More Pakistanis Migrating to Non-English Speaking Rich Industrialized Nations

[Riaz Haq]

Migration data for 2016 released by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the club of rich industrialized nations of Europe, North America and East Asia, shows that a growing number of Pakistanis are migrating to its non-English Speaking member countries. Traditionally, most Pakistanis migrating to rich industrialized nations have preferred to go to English-Speaking nations. The biggest factor driving such migrations appears to be the growing labor shortages caused by aging populations and declining birth rates in OECD member nations.

Migration to Non-English Speaking OECD Nations:

Among the biggest non-English Speaking OECD destinations in 2016 for Pakistani migrants are Italy (14,735)  , Germany (12,215), Spain (6,461), South Korea (2,724), Japan (1,486), France (1,350) and Sweden (1.211). 

Pakistani Migration to Non-English Speaking OECD Nations in 2016. S...

Among English Speaking OECD nations, the top destination for Pakistani migrants continues to be the United States (19,313) followed by Canada (11,335), United Kingdom (11,000) and Australia (6,958). 

Pakistanis in Italy. Source: Italian Government

OECD Migration Report 2018: 

 

Over 95,000 Pakistanis migrated to and another 50,000 acquired citizenship of the rich industrialized nations of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2016, according to International Migration Outlook 2018 released by the Organization.

Nearly 50,000 Pakistani immigrants became citizens of the rich industrialized countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2016, according to International Migration Outlook 2018 recently published by the Organization.

Source: International Migration Outlook 2018

India topped the list with 130,000 Indians acquiring citizenship of OECD nations in 2016, followed by Mexico (112,000) ranked 2nd, the Philippines (94,000) ranked 3rd, Morocco (94,000) ranked 4th, China (78,000) ranked 5th, Albania (52,000) ranked 6th and Pakistan (50,000) ranked 7th.

In addition, Pakistan was the 18th largest source of immigrants with 95,000 Pakistanis migrating to OECD nations in 2016. India is 4th on this list with 271,000 Indians migrating to OECD countries.

Source: International Migration Outlook 2018

Humanitarian migration of refugees, rather than migration for better economic prospects, dominated OECD inflows during 2015. War-torn Syria was the second largest source with 430,000 migrants in 2015, the report said.

Online Labor Market:

The Internet has enabled online labor markets where freelancers sell their services globally. Pakistan (8.5%) ranks 4th in the world for online labor after India (24%), Bangladesh (16%) and the United States (12%), according to Online Labor Index. This Index is based on data collected from four of the largest online labour platforms, also known as online freelancing or online outsourcing platforms: Fiverr, Freelancer, Guru, and PeoplePerHour. Most of the customer base for online platforms is located in OECD nations.

Online Labor. Source: International Labor Organization

Pew Research Data: 

India is the world's largest exporter of labor with 15.8 million Indians working in other countries. Bangladesh ranks 5th with 7.2 million Bangladeshis working overseas while Pakistan ranks 6th with 5.9 million Pakistanis working overseas, according to Pew Research report released ahead of International Migrants Day observance on Sunday, December 18, 2016.

International Migration: 

Countries of Origin of Migrants to the United States Source: Pew Re...

Pew Research reports that nearly 3.5 million Indians lived in the UAE, the world’s second-largest migration corridor in 2015. While most of the migration is from low and middle income countries to high-income countries, the top 20 list of migrants' origins also includes rich countries like the United States (ranked 20), United Kingdom (11), Germany (14), Italy (21) and South Korea (25).

Top 25 Sources of Migrants:

Here is the list of top 20 countries of origin for international migrants:


1. India 15.9 million

2. Mexico 12.3 million

3. Russia 10.6 million

4. China 9.5 million

5. Bangladesh 7.2 million

6. Pakistan 5.9 million

7. Ukraine 5.83 million

8.  Philippines 5.32 million

9.  Syria 5.01 million

10. Afghanistan 4.84 million

11. United Kingdom 4.92 million

12. Poland 4.45 million

13. Kazakstan 4.08 million

14. Germany 4.0 million

15. Indonesia 3.88 million

16. Palestine 3.55 million

17. Romania 3.41 million

18. Egypt 3.27 million

19. Turkey 3.11 million

20. United States 3.02 million

21. Italy 2.9 million

22. Burma (Myanmar) 2.88 million

23. Colombia 2.64 million

24. Vietnam 2.56 million

25. South Korea 2.35 million

Declining Labor Pool in Developed Economies: 

The world population is aging with slowing labor force growth. It is particularly true of the more developed nations with aging populations and declining birth rates.  In an recent report titled "Asian Economic Integration Report", the Asian Development argued that migration within Asia can help deal with regional labor imbalances. It said as follows:

"In Asia and the Pacific, many economies could expand their role as the source or host economy for migrant workers.

