Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan Demonstrated Effectiveness as Crisis Leader

[Riaz Haq]

Prime Minister Imran Khan has effectively led Pakistan through multiple crises in the last 4 years. Khan inherited dangerously low forex reserves in 2018 which are now at  $23 billion, near the highest level in the nation's history. The COVID pandemic that hampered Pakistan's recovery has been handled well with the fully vaccinated rate for the eligible population at more than 75%. Not only has Khan deftly navigated his nation through these crises but his government has also revived the country's economy and grown exports by 26%.  Domestic savings rate recovered to nearly 17% after plunging to a low of 12% in 2018.  The year 2021 was a banner year for Pakistan's technology startups that raised over $350 million in funding, more than the amount raised in the previous 5 years. Manufacturing and construction industries are enjoying a boom last seen during the Musharraf years in 2000-2007. 

Pakistan has pursued an independent foreign policy under the PTI government. The nation has maintained friendly ties with all great powers, including China, Russia and the United States, as well the Islamic world. At a recent OIC foreign ministers' summit in Islamabad, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi attended and endorsed OIC's support for the movement for “right to self-determination” in Jammu and Kashmir.

Historic Inflation Rates in India & Pakistan. Source: World Bank

Rising prices of food and fuel are still a major issue for the people of Pakistan and the rest of the world. Recent geopolitical crisis with the Russian invasion of Ukraine has only served to accelerate global inflation. It presents a serious challenge to the governments in Pakistan and elsewhere in the world. 

Pakistan's opposition parties have recently come together to try to topple Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. These opposition parties have little in common other than their hunger for power. If they succeed, the country will plunge into yet another period of instability and uncertainty that will reverse progress made in the last few years to stabilize the country's economy. 

Pakistan's Exports:

Pakistan's exports of goods and services have jumped 26% to $25 billion in the first 8 months of the current fiscal year, up from $20 billion in the same period last year. A key reason for recurring balance of payments crises and IMF bailouts has been the lack of growth in Pakistan's exports. 

Pakistan Exports in First 8 Months (July 21-Feb 22) in FY 22. Sourc...

The 26% export growth is particularly welcome after several years of stagnation seen during the PML N government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. 

Job Creation: 

Pakistan’s economy created 5.5 million jobs during the past three years –on an average 1.84 million jobs a year, which is far higher than yearly average of creation of new jobs during the 2008-18 decade, according to the Labor Force Survey (LFS) published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). 

Pakistan Employment By Sectors. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

For the first time in recorded history, the labor force participation rate in Pakistan is now higher than in India, according to the ILO/World Bank estimates.

Labor Participation Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: World Bank...

 

 

Unemployment rate in Pakistan is just 4.3% in spite of COVID19 pandemic. Jobless rate in India is 8%, much higher than in Pakistan. 

 

Unemployment Rate in India and Pakistan. Source: ILO/World Bank

 

Savings Rate:

Pakistan's domestic savings rate recovered to nearly 17% after plunging to a low of 12% in 2018. Savings are extremely important for increased investment to spur GDP growth in any country, including Pakistan.

Pakistan Savings Rate. Source: Global Economy

IMF Bailout:

Pakistan's forex reserves were running dangerously low forcing the country to seek a $6 billion IMF bailout in 2018 to avoid default.  The total reserves now exceed $22 billion.

Pakistan Forex Reserves 2017-2022. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Pakistan Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP. Source: US Fed

Pakistan External Debt as Percentage of GDP. Source: US Fed

Reko Diq Mining Deal Revival: 

Prime Minister Imran Khan's government recently resolved an $11 billion in damages that the country faced for improperly canceling a huge copper-gold mining deal in Balochistan.  

