Pakistan's Financial and Human Capital Development 1999-2007

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan experienced rapid economic and human capital growth in years 2000 to 2008 on President Pervez Musharraf's watch. Savings, investments and exports hit new records and the rate of increase in human development reached new highs not seen before or since this period.

Savings and Investments:

Domestic savings rate reached 18% of the GDP and foreign direct investment (FDI) hit a record level of $5.4 billion in 2007-8. This combination of domestic and foreign investments nearly tripled the size of the economy from $60 billion in 1999 to $170 billion in 2007, according to IMF. Exports nearly tripled from about $7 billion in 1999-2000 to $22 billion in 2007-2008, adding millions of more jobs. Pakistan was lifted from a poor, low-income country with per capita income of just $500 in 1999 to a middle-income country with per capita income exceeding $1000 in 2007.

Pakistan Per Capita Income 1960-2012. Source: World Bank

The PPP government summed up General Musharraf's accomplishments well when it signed a 2008 Memorandum of Understanding with the International Monetary Fund which said:

"Pakistan's economy witnessed a major economic transformation in the last decade. The country's real GDP increased from $60 billion to $170 billion, with per capita income rising from under $500 to over $1000 during 2000-07". It further acknowledged that "the volume of international trade increased from $20 billion to nearly $60 billion. The improved macroeconomic performance enabled Pakistan to re-enter the international capital markets in the mid-2000s. Large capital inflows financed the current account deficit and contributed to an increase in gross official reserves to $14.3 billion at end-June 2007. Buoyant output growth, low inflation, and the government's social policies contributed to a reduction in poverty and improvement in many social indicators". (see MEFP, November 20, 2008, Para 1)

Human Capital Development: 

In addition to the economic revival, Musharraf focused on social sector as well. Pakistan's HDI grew an average rate of 2.7% per year under President Musharraf from 2000 to 2007, and then its pace slowed to 0.7% per year in 2008 to 2012 under elected politicians, according to the 2013 Human Development Report titled “The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World”.

Overall, Pakistan's human development score rose by 18.9% during Musharraf years and increased just 3.4% under elected leadership since 2008. The news on the human development front got even worse in the last three years, with HDI growth slowing down as low as 0.59% — a paltry average annual increase of under 0.20 per cent. Going further back to the  decade of 1990s when the civilian leadership of the country alternated between PML (N) and PPP,  the increase in Pakistan's HDI was 9.3% from 1990 to 2000, less than half of the HDI gain of 18.9% on Musharraf's watch from 2000 to 2007.

R&D Spending Jumped 7-fold as % of GDP 1999-2007 Source: World ...

Acceleration of HDI growth during Musharraf years was not an accident.  Not only did Musharraf's policies accelerate economic growth, helped create 13 million new jobs, cut poverty in half and halved the country's total debt burden in the period from 2000 to 2007, his government also ensured significant investment and focus on education and health care. The annual budget for higher education increased from only Rs 500 million in 2000 to Rs 28 billion in 2008, to lay the foundations of the development of a strong knowledge economy, according to former education minister Dr. Ata ur Rehman. Student enrollment in universities increased from 270,000 to 900,000 and the number of universities and degree awarding institutions increased from 57 in 2000 to 137 by 2008. Government R&D spending jumped from 0.1% of GDP in 1999 to 0.7% of GDP in 2007. In 2011, a Pakistani government commission on education found that public funding for education has been cut from 2.5% of GDP in 2007 to just 1.5% - less than the annual subsidy given to the various PSUs including Pakistan Steel and PIA, both of which  continue to sustain huge losses due to patronage-based hiring.

To see a discussion of the above subject and the current situation, please watch the following video:

http://vimeo.com/84504051



Civil-military Stand-Off on Musharraf Trial; Musharraf Govt's Perfo... from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Musharraf Earned Legitimacy By Good Governance

Musharraf Wants to Face Trial; Military Opposed to it

Saving Pakistan's Education

Political Patronage Trumps Public Policy in Pakistan

Dr. Ata-ur-Rehman Defends Pakistan's Higher Education Reforms

Twelve Years Since Musharraf's Coup

Musharraf's Legacy

Pakistan's Economic Performance 2008-2010

Role of Politics in Pakistan Economy

India and Pakistan Compared in 2011

Musharraf's Coup Revived Pakistan's Economy

What If Musharraf Had Said No?

