Pakistan EV Launches to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistani automobile joint ventures with Chinese automakers BYD and Changan have recently launched several all-electric and plug-in hybrid models of automobiles in Pakistan. Earlier, Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited announced plans to build a hybrid electric vehicles plant in the country. Other major brands like Toyota, Haval, and Hyundai are already offering similar models in the country. It all began with the 2019 electric vehicle policy approved by the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan to incentivize the electrification of the auto industry. Pakistan EV policy goal is to achieve 30% of new cars sales, 50% of new 2-wheeler and 3-wheeler sales and 30% of new truck sales by 2030. By 2040, the target is 90% of all new vehicle sales to be electric. The main incentive is the reduction of sales tax from 17% for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to 1% for all-electric (EV) vehicles.

BYD EV. Source: CNBC

BYD Launch:

Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD has announced plans to open an EV production plant in Karachi.  It will start selling three EV models in Pakistan through a partnership with Mega Motors. Mega Motors is a unit of Pakistan's largest private utility Hub Power Co Ltd (HPWR.PSX), known as Hubco. 

"Our entry into the Pakistani market is not just about bringing advanced vehicles to consumers," said Liu Xueliang, BYD's general manager for Asia Pacific, according to Reuters. "It's about driving a broader vision of environmental responsibility and technological innovation." "We will establish Pakistan's first NEV assembly plant... dedicated to producing BYD's cutting-edge new energy vehicles," said Hubco Chief Executive Kamran Kamal, who described the deal as a "landmark investment".

The BYD factory will be built near Karachi’s Port Qasim area that already houses assembly plants for other automobile companies including Toyota, Suzuki Motor Corp. and Kia Corp.’s local units. It will be completed in the first half of 2026, according to Bloomberg. 

Last year, BYD’s total production – comprising battery-only powered cars as well as hybrids – was more than 3 million and surpassed Tesla’s production of 1.84 million cars for a second straight year, according to CNBC. 

A BYD model comparable to Tesla Model Y is $10,000 cheaper and has more features, according to news reports. 

Changan Launch: 

Master Changan Motors Limited (MCML), a joint venture between Pakistan's Master Group of Industries and China's Changan International, launched Changan’s electric-first brand, DEEPAL, this month in Karachi, Pakistan.  The joint venture unveiled the brand Deepal with 2 models, L07, the pure electric sports luxury sedan and S07 the pure electric premium SUV. 

Both Changan models offer 250 HP and 320 Nm of instant torque, going from  0-100 km/hr in just 5.9 seconds. The Ternary Lithium battery by CATL has a capacity of 66.8 kWh and provides an exceptional range of up to 540 km in L07 and 485 km in S07. The cars are designed in Italy in Changan’s R&D center and have won the German RedDot design award in 2023 with its futuristic design, according to media reports. 

Changan has sold 45,000 cars in Pakistan in the last 5 years. 

Honda Atlas:

Last month Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HACPL) announced its plan to invest Rs. 5 billion in a cutting-edge hybrid vehicle production facility in Pakistan. This investment will support the local manufacturing and assembly of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). 

The company recently reported a 324% jump in sales, totaling Rs. 15.97 billion compared to Rs. 3.77 billion in the same period last year. The company reported a gross profit of Rs. 1.01 billion for the first quarter of FY25.

Two and Three Wheelers:

Prior to the BYD and Changan EV launches, Pakistan granted EV manufacturing licenses to 32 local companies under the EV Policy 2019, according to the Business Recorder newspaper.  Metro Electric Bikes, VLEKTRA and Sazgar Engineering Works are among the key names leading the two and three wheeler EV manufacturing in Pakistan. 

“Motorcycle buyers have started to inquire about electric bikes, scooty, and scooters options. I believe many have postponed buying a normal two-wheeler with expectations that an electric two-wheel model may soon enter the market that is closer to their need,” said Sabir Sheikh, who is also the Chairman, Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers (APMA), according to media reports. 

Charging Infrastructure: 

A number of investors, including ADM Group, Hashoo Group and Hubco are planning to invest in building a nationwide EV charging stations network. The EV policy provides incentives for it by reducing import duty on charging equipment imports to just 1% and lower power tariffs. It also ensures uninterrupted power supply on feeders fir charging stations. 

Hubco said it will setup fast-charging stations across major cities, motorways and highways to enhance Pakistan's charging infrastructure, according to Reuters.  The EV policy calls for at least one fast DC charging station per 3km by 3km area in all major cities as well as DC fast chargers on all motorways every 15-30 km.

Soaring Imports of Chinese Solar Panels in Pakistan. Source: Bloomberg

Solar Power Boom:

With rapidly falling solar panel prices, Pakistan is experiencing a solar power boom in the country. The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules in the first six months of the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters, according to Bloomberg.

Rapid increase in solar power generation complements Pakistan's push to a clean energy economy and EV adoption. This may encourage some of the charging station operators to go solar with batteries to reduce their cost of power purchases from the grid. 

