Pakistan's Growing Population: Challenge or Opportunity?

[Riaz Haq]

“So where will the children of the future come from? Increasingly they will come from people who are at odds with the modern world. Such a trend, if sustained, could drive human culture off its current market-driven, individualistic, modernist course, gradually creating an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalism - a new dark ages.” ― Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity ...

Fear of Population Bomb:

The above quote captures the true essence of the West's racist fears about what some of them call the "population bomb": East will dominate the West economically and politically for centuries if the growing colored populations of developing Asia and Africa turn the West's former colonies into younger and more dynamic nations with rising education and better living standards.

Much of the developed world has already fallen below the "replacement" fertility rate of 2.1.  Fertility rates impact economic dynamism, cultural stability and political and military power in the long run.

Pakistan Population Growth:

Pakistani women's fertility rates have declined significantly from about 4.56 in 2000 to 2.86 babies per woman in 2014, a drop of 37% in 14 years.  In percentage terms, Pakistan population growth rate has come down from 2.3% in 2000 to 1.6% in 2014, a decline of about 30%. It is being driven drown by the same forces that have worked in the developed world in the last century: increasing urbanization, growing incomes, greater participation in the workforce and rising education.  Pakistan now ranks 65 among 108 countries with TFR of 2.1 (replacement rate) or higher.

Total Fertility Rate Per Pakistani Woman. Source: CIA World FactBook

Pakistan is already the most urbanized country in South Asia and its urbanization is accelerating. Pakistan has also continued to offer much greater upward economic and social mobility to its citizens than neighboring India over the last two decades. Since 1990, Pakistan's middle class had expanded by 36.5% and India's by only 12.8%, according to an ADB report titled "Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present And ...

Pakistan Population Growth in Percentage Terms. Source: World Bank

Pakistan has the world’s sixth largest population, seventh largest diaspora and the ninth largest labor force with growing human capital. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.

With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan is well-positioned to reap what is often described as "demographic dividend", with its workforce growing at a faster rate than total population. This trend is estimated to accelerate over several decades. Contrary to the oft-repeated talk of doom and gloom, average Pakistanis are now taking education more seriously than ever. Youth literacy is about 70% and growing, and young people are spending more time in schools and colleges to graduate at higher rates than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Vocational training is also getting increased focus since 2006 under National Vocational Training Commission (NAVTEC) with help from Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.

Pakistan's work force is over 60 million strong, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. With increasing female participation, the country's labor pool is rising at a rate of 3.5% a year, according to International Labor Organization.

With rising urban middle class, there is substantial and growing demand in Pakistan from students, parents and employers for private quality higher education along with a willingness and capacity to pay relatively high tuition and fees, according to the findings of Austrade, an Australian govt agency promoting trade. Private institutions are seeking affiliations with universities abroad to ensure they offer information and training that is of international standards.

Trans-national education (TNE) is a growing market in Pakistan and recent data shows evidence of over 40 such programs running successfully in affiliation with British universities at undergraduate and graduate level, according to The British Council. Overall, the UK takes about 65 per cent of the TNE market in Pakistan.

It is extremely important for Pakistan's public policy makers and the nation's private sector to fully appreciate the expected demographic dividend as a great opportunity. The best way for them to demonstrate it is to push a pro-youth agenda of education, skills development, health and fitness to take full advantage of this tremendous opportunity. Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity that could be extremely costly for Pakistan and the rest of the world.

Growth Forecast 2014-2050. Source: EIU

In the high fertility countries of Africa and Asia family sizes are continuing to decline. And in low fertility countries family sizes will continue to remain below replacement levels. Why? Because the same juggernaut forces are operating: increasing urbanization, smaller and costly housing, expanding higher education and career opportunities for women, high financial costs and time pressures for childrearing and changing attitudes and life styles.

Source: BBC

Countries With Declining Populations:

115 countries, including China (1.55), Hong Kong (1.17),  Taiwan (1.11) and Singapore (0.8) are well below the replacement level of 2.1 TFR.  Their populations will sharply decline in later part of the 21st century.