Labor supply is still growing in developing economies—such as Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Myanmar, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines—and they could export labor across the region. In contrast, developed but aging economies such as Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Japan; and Singapore are unable to meet labor demand with their dwindling workforce.

Hence, these economies would benefit from immigrant labor. Kang and Magoncia (2016) further discuss the potential for migration to reallocate labor from surplus to deficit economies and offer a glimpse of how the demographic shift will frame Asia’s future population structure, particularly the future working age population. Among the issues explored is the magnitude of labor force surpluses and deficits within different economies in Asia."

Pakistan's Growing Labor Force:

Pakistan has the world’s sixth largest population, sixth largest diaspora and the ninth largest labor force with growing human capital. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.



With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan is well-positioned to reap what is often described as "demographic dividend", with its workforce growing at a faster rate than total population. This trend is estimated to accelerate over several decades. Contrary to the oft-repeated talk of doom and gloom, average Pakistanis are now taking education more seriously than ever. Youth literacy is about 70% and growing, and young people are spending more time in schools and colleges to graduate at higher rates than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Vocational training is also getting increased focus since 2006 under National Vocational Training Commission (NAVTEC) with help from Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.



Pakistan's work force is over 60 million strong, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. With increasing female participation, the country's labor pool is rising at a rate of 3.5% a year, according to International Labor Organization.

With rising urban middle class, there is substantial and growing demand in Pakistan from students, parents and employers for private quality higher education along with a willingness and capacity to pay relatively high tuition and fees, according to the findings of Austrade, an Australian government agency promoting trade. Private institutions are seeking affiliations with universities abroad to ensure they offer information and training that is of international standards.


Trans-national education (TNE) is a growing market in Pakistan and recent data shows evidence of over 40 such programs running successfully in affiliation with British universities at undergraduate and graduate level, according to The British Council. Overall, the UK takes about 65 per cent of the TNE market in Pakistan.

It is extremely important for Pakistan's public policy makers and the nation's private sector to fully appreciate the expected demographic dividend as a great opportunity. The best way for them to demonstrate it is to push a pro-youth agenda of education, skills development, health and fitness to take full advantage of this tremendous opportunity. Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity that could be extremely costly for Pakistan and the rest of the world.

Growth Forecast 2014-2050. Source: EIU

In the high fertility countries of Africa and Asia family sizes are continuing to decline. And in low fertility countries family sizes will continue to remain below replacement levels. Why? Because the same juggernaut forces are operating: increasing urbanization, smaller and costly housing, expanding higher education and career opportunities for women, high financial costs and time pressures for childrearing and changing attitudes and life styles.

Source: BBC

Countries With Declining Populations:

115 countries, including China (1.55), Hong Kong (1.17),  Taiwan (1.11) and Singapore (0.8) are well below the replacement level of 2.1 TFR.  Their populations will sharply decline in later part of the 21st century.

 United States is currently at 2.01 TFR, slightly below the replacement rate.  "We don't take a stance one way or the other on whether it's good or bad," said Mark Mather, demographer with the Population Reference Bureau. Small year-to-year changes like those experienced by the United States don't make much difference, he noted. But a sharp or sustained drop over a decade or more "will certainly have long-term consequences for society," he told Utah-based Desert News National.

Japan (1.4 TFR) and Russia (1.6 TFR) are experiencing among the sharpest population declines in the world. One manifestation in Japan is the data on diaper sales: Unicharm Corp., a major diaper maker, has seen sales of adult diapers outpace infant diapers since 2013, according to New York Times.

Median Age Map: Africa in teens, Pakistan in 20s, China, South America and US in 30s, Europe, Canada and Japan in 40s.

The Russian population grew from about 100 million in 1950 to almost149 million by the early 1990s. Since then, the Russian population has declined, and official reports put it at around 144 million, according to Yale Global Online.

