Pakistan's Blue Economy: Vast Offshore Resources in Exclusive Economic Zone

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan has a 1,000 kilometers long coastline on the Arabian Sea with maritime sovereignty over 200 nautical miles deep Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and 150 nautical miles of Continental Shelf. This adds 290,000 square kilometers of sea or about 36% of the country's land area open for tapping vast resources in it.

Pakistan's "Blue Economy" in this extended economic zone includes seafood and energy resources as well as international trade connectivity with the rest of the world. It offers opportunities for water sports, recreation and tourism in the coastal areas of Pakistan. One sign of the recognition of Pakistan's blue economy is the ongoing three-day International Maritime Conference organized on the theme of ‘Global Geopolitics in Transition: Rethinking Maritime Dynamics in the Indian Ocean Region’ under the auspices of National Institute of Maritime Affairs.

Offshore Energy Resources:

A Pakistan Basin Study conducted in 2009 found that the country has six onshore and two offshore basins; offshore basins being the Indus basin and the Makran basin in the Arabian Sea.

Top 3 Offshore Drilling Sites in Asia-Pacific. Source: Bloomberg

The Indus offshore basin is a rift basin that geologists say developed after the separation of the Indian Plate from Africa in the late Jurassic period. It is believed to be the second largest submarine fan system in the world after the Bay of Bengal with high probability of hydrocarbon discoveries.

The Makran Offshore basin is separated from the Indus Offshore basin by Murray ridge, according to Syed Mustafa Amjad's report in Dawn. It is an oceanic and continental crust subduction zone with deepwater trenches and volcanic activity. The basin consists of oceanic crust and periodic emergence of temporary mud islands along the coast suggesting strong evidence of large hydrocarbon deposits.

American energy giant Exxon-Mobil has joined the offshore oil and gas exploration efforts started by Oil and Gas Development Corporation (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Italian energy giant ENI, according to media reports.

Each company has 25% stake in the joint venture under an agreement signed at the Prime Minister’s Secretariat in May 2018 among ExxonMobil, Government Holdings Private Limited (GHPL), PPL, ENI and OGDC.

Exxon-Mobile's entry in Pakistan brings deep offshore drilling technology, its long experience and financial resources to the country. It is expected to accelerate exploration and more discoveries.

CPEC and Trade:

Pakistan has built Gwadar as its third major deep sea port after Karachi and Port Qasim. Gwadar port's planned capacity when it is completed will be 300 to 400 million tons of cargo annually.  It is comparable to the capacity of all of India's ports combined annual capacity of 500 million tons of cargo today.   It is far larger than the 10-12 million tons cargo handling capacity planned for Chabahar.

"We believe Gwadar is following in the footsteps of Shenzhen which represented a historic population rise, from a population of 30,000 in 1980 to 11 million people in 2017. Gwadar is poised to see massive population growth due to incoming industries, and we expect this to be one of the most strategic cities in South Asia." Hao-Yeh Chang,  China Pak Investments Corporation

To put Gwadar's scale in perspective, let's compare it with the largest US port of Long Beach which handles 80 million tons of cargo, about a quarter of what Gwadar will handle upon completion of the project. Gawadar port will be capable of handling the world's largest container ships and massive oil tankers.

Gawadar port is being built in Pakistan by the Chinese as part of the ambitious $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will eventually serve as Hong Kong West for  growing Chinese trade with the Middle East and Europe.  CPEC will also enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan to trade with Central Asia through China across China's borders with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

The volume of Gwadar property searches surged 14-fold on Pakistan’s largest real estate database, Zameen.com, between 2014 and 2016, up from a prior rate of a few hundred a month. “It’s like a gold rush,” said Chief Executive Zeeshan Ali Khan to an Express Tribune newspaper reporter. “Anyone who is interested in real estate, be it an investor or a developer, is eyeing Gwadar.”

Chinese private investment company China Pak Investment Corporation has recently announced it is acquiring 3.6 million square foot International Port City project in Gwadar. It plans to develop a $150 million gated community to handle the influx of 500,000 Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2022.

