Karachi Shipbuilding Boom Expected With Pakistan Navy Modernization

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan is launching domestic construction of warships, submarines and missile boats as part of its ambitious naval modernization program in collaboration with China, according to media reports.

Karachi Shipyard

Chinese media reports have described a building program involving six of eight S-20 AIP-equipped variants of the Type-039A/Type-041 submarine under negotiation; four "Improved F-22P" frigates equipped with enhanced sensors and weaponry (possibly including the HQ-17 surface-to-air missile developed from the Russian Tor 1/SA-N-9); and six Type-022 Houbei stealth catamaran missile boats, to be built by Pakistan's state-owned shipbuilder Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW), according to DefenseNews.

Pakistan is expanding and modernizing its underwater fleet with 8 additional AIP-equipped submarines jointly built with China.  Mansoor Ahmed of Quaid-e-Azam University told Defense News that AIP-equipped conventional submarines "provide reliable second strike platforms, [and] an assured capability resides with [nuclear-powered attack and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines], which are technically very complex and challenging to construct and operate compared to SSKs, and also very capital intensive."

Expansion of KSEW in Karachi includes a new foundry, fabrication facilities to cover all aspects of ship construction, berthing facilities, and two graving docks of 26,000 and 18,000 dead weight tons, spread over 71 acres. A 7,881-ton ship lift transfer system will be completed next year. KSEW will expand to occupy facilities vacated by the Navy as it transfers from Karachi to Ormara. The Pakistan Navy Dockyard, which is adjacent to KSEW, already has facilities upgraded by the French during construction of Agosta-90B submarines.

The Pakistan Navy modernization efforts further expands existing China-Pakistan military manufacturing collaboration at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) which has resulted in design and manufacturing of JF-17 fighter jets for Pakistan Air Force.

JF-17 Fighter Jet

In addition to designing and building military hardware together, Pakistan and China are also increasingly collaborating on manufacturing consumer appliances and products. The Pakistan-China economic corridor project includes setting up of several special economic zones for this purpose. A good example of this cooperation is Haier-Ruba special economic zone in Lahore.  Haier-Ruba joint venture in Pakistan has announced plans to start manufacturing laptops and smartphones in Lahore this year, according to the JV chairman Shah Faisal Afridi. The Haier-Ruba group is one of the largest manufacturers of polyester yarn and home appliances in the country.

The growth of both military and civilian manufacturing industries is helping to develop Pakistan's human capital and creating job opportunities for engineers, technicians and other workers. 

Pakistan has taken a page from China's industrialization playbook which shows that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) led the nation's industrial growth, first with military hardware and then expanding into consumer and industrial product manufacturing.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan to Deploy AIP Subs For 2nd Strike

Pakistani Military Pushing Industrialization

IDEAS 2014: Pakistan's Arms Bazar

Pakistan-China Industrial Corridor to Boost FDI, Manufacturing and ...

Haier Pakistan to Expand to Consumer Electronics

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Pakistan's Human Capital

[Riaz Haq]

Venkatesh Kandlikar, defence analyst at GlobalData, told Naval Technology that the INS Vikrant features a significant amount of Indian industrial contribution in the design and manufacturing stage, even using locally sourced steel.

However, the programme was not without its difficulties, with component and equipment delivery and supply chain issues delaying the commissioning by around five years. The programme also suffered from cost overruns, coming in at $3bn more than the initial allocated budget.


INS Vikrant (specifications)
Displacement 43,000t
Speed 28kt
Endurance 7,500nm
Embarked aircraft 30 fixed- and rotary-wing

https://www.naval-technology.com/analysis/ins-vikrant-a-profile-of-...

According to Kandlikar, the Indian Navy is expected to field three aircraft carriers in its fleet by the next decade. With Vikramiditya in service and Vikrant now commissioned, India is beginning to plan the build of the future INS Vishal, which is expected to be larger still than existing carriers and feature updated technologies, such as an electromagnetic air-lift systems, also known as EMALS, as being installed on the US Navy’s Ford-class super carriers.

“With the experience gained in the construction of IAC-1, supported by the indigenous ecosystem it is expected that the Indian Navy will soon get a green light from the Indian Ministry of Defence to start designing the third aircraft carrier,” Kandlikar said.

Air wing composition
In terms of embarked aircraft, Kandlikar said the Indian Navy was looking to deploy a new carrier air wing comprising of either F/A-18 Super Hornets or Rafale-M fighters. The Indian Air Force currently operates the conventional Rafale 4.5 generation fighter, which is manufactured by France’s Dassault Aviation, offering a commonality option for the Indian Navy.

