Pak-Saudi Joint Defense: Is Pakistan A Major Power or Bit Player in the Middle East?

[Riaz Haq]

The recently signed “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both”. It is being seen by some geopolitical analysts as the beginning of an "Islamic NATO". Others, such as Indian-American analyst Shadanand Dhume, have dismissed Pakistan as no more than a "bit player" in the Middle East. Where does the truth lie? 

Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif(L) with Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Is Pakistan really capable of defending Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations against external aggression such as the recent Israeli attack on Qatar? Can Pakistan provide a nuclear umbrella to deter aggression against its friends in the Middle East? Or is it too weak economically and unstable politically to provide security guarantees to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates?  Let's try and understand the context which has brought about this bilateral security arrangement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. 

The oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have long relied on the West for their security. But, on September 9, 2025, when Israel launched an airstrike on a residential compound in Doha, Qatar, the U.S. and its western allies did nothing to defend the Qataris. It’s notable that this attack occurred on a U.S. ally which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The fact that the United States did nothing to stop this Israeli aggression has shaken the confidence of the G.C.C. nations in the willingness of the United States to defend them, particularly from any Israeli attacks. Israel has attacked almost every country in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the last 12 months.  Israel has gone rogue. It is carrying out a genocide in Gaza with impunity. It is being aided and abetted by the West in its crimes against humanity. It appears to have the license from the United States to do so. 

Given these realities, who can the Gulf Arabs turn to for security?  Which Muslim nation has Saudi Arabia had the closest military ties with for decades?  Which country with nuclear weapons is most likely to deter attacks on the Saudis from nuclear-armed adversaries like Israel? Who else but nuclear-armed Pakistan!  

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

There has been no official reaction to the Pakistani-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement so far. However, judging from the recent cordial meeting of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir with President Trump at the White House, it appears that Team Trump does not object to it. 

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor".  The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. Last year, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland. 

In January this year at an Islamabad event,  Ambassador Munir Akram articulated potential rationales for developing a missile of increased range, according to the US Congressional Research Service. A missile exceeding the Shaheen-III range may be necessary to reach Indian missiles deployed on bases in the Indian Ocean located "well beyond" the Shaheen-III range, he said, adding that India has sought to establish access to such bases. Akram also posited that Pakistan may need to develop an indigenous space launch vehicle or an anti-satellite weapon; ballistic missile programs can aid the development of such platforms.

Biden Administration Accused Pakistan of Developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Yes, Pakistan does have a weak economy. But that is primarily because of significant underinvestment over decades. That’s where the oil-rich Gulf Arab nations can help. They have been investing trillions of dollars in the West in the hope of getting security from them. They have huge sovereign investment funds which can invest in Pakistan. Even if they invest a fraction of what they have invested in the U.S., the positive effects on Pakistan’s economy will be immense. 

As to Pakistan’s political instability, it can be managed by a hybrid system of government where the politicians and the generals reach an understanding to benefit both as well as the country. It will also serve Saudi interests to use its considerable influence in Pakistan to bring political and economic stability to the country. 

Given today's geopolitical realities, Pakistan is the best choice for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to deter aggression from Israel and other aggressors in the region.  Gulf Arab nations have generally welcomed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, viewing it as a move that strengthens regional security amid concerns about US commitments. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has also welcomed it, describing it as "a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system". In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, he said: “Iran welcomes the defensive pact between the two brotherly Muslim countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of the Muslim states of West Asia in the political security and defense domains”.  

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[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan to be sold advanced US air-to-air missiles by Raytheon - World - DAWN.COM

https://www.dawn.com/news/1947237

Pakistan will be sold Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) by United States defence group Raytheon following a modification in the firm’s contract that included the country in the list of buyers, it emerged on Tuesday.

The US missiles are equipped on F-16 Falcons flown by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

A September 30 press release on the contracts issued by the US Department of War for the US Air Force said Raytheon was awarded a $41.6 million firm-fixed-price modification to a previously awarded contract for the enhanced C8 and D3 AMRAAM variants and their production.

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AI Overview
The Silent Hunter: Ultimate Guide to the AMRAAM Missile
Pakistan will be receiving AIM-120D-3 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) from the United States, which are expected to have a range of over 160 kilometers (99 miles), with some reports indicating a potential of up to 200-300 km for various variants. This is a significant upgrade from the AIM-120C5 variant the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) currently operates on its F-16s. The deal aims to enhance Pakistan's air defense capabilities and is part of improved military cooperation between the two nations.

[Riaz Haq]

After Two Years of War, Israel Is Stronger—and More Isolated—Than Ever - The Wall Street Journal

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/after-two-years-of-war-israel...


