Musharraf Era Textile Boom Returning to Pakistan?

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan textile industry is booming with exports soaring 27% to more than $6 billion in the first four months (July-October) of the current fiscal year. “We believe that $5 billion investment (in textile industry) in the Musharraf era would be matched in the next six to eight months”  says Zubair Motiwala, a leading textile industrialist and chairman of Businessmen Group (BMG), as quoted in the Pakistani media reports. Pakistan textile exports more than doubled from $5.2 billion to more than $11 billion during Musharraf years. Exports soared 19.43% in 2001, 20% in 2004, 24.5% in 2005 and 11.23% in 2006, all on President Musharraf's watch, according to "The Rise and Fall of Pakistan's Textile Industry: An Analytical View" published by Javed Memon, Abdul Aziz and Muhammad Qayyum.     

Pakistan Textile Exports Growth. Source: Javed Memon

Pakistani government officials report that the textile sector has invested $3-3.5 billion on modernization and expansion in the last 2-3 years and the investment is likely to match the $5 billion that was witnessed during Musharraf era when the sector was undergoing major modernization, balancing and replacement (BMR). Textile machinery imports jumped 110% in the last four months, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Capital equipment imports are contributing to Pakistan's widening trade gap. 

Pakistan Textile Exports Boom. Source: Bloomberg

All sectors of the textile industry from yarn to fabric to ready-made garments are experiencing double digit growth.  Ready-made garments exports jumped 22.34% during July-Oct 2021,  knitwear exports soared 35.45%, bed-wear posted positive growth of 21.30%, towel exports were up by 14.17%, cotton cloth rose 18.54%. Among primary commodities, cotton yarn exports surged by 71.39%, while yarn other than cotton by 114%. The export of made-up articles — excluding towels — rose by 11.55%, and tents, canvas and tarpaulin dipped by a massive 23.98% during the 4-month period.

International Comparison of Textile Machinery Imports. Source: Busi...

History of Pakistan Textile Machinery Imports 2004-2021 in Millions...

The textile industry is very important for Pakistan's economy. It is a very large employer and contributes nearly 10% of GDP.  Textile exports account for more than half of Pakistan's exports.  Unfortunately, the textile industry has stagnated in the last 12 years. Textile boom is good news for the country's economy. 

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[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan’s #Textile #Exports to Surge 40% in Current Fiscal Year as Orders Move From Rivals. Annual Pak Exports of $26 Billion Expected in Textiles Alone. #Bangladesh #China #India #Economy #Trade #Deficit #COVID19 #Pandemic https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-30/pakistan-s-texti...


Pakistan’s textile sector is bringing cheer to its flailing economy, with exports set to swell to a record after gaining an edge over South Asian rivals during the pandemic.

Textile exports are poised to surge 40% from a year earlier to a record $21 billion in the 12 months ending June, according to Abdul Razak Dawood, commerce adviser to Pakistan’s prime minister. Dawood predicted that figure would expand to $26 billion in the next fiscal year, surpassing the nation’s total exports last year, he said.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan creating #export miracles under #imrankhanPTI. #Pakistan`s monthly exports soared by 51.23% in Feb 2022 compared to February 2021. Pakistan`s #exports witnessed an increase of 32.77% during the first 8 months of the current fiscal year from the same period last year.
http://en.ce.cn/Insight/202203/19/t20220319_37417208.shtml


Editor's note: Cheng Xizhong, Visiting Professor at Southwest University of Political Science and Law，Special Commentator of China Economic Net, former Defense Attache in South Asian countries. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of Gwadar Pro.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's series of policies to encourage exports are now producing great achievements. Over the past year, despite the severe pandemic and the downturn of the world economy, Pakistan's exports of various commodities and services have increased significantly, which reflects the wise and correct decision-making of the Imran Khan administration.

According to the latest report of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan`s exports witnessed an increase of 32.77% during the first eight months of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.

Among various export commodities and services, textile exports rose sharply by 26.08% during the first eight months of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period of the last fiscal year. The exports of information technology (IT) services shot up by 32.63% during the first seven months of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period of the last fiscal year, earning $1,486.89 million.

It was another miracle that last month, Pakistan`s exports soared by 51.23% as compared to February 2021.

