Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan Demonstrated Effectiveness as Crisis Leader

[Riaz Haq]

Prime Minister Imran Khan has effectively led Pakistan through multiple crises in the last 4 years. Khan inherited dangerously low forex reserves in 2018 which are now at  $23 billion, near the highest level in the nation's history. The COVID pandemic that hampered Pakistan's recovery has been handled well with the fully vaccinated rate for the eligible population at more than 75%. Not only has Khan deftly navigated his nation through these crises but his government has also revived the country's economy and grown exports by 26%.  Domestic savings rate recovered to nearly 17% after plunging to a low of 12% in 2018.  The year 2021 was a banner year for Pakistan's technology startups that raised over $350 million in funding, more than the amount raised in the previous 5 years. Manufacturing and construction industries are enjoying a boom last seen during the Musharraf years in 2000-2007. 

Pakistan has pursued an independent foreign policy under the PTI government. The nation has maintained friendly ties with all great powers, including China, Russia and the United States, as well the Islamic world. At a recent OIC foreign ministers' summit in Islamabad, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi attended and endorsed OIC's support for the movement for “right to self-determination” in Jammu and Kashmir.

Historic Inflation Rates in India & Pakistan. Source: World Bank

Rising prices of food and fuel are still a major issue for the people of Pakistan and the rest of the world. Recent geopolitical crisis with the Russian invasion of Ukraine has only served to accelerate global inflation. It presents a serious challenge to the governments in Pakistan and elsewhere in the world. 

Pakistan's opposition parties have recently come together to try to topple Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. These opposition parties have little in common other than their hunger for power. If they succeed, the country will plunge into yet another period of instability and uncertainty that will reverse progress made in the last few years to stabilize the country's economy. 

Pakistan's Exports:

Pakistan's exports of goods and services have jumped 26% to $25 billion in the first 8 months of the current fiscal year, up from $20 billion in the same period last year. A key reason for recurring balance of payments crises and IMF bailouts has been the lack of growth in Pakistan's exports. 

Pakistan Exports in First 8 Months (July 21-Feb 22) in FY 22. Sourc...

The 26% export growth is particularly welcome after several years of stagnation seen during the PML N government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. 

Job Creation: 

Pakistan’s economy created 5.5 million jobs during the past three years –on an average 1.84 million jobs a year, which is far higher than yearly average of creation of new jobs during the 2008-18 decade, according to the Labor Force Survey (LFS) published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). 

Pakistan Employment By Sectors. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

For the first time in recorded history, the labor force participation rate in Pakistan is now higher than in India, according to the ILO/World Bank estimates.

Labor Participation Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: World Bank...

 

 

Unemployment rate in Pakistan is just 4.3% in spite of COVID19 pandemic. Jobless rate in India is 8%, much higher than in Pakistan. 

 

Unemployment Rate in India and Pakistan. Source: ILO/World Bank

 

Savings Rate:

Pakistan's domestic savings rate recovered to nearly 17% after plunging to a low of 12% in 2018. Savings are extremely important for increased investment to spur GDP growth in any country, including Pakistan.

Pakistan Savings Rate. Source: Global Economy

IMF Bailout:

Pakistan's forex reserves were running dangerously low forcing the country to seek a $6 billion IMF bailout in 2018 to avoid default.  The total reserves now exceed $22 billion.

Pakistan Forex Reserves 2017-2022. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Pakistan Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP. Source: US Fed

Pakistan External Debt as Percentage of GDP. Source: US Fed

Reko Diq Mining Deal Revival: 

Prime Minister Imran Khan's government recently resolved an $11 billion in damages that the country faced for improperly canceling a huge copper-gold mining deal in Balochistan.  

Reko Diq is the world's 4th largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry deposit with over 14 million tons of copper and 21 million ounces of gold. The project was abandoned in 2011 after a Pakistan Supreme Court bench headed by former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry canceled the mining license granted to Tethyan Copper Company (TCC), a joint venture between Canada's Barrick Gold and Antofagasta Minerals of Chile. TCC challenged the cancellation in the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Dispute (ICSID). On July 12, 2019, the ICSID Tribunal awarded TCC $5.894 billion plus interest of  $700,000 per day in damages against Pakistan. As of 1 March 2022, the award stood at $6.5 billion. The new agreement between Barrick Gold Corporation  and the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan does away with this award. It also increases the share of the project owned by Pakistan from 25% to 50%, brings in $10 billion investment, the largest single investment in the country, and creates 8,000 jobs. Reko Diq is part of the Tethyan metallogenic belt (TMB) that extends from the Balkans in Europe to Pakistan including Serbo-Macedonian, Anatolian, Takab, Kerman and Chagai metallogenic belts. It is believed to be rich in copper and gold deposits.

