Pakistan Terrorism Deaths in 2013

[Riaz Haq]

Total number of deaths in Pakistan terrorist violence declined from 6,211 in 2012 to 5,279 in 2013, the lowest since 11,704 fatalities suffered in 2009, according to figures compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal.

Source: SATP

While civilian casualties remained essentially flat--down only slightly from 3007 in 2012 to 3001 in 2013-most of the overall drop from 6,211 to 5,379 occurred in fatalities suffered by the security forces and the terrorists.

Pakistan's biggest province Punjab with more than half the country's population remained relatively unscathed  by terrorist violence with just 81 terror casualties in 2013. By contrast, FATA, Sindh, KP and Balochistan suffered disproportionately  with 1,716, 1668, 936 and 960 terror-related deaths respectively.

Source: SATP

Sindh suffered the most civilian casualties in 2013 with 1285 dead in terrorist attacks. It is followed by 718 in Balochistan, 603 in KP, 319 in FATA and 64 civilian deaths in Punjab. Few terror-related deaths in Punjab, Pakistan's biggest province, appear to be the main reason why terrorism is not seen as a major problem by majority of Pakistanis in public opinion surveys. According to a survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), 42% respondents said electricity is the single most important issue facing Pakistan; while 21% said inflation, 12% said unemployment, 10% said terrorism and 3% each cited law and order, corruption and poverty as the most crucial issue. Only 1% considered gas/petrol shortage as the single most important issue of Pakistan.

Pakistan Savings Rate as Percent of GDP (Source: World Bank)

Pakistan FDI as Percent of GDP (Source: World Bank)

It seems that Pakistan's new prime minister Mr. Nawaz Sharif's agenda is set in response to the surveys like the IRI survey which are heavily influenced by the perceptions of his party's political base in Punjab. While the Sharif government is focusing on the energy and the economy, it is hard to de-link these priorities with action on terrorism. With Pakistan's domestic savings rate at an all-time low of just 4.3% of GDP, the country badly needs foreign direct investment in energy sector to revive the economy. Such foreign investment is unlikely to materialize in a big way without first tackling the scourge of terrorism in the country. What is urgently needed is a comprehensive strategy and a clear plan of action to fight terrorism in a coordinated fashion.

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[Riaz Haq]

Here's a WSJ story on Pakistan PM Sharif offering to talk with the Taliban:

...Mr. Sharif has been trying to bring the Pakistani Taliban, known formally as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, into negotiations since September. The group has said it is interested in dialogue but no substantial talks have taken place while the violence has increased.

Mr. Sharif said Wednesday he formed a four-member committee to steer the renewed effort at talks. For the first time, he also set a condition: that the violence must cease.

"A peaceful solution will be given one last chance," Mr. Sharif told parliament. "Terrorist attacks and peace talks cannot go on together at the same time."

Pakistan's Taliban, which works closely with al Qaeda and is responsible for the killing of thousands of civilians and soldiers, said it welcomed the offer, but would give a detailed response after its leadership meets.

Since Mr. Sharif offered dialogue in September, the group and its allies have blown up a church in the northwestern city of Peshawar, killing more than 80 worshipers, and assassinated an army general. This month it killed at least 34 soldiers in bombings in Bannu in the northwest and in Rawalpindi in the north. Three journalists and three polio vaccination workers were also shot dead in attacks in the southern city of Karachi. On Wednesday, three bombs in Karachi killed at least three paramilitary soldiers.

The Taliban has said that it doesn't accept the Pakistani constitution and wants to turn the country into a strict Islamic emirate.

Senior members of Mr. Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N party acknowledge talks may be futile, but that because of political opposition to a major military offensive, they are giving talks with the Taliban every opportunity.

A military operation would have to target the Taliban's base in North Waziristan, part of the tribal areas, where last week there were limited airstrikes, in retaliation for the latest bombings of soldiers. Washington and Kabul have pressed for an offensive in North Waziristan, which is also a sanctuary for al Qaeda and Afghan militants.

Mr. Sharif made clear he wasn't ruling out an offensive. "We have to win this fight, whether by dialogue or by war," he told parliament.

Imran Khan, a lawmaker who has campaigned for peace talks, and whose party rules the militant-plagued northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said that Mr. Sharif should have secured a halt to U.S. drone strikes in the tribal areas before calling for talks.

In November, a U.S. drone strike killed Pakistan Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud. "Dialogue was sabotaged by drones," said Mr. Khan.

The biggest opposition party, the Pakistan Peoples Party, demanded that a deadline be set for the talks. The party's 25-year-old leader, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, compared the situation to the eve of World War II.

"Support NS [Nawaz Sharif]. I want him to be our Churchill. Unfortunately he is becoming our Neville Chamberlain pursuing policy of appeasement," Mr. Zardari said on Twitter, his usual way of making his views known.

The committee formed for the talks is made up of private citizens who are thought to have influence with the militants, including veteran journalist Rahimullah Yousafzai, former Pakistani ambassador to Kabul Rustum Shah Mohmand, and retired intelligence operative Mohammad Aamir. The current head of Pakistan's Taliban, Mullah Fazlullah, studied at a hard-line religious seminary run by Mr. Aamir's family in northwest Pakistan....

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304428004579350...