Pakistan Ramps Up Nuclear Power to Boost Low-Carbon Electric Power

[Riaz Haq]

Construction of 1,100 MW nuclear power reactor K2 unit in Karachi has been completed by China National Nuclear Corporation, according to media reports. A similar reactor unit K3 will add another 1,100 MW of nuclear power to the grid, bringing the total nuclear power installed capacity of Pakistan to 3,630 MW (12% of total power) by 2022.  Hualong One reactors being installed in Pakistan are based on improved Westinghouse AP1000 design which is far safer than Chernobyl and Fukushima plants.  In addition, Pakistan is also generating  9,389  MW (about 28% of total power) of low-carbon hydroelectric power in response to rising concerns about climate change.

Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP):

With the placement of the outer containment shell, K2 is  now ready for containment and heat tests. It is scheduled to begin operations in 2020. It’s built using the Chinese HPR1000 technology, which features a dual containment design, with the outer containment providing additional protection for the primary containment.

Karachi Nuclear Power Plant K2 Unit Under Construction. Source: CNNC

KANUPP is Pakistan's first nuclear power plant where construction started in 1966 in Karachi. The plant was connected to the national grid on 18 October 1972. KANUPP, a pressurized heavy water reactor of 137 MW gross capacity was constructed by Canadian General Electric under a turnkey contract. In 1976, vendor support for spare parts and fuel was withdrawn. The PAEC undertook the task of indigenously manufacturing the required spare parts and nuclear fuel on an emergency basis and, since 1980, KANUPP has successfully operated using fuel manufactured by the PAEC, according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Here is an except of IAEA's 2018 report on nuclear power in Pakistan:

"Despite the keen interest of Pakistan in building additional nuclear plants, it took more than two decades before the second nuclear power plant started construction. This delay was due to Pakistan’s lack of access to international nuclear technology coupled with a lack of indigenous industrial infrastructure. The construction of Pakistan’s second nuclear plant, C-1, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), was made possible in 1993 with the help of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC). The plant was connected to the national grid on 13 June 2000 and has a gross capacity of 325 MW. A third nuclear power plant, C-2, with 325 MW gross capacity started commercial operation on 18 May 2011. The fourth unit, C-3, started commercial operation on 6 December 2016. It has a gross capacity of 340 MW and a similar plant, C-4, sited beside C-3, was connected to the grid on 25 June 2017. The first concrete pours to mark the start of construction of Karachi Coastal Power Project, a project containing two nuclear units, K-2 and K-3 (1100 MW each), based on an improved PWR design, were 20 August 2015 and 31 May 2016, respectively."

Pakistan Power Generation Fuel Mix. Source: Third Pole

International Energy Agency:

International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently warned that "steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals". "With nuclear power facing an uncertain future in many countries, the world risks a steep decline in its use in advanced economies that could result in billions of tonnes of additional carbon emissions", the IEA has said.

Pakistan Among 31 Countries Operating Nuclear Power Plants

Nuclear is the second-largest low-carbon power source in the world today, accounting for 10% of global electricity generation. It is second only to hydropower at 16%, according to International Energy Agency (IEA). Pakistan nuclear plants are expected to generate 3,630 MW  (12% of total power vs 10% global average) by 2022.  Pakistan is also generating  9,389  MW (about 28% of total power vs 16% global average) of low-carbon hydroelectric power in response to rising concerns about climate change.

Nuclear Plant Safety Concerns:

Activists in Pakistan have raised serious concerns about potential risks from K2 and K3 plants to the population in Karachi. Are such concerns valid?

The worst nuclear disaster in the history of nuclear power generation was at Chernobyl in present day Ukraine. One of the key reasons was that the Chernobyl plant did not have the fortified containment structure common to most nuclear power plants elsewhere in the world. KANUPP K-2 and K-3 reactors have two containment shells: primary and secondary. It is noteworthy that Bhopal Union Carbide disaster was history's worst industrial disaster, far bigger in terms of human toll than the Chernobyl disaster.