Climate Action:

Pakistan has contributed only 0.28% of the CO2 emissions but it is among the biggest victims of climate change. The US, Europe, India, China and Japan, the world's biggest polluters, must accept responsibility for the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and climate disasters elsewhere. A direct link of the disaster in Pakistan to climate change has been confirmed by a team of 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events, according to the New York Times. 

Top 5 Current Polluters. Source: Our World in Data

Currently, the biggest annual CO2 emitters are China, the US, India and Russia. Pakistan's annual CO2 emissions add up to just 235 million tons. On the other hand, China contributes 11.7 billion tons, the United States 4.5 billion tons, India 2.4 billion tons, Russia 1.6 billion tons and Japan 1.06 billion tons. 

Pakistan's Annual CO2 Emission. Source: Our World in Data

The United States has contributed 399 billion tons (25%) of CO2 emissions, the highest cumulative carbon emissions since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century. The 28 countries of the European Union (EU28), including the United Kingdom, come in second with 353 billion tons of CO2 (22%), followed by China with 200 billion tons (12.7%). 

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[Riaz Haq]

Electrification refers to the process of replacing technologies that use fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) with technologies that use electricity as a source of energy. Depending on the resources used to generate electricity, electrification can potentially reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation, building, and industrial sectors, which account for 65 percent of all US greenhouse gas emissions. Addressing emissions from these sectors is critical to decarbonizing the economy and, ultimately, mitigating the impacts of climate change. This explainer reviews how electrification can reduce emissions; possibilities and potential challenges of electrification in the transportation, building, and industrial sectors; and policy options for encouraging electrification.

https://www.rff.org/publications/explainers/electrification-101/#:~....

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Is Only the Beginning of the Cheap Solar Revolution

By Ryan Cooper, managing editor at The American Prospect, and author of the book "How Are You Going to Pay for That?: Smart Answers to the Dumbest Question in Politics."

No need for expensive imported fuel when your energy is coming from the sun.

https://heatmap.news/economy/pakistan-solar

Pakistan imported a whopping 13 gigawatts of solar panels, mostly from China, in just the first half of 2024, mostly for rooftop installations for homes and businesses. That’s a mind-boggling amount of new solar for a country that only had about 50 gigawatts of installed generation capacity in total in 2023.
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Fuel imports are one of the largest expenses for even prosperous countries. For places like Pakistan, they are a punishing economic drain. Paying for vast amounts of imported coal, gas, and oil in scarce foreign currency is hard enough in good times, but it’s disastrous when one’s currency has depreciated by about 40% over two years.

Dirt cheap solar power could ameliorate or solve many of these problems at a stroke. Panels are now so cheap, even Pakistan can afford to import them by the millions — an expense, yes, but a one-time one. And while solar is inherently intermittent, and therefore not a solution to Pakistan’s reliability problems, batteries are also plummeting in price — down about 90% between 2010 and 2023 — and can help balance out supply. Cheaper batteries also mean cheaper EVs, with (as usual) Chinese models coming out at bewilderingly low prices. And because Pakistanis mostly drive motorcycles (often manufactured domestically) over relatively short distances, electrifying the personal vehicle fleet there will be far cheaper than in America or Europe; vastly smaller batteries require vastly simpler charging infrastructure.

If all goes well, this will free up vast amounts of economic capacity for Pakistan to invest in domestic development. Businesses will have stable, reliable power supplies that will justify more investment. Households will be able to upgrade their insulation, install heat pumps, and generally spend more on things other than energy. The government will be able to upgrade legacy transmission lines to accommodate solar production from the remaining hydro and nuclear plants.

Finally, of course, there is the climate benefit. Pakistan is one of the countries most threatened by climate change. Summer heat waves are bad and getting worse, to the point where murderous wet bulb events are increasingly likely. Catastrophic warming-fueled storms in 2022 caused the worst flooding in the country’s history, inundating about a third of Pakistan’s land area, killing nearly 2,000 people and causing billions of dollars in damages.

In short, a path to economic development will be opened. It is by no means guaranteed, but it will be a heck of a lot easier than trying to dig out from under the debt mountain of the collapsing coal-powered system. Look around the developing world and you’ll find there are a great many nations in similar situations.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan emerged as second-largest market for Chinese photovoltaic products | REVE News of the wind sector in Spain and in the world


https://www.evwind.es/2024/10/02/pakistan-emerged-as-second-largest...

Pakistan has emerged as a significant new market for Chinese photovoltaic (PV) companies, aligning with its path toward energy transformation.

According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), in the first half of 2024, Asia overtook Europe as the largest export destination for PV products and Pakistan has become the second-largest market for module exports after Europe.

During the same period, China exported inverters worth a total of RMB 1.714 billion to Pakistan. In August alone, the total value of inverter exports to Pakistan reached 326 million yuan, showing a year-on-year surge of 429.04%. And shimmering blue panels now sit atop a vast array of factories, households, hospitals and mosques.

The surge in exports of photovoltaics and supporting products reflects the urgency of turning to new energy power generation in Pakistan, China Economic Net reported on Tuesday.