Reversing Trends:

Countries, most recently China, are finding that it is far more difficult to raise low fertility than it is reduce high fertility. The countries in the European Union are offering a variety of incentives, including birth starter kits to assist new parents in Finland, cheap childcare centers and liberal parental leave in France and a year of paid maternity leave in Germany, according to Desert News. But the fertility rates in these countries remain below replacement levels.

Summary:

Overzealous Pakistani birth control advocates need to understand what countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are now seeing: Low birth rates lead to diminished economic growth. "Fewer kids mean fewer tax-paying workers to support public pension programs. An "older society", noted the late Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker, is "less dynamic, creative and entrepreneurial." Growing labor force n Pakistan can not only contribute to Pakistan's prosperity but also help alleviate the effects of aging populations and declining labor pools in more developed economies. I believe that Pakistan's growing population and young demographics should be seen as a blessing, not a curse.

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Pakistan's Expected Demographic Dividend

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[Riaz Haq]

The changing geography of remittance inflows

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2312688/the-changing-geography-of-remi...

The performance of these traditional sources of remittances mostly located in the Persian Gulf and North America ( Saudi Arabia, UAE, US, UK) pales in comparison with the growth in remittances from the younger communities sprouting in Europe and Asia Pacific. Remittances from EU countries (excluding the UK) increased by a spectacular 663.7% during the 2010-11 to 2020-21 period. Inflows from Germany and the Netherlands grew threefold, while those from Sweden grew fivefold. Growth was even higher for the three Latin countries, Spain (651%), France (957%) and Italy (1,128%). The best growth rate was achieved for Greece and Belgium, from where remittances grew 23 and 72 times, respectively. The growing diaspora in Australia and Japan too appears to send significantly more, with remittances from the two countries growing five and ninefold in the past 10 years, respectively.

In the preceding two decades, thousands of Pakistanis went to work in Europe, mainly to Southern European countries. Many of them were initially irregular workers who have since become legal residents, and can now use formal means of transferring money to their families back home. The Pakistani community in several countries in northern Europe and Australia has by contrast grown chiefly through emigration and settling down of university graduates.

As a result of these growth differentials, fast-growing remittances from Pakistani communities based in Europe and the Far East have gained importance overtime at the cost of slow-growing flows from the US. While transfers from the six Gulf states have maintained their lion’s share of Pakistan’s remittances of about 58%, those from the EU have grown threefold, from 3.1% in FY11 to 9.2% in FY21. Similarly, the relative share of remittances from Australia and Japan, which used to be negligible until recently, has collectively grown threefold in the past 10 years. Thanks to these changes in regional distribution, Europe has now become Pakistan’s second major sending region after the Persian Gulf, replacing North America, while the hitherto insignificant community in Asia Pacific is gradually coming into its own. Although Pakistan’s heavy reliance on the GCC states for its remittances has not yet waned, the increasing number of countries where Pakistani communities are getting settled and beginning to send significant amounts of money augurs well for the stability and durability of the country’s remittances.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistani Population in Europe
Pakistan has the 6th largest diaspora in the world, with 8-10 million people living or settled outside Pakistan. As per the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and HRD report 2017, an estimated 8.8 million Pakistanis live abroad or outside Pakistan.

According to the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development, approximately 2 million Pakistanis live in Europe according to December 2017 estimates, with the vast majority, over 1.5 million, residing in the United Kingdom. Italy, Germany, Spain, and France are other countries in Europe with sizeable Pakistani populations.

As per the estimates, the Pakistani Population in European Union in 2022 is 0.5 million.

Source: Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and HRD report 2017


https://www.findeasy.in/pakistani-population-in-european-union/

# EU Country Overseas Pakistani population
1 Germany 124,000
2 Italy 122,884
3 France 104,000
4 Spain 91,632
5 Norway 39,257
6 Greece 34,177
7 Denmark 25,661
8 Sweden 24,631
9 Netherlands 23,855
10 Belgium 19,247

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistanis in EU

https://www.findeasy.in/pakistani-population-in-european-union/

Pakistanis in Germany
Pakistani Diaspora in Germany also referred to as Pakistani Germans are estimated at 124,000 (1.25 lakh). The number is based on the Dec. 2017 report on Overseas Pakistani by the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development.

Almost a third of all Pakistanis in Germany live in Hesse. There are approximately 1900 Pakistanis living in the northern city-state of Hamburg, about 1500 in Frankfurt am Main and almost 1400 in Berlin and its suburbs. Many young Pakistanis have come to Germany recently as students of science and technology in prestigious universities.