China signed a technology transfer deal with the United States in 2006 that put the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor design at the “core” of its atomic energy program. Chinese reactor manufacturers also resolved to build advanced third-generation technology in their safety review after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant disaster.

Unlike Fukushima where underground emergency cooling system failed due to flooding, the Hualong One design stores water above the reactor that can be gravity-fed to keep it cool if the pumps fail in the event of meltdown. The Chinese HPR1000 reactors employ multiple redundant generators and cooling systems to lower meltdown risk.

Hydropower Generation:

The biggest and most important source of low-carbon energy in Pakistan is its hydroelectric power plants. Pakistan ranked third in the world by adding nearly 2,500 MW of hydropower in 2018, according to Hydropower Status Report 2019.  China added the most capacity with the installation of 8,540 megawatts, followed by Brazil (3,866 MW), Pakistan (2,487 MW), Turkey (1,085 MW), Angola (668 MW), Tajikistan (605 MW), Ecuador (556 MW), India (535 MW), Norway (419 MW) and Canada (401 MW).

New Installed Hydroelectric Power Capacity in 2018. Source: Hydrowo...

Pakistan's Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) says commissioning of the 108-MW Golen Gol 2, 1,410-MW Tarbela 4th Extension and 969-MW Neelum Jhelum hydropower projects in 2018 boosted its hydroelectric generating capacity of 9,389 MW, an increase of 36% in just one year, according to Hydro Review. Hydropower now makes up about 28% of the total installed capacity of 33,836 MW as of February, 2019.   WAPDA reports contributing 25.63 billion units of hydroelectricity to the national grid during the year, “despite the fact that water flows in 2018 remained historically low.” This contribution “greatly helped the country in meeting electricity needs and lowering the electricity tariff for the consumers.”

Top 20 Countries by Newly Installed Hydropower Capacity. Source: IHA

Pakistan has the potential to generate 59,000 MW of hydropower, according to studies conducted by the nation's Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Currently, it's generating only 9,389 MW of hydroelectric power, about 16% of the estimated potential. Media reports indicate that China is prepared to finance and build another 40,000MW capacity as part of the development of the Northern Indus Cascade region which begins in Skardu in Gilgit-Baltistan and runs through to Tarbela, the site of Pakistan’s biggest dam, in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.

Pakistan has made only a small contribution to climate change through carbon emissions.  And yet, it counts among the dozen or so nations considered most vulnerable to its damaging effects. These include rising temperatures, recurring cycles of floods and droughts and resulting disruption in food production.

Summary: 

Construction of 1,100 MW nuclear power reactor K2 unit in Karachi has been completed by China National Nuclear Corporation, according to media reports. A similar reactor unit K3 will add another 1,100 MW of nuclear power to the grid, bringing the total nuclear power installed capacity of Pakistan to 3,630 MW (12% of total power) by 2022.  Hualong One reactors being installed in Pakistan are based on improved Westinghouse AP1000 design which is far safer than Chernobyl and Fukushima plants.  In addition, Pakistan is also generating  9,389  MW (about 28% of total power) of low-carbon hydroelectric power in response to rising concerns about climate change. One of the ways Pakistan can help reduce carbon emissions is by realizing its full nuclear and hydroelectric power potential by building more nuclear plants and dams. The development of the Northern Indus Cascade region to generate 40,000MW of hydropower is a significant part of this effort.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Nuclear Power in Pakistan

Recurring Cycles of Drought and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan's Response to Climate Change

Massive Oil and Gas Discovery in Pakistan: Hype vs Reality

Renewable Energy for Pakistan

Digital BRI: China and Pakistan Building Fiber, 5G Networks

LNG Imports in Pakistan

Growing Water Scarcity in Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ownership of Appliances and Vehicles in Pakistan

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

[Riaz Haq]

Special instruction issued for promotion of Solar Energy, Net-Metering

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/490951-special-instruction-issued...

