Pakistan Sees Double Digit Cement Consumption Growth in January 2013

[Riaz Haq]

Domestic cement consumption surged 10.10% in Pakistan in January 2013, according to All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association. On top of 8% increase in Fiscal Year 2011-12, it jumped another 8% for the first seven months of Fiscal Year 2012-13.

Cement production is an important barometer of national economic activity,  according to a research report compiled by a Credit Suisse analyst.  Last year, CS analyst Farhan Rizvi said in his report that "higher PSDP (Public
Sector Development Program) spending has led to a resurgence in domestic
cement demand in FY12 (+8%) and with increased PSDP allocation for FY13
(+19%) and General Elections due in 2013, domestic demand is
likely to remain robust over the next six-nine months".

Ongoing public sector projects include new large and small dams,
irrigation canals, power plants, highways, rapid transit systems, flyovers, airports, seaports,
etc. Most of these were already in the pipeline when the PPP government
assumed control in 2008. Recent pre-election increases in PSDP funding
allowed work to resume on these projects in 2011-12.

 In addition to public sector infrastructure projects, there is a lot of
privately funded real estate development activity visible in all major
cities of the country.

Ocean Tower Karachi

Among the high-profile new construction projects completed this month is Ocean Tower in Karachi. At 393 feet high with 30 floors, it is now the tallest building in Pakistan. Ocean Tower has a shopping mall, food courts, corporate offices, a business club, car-parking area and 4 cinemas.

The Centaurus Islamabad

The Centaurus, at 361 feet, is another new project in Islamabad completed this month. It consists of three towers---office tower, residential tower and a 5-star hotel. The three will be linked by a shopping mall.

Big real estate developers like Bahria Town and
Habib Construction are developing both commercial and housing projects
in Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore. Other cities like Faisalabad,
Hyderabad, Larkana, Multan, Mirpur, Peshawar and Quetta are also seeing
new housing communities, golf courses, hotels, office complexes,
restaurants, shopping malls, etc.

Per capita cement consumption in Pakistan was only 70 Kg in 2003. It has more than doubled in the last decade.  With back-to-back increases in domestic cement demand, per capita consumption has now risen to 154 Kg which is still below average for Asia. But the rising demand is a good sign of economic recovery since 2009 when the GDP growth hit a low of 1.7%.

Centaurus Mall Opening Day

Credit Suisse is bullish on Pakistan's cement sector in particular and Pakistani shares in general.

CS analyst Farhan Rizvi has initiated coverage with "an OVERWEIGHT
stance, as we believe compelling valuations, improving domestic demand
outlook, better pricing power and easing cost pressures make the sector
an attractive investment proposition. Despite better growth prospects
(3-year CAGR of 17% over FY12-15E) and improving margins, the sector
trades at an attractive FY13E EV/EBITDA of 3.8x, 49% discount to the
historical average multiple of 7.4x. Moreover, FY13E EV/tonne of US$74
is approximately 29% discount to historical average EV/tonne of US$104
and 50% discount to the region".

A New Housing Construction Project in Rawalpindi

Another CS analyst Farrukh Khan, based in Credit Suisse’ Asia Pacific
headquarters in Singapore,says in his research report that “liquidity in 2012 has been concentrated in stocks offering positive
earnings surprises (e.g., United Bank, Lucky Cement, DG Khan Cement and
Bank Alfalah), enabling them to be strong outperformers. With further improvements in
liquidity, we expect a broad-based price discovery to take hold in
attractively valued oil and fertilizer stocks as well.”

 A string of strong earnings announcements by Karachi Stock Exchange
listed companies and the Central Bank's 1.5% rate cut have already helped Karachi's KSE-100 index surge nearly 50% (37% in US $ terms) in 2012 to top all Asian market indices. It was followed by Bangkok's SET index which advanced 36%. It also
easily beat India's Sensex index which was the top performer among BRICs
with 25.19% annual gain.

