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This (China's $46 billion investment in Pakistan) can not be purely politically driven. Beijing is commercial: CEO’s, not think tank intellectuals, travel with politicians. Barron's Asia
Spurred by Chinese investment, the smart money is taking notice of Pakistan as an attractive investment destination. The investors are looking at the fact that Pakistani stocks have been outperforming both emerging and frontier markets for several years. The benchmark index of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE100) is up more than 20% in the last 12 months, according to NASDAQ.com.
Pakistani Shares in 2015:
After a dismal March, MSCI Pakistan rebounded strongly this month, returning 9.1% so far. In April, the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (FM) rose 4.3%, the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) dropped 1.2%, the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) fell 1.9%, according to Barron's Asia.
KSE-100 Performance:
In 2014, the KSE-100 Index gained 6,870 points thereby generating a handsome return of 27% (31% return in US$ terms), making Pakistan's KSE world's third best performing market. Total offerings in the year 2014 reached 9 as compared to 3 in the year 2013. After a gap of seven years, Rs 73 billion were raised through offerings in 2014 as compared to a meager Rs 4 billion raised in 2013. Foreign investors, that hold US$ 6.1 billion worth of Pakistani shares -which is 33% of the free-float (9% of market capitalization)-remained net buyers in 2014.
Pakistani Shares Valuation:
Even after outperforming both emerging and frontier market indices, Pakistani shares can be bought at deep discounts which make them very attractive, according to Renaissance Capital’s chief economist Charles Robertson. MSCI (Morgan Stanley Composite Index) Pakistan trades at only 8.4 times forward earnings, a 17% discount to MSCI Frontier Markets. For comparison purposes, fellow frontier south Asia markets Sri Lanka and Bangladesh trade at 13.4x and 21.4x respectively. India, included in the emerging market index, trades at 16.8 times.
Key Sectors:
Chinese investment in energy and infrastructure will help stimulate all sectors of Pakistani economy. But the sectors benefiting most from the $46 billion investment will likely include banks, energy and building materials, the sectors which are the favorites of Pakistani billionaire investor Mian Mohammad Mansha.
Being close to the ruling Sharif family makes Mansha the ultimate insider. Beyond his investments in banking, cement, energy and textiles, Mansha is also starting to invest in consumer products sector benefiting from rising incomes, growing middle class and increasing jobs created in Pakistan by the massive Chinese investment. Mansha owns a big chunk of Muslim Commercial Bank (MCB) share. He has recently been pumping more money into energy, cement and dairy businesses. Mansha's DG Khan Cements has announced plans to build a $300 million cement plant near Karachi. In additions, his Nishat Dairies has imported thousands of dairy cows for a dairy farm in Lahore.
Summary:
The $46 billion Chinese investment in energy and infrastructure has brought attention to tremendous investment opportunities in Pakistan, a nation of nearly 200 million people with rising middle class and growing consumption. Pakistani military's recent successes against the terrorists and China's massive investment commitments are expected to boost investor confidence in the country. Higher confidence will help draw other significant investors to invest in Pakistan over the next several years.
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The Indian stock market, as reflected by the S&P BSE Sensex, has fallen by at least 2,100 points or 7.1% from its highs and is adjusting to the reality of subdued earnings. Company results for the January-March 2015 quarter, so far, have not been encouraging, though analysts expect things to improve by the second half of the current financial year. The street expects earnings to get better with the improvement in business environment and pick-up in economic activity. Put differently, in the medium term, market movement will largely depend on the pace of expansion in the economy, which, to a large extent, will be determined by government action and implementation of ideas such as increasing capital expenditure.
Interestingly, even as some investors are getting edgy and expect quick government action on various fronts, observations from some of the international institutions that came in this month were largely optimistic about the future of the Indian economy. Encouraged by the recent policy action, rating agency Moody’s, while affirming its Baa3 rating on India, changed its outlook to positive from stable. It said in a statement: “…recent measures to address inflation, keep external balances in check, simplify the regulatory regime for investors, increase foreign direct investment, and facilitate infrastructure development will reduce some of India’s sovereign credit constraints.”
The government’s intent to improve the economic environment and action taken in this regard is being recognized. “Growth will benefit from recent policy reforms, a consequent pick-up in investment, and lower oil prices. Lower oil prices will raise real disposable incomes, particularly among poorer households, and help drive down inflation,” said the latest World Economic Outlook (April 2015) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Growth in India, according to the IMF, will be higher than that in China in 2015 and 2016, making it the fastest growing large economy in the world. It expects India to grow at 7.5% in both 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is expected to expand at an annual pace of 6.8% and 6.3%, respectively.
