Pakistan's Biggest Food Import: Cooking Oil Worth $4.5 Billion Worsens Trade Deficit

[Riaz Haq]

Rising demand and soaring prices of cooking oil raised Pakistan's edible oil import bill to $4.5 billion in fiscal year 2021-22, according to government sources. Pakistan is the world's third largest importer of palm oil after India and China. Total cooking oil imports add up to 3.7 million tons while the total annual edible oil consumption is about 5 million tons. Pakistan's palm oil imports are the second biggest commodity import after more than $20 billion in energy imports, accounting for a significant chunk of Pakistan's growing trade and current account deficits.  

Sources of Palm Oil Imports in Pakistan. Source: Dawn

Pakistan Palm Oil Consumption Growth. Source: NationMaster

Pakistan's edible oil consumption has been rising over the years. It is now about 24 Kg per person which is among the highest in the world, according to analysts quoted by Dawn newspaper.  Combined with rising prices, the total imports of palm oil could exceed $6 billion next year. It could further worsen the country's balance of payments problems. Is Pakistan doing anything to try to grow oil palms in the country? Researchers at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA) in Karachi have studied it and reported the following: 

"Based on our research, visits and interviews it was determined that in Pakistan there are ample opportunities and favorable conditions for growing oil-palm trees. Report findings suggest that the coastal belt of Sindh has proven capability of growing oil-palm trees with a per acre yield comparable to that in major oil palm growing countries due to plenty of fertile land, irrigation water courses, supply of fertilizers, and skilled farmers available in this part of land".  

Pakistan Food Imports. Source: TDAP

Sindh Coastal Development Authority (CDA) has recently announced plans to plant 60,000 oil palm trees on an area of 1,000 acres in the current fiscal year.  An earlier project in 2020 showed that the oil content of palm fruit from Sindh's plantation in Thatta is 2% higher than the world average. 

Per Capita Wheat Consumption in Pakistan vs World. Source: Abdul Mo...

Per Capita Edible Oil Consumption in Pakistan. Source: Pakistan Gro...

Southern Indian state of Telangana has launched a much more ambitious project to plant palm oil trees on 2 million acres of land in the next four years.  To achieve this goal, the state has plans to build large dams and irrigation canals and import millions of germinated sprouts.

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[Riaz Haq]

Wheat Consumption Dynamics in
Selected Countries in Asia and Africa:
Implications for Wheat Supply by 2030 and 2050
Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb, Kai Sonder, Santiago López Ridaura and Ayman Frija

https://repository.cimmyt.org/bitstream/handle/10883/21871/64912.pd...

Wheat is the principal staple crop of Pakistan. In
TE2018, the country’s yearly per capita total wheat
consumption was 110 kg, supplying a daily per capita
calorie intake of 920 kcal and constituting 37% of the
total daily calorie intake per person. Since the 1990s,
yearly per capita wheat consumption in Pakistan has
been on a slight decline (Figure 1). While the country’s
wheat yield falls below the world average (Table 1),
Pakistan has been highly successful in achieving
wheat self-sufficiency, thanks to several strategic
imports (Figure 2). In 2019, the country produced
more than 24 million t of wheat with a yield of 2.8 t/ha
from 8.7 million ha of land. The output was enough to
meet 99% of Pakistan’s total wheat demand for 2019
-----------

For China, Rozelle and Huang (1998) projected that
considering low- and high-income growth, yearly
per capita wheat consumption in China would fall
between 80-83 kg by 2020. In 2018 however, actual
yearly per capita wheat consumption was 64 kg
(FAOSTAT, 2021a). For Pakistan, applying the AIDS
model estimation procedure and using the Household
Integrated Economic Survey 2007-08 datasets, Nazil
et al., (2012) forecasted that by 2019-20, yearly per
capita wheat consumption for Pakistan would fall
between 115-118 kg and the total demand for wheat
will be 24.2 million t. In 2018 however, actual yearly
per capita wheat consumption in Pakistan was 110
kg and the total wheat consumption was 23.3 million
t (FAOSTAT, 2021a). This demonstrates that the
majority of wheat consumption forecasts fall short
in reality and highlights the need for consumption
forecasting that uses innovative methods and models.

https://repository.cimmyt.org/bitstream/handle/10883/21871/64912.pd...

[Riaz Haq]

India’s poorest scald as cooking oil prices soar

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Feeding-Asia/India-s-poorest-scal...