Human Development in Musharraf Years

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan needs a balanced mix of quality skilled workers, technicians, technologists, engineers, researchers and development scientists to promote the country's industrialization. National University of Technology is Pakistan government's answer to fulfill this need.

https://youtu.be/ZDQ2dy3cBSY

The problem with Pakistan’s technological education hitherto has been a surfeit of theory adept engineers, who lack practical skills upon graduation and are therefore of limited use for industry that demands hands on technologists, who could run industrial processes with the desired degree of competence. NUTECH seeks to fill that void through degree programs that will give both respectability and international recognition to the technologists who would undergo four year degree programs in different disciplines of engineering technology. These engineering technology graduates would be exposed to a curriculum geared towards practical aspects of technology that come in handy for an industrial employer. While the engineering degree holders would concentrate on designing and policy aspects the graduates of NUTECH would be focused on actual execution of technological tasks on shop floor. With a practical orientation these engineering technology graduates would already be adept in engineering practices on graduation unlike a normal engineering graduate whose learning starts upon graduation.

The production of top quality engineering technologists accredited to top class international technology regimes like the ‘Dublin, Sydney, and Bologna Accords’ would be a big shot in the arm for our human resource starved industrial sector. As a pioneer technology university under the Ministry of Education and affiliated with the Higher Education Commission, the University is charged with forging a direct linkage with the industry. While NUTECH would be mainly conducting Degree Programs, it is capable of reaching out to less developed areas through its widespread network of technical and vocational training institutes, producing skilled workers for the industry. With more focus on hands on practical training and inclusion of the industrial sector as a stakeholder in designing of curricula, it would synergise the academic output for the benefit of industry.

Pakistan that has suffered because it has completely bypassed industrial development by taking a shortcut to the services sector. Without industrial sinews, no country in the contemporary world can enjoy sustainable economic development. The time has come to correct that egregious flaw in our national development planning through sustainable initiatives. NUTECH is one such initiative, which was long overdue.

https://dailytimes.com.pk/246297/technical-education-industrial-dev...

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan on Wednesday (in June 2017) became a full signatory of the Washington Accord that facilitates mobility of engineering graduates and professionals at the international level.

Pakistan became the full signatory of Washington Accord on June 21, reported Dunya News.

As a result of the new agreement, the engineers from Pakistan would no further have to take exams for getting new jobs and admission abroad.

In the first stage, graduates from UET Lahore, UET Taxila, GIK and NUST would benefit from the new agreement.

Pakistan was granted provisional membership of the Washington Accord in the year 2010.

The Washington Accord, signed in 1989, is an international agreement among bodies responsible for accrediting engineering degree programmes.

It recognises the substantial equivalency of programs accredited by those bodies and recommends that graduates of programs accredited by any of the signatory bodies be recognised by the other bodies as having met the academic requirements for the entry to the practice of engineering.

At present, the Washington Accord member countries include Australia, Canada, Taiwan, Pakistan, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/pakistan-becomes...

[Riaz Haq]

One million youth to be trained each year under new TVET policy: Cheema

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/320986-one-million-youth-to-be-tra...

Islamabad: This national policy for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET), sets out for the first time in our country’s history – the commitment to invest in skill development is vital fast-changing and transforming global economy. The government is committed to increasing access, relevant and the quality of technical &vocational training. We are improving higher education provision. But as this TVET policy document demonstrates so clearly, as a nation we must develop skills to transform on youth into an asset-instead of a burden. The government of Pakistan has stoic resolve and commitment to ensure the implementation of the TVET policy, encouraging technical and vocational training for national and international labour markets.

TVET policy envisages the need for expansion of provision and a greater role for the private sector. It also ensuring the creation of a national quality assurance and qualification system. The importance of developing a new approach to planning and implementation is also part of this policy. This involves partnership working and greater emphasis on performance, accountability and evidence-based decision-making.