Related Links:

 Haq's Musings

Pakistan's GDP Grossly Underestimated, Shares Highly Undervalued

Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan

Precise Estimates of Pakistan's Informal Economy

Comparing Pakistan and Bangladesh in 2012

Pak Consumer Boom  Fuels Underground Economy

Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan

Pakistan's Tax Evasion Fosters Aid Dependence

Poll Finds Pakistanis Happier Than Neighbors

Pakistan's Rural Economy Booming

Pakistan Car Sales Up 61%

Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers

Land For Landless Women in Pakistan

Pakistan's Circular Debt and Load-shedding

[Riaz Haq]

Here's Daily Times on KSE-100 setting new records:

KARACHI: Karachi stock market on Wednesday registered yet another record session led by exploration and production (E&P) stocks that poured in sufficient gains for the benchmark to stand strong at historic high.

Analysts said high turnover were witnessed which was 10 months high during the session reflective of growing confidence among investors.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index gained 120.45 points as the KSE-100 share index closed at 17,408.52 points compared to 17,288.07 points of the previous session. The KSE 30-share index was up by 109.15 points to close at 14,232.38 points as compared with 14,123.23 points of the previous session.

The market turnover went up by 33.31 percent and traded 335.61 million shares after opening at 251.75 million shares. The overall market capitalisation surged by 0.41 percent and traded Rs 4.346 trillion compared to Rs 4.328 trillion of the previous session. Gainers beat losers by 202 to 130 while 24 stocks remained unchanged.

Market saw yet another record high crossing 17,400-mark with 10 months high volume of 336 million shares. Market saw aggressive institutional buying in hope caretaker government would soon take charge. Once again telecom sector remained in limelight where WorldCall, Wateen Telecome and Telecard contributing 24 percent of total volume, said Samar Iqbal Equity Dealer at Topline Sec.

The KMI 30-share index gained 319.78 points to close at 30,125.99 points from its opening at 29,806.21 points. The KSE all-share index closed with a gain of 52.35 points to close at 12,263.70 points as against 12,211.35 points.

Husnein Asghar Ali Chief Operating Officer Escorts Capital said in different from various external concerns the local equity market registered yet another record session led by E&P stocks. The telecom sector led by Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) on result sensation and positive impact of rather confusing international incoming call revenues, despite the proposal wrapped by Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) after order from High Court on the intervention of CCOP, along with hefty trade in Engro and Efoods allowed the turnover to stand by the gains. Although presence of values continue to justify gains despite negativity from external factors of the orbit that has seemingly cautioned the short term traders, upcoming monetary policy that continue to stay a valid trigger for the local equities in an otherwise a gloomy external environment, cautious activity is therefore suggested, the stocks likely to advance further despite various visible concerns can be looked for placements, while strength can be looked for sector and stock swapping to maximise the gains.

Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) and DG Khan Cement (DGKC) was indeed high demand led premium in T+2 (ready board) while Feb Forward (T+30) was trading at discount (known as ulta badla), the future spread trading negative offered extra trading gains for the ‘held for trading’ portfolios carrying POL and DGKC.

WorldCall Telecom was the volume leader in the share market with 53.42 million shares as it closed at Rs 3.49 after opening at Rs 2.86 gaining 63 paisas. TRG Pakistan traded 33.85 million shares as it closed at Rs 8.28 from its opening at Rs 7.28 gaining Rs 1.00. Wateen Telecom traded 24.51 million shares and closed at Rs 3.34 compared to its opening at Rs 2.99 gaining 35 paisas. PTCL traded 22.91 million shares as it closed at Rs 20.31 against its opening at Rs 19.39 gaining 91 paisas.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\02\07\story_7-2-2013_pg5_16

[Riaz Haq]

Here's a report Pakistan PM pushing development projects and welfare program as election nears:

DASU - Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf on Friday laid the foundation for construction of Thahkot-Dasu Road and vowed to continue development work for the masses despite opposition.
The road will be 63 kilometres long and would cost Rs 2 billion.
Addressing a gathering after the foundation stone-laying ceremony, the prime minister raised the Hard Area allowance for Kohistan to 40 percent, as was the practice in other areas.
He also directed the WAPDA chairman to immediately fulfil the promises made to the local people and warned of swift action in case of non-compliance.
The PM directed for repair of schools by the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Agency (ERRA) and promised increase in quota of the area in medical and engineering colleges.
Ashraf was earlier briefed about the Thahkot-Dasu Road project that would be completed in 30 months and provide an easy access to the 4,320MW Dasu Power Project besides serving as an alternative route to Karakoram Highway.
The prime minister strongly dismissed criticism against the development projects of the government. “We will not stop serving the masses or stop development work as it benefits them.”
The prime minister also rejected the criticism against the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and said it was a service for the poorest of the poor and would not be allowed to end. He said the people of Pakistan would continue to support this programme through the power of the ballot.
Ashraf said BISP would continue and would be further expanded.
Addressing critics, he said the government would raise the disbursement amount to Rs 5,000 and even Rs 10,000.
The prime minister added that the government did not have time to indulge in mud slinging or to counter the propaganda of the critics, as it was busy in initiating developmental projects for the masses.
“There is no need to teach us what democracy is and how to serve the masses,” he said.
“We are not among those who run away, we will stand up and fight the critics and prove that the people of Pakistan see the PPP as a sign of hope that will not shy from any sacrifice to serve them.”
He said it was his desire to meet the people of Kohistan who were ardent supporters of Pakistan People’s Party. He said he too was an ordinary worker of the PPP and believed in the vision of the martyred leaders - Zufikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/02/09/news/national/pm-vows-to...

[Riaz Haq]

Karachi is now following the example of Lahore to build a mass transit system...a combiatiion of trains (Karachi Circular Railway or KCR) and buses (Bus Rapid Transit or BRT). Here's an ET report:

KARACHI: Progress on the much-awaited Bus Rapid Transport System project is expected to move a step further, when the government awards consultancy rights to a consortium of companies led by the global auditing firm KPMG, officials told The Express Tribune on Monday.

KPMG has been hired as the financial adviser for the project, with the National Engineering Services Pakistan (Nespak) and Mohsin Tayebaly and Company responsible for technical and legal affairs, respectively.

While the formal agreement is expected to be signed in a few days, it would take another 13 months before construction kicks off on the first part of the project, the 22-kilometre-long Yellow Line, which would connect Dawood Chowrangi in Landhi to Numaish in Saddar. Nespak is already undertaking the BRTS project in Lahore, which is near completion.

“Now we would decide what needs to be done with the route. For example, deciding whether there is a need for [creating] an overhead passage at any point,” said an official. “A feasibility study needs to be carried out before we can finalise costing and other financial details. Finally, we will look for an investor.” The Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC) had earlier put the expected cost of the Yellow Line at around Rs2 billion, and set 2014 as its launch year.

The transit system involves dedicated buses lanes, which would crisscross roads and bridges. Around 13,000 passengers are expected to use the system in Karachi every hour, which would cut current travelling time by almost half. Buses will run on reserved tracks, at an average speed of 25 kilometres per hour (kmph), well above the average vehicular speed in the city of 17 kmph....

http://tribune.com.pk/story/502645/firm-that-built-lahores-rapid-tr...

Here's a BR report on KCR:

The ECC which met here under the chairmanship of Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh was informed that Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has already agreed to provide 93.5pc ($2.4 billion) of the estimated cost through soft loan at a markup of 0.2pc payable in 40 years including 10 years grace period. The remaining 6.5pc ($169.6 million) will be borne by the Ministry of Railway (60pc equity), Government of Sindh (25pc equity) and the City District Government Karachi (15pc equity); the stakeholders of KUTC as per their share.

The track of the KCR will be 86 km long with 27 stations to be built around the city.