India’s #poor scald as #cooking #oil prices soar. #India’s poorest are paying the highest cost for a #food #crisis long in the making and now turbocharged by events ranging from the war in #Ukraine to policy changes in global #trade. #inflation #Modi #BJP

India consumes 16.5 kg of cooking oil per capita, significantly higher than 9.5 kg in China, and nearly double 8.4 kg in the United States.
The numbers, skewed by heavier use in urban areas, mean that the world’s second most populous nation is particularly hit by the record highs. (Pakistanis consume 24 Kg per capita, the highest in the world)

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On a muggy April afternoon, Kumud Sahu wipes his face with an oily turmeric-stained handkerchief. He gulps water from a dimpled plastic bottle as he haunches on a wooden bench. It’s the only place to sit at his roadside eatery in the bustling working-class neighborhood of Jawaharlal Nehru Road in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata.

“Life has always been tough,” says Sahu, scanning the swarming crowds oblivious to the slow unraveling of the stalls that serve their affordable lunches. “But I haven’t seen tougher days than these. Business has been extremely bad and I am not sure how I can continue to feed my family.”

As the world’s largest importer of cooking oil reels from a steep ascent in its price, India’s poorest are paying the highest cost for a crisis long in the making and now turbocharged by events ranging from the war in Ukraine to policy changes in global trade.

India is reliant not only on cooking oil but on imported cooking oil. The South Asian nation consumes nearly 25 million tonnes of cooking oil a year, but produces only about 11 million tonnes. The gap is met through imports.

That creates a big and growing problem for a country whose population is expected to surpass China's and hit 1.7 billion people in the next three decades.

And experts say India will be unable to wean itself off this dependence for at least another two decades, as demand in a country that uses oil for much of its cuisine continues to far outpace production.

It is among the most disturbing examples of how a worldwide spiral in food prices has spooked billions of people and their governments. A deadly storm of pressures including war, pandemic and global heating has dramatically increased the cost of household food baskets in countries rich and poor. It has raised fears of mass impoverishment and social unrest, like that seen in neighboring Sri Lanka.

Sahu looks enervated. It has been 12 hours since he began his day in a room no bigger than 11 sq. meters, where he lives with his wife and three children. They share a bathroom with three other families in a longstanding tenement. Just before sunrise, he sets out for his eatery, cycling about 10 km. There he sells cheap, tasty lunches, oily curries with enough calories to keep his customers full until the next meal.

“Prices have increased so much that we can't imagine what will happen to the business if this trend continues,” he says, squinting in the harsh Kolkata sunlight. “I am putting in money from my savings to keep the business afloat.”

Sahu has shied from passing on the costs to his price-sensitive clientele, many of whom are shopkeepers and small business owners themselves.

With snowballing costs and a determination to keep his children in a school that is inexpensive but not free, Sahu was forced to sell a piece of rural land that he had hoped to keep as an asset for the years to come. “It bought me some time,” he said.

Pulling in around 60% of its cooking grease from overseas, India was hurting even before the Ukraine war as shipping costs, energy inflation and labor shortages, along with extreme weather, kept thrusting food and oil prices higher.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s Rising Palm & Soybean Imports: Understanding Key Drivers and Challenges
By Sohaib Jamali Senior Economist at the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

https://devpakblog.com/2022/05/30/pakistans-rising-palm-soybean-imp...

Pakistan’s imports of palm and soybean products have risen 55 percent in 1HFY22, following a 47 percent increase in FY21. While this recent growth stems from soaring international commodity prices, the overall trend is not a new phenomenon. Combined imports of palm and soybean have more than doubled over the last twenty years, rising to 7.1 percent of total imports in FY21, amid waning reliance on domestic sources (sunflower, canola, & cottonseed) for edible oil and meals for animal feed.

Palm and soybean are the world’s most used crops for edible oil and oilseed meals because of their high resource-use-efficiency, measured in terms of oil yield per hectare for oil, and protein yield in the case of meals. The former is important to meet the requirements of a growing human population and rising per capita consumption. The latter is important to feed ruminants, poultry, and aquatic foods, since protein-based meals enable faster and healthy growth of these animals.

In Pakistan’s case, the demand for edible oil is being driven both by growing population and rising per capita consumption. Contributing to the latter is a dietary preference for higher oil use, as suggested by cross country comparison of per capita edible oil consumption. And because palm oil is generally cheaper than other types of edible oils, Pakistan imports palm oil the most compared to other oils.