 United States is currently at 2.01 TFR, slightly below the replacement rate.  "We don't take a stance one way or the other on whether it's good or bad," said Mark Mather, demographer with the Population Reference Bureau. Small year-to-year changes like those experienced by the United States don't make much difference, he noted. But a sharp or sustained drop over a decade or more "will certainly have long-term consequences for society," he told Utah-based Desert News National.

Japan (1.4 TFR) and Russia (1.6 TFR) are experiencing among the sharpest population declines in the world. One manifestation in Japan is the data on diaper sales: Unicharm Corp., a major diaper maker, has seen sales of adult diapers outpace infant diapers since 2013, according to New York Times.

Median Age Map: Africa in teens, Pakistan in 20s, China, South America and US in 30s, Europe, Canada and Japan in 40s.

The Russian population grew from about 100 million in 1950 to almost149 million by the early 1990s. Since then, the Russian population has declined, and official reports put it at around 144 million, according to Yale Global Online.

Reversing Trends:

Countries, most recently China, are finding that it is far more difficult to raise low fertility than it is reduce high fertility. The countries in the European Union are offering a variety of incentives, including birth starter kits to assist new parents in Finland, cheap childcare centers and liberal parental leave in France and a year of paid maternity leave in Germany, according to Desert News. But the fertility rates in these countries remain below replacement levels.

Summary:

Overzealous Pakistani birth control advocates need to understand what countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are now seeing: Low birth rates lead to diminished economic growth. "Fewer kids mean fewer tax-paying workers to support public pension programs. An "older society", noted the late Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker, is "less dynamic, creative and entrepreneurial."

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[Riaz Haq]

8 takeaways from the population census 2017 results

https://www.samaa.tv/pakistan/2017/08/8-takeaways-from-the-populati...

The provisional results for the 6th Population and Housing Census 2017 of Pakistan are out and here are some takeaways from the facts and figures. 

1. Pakistan's total population has grown by 2.40% since 1998

Ever since the last census was conducted (1998), Pakistan's population has increased from 132,362,279 to 207,774,520, recording an increase of 2.4 percent.

2. Islamabad Capital Territory has recorded the highest population growth rate since 1998



Other provinces or areas of the country have registered growth rates of 2 percent. However, the Islamabad Capital Territory has registered a growth rate of 4.91--the highest among all. It's population has enlarged to 2,006,572 from 805,235 in 1998.

3.  A decline in population growth rate has been observed on the national scale

On a national scale, the population growth rate has seen a decline. Punjab and Sindh have also seen a decline in the population growth rate while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have registered an increase in the population growth rate.

4. Men are more in number than women according to the population census

Men have outnumbered women in the survey. The pie chart below makes it more clearer as men are 51% of the total population, women are 48.76% while transgenders form 0.24%.



The number of men in our population stand at 106.449 million while women stand at 101.314 million. 10,418 have been identified as transgenders in the population.

5. Here's how much of the population is living in urban areas of the country--36.38%



According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the trend of urbanization in Pakistan has seen an increase. In 1998, it was clocked in at 32.52% and has risen to 36.38% in 2017.

6. Urbanization trend has seen the only decline--and a sharp one--in Islamabad Capital Territory



One look at the table and you can clearly witness that the urbanization trend has seen a sharp decline in Islamabad Capital Territory. Back in 1998, 65.72% of the population in Islamabad was living in urban areas and this dropped to 50.58%.

7. In Sindh, more than half the population lives in urban areas





More than half of Sindh's population resides in urban areas of the province. It has seen an increase in percentage as in 1998 48.75% of the population of the province resided in urban areas which swelled to 52.02%.

8. Sindh is the most urbanized province of all as per the results of the census



Sindh is the most urbanized province as more than half (52.02%) of its population resides in urban areas. Islamabad Capital Territory follows in at number 2, Punjab at 3, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 4, Balochistan at 5 and FATA at 6.

[Riaz Haq]

1998 (134 milion) to 2017 (208 million) 2.34%

1981 (84 million) to 1998 (131 million) 2.65%

1961 (43 million) to 1981 (84 million) 3.4% 


http://www.investopedia.com/calculator/cagr.aspx 

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan #Census2017 : Urbanization helps shrink family size from 6.9 per household in 1998 to 6.45 in 2017

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1491353/census-2017-family-size-shrinks/

There are 32.21 million households in Pakistan, bringing the average size of household to 6.45 persons, suggesting that the family size is shrinking in the country because of the rising share of people living independently as well as the declining fertility rate.