This important project will be a milestone in improving the quality of life of the citizens....

http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/1-front-top-news/98665-ecc-approv...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's more from ET on Lahore Metrobus:

A total of 45 buses have been imported from Turkey which will be driven by Turkish drivers on a single track in Lahore. The buses will stop at 27 stations that cover the entire Lahore. First station is at Gaju Mata and the last one is at Shaadra.

A one-of-a-kind nine kilometer long flyover has been constructed solely for the metro bus. It connects one end of Lahore with the other. Buses will commute on this flyover. The modern system of electronic ticketing has been introduced at all the stations; waterproof escalators have been installed for the elderly, and a squad for security and maintenance has been appointed.

The stations and the entire route of this larger-than-life metro system are up to international standards. Commuting in Lahore will now become as easy as commuting in London city or Bangkok. The only difference is we will have buses instead of trains and they will be manual instead of electronic.

The inauguration of this mega project is today.

After being postponed a couple of times, Shahbaz Sharif has finally given the confirmed date. For the initial four weeks, the buses will be free for all the commuters. However, the fare is extremely cheap. From what I’ve heard, the cost of a ticket from the first to the last station will be as low as Rs45!

Until now, every feature of this yet-to-function project seems to be perfect, but will it be successful?

Will the squad for maintaining cleanliness and security live up to the expectations?

Will all the 45 buses work efficiently for a long period of time?

Most importantly, how will the masses react to this state-of-the-art system?

http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/16022/lahore-metro-bus-system-a-m...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's Daily Times on 10% increase in overseas remittances in first 7 months of FY2012-13:

KARACHI: Overseas Pakistani workers remitted an amount of $8,206.39 million in the first seven months (July to January) of the current fiscal year 2012-13 (FY13), showing a growth of 10.36 percent or $770.41 million when compared with $7,435.98 million received during the same period of last fiscal year (July to January 2011-12).

The inflow of remittances in July to January 2013 from Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, UK, GCC countries (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman), and EU countries amounted to $2,292.02 million, $1,669.36 million, $1,324.00 million, $1,155.35 million, $941.83 million and $217.89 million, respectively as compared with the inflow of $2,008.47 million, $1,644.34 million, $1,328.31 million, $853.47 million, $845.41 million and $215.64 million, respectively in July to January 2012. Remittances received from Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Japan and other countries during the first seven months of current fiscal year (July to January FY13) amounted to $605.89 million as against $540.34 million received in the first seven months of last fiscal year (July to January FY12).

The monthly average remittances for July to January 2013 period comes out to $1,172.34 million as compared to $1,062.28 million during the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.

An amount of $1,089.64 million was remitted by overseas Pakistanis in January 2013 as against $ 1,110.64 million in the same month of the last fiscal year (January 2012).

In January 2013, the inflow of remittances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, UK, GCC countries (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman), and EU countries amounted to $331.40 million, $208.46 million, $168.46 million, $150.34 million, $130.65 million and $29.12 million, respectively as compared with the inflow of $346.58 million, $ 231.42 million, $178.07 million, $127.12 million, $124.22 million and $26.50 million, respectively in January 2012. Remittances received from Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Japan and other countries during the seventh month of the current fiscal year (January FY13) amounted to $71.21 million as against $76.73 million received in the seventh month of last fiscal year (January 2012).

The continued growth in workers’ remittances is the result of the efforts made by Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI) in collaboration with other stakeholders to facilitate both overseas Pakistanis and their families back home. Since its inception, PRI has taken a number of steps to enhance the flow of remittances through formal channels which include; (a) preparation of national strategies on remittances (b) taking all necessary steps to implement the overall strategy (c) playing the advisory role for financial sector in terms of preparing a business case, relationship building with overseas correspondents, creating separate efficient remittance payment highways and (d) becoming a national focal point for overseas Pakistanis through round the clock call centre with toll free lines, separate web site etc.