Reko Diq is the world's 4th largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry deposit with over 14 million tons of copper and 21 million ounces of gold. The project was abandoned in 2011 after a Pakistan Supreme Court bench headed by former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry canceled the mining license granted to Tethyan Copper Company (TCC), a joint venture between Canada's Barrick Gold and Antofagasta Minerals of Chile. TCC challenged the cancellation in the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Dispute (ICSID). On July 12, 2019, the ICSID Tribunal awarded TCC $5.894 billion plus interest of  $700,000 per day in damages against Pakistan. As of 1 March 2022, the award stood at $6.5 billion. The new agreement between Barrick Gold Corporation  and the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan does away with this award. It also increases the share of the project owned by Pakistan from 25% to 50%, brings in $10 billion investment, the largest single investment in the country, and creates 8,000 jobs. Reko Diq is part of the Tethyan metallogenic belt (TMB) that extends from the Balkans in Europe to Pakistan including Serbo-Macedonian, Anatolian, Takab, Kerman and Chagai metallogenic belts. It is believed to be rich in copper and gold deposits.

Manufacturing and Construction Boom: 

Large scale manufacturing grew by 8.2% in February 2022,  after posting 7.6% growth during July-Jan FY22.  

QIM Index 2019-22. Source: APP

Pakistan Large Scale Manufacturing Index. Source: Mettis Global

The LSMI Quantum Index Number (QIM) hit an all-time high of 136.2 points in January, 2022. It averaged 120 points during July-January (2021-22), up from 111.5 points during July-January (2020-21), showing growth of 7.6%, according to latest PBS data.

Cement shipments in Pakistan. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufactu...

Pakistan cement production has increased by double digits to respond to demand for housing and infrastructure construction on Prime Minister Imran Khan's watch. 

Technology Boom:

The year 2021 was a banner year for technology startups in Pakistan.  There was a 437% jump in investments in the startups, raising a total of $352 million across 72 deals in 2021, according to Aljazeera. 

Pakistan Startup Investments. Source: Aljazeera

Pakistan technology exports have soared 30% to $1.7 billion in the first 8 months of the current fiscal year, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. 

Expansion of Social Safety Net:

Pakistan's PTI government has built South Asia’s first digital National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER) as a part of its ambitious effort to build a basic social safety net. The Ehsaas (also known as BISP- Benazir Income Support)) program's socio-economic registry includes household information by  geography, age, income, education, health, disability, employment, energy consumption, land and livestock holdings etc. Ehsaas Programs include both Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCT) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT). Unconditional Cash Transfers are made only to people living in extreme poverty or distress. Conditional Cash Transfers like Waseela-e-Taleem and Nashonuma  are given for education and nutrition respectively.  In addition, there are feeding centers (langars) for the hungry and shelters (panahgahs) for the homeless. 

OIC Foreign Ministers in Islamabad:

Recent conference of Islamic countries foreign ministers hosted by Pakistan in Islamabad was attended by 56 nations. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi attended as a special guest. Here's an excerpt of the Islamabad Declaration issued at the conclusion of the two-day conference:

“We declare that the final settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions is indispensable for durable peace in South Asia. We reiterate our call on India to: a) reverse its unilateral and illegal measures instituted since 5th August 2019; b) cease its oppression and human rights violations against the Kashmiris in IIOJK; c) halt and reverse attempts to alter the demographic structure and to redraw electoral constituencies in IIOJK; and d) take concrete and meaningful steps for full implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir,”

Response to Indian hostility:

Prime Minister Imran Khan's government won praise for its handling of India's aggression with unprovoked air strikes in Balakot in February 2019. Pakistan responded with "Operation Swift Retort", shot down two Indian fighter jets and captured an Indian Air Force pilot. But Khan's government avoided further escalation of the incident. Similarly, Pakistan responded calmly to the "accidental firing" of Indian Brahmos cruise missile into Pakistan that could have easily escalated into a full-scale war between two nuclear-armed neighbors. 

No-Confidence Vote:

Pakistan's opposition parties have recently come together to try to topple Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. These opposition parties have little in common other than their hunger for power. If they succeed, the country will plunge into yet another period of instability and uncertainty that will reverse progress made in the last few years to stabilize the country's economy. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Banner Year For Pakistani Tech Startups

Pakistan to Be World's 7th Largest Consumer Market By 2030

Sehat Card: Universal Healthcare in Pakistan

Textile Boom in Pakistan

Construction and Manufacturing Driving Pakistan's Recovery

Demographic Dividend and Record Remittances

Mobile Phone Manufacturing in Pakistan

Covid Crisis in India

Pakistan's COVID Handling

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network

[Riaz Haq]

#China Agrees to rollover a whopping $4.2 billion in #Pakistan #debt. The request for rollover was reportedly made by Prime Minister #ImranKhanPTI during his meeting with #Chinese President #XiJinping last month at #WinterOlympics. #CPEC #economy #PTI https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-agree...