Pakistanis in Italy
Pakistani Diaspora in Italy is estimated at 122,884 (1.25 lakh). The number is based on the Dec. 2017 report on Overseas Pakistani by the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development.

Most of the workers are of Punjabi background and account for 72 percent share of migrants in 2016 and 76 percent in 2017. According to the Italian ambassador to Pakistan, Andreas Ferrarese, as of February 2021, there are around 200,000 Pakistanis in Italy, of the 140,000 are documented.

Pakistanis in France
Pakistani Diaspora in France is estimated at 104,000 (1.04 lakh). The number is based on the Dec. 2017 report on Overseas Pakistani by the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development.

There is a population of Pakistanis in France, primarily of Punjabi origin from Punjab and Azad Kashmir. Large-scale Pakistani migration to France began in the 1970s; they clustered around the Rue du Faubourg-Saint-Denis in the 10th arrondissement of Paris, where many set up grocery stores and restaurants.



According to the latest official statistics published by the French government, there were 24,305 Pakistani-born people living in the country in the year 2015, also there were 19,646 Pakistani nationals living in France in 2015

Pakistanis in Spain
Pakistani Diaspora in Spain is estimated at 34,177. The number is based on the Dec. 2017 report on Overseas Pakistani by the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development.

Spain has a population of approximately 46.5 million, of which 9.5% are foreigners. Pakistanis are 1.2% of all foreigners and barely 0.1% of the population in Spain and more than half of all Pakistanis in Spain are in Barcelona.

Pakistanis in Norway
Pakistani Diaspora in Norway is estimated at 39,257. The number is based on the Dec. 2017 report on Overseas Pakistani by the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development.

Around half of the Pakistani population in Norway are Punjabis and 65.23% of Pakistanis in Norway live in the capital Oslo. The earliest Pakistani migrants came to Norway in the 1960s and 1970s as migrant workers, a large portion from Punjab.



Pakistanis in Greece
Pakistani Diaspora in Greece is estimated at 39,257. The number is based on the Dec. 2017 report on Overseas Pakistani by the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development.

According to official figures, some 700,000 legal immigrants make up 6.5 percent of Greece’s population. The size of the Pakistani community, one of the largest, is estimated to be about 80,000-strong; only 30,000 of them are in Greece legally.



Pakistanis in Denmark
Pakistani Diaspora in Denmark is estimated at 25,661. The number is based on the Dec. 2017 report on Overseas Pakistani by the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development.

The earliest Pakistani migrants came to Denmark in the 1960s and 1970s as migrant workers, a large portion from Punjab. Danish Pakistanis form the country’s fifth-largest community of migrants and descendants from a non-Western country, with 14,379 migrants and 11,282 locally born people of Pakistani descent as of 1 January 2019 according to the latest figures published by the government of Denmark.

[Riaz Haq]

The Japanese Ambassador to Pakistan Kuninori Matsuda told journalists last Friday that Japan would add Pakistan to the list of nine other world countries eligible to apply for Japan employment visas.

While the employment scheme was initially announced for 9 countries – Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mongolia, Nepal, the Philippines, Cambodia, and China – Pakistan may soon become the 10 country part of the list.

According to Ambassador Matsuda, Japan is about to open the working visas for skilled workers from Pakistan, in a bid to tackle the aging and shrinking population of the country.

https://visaguide.world/news/japan/japan-to-offer-work-visas-to-ski...

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Japan will make it easier to bring in talented foreign workers to regions outside the metropolitan areas by offering a fast-track path to permanent residency.

The government will revise a point system that grades individuals based on annual income, educational backgrounds and job experience. Those with high scores receive preferential treatment.

Now the government will add points for working at companies promoted by local communities. The government had rolled out the program on a trial basis in Hiroshima Prefecture and Kitakyushu and will now expand it nationwide.

The aim is to attract such specialists as researchers, engineers and business managers. Many companies in rural areas are facing a need for transformation in response to digitalization and decarbonization. In Hiroshima Prefecture, for example, semiconductor developers are trying to invite engineers.

An applicant whose point total reaches 70 will qualify for "highly specialized profession" status, and the period of stay in Japan required to obtain permanent residence will be shortened to three years from 10. At 80 points, only one year will be required. Parents and domestic servants will be allowed to come along, and spouses will be permitted to work.

