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Pakistan Garment Industry Becoming More Cost Competitive With Bangladesh's?
Low wages and trade preferential deals with Western nations have helped Bangladesh, currently designated "Least Developed Country" (LDC), build a $30 billion ready-made garments (RMG) industry that accounts for 80% of country's exports. Bangladesh is the world's second largest RMG exporter after China. With its designation as LDC (Least Developed Country), garments made in Bangladesh get preferential duty-free access to Europe and America. Rising monthly wages of Bangladesh garment worker in terms of US dollars are now catching up with the minimum wage in Pakistan, especially after recent Pakistani rupee devaluation. Minimum monthly wage in Pakistan has declined from $136 last year to $107 now while Bangladesh has seen it increase from $64 last year to $95 today. Western garment buyers, known for their relentless pursuit of the lowest labor costs, will likely diversify their sources by directing new investments to Pakistan and other nations. Competing on low cost alone may prove to be a poor long term exports strategy for both countries. Greater value addition with diverse products and services will be necessary to remain competitive as wages rise in both countries.
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| Minimum Monthly Wages in US$ Market Exchange Rate |
Wage Hike in Bangladesh:
The government in Dhaka announced in September that the minimum wage for garment workers would increase by up to 51% this year to 8,000 taka ($95) a month, up from $64 a year ago, according to Renaissance Capital. But garment workers union leaders say that increase will benefit only a small percentage of workers in the sector, which employs 4 million in the country of 165 million people, according to Reuters. Bangladesh government promised this week it would consider demands for an increase in the minimum wage, after clashes between police and protesters killed one worker and wounded dozens.
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| Monthly Minimum Wages in US$. Source: Renaissance Capital |
Pakistan Wage Decline:
Pakistani currency has seen about 25% decline in value against the US dollar since January 2018. As a result of this devaluation, the minimum monthly wage in Pakistan has dropped from $136 last year to $107 now while Bangladesh has seen it increase from $64 last year to $95 today. Renaissance Capital projects a further 10% depreciation in Pakistani rupee this year.
Race to the Bottom?
Competing on cost alone is like engaging in the race to the bottom. Neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh can count on being lowest cost producers in the long run. What must they do to grow their exports in the future? The only viable option for both is to diversify their products and services and add greater value to justify higher prices.
Pakistan's Export Performance:
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| Top 10 Textile Exporters. Source: WTO |
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| Top 10 Garment Exporters. Source: WTO |
Pakistan's Role:
Pakistani currency has seen about 25% decline in value against the US dollar since January 2018. As a result of this devaluation, the minimum monthly wage in Pakistan has dropped from $136 last year to $107 now while in Bangladesh has seen it increased from $64 last year to $95 today. Renaissance Capital projects a further 10% depreciation this year. While this can help Pakistan's RMG exports in the short term, it is not good long term strategy. Competing on cost alone is a race to the bottom. Pakistan's manufactured exports per capita have declined in the last decade. Pakistan's exports have declined from about 15% of GDP to about 8% since 2003. The nation's trade deficits are growing at an alarming rate as the imports continue to far outstrip exports. This situation is not sustainable. Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing has offered a helping hand to increase Chinese investment and trade in Pakistan. Pakistan's new government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan should take the Chinese Ambassador's plan seriously. Finance Minister Asad Umar needs to form a high-powered team of top bureaucrats and leading businessmen on a comprehensive plan to attract investments in export-oriented industries and diversify and grow high-value exports to China and other countries.
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Comment by Riaz Haq on January 25, 2019 at 9:00am
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#CPEC to play larger role in driving #Pakistan's #economy.Some #MiddleEast countries have showed an interest in investing in projects under the CPEC framework. #China #SaudiArabia #UAE #Qatar - Global Times http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1136891.shtml#.XEs_8QZWl3U.twitter
China and Pakistan have decided to widen the scope of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Economic Times reported, adding that the two countries have signed new agreements to launch industrial, agricultural and socio-economic projects under this initiative.
Why take this step at this very sensitive moment? In recent months, the project has been blamed for causing a debt trap and economic woes for Pakistan.
