PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network
The Global Social Network
Pakistani-American Banker Heads SWIFT, The World's Biggest InterBank Payments System
Pakistani-American banker Yawar Shah is the Chairman of the SWIFT Board of Directors. SWIFT stands for The Society For Inter-Bank Financial Telecommunications. SWIFT has been in the news recently for cutting off Russian banks to punish Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia is now disconnected from the global financial system used to settle the vast majority of payments in international trade.
 |
| Yawar Shah. Source: SWIFT |
In addition to his role as the Chairman of the SWIFT Board of Directors, Yawar is also a Managing Director in the Institutional Clients Group at Citigroup. Before joining Citigroup, Yawar was at JPMorgan for over 20 years. Positions there have included Global Operations Executive for Worldwide Securities Services, Retail Service and Operations Executive, Chief Operating Officer of the Global Private Bank, and General Manager of the Treasury Management Services business. He received his BA from Harvard College and his MBA from Harvard Business School.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) was founded in 1973 to replace the telex system. It is now used by over 11,000 financial institutions to send secure messages and payment orders. Disconnecting an entire country from SWIFT is considered the nuclear option of economic sanctions, according to South China Morning Post (SCMP). But even limited action can have a big impact. Any bank disconnected from SWIFT will have a very difficult time sending money to other financial institutions, and its customers will struggle to conduct their business.
 |
| US$ Share of SWIFT Payments. Source: Atlantic Council |
 |
| Russian Foreign Currency Reserves. Source: Statista |
 |
| Russia's Attempt to Sanction-Proof Economy. Source: Wall Street Jou... |
 |
| Share of Export Invoicing in US$. Source: Atlantic Council |
South Asia Investor Review
Pakistani-American Health Professional Featured in Netflix Document...
Pakistan is the 3rd Largest Source of Foreign Doctors in America
Pakistani-Americans Largest Foreign-Born Muslim Group in Silicon Va...
Pakistani American Surgeon Transplants Pig Heart in Human
Pakistani-American Woman Named Chief Investment Officer of $1.3 Tri...
Silicon Valley Pakistani-Americans
Pakistani-American Leads Silicon Valley's Top Incubator
Bill Gates, BMW Back Pakistani-American's Battery Startup
Karachi-born Triple Oscar Winning Graphics Artist
Pakistani-American Ashar Aziz's Fire-eye Goes Public
Pakistani-American Doctor Honored By President Obama
Karachi-Born NED Graduate Leads Mercedes Electric Vehicle Entry
Minorities Are Majority in Silicon Valley
Views: 696
-
Comment by Riaz Haq on March 6, 2022 at 4:07pm
-
Russia #finance & #trade unplugged! In just one week, #Western #financial firms severed ties with #Russia, in some cases going beyond #US #EU #sanctions. It’s opened a new chapter in the history of #economic conflict. #Ukraine #NATO https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-ukraine-sanctions-banks-finance... via @WSJ
Two weeks ago, Russia’s companies could sell their goods around the globe and take in investments from overseas stock-index funds. Its citizens could buy MacBooks and Toyotas at home, and freely spend their rubles abroad.
Now they are in a financial bind. Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, another war began to isolate its economy and pressure President Vladimir Putin. The first move was made by Western governments to sanction the country’s banking system. But over the course of the past week, the financial system took over and severed practically every artery of money between Russia and the rest of the world, in some cases going further than what was required by the sanctions.
Visa Inc. V -3.35% and Mastercard Inc. stopped processing foreign purchases for millions of Russian citizens. Apple Inc. and Google shut off their smartphone-enabled payments, stranding cashless travelers at Moscow metro stations. International firms stepped back from providing the credit and insurance that underpin trade shipments.
This unplugging of the world’s 11th-largest economy opens a new chapter in the history of economic conflict. In a world that relies on the financial system’s plumbing—clearing banks, settlement systems, messaging protocols and cross-border letters of credit—a few concerted moves can flatten a major economy.