Seafood Industry:

Pakistan’s fishing industry is very small relative to its vast potential. Pakistani fishermen own small fishing boats and their catch is very limited. The industry contributes only 0.4% of the country's $315 billion GDP.   However, the nation's seafood exports are growing, In fiscal year 2017-18, seafood exports increased 27.94% to 198,420 tons, earning $451.026 million.

Pakistani finishing industry is in  need of major modernization to make it more productive. China’s infrastructure investments in Pakistan are opening up the local fisheries sector on the Arabian Sea, with a major Chinese power station builder completing a fishing port as a “gift” to local people, according to a report in SeafoodSource. State-owned China State Power Investment Corp., which is building several power plants in Pakistan, said a new fishing port in Lasbela region on the Arabian Sea would aid the economy and increase the efficiency of the local fishing community in Baluchistan Province (of which Lasbela is part), says the report.

Summary:

Pakistan is beginning to focus on tapping vast resources in its 290,000 square kilometers of sea or about 36% of the country's land area.  Fishing industry is being modernized with Chinese help and Exxon has begun exploring offshore oil and gas reserves. Gwadar has been built as the third deep sea port and a major new metropolis is being built t hat could one day rival Chinese city of Shenzhen.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

US EIA Estimates of Oil and Gas in Pakistan

Gwadar to Rival Shenzhen

Exxon Exploring Offshore Oil and Gas in Pakistan

Why Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy-Rich Pakistan?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

[Riaz Haq]

Venkatesh Kandlikar, defence analyst at GlobalData, told Naval Technology that the INS Vikrant features a significant amount of Indian industrial contribution in the design and manufacturing stage, even using locally sourced steel.

However, the programme was not without its difficulties, with component and equipment delivery and supply chain issues delaying the commissioning by around five years. The programme also suffered from cost overruns, coming in at $3bn more than the initial allocated budget.


INS Vikrant (specifications)
Displacement 43,000t
Speed 28kt
Endurance 7,500nm
Embarked aircraft 30 fixed- and rotary-wing

https://www.naval-technology.com/analysis/ins-vikrant-a-profile-of-...

According to Kandlikar, the Indian Navy is expected to field three aircraft carriers in its fleet by the next decade. With Vikramiditya in service and Vikrant now commissioned, India is beginning to plan the build of the future INS Vishal, which is expected to be larger still than existing carriers and feature updated technologies, such as an electromagnetic air-lift systems, also known as EMALS, as being installed on the US Navy’s Ford-class super carriers.

“With the experience gained in the construction of IAC-1, supported by the indigenous ecosystem it is expected that the Indian Navy will soon get a green light from the Indian Ministry of Defence to start designing the third aircraft carrier,” Kandlikar said.

Air wing composition
In terms of embarked aircraft, Kandlikar said the Indian Navy was looking to deploy a new carrier air wing comprising of either F/A-18 Super Hornets or Rafale-M fighters. The Indian Air Force currently operates the conventional Rafale 4.5 generation fighter, which is manufactured by France’s Dassault Aviation, offering a commonality option for the Indian Navy.

Capability-wise, the two aircraft are similar, although the Rafale is the newer aircraft and is being heavily pushed for export. The Super Hornet, meanwhile, is entering the twilight of its naval career. Although it still broadly matches the Rafale in terms of engine thrust it, is slightly slower at Mach 1.6 compared to Mach 1.8, but with a higher payload capacity at 66,000lb (29,937kg) to the Rafale’s 54,000lb.

However, in the near-to-mid-term, India will utilise its fleet of 45 MiG-29K/KUB fighters, acquired from Russia following the signing of separate deals in 2004 and 2010. India is also developing a navalised variant of its LCA/HAL Tejas fighter, although it is not known when the platform will be integrated into the country’s carrier fleet.

The rotary component, vital for search-and-rescue and airborne early warning and surveillance roles, will be fulfilled by the Russian-supplied Kamov 31 helicopter.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan opens defence expo IDEAS 2022 with participation from 57 countries
300 exhibitors and hundreds of foreign delegates take part in Karachi event

https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/pakistan-opens-defence-exp...