The World Bank had similar observations about the Indian economy. In its South Asia Economic Focus (Spring 2015) report, it noted, “India’s economy is poised to accelerate on the back of an ambitious reform agenda, and faster growth is expected to further drive down poverty.” The acceleration in growth, according to the World Bank, will be led by investment, which is expected to grow at an average rate of 12% between 2015 and 2017.
However, not all are equally enthused. A recent report (India’s Fiscal Roadblocks Could Stall Infrastructure Progress) by Standard & Poor’s presented a different picture. “India’s public finances are less than rock solid due to long-standing cracks in its budgetary system. While the country’s budgetary performances have strengthened in recent years, its hard-won fiscal improvements could yet unwind because of a financial or commodity shock,” the report said. It also highlighted that further reforms will be required on the fiscal front to be able to sustain higher investment spending. Efficient subsidy spending, which can free up resources for capital spending, is necessary to attain and maintain higher growth in the medium to long term. Both markets and policymakers will do well by paying attention to Standard & Poor’s observations. In fact, a financial or commodity shock can not only affect the progress made on the fiscal front, but also the wider economy.
http://www.livemint.com/Money/jClwqMpuzmMK1Dksx3iLQL/How-the-world-...
If enacted, that (Pak-China Corridor) plan would enable China’s naval vessels and merchants to bypass the Malacca Strait, long a haven for pirates and militants who prey on unsuspecting ships. The CPEC would allow the government and banks in the mainland to lend to Chinese companies operating in Pakistan, facilitating construction along the route. Some of the other line items in the deal aim to fix Pakistan’s failing energy infrastructure: the CPEC calls for $15.5 billion in investments ranging from coal to solar and hydroelectric power, scheduled to become part of Pakistan’s national electricity mix in 2017. That will follow a fiber optic cable linking Xinjiang and Rawalpindi, which will come at the cost of $44 million.
#Pakistan ETF launched to track price, yield performance of MSCI All Pakistan Select 25/50 Index.
http://247wallst.com/investing/2015/04/22/is-a-pakistan-etf-launch-... …
Global X is adding a new ETF under the Frontier Market Family of Global X ETFs, called the Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (PAK). This is set to track the price and yield performance of the MSCI All Pakistan Select 25/50 Index.
The new ETF will offer U.S. investors access to the largest, most liquid publicly traded companies in Pakistan. If you have looked at emerging market tables in the Economist or elsewhere, Pakistan is often cited as being among the top-performing nations. If you want proof of this, the Karachi Stock Exchange’s KSE 100 Index has risen roughly 200% over the past five years alone (see chart below).
ALSO READ: Lessons of Force Majeure for 2014, 2015 and Beyond
The fund’s total expense ratio of 0.88% is based on a 0.68% management fee and 0.20% in custody fees. Global X included a description of the index as follows:
The MSCI All Pakistan Select 25/50 Index is designed to represent the performance of the broad Pakistan equity universe, while including a minimum number of constituents. The broad Pakistan equity universe includes securities that are classified in Pakistan according to the MSCI Global Investable Market Index Methodology, together with companies that are headquartered or listed in Pakistan and carry out the majority of their operations in Pakistan.
Some basic facts that Global X provided along with its distribution material are as follows:
Goldman Sachs has included Pakistan in its “Next 11” list of economies.
Pakistan demonstrated zero correlation with the S&P 500 in 2014.
Pakistan is one of the larger, more liquid frontier markets. With a large, youthful labor force, it has become an enticing destination for investors looking beyond traditional emerging markets, which have been demonstrating slowing growth.
The ETF fact sheet shows that the index has 31 holdings in it. Also, the industry weightings are concentrated in financials (32.7%), energy (24.2%), materials (23%) and utilities (10.8%) — roughly 90% in four sectors alone. The top equity holdings with weightings in the ETF are as follows:
MCB Bank, 11.5%
Oil & Gas Development, 9.8%
United Bank, 6.1%
Fauji Fertilizer, 5.9%
Lucky Cement, 5.7%
Hub-Power, 4.9%
Pakistan State Oil, 4.8%
Engro, 4.7%
Bank Al-Habib, 4.1%
National Bank Pakistan, 3.7%
ALSO READ: Will India Be the Next Driver for Alternative Energy?