Russia now faces a repeat of one of the most painful episodes in its post-Soviet history—the financial crisis of 1998, when its economy collapsed overnight. In the decades that followed, Russia earned its way back into the good graces of financiers in New York, London and Tokyo. It is all being undone at warp speed and will not be easily put back together.
The ruble has lost more than one-quarter of its value and is now virtually useless outside of Russia, with Western firms refusing to exchange it or process overseas transactions. Moscow’s stock exchange was closed for a fifth straight day on Friday. The Russian Central Bank more than doubled interest rates to attract foreign investment and halt the ruble’s free fall. Two firms that are crucial to clearing securities trades, Euroclear and DTCC, said they would stop processing certain Russian transactions.
With their interest payments stuck inside the country—following the sanctions, Mr. Putin also ordered intermediaries in Russia not to pay—some Russian companies and government entities could default on their bond payments to international creditors. That could make the country toxic for investing for years. Shares of Russian companies, even those without obvious ties to the Kremlin, were booted from stock-index funds, which will further isolate them from pools of Western capital.
Analysts expect Russia’s economy to contract as much as 20% this quarter, roughly the same hit the British economy took in the spring of 2020 during the pandemic lockdowns.
----------------
Russia began trying to sanction-proof its economy. It built its own domestic payments network—called Mir, Russian for “peace”—to function alongside and, if needed, replace those run by Western firms. It shifted its overseas holdings away from the U.S. and its European allies and toward China, which has been relatively more accommodating of Mr. Putin’s efforts to expand his influence and territory. It doubled its gold reserves.
Those efforts to wall itself off may prove insufficient. At least 40% of Russia’s $630 billion in foreign reserves are in countries that have joined in the latest sanctions. The rest, mostly in China, it is free to spend—but only in China. Moving those reserves out of the country would require first converting them into a Western currency like dollars or euros, which no global bank will do.
-
-
#Russian #metals giant Norilsk Nickel, a key supplier of #nickel and #palladium, might be too big to sanction. Norilsk Nickel is a key supplier of nickel and palladium, two metals that are key for #ElectricVehicle batteries and #semiconductors https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-russian-metals-giant-might-be-too... via @WSJ
From its base at a former Arctic gulag, Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC digs up a large portion of two metals that are essential to greener transport and computer chips.
So far the U.S. and its allies haven’t sanctioned the company, or its oligarch chief executive, underscoring the dilemma some analysts say governments face in seeking to punish Russia without hurting their own access to key commodities.
The mining company is responsible for about 5% of the world’s annual production of nickel, a key component of electric-vehicle batteries, and some 40% of its palladium, which goes into catalytic converters and semiconductors. Nornickel, as the company is known, also supplies energy transition metals such as cobalt and copper.
The price of those metals has jumped since Russia invaded Ukraine amid concerns that Western sanctions or logistical difficulties stemming from the conflict could choke supplies. On Friday, nickel traded at its highest level for a decade, and is up 37% so far this year. Palladium is up around 57% year to date.
Despite the rally in metals prices, Nornickel’s share price—like that of other Russian commodity companies—has dropped, and is down 17% so far this year. The fall is likely to be more severe, given trading in Moscow listed stocks was suspended several days ago as they began to plummet. On Saturday, Fitch Ratings downgraded Nornickel’s debt to junk, reflecting the tougher environment in Russia and weakened financial flexibility of its commodity companies.
Several Western companies say they are looking to diversify their supply away from Nornickel. That mirrors a trend across several commodities, including oil and steel, as Western buyers steer clear of Russian suppliers amid concerns they could be hit by sanctions or simply have problems getting products out of the country.
A spokesman for Nornickel said the miner is committed to fulfilling its obligations to customers, partners and employees. Chie Executive Vladimir Potanin, who also holds a 31% stake in the company, declined to be interviewed.
Western sanctions in response to the current conflict have so far largely avoided companies that provide the West with oil, gas and other key commodities.
Few companies are as pivotal in large commodity markets as Nornickel, particularly for palladium.