IDEAS 2022 will feature advanced military hardware and software with a focus on technologies such as artificial intelligence. Defence manufacturers from Turkey, China, US, UK, European Union, Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa are showcasing their products at the 11th edition of the expo, said Maj. Gen. Mohammad Arif Malik, the head of the country’s Defence Export Promotion Organization (DEPO).

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Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, who inaugurated IDEAS 2022, said that “IDEAS is an iconic platform for showcasing the latest defence technologies, and is a regional gateway for international suppliers and manufacturers to explore new avenues of defence cooperation.” He noted that Pakistan’s defence industry has achieved a sufficient level of quality, reliability and competency in the international market.

“Pakistan is now exporting high-level defence products to more than 60 countries”, however, the volume of exports did not reflect the country’s actual potential due to the limited involvement of the private sector and little attention to research and development.

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Pakistan’s longtime allies China and Turkey have the largest representation at the expo. Chinese state-run defence conglomerate China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO) displayed missiles and weapon systems including the Red Arrow 9A anti-tank guided missile.

Top Turkish defence companies, including Roketsan, state-run STM and ASFAT, showcased their products ranging from military hardware to modern drones to tactical mini-UAV systems. Turkish Aerospace exhibited the models of the T129 ATAK helicopter, Gokbey multirole helicopter, Gokturk-2 observation satellite, as well as Anka unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and Aksungur medium-altitude long-range endurance (MALE) UAV. “We aim to increase joint cooperation [with Pakistan] on high technologies that will guide the future of the aerospace industry,” said Turkish Aerospace President and CEO Prof Temel Kotil.

Some of Pakistan’s advanced military hardware exhibited at the expo included unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), air defence systems, missile systems, tanks and armoured personnel carriers (APC).

Pakistan’s Shahpar-II medium-altitude long-endurance UAV system, advanced Harbah anti-ship cruise missile by state-owned Global Industrial and Defence Solutions (GIDS) and electronic warfare system by National Radio and Telecommunication Corporation were on display. The locally developed Al-Khalid tanks and modern assault rifles manufactured by Pakistan Ordinance Factories (POF) were also exhibited. Spectators also got a close look at the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) JF-17 Thunder fighter jets. PAF jets are expected to perform aerial manoeuvres and demonstrate the air force’s capabilities on the concluding day of the expo.

[Riaz Haq]

Gwadar Pro Official
@Gwadar_Pro

China state-affiliated media
Gwadar Oceanographic Research Sub-Station all set to start
Considering Gwadar's geographic importance, the government plans to begin construction of the "Gwadar Oceanographic Research Sub-Station" on January 6th under the patronage of the National Institute of Oceanography (NIC).

https://twitter.com/Gwadar_Pro/status/1610941557447823360?s=20&...

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NIC official told Gwadar Pro that research will involve areas of geological processes and geomorphology of the coastal areas, sedimentation and sedimentary processes in Indus Delta and Makran Margin, geo-hazards and coastal environment, exploration of placer minerals and other non-living resources, identification and evaluation of potential areas for hydrocarbon resources in EEZ, and study of sub-bottom strata for the laying submarine cables and pipelines and building coastal length.

NIO is the only R&D research organization in Pakistan for multidisciplinary oceanographic research with an experienced and well qualified team of scientists and technicians. Since the establishment of NIO, efforts have been made to enhance the R&D capabilities oceanography and a number of projects of national and international level have been undertaken.

The latest major achievement of NIO is the submission of Case for the Extension of Pakistan's Continental Shelf to the United Nation's Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). It is estimated that an area of more than 50,000 sq km of the extended continental shelf can be annexed to the existing 240,000 sq km offshore area of EEZ.

https://gwadarpro.pk/1610868745890689026/gwadar-oceanographic-resea...

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s New OPV – PNS Yarmook – Is At NAVDEX 2023

https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/navdex-2023/2023/02/pakistans-...

PNS Yarmouk, the Pakistan Navy's first Yarmook-class Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV), opened its gates to visitors for NAVDEX 2023 exhibition, which is being held in Abu Dhabi between February 20 and 24, 2023.