Manufacturing and Construction Boom: 

Large scale manufacturing grew by 8.2% in February 2022,  after posting 7.6% growth during July-Jan FY22.  

QIM Index 2019-22. Source: APP

Pakistan Large Scale Manufacturing Index. Source: Mettis Global

The LSMI Quantum Index Number (QIM) hit an all-time high of 136.2 points in January, 2022. It averaged 120 points during July-January (2021-22), up from 111.5 points during July-January (2020-21), showing growth of 7.6%, according to latest PBS data.

Cement shipments in Pakistan. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufactu...

Pakistan cement production has increased by double digits to respond to demand for housing and infrastructure construction on Prime Minister Imran Khan's watch. 

Technology Boom:

The year 2021 was a banner year for technology startups in Pakistan.  There was a 437% jump in investments in the startups, raising a total of $352 million across 72 deals in 2021, according to Aljazeera. 

Pakistan Startup Investments. Source: Aljazeera

Pakistan technology exports have soared 30% to $1.7 billion in the first 8 months of the current fiscal year, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. 

Expansion of Social Safety Net:

Pakistan's PTI government has built South Asia’s first digital National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER) as a part of its ambitious effort to build a basic social safety net. The Ehsaas (also known as BISP- Benazir Income Support)) program's socio-economic registry includes household information by  geography, age, income, education, health, disability, employment, energy consumption, land and livestock holdings etc. Ehsaas Programs include both Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCT) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT). Unconditional Cash Transfers are made only to people living in extreme poverty or distress. Conditional Cash Transfers like Waseela-e-Taleem and Nashonuma  are given for education and nutrition respectively.  In addition, there are feeding centers (langars) for the hungry and shelters (panahgahs) for the homeless. 

OIC Foreign Ministers in Islamabad:

Recent conference of Islamic countries foreign ministers hosted by Pakistan in Islamabad was attended by 56 nations. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi attended as a special guest. Here's an excerpt of the Islamabad Declaration issued at the conclusion of the two-day conference:

“We declare that the final settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions is indispensable for durable peace in South Asia. We reiterate our call on India to: a) reverse its unilateral and illegal measures instituted since 5th August 2019; b) cease its oppression and human rights violations against the Kashmiris in IIOJK; c) halt and reverse attempts to alter the demographic structure and to redraw electoral constituencies in IIOJK; and d) take concrete and meaningful steps for full implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir,”

Response to Indian hostility:

Prime Minister Imran Khan's government won praise for its handling of India's aggression with unprovoked air strikes in Balakot in February 2019. Pakistan responded with "Operation Swift Retort", shot down two Indian fighter jets and captured an Indian Air Force pilot. But Khan's government avoided further escalation of the incident. Similarly, Pakistan responded calmly to the "accidental firing" of Indian Brahmos cruise missile into Pakistan that could have easily escalated into a full-scale war between two nuclear-armed neighbors. 

No-Confidence Vote:

Pakistan's opposition parties have recently come together to try to topple Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. These opposition parties have little in common other than their hunger for power. If they succeed, the country will plunge into yet another period of instability and uncertainty that will reverse progress made in the last few years to stabilize the country's economy. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Banner Year For Pakistani Tech Startups

Pakistan to Be World's 7th Largest Consumer Market By 2030

Sehat Card: Universal Healthcare in Pakistan

Textile Boom in Pakistan

Construction and Manufacturing Driving Pakistan's Recovery

Demographic Dividend and Record Remittances

Mobile Phone Manufacturing in Pakistan

Covid Crisis in India

Pakistan's COVID Handling

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network

[Riaz Haq]

Barrick - Second Cohort of Graduates from Balochistan Selected for Reko Diq ‘International Graduate Development Program’


https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2024/Second-Cohor...

KARACHI – Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC) is proud to announce the selection of eighteen talented young graduates from Balochistan for the second cohort of the prestigious RDMC International Graduate Development Program (IGP). As part of its to commitment to develop local and national employees, Barrick, the operator of RDMC, launched the International Graduate Development Program for the Reko Diq project in July 2023.

Welcoming IGP 2024 cohort at a ceremony in Karachi, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow said, “We are excited to have you join the Reko Diq International Graduate Development Program. Since its inception this program has aimed to engage young graduates like you from Balochistan to equip them with the skills necessary for successful careers at Reko Diq and in the mining industry. I would urge you to embrace this opportunity to learn, collaborate and shape the future of the Reko Diq project, your province and the country.”

For the 2024 program, a rigorous merit-based selection process led to the identification of eighteen exceptional graduates from a competitive pool of over 3,000 applicants. Among those selected are four women, underscoring Barrick's commitment to gender diversity within the mining sector. The graduates hold degrees in various fields, including Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Geological Engineering, Civil Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Mining Engineering, and Geology.

