Pakistan Population Boom; Rohingya Ethnic Cleansing

[Riaz Haq]

Is Pakistan's growing population a "disaster in the making"? Is it a bigger disaster than the population bust in Europe and East Asia with their aging societies and shrinking labor force? Where will the investment in education, health and job creation come from in Pakistan to meet the growing population? Is there a demographic dividend with Pakistan's labor force growing faster than the overall population? Will growth in labor force help increase domestic savings rate in Pakistan? What is the relationship between GDP growth and job creation? What is Pakistan's employment elasticity relative to other nations in South Asia?

Source: World Bank Report "More and Better Jobs in South Asia"

Who are the Rohingya? Why are they being attacked, raped, killed and driven out of their homes in Rakhine state? Why is the Myanmar government and its allied Buddhist militias, including monks, burning Rohingya villages? Is it a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing" as described by the UN Human Rights chief? Why is Nobel Peace laureate Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi defending these actions instead of using her authority, at least her moral authority, to end this nightmare for the Rohingya? What is the world doing about t? What can and should Pakistan and other Muslim nations do to help their fellow Muslim Rohingya?

Source: Aljazeera

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these and other questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/ucopTLFQdKY



Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Can Pakistan Economy Add 2 Million Jobs a Year?

Where's the Real Population "Disaster in the Making"? Pakistan or W...

Pakistan's Population Growth: Blessing or Curse?

Pakistan's Expected Demographic Dividend

World Bank Report on Job Growth in Pakistan

Underinvestment Hurting Pakistan's GDP Growth

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Musharraf Accelerated Growth of Pakistan's Financial and Human Capital

Working Women Seeding a Silent Revolution in Pakistan

Median Income and Wealth in India and Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

TRADE AND
DEVELOPMENT
REPORT 2017
BEYOND AUSTERITY:
TOWARDS A GLOBAL NEW DEAL


http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdr2017_en.pdf

Growth in a number of
countries in South Asia, including Bangladesh and
Pakistan, appears to have benefited in recent years
from new opportunitieslinked to the “One Belt, One
Road” initiative in China.
The gradual slowdown of China is expected to continue
asit moves ahead with rebalancing its economy,
towards domestic markets. However, the explosion of
domestic debtsince the crisisis proving a major challenge
to sustained growth. According to comparable
data from the Bank for International Settlements, the
debt-to-GDP ratio of China stands at 249 per cent
as compared with 248 per cent in the United States
and 279 per cent in the euro zone. Despite this debt
build-up, which calls for deleveraging, every time
there are signs of a slowdown the only instrument
in the hands of the Chinese Government seems to
be to expand credit. Fears of a hard landing resulted
in a ¥6.2 trillion increase in debt in the first three
months of 2017.9
The Indian banking sector, too, which since 2003
has expanded credit to the retail sector (involving
personal loans of various kinds, especially those for
housing investments and car purchases) and to the
corporate sector (including for infrastructure projects),
is now burdened with large volumes ofstressed
and non-performing assets. Data for all banks(public
and private), relating to December 2016, point to a
59.3 per cent increase over the previous 12 months,
taking it to 9.3 per cent of their advances, compared
with a non-performing assets (NPAs) to advances
ratio of 3.5 per cent at the end of 2012.10
Rising NPAs are making banks much more cautious
in their lending practices with signs of a reduction in
the pace of credit creation. Since debt-financed private
investment and consumption was an important
driver of growth in India, it is more than likely that the
easing of the credit boom would slow GDP growth as
well. Thus, the dependence on debt makes the boom
in China and India difficult to sustain and raises the
possibility that when the downturn occurs in these
countries, deleveraging will accelerate the fall and
make recovery difficult. Expecting these countriesto
continue to serve asthe growth polesthat would fuel
a global recovery is clearly unwarranted.

[Riaz Haq]

China signs MoUs worth $375m for investment in readymade garments sector in Pakistan

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1510133/china-signs-mous-worth-375m-in...

Chinese companies from different cities and provinces have expressed their interest in relocating their textile, garment and accessory production units to Punjab, with an expected investment of at least $25 million estimated for each unit.

This was stated by Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PRGMEA) Central Chairman Ijaz Khokhar at the three-day 18th International Textile Asia Exhibition. Besides marking the participation of over 500 foreign delegates, the exhibition also witnessed signing of MoUs worth $375 million for investment in Pakistan through joint ventures with local companies

Speaking on the occasion, Khokhar said that foreign companies are also committed to transfer their technologies, besides buying back Pakistani products after value-addition here, which would enhance export and lower Pakistan’s trade deficit with China.