It may be recalled that in order to provide an ownership structure in Pakistan for remittance facilitation, the government of Pakistan through State Bank of Pakistan, Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and the Ministry of Finance had launched a joint initiative called PRI in April 2009. This initiative has been taken to achieve the objective of facilitating and supporting faster, cheaper, convenient and efficient flow of remittances.

workers’ remittances :

Saudi Arabia $331.40m $346.58m

UAE $208.46m $ 231.42m

USA $168.46m $178.07m

UK $150.34m $127.12m

GCC countries $130.65m $124.22m

EU countries $29.12m $26.50m

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013%5C02%5C12%5Cstor...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's Emirates 24-7 report on a massive property investment deal between Abu Dhabi Group and Malik Riaz:

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Group and Pakistani real estate tycoon Malik Riaz on Friday signed a deal to invest $45 billion (Dh165.15 billion) in Pakistan including building the world’s tallest building in Karachi.

Pakistan’s news channel Geo reported today that $35 billion (Dh165.15 billion) will be pumped in Sindh province while the rest will be invested in Lahore and Islamabad.

Under the deal, Sports City, International City, Media City, Educational and Medical City will be built in Pakistan’s financial capital. The news channel said that world’s Seven Wonders will also be built as part of the project.

The deal is expected to generate over 2.5 million jobs in Pakistan.

The channel, however, didn’t reveal the time for the completion of the project.

http://www.emirates247.com/business/economy-finance/abu-dhabi-group...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's an AFP story on Pakistan's rising middle class consumption:

In a smart corner of Karachi, a new mall offers wealthy clientele the chance to lunch on an American burger, buy French cosmetics, shop for cocktail dresses, sip an afternoon cappuccino or wolf down a cinnamon roll.

Female sales assistants dressed in jeans and T-shirts buck the idea that “service industry” jobs are unsuitable for women, even if many of them commute into work heavily veiled to avoid being harassed or insulted.

“It is time when Pakistanis are getting branded. It is a new phenomenon,” says Samiullah Mohabbat, the chief executive who brought American franchise Fatburger from Beverly Hills to Karachi, a city troubled by shootings and kidnappings.

“The world has just started coming to Pakistan and this trend will grow.”

---
...the middle class has grown over the last decade. Karachi, the country’s financial hub, Lahore and the capital Islamabad have all seen a surge in Western-style coffee shops, fast-food franchises and new malls.

Karachi’s Dolmen Mall is the newest and flashiest.

There is Spanish fashion favourite Mango, US beauty and home firm Crabtree and Evelyn and British high street staples Mothercare and Debenhams.

---

Mohabbat has invested $7 million in opening Pakistan’s first Fatburger restaurant last month on the second floor of Dolmen Mall, with plans for another in Karachi, two in Lahore and a fifth in Islamabad.

Far from seeing the country’s troubles as a bar to business, Mohabbat says a $5.50 burger is the perfect antidote.

---
At lunch time, his 130-seat restaurant is buzzing. In Beverly Hills, there may be nothing exciting about going out for a burger, but in Karachi the novelty and the relative expense make it a sought-after privilege.

The walls are plastered with large notebook papers scribbled with the experiences of the clients. “Yummilicious,” screeches out one.

There is a scrum at the counters as customers wait their turn. A dozen workers cut and cook imported American beef, slathering it with spices and vegetables, shoving it in a bun and handing it to the waiters.

“It’s certainly quite expensive for the average Pakistani, but I prefer it because I can afford it,” says businessman Masroor Afzal, 44, who works round the corner and says he frequently pops over.

“The beauty of Karachi is that it has everything for everyone. There are many people who can’t afford to eat or shop here, but they have other bazaars.”

Analysts say there is enormous potential in Pakistan as a market for global consumer goods, despite the structural problems in the economy.

According to the finance ministry, 104 million people are aged 15 to 59 and by 2030, 30 percent of the population will be younger than 30.