Like the selected graduates of 2023, this second batch of talented youth from Balochistan will embark on an intensive two-year on-the-job training program at Barrick’s mine sites at of Veladero in Argentina and Lumwana in Zambia. This hands-on experience is designed to equip them with practical skills and insights into world-class mining operations. Upon completion of the program, graduates typically return to Barrick operations in their home country, contributing to driving positive change in their communities.

The selected cohort represents a diverse range of districts in Balochistan, including Panjgur, Gwadar, Quetta, Loralai, Khuzdar, Noshki, Musa Khel, Killa Saifullah, Zhob, and the Chagai district where Reko Diq is located. Their participation in the program not only helps to address the regional skills gap but also promotes local empowerment and economic development.

[Riaz Haq]

Can Critical Minerals Redefine Pakistan-US Relations? – The Diplomat

Pakistan’s mineral wealth is vast but underdeveloped. The Reko Diq mine in Balochistan, one of the world’s largest untapped copper-gold reserves, holds an estimated 5.9 billion tons of ore. Similarly, northern regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are believed to harbor lithium reserves, critical for renewable energy technologies. The Thar coalfield in Sindh, with 175 billion tons of lignite, further underscores Pakistan’s resource potential.

https://thediplomat.com/2025/02/can-critical-minerals-redefine-paki...

Pakistan and the United States, long bound by a security-centric relationship, may be on the cusp of a transformation as Islamabad explores proposals to attract the newly inaugurated Trump administration with stakes in its critical mineral reserves and other business ventures.

The prospect gained traction when U.S. businessman Gentry Beach, believed to be close to U.S. President Donald Trump, visited Pakistan earlier this month, promising billions in investments for mining and mineral projects.

“America cares about Pakistan. And I believe that together we can be very strong,” Beach said. “And we need Pakistan. You are our front face in this entire region, very important,” he continued, expressing optimism for bright future bilateral ties and economic cooperation between the two countries.

“Pakistan has something that America needs, and America has something that Pakistan needs,” Beach said, referencing the country’s mineral reserves. “That’s a wonderful situation for both of us to be in.”

It is too early to determine if Beach’s view aligns with a policy change in the Trump-led White House. His visit comes amid widespread concern in Pakistan about Washington’s disinterest in the country, following its withdrawal from Afghanistan and the geopolitical complexities surrounding the region.

The Pakistan-U.S. relationship has historically been dominated by security cooperation, with limited economic engagement. Bilateral trade between the two nations stands at a modest $6 billion annually, heavily tilted in favor of Pakistan exports.

For Pakistan, increased U.S. investment in its mineral sector could provide a much-needed economic boost, create jobs, and enhance infrastructure development. However, the success of this implausible pivot hinges on Pakistan overcoming significant geopolitical and domestic challenges to inflame Washington’s interest in a convincing manner.

[Riaz Haq]

Reko Diq Mining Company hosts open public forum in Nokkundi

https://www.app.com.pk/domestic/reko-diq-mining-company-hosts-open-...


QUETTA, Feb 21 (APP):Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC) held an open public forum in Nokkundi held at RDMC Technical Institute, organized by The Hunar Foundation.
The event saw active participation from a diverse group of local stake holders including youth from Nokkundi. Notable attendees included Haji Amanullah Kubdani, Maula Bakhsh Alezai of the National Party, Wahid Bakhsh Sherzai, Nizam Lashari, Babu Razzaq Sasoli, and Muhammad Anwar from the BNP.
During the forum, RDMC’s team provided attendees with important updates and insights on various community development initiatives, with a particular focus on the skills development program run in collaboration with The Hunar Foundation and the Mother & Child Health Center managed by the Indus Hospital Network.

RDMC’s Community Engagement Manager Ali Dost Yallanzai, Community Investment Lead Essa Tahir Sanjrani, HR Lead Inayat Kubdani, and Community Engagement Lead Noor Khan Mengal addressed a range of queries from community members.
A question regarding the publication of employee lists was addressed by explaining that, in line with international HR best practices, RDMC is committed to protecting employees’ privacy and safety and, as such, cannot disclose personal information about specific employees publicly.
Regarding local hiring, it was highlighted that as of January 2025, 78 percent of RDMC’s workforce is from Balochistan, with over 50 percent from Chagai, the majority of whom are from Nokkundi.

The forum also featured presentations from Qazi Taimoor Sanjrani, Program Manager at The Hunar Foundation, and Sher Jan Baloch, Operations Manager at Indus Hospital. These presentations highlighted the significant contributions made by both organizations, particularly regarding their local workforce.
The community was informed that, as RDMC partners, both The Hunar Foundation and Indus Hospital prioritize local hiring. Over 95 percent of their employees are from Balochistan, with the majority coming from Chagai district.
The community expressed their gratitude and appreciation for RDMC’s commitment to transparency and engagement through the organization of this open forum.