China on Wednesday acceded to Pakistan's request to rollover a whopping $4.2 billion debt repayment to provide a major relief for its all-weather ally, which is reeling under major economic crisis.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in his meeting with Pakistan counterpart Shah Mehmood Qureshi on the sidelines of the 3rd meeting of the 'Foreign Ministers of Neighbouring Countries of Afghanistan' in China's eastern Anhui province has conveyed Beijing's decision to rollover the debt.

In a video message, Qureshi said Wang has conveyed China's decision to rollover Pakistan $4.2 billion to enable Islamabad to tide over the current economic crisis.
"I am immensely happy to share that the Chinese FM has given a nod of approval on the rollover of commercial loan as well," Qureshi was quoted as saying by Pakistan daily Dawn.

The USD 4.2 billion debt, which was maturing this week, has been rolled over providing major financial relief to Pakistan, the daily reported.

"The procedural formalities are being completed by relevant authorities. An announcement will be made as soon as they're sorted," Qureshi said.
The request for rollover was reportedly made by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping here last month to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Pakistan continues to undergo a huge economic crisis despite heavy investment by China in the $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In addition to Pakistan, Sri Lanka, a major recipient of Chinese loans and investments, too has asked China to reschedule its debt as it is going into a crippling financial crisis.

China is considering a fresh request from Sri Lanka for a loan of USD one billion and a credit line of USD 1.5 billion, Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka Qi Zhenhong told the media in Colombo last week. He, however, was silent about Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa's request for rescheduling of debt repayments.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s economy created 5.5 million jobs during the past three years –on an average 1.84 million jobs a year, which is far higher than yearly average of creation of new jobs during the 2008-18 decade, reveals findings of Labour Force Survey (LFS) published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2350416/employment-boom-in-last-3-years


In terms of sector, the share of agriculture sector in total employment went down from 38.5% from three years ago to 37.4%. But the share of the industrial sector increased from 23.7% to 25.4%. The services sector share in employment also decreased from nearly 38% to 37.2%.

In absolute terms, during the past three years about 2.5 million jobs were created in the industrial sector compared with 2.1 million created during the five-year PML-N tenure. Another 1.4 million jobs were created in the agriculture sector and 1.7 million in the services sector. During the PML-N tenure around 4.3 million jobs had been created in the services sector.

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the Sindh province remained an exception where unemployment rate significantly went down to just 3.9% in three years as the unemployment rate increased in all other three provinces –the highest one recorded at 8.8% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) during the last fiscal year, according to Labour Force Survey 2020-21.

The national unemployment rate stood at 6.3% at the end of the last fiscal year, which is better than the preceding year but higher than 5.8% recorded at the end of the PML-N tenure, according to the survey conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The Planning Ministry and the PBS have not yet officially released the survey.

The survey findings were endorsed on Wednesday by a technical committee, comprising official and independent experts, according to the officials of the Ministry of Planning and Development. The PBS covered 6,808 enumeration blocks and 99,904 households for the survey purposes.

The findings showed that the number of employed people increased to 67.3 million by June 2021 –up from 61.7 million at the end of the PML-N tenure.

However, the official unemployment rate that in June 2018 was 5.8% went up to 6.3% at the end of the third year of the PTI rule. The unemployment rate was the lowest in Sindh at 3.9% that is ruled by the Pakistan Peoples Party but it was highest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 8.8%, followed by 6.8% in Punjab –the two provinces governed by the ruling party.


A key reason for an overall low unemployment rate of 6.3% was inclusion of contributing family workers in the definition of the employed people whose share in total employment was above one-fifth. The share of employers remained unchanged at 1.4% in three years. The employees also went down from 42.4% to 42% in three years but own-account workers' share went up to 35.5%, according to the survey.

During 2018-23, on an average 1.84 million jobs a year were created –far better than the yearly average recorded during the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz and the PPP governments, according to the survey’s findings.