In my point of view, in addition to the export stimulus policies, these amazing achievements are closely related to the Imran Khan administration's correct macroscopic equilibrium between pandemic prevention and control and economic development, export-oriented industry development, and continuous successful expansion of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Special Economic Zones (SEZs).

I have noted that in terms of specific measures, the Pakistani government has launched drastic reforms with the Asaan Karobar Programme as a historic and nationwide reform drive to improve the ease of doing business in Pakistan. In recent years, three rounds of reforms have been successively introduced. Around 167 reform measures have been taken up with federal and provincial departments, of which 115 reform measures have already been implemented involving 75 departments, benefitting more than 30 business sectors.

In order to constantly improve the business environment for expanding imports, the Pakistani Ministry of Commerce launched an online portal aimed at identifying and then removing regulatory obstacles and problems through active involvement of private sectors and business associations. The State Bank of Pakistan, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, and Federal Board of Revenue all coordinated their efforts in ensuring a business-friendly environment in the country.

I believe that the sustained and substantial increase in exports will enhance Pakistan's financial capacity for further promoting industrialization and modernization and improving people's livelihood.

[Riaz Haq]

Samiullah Tariq
@samigodil
We should remember that the inflation and the PKR depreciation we are witnessing today is due to stagnant to declining exports during past decade. This has changed now. But the huge imbalance which was created over the decade would take some time to fade away

https://twitter.com/samigodil/status/1506854609783980033?s=20&t...

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Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
#Pakistan's #exports grew 26.2% in first 8 months (July 21-Feb 22) of current fiscal year! #ImranKhan #PTI #economy

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1507009529845747723?s=20&...

[Riaz Haq]

Arab News Pakistan
@arabnewspk
#OPINION: Over the last three years, #Pakistan’s savings rate has improved from a low of 5.4 percent to 19.9 percent since 2020-- all helped by a robust growth in remittances and a deepening financial system, writes
@javedhassan

https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2049801


Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
·
57m
Nearly 4X increase in #Pakistan’s #savings rate in past 3 years is very welcome news for the country’s #economic growth! Savings are extremely important for increased #investment to spur #gdp growth in any country, including Pakistan.

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1507052389856993308?s=20&...

Over the last two decades, Pakistan has not only experienced a chronically low gross domestic savings rate but has also seen the savings rate decline until recently. According to data from the World Bank, the gross domestic saving rates fell from 16.4 percent in 2000 to just 5.4 percent in 2019. Pakistan’s savings rate compares unfavorably with East Asian countries and South Asian peers. Bangladesh and India have seen their savings rates increase over the same period, which in 2019 stood at 25 percent and 28.2 percent respectively.

Several studies show the relationship between the savings rate and economic growth, especially in developing countries. Economist Robert Solow first argued that larger savings result in higher investments and increased production (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1956). Other economists such as McKinnon (Money and capital in economic development, 1973) and Shaw (Financial deepening in economic development, 1973) further emphasized the causative relationship between savings and economic development. Empirical evidence shows that as income increases with higher economic growth, it tends to also boost capital accumulation. Such favorable conditions help create a virtuous cycle of further investment and accelerating economic growth.
However, it is not always easy to identify the determinants of a society’s savings propensity. The collective spending behavior of households and public and private entities is subject to several interdependent social and economic factors. Literature suggests that a major factor of savings rates is the level of financial deepening in a society, that is, inter alia, the percentage of the population holding bank accounts, the development of financial markets and the diversity in financial instruments available.

Other factors influencing the savings propensity include culture, religion, and demographic factors such as the labour force participation rate and dependency ratio. Pakistan’s high fertility rate and burgeoning dependent youth population does not encourage household savings. The interplay of disparate factors is not always obvious, and yet often converge to affect the direction of the national savings rate. There is a consensus that people with high levels of income have a greater propensity to save and vice versa. However, for this to be sustainable, the growth should be through productivity gains and not consumption driven that is fuelled by external borrowings. If higher incomes do not result in investments in productive capacity, then the long-term savings rate is unlikely to improve and may even decline.

