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Riaz Haq has left a new comment on your post "Pakistan Must Renegotiate IPP Contracts to Solve E...":
#Pakistan has #electricity overcapacity but it still suffers #power shortages because of lack of #grid capacity. #PTI govt to increase investment in grid and delay about 10,000 MW worth of planned #coal/#wind power projects. #cost #debt #economy #PMLN https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/pakistan-struggl...
After spending decades tackling electricity shortages, Pakistan now faces a new and unfamiliar problem: too much generation capacity.
The South Asian nation’s power supply flipped to a surplus last year after a flurry of coal- and natural gas-fired plants were built, mostly financed by the Belt and Road Initiative launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. Pakistan is slated to have as much as 50% too much electricity by 2023, according to Tabish Gauhar, special assistant to Prime Minister Imran Khan for the power sector.
That is problematic because the government is the sole buyer of electricity and pays producers even when they don’t generate. To help tackle the issue, the government has negotiated with producers to end that system, lower their tariffs and asked them to delay the start of new projects, according to Gauhar. It is also trying to convince industries to switch to electricity from gas.
“We have a lot of expensive electricity and that is a burden,” he said.
While the Chinese financing and the surplus is a welcome change after years of shortages that left exporters unable to meet orders and major cities without electricity for much of the day, two main problems remain. The first is a creaking network, and the second is the need to supply cheaper power while keeping emissions in check.
“Pakistan has overcapacity, yet it still has power shortages because of the unreliability of the grid,” said Simon Nicholas, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis. “They haven’t invested in the grid the same way they’ve invested in power plants.”
The last nationwide blackout happened just last month after an outage at the country’s largest facility. While the new plants have also boosted coal generation to a record fifth of the power mix, Pakistan plans to increase the share of wind and solar to 30%, while another 30% will be generated from river-run dams.
Pakistan will pay private power producers 450 billion rupees ($2.8 billion) in overdue electricity bills in a deal to reduce future tariffs. The government targets to pay 40% of that bill by the end of February, with the second payment slated before December, according to Gauhar. A third of the payment will be made in cash, with the rest in fixed income instruments, he added.
About 8 gigawatts worth of government-owned power plants will also have tariffs reduced. And Pakistan plans to negotiate lower tariffs for mining and power generation at the Thar coalfield, said Gauhar.
The government aims to delay about 10 gigawatts worth of planned power projects, including coal and wind plants, since there won’t be any need for them next year, said Gauhar.
With a slump in demand on account of Covid-19, Pakistan’s installed capacity of electricity would jump to 41,335 Megawatt (MW), adding more woes on account of power tariff increase due to higher capacity payments and lower plant utilisation factors.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2242155/2-pakistans-installed-power-ca...
According to energy experts, most of the power plants would remain idle due to low demand of electricity in Pakistan following coronavirus-fuelled economic recession. This situation would lead to additional burden of capacity payments in the form of hike in electricity rates.
According to Covid-19 Responsive Annual Plan 2020-21, Pakistan’s power sector may face an unusual situation because of decreased demand of electric power consumption due to the outbreak. The energy demand could be suppressed for all primary energy sources like electricity, natural gas, LNG and petroleum products during the next financial year 2020-21.
In the power sector, plant utilisation factors for power generation stations will be low, increasing the cost of electricity, reveals the Annual Plan. According to it the power sector reforms would be accelerated to improve the energy transmission and distribution performance and overall management of the power sector. Special attention would be given to reduce the power losses to bring down the cost of electricity, it added.
During fiscal year 2020-21, the power generation capacity of 3,933 Megawatt (MW) including 447MW from renewable energy will be added, which will increase the existing installed capacity from 37,402MW to 41,335MW.
An amount of Rs204.54 billion has been proposed in the PSDP 2020-21 for power sector projects of generation, transmission and distribution including government budgeted, self-finance of power sector corporations excluding IPPs.
In year 2019-20, 1,441MW power will be added to the national grid. As a result, the installed capacity would be enhanced from 35,961MW to 37,402MW. As on June 2020, overall generation mix will consist of 49.1% indigenous resources and 50.9% imported fuels.
Regional connectivity
With a commitment to continue work, Pakistan has allocated Rs3 billion funds to execute Central Asia South Asia (CASA) power import project to import electricity from Central Asian States.
According to the budget document, an amount of Rs3 billion has been proposed in the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2020-21 for the project. The implementation of CASA will continue in 2020-21. The transmission capacity will be enhanced by 4,445MVA on 660Kv network to June 2021. Furthermore, about 94 kilometres and 880km transmission lines would be constructed on 500kv and 600kv, respectively.