There is speculation that Pakistan's attitude toward the CPEC has caused dissatisfaction in China and that Beijing may be hesitant about continuing to offer loans for the project.
New projects will help reduce public misunderstanding of the CPEC. It's a flagship project of the China-proposed Belt and Road initiative. Although the project does face some difficulties, it is unlikely that China will change its supportive attitude on the CPEC.
China's efforts to push forward the CPEC won't be given up halfway. The CPEC has created an opportunity to support economic growth in the South Asian country, instead of an unbearable debt burden. Debt from China makes up only a small part of Pakistan's total burden.
The latest developments involving the CPEC add to evidence that the two countries believe the project will bring tangible benefits amid the current economic woes.
Several years after its launch, the CPEC has laid a foundation for sustainable economic development through infrastructure improvement. Perhaps now is the time to launch the second stage of the project to turn its focus to areas including industry, agriculture and socioeconomic projects, and further develop the Gwadar Port.
Some Middle East countries have showed an interest in investing in projects under the CPEC framework.
It is normal and natural for China and Pakistan to call for the accelerated development of the economic corridor and widen the scope of the project to attract more investment.
The CPEC's development may appear to slow down in the past few months, sparking concern that Beijing is hesitant about further investment. But it always takes time to discuss issues and details before drawing up detailed plans to launch a new stage of a project. At its second stage, the CPEC will play a bigger role in Pakistan's economy as the project focuses more on manufacturing and agriculture.
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#Pakistan Central Bank expects slowdown in #economic growth to 4-4.5%. Corrective measures by #PTI government taken so far to fix the fundamentals have taken a toll mainly on two leading sectors – large-scale #manufacturing (LSM) and #agriculture. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1899685/2-sbp-expects-slowdown-economi...
“The 6.2% target for real GDP (gross domestic product) growth seems unachievable (in FY19),” the central bank said in its first-quarter report on the state of Pakistan’s economy for fiscal year 2018-19 issued on Tuesday.
The country hit a 13-year high economic growth of 5.8% in the previous fiscal year, but “at the cost of widening macroeconomic imbalances as manifested in the five-year high fiscal deficit and a record high current account deficit,” the central bank said earlier.
The LSM sector dropped 1.7% in the first quarter (July-September 2018) of the current fiscal year compared to 9.9% growth in the same quarter last year due to interest rate hikes, massive rupee depreciation against the US dollar and reduction in the government’s development budget.
Such measures were taken to fix the macroeconomic imbalances like the twin deficit. Simultaneously, they negatively impacted LSM and the agronomy.
“In fact, the large-scale manufacturing contracted for the first time in over seven years during Q1-FY19,” the SBP said in its first-quarter report. Furthermore, important budgetary measures such as the imposition of ban on high-value property and new car purchases by non-filers of tax returns restricted activity in these sectors. The government in the recent second mini-budget has, however, allowed the non-filers purchase of new cars up to 1,300cc.
Within the agriculture sector, preliminary estimates indicate that production of all major Kharif crops has remained lower compared to the last season.
“This decline can be attributed primarily to an alarming water availability situation, particularly in Sindh, which led to a 7.7% decline in the total area under production. Furthermore, crop yields also suffered due to subdued fertiliser offtake amidst rising prices of both urea and DAP,” the central bank said. The uptrend in international oil prices during the first quarter remained a big challenge for the economy as that resulted in an unwanted growth in the oil import bill. Pakistan meets around 70-80% of energy needs through imports.
Immediate challenges
Although the economy is responding to the stabilisation measures taken over the past few months, boosting foreign currency reserves and controlling inflation would remain the two near-term challenges to the economy, it said.
“Average inflation during Q1-FY19 increased to 5.6% – the highest quarterly growth since Q1-FY15,” it said. The SBP projected the inflation (Consumer Price Index) at 6.5-7.5% for the full fiscal year against the target of 6%.
Besides, narrowing down the continuously widening fiscal account deficit would remain a tough challenge for the economic managers. The fiscal deficit widened to Rs541.7 billion in the first quarter compared to Rs440.8 billion in the corresponding period of last year. “This was mainly because revenue collection could not keep pace with growing current expenditures.
