and must be scrutinised more than the federal budget.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1188260/big-things-in-small-packages

[Riaz Haq]

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada
@ajpirzada
Doesn't look good for Pak: the human capital index has stayed flat since 2005. While "avg years of schooling" has increased from 4 years in 2000 to 6 years in 2015 (Barro-Lee dataset), the quality has not improved. Worse, the gap with regional countries has increased since 80s.

https://twitter.com/ajpirzada/status/1583239244168200193?s=20&t...