Power Division has issued special instructions to all DISCOs for promoting and further easing installation of net-metering in order to provide opportunity to all electricity consumers to curtail their monthly electricity bills besides optimal utilization of solar potential of the country.

The instructions were issued on Friday during one-point agenda on net-metering meeting of Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA).

As per the latest instructions, all the DISCOs have been directed to establish one window for interested net-metering electricity consumers. The appointment of focal persons will in this regard be ensured besides their active engagement on targets assigned by the Power Division.

Each officer at operational level will be assigned targets of net-metering which will be properly monitored. These targets and their results will count for greater points during their assessment for promotion and other benefits.

All the DISCOs are further directed to ensure proper briefing of consumers during open katcheris by the respective Superintending Engineers, XEN and SDOs.

All the DISCOs will also run a comprehensive awareness campaign for educating the consumers regarding benefits of net-metering.

The meeting while emphasizing the importance of net-metering in order to tap the solar energy potential of the country, also underscored the need to extend all out facilitation to the consumers by the DISCOs.

It was noted that although the rules and regulation for net-metering are adequate, however, the practical steps taken by DISCOs are not enough to promote it in order to fully and optimally utilize the potential.

It was further directed to strictly monitor all targets in this regard.

Earlier, the meeting was informed that a total of around 900 MW solar panels have been imported in the country. There are 1,190 electricity consumers with a cumulative capacity of 26MW who have installed net-metering so far.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan added 500MW of #solar power in 2018. #Asia topped with new installations, despite declines in top three markets (#China, #India and #Japan). China alone accounted for around 45% of global additions, but this was down from nearly 54% in 2017. https://www.evwind.es/2019/06/21/photovoltaic-cumulative-capacity-i...

Photovoltaic capacity increased to 505 GW
June 21, 2019 reve
The annual global market for solar photovoltaics (PV) increased only slightly in 2018, but enough to surpass the 100 GW level (including on- and off-grid capacity) for the first time. Cumulative capacity increased approximately 25% to at least 505 GW; this compares to a global total of around 15 GW only a decade earlier. igher demand in emerging markets and in Europe, due largely to ongoing price reductions, compensated for a substantial market decline in China that had consequences around the world.

Despite the single-digit growth rate of the global market in 2018, solar PV has become the world’s fastest-growing energy technology, with gigawatt-scale markets in an increasing number of countries. 

Demand for solar PV is spreading and expanding as it becomes the most competitive option for electricity generation in a growing number of markets – for residential and commercial applications and increasingly for utility projects – even without accounting for the external costs of fossil fuels.
Eleven countries added more than 1 GW of new capacity during the year, up from 9 countries in 2017 and 7 countries in 2016, and markets around the world have begun to contribute significantly to global growth. By the end of 2018, at least 32 countries had a cumulative capacity of 1 GW or more, up from 29 countries one year earlier.
There are still challenges to address in order for solar PV to become a major electricity source worldwide, including policy and regulatory instability in many countries, financial and bankability challenges, and the need to integrate solar PV into electricity markets and systems in a fair and sustainable manner.

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Turkey followed, installing 1.6 GW for a total of 5.1 GW, already surpassing the national target for 2023. However, Turkey’s additions were down 37% relative to 2017 due to several factors, including uncertainties regarding national support schemes, issues related to land acquisition, permission and financing, as well as delays as project developers await further cost reductions.
Others in Asia to add capacity included Chinese Taipei (almost 1 GW), driven by a FIT and a target of 20 GW by 2025, as well as Pakistan (0.5 GW) and Malaysia (0.4 GW).

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan plans #renewables for a fifth of #energy supplies by 2025. Pakistan will build #wind and #solar plants to reduce reliance on gas and fuel imports and ease the burden on its #grid. #electricity #power @AJENews https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/pakistan-plans-renewables-energy...

Pakistan is planning a wave of new wind and solar plants that will expand its clean energy capacity to about fifth of its total.