PNS Yarmook (271) arrived at the NAVDEX marina pier in Abu Dhabi on February 19, 2023, one day before the exhibition. After her arrival, H.E. Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, Ambassador of Pakistan to the United Arab Emirates, visited the ship.

Yarmook‘s visit to the exhibition is defined as increasing relations between the two countries.

“IDEX continues to benefit an increasing number of international decision-makers from within the defence- industry, government, armed forces and military personnel. PNS YARMOOK is the lead ship of the class inducted in Pakistan Navy in 2020. The ship is equipped with state of the art equipment, modern systems and fully ready-to-counter- challenges at sea.”


Pakistan’s Embassy to UAE
On the first day of the exhibition, Naval News paid a visit to PNS Yarmook and took a tour with ship personnel. The most notable change on the ship was the preparations for the deployment of Harbah anti-ship missiles, which were developed by Pakistan using domestic resources and have an operational range of approximately 280 kilometers. The missile launchers and cable channels were installed on the ship. Naval News learned that 4×2 Harbah missiles will be fitted aboard PNS Yarmook this year.

In June 2017, Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence signed an agreement with Damen Shipyards to build two offshore patrol vessels (OPV). The lead ship, PNS Yarmook, was commissioned in February 2020, and the second ship, PNS Tabuk, entered the service for the Pakistan Navy in November 2020.

After the commissioning, PNS Yarmook participated in the Mediterranean Shield operation of the Turkish Navy, which is conducted by the Turkish Navy assets only, marking the first foreign ship to contribute to this operation.

The technical specifications of the OPV:

Displacement: 2,300 tons
Length: 90 m
Beam: 14.4 m
Top Speed: 23 knots
Range: 6,000 nautical miles
Endurance: 40 days
Crew: 60+

The Yarmook-class OPVs’ propulsion system architecture is CODAD (Combined Diesel and Diesel), consist of 4 Caterpillar 3516 diesel engines delivering power to 2 shafts.

The Yarmook-class OPV is fitted with a 30 mm Aselsan SMASH remote weapon station, two Aselsan STAMP remote weapon systems, and a Phalanx Block 1B close-in weapon system. These ships will have land-attack capability after Harbah missiles are deployed.

The ships can house a helicopter and an unmanned aerial vehicle in separate hangars. Yarmook class OPVs can carry two RHIB (rigid-hulled inflatable boats), specifically one 11.5 m and one 6.5 m RHIB. The OPVs are designed to accommodate two twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) for special mission-based operations

[Riaz Haq]

Gwadar’s 1.2 MGD water plant completed: GPA - Pakistan Observer

https://pakobserver.net/gwadars-1-2-mgd-water-plant-completed-gpa/

In order to provide clean water to residents of Gwadar, 1.2 MGD seawater desalination plant has finally been completed as per schedule. Formal inauguration is all set to be executed by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif during his likely visit to Gwadar after Eid Holidays. Talking to Gwadar Pro, Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) project director Dawood Baloch said water desalination plant has been done and dusted with a grant of Rs. 2 billion from China in collaboration with Gwadar Port Authority (GPA), National Engineering Services Pakistan and China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC).

Along with completion of Civil, mechanical and electrical work, Central room of 1.2 MGD desalination water plant is now up and running, he informed. Almost 90 percent manpower and human resource, he said, have been hired from local market of Gwadar and Balochistan. On a query, he said that all related equipment and apparatus have been installed in befitting manner to keep desalination water plant functional with full capacity.

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Gwadar to get clean drinking water

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2406514/gwadar-to-get-clean-drinking-w...


QUETTA:
A pipeline 152 kilometers in length, connected to two newly-constructed dams, Shadi Kor and Sod, will provide clean drinking water to Gwadar city.

"The government is taking all possible steps to prevent a water shortage and supply clean water to the people," Public Health Engineering (PHE) Secretary Saleh Baloch said. Uninterrupted water supply to people's homes should be ensured, and no negligence will be tolerated in this regard, he added.

He expressed these views while presiding over the review meeting regarding Gwadar's ‘Ab-noshi’ projects. Gwadar Deputy Commissioner Izzat Nazir Baloch, PHE Executive Engineer Shakeel Ahmed Baloch, Development Institute Gwadar Chief Engineer Haji Syed Muhammad Baloch, Health Engineering SDO Engineer Shezar Amir, and other officers were also present in the meeting.