The sixth population and housing census results showed that the number of households in Pakistan increased by 13 million or 67.6% against the data compiled 19 years ago. Of the total 32.21 million, as many as 12.1 million or 37.85% of total households are in cities. The number of urban households in all provinces has increased over 100% during past 19 years when the country had the last housing census.

In 1998, there were 19.21 million households and the average size of family was 6.889 persons. Urban households units in 1998 were six million or 31.39% of total households. In 1998, the annual growth rate was 2.69%.

However, over the past 19 years, the annual growth rate was 2.4% — the lowest since 1981. This resulted in slight shrinkage in the size of household.

The latest housing census showed that there were 3.85 million households in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – higher by 1.64 million or 74.2% over 19 years ago. The share of urban households in total units increased from 16.74% to about one-fourth. However, the urban households doubled in the past 19 years.

In FATA, households increased from 340,000 to 560,000 – an increase of 64.7%. Urban households in FATA have increased to 200,000 or 35.7% of the total households of the region.

In Punjab, the number of households now stands at 17.1 million – an increase of 6.56 million units or 62.2%. Urban units stand at 6.4 million or 37.37% of the total households in the province. Urban units have doubled over the past 19 years. Punjab’s households are 53% of the national housing units.

In Sindh, there are 8.59 million households – an addition of 3.57 million units or 71.2% more than the previous census. The share of urban housing units currently stands at 51.22% in total provincial households, matching the province’s urban population. In absolute terms, urban households in Sindh stand at 4.4 million.

In Balochistan there are 1.78 million housing units – an addition of 810,000 or 83.5% over the past 19 years. The urban units stood at 470,000 or 26.4% of the province’s total households.

In Islamabad, total households remain 340,000, higher by 280,000 units, registering a 215% growth in the past 19 years. Urban units in Islamabad stand at 170,000 – half of the total units of the federal capital territory. In 1998, the share of urban households was 69.2%, which has since declined because of high cost of living in notified urban areas.

[Riaz Haq]

SOUND BYTES: Movement towards urban centres is significant: Rais

https://www.dawn.com/news/1354148/sound-bytes-movement-towards-urba...

ACCORDING to the provisional figures of the sixth national census conducted in May, Pakistan’s population today stands at 207.77 million with an annual growth rate of 2.4 per cent.

The census, conducted after 19 years, shows that the Islamabad Capital Territory has witnessed the highest population growth rate of 4.91pc. Balochistan has a growth rate of 3.37pc, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 2.89pc, Sindh 2.41pc and Punjab 2.13pc.

It also shows that the number of females is lower, at 101.3m, than males, at 106.449m.

We spoke to Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), to assess what these basic population figures mean for the development of the country. Here is what he says.

Q: What will be the impact of this result of the sixth census?

A: Well, in the first place, this census is a great effort which was conducted after 19 years. It’s very important to have numbers of population for development of the country but unfortunately the previous governments failed to organise a census. So this successful attempt itself will leave a huge impact on our future development.

Q: Do you think these numbers are accurate?

A: These are very accurate numbers. These were gathered through a comprehensive exercise. These are much larger than I had estimated.

Q: So what is the most significant element of these new population figures?

A: The movement towards urban areas is very significant. But we need to see how have they defined the urban centres; whether they have included towns and tehsil headquarters having population of 20,000 to 70,000 in urban centres. There are many such towns in districts like Rahim Yar Khan, so we need to assess it closely. But generally this trend will impact national development, and social and political scene in the coming years.

Q: How will this trend impact society?

A: It will leave its impact in many ways but the most significant will be the change of political dynasty and opinion. Pakistan is the largest urban growing country in South Asia. So besides other changes, I think the most important will be that people will come out of the shackles of the feudal and political lords in rural areas. I think, by shifting to urban centres, they will incline towards political parties and other social systems instead of ‘pirs’ and ‘waderas’, which I think is very positive.

Q: Why has Lahore grown so rapidly and why did we not see a huge increase in Karachi’s population as estimated before the census?