An amount of Rs7.8 billion was allocated in PSDP 2019-20 for Central Asia South Asia (CASA) transmission project. Significant progress has been made on the transmission project envisaging laying 1,200km transmission lines for import of 1,300MW from hydel power generation from Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic through Afghanistan to Pakistan. The parties have signed core power agreements, including power purchase agreements (PPAs). Meanwhile, land possession has also been taken and security clearance at site is in progress.
Losses of power distribution companies are still higher than the global average of around 8%. Higher losses will be curtailed through power distribution companies’ enhancement projects. The government has given targets to distribution companies to reduce losses in the next financial year.
Circular debt
https://www.dawn.com/news/1599538
THE government’s plan to settle the outstanding dues of IPPs amounting to Rs450bn in three tranches is only the first step towards liquidation of the power sector’s circular debt. According to reports, the IPPs will get 30pc of their existing debt stock this month and the remaining amount in two equal tranches in June and December. Under the plan, one-third of the arrears will be paid to the power producers in cash and the remainder in the form of Pakistan Investment Bonds at the floating rate. The IMF also gave its nod to the plan after the government agreed to heftily increase the base electricity tariff as demanded by the lender of the last resort. The payment of the first tranche will immediately lead to materialisation of the MoUs signed between the government and power producers in August last year into formal agreements. The MoUs provide for changes in the terms of the existing power purchase agreements that will reduce the size of the guaranteed capacity payments or fixed costs paid to the IPPs, a major source of accumulation of the circular debt. The government is expecting savings of Rs850bn over a period of 10 years, following the modifications in PPAs. The IPPs, which had demanded full payment of their money before they agreed to implement their revised PPAs, seem to have moved away from their earlier position in the ‘larger interest of the country’ as the plan will also help them improve their tight liquidity position and make new investments in new schemes.
The settlement scheme covers the 50-odd IPPs which were set up in the 1990s and 2000s and had consented to the alterations proposed in their power purchase deals with the government. The majority of these plants have completed their life cycles or paid off their debts. Therefore, we should not expect an immediate resolution of the circular debt problem even after materialisation of the revised deals with the IPPs. In recent years, the major build-up in the circular debt has been caused by capacity payments to large power projects set up since 2015, primarily as part of the multibillion-dollar CPEC initiative, with Chinese money. So far, no progress has been made to get the terms of the PPAs with these companies renegotiated although we are told that contacts have been made with Beijing at the highest level. Until these contacts pay off, the resolution of the mounting power-sector debt will have to wait.
Pakistan’s surplus power generation capacity has come at a price
The country confronts steep electricity payments amidst persistent blackouts.
https://scroll.in/article/989919/pakistans-surplus-power-generation...
Pakistan’s dilemma is a surplus of power generation capacity – a problem it has avoided since the late 1990s. “We are producing much more than we need,” Tabish Gauhar, the prime minister’s special assistant on power, has been telling the media since January.
In his public remarks, he points out that the country cannot afford the new electricity that has been in its system ever since a spate of Chinese-built power plants began to come online in 2017. Gauhar also attributes the bulk of the increased cost to “fixed capacity charges” that he says have “gone through the roof”.
By some estimates, the country has had to pay capacity charges of 85,000 crore Pakistani rupees a year in the last few years, a figure projected to rise beyond 1.45 lakh crore Pakistani rupees by 2023 – by when it will be larger than the country’s present peacetime defence budget.
Technically capacity charges are not a budgetary item (they are paid through power bills sent to consumers rather than out of the government’s own budget). The escalating cost of surplus power generation has meant a continuous rise in consumer power tariffs.
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Javed Hassan
@javedhassan
Capacity payments to IPPs:
FY 2017-18 cRs250bn
FY 2018-19
FY 2019-20 cRs900bn
FY 2029-21 > cRs 1.0tr
FY 2023 > Rs 1.5tr
Electricity Consumption
2018 c106bn units
2019 c109bn units
From ‘18 to ‘23 Capacity payments increases by cRs1.25tr; or from Rs2.4/unit to Rs12/unit
https://twitter.com/javedhassan/status/1373715348147613702?s=20
Big problems with #Pakistan's IPP contracts signed by #PPP & #PMLN politicians: 1) Returns are guaranteed in US$ terms, not PKR. Devaluation of PKR has added billions to payments to IPPs. 2) Pakistan govt must pay capacity charges regardless of utilization
https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1373857897512198145?s=20
#British #Pakistani Professor Munir Kamal of Judge Business School appointed Pro Vice Chancellor of the prestigious #Cambridge University in #England. He's 1 of 5 Pro-Vice-Chancellors, who assist the Vice-Chancellor #education #business #economy #strategy https://www.staff.admin.cam.ac.uk/general-news/dr-kamal-munir-appoi...