“If we have sanctions and we can’t access that palladium, you have to expect disruption globally,” said Gabriele Randlshofer, managing director of the International Platinum Group Metals Association, a trade group whose members include buyers and suppliers of palladium.
“At the moment all companies are looking at [who supplies them], they have to,” she said.
Among the companies looking for alternative supplies of nickel is Outokumpu Oyj, one of the world’s largest stainless steel manufacturers. The Finnish company said around 6% to 7% of its nickel comes from Nornickel, with the rest coming from recycled steel. “Given the situation in Ukraine, we are looking for alternatives for Russian supply for nickel,” a spokeswoman said.
Germany’s BASF SE, meanwhile, said it would fulfill existing contracts with Nornickel but not pursue any new business with the Russian company. The chemicals giant described Nornickel as an important supplier of nickel and cobalt for its production of cathode materials as well as a source of palladium and platinum.
-
-
Russia Sanctions Could Help Undermine Dollar’s Global Status
By George Pearkes of Atlantic Council
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/ukraine-and-dol...
Aggressive use of dollar weaponization has been signaled repeatedly by US policymakers to meet US goals in the current dispute over Ukraine. Though this would severely impact Russia today, negative feedback to dollar sovereignty will be measured in decades rather than years — and will inevitably arrive.
------
Given the power of dollar sovereignty, it feels inevitable that it would be turned into a weapon in a world that is deeply financialized. Global debt – or, equally accurate, global interest bearing assets – topped $300 trillion in 2021 according to the Institute for International Finance. In that context, the ability to restrict access to financial markets is vastly more powerful than it has been historically.There are restraints on the use of weaponized dollar sovereignty against Russia. A maximalist weaponization of the dollar would have a large enough impact on the Russian or other adversary’s economy that standards of living would plummet. While not as overt as a bombing campaign, the effects of a fully weaponized dollar would be severe enough that a bombing campaign would be an apt comparison for the impact on the civilian population. It’s not clear to what degree American policymakers are willing to impose pain on Russia’s civilian population, but it seems unlikely the most aggressive possible use of dollar weaponization and the cost to ordinary Russians it would impose would not create negative feedbacks to the United States.Another obvious restraint is domestic American interest groups. US companies may be users of Russian natural gas, aluminum, or other exports either in the United States or at overseas production facilities. These interests could dissuade US policymakers from using the dollar as a weapon.The weaponized dollar is already a fact of life in global affairs. The governments of Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela can all attest to that fact, as can their civilian populations. In all four countries, dollar sovereignty has been weaponized in a contemporary context. Deeper historical examples abound in Latin America and other parts of the world. At a smaller scale, the wide range of sanctions activity tracked by the Atlantic Council’s Sanctions Dashboard are forms of dollar weaponization as well.It’s only a matter of time before the United States attempts a more aggressive and maximalist use of financial warfare. Whether Russia will be the target after an invasion of Ukraine remains to be seen. However, at least 40 Senators have signaled they favor that course, and the precedent for similar actions from the United States is well established. On January 19th, President Biden said “If they invade, they’re going to pay. Their banks will not be able to deal in dollars”, a reference either to just one of the wide range of dollar weaponization strategies that exist under current law and are being discussed in Congress. While there is no current contender to replace the dollar as the dominant currency in global trade and finance, the weaponization of dollar sovereignty could catalyze a push for a new currency hegemony, or perhaps even a multi-currency global reserve system. Game theorists would call aggressive dollar weaponization for narrow national objectives a “non-credible” threat: a threat to do something a rational actor wouldn’t do, because ultimately it hurts the actor. By using the power of dollar sovereignty, dollar sovereignty risks endangering the reserve status which allows it to be weaponized.Over the foreseeable future of the next decade or so, dollar weaponization will not endanger the US dollar’s unique position as the global reserve currency. The various network effects outlined previously make a near-term shift away from the dollar extraordinarily unlikely. Unfortunately for US policymakers, the long-term is less certain.
-
-
China Considers Buying Stakes in Russian Energy, Commodity Firms
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-considers-...