Similar demand drivers are at play in the case of oilseed meals. Growing population and rising per capita income are stoking the demand for poultry, livestock and farmed aquatic foods, which in turn creates a demand for oilseed meals as key components of animal feed. And following the fast paced modernisation of the domestic poultry industry, the demand for soybean meals has increased manifold. The growing modernisation of the dairy and meat industry, as evidenced by an increasing number of corporate meat and dairy brands, is also creating a demand for soybean-based meals.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan's oilseed industry to bloom under China-Pakistan agriculture cooperation

https://english.news.cn/20230227/190423d59d2a43f7ae2855a1d1472321/c...


To help Pakistan meet its edible oil demand and support its foreign exchange reserves, Chinese company Wuhan Qingfa Hesheng and Pakistani company Evyol group jointly provide high-quality hybrid canola seeds to Pakistani farmers.

GUJRANWALA, Pakistan, Feb. 27 (Xinhua) -- On a sunny February morning, the air in a small village in Pakistan's east Gujranwala district carried the sweet scent of canola flowers, which were dancing gently in the breeze.

Bees whirling on the profuse yellow blossom beaming with lush green pods were not only a view to behold, but also heralded the beginning of a new chapter in the lives of local businesspeople and farmers, who are shifting to a Chinese hybrid variety of canola seeds to reap higher yields and produce cooking oil at home.

"We sowed the new variety on 100 acres of land because of their potential to produce higher yields and more oil as compared to other oilseeds including mustard and rapeseed, which we previously used to cultivate," Intisar Ahmad Chattha, the farm's manager told Xinhua while carefully watching the pods.

Pakistan's annual consumption of cooking oil is around 5 million tons, but due to the low economic potential of oilseeds in the local market, they are not preferred by the farmers. The country has to import about 89 percent of oil to meet the demand, spending 3.6 billion U.S. dollars annually.

----
Ghazanfar Ali, head of marketing in Evyol group told Xinhua it took them 10 years to produce a variety that is compatible with the local climate, produces a good yield and is good for human health.

The crop provides an increased profit for the farmers as its standard 2 kg pack is enough to cultivate 2 acres of land, and the farmer can get 1.5 tons of yield out of it, which is over 10 percent more than the yield from other varieties currently available in Pakistan, he said, when talking about the potential of the crop.

Zhou Xusheng, director of the international business department of Wuhan Qingfa Hesheng Seed company, told Xinhua that his company is working on transferring technology to Pakistan to make it efficient in smart agriculture.

"Through this project, we want to transfer the harvesting technology through which the farmers can use some attachments on the harvesters they already have and reduce the wastage," he said.

His company also wants to introduce processing units across the country, through which even in villages people can install them and produce processed oil for themselves and sell it to others, Zhou added.

He said that the seed is suitable for the environment across Pakistan, and this year they sold 11 tons of seeds across the country, which will be cultivated on 20,000 acres, and their target for next year is 100 tons, which will bring a great change to Pakistan by helping the country become self-sufficient in edible oil production.

The Chinese company will also buy back the canola harvest from some of the farmers and send it to the edible oil factories so that both farmer and the factory owners can realize the potential and health benefits of the oil, Zhou added.

"When Pakistan imports oil, it spends a lot of money and receives only the finished product. But when oil is produced locally, it will generate job opportunities, build an industrial chain and utilize the cakes after oil extraction as power-packed canola meal for cattle," he added.

Talking about the demand for canola meal in Pakistan, Chattha said that they have over 800 cows in the dairy farms in the area and to provide them with good quality food they have to import canola meals, which is a big financial burden due to the devaluation of the local currency.

[Riaz Haq]

Edible oil’s rocky year - Profit by Pakistan Today

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/12/31/edible-oils-rocky-year/

The year 2022 was not a walk in the park for both the producers and the consumers of palm oil. The year saw historic highs and record lows in the palm oil market causing volatility and at times losses as well.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan imported Palm and Soybean oil in excess of $3.3 billion this year. This is a 33% increase as opposed to the FY21. Despite import restrictions in place. Pakistan has already imported a considerably larger amount of palm and soybean oil between Jul-Nov in FY23, than it did in FY22.

Being such a major import, the prices of palm oil are almost as important as any other global commodity. Let us have a look at how the prices of Palm oil were affected throughout the last year, and how that can act as a lesson for the years to come.

[Riaz Haq]

Palm oil's rare premium leads to 'wash out' in India -dealers | Reuters


https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/palm-oils-rare-premium-...


MUMBAI, April 19 (Reuters) - Indian buyers have opted to cancel 75,000 tonnes of palm oil purchases for the first time in many years and switch to rival soft oils, such as sunflower oil and soyoil, five industry officials told Reuters.