“This increase came on the back of a steep rise in current spending (mainly debt servicing and defence), which more than offset marginal gains in the revenue collection,” the SBP said. The central bank projected the fiscal deficit at 5.5-6.5% in FY19 compared to the target of 4.9%.
Silver lining
The downturn in international oil prices has emerged as a blessing for the domestic economy. This is expected to help narrow down the current account deficit.
“The most important development has been the bearish spell in the global crude market that began in early October and ran through the rest of Q2-FY19. Oil prices have fallen by a quarter during this period and reached a year’s low level of $54 per barrel. This will lift some pressure from Pakistan’s oil import bill in at least the second quarter of the year,” the SBP said.
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Faisalabad based Interloop, world’s biggest socks maker and supplier to Adidas and Nike, raised Rs 5 billion in an IPO at Karachi stock exchange today
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/443994-interloop-ipo-raises-rs5-02...
Interloop Limited has successfully raised Rs5.025 billion through the largest private sector Initial Public Offering (IPO), placing itself among the top 50 companies listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) by market capitalisation, the company said on Thursday.
The company that supplies foot-hosiery to global sportswear giants like Nike and Adidas said, the two-day book building process was oversubscribed by 1.37 times with the price closing at Rs46.10/share.
The total demand received was Rs6,727 million against total issue size of Rs 4,905 million, oversubscribed by Rs1,822 million or 1.37 times.
Arif Habib Limited is the consultant to issue for the IPO, while Ismail Iqbal Securities has been the book runners.
The Interloop offer has surpassed the previous record for a private company, when Pakistan Stock Exchange Ltd raised Rs4.5 billion two years ago. There have been larger sales by state-controlled companies in Pakistan.
Interloop is one of the world’s largest hosiery manufacturers and has an annual turnover in excess of Rs30 billion.
The company in a statement said one of the main objectives for the IPO was to expand hosiery production by opening a new plant and simultaneously and entry into the apparel business by opening a denim plant in Lahore, for which land had already been acquired.
Interloop Ltd., which makes socks for Nike and Adidas, is planning Pakistan’s biggest ever initial public offering by a private firm.
The company plans to raise as much as 6.8 billion rupees ($51 million) to expand its sock manufacturing capacity by around 20 percent and enter the denim business, said Chairman and Co-Founder Musadaq Zulqarnain. It will offer 12.5 percent of the business in the sale, likely to take place in January, and is aiming to lift revenue by 77 percent over five years, he said.
“Our capacity is already full,” Zulqarnain said in an interview at the company’s head office in Faisalabad. Interloop can see more growth, so will “take that risk” to expand, he said.
The listing comes as Prime Minister Imran Khan tries to spark an export revival to make up ground that Pakistan has lost to low-cost manufacturing destinations like Vietnam and Bangladesh. The new government has announced plans to cut gas and electricity prices to support companies selling abroad, although the push has been criticized for relying too much on subsidies.
The Interloop offer will surpass the previous record for a private company, when Pakistan Stock Exchange Ltd. raised 4.5 billion rupees two years ago. There have been larger sales by state-controlled companies in Pakistan.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-09/sock-supplier-fo...
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#Pakistan All Set To Cross USD 15 billion Mark In #Textile #Exports. “The textile industry exports is likely to cross $15 billion mark in case it continues to grow by 10 percent on an average for the remaining period of current fiscal.
https://www.textileexcellence.com/news/pakistan-all-set-to-cross-us...
Gohar Ejaz, patron in chief of APTMA (All Pakistan Textile Manufacturers Association) stressed that the availability of energy at regionally competitive price has boosted textile exports by 8.5% in the month of January 2019 on a y-o-y comparison in the corresponding period.
“The textile industry exports is likely to cross $15 billion mark in case it continues to grow by 10 percent on an average for the remaining period of current fiscal. It would likely be a record achievement of textile exports in such a short span of time. The exports of USD 3.5 billion yarn and fabric annually may boost textile exports to USD 14 billion in case closed capacity worth USD 3 billion exports is revived through the enablers ensured by the government,” pointed out Ejaz.