Khurram Schehzad, head of research at investment firm Arif Habib Securities in Karachi, says consumer spending has grown 26 percent in Pakistan since 2010, compared to seven percent for Asia as a whole.

Business mogul Abid Umer says there is “tremendous potential” for retail.

His Al-Karam Group brought its first foreign franchises – Babyshop from Bahrain and Splash from the United Arab Emirates – to Pakistan in 2005. Today his portfolio has extended to Mango.

“Pakistan is full of aspirational customers,” said Umer.

“Sure, Pakistan has its share of issues but in most cases, day to day life is not affected, plus the tremendous customer response and low cost of operations makes it worthwhile.”

---

Helen Lacey, Debenhams’ senior PR manager, told AFP the company had carried out extensive market research and had “no current security concerns”.

“International brands in Pakistan in general are performing strongly. This is a large and growing market and there is a clear appetite for British brands here and growth potential with a rapidly growing middle class,” she said....

http://dawn.com/2013/03/03/pakistans-middle-class-defies-conservati...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's an excerpt of a Reuters' report on Karachi shares market:

The market's benchmark index continues to soar to record highs -- up 10.34 percent year to date -- fueled in part by expectations May elections will mark Pakistan's first transfer of power from one democratic government to another. Previous civilian governments were all dismissed by Pakistan's ultimate power: the military.

"Pakistan has a lot to offer investors and this is our chance to show it," said Nadeem Naqvi, the KSE chairman. He plans to embark on a series of roadshows for potential foreign partners that will take him to London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong in the coming months.

Many of the companies listed on the KSE offer double-digit returns, low stock prices and resilient business models in this frontier market with a population of 180 million. The index still has an attractive price/earnings ratio of $8.50 despite the soaring returns of the past few years.

Pakistan now has a 4 percent weighting in the MSCI Frontiers Market Index and has become somewhat of a discovery for foreign investors chasing new markets and yields.

THE SEAMIER SIDE

But the KSE's spectacular rise last year can at least be partly attributed to another factor entirely - the cleansing of "black money".

The market took off last year just as a government decree was finalized allowing people to buy stocks with no questions asked about the source of the cash. Average daily volume more than doubled last year to 173 million shares from 79 million in 2011.

Authorities say the measure will bring undocumented funds into the tax net in a country where few pay taxes. But some critics decried it as a gift to corrupt officials and criminals seeking to launder dirty cash.

"Politics and dirty money go hand in hand in Pakistan," said Dr. Ikramul Haq, a Supreme Court lawyer and a professor on tax law.

"People want to be outside the regulatory framework and outside the tax net."

-----
The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) said it found 23 violations of securities laws that merited fines in fiscal year 2011-12 (April/March). The market regulator sent warning letters in another 19 cases, it said in its annual report. (www.secp.gov.pk/)

That's a drop in the bucket, says Ashraf Tiwana, dismissed as head of SECP's legal department after years of clashes with his bosses over fraud in the market. He has petitioned the Supreme Court to replace the SECP chairman and commissioners.

"There's a lot of fraud, a lot of market manipulation ... but not enough action has been taken, especially not enough criminal action has been taken," Tiwana told Reuters. "They're just passing small fines and giving out warning letters."

Regulators are too close to the market, Tiwana said. The head of the stock exchange is a former broker and the two top members of the SECP are former employees of Aqeel Karim Dhedhi, founder of one of the country's biggest brokerage houses.

BIG DHEDHI

Nicknamed "Big Dhedhi" for his ability to move markets, Aqeel Karim Dhedhi heads one of Pakistan's largest domestic conglomerates, the AKD Group.

Lately, the well-known philanthropist and leading member of Pakistan's business establishment has been trying to fend off arrest over allegations of insider trading.

An SECP investigator accused traders, including Dhedhi's brokerage, of buying shares in a state-run Sui Southern Gas Co before an official announcement allowing the company to raise its prices. In the weeks before Sui Southern's announcement, the stock price jumped from 13.5 rupees to 20 rupees, its biggest hike in five years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/09/us-pakistan-stockmarket-i...