Quoting the Chinese, he said, “We will make joint ventures with local companies from Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot and Faisalabad, and provide training to engineers from these cities and buy back products to export to China.”

The event was jointly organised by PRGMEA and Ecommerce Gateway Pakistan, who also signed an agreement to continue to jointly conduct this mega textile event in the future on an annual basis.

The PRGMEA chairman announced this on the last day of the exhibition. In his concluding remarks, he said that around 52,000 trade visitors registered their presence in the textile fair in three days.

Also present on the occasion, PRGMEA Vice Chairman Jawwad Chaudhry said that machinery and equipment displayed at the exhibition were of immense use to manufacturers producing value-added products for increasing volume of exports.

He hoped that local businessmen would benefit from this technology by adding value to their products.

He said that the Textile Asia Expo also featured businessmen to businessmen (B2B) meetings, a lot of important industry-related presentations and seminars on textile sector.

Chaudhry observed that the entire chain of the local textile sector was invited to attend the country’s largest textile show. The exhibiting countries included Austria, China, Czech Republic, France, Germany, India, Italy, Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, UK and USA among others.

Ecommerce Gateway Pakistan CEO Dr Khurshid Nizam said that such textile machinery fairs in Pakistan would increase productivity, resulting into better competitiveness.

Chinese textile units interested in relocating to Pakistan

The exhibition is aimed at focusing the Punjab potential of textile and garment machinery, accessories, raw material supplies, chemicals and allied services under one roof, as around 80% of textile industry is located in this province, Nizam added.

The exhibition also provided an effective platform for joint ventures and collaborations to the textile sector’s SMEs, he remarked.

The CEO observed that the three-day mega fair provided the local small textile industry a good opportunity where more than 315 international brands from around 27 countries displayed their products in more than 515 stalls.

[Riaz Haq]

#India's #Modi has a big problem in creating jobs. #Inequality is rising. #BJP #economy #unemployment 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/modi-s-jobs-prob... 


Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a jobs problem.

He swept to power three years ago promising India’s poor and middle classes he’d restore their "dignity" after years of swelling inequality, with job creation central to his pitch. But now, the jobs market has been slugged by last November’s shock cash ban and July’s imposition of a goods and services tax.

And things look like they’re about to get worse: India is set to see a further 30 percent-to-40 percent reduction of jobs in the manufacturing sector compared with last year, according to TeamLease Services Ltd., one of the country’s biggest recruitment firms. While other surveys aren’t quite so bleak, they also suggest Modi is a long way from creating the 10 million jobs a year needed to keep up with his young and rapidly expanding workforce.

The opposition -- in disarray since losing to Modi -- is dialing up its criticism as it eyes elections due in 2019.

"If India cannot give the millions of people entering the job market employment, anger will increase, and it has the potential to derail what has been built so far," Rahul Gandhi, heir-apparent to the main opposition Indian National Congress party, said in a speech at the University of California, Berkeley, on Sept. 11. "That will be catastrophic for India and the world beyond it."

Gandhi is the son and grandson of previous prime ministers, and could well be Modi’s direct opponent at the next vote.

Modi’s backers are alarmed too. A key ally and member of Modi’s party, Subramanian Swamy, told a TV channel over the weekend that he has conveyed concerns to Modi that the economy could be heading for a "major depression."

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh -- the ideological parent of Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party that works like a volunteer wing to ensure voter turnout during elections -- has alerted the BJP of signs of a shift in the public mood over the government’s performance, though Modi still remains personally popular, according to a report in the Telegraph newspaper last week that cited unnamed RSS sources.

Read: India’s Shock Therapy Has Some Serious Side Effects

Munira Loliwala, a general manager at TeamLease, said the slowdown accelerated sharply with demonetization. Indian manufacturers, who previously preferred to cut white-collar jobs rather than factory-floor workers, are now slashing all over, she said.

"We see no option, things are not looking to improve much," Loliwala said.


Loliwala was referring to Modi’s move in November to scrap 86 percent of currency in circulation, which contributed to growth in gross domestic product slumping to the lowest since 2014 last quarter. Modi then pushed through a nationwide goods and services tax on July 1, which is expected to benefit India in the long-run but for now is roiling supply chains.

Manufacturing accounts for some 18 percent of GDP and directly employs 12 percent of the population, government data show. Loliwala said that many of those who lose their jobs stay unemployed because they lack the communication skills required for the services sector, which accounts for 62 percent of GDP.

[Riaz Haq]

Sen Bernie Sanders: The War on #Terror ‘Has Been a Disaster for the #American People’ #Terrorism http://thebea.st/2fk4FyL?source=twitter&via=desktop … via @thedailybeast

Sanders’ biggest foreign policy speech yet will defend the Iran Deal, call out Putin, and blast the struggle against global jihadism as giving terrorists ‘exactly what they want.’