More support for the growth of Pakistan came from IMF data. Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded from $80 billion in 2000 to over $230 billion in 2013, a 4.3% annualized growth rate. The nation’s per capita GDP on a purchasing power parity basis has risen from $2,683 in 2000 to $4,746 in 2014 — and analysts expect that Pakistan’s GDP will grow at an annualized rate of 4.6% through 2019.
Read more: Is a Pakistan ETF Launch for You? - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/investing/2015/04/22/is-a-pakistan-etf-launch-...
#Pakistan: New U.S.-listed ETF set to capitalize on growing interest in Pakistan's markets http://on.wsj.com/1Es7CSM via @frontiermarkets
China’s launch on Monday of a massive infrastructure-spending plan in Pakistan has brought considerable attention to the South Asian frontier market. Chinese President Xi Jinping announced and launched a $28 billion package of infrastructure deals that will form part of the so-called China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Last weekend, Pakistan’s Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said the total Chinese investment into Pakistan would reach $46 billion.
Much of the spending will focus on power and transportation and is expected to boost Pakistan’s already-burgeoning economy. The announcement is also helping the country’s stock market to recover from a slump that saw the MSCI Pakistan index fall by more than a fifth in dollar terms over the two months to the end of March.
China’s colossal investment plan is not the only potentially market-moving news for Pakistan this week. Investment Bank Renaissance Capital yesterday described the country as an “undervalued reform story”, noting that the government is living up to its privatization promises—including its recent record-breaking sale of its stake in private sector banking giant HBL—and delivering reforms that should enhance stock valuations.
Against this backdrop, the timing of the launch of the first Pakistan-focused exchange-traded fund in the U.S. is remarkably fortuitous. U.S.-based ETF provider Global-X is launching the ETF tomorrow on the New York Stock Exchange.
The fund joins a growing list of single-country frontier-market ETFs, including Global-X’s Argentina and Nigeria funds, as well as Market Vectors’ Vietnam fund. Jay Jacobs, research analyst at Global X Funds, says: “With the launch of the … Pakistan ETF, investors now have access to one of the largest, most liquid frontier-market countries.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2015/04/22/pakistan-etf-opens-market...
Pakistan is another frontier market, full of potential based on growing population and middle class, rapid urbanization and industrialization, and ongoing, albeit slow, economic reforms. However, as with other frontier markets, many political and headline risks paired with weak market regulation continue to prevent Pakistan from receiving serious foreign investment. iShares MSCI Frontier 100 Fund ETF is virtually the only way to get a small 4.7% exposure. A dedicated ETF, Global X Pakistan KSE-30 ETF (PAK) has been in registration since 2010.
The Global X has filed for Next 11 ETF (Pending:NXTE) that will cost 0.75% and track the Solactive Next 11 Index, but its launch date is anyone's guess. Perhaps Global X is looking to launch at the same time as the Pakistan and Bangladesh ETFs to improve liquidity. The largest index provider MSCI in the meantime has come up with its own MSCI Next 11 ex-Iran GDP Weighted Index, which is waiting to be licensed.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1721332-emerging-markets-the-next-1...
The first Pakistan-focused ETF started trading in New York on Thursday, and the ETF’s launch might be well-timed, as China on Monday unveiled plans to invest $46 billion in the world’s sixth-most populous country.
The launch slot for the Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF PAK, +0.06% is “remarkably fortuitous,” noted Dan Keeler, writing for The Wall Street Journal’s frontier markets blog. He added that China’s massive infrastructure development program (known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) is not the only potentially market-moving news this week for Pakistan, as Renaissance Capital on Tuesday described the South Asian nation as an “undervalued reform story” that’s delivering on its privatization promises. Skeptics say China’s planned investment might not materialize, especially if Pakistan continues to serve as a terrorist haven.
Speaking of China, this month also has brought the launch of the first leveraged ETF tied to China’s frenzied mainland stock market. Investors ought to treat this turbocharged product with great care, wrote Barron’s Chris Dieterich on Tuesday, likening the ETF to strapping “a rocket booster to the back of a dragon.” Its full name is the Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2x Shares ETF. CHAU, -2.85%
The number of foreign single-country ETFs listed in the U.S. has grown to 204. (XTF.com data as of Wednesday put the figure at 203, so add the Pakistan product and you get 204.) Excluding leveraged products, there are 177 single-country ETFs.