[Riaz Haq]

Local sales of the cement industry posted a growth of 9.85% during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, compared with the same period previous year.
Exports, however, recorded a decline by 8.13% compared with exports during the first quarter previous year.
The overall situation during the first quarter of the current fiscal year showed a 4.68% growth compared to the same period last year. Cement dispatches to domestic markets during September 2014 were 2.42 million tons compared with 2.12 million during the same month last year, depicting an increase of 13.86%.
Exports during September 2014 were 730,000 tons against 816,000 tons during September 2013, showing a decline of 10.6%. Total dispatches during September 2014 were 3.15 million tons compared to 2.94 million tons during the same month last year.

According to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Asso­ciation (APCMA), the industry has been struggling against the high duty structure, impractical imposition of maximum retail price (MRP), increasing import duties on coal, increasing power tariffs and axel load restrictions.
Additionally, an added issue for the industry is the growing trend of smuggling from Iran.
Domestic cement uptake in the southern region is being seriously affected due to unregulated smuggling of cement from Iran. Statistics showed that against a 10.8% increase in domestic sales in the northern region, domestic sales in the southern region showed an increase of only 5.4%.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/771101/local-sales-of-cement-industry-r...

[Riaz Haq]

FOR the calendar year 2014, the cement sector, with a market capitalisation of Rs295bn, provided a 70pc return to equity investors — far more than the benchmark KSE-100 index’s return of 27pc.

It marked the third consecutive year where the sector outperformed the broader market. Among cement companies, Kohat Cement Company (KOHC) provided the third-highest return of 97pc, after Pioneer Cement’s 135pc and Lafarge Pakistan’s 134pc.

Nabeel Khursheed, an analyst at Topline Securities, attributed Kohat’s performance to ‘improved production efficiency and swift deleveraging’.

Aizaz Mansoor Sheikh, the company’s CEO, told shareholders that KOHC’s pre-tax profit had grown 20pc to Rs4.38bn in FY14, from Rs3.77bn in the previous year. “Stable coal prices, better cement rates in the local market and growth in dispatch volumes contributed towards improved profitability,” he said.

And Kohat Cement is looking forward to the installation of a 15MW waste heat recovery plant (WHRPP), which is expected to mitigate the rising electricity costs. “The WHRPP is currently under construction, with a projected completion date of June 30, 2015,” the CEO said.

Despite all that, sounds reverberated in the market of spanners being thrown in the works of KOHC. Most sector analysts delivered the bad news of mine owners moving a petition in local courts against the company for non-payment of their dues, which was said to have led to a ban on excavation of essential minerals by the company.

However, the investor panic subsided on Friday afternoon following a clarification by KOHC’s company secretary, Khurram Shahzad, who said in a filing with the stock exchange that “the company has valid leasing rights from the KP government for the excavation of minerals from the leasehold land against payment of royalty and excise duty to the government…. At the present point in time, no stay orders are in the field debarring the company to exercise its valid and legal rights for the excavation of the materials”.

And the company assured investors: “The management is expecting cement dispatches [to] resume at their desirable level from next week”.

Waqar Uddin Salim, an analyst at Summit Capital, anticipates KOHC’s profitability to rise to Rs3.75bn in FY15. The industry’s dynamics remain healthy, with the Topline analyst anticipating cement sales to grow 6.8pc annually in the next three years to reach 21.8m.tonnes by FY17 and exports to rise to 7.9m tonnes per annum. The industry’s capacity utilisation is expected to mount to 89pc.

Meanwhile, Kohat has witnessed a big deleveraging in its balance sheet, with the ratio of long-term debt to total assets dropping to just 1pc in FY14, from a tall 35pc in FY10, and has room to increase capacity utilisation.


http://www.dawn.com/news/1156354/storm-in-a-teacup