The South Asian nation plans to increase its renewables by more than four times by adding as much as 7 gigawatts to bring its total to 8-9 gigawatts by 2025, said Nadeem Babar, head of Pakistan’s energy task force. The new energy policy that targets lifting the country’s total generation capacity by 40% to 42-43 gigawatts is expected to be approved within a month, he said.

The shift to clean generation comes after Pakistan has nearly bridged a power deficit by adding 10 gigawatts of capacity in the past six years to ease long, unannounced blackouts in major cities. Most of that capacity was coal and natural gas fired plants that were financed by China as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

“The general policy is to have much higher emphasis on renewables over the next 10 years,’’ Babar said in a phone interview this month. Hydroelectric generation isn’t included in the renewable figures and is expected to account for 35% of the nation’s capacity by 2025.

As Pakistan has beefed up power generation its grid has come under increasing pressure and many transmission lines are already operating at full capacity. To alleviate congestion the country is working with the World Bank to identify the best locations to site new renewable generation.

Pakistan plans to auction the right to build renewable capacity annually starting in December. It will also deregulate clean energy for companies that want to build a wind farm or use solar panels to supply private businesses, said Babar.

Renewable generation is also expected to reduce the country’s costs to import power generation fuels such as coal and natural gas. Pakistan’s petroleum product imports, which fuel both power plants and vehicles, accounted for about $13 billion of the country’s $50 billion total imports in the eleven months ended May.
As well, a $3.5 billion joint venture with China to dig up coal from Pakistan’s Thar desert generated electricity for the first time this month.

“Last year, 41% of generation was on imported fuels,” said Babar. “That is just way too high.”

[Riaz Haq]

#Chinese #investment in #renewables triples under Belt and Road initiative (#BRI). Biggest recipient of Belt & Road investment was #Pakistan, where equity investments from #China accounted for 36.8% of the country’s new #wind capacity from 2014 to 2018. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/07/30/chinese-investment-in-renewa...

A report by Greenpeace has found in the five years since China announced the continent spanning ‘One Belt, One Road’ infrastructure plan, investment in Belt & Road countries has supported 12.6 GW of wind and solar power generation capacity. That is almost three times the 450 MW that came online in the territories before 2014. The initiative has also supported 68 GW of new coal capacity.

A study published this week by environmental charity Greenpeace found China’s Belt & Road Initiative has led an investment surge in energy infrastructure in the regions covered by the plan – particularly south and Southeast Asia – over the past five years.

According to the NGO, Chinese equity investment in solar, wind and coal power projects in south and Southeast Asia rose 1,370% during 2014-2019, compared to the previous five years.

The Greenpeace study shows 12,622 MW of wind and solar power generation capacity along the Belt & Road route was supported by Chinese equity investment, alongside 67.9 GW of coal capacity. Some 93% of the wind and solar investment – and 94% of the coal projects – went to south and Southeast Asia.

“Solar now presents a serious rebuttal to any pattern of Chinese overseas pro-coal bias,” said Liu Junyan, a Beijing-based climate and energy campaigner with Greenpeace East Asia. “Chinese investors’ ratio of coal to solar is now the same at home and abroad – both are still six-to-one coal, unfortunately, but I’m amazed to see what five years of equity investment in solar made possible.”


Of the 12.6 GW of renewables capacity to be funded by Chinese investment, 1.7 GW has already been installed – 1.2 GW of it solar. For PV, that represents a 280% increase in capacity funded through equity investment. At the end of last year, a further 10.8 GW project pipeline in Belt & Road countries had received equity investment from Chinese companies. The largest single recipient of Belt & Road related investment was Pakistan, where equity investments from China accounted for 36.8% of the country’s new wind capacity from 2014 to 2018.

The Belt & Road route covers a wide corridor along the former overland Silk Road and maritime Spice Route from China to Europe across Asia and includes central Asia, the Middle East, parts of Africa and southern Europe.