About 30 new single-country ETFs came to market in 2014, and there are more than twice as many such funds as there were five years, said Ashley Lau in a Reuters report last month. Risks around single-country ETFs include their tendency to trade at much larger premiums or discounts than major U.S. domestic ETFs, she added. Another risk is many such funds have big exposure to a single stock or sector, as a Journal report once noted.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-new-ways-to-invest-in-pak...
NEW YORK, April 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Global X Funds, the New York based provider of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), today launched the Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (NYSE Arca: PAK). The fund is the first US-listed ETF to focus exclusively on Pakistan, providing investors with access to the largest companies by market capitalization in the country. Goldman Sachs has designated Pakistan as one of the "Next 11" economies – a group of large, fast-growing markets that are expected to be an important source of global economic growth and opportunity in the future.[1]
In addition to being the sixth most populous country in the world with over 196 million people, almost 60% of Pakistan's population is under the age of 25[2]. Pakistan is geographically positioned to benefit from the growing trade among China, India, Russia, Turkey and the Middle East. The country's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has also shown a commitment to strengthening its economy, lowering inflation and promoting stability since his election in 2013.
"With the launch of the Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF, investors now have access to one of the largest, most liquid frontier market countries," said Jay Jacobs, research analyst at Global X Funds. As investors search globally for investment opportunities, frontier markets like Pakistan are increasingly garnering attention for their historically low correlations to developed markets and growth potential.
ABOUT GLOBAL X FUNDS
Global X is a New York-based sponsor of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), offering access to investment opportunities across global markets. Founded in 2008, Global X is recognized by individual and institutional investors for its suite of income, international, commodity and alternative funds. With over 40 funds available across U.S. and foreign exchanges, Global X is one of the fastest growing issuers of ETFs. For more information, please visit www.globalxfunds.com.
DISCLOSURE
Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. Certain economies in the Middle East depend to a significant degree upon exports of primary commodities such as oil. A sustained decrease in commodity prices could have a significant negative impact on all aspects of the economy in the region. Middle Eastern governments have exercised and continue to exercise substantial influence over many aspects of the private sector. As an emerging country, Pakistan's economy is susceptible to economic, political and social instability; unanticipated economic, political or social developments could impact economic growth. Pakistan is also subject to natural disaster risk. In addition, recent political instability and protests in the Middle East have caused significant disruptions to many industries. Continued political and social unrest in these areas may negatively affect the value of your investment in the Fund. Pakistan has recently seen elevated levels of ethnic and religious conflict, in some cases resulting in violence or acts of terrorism. Escalation of these conflicts would have an adverse effect on Pakistan's economy. The fund is non-diversified.
Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Funds' summary or full prospectus, which may be obtained by calling 1-888-GX-FUND-1 (1.888.493.8631), or by visiting www.globalxfunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Global X Management Company, LLC serves as an advisor to the Global X Funds. The Funds are distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co., which is not affiliated with Global X Management Company or any of its affiliates. MSCI Indexes have been licensed for use by Global X Management Company, LLC. Global X Funds are not sponsored, endorsed, issued, sold, or promoted by MSCI nor does this company make any representations regarding the advisability of investing in the Global X Funds.
[1] Source: Goldman Sachs, "Beyond the BRICs: A Look at the 'Next 11'" April 2007
[2] CIA World Factbook, 2015
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-x-funds-opens-pakistan-1655004...
The Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (Pending:PAK) tracks the MSCI All Pakistan Select 25/50 Index, making it the first ETF to focus on Pakistan's economy."The broad Pakistan equity universe includes securities that are classified in Pakistan according to the MSCI Global Investable Market Index Methodology, together with companies that are headquartered or listed in Pakistan and carry out the majority of their operations in Pakistan," as stated in PAK's prospectus.Broad frontier market ETFs: FM, FRN, EMFM
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2448466-global-x-rolls-out-the-first-p...
For the adventurous, and usually, professional investor, Pakistan has been a rewarding place to invest. Pakistan, classified as a frontier market, was the world’s fifth-best equity market regardless of market classification last year.
In local currency terms, stocks in Pakistan gained 49.4% last year, topping the S&P 500, every benchmark index in Europe and plenty of other emerging and frontier markets along the way. The country is somewhat hard to access for most investors, though one notable exchange traded fund appears likely to increase its allocation to Pakistani stocks in the near-term. [A Strong, Hard to Access Frontier Market]
Index provider MSCI (NYSE: MSCI) said it will boost Pakistan’s weight in the MSCI Frontier Market 100 Index to 8.9%. That index is the underlying index for the $659.9 million iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (NYSEArca: FM), where Pakistan is currently the sixth-largest country weight at just 4.4%.