Dr Munir is a Reader in Strategy and Policy at the Judge Business School, and is Academic Director at the Centre for Strategic Philanthropy. He is a University Race and Inclusion Champion, and is a Fellow of Homerton College.
In his role as Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Dr Munir will provide leadership on matters relating to the University’s community, with an emphasis on staff and external engagement. These areas of responsibility have increased significantly in recent years and are a priority area for the University.
Dr Munir’s new role takes over from Professor Eilis Ferran, who will complete her term in office as Pro‑Vice‑Chancellor for Institutional and International Relations at the end of this academic year. The international portfolio will be combined with the Pro‑Vice‑Chancellor (Research) role, since there are important synergies between the University’s international and research activities.
Dr Munir will lead the development and implementation of strategy and policy relating to all staff (academic and professional services). Building on the foundations put down during Professor Ferran’s tenure, he will have a focus on equality and diversity. The University’s aim is to stand out among its international peers for the excellence of its practice in this area. Dr Munir will also further develop the University’s considerable collections both as an important teaching and research resource, and in engagement with those outside the University community: locally, regionally, nationally and internationally.
There are five Pro-Vice-Chancellors, whose roles provide academic leadership to the University and support the Vice-Chancellor. They work as a team with the Heads of the Schools, the Registrary, the Chief Financial Officer and other senior colleagues, to ensure that the University maintains and enhances its contribution to society and its global academic standing.
A European think tank has blamed the World Bank for a role in Pakistan’s energy sector problems over the decades and for rushing through a long-term power generation plan based on dirty and expensive fuels under its ‘prior actions’ of loan programmes.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1663098
Recourse — an Amsterdam-based non-profit organisation — claims it holds financial institutions to account for harms to people and the environment and is funded by foundations and organisations working for environment and development under the European Union.
In its report “World Bank’s Development Policy Finance (DPF) 2015-21: Stuck in a carbon rut”, the European think tank said its studies in Indonesia and Pakistan showed the WB was “accelerating the use of natural gas and supporting fragile energy sectors that are heavily invested in coal”.
“In Pakistan the case study observes how DPF can have unintended consequences, even when ostensibly it is seeking to support a renewable energy transition,” the report said, adding the $400 million Programme for Affordable and Clean Energy (PACE) 2021/22 focused on measures to support the country’s transition to low-carbon energy. This loan disbursement was dependent on a prior action that required a commitment from the Pakistan government to transition to 66pc renewable energy by 2030 through the adoption of Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP), a least-cost generation plan. However, targets on renewable energy sources were slashed from 30-33pc of the energy mix to 17pc.
The energy plan includes the “commissioning of a portfolio of new generation projects including many hydropower projects, Thar coal-based projects, K-3 nuclear power plant, and over 4,000MW of solar- and wind-based renewable energy projects,” the report said, adding that the DPF was not subject to proper checks and balances in terms of transparency and accountability.
The report said the World Bank’s Prior Actions were opening a Pandora’s Box for unsustainable energy in Pakistan. The report said that despite the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, the World Bank committed $1.1 billion between 2014 and 2016 to energy sector reform in Pakistan that had an emphasis on tariff reform as “Prior Actions” to the disbursement of funds. “This tariff reform paved the way for Pakistan’s National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) to offer the most attractive upfront tariff for coal-fired power projects in the world”, thereby setting the stage for massive expansion of coal in the Thar region and beyond.
In 2021, Pakistan is completing its second year of foundational reforms to comply with ‘Prior Actions’ for three DPF operations amounting to $1.4bn. “In our analysis, the Prior Actions required by this DPF operation have had a destabilising effect on Pakistan’s ability to transition to a sustainable renewable energy pathway,” the report claimed.
On August 26, 2021, it said, Pakistan’s cabinet committee on energy under immense pressure to meet its Prior Actions towards the World Bank gave its hasty approval to the controversial IGCEP, which was approved a month later by Nepra with a strong dissenting note from Nepra’s vice-chairman who refused to sign it. The political pressure to fast-track the IGCEP came in August when WB Vice President Hartwig Schafer visited Pakistan and urged the government to accelerate the pace of power sector reforms.
The generation mix in the new IGCEP is now dominated by expensive and dirty fossil fuels, with additions of around 8.5GW of coal, and 10GW of LNG and gas to be made in the next 10 years. The IGCEP itself confirms that renewable energy is quickly becoming cheapest forms of new electricity generation, yet the IGCEP contradicts itself with the recommendation to rely less on these sources.