Chief Engineer Syed Muhammad Baloch said that the water capacity of Shadi Kor Dam is 35 thousand acre-feet, while the water capacity of Sod Dam is 46 thousand acre-feet.

[Riaz Haq]

Eight months into Pakistan’s financial calendar, the country’s seafood exports are up 23 percent by volume and 12 percent by value year-over-year.


https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/premium/supply-trade/pakistans-s...

Between July 2022 and February 2023, Pakistan exported 126,270 metric tons (MT) of seafood valued at USD 300.2 million (EUR 275.3 million), up from 100,154 MT valued at USD 267.8 million (EUR 245.5 million) in the same period the year prior. Seafood exports grew nearly 5.8 percent by volume and 5.6 percent by value in February 2023 compared to the month prior, hitting totals of 18,548 MT of exports valued at USD 38.3 million (EUR 35.1 million), according to The Nation.

Exports to China fueled the growth, according to Ghulam Qadir, the commercial counselor in Pakistan’s Embassy in Beijing, speaking with China Economic Net. In 2022, Pakistan exported USD 198.3 million (EUR 181.8 million) in seafood to China, up from USD 139.3 million (EUR 127.7 million) in 2021, when Pakistani exporters struggled with strict import restrictions in China. Pakistan’s exports of frozen fish nearly doubled in value year-over-year in 2022, reaching USD 63.3 million (EUR 58.0 million) in value and 30,637 MT in volume, up from USD 33.4 million (EUR 30.6 million) and 18,987 MT in 2021.

“The increase in Pakistan’s seafood exports to China is largely attributed to the increasing demand for fish of the Chinese people and the growing popularity of Pakistani fish in Chinese restaurants,” Qadir said. “This has led to a successive increase in Pakistani seafood exports every year since 2020.”

The China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement has been a boon to Pakistani seafood exporters, Qadir said, with more seafood species being added to the list of zero-tariff items over the past year.

“Now many Pakistani seafood exporters enjoy zero-traffic duty on seafood items while they are getting more awareness about China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement,” he told Pakistan Today in December 2022.

More Pakistani seafood exporters are interested in exporting to China and are seeking collaborations with Chinese companies that will help them boost production, including sharing of aquaculture technology expertise and best practices, Qadir said. An expansion of the Gwadar fishing port has also helped Pakistan expand its exports to China.

Pakistan exports seafood to around 45 countries …

[Riaz Haq]

Why fears of a Chinese naval base at Pakistan’s Gwadar port are overblown

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231705/why-fears-chin...


China’s continued investment in the port, despite its lacklustre performance, has raised suspicions that it is intended for use as a Chinese navy base
However, despite its strategic location, the port is not as attractive as the ones in Karachi and Ormara, nor does Islamabad seem interested in a permanent Chinese naval presence

By Riaz Khokhar


On August 14, a roadside bomb targeted a convoy carrying Chinese engineers in Gwadar, Pakistan. While none were injured, the continued presence of Chinese workers in Gwadar, despite recurring terrorist attacks, might puzzle casual observers.
By accepting Pakistan’s 40-year lease proposal for the Gwadar port’s construction and operation in 2013, Beijing also signed up to the inherent risks of working in Balochistan, a province marred by insurgency. The choice underscored a prioritisation of strategic interests over purely economic ones.
Despite Gwadar Port operating since 2008, it has seen minimal economic activity. While trade activity at Karachi Port and Port Qasim averaged 41 and 48 million tonnes respectively between 2020 and 2023, Gwadar Port reported under 100,000 tonnes.
This disparity, combined with persistent Chinese investment despite obvious risks, has bolstered the idea that Beijing may be helping Pakistan construct a larger naval facility at Gwadar for potential access and use by the Chinese navy.