For renewables and coal, equity in projects is the primary form of investment. Greenpeace pointed out for coal the rise of renewables represents a serious threat.

“Equity ties Chinese investors to overseas coal projects for the long run,” said Wang Yan, of Greenpeace East Asia. “And there’s a slew of financial, environmental and regulatory risks on the horizon. But the equity model also gives Chinese enterprises license to invest in a variety of projects. It’s Beijing’s job to educate Chinese companies on coal risks and the potential of equity investment in renewables before a series of bad investments put a stink on the whole Belt & Road.”

[Riaz Haq]

Experts see space for ample growth in Pakistan’s civil nuclear energy sector

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/508871-experts-see-space-for-ample...

Brigadier Kazmi said Pakistan’s nuclear energy sector had contributed to the socio-economic uplift of the county and there was ample space for growth in this industry.

“The nuclear energy sector has been playing a very important role in power generation, minerals exploration, developing high-yield stress-tolerant crops, cancer treatment, designing and fabrication of industrial plants and equipment and human resource development for many years.”

He said Pakistan is one of the countries in the world that have operated a complete nuclear fuel cycle and is amongst 30 countries that have nuclear power plants in operation. “Pakistan has a remarkable experience in safe and secure operation of nuclear power plants. We have the expertise and the ability to supply items, goods and services for a full range of nuclear applications for peaceful uses.”

Pakistan has established four agriculture centres that use energy for optimisation of important crop varieties, development of better methods for conservation of inputs and products, in addition to maximum use of innovation technologies.

Brigadier Kazmi further stated that safety and security were an integral part of any nuclear program and vital for saving humans from technology and ensuring that humans did not misuse the technology.

Vice Chancellor Professor Dr Khalid Mahmood Iraqi said that we all are convinced that Pakistan is a responsible state and uses its nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

“When we have a glance at the rapidly growing population of Pakistan and even the faster growing power needs of this population, one can convincingly understand that it is impossible to meet these needs by use of the conventional methods and techniques for power generation. Our nuclear plants are significantly (not sufficiently though) helping power requirements.”

He expressed that Pakistan became a nuclear power 21 years ago and acquiring this status was the only choice because the government and the people well understood the geo-political scenario and the history of its relations with the neighbours.

Prof Iraqi said that Pakistan consistently stands by its policy to develop an efficient and consumer- centric power generation, transmission and distribution system that meets the needs of its people and supports the country’s economy in a sustainable and affordable manner.

He further said that the main concern of our nuclear plants has been to completely eliminate power loadshedding, reducing the cost of electricity to affordable level for the citizens, and increasing revenue collection to support its economy.

During the recent years, according to the vice chancellors, our industries have faced a significant setback due to power deficit, which has ultimately placed a negative impact on the life of a considerable portion of our population in social and economic forms.

The nuclear power for peaceful use is our highly-deserved priority, he added. Professor Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Director Politics and International Relations, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, observed that whenever there is high alert at the boarders, Pakistan faces propaganda of being an irresponsible nuclear state despite the fact that Pakistan has never violated the Geneva Convention and always respects all international humanitarian laws and agreements.

He observed that Pakistan’s nuclear program is much better than its neighbouring country. The nuclear energy could be used for the benefit of civilians or to gain military power, he said, adding that Pakistan always gives priority to peaceful use of nuclear energy over the race to nuclear weapons.

]

[Riaz Haq]

As part of #UK #DFID’s Sustainable Energy and Economic Development (SEED) program, Karandaaz will invest over £15 million to promote #renewableenergy generation and efficiency measures in #Pakistani businesses. https://www.phoneworld.com.pk/renewable-energy-generation/


Speaking at the occasion, Joanna Reid, Head of DFID Pakistan said,

“Less than 4% of Pakistan’s electricity is generated from renewable sources. We are working to change that I believe that this investment in sustainable energy will go a long way in promoting energy-efficient and environment-friendly options for businesses, and at the same time help to generate more jobs and achieve greater prosperity.”