China Considers Buying Stakes in Russian Energy, Commodity Firms
Beijing’s talking with state-owned firms on opportunities
Any deal is to bolster energy, commodity imports: sources
Bloomberg News
March 8, 2022, 3:31 AM PST
China is considering buying or increasing stakes in Russian energy and commodities companies, such as gas giant Gazprom PJSC and aluminum producer United Co. Rusal International PJSC, according to people familiar with the matter.
Beijing is in talks with its state-owned firms, including China National Petroleum Corp., China Petrochemical Corp., Aluminum Corp. of China and China Minmetals Corp., on any opportunities for potential investments in Russian companies or assets, the people said. Any deal would be to bolster China’s imports as it intensifies its focus on energy and food security -- not as a show of support for Russia’s invasion in Ukraine -- the people said.
The discussions are at an early stage and won’t necessarily lead to a deal, the people said, requesting anonymity as the discussions aren’t public. Some talks between Chinese and Russian energy companies have started to take place, according to separate sources.
CNPC and China Petrochemical -- known as Sinopec Group -- declined to comment, according to the companies’ media officials. Chinese state-asset regulator Sasac, Aluminum Corp. of China and Minmetals didn’t immediately respond to requests for a comment. Representatives for Gazprom and Rusal didn’t immediately comment during a national holiday in Russia.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has increased the pressure on Beijing to secure imports as the cost of energy, metals and food skyrocket to unprecedented levels. Worried about the impact surging prices will have on the economy, China’s top government officials issued orders to prioritize commodities supply security, Bloomberg reported last week.
China has vowed to continue normal trade relations with Russia despite a massive corporate exodus from European and American firms. BP Plc, Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. took the energy industry by surprise by walking away from Russian assets worth billions of dollars.
Meanwhile, China Foreign Minister Wang Yi said earlier this week that China-Russia ties remain “rock solid,” even as Beijing expressed concern about civilian casualties and called for peace talks to end the war. Among China’s current energy investments in Russia, CNPC has a 20% stake in the Yamal LNG project and a 10% state in Arctic LNG 2, while Cnooc Ltd. also owns 10% of Arctic.
The two countries had already been strengthening ties, with Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin last month signing a series of deals to boost Russian supply of gas and oil, as well as wheat. Gazprom and Rosneft PJSC were among Russian energy giants sealing agreements as the two leaders met in Beijing ahead of the Winter Olympics.
Still, any investment in Russia is fraught with risks that go beyond the geopolitical balancing act that Beijing faces. Russia has become a nearly un-investable market for global firms as the nation’s economy rapidly deteriorates. Sanctions have wiped billions of dollars from Russian assets and bonds have plummeted as default risks intensify. The yuan has surged against the ruble, raising questions over the strategic relationship of both countries.
An investment by China could help solidify Moscow’s effort to accelerate a so-called “Pivot to Asia” with oil and gas supply deals. China has doubled purchases of Russian energy products to nearly $60 billion over the last five years.
The Power of Siberia pipeline began sending gas to China in 2019, and Gazprom is already in talks with China over another route that could be signed this year, eventually allowing it to ship fuel from gasfields that supply Europe.
-
-
#US #inflation reached a four-decade high of 7.9% in February 2022, with the war in #Ukraine continuing to apply upward pressure on prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-febr...
A relentless surge in U.S. inflation reached another four-decade high last month, accelerating to a 7.5% annual rate as strong consumer demand collided with pandemic-related supply disruptions.
The Labor Department on Thursday said the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—in January reached its highest level since February 1982, when compared with the same month a year ago. That put inflation above December’s 7% annual rate and well above the 1.8% annual rate for inflation in 2019 ahead of the pandemic.
The so-called core price index, which excludes the often volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 6% in January from a year earlier. That was a sharper rise than December’s 5.5% increase and the highest rate in nearly 40 years.
Prices were up sharply in January for a number of everyday household items, including food, vehicles, shelter and electricity. A sharp uptick in housing rental prices—one of the biggest monthly costs for households—contributed to last month’s increase.