That has been the case with Pakistan where the economy expanded despite relatively low and declining domestic savings rates between 2000 and 2019. Such a growth model was unsustainable because the savings-investment gap was filled by foreign funding, primarily in the form of borrowings. More perversely, the economic growth was largely consumption-driven and masked the structural issue of low savings rate. It has led the country closer than ever to a foreign debt trap where the bulk of new external funding is not deployed in productive capacity but rather to service old foreign debts.

[Riaz Haq]

#German Deutsche Bank: “Pakistan will be in good shape” longer term, partly on rising exports, and that many multinational firms are bullish on the country and a few rank Pakistan among their top five destinations" #Pakistan #economy #imrankhanPTI #FDI https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-24/deutsche-bank-sa...

Pakistan’s currency could be weakened as the surge in energy and commodities prices deepens the nation’s current account deficit, according to Deutsche Bank AG’s country head, referring to the broadest measure of trade.

“That’s a key concern for the economy and for the business community,” the bank’s chief country officer, Syed Kamran Zaidi, said in an interview. “That is obviously something which the banks are also cautious about.”

The South Asian nation, which imports most of its fuel needs, saw its energy bill rise to $13 billion in the first eight months of the year that started in July, more than double the same period of the last fiscal, according to government data. Costs could increase further as oil prices have since surged above $100 a barrel amid supply concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A weaker rupee may be among the factors that pressure the central bank to raise borrowing costs, he added, estimating the benchmark target rate to increase between 50 and 100 basis points in the next few meetings, after being left unchanged for the previous two.


“The market has already incorporated this change as can be seen by secondary market yields of Treasury Bills and Pakistan Investment Bonds” that reflect short- and long-tenor instruments, said Zaidi.

Pakistan’s short-term bond yields have increased by at least 150 basis points in the past month, according to central bank data. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s rupee slipped for a seventh day to a record low 181.73 per dollar on Tuesday. Zaidi declined to share a forecast for the rupee.

The current account last month was a $545 million deficit, narrower than the $2.5 billion record shortfall in January, but still more than 16-times larger than the same month last year, according to central bank data.

The Frankfurt-based firm, which has been in Pakistan for 60 years, has described itself as one of the largest custodian businesses in the country and facilitates more than 40% of onshore institutional investment flows. It only offers corporate and not consumer banking in Pakistan. It has also launched a new foreign exchange trading platform for corporate clients in Pakistan.

Zaidi added that “Pakistan will be in good shape” longer term, partly on rising exports, and that many multinational firms are bullish on the country and a few rank Pakistan among their top five destinations. At least two of those companies are planning new factories in Pakistan, he said, declining to provide details as the information is private.

[Riaz Haq]

Global container shipping operator Maersk strengthens its commitment in #Pakistan: Registers 33% growth in #exports out of Pak in the Q1 of 2022. Growth is across all types of exporters, both large & small. #trade #economy #PTI #ImranKhan @PTIofficial https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/maersk-strengthens-its-commitm...

A.P. Moller – Maersk’s (Maersk) strong commitment towards Pakistani exporters is yielding solid results, as indicated by the growth in exports registered by Maersk in the first quarter of 2022. After a slump in exports in 2021 due to the various challenges arising from the global pandemic, the local exporters have shipped almost 33% more containers out of the country between January and March this year on Maersk vessels compared to the same period last year. Maersk’s efforts to ensure access to empty containers and space on vessels have made a real difference in the last quarter.

One of the biggest challenges our customers faced was the availability of containers and space on vessels. We understood their requirements and priorities through constant dialogue with our customers and could forecast the demand and supply equation more accurately in the current volatile market condition. This has helped us plan the movement of our containers effectively, thus making empty equipment available for the exporters to ship their cargo out to the global market.

Hasan Faraz, Managing Director, Maersk Pakistan

The growth in exports has been across all types of exporters – the ones who have long-term contracts with Maersk, the ones who are booking their shipments in the short term, and the small & medium enterprises (SMEs) who are utilising Maersk’s digital platforms such as Twill. Maersk Spot and Twill booking platforms have seen a whopping growth of 57% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 2021.
Through solutions such as Spot and Twill, we create a customer experience wherein the exporters can request quotes, book their shipment, get instant confirmations and track their cargo through easy-to-use mobile applications and platforms. Twill has truly been a game-changer for SMEs who don’t have the expertise in managing complex supply chains. We have teams hand-holding our customers throughout the process to simplify it so that our customers can focus on their core business.