During the five year of the PPP (2008-13), about 6.9 million jobs had been created with a yearly average of 1.4 million. Compared to this, during the PML-N 2013-18’s tenure, about 5.7 million jobs had been created with an average of 1.14 million a year.

The average economic growth rate during the PML-N five years rule was significantly higher than the average growth rate during the PTI tenure. For the first time in the past 70 years, the country had also witnessed 1% contraction in the Gross Domestic Product during the fiscal year 2019-20 when the world was struck by the global pandemic.

The survey findings revealed that the sectoral contributions in job creation were uneven and the majority of the new jobs had been created in the industrial sector.

Prime Minister Imran Khan had promised to create 10 million jobs during his government tenure and the creation of 5.5 million jobs suggested that the economy might generate a total 9 million jobs by 2023 at the current rate.

[Riaz Haq]

University of #Chicago International Relations Professor John Mearsheimer: “No country has a richer history of political interference in other countries than the #US” | Why #America foreign policies badly failed. #ImranKhan #Pakistan https://youtu.be/LW9S9XVjjLM via @YouTube

[Riaz Haq]

From Arif Habib Securities:


Pakistan Economy
Rebased and revised GDPg at 5.57% for FY21 20-Jan-2022

The National Accounts Committee (NAC), in its 104th meeting, reviewed the change of base of National Accounts from 2005-06 to 2015-16. With this revision, the final estimates of GDP growth of FY21 came out to be 5.57% (provisional: 5.37%). This number—especially the quantum of rate of growth during trying times—is striking, part of an impressive growth performance that gov’t projects to continue in the medium term. A few key areas mentioned in the NAC’s press release are as follows:
 The committee reviewed and approved the rebased series from 2015-16 to 2020-21 on the prices of 2015-16.
 Revised GDP growth rates at Constant Prices on new base of 2015-16 stand at 5.57% (old base: 5.37%)
 Revised sectoral growth rates are:
 Agriculture: 3.48% (provisional est.: 2.77%)  Industrial: 7.79% (provisional est.: 3.57%)  Services: 5.70% (provisional est.: 4.43%)
 The GDP at market prices increased to PKR 55.5trn in FY21 while Gross National Income increased to PKR 59.3trn with the rebasing of numbers.
 During FY21, the Per Capita Income increased to PKR 266,614 and in USD 1,666.
 In dollar terms, the size of the economy reached to USD 346.76bn.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan PM #ImranKhan faces a no-confidence Vote. At stake in Sunday’s vote is thus the #geopolitical direction of one of world’s nine #nuclear powers, at a time when war in #Ukraine has sent global tensions soaring and brought alliances under scrutiny. https://ti.me/3K1w4yr

Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, is on the verge of being ousted in a vote of no confidence after more than three years in power.

Accusing the 69-year-old former cricket star of economic mismanagement and rights abuses, the opposition has spent weeks persuading Khan’s coalition partners to defect and has seemingly done enough ahead of the vote on Apr. 3. In a raucous session of the National Assembly on Thursday, lawmakers appeared to have formed a bloc of 172—sufficient to topple the government—and confidently took group photographs of what they regarded as a watershed moment.

While the problem of corruption in Pakistani society is well documented, much of the political hostility toward Khan stems from his use of the issue to quash rivals, detaining them on trumped up charges. Marriyum Aurangzeb, information secretary for the opposition Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), accuses Khan of using a “false corruption narrative” to consolidate his grip on power.

When Khan took office, “Everybody in our party was thrown in jail, every day we used to wait for the news of who was next,” Aurangzeb says. “He went after the media, he went after business people, he went after the opposition, every party, and he thought that by putting everyone in jail he would be successful.”

Dr. Nida Kirmani, associate professor of sociology at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, confirms that while Khan’s anti-graft posturing taps into “legitimate public frustration,” its scope is limited because it is used to attack political opponents. “This narrative has been a trope of populist leaders to gain support, but their analysis and diagnosis is superficial,” she tells TIME.