Palm oil usually trades at a discount to soft oils, but import restrictions by top producer Indonesia have helped to push palm oil to a premium, making sun oil and soyoil more attractive to buyers.


This has prompted some Indian buyers to reduce purchases of palm oil for May shipments and increase soft oil imports. They can do this via mutual agreements with importers to cancel the sales - a process known locally as a "wash out".

This allows a buyer to sell back a product to the seller based on a pricing formula that includes the prevailing market price.

Lower palm oil imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could weigh on Malaysian palm oil prices , but support soyoil and sunflower oil prices.


A few buyers decided to opt for a wash out because of negative margins prevailing in the local market, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy firm.

Crude palm oil (CPO) imports are currently being offered at about $1,050 a tonne, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for May delivery, while palm oil imported in the past few months is now priced between $1,000 to $1,010, dealers said.

Wash outs are relatively rare in the Indian vegetable oil industry and the quantity is usually small at around 5,000 to 10,000 tonnes, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

"Big wash out is happening because of unusual price movement in palm oil. It has been rising even as other oils are falling in the past few months," said the Mumbai-based dealer.



Price-sensitive Asian buyers traditionally rely on palm oil because of low costs and quick shipping times. But palm oil has moved to a premium at the same time as soft oil prices have dropped, partly due to a record rapeseed crop.

Palm oil's discount to rival oils was much as $500 in the December quarter, but now it is holding a rare premium of more than $30 per tonne over sunoil for May shipments, dealers said.

Indian buyers are replacing palm oil with soyoil and sunflower oil for shipments in May, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research.

India's palm oil imports in May could fall to 700,000 tonnes, compared with an average monthly import of 879,000 tonnes so far in 2022/23 marketing year ending on Oct. 31, dealers said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. It imports soybean and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

[Riaz Haq]

Tea plantation to help Pakistan reduce import bill

https://www.nation.com.pk/06-Oct-2022/tea-plantation-to-help-pakist...


ISLAMABAD-Pakistan can reduce its import bill by exploiting its great potential for growing tea on a large scale, WealthPK reported.

Tea is one of the most important high-value cash crops. Despite its low cost, tea is the most popular beverage in Pakistan. The country has great potential for tea plantation on a large scale.

Abdul Waheed, Director of National Tea and High-Value Crops Research Institute Shinkiari, told WealthPK that the current rate of population growth showed that demand for tea would continue to increase over time, putting a strain on limited foreign exchange resources. He said that Pakistan’s total import bill for tea in the fiscal year 2022 was more than $590 million.

According to a recently-conducted survey, there is a huge potential for tea cultivation in Pakistan. It says that 158,000 acres of land in Khyber Pakhtunkwa and 4,000 acres in Azad Jammu and Kashmir are suitable for tea plantation, which can not only meet the local demand but can be also exported to other countries. Abdul Waheed said that more than 15 tonnes of locally produced and processed green tea was exported to Japan during the last three to four years.

Fakhar powers Pakistan to thrashing win over New Zealand in 2nd ODI
“Tea plants can be raised both from seed and cuttings. In Tea World, tea has initially been raised through seeds because of the economic ease with which its plantation is expanded,” said the director of the research centre. Many countries like China, India, and Sri Lanka, the world-known tea producers for centuries, still raise more than 75% of tea through seeds. Due to high population pressure coupled with the low economic condition, Pakistan presently needs to grow tea. The country also needs to increase the yield of all agricultural commodities.

“Historically speaking, nations of the world have always gained self-sufficiency in quantities first before becoming quality conscious. Thus, tea quantity in the shortest possible time can be economically obtained from tea seeds and not from cuttings,” Abdul Waheed told WealthPK. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, tea is one of the most important cash crops and plays a significant role in rural development, poverty reduction and food security in exporting and developing countries. It is a principal source of livelihood for millions of people.