Speaking at the occasion, Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, Chairperson Karandaaz said,

“Economic and urban development is a national priority for Pakistan. With 39% of the population residing in cities, Pakistan is not only the most urbanised, but also the fastest urbanizing country in South Asia. Pakistani cities’ contribution to its GDP growth however, is much lower than in peer countries. It has been estimated by the IFC that as much as 11%-14% of the energy utilised in Pakistan could be saved through energy conservation and efficiency measures, which is equivalent to two hours of power supply each day. This grant from DFID will help bridge the financing gap and enable the emergence of sustainable and efficient energy for Pakistan’s private sector, resulting in more vibrant and economically friendly cities, more competitive businesses and more jobs all leading to Pakistan moving closer to its targets as set under SDGs.”

Speaking at the occasion, Ali Sarfraz, CEO Karandaaz said,

“Karandaaz is proud to have established itself in a short span of time as a trusted partner of DFID to implement this additional focused financing programme for sustainable energy and energy efficiency in Pakistan. We will work closely with multilateral partners to pave the way for increased investments in the sustainable energy sector. This will also promote low carbon growth.”

According to the latest World Bank study, more than 75% of Pakistani firms cite energy provision as a major constraint to growth. Where available, electricity provision is costly and inefficient, lowering the competitiveness of industry and services. Daily load shedding and large leakages in the distribution system mean manufacturing firms cite access to electricity amongst the top obstacles to growth.

Climate and environment are a global priority for DFID. Domestically and internationally, the UK has been leading the way on climate change. This programme is also an opportunity for Pakistan to draw on UK expertise in clean energy for greener growth.

According to the latest World Bank study, more than 75% of Pakistani firms cite energy provision as a major constraint to growth.
According to the Global Competitiveness Report, energy shortage has directly impeded Pakistan’s ability to compete in international markets for Pakistan’s export sector. Widespread use of renewable energy and energy efficiency is yet to kick off. 17% of the energy utilised in Pakistan could be saved through energy conservation and efficiency measures, which according to some estimates is equivalent to two hours of power supply each day.

A market assessment conducted by the IFC in 2014 found that potential savings range from 11%-14%. The same assessment estimated the demand for renewable energy investment across six industrial sectors at $2.2 billion. Incentives for firms and residences to switch to renewables have been initiated, but these have so far proven ineffective and the use of energy from renewable sources, excluding hydropower, is still under 4% of total energy generation as estimated by Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan.

[Riaz Haq]

Huge #Pakistan Thar mine shows #power of #coal. In Cholistan Desert, Pak is building a #solar farm which will expand to 8X the size of New York’s Central Park. Gov't has the ambition to generate 60% of its power from #renewable sources in about a decade https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/09/asia-pacific/science-h...

In the flat scrubland of Pakistan’s scorching Thar Desert, hundreds of workers have been toiling for two years in the vast open pit of the Sindh Engro Coal Mining Co. Taking three-hour breaks during the hottest part of the day and living in a makeshift village of shipping containers, they are digging for fuel to sustain a $3.5 billion power project. So far they have scraped away about 500 feet (150 meters) of Aeolian sand, dirt and coal to create a hole a mile (1.6 km) wide.

Far to the north, in the Cholistan Desert, lie the skeletal beginnings of a solar farm that is supposed to expand to eight times the size of New York’s Central Park. It is the largest solar project in Pakistan, where the government has recently announced an ambitious plan to generate 60 percent of its power from renewable sources in about a decade.

If these grand developments in the desert suggest that coal and solar are in a close-run contest, they are not. Before 2016, Pakistan had a single coal-fired plant. It now has nine, supplying 15 percent of the nation’s electricity, with another four under construction. Solar power provides about 1 percent of energy needs and is getting a tiny sliver of investment compared with what is going into coal. Solar and other renewables may someday eliminate Pakistan’s dependence on coal, but that day is probably decades away.