A: There are several factors but the main factor is development and unrest. Karachi has been hostage to unrest for several decades. Hold of an ethnic party, the MQM, over the city for many years has impacted negatively. Though many people came to Karachi after things got worst in Fata, a constant law and order situation in the city itself forced many others to leave this city as well. Then the Pakhtun people, they are now having more opportunities in Balochistan, Punjab and other areas, so it helped them to shift to areas other than Karachi.

As far as Lahore’s growth is concerned, this city has seen more development and industrialisation during the past decade. So the trend of a population pull towards this city is obvious.

[Riaz Haq]

Demystifying population bomb
Unless an elite consensus is developed in Pakistan to prioritise social sector development, the population problem will be highlighted only as a ruse to brush aside real policy shortcomings

http://dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/02-Sep-17/demystifying-population-...

The provisional results of national population census have brought back to life the catchphrases like a 'ticking time bomb' or 'population explosion'. There is a widely-held belief that a relatively large population size and high population growth rate are major factors which hamper socio-economic development of Pakistan. This traditional neo-Malthusian perception is fuelled by the developed world and the international organisations which frequently tell the developing countries with relatively higher population that their fertility rates have caused the under development.

Presently, 32.1 per cent of Pakistan's population is below the age of 15 which is dependent on productive age adults. Such high number of dependents can result in low savings, low investment, slow economic growth and low socio-economic development. In neo-Malthusian perspective, population should match resources. In case of Pakistan, this perspective of looking at population as a major culprit of our development problems is popular. To some extent, this scenario looks irrefutable but it is not the whole truth.

Is Pakistan now overpopulated? It can be answered only if we know what is an optimum population level vis-à-vis resources. Do we know it? Probably no. A vague measure of population-resource balance is population density or number of people vis-à-vis available arable land. In terms of population density, several highly developed Western European countries are more densely populated even as compared to China, India and Pakistan. Contrary to the common perception, many developed countries have experienced high economic growth rates in tandem with high population growth rates in their recent economic history. For instance, Japan economically grew rapidly during the first half of 20th century despite a population growth rate of more than 3 per cent. If high population were a real obstacle to development, then it would be difficult to explain Chinese development during last three decades or recent Indian economic take off. Interestingly, sheer poverty of many of the sparsely populated African countries also defies the logic of overpopulation as a cause of underdevelopment.

In the recent past, scientific developments and technological advancement have helped humanity successfully defeat Malthusian doomsday. But this is a double-edged sword which cuts both ways. Today, modern automation technology and robotics pose new threats to developing countries having high human resource by rapidly rendering more and more people surplus from labour market. Highly automated production systems require less number of highly skilled labour while simultaneously drives out manifold low-skilled workers. This can potentially create an 'overpopulation' scenario even at zero population growth rate whereas Pakistan with 2.4 per cent of population growth rate will look overpopulated right now. If a production technology, which is suitable for countries with negative population growth, is employed in populated countries, the result would be rapid reduction in employment opportunities. In the cut throat competition of modern market economy, which is exacerbated by recent globalisation, the countries with abundant human resources have been compelled to gradually adopt highly automated production technology to cut costs of production in a desperate bid to remain competitive in the market. The result is gradual reduction in employment opportunities for the less-skilled. With shrinking employment opportunities, even a small population will present same development obstacles which are otherwise ascribed to a big population. This means the real problem is not just population size, but the way a global pursuit of profit maximisation shapes it.

[Riaz Haq]

Developing countries to dominate global saving and investment, but the poor will not necessarily share the benefits, says report

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/05/15/developing-coun...

In less than a generation, global saving and investment will be dominated by the developing world, says the just-released Global Development Horizons (GDH) report.

By 2030, half the global stock of capital, totaling $158 trillion (in 2010 dollars), will reside in the developing world, compared to less than one-third today, with countries in East Asia and Latin America accounting for the largest shares of this stock, says the report, which explores patterns of investment, saving and capital flows as they are likely to evolve over the next two decades.

Titled ‘Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World’, GDH projects developing countries’ share in global investment to triple by 2030 to three-fifths, from one-fifth in 2000.