“Electricity prices continue to rise; thus, people are trying to find their own way out,” Abbas a Pakistani trader said at the Investment and Trade Forum for Cooperation between East and West China.

As of June 2023, the installed capacity of solar power in Pakistan stood at 630 megawatts, namely 1.4% of the overall installed power capacity, which has a huge room for improvement.

In terms of natural conditions, according to the World Bank’s Global Solar Atlas data, taking Balochistan with good lighting conditions as an example, the average annual total photovoltaic output power of a 1KW household photovoltaic system can reach 1990kWh (corresponding to approximately 1990h of sunlight), which is approximately 41% and 59% higher than New Delhi, India and Shandong Province, China, respectively; the Global Tilted Irradiance (GTI) can reach 2536.5KWh/square meter, which is approximately 36% and 61% higher than New Delhi, India and Shandong Province, China respectively.

In terms of policies, for the past few years, the Pakistani government has highly supported the development of renewable energy, setting a strategic goal of increasing the share of renewable energy and alternative energy in Pakistan’s electricity market to 20% by 2025 and to 30% by 2030.

The IGCEP2047 released by NEPRA showed that Pakistan’s PV installed capacity will achieve leapfrog growth in the next few years. It is expected that by 2030, the PV installed capacity will reach 12.8GW, and by 2047 it is expected to reach 26.9GW. According to calculations, in order to achieve the 2030/2047 goals, the average annual new PV installed capacity needs to reach 1.65/1.07GW respectively.

Businesses in Pakistan are racing to cover their factory rooftops with reasonably priced Chinese solar panels. “Every bit of space I have, even if it’s a few feet, I want it covered in solar panels,” said Khawaja Masood Akhtar, chief executive of Forward Sports, whose factory is one of the world’s largest makers of footballs. His company had already doubled the level of solar in its energy mix to 50% over the past two years. Akhtar is now ploughing a chunk of last year’s profits into importing another haul of panels from China to lift the share of solar supply to his operations to 80% by next April.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan ends power deals to save $1.48 billion, cut tariffs | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-biggest-private-u...

Government to save 411 billion rupees
Negotiations with more power producers underway
IMF bailout talks influenced decision to revisit power deals

KARACHI, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Pakistan's government has ended power purchase contracts with five private companies, including one with the country's largest utility that should have been in place until 2027, to cut costs, officials said on Thursday.
The news confirms comment from Power Minister Awais Leghari to Reuters last month that the government was re-negotiating deals with independent power producers to lower electricity tariffs as households and businesses struggle to manage soaring energy costs.
"We studied these agreements and we decided what plants we need and what plants we don't need," Leghari told a news conference in Islamabad on Thursday, adding the termination of the take or pay agreements will save the nation nearly 411 billion rupees ($1.48 billion) in the coming years.
Take or pay is referred to as capacity payments in Pakistan where the government has to pay private companies irrespective of how much of the power they generate is transferred to its grid.

Negotiations have also begun with other power producers to revise their contracts, Leghari said, adding people would soon see the impact in their monthly bills.
"Our aim is to bring the tariff down," he said.
The need to revisit the deals was an issue in talks for a critical staff-level pact in July with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $7-billion bailout.
Earlier on Thursday Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Pakistan has agreed with five independent power producers to revisit purchase contracts. He said that would save the country 60 billion rupees a year.

Pakistan's biggest private utility, Hub Power Company Ltd (HPWR.PSX), opens new tab, also said the company agreed to prematurely end a contract with the government to buy power from a southwestern generation project.
In a note to the Pakistan Stock Exchange, it said the government had agreed to meet its commitments up to Oct. 1, instead of an initial date of March 2027, in an action taken "in the greater national interest".

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Aims to Slash Power Prices for EV Charging Stations

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-aims-slash-power-prices-110...

(Bloomberg) -- Pakistan is looking to stimulate demand for electric vehicles by reducing power prices at charging stations, as the country attempts to kickstart the decarbonization of its transport sector.

The South Asian nation will create demand “by bringing down drastically the prices for new sectors including EVs,” Power Minister Awais Leghari said in an interview. The government is discussing a pricing structure and the incentive would apply to all charging and battery swapping stations for small cars, two-wheelers and three-wheelers, he added.



More than half a dozen auto companies, led by Chinese brands, have launched EV models in Pakistan this year. Chinese EV maker BYD’s local partner Hub signed an agreement with the country’s largest fuel retailer, Pakistan State Oil, this month to jointly establish an EV charging network across the nation.

Meanwhile, the country has seen a drop in electricity demand while prices have soared and the government has had to secure loans from the International Monetary Fund.

As part of the $7 billion loan requirements, the government is working on a flurry of reforms to restore the energy sector’s viability. The nation is in talks to revise purchase contracts with local power companies and reprofiling debt with Chinese lenders.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration also wants to move away from the existing model of the government being the sole buyer of electricity, and create a wider market, Leghari said.



The independent market operator system will be functional by March and broader trade is expected to pick up within a year, he said.