And that is fine as far as Akhtar Mohammad is concerned. “Coal is good. It’s cheap,” he said at his roadside kiosk in Port Qasim on the outskirts of Karachi, where air pollution is “among the most severe in the world,” according to the nongovernmental Pakistan Air Quality Initiative. “There is a lot of smoke and bad air already. We need electricity — any fuel, it doesn’t matter.”

Mohammad’s pragmatism sums up the planet’s quandary. “Coal is the absolute No. 1 cause of carbon emissions globally and the leading driver of climate change,” said Tim Buckley, Sydney-based director of energy finance studies at the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis.

But though wealthy nations may be able to afford to wean themselves off coal, which is one of the biggest contributors of greenhouse gases, in countries where electricity is scarce, unreliable or unaffordable, local politics often takes precedence over economics: Coal remains the cheap fallback.

Dozens of coal plants in Asia
Especially in Asia, dozens of coal plants have come on line in recent years or are in the planning stages — with a normal lifetime of almost half a century. In South and Southeast Asia, coal burning is expected to increase about 3.5 percent a year for the next two decades, according to the International Energy Agency. Globally, the IEA predicts, coal demand won’t peak until 2040. And that may be optimistic. Forecasts often assume governments will choose the cheapest option based on optimum efficiency while factoring in environmental constraints and the falling cost of solar and wind power.

Coal consumption won’t decline as significantly as people think, says Shirley Zhang, Wood Mackenzie Ltd.’s principal Asia-Pacific coal analyst. On the one hand, annual global sea-borne coal trade probably peaked last year at 980 million tons. On the other hand, from now until 2040, it will decline by only 20 million tons, she says. Despite the rise of renewables, the roll call of governments adding coal-fired plants includes four of the world’s five most populous nations: China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan.

[Riaz Haq]

How #cleantech can help power #Pakistan's #green #revolution. Pakistan is 8th-most affected country from #ClimateChange #CPEC must include #renewables in its integrated energy planning in Pakistan https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/how-cleantech-can-help-power... via @wef

Pakistan has been the 8th-most affected country when it comes to climate change. Although the government recognizes that vulnerability, there is a lot of room for forming an effective adaptation plan.

Pakistan has set aside 7.6 billion rupees ($47 million) for addressing climate change in its 2019-2020 budget. This will be spent on new initiatives and ongoing schemes including climate-resilient urban settlements, the establishment of a Geomatic Centre for Climate Change and of a Pakistan Water, Sanitation & Hygiene Strategic Planning and Coordination Cell, as well as sustainable land management projects to combat desertification. Pakistan planted a billion trees in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region, and there is a commitment to plant 10 billion trees over the next five-to-eight years.

But governments cannot achieve climate change targets by themselves. Increasing public-private partnerships are required. Global trends in innovation have led to the advent of ‘cleantech’ - technological innovations with sustainable aims, such as reducing our carbon footprint, meeting the demands for clean energy, cleaner air and water, producing healthy food for our ever-growing population, and the optimal utilization of finite resources.


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The government should provide basic funding for research by providing grants to universities and other researchers, and offering tax credits on private sector research. In Pakistan, which has many energy projects in the pipeline through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, the government should include renewables in its integrated energy planning, in order to attract investment at scale in cleantech, and should include cleantech targets in primary legislation, provide green financing options and most importantly phase out fossil fuel subsidies. Its focus must now be on greening projects across all sectors throughout the country.

[Riaz Haq]

"The week before I arrived in Jacobabad, the city had reached a scorching 51.1°C (124°F. If the planet continues warming at an accelerated rate, it won’t just be the people of Jacobabad who know what it’s like" #Jacobabad #Pakistan #Heat #ClimateChange
https://bit.ly/32DZOLu?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social...