Wajeeh Ahmed, Head of Sales, Maersk Pakistan

Maersk Pakistan has been working hard on ensuring that the Pakistani exporters get better access to containers, vessel space, and digital platforms and creating solutions through the various stages of their cargo’s journey. With the creation of dedicated warehousing and distribution solutions for customers in the retail and pharmaceutical sectors, innovative cold chain logistics solutions for the meat and vegetable industry, and the offering of visibility and tracking solutions such as TradeLens, Maersk Pakistan is heavily investing in simplifying and connecting the complex supply chains for its customers.
Source: A.P. Moller – Maersk

[Riaz Haq]

All Pakistan Textile Mills Association
@APTMAofficial
·
1h
Last entire year exports remained at $15.4Bn - now have reached $16Bn in 10MFY22, highest in comparison with past records. Whereas, sector still has 2 more months to perform till completion of FY22. With present momentum, InSha'Allah we can achieve our target of $20Bn this year.


https://twitter.com/APTMAofficial/status/1523657222395289600?s=20&a...

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan LSM (large scale manufacturing) sector grows 10.4% in Jul 2021-Mar 2022


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2356514/lsm-sector-grows-104-in-jul-mar


The economic advisory wing of the finance ministry (now under PMLN), which till March (under PTI) had been predicting around 5% overall growth rate, has suddenly cut the forecast to 4% in its latest publication.

Contrary to that, the Planning Commission expects the growth rate in the range of 5% to 5.4%, which will be higher than the last PTI government’s target for the current fiscal year.

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Big industries grew 10.4% during the first nine months of current fiscal year on the back of a low base effect and better output in sugar and apparel sectors, increasing prospects of achieving around 5% overall economic growth in this fiscal year.

Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) industries recorded 10.4% growth during July-March of the ongoing fiscal year over the same period a year ago, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Friday.

PBS data suggested that the increase largely came from the food sector, which has over one-tenth weight in the LSM index and apparel wear, which has 6.1% weight.

The other factor that contributed to the healthy momentum was the low base, as the index was at 126 in March last year, which jumped to nearly 154 this year.

The past year’s trend suggests that the LSM will post higher growth in April and May as well due to the low base effect.

The 10.4% growth during the first nine months of current fiscal year has strengthened the chances of achieving around 5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in this fiscal year ending in June.

The increase in sugarcane and sugar production will offset the 1.5 million tons’ decline in wheat production.

The economic advisory wing of the finance ministry, which till March had been predicting around 5% overall growth rate, has suddenly cut the forecast to 4% in its latest publication.

Contrary to that, the Planning Commission expects the growth rate in the range of 5% to 5.4%, which will be higher than the last PTI government’s target for the current fiscal year.

The National Accounts Committee – the body that works out the growth estimates on the basis of input from the provincial and federal government departments – will meet by the mid of next week to approve the provisional growth rate for fiscal year 2021-22.

The new government has decided to revive the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, which may also result in fiscal and monetary tightening to bring economic stability. This could hurt growth prospects for fiscal year 2022-23.

The previous government had targeted 4.8% economic growth for the current fiscal year. The IMF and other financial institutions have projected Pakistan’s economic growth in the range of 4% to 4.3%, which is a decent rate but nearly half of what is required to create jobs for all new entrants in the market.

The central bank has injected hundreds of billions of rupees into the economy, which provided a fresh impetus to the economic growth but fueled inflation in the country.

The LSM data is collected from three different sources. Data collected by the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) showed that the output of 36 items increased on an average by 2% in the first nine months of current fiscal year.

The Ministry of Industries, which monitors 11 products, reported a 10.3% increase in output during the July-March period. Provincial Bureaus of Statistics reported 12.1% growth in the output of 76 goods, stated the PBS.

On a yearly basis, the LSM sector showed 26.6% growth in March over the same month of last year. However, half of the increase in March output was because of increased production of sugar by the mills.

The industries that posted growth in the first nine months of current fiscal year included textile, which registered 3.2% growth.

The textile industry is the largest sector in the LSM index, having 18.2% weight. The production of apparel wear increased 34% during the first nine months of FY22.