Fresh from pulling the Democratic Party leftward on health care, Bernie Sanders wants to do the same on geopolitics. The independent socialist senator will use a Thursday speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri—where Winston Churchill gave his famous “Iron Curtain” address—to catalyze an intra-progressive debate on foreign-policy principles.
It’s a speech likely to make waves. Like U.K. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn before him, Sanders will call the war on terrorism a “disaster,” The Daily Beast has learned.
“The Global War on Terror has been a disaster for the American people and for American leadership,” Sanders will say Thursday in perhaps his biggest foreign-policy speech to date, according to an excerpt seen by The Daily Beast.

[Riaz Haq]

Here are the key statistics reported by Credit Suisse:

Total Household Wealth Mid-2016 :

India $3,099 billion Pakistan $524 billion

Wealth per adult:

India Year End 2000 Average $2,036 Median $498.00

Pakistan Year End 2000 Average $2,399 Median $1,025

India Mid-2016 Average $3,835 Median $608

Pakistan Mid-2016 Average $4,595 Median $1,788

Average wealth per adult in Pakistan is $760 more than in India or about 20% higher.

Median wealth per adult in Pakistan is $1,180 more than in India or about 120% higher

http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/11/cs-wealth-report-2016-average-pakist...

[Riaz Haq]

#COVID Baby Bust in #America: 500,000 fewer babies expected in 2021 in #US. Businesses that cater to infants are in for a rough couple of years. #Population https://marker.medium.com/the-covid-19-baby-bust-by-the-numbers-964...

300,000 to 500,000: That’s how many fewer babies the think tank Brookings Institution projects will be born in the United States next year. Birth rates in the United States were already steadily declining before the pandemic, but the latest projection is a steep drop from the 3.7 million babies born in 2019, which was 1% lower than in 2018.

The authors of the Brookings Institution report write that stories about birth spikes nine months after blizzards or major blackouts, when couples are cooped up together, tend not to hold up to statistical examination. And in this case, the increased uncertainty caused by the pandemic and its economic fallout is leading prospective parents to put off having kids until conditions are more stable. But the authors expect “that many of these births will not just be delayed — but will never happen.”

It’s not just the United States, either. China’s birth rates are at their lowest levels on record and are expected to drop by 8% this year.

That’s bad news for businesses that cater to infants and new mothers, many of which had already been diversifying their products to hedge against declining birth rates. The Wall Street Journal reports that infant formula maker Reckitt is expanding into adult nutrition, while owners of diaper brands Pampers and Huggies recently launched higher-priced products to make up for a decline in sales volume.

[Riaz Haq]

Digital census process continues smoothly: PBS

https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2023/03/16/digital-census-process-...


ISLAMABAD: The process of the 7th Population and Housing Census, being conducting digitally for the first time in the country’s history, has been going on smoothly all across the country, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported here on Thursday.

“The overall progress and speed of the census process is very encouraging and satisfactory,” PBS said in a press statement issued here.

The process includes an option for self-enumeration, which was made available from February 20, 2023, till March 10, 2023, and field operations of house listing and enumeration commenced from March 01, 2023, that will continue till April 4, 2023.

Conducting a census digitally ensures transparency, data-driven procedures, real-time monitoring of progress through geo-tagging using GIS systems, and wider acceptability of census results, said PBS press statement.

It said structures were listed from March 1st to March 10, 2023, during which all the residential and economic units were geotagged along with the classification of economic activities as per international standards.

It said, the self-enumeration portal was very well received by people who have enumerated themselves using the portal launched and this method was optional.

Currently, the final phase of the census i.e. enumeration is ongoing starting from March 12, 2023, and would continue till April 4, 2023. In this phase, the data about household members and their demographic characteristics, various Socio-Economic Indicators, as well as Housing characteristics, are being collected.

PBS technical team is analyzing and assessing the data and trends on a day-to-day basis to ensure the quality of the data and progress in identified 291 blocks all over Pakistan. Physical verification and digital monitoring are being used for quality assurance.

PBS has established 495 Census Support Centers (CSC) at the Census District level and 495 Census Support Centers (CSC) at the tehsil level where over 1,095 IT experts of NADRA and PBS team are available 24/7 for technical assistance and facilitation of field staff.

The control room has been established at the CSC level which facilitates census field staff during field operation and for this purpose, NADRA technical teams are available to redress all IT-related issues.

A call center is operating 24/7 for facilitation, assistance and suggestions through the toll-free number 0800-57574.

It said, certain quarters were spreading false and misinformation, adding information shared on the PBS website and official social media should be believed and considered.