It’s just after 7 in the morning in the Pakistani city of Jacobabad, and donkey-cart driver Ahsan Khosoo is already drenched in sweat. For the past two hours, the 24-year-old laborer has been hauling jugs of drinking water to local residences. When the water invariably spills from the blue jerricans, it hits the pavement with an audible hiss and turns to steam. It’s hot, he agrees, but that’s not an excuse to stop. The heat will only increase as the day wears on, and what choice does he have? “Even if it were so hot as if the land were on fire, we would keep working.” He pauses to douse his head with a bucket of water.

Jacobabad may well be the hottest city in Pakistan, in Asia and possibly in the world. Khosoo shakes his head in resignation. “Climate change. It’s the problem of our area. Gradually the temperatures are rising, and next year it will increase even more.”

The week before I arrived in Jacobabad, the city had reached a scorching 51.1°C (124°F). Similar temperatures in Sahiwal, in a neighboring province, combined with a power outage, had killed eight babies in a hospital ICU when the air-conditioning cut out. Summer in Sindh province is no joke. People die.

To avoid the heat, tractor drivers in this largely agricultural area till the fields at night and farmers take breaks from noon to 3, but if life stopped every time the temperature surpassed 40°C (104°F), nothing would ever get done. “Even when it’s 52°C to 53°C, we work,” says Mai Latifan Khatoom, a young woman working in a nearby field.

The straw has to be gathered, the seeds winnowed, the fields burned, the soil turned, and there are only so many hours in the day. She has passed out a few times from the heat, and often gets dizzy, but “if we miss one day, the work doesn’t get done and we don’t get paid.”

If the planet continues warming at an accelerated rate, it won’t be just the people of Jacobabad who live through 50°C summers. Everyone will. Heat waves blistered countries across the northern hemisphere this summer. In July, all-time heat records were topped in Germany, Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Wildfires raged in the Arctic, and Greenland’s ice sheet melted at a record rate. Globally, July was the hottest month ever recorded.

Climate scientists caution that no spike in weather activity can be directly attributable to climate change. Instead, they say, we should be looking at patterns over time. But globally, 18 of the 19 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001. I asked Camilo Mora, a climate scientist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa who in 2017 published an alarming study about the link between climate change and increased incidences of deadly heat waves, if this was the new normal for Europe. He laughed. The new normal, he says, is likely to be far worse. It’s likely to look something like Jacobabad.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan cannot accelerate #economic growth without a robust #power production and supply system in place. It has plan to develop 120 new #electricity projects to add 74,448 megawatts to the system till 2040 from hydel, domestic coal and renewable sources https://tribune.com.pk/story/2073522/2-pakistan-draws-plan-add-7444...

“In the year 2040, the nominal production capacity in the system will stand at 98,091MW against projected peak load (demand) of 80,425MW,” the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) said in a study titled “Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2018-40”. In 2018, the nominal capacity and demand matched quite closely as the nominal capacity from all generation sources hovered around 27,715MW whereas the demand was close to 26,700MW.

In 2019, the gap between nominal capacity and demand is steadily widening and has started surpassing the peak load in the system. It can be observed that a significant surplus of around 17,600MW remains between the projected demand and installed capacity, according to the study. Sufficient generation has been planned to be added by 2040 to satisfy the 1% LOLP (loss of load probability) criteria and add sufficient reserves to the system.

The cumulative nominal capacity will be approximately 62,979MW whereas the peak load is projected at 50,306MW in the year 2032, thus a wide gap of around 13,000MW between the two parameters and the capacity will be in surplus compared to demand, according to the study.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has uploaded the comprehensive study on its website to invite the stakeholders and public feedback, incorporate their concerns, if any, and give final shape to the document.

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It projected the peak power demand would grow by an average (compound annual growth rate) of 4.12% per year and supply by 5.22%, considering the gross domestic product (GDP) grows at a low rate of 4.5% per year from 2018-2040. In the scenario where GDP grows at a medium pace of 5.5% over the years, the peak power demand is estimated to rise by 5.13% per year and supply by 6.24%. Power demand and supply are anticipated to grow by 6.67% and 7.80% respectively if the GDP growth rate is high at 7% from 2018-2040.