Capability-wise, the two aircraft are similar, although the Rafale is the newer aircraft and is being heavily pushed for export. The Super Hornet, meanwhile, is entering the twilight of its naval career. Although it still broadly matches the Rafale in terms of engine thrust it, is slightly slower at Mach 1.6 compared to Mach 1.8, but with a higher payload capacity at 66,000lb (29,937kg) to the Rafale’s 54,000lb.

However, in the near-to-mid-term, India will utilise its fleet of 45 MiG-29K/KUB fighters, acquired from Russia following the signing of separate deals in 2004 and 2010. India is also developing a navalised variant of its LCA/HAL Tejas fighter, although it is not known when the platform will be integrated into the country’s carrier fleet.

The rotary component, vital for search-and-rescue and airborne early warning and surveillance roles, will be fulfilled by the Russian-supplied Kamov 31 helicopter.

[Riaz Haq]

3 cheers for INS Vikrant & 3 questions for India’s leadership on naval doctrine

by Shekhar Gupta

https://youtu.be/3GbgmJM4Ygw

Key points:

1. Indian aircraft carrier is powered by American General Electric turbines

2. Russian MIG 29s require a lot of maintenance. These will be replaced with French Rafales or US F-18s in future.

3. Chinese aircraft carriers are totally indigenous (including engines, weapons, and aircraft) are much bigger

4. China has developed "aircraft carrier buster missiles" to deal with hostile nations' Navies.

5. Indian Navy hid its aircraft carriers from Pakistani submarines during 1965 and 1971 wars.

6. Indian-American analyst Ashley Tellis questions the utility of Indian aircraft carriers in the absence of India's geopolitical aims and its Naval Doctrine.

----------

Ashley Tellis on submarines vs aircraft carriers

https://youtu.be/6BficVBrqls

------------------

The Unusual Carrier Killer Capability Of The Chinese Navy’s Strategic Bomber - Naval News

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/10/the-unusual-carrier-ki...

China’s recent test of a hypersonic ‘Orbital Bombardment System’ has been characterized as a ‘Sputnik moment’. The world is only just waking up to Chinese advances in strategic weapons technologies. Among a raft of new weapons, which increasingly do not have direct equivalents in the West, are anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs). One of these, an air-launched version, appears to include a hypersonic maneuvering missile.

[Riaz Haq]

INS Vikrant boosts Indian Navy's firepower but Chinese navy still ahead in numbers

https://www.cnbctv18.com/india/ins-vikrant-india-first-indigenously...

NS Vikrant is the largest indigenous warship built by India and expected to "bolster India's position in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and its quest for a blue water navy". How will it boost India's naval power, especially against rival China?

For starters, the induction of India's first indigenous aircraft carrier means the navy now has two aircraft carriers, including INS Vikramaditya in service boosting the country's maritime defence. Compared to the Indian Navy, China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has three aircraft carriers. India now has two aircraft carriers—INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya. China has three—Fujian, Shandong and Liaoning.

India has now joined the "select group of nations" which have the capability to indigenously design and build an aircraft carrier, say experts.
"There are only 14 countries in the world which have at least one aircraft carrier and only six countries in the world have the capacity and the capability to build an aircraft carrier. India is one of these six," Lt Col JS Sodhi. a Defence and Strategic Affairs analyst told CNBC-TV18.com.
INS Vikrant's importance for India
INS Vikrant "would bolster India's position in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and its quest for a blue water Navy", the government had said in July this year in a press release.
A blue water Navy "operates deep into the oceans", Sodhi added.

This comes at a time when the ties between the two nations are under stress owing to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army's (PLA) movements around India's borders as well as Chinese PLAN's movement in and around the Indian Ocean.
With INS Vikrant's entry, India can deploy an aircraft carrier each on the eastern and western seaboard and expand its maritime presence.

"We will have two aircraft carriers. Because of that, India, having an eastern and western coast and vast oceans on both sides, will be able to utilise one carrier on each seaboard... we'll be able to cover the primary areas of maritime interest," Captain Kamlesh Agnihotri (Retd.), a senior fellow at the National Maritime Foundation (NMF) told CNBC-TV18.com.
The need for an aircraft carrier
An aircraft carrier has great operational range, carrying fighter aircraft which are important in any battle to project power and control the sea.
NMF's Agnihotri said, "projecting powers and sea control is the primary purpose of aircraft carriers," while adding, "the aircraft carrier are floating airfields."

"The aircraft carrier adds to the maritime power of the country. It is the most potent weapon of a navy because it has the capacity to operate at a very large distance. It also acts as an air base at the time of conflict," Sodhi said.

India Vs China maritime power
While INS Vikrant adds to the Indian Navy's firepower, Chinese navy or PLAN is ahead in the number of warships and overall seapower. According to the World Directory of Modern Military Warships (2022), China ranks second on the Global Naval Powers Ranking 2022 after the United States — the true global blue water navy, while India ranks seventh.