Working in a local company will be worth 10 points and treated the same as having annual income of 10 million yen or more as a manager.

The number of workers certified as highly specialized reached 31,451 at the end of 2021. The number continue to rise despite the pandemic. By nationality, Chinese accounted for approximately 70% as of the end of 2020, followed by Indians at 6% and Americans at 5%.

Currently, daily arrivals are capped at 20,000 in response to COVID-19. The government is trying to lay the groundwork for stepped-up recruitment of foreign nationals in a post-coronavirus era.

It will also try to find smaller local companies seeking foreign talent with the help of the Japan External Trade Organization. In fiscal 2021, JETRO helped companies hire 180 people.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-immigration/Japan-s-small-c...

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s earnings from Italy in exports and remittances crossed $2 billion in Financial Year 2021-2022. In addition a substantial growth in FDI from Italy was also witnessed during the record breaking year.

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/07/20/earnings-from-italy-...

Italy became the seventh billion dollar export country for Pakistan during the year with a record growth of export volume to $1,146 million, while the remittances from Italy were also on the path to touch billion dollars soon with a total of $857 million during the year.
June 2022 also set the record for highest export volume ever to Italy in a single month crossing $144 million.
Italy posted the highest growth both in workers remittances among all countries with high numbers of Pakistani diaspora and for exports among the top ten export destinations.
This phenomenal growth in exports and remittances has come at a time when European economies in general and Italian economy in particular is slowing down and facing multiple challenges due to Ukraine war.
The exports to Italy of $1.15 billion in FY 2021-22 are 46% higher than the previous year, while the remittances are 41% higher for the same period than the last year.
While talking to media, Pakistan`s Ambassador to Italy, Jauhar Saleem paid glowing tributes to the Pakistani exporters for their initiative and hard work and to the Pakistani diaspora in Italy for standing by the country in a most challenging economic environment. He also shared that Pakistan had posted a record trade surplus of $573 million during the financial year 2021-22 which is 91% higher than the previous year.
According to the envoy, the value added sectors were the main drivers of the exceptional export growth with exports of plastic products increasing by 208%, sports goods 80%, leather 42%, home textiles 36% and garments 35%. The ambassador also shared that even as the pandemic hit global footwear market witnessed a contraction of shrank demand during the year, Pakistan’s exports of footwear to Italy increased by 19% in the year and Italy has become the 3rd largest export destination for Pakistani footwear. Italy is also the 5th largest destination for Pakistani home textiles and ranks No.6 in garments exports.
Ambassador Saleem also informed that that with the revival of market activities after removal of pandemic related restrictions in Italy, the Pakistan Embassy in Italy was further pacing up its activities to connect Pakistani businesses with Italian firms to sustain the exports and FDI growth. During the just concluded financial year, Pakistan received Italian investment in the sectors of food processing, chemicals, construction, leather, footwear, energy related equipment and IT.
The Ambassador also shared that some of the recent joint ventures between leading Pakistani and Italian footwear firms were enabling technology transfer, international marketing skills and supply chain management to Pakistani firms. Moreover, Italy was also providing technical support in agriculture sector especially related to olive and olive products. Similarly, Italy is supporting the efforts for reduction of risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) and hydrogeological hazards in mountainous areas by establishing an evidence-based assessment and monitoring system for glaciers in Gilgit Baltistan.
Ambassador Jauhar Saleem also informed the media that Italy has announced to allow 69,700 seasonal workers from selected countries in 2022 to come to Italy for work. Pakistan has already been included in the Italian Seasonal Work Visa Programme for 2022, which would offer many opportunities to our workers in agriculture and services sector to work in Italy. He added that Italian government has recently reduced the timelines for work visa processing which has been a long standing demand from Pakistani workers.

[Riaz Haq]

Germany is hoping to combat its shortage of skilled workers with a new ‘opportunity card’.

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/09/06/skilled-workers-are-in-d...

The ‘chancenkarte’ will use a points system to enable workers with required skills to come to Germany more easily.

It is part of a strategy proposed by Labour Minister Hubertus Heil to address the country’s labour shortages, which is due to be presented to the government this autumn.


Every year, quotas will be set depending on which industries need workers. Three out of four of the following criteria must also be met to apply for the scheme:

A degree or vocational training recognised by Germany
Three years’ professional experience
Language skills or a previous stay in Germany
Under 35 years old
Currently, most non-EU citizens need to have a job offer before they can relocate to Germany. A visa for job seekers already exists, but the 'chancenkarte' is expected to make it easier and faster for people looking to find work in Germany.