[Riaz Haq]

As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports. Similar uncertainty surrounds domestic meal and oil production forecasts. With expectations for better cottonseed production, total oilseed production in 2023/24 is projected to increase to 2.95 million tons, a 24 percent above than 2022/23. In line with population growth, edible oil demand is forecast to grow about 5 percent, and palm oil imports are forecast to grow accordingly, reaching 3.6 million tons (15 Kg per person) in 2023/24.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/pakistan-oilseeds-and-products-annual-7

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India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (October-September) is forecast to remain flat at 41.5 million metric tons (MMT), mostly unchanged from MY 2022/2023. Unseasonably heavy spring precipitation and a predicted El Niño weather pattern in the wake of severe April-June heatwaves will expose summer oilseed crops to greater incidences of plant stresses and thus impact yields. Oil meal production will remain steady at 20 MMT while exports will fall to 1.9 MMT, following an exceptional increase in exports in the current MY as southeast Asian demand has favored competitively priced Indian oil meals against other origins. India will remain among the largest consumers of edible oils and is forecast to import 14.5 MMT (10 Kg per person) of various oil commodities in the outyear. Global decline in oilseed prices and relatively low import duties have stabilized domestic edible oil prices, leading to record ending stocks in the current year.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-oilseeds-and-products-annual-7

[Riaz Haq]

Feature: Chinese canola crops transform Pakistan's cooking oil industry, boosts local economy-Xinhua


https://english.news.cn/asiapacific/20230529/a7d93b309d814273849cb8...

Pakistan's annual consumption of cooking oil is around 5 million tons, but due to the low economic potential of oilseeds in the local market, they are not preferred by the farmers. The country has to import about 89 percent of its oil to meet the demand, spending 3.6 billion dollars annually.

Dealers associated with oilseed distribution have said that the newly introduced variety has a high-profit margin for the farmers and, as such, it has become famous among local farmers just two years after its introduction in Pakistan.

Muhammad Rizwan, a seed distributor in Gujranwala, told Xinhua that the Chinese canola seed is resistant to diseases and has a higher yield than other previously available oilseed varieties on the market.

"Other oil seeds were sold for about 5,000 to 6,000 rupees per 40 kg on the market this year, whereas the Chinese canola was sold for up to 9,500 rupees, it also had a 20 percent to 30 percent higher yield than the other varieties," Rizwan explained.

"The seed is now a hot cake in the eyes of farmers in the Gujranwala district so we have placed a higher order than last year to the seed company to meet the demand in the next cultivation season in November this year," he added.

Last year, 11 tons of seeds were cultivated on 20,000 acres of land across the country, while this year 100 tons are expected to be cultivated due to a higher demand for the seed.

Housewife Saima Rizwan told Xinhua that she came to know about this oil six months ago from social media and how the oil extracted from Chinese canola is beneficial for health besides being cost-effective.

"I asked my husband to buy the oil and its taste was so good that we have never bought imported oil since. We cook all local dishes in the oil, and sometimes when we invite guests, they can't tell the food is cooked in canola oil rather than the commonly used palm oil," the 32-year-old told Xinhua.

Muhammad Azim, team leader of Eyvol group in Gujranwala, said that it was a bumper yield of canola this year compared to other crops, due to which farmers were very happy.

"It is a new beginning because farmers are making a good profit as consumption of locally produced oil increases," said Azim.

"As a next step, we will focus on local production of the seeds in Pakistani nurseries with the help of our Chinese friends to make the seeds more affordable for the local farmers," he said.

[Riaz Haq]

Peanuts to solve high edible oil prices issue
Pakistan, China join hands to increase planting area, crop yield

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2404516/peanuts-to-solve-high-edible-o...


Lately, Rainbow’s high-oleic-acid peanut cultivation base project was formally included in the China-Pakistan agricultural cooperation framework by the Ministry of Agriculture, China.

“As you can see, our seed registration with Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) has started. A total of five high-oleic peanut varieties for oil extraction of Runhua series have been trial-planted in Pakistan, which is expected to achieve fruitful results,” revealed Fan Changcheng, Deputy General Manager of Rainbow.

“Next, our aim is to increase the area gradually to 1,500 hectares in the coming years,” he said.

“My country has a long tradition of peanut planting. Peanuts like warm environment with sufficient sunlight, with loose and breathable sandy loam as the most suitable soil condition. The Potohar region of Punjab is the best area for peanut production,” Ijaz stated, adding that peanut seeds contain 40-50% oil and the high-oleic peanut oil is rich in unsaturated fatty acids.

“During our trial, we always focused on how the local environment can act on the quality of seeds on the whole. The varieties we selected have the highest oleic acid content, up to 75-80%, which means very high nutritional value.”

“Self-sufficient in peanut production means that we can reduce our import bill of edible oil,” said Muhammad Jahanzaib, Scientific Officer of the Oil Seed Research Programme in NARC Pakistan.

Statistics of the US Department of Agriculture showed that Pakistan’s peanut planting area in 2022-23 is about 150,000 hectares, with total output of 140,000 metric tons.

THE ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED ON THE CHINA ECONOMIC NET