[Riaz Haq]

APTMA Chairman dubs PTI’s ousting as cruel - Global Village Space

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/aptma-chairman-dubs-ptis-ousting...

Separately he (Hamid Zaman) added that the policies introduced by financial institutions during the tenure of the PTI-led government provided a very enabling environment for the businesses. It is pertinent to mention that last year $5 billion of expansion was made in the textile sector.

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Textile Machinery Imports in Pakistan in 2021 – The Textile Think Tank

https://thetextilethinktank.org/textile-machinery-imports-in-pakist...

Textile Machinery Imports in Pakistan in 2021
Dr. Tanveer Hussain January 21, 2022
Textile machinery imports in Pakistan increased from around US$435 Million in 2020 to US$792 Million in 2021. This reflects around 82% increase from the previous year. This indicates capacity expansion as well as technology upgradation in the Pakistan Textile Industry.

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Top 10 Denim Fabric Exporters in the World in 2019 – The Textile Think Tank

https://thetextilethinktank.org/top-10-denim-fabric-exporters-in-th...

Top 10 denim fabric exporters in the world are: China, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Hong Kong, USA, Italy, Egypt, Japan and Mexico. Pakistan in the second largest exporter of denim fabrics in the world, followed by China. Pakistan’s denim fabric exports were worth US$587 million in 2019. Pakistan could have earned three times more 

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan posts highest monthly textile exports of $1.74bn in April

https://mettisglobal.news/pakistan-posts-highest-monthly-textile-ex...

May 16, 2022 (MLN): The country has witnessed the highest ever monthly exports of $1.739 bn during April 2022, up by 31% YoY and 7% MoM, the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed.

During the ten months (July-April) of the current fiscal year, textile exports posted a growth of 26% YoY to $15.98bn when compared to $12.69 recorded in 10MFY21.

The year-on-year increase in exports is due to strong demand in the West before the summer season, while other factors include the resumption of economic activity, which has led to a shortage of various retail brands, competitive utilities and borrowing rates.  

In the value-added segment, knitwear, readymade garments, bed-wear, and towels registered an upsurge of 44%, 44%, 16%, and 28%, YoY to $488mn, $351mn, $279mn and $108mn during April 2022 compared to the same month last year.  

Meanwhile, the country exported food commodities worth $524mn during April 2022, registering a jump of 35.7% YoY or 2.2% MoM.

Commodity-wise, rice remained the primary source of foreign exchange earnings during the review period as its exports were valued at $259.6mn, up by 37% YoY. While the export of fish & fish preparations declined by 16.4% YoY to stand at $40mn.

The export value of meat and meat preparations clocked in at $35.6mn, up by 10.3% YoY.

In April 2022, the export of petroleum products posted a growth of 53.6% to $45.2mn. It was mainly led by exports of petroleum crude, standing at $38.5mn, depicting a growth of 81% YoY.

Going into details made available by PBS, the other manufactures group observed a 23.8% YoY increase during the period to $366mn. Under this group, the trade value of sports goods stood at $36mn, up by 21.5% YoY.  The country earned $51.54mn through the export of leather manufactures, marking a growth of 26% YoY.

The exports of chemical and pharmaceutical products witnessed an increase of 42.7% to value at $153mn during April 2022. The major chunk of exports under the chemical and pharma group during the said period was mainly from the other chemicals and plastic materials which clocked in at $92.7mn and $35.4mn, showing significant growth of 35.6% YoY and 83% YoY.

“Textile exports growth is likely to remain strong in the upcoming months due to continued rerouting of orders out of China. Also, the surge in freight charges on shipments of unfinished products to competitors like Bangladesh is likely to fare well for Pakistan, as various brands have started routing orders to Pakistani exporters in order to arrest thinning margins,” Abdul Ghani Mianoor at Intermarket Securities said.

According to channel checks, demand for value-added products is likely to remain intact, as orders have been booked for at least the next 3mths, while procurement of cotton at lower than prevailing rates is likely to result in sustained strong margins for the remainder of FY22. However, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine issue has led to a surge in global inflation, which if prolonged, may potentially lead to a moderate slowdown in export growth, he added.