Read More: What Pakistan Gains from the Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

The reverberations of Khan’s likely removal will be felt much further afield than Islamabad, however. A strident critic of the West, the prime minister has made anti-Americanism a part of his political persona, infamously accusing the U.S., in 2020, of “martyring” Osama bin Laden. After the fall of Kabul in August last year, he endorsed the Taliban takeover and remarked that the people of Afghanistan, in defeating the U.S., had “broken the shackles of slavery.”

More recently, Khan arrived in Moscow for an official visit on the day that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, drawing attention to the Kremlin’s evolving relationship with Islamabad, which has adopted a neutral position in the conflict.

Pakistan’s opposition, on the other hand, has deep misgivings about Khan’s collision course with Washington and can be expected to reset the relationship if Khan is ousted. “The need of the hour is to repair our relations with America diplomatically,” says Sartaj Aziz, who was adviser to the prime minister on foreign affairs from 2013 to 2017.

At stake in Sunday’s vote is thus the geopolitical direction of one of the world’s nine nuclear powers, at a time when war in Ukraine has sent global tensions soaring and brought alliances under scrutiny. Ahsan Iqbal, who served as interior minister before Khan took office, says the incumbent has badly miscalculated over the conflict in Europe.

“He should have at least said that we do not support this invasion, we want international forums to play their role, and Russia should show restraint and negotiate a settlement,” Iqbal tells TIME. “But what this government chose [was] not to take any position and I think that was a big blunder.”

[Riaz Haq]

In Q&A, #US Assistant Secretary of State for #SouthAsia Donald Lu neither confirmed nor denied having a threatening conversation with #Pakistan's Ambassador Asad Majeed Khan. When pressed, Lu said: "That’s all I have for you on that question". #ImranKhan https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/22-will-show-india-us-tie...

Q: Let me move to the rest of the region and start with Pakistan. Imran Khan seems to suggest that you had a conversation with the Pakistani ambassador in the US and told him that if Imran Khan survives the no-confidence motion, Pakistan is in trouble and the US won’t forgive Pakistan. Any response?

A: We are following developments in Pakistan and we respect and support Pakistan’s constitutional process and the rule of law.

Q: Did you have such a conversation?

A: That’s all I have for you on that question.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s exports in March surged to $2.773 billion at a growth rate of 17.3 percent compared to $2.365 billion observed in the corresponding period last year.

https://propakistani.pk/2022/04/01/pakistans-exports-register-17-3-...


Conversely, provisional data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) indicates that on a month-on-month basis, exports have dipped by 2 percent to $2.77 billion in March 2022, compared to $2.82 billion in the previous month.

The Adviser to the Prime Minister on Commerce and Investment, Abdul Razak Dawood tweeted that exports during July-March fiscal year 2021-2022 soared by 25 percent to $23.332 billion as compared to $18.688 billion in the corresponding period last year, indicating an increase of $4.644 billion.

Dawood congratulated the exporters for maintaining the momentum of exports, adding that “our exports are in line with our targets & we expect to achieve our yearly target”.

As per SBP figures, Pakistan’s current account deficit was $545 million in February, which was less than the $2.5 billion record loss in January but over 16 times larger than the same month last year.

The trade deficit widened by 82.2 percent during the first eight months (July-February) of the current fiscal year 2021-22 and reached $31.959 billion compared to $17.535 billion during the same period of 2020-21.

[Riaz Haq]

Meher Bokhari
@meherbokhari
Unemployed population rate across South Asia for the 2020-2022 timeline:

: 8.0%
: 6.3%
: 5.4%
: 5.0%
: 5.9%
: 4.7%
: 4.3%

Source: WorldBank
Data: 2020-2022

https://twitter.com/meherbokhari/status/1510358148325859328?s=20&am...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?locations=IN-PK

[Riaz Haq]

Donald Lu, the US Asst Sec of State for South Asia, has been in the news lately for threatening "regime change" in Pakistan. He appears to buy Modi's narrative about Kashmir being about "cross-border terrorism".


Cross-border terrorism down, Kashmir moving normalcy, Modi has a lot of support and authority in India: US official Donald Lu at Senate hearing | South Asia Monitor


https://www.southasiamonitor.org/south-asia-abroad/cross-border-ter...