Productivity catch-up, increasing integration into global markets, sound macroeconomic policies, and improved education and health are helping speed growth and create massive investment opportunities, which, in turn, are spurring a shift in global economic weight to developing countries.

A further boost is being provided by the youth bulge. By 2020, less than 7 years from now, growth in world’s working-age population will be exclusively determined by developing countries. With developing countries on course to add more than 1.4 billion people to their combined population between now and 2030, the full benefit of the demographic dividend has yet to be reaped, particularly in the relatively younger regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

GDH paints two scenarios, based on the speed of convergence between the developed and developing worlds in per capita income levels, and the pace of structural transformations (such as financial development and improvements in institutional quality) in the two groups. Scenario one entails a gradual convergence between the developed and developing world while a much more rapid one is envisioned in the second.

In both scenarios, developing countries’ employment in services will account for more than 60 percent of their total employment by 2030 and they will account for more than 50 percent of global trade. This shift will occur alongside demographic changes that will increase demand for infrastructural services. Indeed, the report estimates the developing world’s infrastructure financing needs at $14.6 trillion between now and 2030.

The report also points to aging populations in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which will see the largest reductions in private saving rates. Demographic change will test the sustainability of public finances and complex policy challenges will arise from efforts to reduce the burden of health care and pensions without imposing severe hardships on the old. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa, with its relatively young and rapidly growing population as well as robust economic growth, will be the only region not experiencing a decline in its saving rate.

[Riaz Haq]

Economists urged to use fertility to predict recessions New paper shows drop in conceptions is evident before economy starts to contract Economists have found evidence of a bump slump before recession strikes Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Mail Save Save to myFT Gemma Tetlow in London 6 HOURS AGO 7 Listen to this article Play audio for this article 00:00 04:04 Experimental feature Report a mispronounced word or Give us your feedback Looking for evidence that a recession is coming? Count how many women are pregnant. That is the conclusion of new US research that suggests economists and investors should pay attention to fertility to understand when a slump is due. A paper published on Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that, ahead of the past three US recessions, the number of conceptions began to fall at least six months before the economy started to contract. While previous research has shown how birth rates track economic cycles, the NBER study is the first to show that fertility declines are a leading indicator for recessions. Daniel Hungerman, economics professor at the University of Notre Dame and one of the report’s authors, said it was “striking” that the drop in pregnancies was evident before the recession that came after the 2007 financial crisis, since it has traditionally been argued that this slump had been hard to predict. “None of the experts saw it coming and in its first few months many business leaders were convinced the economy was doing OK,” he says. In fact the fertility statistics told a different story. The number of conceptions in the US rose slightly between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. But the year-on-year growth rate turned negative in the third quarter of that year, when US stock indices were still hitting then-all-time highs and six months before a similar decline in economic output. Share this graphic The analysis used data on the 109m births in the US between 1989-2016 to examine how fertility rates changed through the last three economic cycles — in the early 1990s, the early 2000s and the late 2000s. It found similar patterns in all three cases. “One way to think about this is that the decision to have a child often reflects one’s level of optimism about the future,” says Kasey Buckles, another Notre-Dame professor and co-author of the study. Research published through the NBER is often conducted by academics at their own universities. The team found that falls in conceptions predicted recessions as well and as far in advance — if not more so — than many commonly used indicators such as consumer confidence, measures of uncertainty, and purchases of big-ticket items such as washing machines and cars. The correlation between conceptions and recessions is not perfect. There have been periods when conceptions have fallen but the economy has not. Professor Buckles says: “It might be difficult in practice to determine whether a one-quarter drop in conceptions is really signalling a future downturn. 

https://www.ft.com/content/daf5dc40-17e8-11e8-9e9c-25c814761640?seg... 

[Riaz Haq]

15,000 #babies in #Pakistan, 69,944 in #India, 44,940 in #China, 25,685 in #Nigeria, 15,000 in Pak, 13,256 in #Indonesia, 11,086 in #US, 10,053 in #Congo, 8,428 in #Bangladesh #births on New Year’s day 2019. Source: @UNICEF . #NewYearsDay2019 #population


https://www.dawn.com/news/1454833

An estimated 15,000 babies will be born in Pakistan on New Year’s day, accounting for 4 per cent of all babies born today globally, Unicef, the United Nations agency for children announced on Tuesday.