NAVTTC Chief Zulfiqar Ahmad Cheema has said that National TVET Policy is an important milestone towards strengthening the TVET sector which would contribute to boost our economy.

“This is indeed a historic moment for us and a clear demonstration of the importance of skills development to achieve sustained economic growth, to increase productivity and to provide opportunities for people to contribute to the economy and to their communities, particularly the country’s growing young population”, he said.

The Head of NAVTTC thanked the cabinet members, provincial TEVTAs, development partners of TVET Reform Support Program, GIZ, Industrial sector of Pakistan and the industrial sector for their cooperation and support.

The National TVET Policy has following salient features:

Secure a national commitment to the importance of skills development to achieve sustained economic growth, to increase productivity and to provide opportunities for people to contribute to the economy and to their communities, particularly the country’s growing youthful population.

Increase the number and quality of training opportunities so that in the short-term at least one million youth will be trained each year. By 2025, the objective is to train 20 percent of all school-leavers, in addition to up-skilling and re-skilling existing workers. Such expansion will not be achieved by the public sector alone and the active engagement of the private sector will be required.

To introduce a national standards-based qualification, assessment and certification system.

To design and deliver competency-based education and training programmes that concentrate on the skills required to perform jobs.

To forge new partnerships between the public and private sectors and to encourage employers to train more directly and to contribute to the reform of public TVET provision.

Maintenance and expansion of the export of labour by encouraging people to obtain internationally recognized qualifications.

Encourage the informal sector of the economy by providing people with opportunities to gain formal certification. Continue the reform and revitalization of the TVET sector.

Development of an integrated TVET to strengthen collaboration and consultation with the provincial TEVTAS.

[Riaz Haq]

Measuring human capital: a systematic analysis of 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016
Prof Stephen S Lim, PhD
Rachel L Updike, BA
Alexander S Kaldjian, MSc
Ryan M Barber, BS
Krycia Cowling, PhD
Hunter York, BA
et al

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31941-X/fulltext

In 2016, Finland had the highest level of expected human capital of 28·4 health, education, and learning-adjusted expected years lived between age 20 and 64 years (95% uncertainty interval 27·5–29·2); Niger had the lowest expected human capital of less than 1·6 years (0·98–2·6). In 2016, 44 countries had already achieved more than 20 years of expected human capital; 68 countries had expected human capital of less than 10 years. Of 195 countries, the ten most populous countries in 2016 for expected human capital were ranked: China at 44, India at 158, USA at 27, Indonesia at 131, Brazil at 71, Pakistan at 164, Nigeria at 171, Bangladesh at 161, Russia at 49, and Mexico at 104. Assessment of change in expected human capital from 1990 to 2016 shows marked variation from less than 2 years of progress in 18 countries to more than 5 years of progress in 35 countries. Larger improvements in expected human capital appear to be associated with faster economic growth. The top quartile of countries in terms of absolute change in human capital from 1990 to 2016 had a median annualised growth in gross domestic product of 2·60% (IQR 1·85–3·69) compared with 1·45% (0·18–2·19) for countries in the bottom quartile.