Israel is emerging from the carnage as the regional hegemon with a string of military victories. But the country’s fight against Palestinian militant group Hamas also has left it increasingly politically isolated and at risk of losing long-term Western support that has been vital to its survival.

The deaths of more than 67,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local authorities, have revived global calls for Palestinian statehood and put Israel at odds with a solidifying international consensus.

Once recovered from the initial shock of the Hamas breakthrough and murderous spree on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s military has delivered a succession of crippling blows to the entire constellation of its strategic foes.

Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have been decapitated, the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed, and Iran’s military leadership, missile and nuclear programs have been badly damaged.

“Regionally, Israel is under less threat than it was two years ago,” said Shalom Lipner, a fellow at the Atlantic Council who served as an adviser to several Israeli prime ministers. “But internationally, it’s between a rock and a hard place, and the long-term trends are not working in its favor.”

Anger at Israel has spread from the Muslim world to Europe and increasingly the U.S., where large parts of the Democratic Party and a growing part of the MAGA movement have now turned against American assistance to Israel.

While President Trump has remained supportive, Israel’s new isolation has given him unusual leverage—a power that he has already exercised to block plans for annexing the West Bank, to make Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologize for a strike on Qatar, and to make Israel acquiesce to the latest Gaza cease-fire plan.

This alienation of Israel’s erstwhile friends around the world stands to erode, in a potentially lasting way, not only the standing of Netanyahu and his successors but also the long-term viability of Israel’s founding project.

From American university campuses to European high schools, solidarity with the Palestinian cause—and hostility to Zionism—have become the political markers of a new generation.


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Saudi Arabia’s recent security pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan, as well as tighter cooperation between Arab nations and Turkey are all part of that regional response to the Israeli military strength, said retired British Air Marshal Martin Sampson, who heads the Middle East office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and served as the U.K. government defense adviser to the Middle East.

“You see the development of beginnings of relationships with Iran and of sympathy for Iran over Israel,” he said. “The region never wanted a single dominant power in the region. They always thought it was going to be Iran, and now they’ve got one and it’s Israel. And Israel is a regional dominant power that freely exercises its hard-power capabilities.”

[Riaz Haq]

GO Telecommunications Group has announced the creation of GO AI Hub Pakistan, a centre for AI and digital innovation, during a meeting with Pakistan's IT Minister, Shaza Fatima Khawaja, in Riyadh. The hub aims to foster collaboration in digital infrastructure, AI, and human capital development between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

Set to launch in October 2025, the hub will promote knowledge exchange, capacity building, and joint digital solutions. The minister praised GO's contributions to AI, cybersecurity, and data-driven technologies, aligning with Pakistan’s "Digital Nation Vision" to become a regional tech leader.

[Riaz Haq]

AI Overview
Recent analyses suggest the September 2025 Pakistan-Saudi defense pact significantly involves China, given Beijing's deep military and economic ties with Islamabad and strengthening relations with Riyadh. The deal reflects a multipolar shift in which Saudi Arabia is diversifying its security partnerships beyond the United States.
China's involvement
While China is not a formal party to the pact, its extensive cooperation with Pakistan and evolving relationship with Saudi Arabia bring it into the equation in several key ways:
Military supply chain: China is Pakistan's primary arms supplier, accounting for 81% of its imports from 2020 to 2024. Pakistan's military, which trains Saudi forces, operates sophisticated Chinese equipment, including the J-35 stealth fighter and HQ-19 air defense systems offered in a recent arms deal.
Defense industrial ties: Saudi Arabia has a long-term goal of localizing defense production under its Vision 2030 plan. Since Pakistan has co-produced defense systems with China, Saudi Arabia could invest as a financier or a buyer in joint Pakistan-China defense platforms.
Nuclear energy and proliferation: The pact has intensified concerns that China could enable Saudi nuclear ambitions. Though China denies it, Beijing has a history of assisting Saudi Arabia's missile program and recently signed a memorandum of understanding on nuclear energy security.
Economic influence: As a top trading partner and oil customer for both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, China gains increased economic influence from the pact. For instance, Saudi Arabia could purchase Chinese nuclear reactors to free up more oil for export.
Strategic hedging: By formalizing a defense partnership with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its strategic relationships and creating more independence from the U.S.. This aligns with Riyadh's increasingly multi-aligned foreign policy, which includes stronger ties with China.
Implications and future considerations
Shifting regional dynamics: The pact is seen by some as a silent victory for Beijing, expanding its influence in the Middle East. China views these diversified partnerships positively, which could expand its arms sales and influence across the region.
Impact on the U.S.: The agreement highlights Saudi Arabia's growing wariness of U.S. reliability as a security guarantor. Some U.S. analysts have argued that Washington should tolerate this arrangement, as it allows regional actors to hedge against rivals without America having to spend more.
Multipolarity: Overall, the pact is part of a broader trend of multipolarity, in which countries like Saudi Arabia are balancing their traditional alliances with new partnerships. It further cements China as a significant player in the Middle East.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan, Qatar pledge to translate shared trade, investment goals into ‘tangible outcomes’

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2620049/pakistan

The statement comes after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with Qatar’s minister of commerce and industry in Islamabad
Sharif invites Qatari investors to explore new avenues of bilateral collaboration in energy, agriculture, food security, IT and tourism


ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Qatar have reaffirmed their commitment to deepening economic cooperation and translating shared trade and investment goals into “tangible outcomes,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said on Friday.