Democratic Party Senator Chris Murphy, who chaired the hearing, wondered if Modi's electoral performance was due to “organic popularity of the ruling party or because of tactics that would not be the norm in the US". Murphy heads the Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Counterterrorism that held the hearing on US relations with India.

Lu also said that cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan has gone down over the past two years. He said that in meetings with Pakistani Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa Pakistan took “credit for closing off that border for militant groups”.

They have “sealed the border in a way we haven't seen before” and that was partly because of the actions by Financial Action Task Force (FATF) which can impose punitive financial sanctions for supporting terrorism.

Asked by Murphy about Kashmir, Lu said, “We do see the Indian government taking some steps to restore normalcy. Prime Minister had outreach to a range of Kashmiri Indian politicians in June. We've seen visits by cabinet ministers to Kashmir”.

“We saw the rest restoration of 4G connections for cell phones which is the way most people would get their information. In the Kashmir valley,” he added.

At the same time, he said that assembly elections have not been held there and some prominent journalists in the Kashmir Valley have been detained.

[Riaz Haq]

https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/53170/did-the-us-assis...

According to Pakistani PM Imran Khan, on 7th March 2022, Pakistani diplomats were summoned to the foreign office of "a Western country" and were told that

they were not satisfied with Pakistan's Russia policy.
PM Imran Khan visited Russia on his own accord which is not acceptable to them.
a no-confidence move is coming against the PM.
if the PM IK survives the no-confidence move, Pakistan will face a grim future.
if the PM IK is gone, all of Pakistan's wrong moves would be forgiven.
He also said that these threats are present in the black and white form of an official communique.

On 31st March 2022, the official "threat" document was presented in front of the national security council of Pakistan and decided to issue a demarche against the US role. On the same day, the Pakistani PM received a report from the Pakistani intelligence agency that dozens of Pakistani members of parliaments, journalists, and media house owners had been meeting various US officials from the US embassy in Pakistan from October 2021. On 2nd April 2022, a senior US diplomat in Pakistan was summoned by the Foreign Office of Pakistan and registered a protest. On 3rd March 2022, PM IK revealed that it was Donald Lu who threatened Pakistani officials on the record.

The USA publicly denied any role in the ouster of PM Imran Khan. However, Donald Lu was questioned by a journalist from the Hindustan Times if Imran Khan's allegations of conveying threatening messages to the Pak ambassador about a no-confidence motion to avoid serious consequences for Pakistan, Donald Lu passed on without a denial. This is a video clip posted on Twitter, where Donald Lu was seen grilled by senator Van Hollen, and it showed that, indeed, he had been in contact with Pakistani officials regarding not voting against Russia.

By the way, the USA has a proven track record of orchestrating the de-seating of various heads of states/governments e.g. Mohammad Mosaddegh of Iran, Salvador Ajende of Chile, and so on. The USA also has a proven history of interfering with Pakistan's foreign policies and domestic politics.

My question is, Did the US Assistant secretary of state Donald Lu threaten Pakistan?

1
The events are probably too recent for anyone to reach an answer strong enough proofs for S.SE. One possible subquestion is whether any version of the alledged "official communique" including the supposed "threats" has been divulgated. –
Evargalo
2 days ago
2
Pakistan (or rather PM Khan) says they have evidence but doesn't want to show it publicly. The US claims that never happened. I'm not sure how you expect users here to solve this conundrum. I'm pretty sure this site is not run by the CIA as you implied elsewhere, so it's highly doubtful anyone here will answer with classified information. And even if they do do that, how would be able to tell it apart from disinformation? –
Fizz
2 days ago
@Evargalo, whether any version of the alleged "official communique" including the supposed "threats" has been divulgated. --- The problem, in this case, is, any diplomatic dossier is protected by Pakistan's national secrecy act. Divulging such documents will automatically push the PM to a lifelong ban in Pakistani politics. –
user366312
2 days ago
1
The top-voted answer on the Q about Arafat says that we don't know. But at least the answers there have some material (medical reports) that could be discussed in factual terms. Insofar I'm failing to see how that can be done for your Q. It seems to be just based on claims and rebuttals whether something was written. –
Fizz
2 days ago