Despite 25 years of progress in many dimensions of human capital, in 2016 these levels were not universally high (Figure 2, Figure 3). The top five countries were unchanged from 1990 except for the replacement of Canada with Taiwan (province of China). In 2016, all countries in western Europe, and many in central and eastern Europe, had more than 20 years of expected human capital, as did South Korea, Japan, China, Singapore, Taiwan (province of China), Turkey, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, USA, and Canada. Despite improvements, 24 countries in 2016 continued to have expected human capital below 5 years, with the five lowest-ranked countries being Niger (1·6 years; 95% UI 0·98–2·6), South Sudan (2·0 years; 1·2–3·0), Chad (2·7 years; 1·7–3·2), Burkina Faso (2·8 years; 1·8–4·2), and Mali (2·8 years; 2·0–3·8).
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Human capital refers to the attributes of a population that, along with physical capital such as buildings, equipment, and other tangible assets, contribute to economic productivity.1 Human capital is characterised as the aggregate levels of education, training, skills, and health in a population,2 affecting the rate at which technologies can be developed, adopted, and employed to increase productivity.3 The World Bank has brought new attention to this topic through its recently introduced Human Capital Project,4 which aims to “understand the link between investing in people and economic growth, and to accelerate financing for human capital investments.” A basic input needed for this aim to be fulfilled is an internationally comparable index of human capital, which currently does not exist. This study seeks to fill this global measurement gap.3
Although evidence supports human capital as a driver of growth, the World Bank has argued that investments in human capital are too low in low-income and middle-income countries.5 Much of the World Bank's investments focus on physical rather than human capital.5 Only 1·5% of the World Bank International Development Association concessional grants are for health and 1·9% are for education.6 As countries graduate to borrowing from the non-concessional International Bank for Reconstruction and Development framework, the shares for health increase to 4·2% and to 5·2% for education.6 A focus on building physical assets might also be driven by time horizons; such projects can yield returns sooner than investing in children's health and education, and the political process in many nations might reward short-run returns.6

[Riaz Haq]

Science festival inspires students in rural Pakistan


https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/science-festival-inspires-...


With their vibrant scientific models and stimulating explanations, students from the historical city of Thatta, in Pakistan’s Sindh province, not only displayed their talent but also fascinated visitors at the first ever Laar Science Festival.

More than 7,000 students from over 50 regional schools and colleges participated in the two-day (Dec 14-15) festival at Thatta’s Sports Complex.

A large number of teachers, entrepreneurs, science specialists and government officials also attended the event including Dr Nawaz Sogho, Deputy Commissioner of Thatta, Senator Sassui Palijo from Thatta district, Sindh’s Minister of Science and Technology Taimur Talpur.

Admiring the talent of local students in science and technology, minister Talpur promised to establish science centres in the region to groom young scientists.

“It’s amazing to see the scientific spirit in the ancient city of Thatta famous for its archaeological, cultural sites and the seat of three successive dynasties,” said Junaid Ahmad Dahar, CEO of Sindh Education Alliance.

He agreed with most of the visitors that the high level of participation by the students was a clear indication of their interest in utilising everyday science to work towards solving issues in their towns and cities.

Organised by Thar Education Alliance (TEA), Campaignistan, and Laar Education Campaign with the support of District Government of Thatta, the festival reached rural students who would not typically have the chance to attend science and technology events.

The science fest promoted a culture of inquiry and hands-on learning in STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Mathematics) subjects.

“We started this journey of organising science festivals from Tharparkar back in February 2018, and continuing this campaign for quality education in Pakistan” remarked Partab Shivani, CEO Thar Education Alliance and organiser of the event.

The theme of the event was ‘climate change’ to raise awareness on the issue as Pakistan has been ranked 7 on the list of climate vulnerable countries. To raise public awareness on the effects of climate change, the event was held in Sindh province, which is vulnerable to increased intensity of extreme weather events such as frequent floods and droughts.

Young scientists exhibited projects on solar panels, windmills, water purification, offering innovative solutions to climate change.

A project by Nimra Memon, a Grade 12 student at Concept School, Thatta, was highly acclaimed at the festival as well as on social media where her video received appreciation from Climate Change Adviser Malik Amin Aslam.

“The festival in my hometown Thatta has enhanced my interest in science and encouraged me to work on solutions to climate change and aware the people of Laar on the issue.”

After explaining the phenomenon and impact of global warming, she asked the visitors: “If it is not the time to talk about climate change, then when will be the right time?”

Campaignistan CEO Farhad Ahmad Jarral said: “We live in a digital age, where there is need to connect online and offline to bring change in the education discourse. The festival was appreciated by thousands online and sparked interest among students in other regions of Pakistan when the pictures and videos of students of Thatta were shared online.”