High inflation is the dark side of the unusually strong economy that has been powered in part by government stimulus to counter the pandemic’s impact. January’s continued acceleration increased the likelihood that Federal Reserve officials could speed up a series of interest-rate increases this spring to ease surging prices and cool the economy.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 2% for the first time since mid-2019 on the prospect of tighter monetary policy, while stocks slipped.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, said what started as pandemic-specific inflation has now “broadened out across many, many categories both on the goods side of the economy and on the services side.”
“It reflects supply constraints both in the goods market and the labor market but it also is a function of still strong demand, particularly from U.S. consumers,” she added.
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month, holding steady at the same pace as in December.
Used-car prices continued to drive overall inflation, rising 40.5% in January from a year ago. However, prices for used cars moderated on a month-to-month basis, a possible sign that a major source of inflationary pressure over the past year could be easing.
Food prices surged 7%, the sharpest rise since 1981. Restaurant prices rose by the most since the early 1980s, pushed up by an 8% jump in fast-food prices from a year earlier. Grocery prices increased 7.4%, as meat and egg prices continued to climb at double-digit rates.
Energy prices rose 27%, easing from November’s peak of 33.3%, but a jump in electricity costs was particularly sharp when compared with historical trends.
Higher prices are putting pressure on consumers, with inflation adding as much as $250 a month to living expenses, and businesses, which are scrambling to keep up with rising materials and labor costs.
Alex Mishkit launched her salon, Alex Cher Beauty, a year ago. Since then, she has increased prices to keep up with the rising costs of key supplies. First it was the nitrile gloves, which leapt as much as 30%. Then the price of waxing sticks shot up, followed by the price of wax itself, which rose around 15%.
“To a small-business owner going on her second year, it adds up. So I’m hyper-aware of the slightest increase because every dollar counts,” she said. With overall supply costs running between 10% and 15% more than they were when she opened her doors, Ms. Mishkit in December nervously announced a price increase of around 10%. To her surprise, she said, customers were supportive.
-
-
‘After This War Is Over, Money Will Never Be The Same’: What Credit Suisse’s Shocking Prediction Means For The Bitcoin Price And Crypto
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2022/03/10/after-this-w...
Zoltan Pozsar argues Bretton Woods II crumbled when the G7 countries seized Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. Keeping money inside financial institutions like the IMF was considered risk free. That is clearly no longer the case.
-----------
Credit Suisse: Ensuing New Financial Order Will Benefit Bitcoin
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/credit-suisse%3A-ensuing-new-financ...
The foundations of Bretton Woods II crumbled last week when the G7 seized Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, the investment bank said.
The Russian-Ukrainian war will create a new world financial order from which Bitcoin is set to benefit, according to Credit Suisse.
Zoltan Pozsar, global head of short-term interest rate strategy at the giant investment bank, wrote in a Monday report that Western sanctions on Russia are likely to cause a paradigm shift in the way the world organizes money and reserves, a “Bretton Woods III” kind of scenario.
“From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money, to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money,” the strategist wrote.
Pozsar argues that the fall of Bretton Woods II ensued last week as G7 countries decided to seize Russia’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves, leading to a rise of outside money – reserves kept as commodities – over inside money – reserves kept as liabilities of global financial institutions.
“We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West,” the report states.
Russia, a surplus agent in the financial system, can now no longer make use of the hefty FX reserves it accumulated through its commodity exports over the decades to defend its falling ruble or aid its local economy. Moreover, Russia’s ability to export its commodities has been severely hurt due to the “buyer’s strike” in the West.
“What we are seeing at the 50-year anniversary of the 1973 OPEC supply shock is something similar but substantially worse – the 2022 Russia supply shock, which isn’t driven by the supplier but the consumer,” the strategist wrote. “The aggressor in the geopolitical arena is being punished by sanctions, and sanctions-driven commodity price moves threaten financial stability in the West.”
Pozsar argues that while Western central banks cannot close spreads between Russian and non-Russian commodity prices as sanctions lead them in opposite directions, the People’s Bank of China can “as it banks for a sovereign who can dance to its own tune.”