The statement came after Sharif’s meeting with Qatari Commerce and Industry Minister Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al-Thani, who is on a visit to Pakistan to co-chair the 6th session of Pakistan-Qatar Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC).

During the meeting, PM Sharif expressed satisfaction at the positive trajectory of Pakistan-Qatar relations, anchored in shared faith, values and mutual respect, appreciating Doha’s role as an important partner and an influential mediator.

The prime minister underscored the importance of enhancing bilateral trade and investment cooperation between the two countries, emphasizing opportunities in energy, agriculture, food security, information technology, tourism and infrastructure development.

“He highlighted Pakistan’s investor-friendly policies and invited Qatari investors to explore new avenues of collaboration,” Sharif’s office said.

“Both sides agreed to continue close coordination to translate shared understandings into tangible outcomes, including greater facilitation for business-to-business linkages and investment projects.”

The development came a day after Pakistan and Qatar have signed a protocol that commits both nations to realize Doha’s $3 billion investment in Pakistan’s key sectors, the Pakistani economic affairs ministry said.

In 2022, the Qatari emir’s office had said that the Qatar Investment Authority aims to invest $3 billion in Pakistan to support the South Asian nation’s cash-strapped economy, focusing on Pakistan’s transport, civil aviation, education, health, culture, media, communications, information technology and labor sectors.

The agreement was signed between Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan and his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al Thani, during the JMC meeting, the economic affairs ministry said.

Qatar will enhance cooperation in Pakistan’s public transport system including rail, bus and metro networks and support the adoption of electric vehicles in the country, according to the protocol. Pakistan and Qatar’s aviation authorities will meet early next year to further strengthen cooperation, it added. The protocol also included a memorandum of understanding between Pakistan and Qatar’s education ministries to enhance technical skills development.

Pakistan shares cordial ties with Qatar rooted in economic cooperation, defense, shared values, faith and culture. Qatar hosts a large Pakistani workforce and this month facilitated dialogue that resulted in a ceasefire with Afghanistan after days of skirmishes along their border.

During his meeting with PM Sharif, the Qatari commerce minister reaffirmed Doha’s commitment to further deepen economic engagement with Pakistan, according to the Pakistan PM’s office.

“He noted that the 6th session of the JMC provided an important platform to review existing cooperation and identify new initiatives to advance mutually beneficial partnerships,” Sharif’s office said.

“The prime minister conveyed Pakistan’s deep appreciation for Qatar’s consistent support on regional and global issues and reiterated Pakistan’s desire to strengthen collaboration at regional and multilateral fora.”

[Riaz Haq]

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2617952/business-economy

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is planning to double its manpower exports to Saudi Arabia after the signing of a landmark defense deal between the two countries last month, officials told Arab News on Monday.

The country’s human resource exports to Saudi Arabia have already witnessed a steady rise over the past five years, according to the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment. Pakistan sent 1.88 million workers to Saudi Arabia between 2020 and 2024, up 21 percent from 1.56 million in 2015–2019.

Remittances from the Kingdom rose from $7.39 billion in 2020 to $8.59 billion in 2024, reflecting steady demand for Pakistani labor. In contrast, inflows from the United Arab Emirates fluctuated between $5.8 billion and $6.8 billion during the same period, while those from Qatar remained below $1 billion annually, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

In September, both countries signed a landmark defense pact that is meant to enhance joint deterrence and deepen decades of military and security cooperation. Top Pakistani government officials, including National Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer, have said Islamabad and Riyadh will sign a wide-ranging economic pact in the follow up of the defense deal.

“The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact will have a great impact on manpower export. Current average export is around half a million workers per year, and from next year, we hope to double it to one million,” said Gul Akbar, a senior director at the BEOE.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s economy on recovery path; remittances up 8.4%, exports rise 6.5%: Finance Ministry - Business & Economy - Aaj English TV

https://english.aaj.tv/news/330441584/pakistans-economy-on-recovery...

Finance Ministry says economic activity remains stable; forex reserves near $20bn despite FDI dip

The ministry reported an 8.4 per cent increase in workers’ remittances during July-September, reaching $9.53 billion, while September remittances rose 11.3 per cent to $3.18 billion.