[Riaz Haq]

Pak-Austria Fachhochschule Institute of Applied Sciences and Technology

https://youtu.be/XWPcThqqZwM

Globalization and the information and communication revolution have greatly impacted worlds’ production methods and its structure. Today, knowledge is one of the main distinguishing features between developed and underdeveloped economies. In highly-developed economies, research and development activities and production are horizontally integrated in the form of networks, covering production sites and laboratories in a number of countries.
Pakistan is lacking in having an adequately trained and skilled workforce in production sector which ultimately resulted in lowest exports and consequently limited potential for economic growth.
‘Skilling Pakistan: A Vision for the National Skills Strategy, 2008-12” aims at three main objectives when defining technical education at policy level: firstly, providing relevant skills for industrial and economic development; secondly, improving access, equity and employability; and lastly, assuring quality for skills development. These objectives are in line with the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s aim to poverty alleviation through human resource development and skill training.

[Riaz Haq]

Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
Close to 350k engineers in Pakistan ( registered with engineering council)

Largest number is electrical , followed by civil engineers

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1577366163700465664?s=20&...

[Riaz Haq]

HOW ROADS CHANGED THARPARKAR


by Arif Hasan

https://www.dawn.com/news/1714144

The main recommendation of the 1987 report on drought and famine conditions in Thar, prepared by the author, was that the changes taking place in Thar could only be consolidated through increased mobility and linkages of Thar with the rest of Pakistan in general and Karachi and Hyderabad in particular.

It was felt that, if a road-building programme did not take place, the inequities in Thari society would increase, since those who could hire or possess four-wheel drives would be the main beneficiaries of Thar’s huge mineral and livestock potential.

For mobility and linkages to happen, a road-building programme had been recommended, which envisaged linking the four Thar taluka headquarters with one another and with the national road network. However, it was not till the Musharraf era (2000-08) that a road-building programme commenced.

The roads have made transportation cheaper and easier. The old six-wheeler kekra [World War II era American truck], which was slow and consumed enormous amounts of energy plying on the desert tracks, has been replaced by normal Bedford trucks, which are cheaper to run and can carry 250 maunds as opposed to 150 maunds carried by the kekras.

It is claimed by the transporters that, earlier, it used to take three hours from Mithi to Naukot, but now this has been reduced to one hour. They also claim that the cost of petrol/diesel and maintenance of vehicles have been reduced by 20 per cent.

With the building of the road network, trade and commerce has increased substantially. Thar’s agricultural produce now goes to distant markets — six to seven lorries per day carry onions from Nagarparkar to Lahore, and vegetables and fruit from other areas of Sindh and Punjab are now easily available in Thar.

Unlike the situation that prevailed 15 years ago, there are cattle markets in the taluka headquarters, so the Tharis do not have to make the long trek on foot to Juddo to sell their animals. Shops carrying industrially produced household food have multiplied and sell items such as baby diapers, something quite unimaginable before. Every hour an air-conditioned bus, complete with TV and Wi-Fi (owned mainly by Pakhtuns and people of Mianwali based in Karachi) leaves for or arrives in Mithi.

The number of taxis operating in Thar has increased from 150 to over 400, while the qingqis in Mithi have increased from over 150 to over 300 since 2013. These taxis carry passengers not only within Thar but to distant locations all over Pakistan, while the qingqis have almost completely replaced transport animals such as camels and bullocks.

Bank loans for the purchase of taxis are available, but to buy the qingqis and trucks, one can only borrow from the informal market. Interest rates against loans are high and vary depending on how much advance payment can be made by the borrower, or if property or land can be mortgaged against the loan. Spare parts and mechanics for the maintenance of the taxis and qingqis are locally available, which was not so in 2000 and, very often, the vehicles had to be taken to Umerkot for maintenance purposes.

Almost all these different types of vehicles have no insurance, since the owners find insurance rates far too expensive and prefer to put their trust in God. The qingqi and taxi owners have no association but are of the opinion that they desperately need one to negotiate with government agencies and fight against the bhatta [protection money] that the police extorts from them.

An association is also necessary to resist pressure from national transporters’ associations, who coerce the Thari transporters to call a strike on their advice. This was not an issue in the past, because the kekras, which the new vehicles replaced, were collectively owned by seths in Umerkot and Naukot. One truck driver pointed out that there was a desperate need for a driving school in Mithi, because people who were learning to drive were dangerous and caused a large number of animal deaths.