Javed Hassan
@javedhassan
The obscenity of the IPP contracts, signed first by PPP and the dramatically expanded by PMLN, manifests in so many different ways. First there’s the take or pay terms that means we pay even if we don’t consume. Next there’s the uncapped dollar indexation, so that tariffs rise as
https://twitter.com/javedhassan/status/1550010012247941120?s=20&...
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Javed Hassan
@javedhassan
rupee falls. Effectively we get slapped any which we go. Even as the economy slows down with higher interest rates and possibly consumption falls, we pay higher tariffs as consumers since govt continues to pay for what may not be consumed. Those who signed these contract were mad
https://twitter.com/javedhassan/status/1550010015364354049?s=20&...
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Javed Hassan
@javedhassan
or determined to screw the country. They could have been both
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40187211?ref=whatsapp
https://twitter.com/javedhassan/status/1550010017851604992?s=20&...
The country’s power sector regulator on Wednesday indicated more increase in electricity tariff through Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) after the rupee plunged to over Rs225 to the US dollar against its estimates of Rs200 to the dollar.
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40187211
This indication came from Nepra Chairman Tauseef H Farooqi during a public hearing on government of Pakistan’s motion with respect to increase in base tariff by Rs7.91 per unit, to be raised in three phases - Rs3.5 per unit in July, 2022, Rs3.5 per unit in August-September and Rs0.91 per unit from October onward. With this increase, the cumulative tariff of consumers will touch Rs40 per unit including taxes and surcharges from existing Rs27 per unit. The revised Schedule of Tariff (SoT) for distribution companies and K-Electric will be applicable after issuance of notification.
“We are in a catch 22 situation these days. The biggest problem is that the electricity consumers are troubled due to higher bills and others are concerned about the non-availability of electricity. Damned if we do, and damned if don’t” Chairman Nepra said adding that the country is passing through an “emergency” situation.
He further argued that fuel cost has increased by eight times and the rupee has touched Rs222 per dollar mark which are the main reasons for the increase in tariff.
“If the rupee value is reduced to half and fuel cost increased 8 times, then the cost of electricity generation increased by 16%. The country should not have opted for power generation on imported fuel,” he said adding that everyone knows what blunders Pakistan made with respect to power generation strategy.
Discos, KE’s base tariffs: Nepra all set to approve modifications
“If you ask me, I would say, we have committed a fundamental blunder. We should not have opted for imported fuel projects,” he maintained.
The regulator came under fire from consumers’ representatives, KCCI and media for being a “rubber stamp” with respect to passing on the proposed increase in tariff without raising any questions.
A Power Division team, headed by Joint Secretary, (Power Finance) Mahfooz Ahmed Bhatti, informed the authority that the government will extend a subsidy of Rs220 billion to the lifeline and protected category of consumers. He said that about 42% of total consumers are protected as no increase has been proposed for them. Nepra, in its determination of June 6, 2022 approved a revenue requirement of Rs2.584 trillion for FY2022-23 but the government decided to extend a subsidy of Rs220 billion to domestic consumers falling in the category of lifeline and protected, he added.
“Almost 50% of domestic consumers will not face a price shock due to the proposed increase of Rs7.91 per unit,” Bhatti maintained.
Naveed Ahmad from CPPA-G informed the authority that the government has also protected lower middle class consumers using 1-100 units per month and will pick up a subsidy of Rs11 per unit. The consumers using 101-200 units will be given a subsidy of Rs10.97 per unit.
Chairman Nepra inquired if the impact of the proposed increase of Rs0.91 per unit from October 1, 2022 will be offset by a drop in the existing QTA of Rs1.66 per unit, the representative of CPPA-G responded that the rationale is that with a drop of QTA of Rs1.66 per unit the impact will be reduced by Rs0.75 per unit in October 2022.
Nepra Director Tariff Mubashir Bhatti, further clarified that Rs7 per unit will be increased in July, August and September. However, the impact of Rs0.91 per unit will be offset with a drop of QTA of Rs1.66 per unit.
Joint secretary (Power Finance) Power Division said that revenue requirement was due from July 1, 2022 and now economic assumptions have further changed and which are changing every day.
Chairman Nepra forced Power Division’s team to make a categorical statement before the Authority that the former was not responsible for any delay in notification of tariff increase as reported in the press.
Mohammed Sohail
@sohailkarachi
Hub Power Company (HUBC), Pakistan largest independent power producer (IPP), announced a record profit of Rs62bn (up 110%)
Company announced extraordinary total dividend of Rs30/share for FY23.
As a result, Hubco stock has been one of the best performing at PSX, delivering a total return of 68% in the last one year. And the stock still trades at PE of 2x
https://x.com/sohailkarachi/status/1701556628007653634?s=20
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