Citizens of certain countries with visa agreements can already enter Germany for 90 days visa-free but are only permitted to take up short-term employment.

The opportunity card will allow people to come and look for a job or apprenticeship while in the country rather than applying from abroad. Applicants must be able to prove they can afford to pay their living expenses in the mean time.

The exact details of the scheme are yet to be formalised.

Why does Germany need to attract skilled workers?
This year, the shortage of skilled workers in Germany has risen to an all time high. Earlier this year, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found 1.74 million vacant positions throughout the country.

In July, staff shortages affected almost half of all companies surveyed by Munich-based research institute IFO, forcing them to slow down their operations.

[Riaz Haq]

The UK has become one of the world’s most accepting places for foreign workers, according to a survey in 24 nations revealing a sharp increase in British acceptance of economic migration.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/23/uk-now-among-most-a...


Shortfall of 330,000 workers in UK due to Brexit, say thinktanks
Read more

People in the UK emerged as less likely to think that when jobs are scarce employers should give priority to people of their own country than those in Norway, Canada, France, Spain, the US, Australia and Japan. Only Germany and Sweden were more open on that question.

In what the study’s authors described as “an extraordinary shift”, only 29% of people in the UK in 2022 said priority over jobs should go to local people, compared with 65% when the same question was asked in 2009.

The findings come as employers call for more migration to help fill more than 1m vacancies, and after the prime minister appointed the anti-immigration firebrand Lee Anderson as deputy chair of the Conservative party. He has called people arriving in small boats on the south coast “criminals” and called for them to be “sent back the same day”. Police have been deployed to hotels where asylum seekers are being housed amid violent protests by anti-immigration activists.

“It was unthinkable a decade ago that the UK would top any international league table for positive views of immigration,” said Prof Bobby Duffy, the director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, who shared the findings from the latest round of the survey exclusively with the Guardian and the BBC. “But that’s where we are now, with the UK the least likely, from a wide range of countries, to say we should place strict limits on immigration or prohibit it entirely.”

The UK ranked fourth out of 24 nations for the belief that immigrants have a very or quite good impact on the development of the country – ahead of Norway, Spain, the US and Sweden.

One factor in the shift in opinions on the question of “British jobs for British workers” may be that in 2009 the UK was in a deep recession, with more than double today’s unemployment, whereas today the economy suffers from a worker shortage, with 1.1m vacancies in the UK, 300,000 more than before the pandemic.

Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, last year urged employers to look to the British workforce in the first instance and “get local people”, although the government has widened visa programmes for seasonal workers and care staff.

Duffy said the findings showed that “it’s time to listen more carefully to public attitudes”. He said: “Politicians often misread public opinion on immigration. In the 2000s, Labour government rhetoric and policy on this issue was more relaxed than public preferences, and arguably they paid the price – but the current government is falling into the reverse trap.”

People in the UK are now the least likely of the 24 countries that participate in the World Values Survey study to think immigration increases unemployment, and second from top in thinking that immigrants fill important job vacancies.

They are very likely to say immigration boosts cultural diversity, and very unlikely to think immigration comes with crime and safety risks. However, more people in the UK think immigration leads to “social conflict” than in several other countries, including Canada, Japan and China.

[Riaz Haq]

Why Americans Are Having Fewer Babies - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-americans-are-having-fewer-babies-...

The number of babies born in the U.S. started plummeting 15 years ago and hasn’t recovered since. What looked at first like a temporary lull triggered by the 2008 financial crisis has stretched into a prolonged fertility downturn. Provisional monthly figures show that there were about 3.66 million babies born in the U.S. last year, a decline of 15% since 2007, even though there are 9% more women in their prime childbearing years.

The decline has demographers puzzled and economists worried. America’s longstanding geopolitical advantages, they say, are underpinned by a robust pool of young people. Without them, the U.S. economy will be weighed down by a worsening shortage of workers who can fill jobs and pay into programs like Social Security that care for the elderly. At the heart of the falling birthrate is a central question: Do American women simply want fewer children? Or are life circumstances impeding them from having the children that they desire?


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To maintain current population levels, the total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies women have over their lifetime—must stay at a “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per woman. In 2021, the U.S. rate was 1.66. Had fertility rates stayed at their 2007 peak, the U.S. would now have 9.6 million more kids, according to Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.