Exports grew by 6.5 per cent to $7.9 billion, whereas imports rose 8.3 per cent to $15.4 billion during the same period.

The report noted that foreign exchange reserves reached $19.9 billion, including $14.5 billion held by the State Bank and $5.4 billion by commercial banks, while the rupee remained stable at 281 per dollar.

However, the current account deficit widened to $594 million, and foreign direct investment (FDI) declined by 34 per cent to $568.8 million in the first quarter.

Large-scale manufacturing output increased by 4.44 per cent, while the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) index surged 83.6 per cent, crossing the historic 163,304-point mark, with market capitalisation up 62 per cent to Rs18.8 trillion.

The report also highlighted a 33 per cent rise in new company registrations, reaching 11,250 during the quarter, and noted that the IMF staff-level agreement reflected confidence in Pakistan’s economic performance.

[Riaz Haq]

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan strengthen ties with new economic cooperation deal

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2620602/saudi-arabia

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reach agreement during Riyadh meeting
Strategic economic, trade, investment and development projects to be discussed

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have agreed to launch an economic cooperation framework to strengthen trade and investment relations.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif made the agreement during a meeting in Riyadh on Monday.

A joint statement said the framework was based on the two countries’ shared economic interests and depth of their historic partnership.

“As part of the framework, several strategic and high-impact projects will be discussed in the economic, trade, investment and development fields,” it said.

These projects will help strengthen cooperation between the two governments, “enhancing the pivotal role of the private sector and increasing trade exchange between the two countries.”

The agreement will prioritize energy, industry, mining, information technology, tourism, agriculture and food security.

The two countries have already signed a Memorandum of Understanding for an electricity interconnection project.

“This framework represents an extension of both countries’ efforts to strengthen their fraternal relations and reaffirms their shared vision toward building a sustainable partnership across various economic, trade and investment fields,” the statement said.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have enjoyed close relations for decades but have moved to broaden cooperation in recent years.

The crown prince and prime minister signed a landmark defense agreement last month which said aggression against either country represented aggression against both.

Last year, the two countries signed 34 MoUs worth $2.8 billion across multiple sectors.

[Riaz Haq]

Oct 31
1,

This thread is From a WikiLeaks cable dated January 24, 2007,

documenting a meeting between Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and now President of the UAE, and R. Nicholas Burns, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs at
Show more
Warfare Analysis
@warfareanalysis
·
Oct 31
2, MBZ views on free elections: “Middle East is not California”

"MBZ: if we want to make peace." In "The Middle East," he insisted, "is not
California." In the post 9/11 world "in any Muslim country you will
see the same result." While members of the U.S. Congress and
Show more
Warfare Analysis
@warfareanalysis
·
Oct 31
3, MBZ views on Quran schools: MBZ calls Quran schools “some Taliban schools”

“Correcting the situation required education, according to MbZ, a process that will take 25 to 50 years of focused effort to turn around deeply-rooted cultural phenomena.

In the western part of
Show more
Warfare Analysis


4, MBZ: Muslims should never have free elections, We should worry about 3 Islamic counties: Egypt 🇪🇬, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 , and Pakistan 🇵🇰.

“MbZ countered that, "free elections in the Middle East" could eventually mean that the U.S. would "have to find
somewhere else to get 17 million barrels (of oil) a day."

In Iraq, MbZ said, elections had produced "a disaster."

As for the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and pressure from jihadists inspired by Iran,

he said he was not worried about the UAE, which could hold out for a
long time: "The Iranians will have a hard time coming here, but we
will lose Arab countries like Lebanon and Palestine.

Thank God for Hosni Mubarak (described as a family friend of the Al Nahyan).

If Egypt has free elections, they will elect the Muslim Brothers."
There were three large Islamic countries to worry about, according to
MbZ: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.”

https://x.com/warfareanalysis/status/1984515658084704702

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Warfare Analysis
@warfareanalysis
6, MBZ calls Muslim scholars “some holy man in Mecca”

“Referring to the UAE situation, MbZ opined that of the 60,000
soldier UAE armed forces and its loyalties, some 50 to 80% would
respond to a call of "some holy man in Mekkah."

He repeatedly alluded to being "stoned" by his own citizens if he pushed some
subjects too openly.

Acknowledging the prodding by the U.S. to hold elections, MbZ said the process would take at least 20 years and that focus should be on the next generation.

"When I travel to Saudi
Arabia, I meet with 80-85 year old Saudi leaders who never learned of
the internet until they were 70. There is a big gap in Saudi
Arabia." MbZ said the UAE is addressing the educational aspect of
the problem by privatizing government schools with the aim of
privatizing 25% in 5 years so that there will eventually be 0%
"talebani Quran schools."”

https://x.com/warfareanalysis/status/1984515669862293546