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#Bangladesh #garment makers ask government to extend export subsidy after wage hike in Dec to sustain $30 billion #RMG #exports. Prices of readymade garments in 2018 were 7.4% lower in the U.S. market and 3.64% less in the European market than in 2012. https://reut.rs/2IpHCiG
Bangladesh’s garment makers have asked the government to extend a 5 percent export subsidy for the industry, saying they are being squeezed between low international prices for clothing and rising production costs.
The country’s garment industry, the world’s second biggest producer, currently receives a 5 percent cash incentive for exports but that is due to end on June 30.
Siddiqur Rahman, the president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, told reporters on Wednesday that without the subsidy, more garment makers would go out of business. The association says that 1,200 garment factories have closed down in Bangladesh in the past five years.
Siddiqur said another 5 percent cash incentive on exports would cost the government $1.67 billion.
Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi told Reuters that he would talk to the finance minister about including the proposal in the budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1.
“After the enhancement of wages since December last year there is a pressure to the owners and if they get some cash incentive that would be a relief,” said Tipu.
Siddiqur said that the prices of readymade garments in 2018 were 7.4 percent lower in the U.S. market and 3.64 percent less in the European market than they had been in 2012.
At the same time the manufacturers’ costs have been climbing, mainly driven by labour costs.
Last year, there was a big increase in the minimum wage for Bangladesh garment makers and that drove the costs of production higher.
Bangladesh earns about $30 billion annually by exporting readymade garments.
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As U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war against Beijing intensifies, American buyers are diversifying their supplier base away from China, the No. 1 exporter of these goods to the U.S. Already, Bangladesh is close to snatching the trousers-to-towel crown. Pakistan, at No. 6 last year, has grown its own shipments to the U.S. by almost 12% this year. It may overtake India, which has seen virtually no improvement.
The good news is that the Pakistani rupee has fallen by almost 20% since 2017. That’s virtually wiped out the currency’s overvaluation adjusted for inflation differences with trading partners, as estimated by the IMF. If the currency slides further and inflation doesn’t accelerate, Pakistani exports should receive a boost, provided global growth and cotton availability for the textile industry hold up.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-12/pakistan-flir...
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Pakistan’s textile exports stagnant; RMG marks 3.2% growth
by Apparel Resources News-Desk
21-May-2019https://apparelresources.com/business-news/trade/pakistans-textile-...
Mainstay of Pakistan’s economy, the textile industry of the country is in a sticky situation lately.
As per reports, in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year of 2018/19, textile exports from Pakistan remained flat at US $ 11.1 billion, as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. And this despite Government’s various measures to boost exports.
However, on the positive side, export of readymade garments, bedwear and knitwear registered growth in the period under review.
As per data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), export of RMG improved 3.2 per cent to US $ 2.1 billion, while export of knitwear exports increased by 7 per cent year-on-year to US $ 2.3 billion and, export of bedwear marked an increase of 2.4 per cent to US $ 1.9 billion.
Further, in this period, export of raw cotton declined drastically by 67.2 per cent to US $ 18.5 million while export of cotton yarn fell 15.7 per cent to US $ 941.3 million.
Exports of cotton cloth also reportedly fell 2.7 per cent to US $ 1.7 billion (in the July-April period of the current fiscal year).
It may be mentioned here that due to continuous devaluation of rupee (fell by around 20 per cent in last year alone), exporters are able to improve on their margins on exports but on the flipside cost of doing business has gone up significantly.
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Asia labor costs and China manufacturing relocation impact considerations
https://www.ventureoutsource.com/contract-manufacturing/asia-labor-...
Below, the annual cost (average) per manufacturer worker in China, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, India, Vietnam per Japan external trade organization (JETRO).
Average annual cost of a manufacturing worker (US$, 2017)
China: $10,131
Thailand: $6,997
Malaysia: $5,900
Indonesia: $5,421
Pakistan: $4,379
Philippines: $4,102
India: $3,982
Vietnam: $3,673
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#Asia #Pacific trade pact can go on without #India 'for the time being' as China grows impatient with the slow progress on the #RCEP talks. #Malaysian PM Mahathir proposes going ahead with just 13 countries — without #India, #Australia and #NewZealand. https://cnb.cx/2L91HdL
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Saturday that he’s willing to conclude a mega Asia-Pacific trade agreement without India “for the time being.”