Of the 395,072 babies who will be born around the world on January 1, a quarter will be born in South Asia.

Internationally, half of these births are estimated to take place in eight countries, with Pakistan at fourth place.

Unicef estimates that babies born on Jan 1 in each country will come to:

69,944 in India
44,940 in China
25,685 in Nigeria
15,112 in Pakistan
13,256 in Indonesia
11,086 in the US
10,053 in Congo
8,428 in Bangladesh
It is expected that the year's first baby will be delivered in Fiji in the Pacific, while the United States will deliver the last.

Sydney will welcome an estimated 168 babies; Tokyo, 310; Beijing, 605 babies; Madrid, 166, and New York City, some 317 babies.

Around the world on the first day of 2019, families will welcome countless Alexanders, Ayeshas, Zixuans and Zainabs. But in several countries, many babies will not even be named as they won’t make it past their first day.

In 2017, about 1 million babies died the day they were born, and 2.5m died in just their first month of life.

Among those children, most died from preventable causes such as premature birth, complications during delivery, and infections like sepsis and pneumonia, a violation of their basic right to survival.

"This New Year's Day, let’s all make a resolution to fulfil every right of every child, starting with the right to survive," said Aida Girma, the Unicef representative in Pakistan.

"We can save millions of babies if we invest in training and equipping local health workers so that every newborn is born into a safe pair of hands."

2019 marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, which Unicef will be commemorating with worldwide events throughout the year.

Under the convention, among other things, governments have committed to taking measures to save every child by providing good quality health care.

Over the past three decades, the world has seen remarkable progress in child survival, cutting the number of children worldwide who die before their fifth birthday by more than half.

But there has been slower progress for newborns. Babies dying in the first month account for 47pc of all deaths among children under five.

Unicef’s 'Every Child Alive' campaign calls for immediate investment to deliver affordable, quality health care solutions for every mother and newborn.

These include a steady supply of clean water and electricity at health facilities, the presence of a skilled health attendant during birth, ample supplies and medicines to prevent and treat complications during pregnancy, delivery and birth as well empowering adolescent girls and women who can demand better quality of health services.

[Riaz Haq]

The PDHS (Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey) 2017-18 documents a decrease in infant and under-five-years-of-age child mortality showing there have been some improvements in the health system.


https://tribune.com.pk/story/1791011/1-child-nutritional-mortality-...


Infant mortality was recorded at 62 deaths per 1,000 live births, down from 74% in the last survey of 2012-13. The under-five mortality rate was recorded at 74 deaths per 1,000 live births, down from 89 previously.

The neonatal mortality rate has also decreased in the past five years, from 55 to 42 deaths per 1,000 live births.


The survey shows that 69% of children born in the past five years were delivered by skilled care providers. This is up from the 52 per cent recorded in the 2012-13 survey.

It further noted that 66% of all births took place in a health facility, as compared to 48% five years ago.

Urban women were far more likely to benefit from skilled delivery care than rural women with 84% of births to urban mothers assisted by a skilled provider. Moreover, 81% of babies were delivered in a health facility.

This was 63%and 59% respectively for women in rural areas.

Vaccine coverage rates increased over the past five years from 54% to 66% of the country.

Punjab had the highest coverage rate of 80% followed by AJK at 75%, Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) at 68%, Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) at 57 per cent, K-P at 55 per cent, Sindh at 49%, Balochistan at 29% and the erstwhile FATA at 30%.

Balochistan had a marked improvement over the past five years from only 16 per cent of children receiving all basic vaccinations.

Though considerable improvement was made in the indicator, PIPS Deputy Project Director Dr Aysha Sheraz said that the World Health Organisation demands that all children be vaccinated against diseases.

Contrary to the recommendation that children under the age of six months be exclusively breastfed, only 48% of the infants aged six months and below were exclusively breastfed while seven per cent were not breastfed at all.

This, however, was an improvement over the past five years when 38% of children under six months of age were exclusively breastfed while 45% of children were taking breast milk plus supplementary liquids and complementary foods.

Stunted and Wasted

The survey indicated that the nutritional status of children in Pakistan has improved over the last five years.