Federal agencies are treating the slump like a temporary downturn. The Social Security Administration’s board of trustees projects that the total fertility rate will slowly climb to 2 by 2056 and hold there until the end of the century. Yet it’s been over a decade since fertility rates reached that level. Last year there were 2.8 workers for every Social Security recipient. That ratio is projected to shrink to 2.2 by 2045, roughly two-thirds what it was in 2000.



Some other developed countries are in a far deeper childbearing trough than the U.S. In South Korea, the total fertility rate hit a world record low of 0.84 in 2020 and has since sagged to 0.78. Italy’s rate slid to 1.24 last year. China’s population fell in 2022 for the first time in decades because its fertility rate has been far below the replacement rate for years. Its two-century reign as the world’s most populous country is expected to end this year when India overtakes it, if it hasn’t already.

In a recent note to clients, Neil Howe, a demographer at Hedgeye Risk Management, pointed to a World Bank report showing that the 2020s could be a second consecutive “lost decade” for global economic growth, in large part because of worsening demographics. By 2026 or 2027, he wrote, the growth rate of the working-age population in the entire high-income and emerging-market world will turn from slightly positive to slightly negative, reversing a durable driver of economic growth since the Industrial Revolution.



This shift will make the U.S. more dependent on immigration to supply enough workers to keep the economy humming. Immigrants accounted for 80% of U.S. population growth last year, census figures show, up from 35% just over a decade ago. Yet the number of young immigrant women coming to the U.S. has diminished, Johnson said, and the decline in fertility has been greatest among Hispanics.

Having fewer children has already changed the social fabric of the country’s schools, neighborhoods and churches. J.P. De Gance, president and founder of Communio, a nonprofit that helps churches encourage marriage, said that lower marriage and birth rates are one of the largest drivers of the decline in religious affiliation that’s left pews empty across the country. That matters for the whole community, De Gance said, because churches give lonely people a place to form friendships, as well as feeding hungry people and running schools that fill gaps in public education. “When that’s diminished, the entire culture’s diminished,” he said.

[Riaz Haq]

Indians and Pakistanis in Australia as per 2016 Census

Pakistanis

People 61,915

Male 37,720

Female 24,195

Australian citizen 42.3%

Not an Australian citizen 56.0%

https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/7106_0


Indians

People 455,388
Male 245,416
Female 209,972
Australian citizen 48.1%
Not an Australian citizen 50.8%

https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/7103_0

[Riaz Haq]

Improving language supports could increase stay rate of international students in Germany


https://monitor.icef.com/2022/03/improving-language-supports-could-...


More than a quarter of surveyed students said that language difficulties had been challenging for them, and nearly as many said they had experienced challenges in meeting new friends and in finding accommodation. Feeling socially isolated may be especially pronounced among Indonesian, South Korean, Taiwanese, Pakistani, and Chinese students: more than 50% in those segments said they had felt, at least at one point, the desire to go back to their home country. Among Chinese students, this proportion rose to 70%.

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Short on time? Here are the highlights:

A survey of nearly 2,000 international students studying in Germany during the pandemic shows that many would like to remain in the country after graduating to work/immigrate or to progress to another level of study
The most challenging obstacles for these students are language barriers and difficulties in making new friends, suggesting a need for stronger international student supports at German universities

A 2021 Expatrio/DEGIS survey of nearly 2,000 international students who chose to study in Germany during the pandemic found that (1) most were drawn by the country’s no-tuition-fees policy and (2) more than half intended to stay in the country after their studies. That said, language barriers are a concern for many international students in Germany, including those who would like to stay on after graduation.

About the survey
The survey was conducted by Expatrio, a platform designed to support international students in Germany, while DEGIS is an organisation that helps international students to network and adjust to German culture.

Students from roughly 93 countries participated in the survey; most of them were studying for master’s degrees (67%). The survey was a follow-up to one conducted in 2020 and was larger than its predecessor, with 31% more student respondents. Responses were collected from August to October 2021 and reported in “Navigating the Pandemic: International Students’ Relocation to and Life in Germany 2021.”

Why do students choose Germany?
Surveyed students chose Germany primarily because of the country’s no-tuition-fees policy for all students in higher education (45%); employment opportunities were the next-most influential factor (18%), especially for Mexican and Brazilian respondents.