In the early 2000s, Pakistan began reaching out to China to help build a naval base at Gwadar. By 2005, Pakistan’s naval chief had envisioned it as the nation’s third naval base, complementing the Karachi base and the Jinnah base at Ormara.
Gwadar is seen as a probable location for a Chinese naval base due to its strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz and ability to host large warships. It is anticipated that Chinese navy warships will dock at Gwadar for repairs and replenishment, as they have in Karachi in the past. This would address China’s ability to sustain a fleet in the Indian Ocean and may allow Beijing access to regional maritime data.
However, to what extent will this potential be realised? Key considerations include the nature of China’s intelligence operations concerning US naval activities and whether Pakistan would allow the Chinese navy permanent access to its bases.

[Riaz Haq]

Why fears of a Chinese naval base at Pakistan’s Gwadar port are overblown

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231705/why-fears-chin...

Intelligence gathering by Chinese entities or navy personnel at such facilities is hardly new. US Navy Lieutenant Commander Joseph McGinnis’ research highlighted the Karachi and Jinnah naval bases as primary choices for the Chinese navy due to their “superior repair, logistics, and military facilities”. If China were to use Pakistan-based facilities for overseas operations, these two bases would be prioritised.

Besides, Pakistan hosts most of its naval assets – much of them Chinese-supplied – at the Karachi and Jinnah bases. Chinese technicians have been present at the former for years and are likely to be at the latter too, given the relocation of strategic assets there since 2011.
Beijing would probably have been gathering intel on US naval activities in the Persian Gulf through its assets and personnel at these bases. If the US had reservations, it would have exercised its leverage over Pakistan to address them.
Additionally, such surveillance is hardly unique. Chinese firms operating ports in over 50 countries similarly monitor naval operations, according to Isaac B. Kardon and Wendy Leutert in their 2022 International Security article, “Pier competitor: China’s power position in global ports”.
Pakistan is likely to accept this trade-off in return for Chinese naval transfers, given the constraints on obtaining military equipment from the US and Europe. Islamabad aims to increase its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities not only against India but against terrorists, who have previously targeted Pakistan’s naval strategic assets.

The Pakistani cabinet’s recent nod towards renewing the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement with the US after its 2020 expiration indicates Islamabad’s interest in US military tech integrated with ISR features. If China offers similar tech, it might understandably want access for regional data collection.
Yet, this is vastly different from the Chinese navy deploying surveillance ships directly on the Pakistani coast. Currently, the Chinese navy primarily utilises its Djibouti base for noncombat and anti-piracy missions near the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, up to North Africa. Having a foothold in Pakistan’s southwestern shores would significantly aid operations extending to the Persian Gulf.

[Riaz Haq]

Why fears of a Chinese naval base at Pakistan’s Gwadar port are overblown

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231705/why-fears-chin...


Islamabad has previously allowed port calls by the Chinese navy, including submarine visits. Pakistan’s chief of naval staff recently indicated an openness to more such visits, including from Chinese aircraft carriers.
Still, the primary role of the temporary deployment of Chinese navy personnel and warships on these bases has been to offer training to Pakistani navy officers and improve interoperability on Pakistan’s warships of Chinese origin. To date, the Chinese navy hasn’t established a consistent naval presence on Pakistani bases.

Pakistan would be wise to avoid granting the Chinese navy access to its bases for contingency operations, as this could one day translate into regional military actions or coercive diplomacy.
Instead, Islamabad seems to be leveraging the possibility of such port calls to secure support from the US. For example, the US has approved a US$450 million F-16 sustainment sale and supported an International Monetary Fund loan package.

There are two scenarios in which Pakistan might allow permanent Chinese navy deployments at its bases.
One, Washington’s support for Islamabad diminishes and punitive actions against Pakistan increase, coupled with amplified backing for India’s defence capabilities and potential military campaigns against Pakistan. In other words, unless Pakistan anticipates an irreversible breakdown in its strategic relationship with the US, it would be reluctant to permit a permanent Chinese naval presence.
Two, if China supersedes the US in economic, military and diplomatic dominance, and Pakistan secures guarantees from Beijing, then Pakistan’s expectation of US benefits or penalties may diminish, enabling more latitude in its decisions.
Riaz Khokhar is a research analyst on geopolitics and security of the Indo-Pacific region and a former Asia studies visiting fellow at East-West Center in Washington