The percentage of stunted children declined from 45 per cent in 2012-13 to 38% in the 2017-18 survey.

A similar downward trend, from 30% to 23%, was observed for underweight children over the same period.

Children who are wasted also declined from 11% to seven%. Children who are obese remained at three% over this period.

Fertility

If fertility were to remain constant at current levels, a woman from Pakistan would bear an average of 3.6 children in her lifetime.

The report noted that fertility was higher amongst rural women than among urban women with rural women giving birth to about one more child on average during their reproductive years than urban women.

Malnutrition major cause of fatalities among children

However, the report noted that there has been a steady decline in fertility rates over time. From 5.4 births per woman as reported in the 1990-91 PDHS to 3.6 births per woman in the 2017-18 PDHS — a drop of about two births per woman in almost three decades. However, the decline is minimal in the recent period with 3.8 births per woman recorded in the 2012-13 survey.

Punjab has the lowest fertility rate of 3.4%, Sindh is 3.6, K-P and Balochistan are at four each, ICT at three, formerly Fata areas at 4.8, AJK at 3.7, and at G-B 4.8.

Use of contraceptives has remained stagnant over the past 5 years (34% in the 2017-18 PDHS and 35% in the 2012-13 PDHS). Seventeen per cent of currently married women has an unmet need for family planning services. Moreover, 34%of married women are currently using a contraceptive method. 


http://www.nips.org.pk/abstract_files/PDHS%20-%202017-18%20Key%20in...

[Riaz Haq]

UP's fertility rate nearly halved from 4.82 in 1993 to 2.7 in 2016 - and it's expected to touch 2.1 by 2025, according to a government projection.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57801764


Given the falling rates, "incentivising sterilisation is counterproductive", Ms Muttreja added, because "70% of India's increase in population is going to come from young people. So, what we need is non-permanent, spacing methods".

Fertility rates have dipped below replacement levels - 2.1 births per woman - in 19 out of India's 22 states and federally administered territories for which data has been released in the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS). Data from the remaining nine states, including UP, is not ready yet.

----------

Increased awareness, government programmes, urbanisation, upward mobility and greater use of modern methods of contraception have all contributed to this.

Nearly half of the world's countries have seen an extraordinary decline in fertility rates. By 2070, the global fertility rate is expected to drop below replacement levels, according to the UN.

China's fertility rate had dropped to 1.3 in 2020, while India's was 2.2 at the last official count in 2016.

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So, why implement this rule now?
One reason, according to demographers, is the differing rates across India.

Six states - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh - that are home to roughly 40% of India's population also have fertility rates higher than the replacement level, 2.1. This is in sharp contrast with Kerala (1.8), Karnataka (1.7), Andhra Pradesh (1.7) or Goa (1.3).

"Also, our cities are overcrowded and ill-planned. They convey an image of over-population," Dr KS James, director of International Institute of Population Sciences, said.

Political analysts also believe UP's chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, has an eye on state elections slated for next year. And, with such a drastic move, he hopes to signal a development agenda that is removed from his controversial image as a divisive right-wing Hindu nationalist.

This is not a new idea either. In 2018, more than 125 MPs wrote to the president asking for the implementation of a two-child norm. The same year the Supreme Court dismissed several petitions seeking population control measures as it could lead to a "civil war-like situation". In the last year, three MPs from Mr Adityanath's governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) introduced bills in parliament to control population.

Since the early 1990s, 12 states have introduced some version of the two child-policy.

Did it work?
It's hard to say because different states implemented different versions of it - some left loopholes and others introduced financial incentives alongside the punitive measures.

There has been no independent evaluation either but a study in five of the states showed a rise in unsafe and sex-selective abortions, and men divorcing their wives or giving up their children for adoption so they could contest polls.

But the results are mixed - four states revoked the law; Bihar started in 2007 but still has the country's highest fertility rate (3.4); and Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have all seen a remarkable drop in fertility rates with no such norms in place.

"India is at a perfect stage as far as population distribution is concerned," Niranjan Saggurti, director of the Population Council's office in India said.

Experts say India has entered a demographic dividend - the ability of a young and active workforce to catapult economies out of poverty. How India can harness this, especially in populous states like Uttar Pradesh, remains to be seen.