“If you believe that the West can craft sanctions that maximize pain for Russia while minimizing financial stability risks and price stability risks in the West, you could also believe in unicorns,” Pozsar wrote.
As outside money keeps trumping inside money, this crisis will likely emerge and end differently than all others ever since Nixon broke off the gold standard in 1971 – which marked the end of the era of commodity-based money.
-
-
Tweet
See new Tweets
Conversation
Imran
@emrancaan
@haqsmusings
Zoltan Pozsar head of short-term strategy at Credit Suisse shocked #WallStreet by his report titled Brent Wood III.
After this Crisis, the US #Dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the #renminbi much stronger, backed by #commodities.
#UkraineRussiaWar
https://twitter.com/emrancaan/status/1502456475570032646?s=20&t...
-
-
FT columnist Gillian Tett recently wrote there was “concern that some emerging market funds will dump non-Russian assets to cover losses on frozen Russian holdings,” amid talk that some overleveraged hedge funds had been wrongfooted and “memories of the 1998 collapse of Long-Term Capital Management are being revived.”
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/07/sanc-m07.html
Economic historian Adam Tooze has commented that Russian reserve accumulation, derived from its oil and gas sales, is a source of funding in Western markets and “part of complex chains of transactions that may now be put in jeopardy by the sanctions.”
Longer-term concerns about the future direction of the international monetary system and the world economy are also being raised. An editorial in the Economist headlined “A new age of economic conflict” said the implications of the sanctions on Russia were “huge” and marked a “new era of high-risk economic warfare that could further splinter the world economy.”
One issue that has been raised is that the sanctions, which demonstrate the enormous financial power of US imperialism because the dollar functions as the world’s major currency, will lead to a bipolar financial world—one based on the dollar and the other on the Chinese renminbi.
There is no realistic prospect that the renminbi can assume anything like the dollar’s global role given the fact that the Chinese financial system is controlled by the state while US markets, by contrast, are open and liquid. Furthermore, at present the renminbi is used to finance only 2 percent of world trade. While there are predictions it could rise to 7 percent in the next few years, it is dwarfed by the position of the dollar which finances 59 percent.
However, as the Economist noted, the sanctions will have long-term effects, the implications of which were “daunting.”
“The more they are used, the more countries will seek to avoid relying on Western finance. That would make the threat of exclusion less powerful. It would also lead to a dangerous fragmentation of the world economy. In the 1930s, a fear of trade embargoes was associated with a rush to autarky and economic spheres of influence.”
While the editorial did not make the point, this fracturing was one of the economic driving forces behind the eruption of World War II.
China will no doubt be carefully examining the implications of the Russian sanctions because in a war, or even a conflict over Taiwan or some other issue, the US and Western powers could freeze its $3.3 trillion of foreign reserves. Other countries, such as India, “may worry they are more vulnerable to Western pressure,” the Economist said.
An article by Wall Street Journal writer Jon Sindreu said the sanctions on Russia, which showed that reserves accumulated by central banks can simply be taken away, raised the question of “what is money?”
He noted that, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, scared developing countries sought to protect themselves by accumulating foreign currency holdings, raising them from less than $2 trillion to a record of $14.9 trillion in 2021.
“Recent events highlight the error in this thinking: Barring gold, these assets are someone else’s liability—someone who can just decide they are worth nothing,” Sindreu said.
In the 19th century and into the first part of the 20th, the world financial system operated on the gold standard. This system collapsed with the eruption of World War I and attempts to restore it in the 1920s failed, leading to the breakdown of international trading and financial relations in the 1930s and a return to barter in some cases.
-
-
Banning Russia from SWIFT is a big deal. But the real pain comes from sanctions.
Keeping Russian banks from using SWIFT is not the financial nuclear weapon some have suggested.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/07/swift-sanctions-...