Pakistan’s increased weight in the frontier index means the combined weight to Kuwait and Nigeria will be trimmed to 40% from 51.3%. It was expected that after Qatar and the United Arab Emirates leave the frontier index next month for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index that Kuwait and Nigeria would combine for over half of the index and FM’s weight. [Defining Frontier Market ETFs]
Pakistan was demoted to frontier status in 2009 after its equity market was closed to sellers for over 100 days during the 2008 global financial crisis, according to news reports. Although Pakistan’s weight in FM will not increase until next month, “the impact of the decision was felt immediately. Foreigners purchased a net of $35.8 million worth of equity at the bourse (last) week and were the prime reason behind the KSE-100’s strong performance,” according to The Express Tribune.
Another ETF already allocates more than 8% of its weight to Pakistan: The EGShares EM Dividend High Income ETF (NYSEArca: EMHD), which debuted in August 2013. Pakistan is EMHD’s fifth-largest country weight at 8.1%. [Compensation With Emerging Markets ETFs]
EMHD’s 48 holdings are reasonably valued, even by the current standards of emerging markets stocks. The ETF sports a P/E ratio of 8.8 and a price-to-book ratio of almost 1.2, according to EGShares data. Pakistan has pushed to regain its emerging markets status, but has thus far been unsuccessful.
http://www.etftrends.com/2014/04/pakistans-weight-in-this-etf-set-t...
The United States and Pakistan on Wednesday announced to facilitate and accelerate private investment in clean energy projects in Pakistan.
Under this initiative, the US government will work with Pakistan to advance reforms that will allow the US, Pakistani, and international private sector developers and investors to add at least 3,000 megawatts of clean power to Pakistan’s national grid within the next 3-5 years.
“This clean energy initiative will help address Pakistan’s energy challenges,” said US State Department’s Special Envoy for Energy Amos Hochstein during the second US-Pakistan Energy Working Group under the broader US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue framework. “It is a partnership to help alleviate Pakistan’s energy challenges based on a set of goals shared by Pakistan, the United States, multilateral banks, donors, and the private sector.”
Special Envoy Hochstein, Deputy Chief of Mission Williams and a delegation from Washington met Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Khawaja Asif and a range of Pakistani government officials to discuss measures to increase cooperation in the clean energy sector. Energy demand in Pakistan is expected to double by 2020. Addressing this challenge will require significant action by the government to institute reforms that create space for private sector support, as well as the support of many countries and institutions.
To advance the goals of this common initiative, the US and Pakistani officials discussed steps to: strengthen regulatory institutions and develop market-based rules to attract private investment; develop an investment strategy for expanding the role of clean energy systems; expand transmission capacity for clean energy projects; and mobilise loans, grants, technical assistance and guarantees needed to manage and reduce private sector risks and leverage private capital into clean power projects.
Helping the energy sector become more market-based is one of the best alternatives to ending the current crisis and ensuring that future demand can be met. Clean power investments in hydroelectric, wind, solar, biomass, and natural gas, combined with an expanded effort to improve the efficiency at all parts of the energy sector, will reduce Pakistan’s dependence on foreign fuel sources, help address climate change, improve Pakistan’s energy security, and promote innovation and growth.
This initiative marks a new phase of US energy sector assistance to Pakistan, which since 2010 has contributed over 1,500 megawatts of electricity to Pakistan’s national grid by refurbishing existing hydropower and thermal generation facilities, completing hydropower projects, and improving the operation and efficiency of Pakistan’s transmission and distribution systems. inp
ISLAMABAD: The United States and Pakistan on Wednesday announced to facilitate and accelerate private investment in clean energy projects in Pakistan.
Under this initiative, the US government will work with Pakistan to advance reforms that will allow the US, Pakistani, and international private sector developers and investors to add at least 3,000 megawatts of clean power to Pakistan’s national grid within the next 3-5 years.
“This clean energy initiative will help address Pakistan’s energy challenges,” said US State Department’s Special Envoy for Energy Amos Hochstein during the second US-Pakistan Energy Working Group under the broader US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue framework. “It is a partnership to help alleviate Pakistan’s energy challenges based on a set of goals shared by Pakistan, the United States, multilateral banks, donors, and the private sector.”
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/business/30-Apr-2015/us-to-help-pakist...
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