Mahathir was referring to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, which involves 16 countries in Asia Pacific. Negotiations have been going on since 2013, with one of the major sticking points being India’s reluctance to open up its markets.
A recent report by Nikkei Asian Review said China, growing impatient with the slow progress on RCEP talks, proposed going ahead with just 13 countries — removing India, Australia and New Zealand from the deal.
The 16 countries involved in RCEP are the 10 Southeast Asian nations and six of their large trading partners: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. If the agreement is finalized, the 16 countries will form a major trading bloc that covers around one-third of the world’s gross domestic product.
GP 190621 Containers at Lianyungang Port
Aerial view of shipping containers sitting stacked at Lianyungang Port on June 3, 2019 in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China.
Wang Jianmin | Visual China Group | Getty Images
In an interview with CNBC’s Tanvir Gill, Mahathir acknowledged the hurdles in reaching a deal among the 16 countries.“I think we will work towards it. It’s quite difficult because we are competing economies ... we’re competing with each other and from there, to go on to work together requires some radical change in our mindset. That will take time,” he said in Bangkok, Thailand, where he’s attending a summit for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
In the end, we have to stop this trade war and certainly not to escalate (it).
Mahathir Mohamad
MALAYSIAN PRIME MINISTER
The Malaysian leader added that RCEP participants will have to consider which framework works best: China’s proposed 13-nation deal or the original one involving all 16 countries.“But I think I would prefer 13 ... for the time being,” he said, suggesting he’s open to having India, Australia and New Zealand joining the pact in the future.
Trade war escalation
Several participating countries of RCEP have expressed hopes of coming to an agreement by the end of this year, as they say the U.S.-China tariff fight has brought fresh urgency to wrap up talks in Asia Pacific.U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet later this month at the G-20 summit in Japan. But Mahathir — like many who follow the developments closely — said he doesn’t expect much to come out of that meeting.
Taking sides in the trade war will be a ‘disaster for the world:’ Mahathir
Malaysia has often been cited as one of the beneficiaries of the trade war as companies move production out of China to circumvent elevated U.S. tariffs. Muhammed Abdul Khalid, an economic advisor to Mahathir, told CNBC in May that the Southeast Asian nation’s growth is set to gain an additional 0.1 percentage points due to the trade diversions to his country.While that’s good for Malaysia, Mahathir on Saturday cautioned that such benefits may only be temporary. He explained that if there’s a change in government in the U.S., the new administration may have a new set of policies that could once again prompt companies to rethink where they want to locate their production and supply chains.
“In the short term, I think it is good news. But in the end, we have to stop this trade war and certainly not to escalate (it),” he said.
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#Pakistan #exports to #Europe up 54% Since Grant of GSP+ Trade Preference For Pakistani Products https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2019/07/14/pakistan-exports-to-eu...
European Union Ambassador to Pakistan Jean-François Cautain has stated that Pakistan’s export to Europe has increased fifty four per cent after grant of GSP Plus status to the country.
Talking to representatives of Council of Pakistan Newspaper Editors at National Press Club in Islamabad, he said GSP plus is a great opportunity for Pakistan to enhance its export especially in the areas of textile, surgical equipment, leather and sports goods.
He said the EU is focusing on improvement of education, vocational training, women development and governance in Pakistan. The Ambassador said EU’s new engagement plan for Pakistan is moving ahead to the strategic and security level. He said this plan will further improve military to military relations between EU and Pakistan.
He said the EU will review implementation of twenty seven conventions of International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights which is a requirement for GSP plus status. Later, he also planted a sapling in the lawn of National Press Club.
Meanwhile, Chairman Board of Investment, (BOI) Zubair Gilani said that Pakistan is deeply fascinated by China’s example of industrialisation and economic wisdom.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative and industrial cooperation between the two nations is the first step in transforming the lives of people of the two countries, he expressed these remarks while briefing a 50-member Chinese Investment Delegation here at BoI on Thursday.
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