While the United States might fear the growth of new messaging services in the future, this case isn’t likely to bring significant blowback. Russia is unlikely to use alternative financial channels, because the existing ones all have problems. For example, executing transactions over telephone or fax, or by using credit or debit cards that fuse communications technologies with transactions. That’s outdated and will not scale to the degree Russia would need.
Alternative financial communication networks are either in their infancy or depend on the SWIFT network. The Bank of Russia created a financial messaging system (FMS) after the 2014 Ukraine crisis — but it includes only 400 users and therefore isn’t that useful. China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has about three times FMS’s users — but SWIFT includes nearly 10 times as many users as CIPS. What’s more, CIPS isn’t an alternative to SWIFT; it depends on SWIFT for international messaging.
Russian banks not facing sanctions may turn to CIPS. But China may be reluctant to welcome sanctioned banks, lest it jeopardize its use of SWIFT.
---------------
Two days after Russia launched an attack on Ukraine, the United States, Canada and European allies agreed to disconnect a handful of Russian banks from SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. These “de-SWIFTed” Russian banks would no longer be able to use the financial interface to transfer money.
The long-standing, and controversial, threat to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT network has been touted as a centerpiece of the West’s retaliation. How big is it, really? And how will it affect the United States and its use of financial power in the future?
The limits of de-SWIFTing
SWIFT connects more than 10,000 financial institutions in a communications network where orders are sent and received. This messaging service enables participating banks to settle commercial, financial and foreign-exchange payments. Cutting banks off from SWIFT means they can no longer use the network to exchange information.
But keeping banks from accessing SWIFT is not, on its own, the financial nuclear weapon some suggest. Denying access to SWIFT, for example, does not stop banks from communicating or transacting with the 11,000 financial institutions outside the SWIFT network. Disconnected banks that do not face sanctions are free to use alternative messaging networks to settle payments.
In fact, without sanctions on actual money transfers, denying countries access to SWIFT could undermine the messaging service by encouraging users to rely on other financial communication networks.
Today, SWIFT continues to be dominated by major U.S. financial institutions, with 40 percent of recorded transactions occurring in U.S. dollars. Making the U.S.-centered financial order less attractive is precisely the type of collateral damage the United States seeks to avoid.
-
-
Powell Says War May Speed China Moves to Insulate Against Dollar
Fed chief says China has been working on currency matters
Powell says Ukraine war may serve as accelerant to China moves
Powell: Fed Needs to Be 'Nimble' Amid Ukraine CrisisFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Ukraine war could have the effect of accelerating China’s moves to develop alternatives to the current dollar-dominated international payments infrastructure.
Powell was questioned Thursday in a Senate Banking Committee hearing on how China might view the U.S.-led efforts to isolate Russia’s economy, especially by damaging its ability to use the dollar.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/powell-says-war-...
Twitter Feed
Live Traffic Feed
Sponsored Links
South Asia Investor Review
Investor Information Blog
Haq's Musings
Riaz Haq's Current Affairs Blog
Please Bookmark This Page!
Blog Posts
Barrick Gold CEO "Super-Excited" About Reko Diq Copper-Gold Mine Development in Pakistan
Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow says he’s “super excited” about the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold development in Pakistan. Speaking about the Pakistani mining project at a conference in the US State of Colorado, the South Africa-born Bristow said “This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on”, according to Mining.com, a leading industry publication. "It has enormous…
ContinuePosted by Riaz Haq on November 19, 2024 at 9:00am
What Can Pakistan Do to Cut Toxic Smog in Lahore?
Citizens of Lahore have been choking from dangerous levels of toxic smog for weeks now. Schools have been closed and outdoor activities, including travel and transport, severely curtailed to reduce the burden on the healthcare system. Although toxic levels of smog have been happening at this time of the year for more than a decade, this year appears to be particularly bad with hundreds of people hospitalized to treat breathing problems. Millions of Lahoris have seen their city's air quality…
ContinuePosted by Riaz Haq on November 14, 2024 at 10:30am — 2 Comments
© 2024 Created by Riaz Haq.
Powered by
You need to be a member of PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network to add comments!
Join PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network