"Comparing India's carrier INS Vikrant to Fujian is not correct," said Agnihotri. This is because, while INS Vikrant has a ski-jump kind of take-off mechanism, the Chinese Fujian has a catapult type of take-off mechanism.
"With catapult, you are able to launch heavier aircraft carrying more payloads, and more fuels for longer range," he said. It is better to compare Vikrant with Shandong, the second aircraft carrier China owns.
Besides, aircraft carriers, India has INS Arihant, an indigenously built
nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).

[Riaz Haq]

INS Vikrant boosts Indian Navy's firepower but Chinese navy still ahead in numbers

https://www.cnbctv18.com/india/ins-vikrant-india-first-indigenously...

"Comparing India's carrier INS Vikrant to Fujian is not correct," said Agnihotri. This is because, while INS Vikrant has a ski-jump kind of take-off mechanism, the Chinese Fujian has a catapult type of take-off mechanism.
"With catapult, you are able to launch heavier aircraft carrying more payloads, and more fuels for longer range," he said. It is better to compare Vikrant with Shandong, the second aircraft carrier China owns.
Besides, aircraft carriers, India has INS Arihant, an indigenously built
nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
Can India counter Chinese navy incursions?
NMF's Agnihotri said, "our strong carrier-based force will be able to counter the challenges." Sodhi, however, said that "India is fast emerging as great naval power but China has an edge."
"We have picked up speed in the defence manufacturing indigenously. We are also slowly matching up," Sodhi added.
Earlier, news agency ANI quoted Southern Naval Command (SNC) Chief Vice admiral MA Hampiholi as saying that the Indian Navy needs three aircraft carriers to deter Chinese presence in Indian Ocean Region.

[Riaz Haq]

India is Building a Carrier Fleet, but Pakistan has a Plan to Sink It
To directly threaten Pakistan, the small-deck carriers will have to maneuver closer to “anti-access / area denial” weapons which could sink them.

by Robert Beckhusen

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/india-building-carrier-fle...


Most likely, India would attempt to enforce a blockade of Pakistan and use its carriers to strike land-based targets. But Pakistan has several means to attack Indian carriers — with near-undetectable submarines and anti-ship missiles — which must also operate relatively far from India itself in the western and northern Arabian Sea. China does not have a similar disadvantage, as the PLAN would likely keep its carriers close and within the “first island chain” including Taiwan, closer to shore where supporting aircraft and ground-based missile launchers can help out.

Thus, Indian carriers would be relatively vulnerable and only one of them will have aircraft capable of launching with standard ordnance and fuel. And that is after Vishal sets sail in the next decade.

To directly threaten Pakistan, the small-deck carriers will have to maneuver nearer to shore — and thereby closer to “anti-access / area denial” weapons which could sink them. And even with a third carrier, the threat of land-based Pakistani aircraft will force the Indian Navy to dedicate a large proportion of its own air wings to defense — perhaps half of its available fighters, according to 2017 paper by Ben Wan Beng Ho for the Naval War College Review.

“Therefore, it is doubtful that any attack force launched from an Indian carrier would pack a significant punch,” Ho writes. “With aircraft available for strike duties barely numbering into the double digits, the Indian carrier simply cannot deliver a substantial ‘pulse’ of combat power against its adversary.”

Essentially, this makes Indian carriers’ self-defeating, with the flattops existing primarily to defend themselves from attack rather than taking the fight to their enemy. Carriers are also expensive symbols of national prestige, and it is unlikely the Indian Navy will want to risk losing one, two or all three. Under the circumstances, India’s investment in carriers makes more sense symbolically, and primarily as a way of keeping shipyards busy and shipyard workers employed.

However, this is not to entirely rule out a carrier-centric naval strategy. Ho notes that Indian carriers could be useful when operating far out at sea and in the western Arabian Sea, effectively as escort ships for commercial shipping and to harass Pakistani trade. Nevertheless, this strategy comes with a similar set of problems.

“In any attempt to impose sea control in the northern Arabian Sea and to interdict Pakistani seaborne commerce by enforcing a blockade of major Pakistani maritime nodes, Indian carrier forces would have to devote a portion of their already meager airpower to attacking Pakistani vessels, thereby exacerbating the conundrum alluded to earlier,” Ho added. “What is more, Pakistani ships are likely to operate relatively close to their nation’s coast, to be protected by Islamabad’s considerable access-denial barrier.”

Another possibility is India massing its carriers in the later stages of a war after the Army and Air Force pummel and degrade the Pakistani military.

But this raises the question as to whether India strictly needs carriers at all if it cannot use them during the decisive periods of a conflict — as opposed to, say, less-expensive warships, and more of them, equipped with long-range missiles.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan opens defence expo IDEAS 2022 with participation from 57 countries
300 exhibitors and hundreds of foreign delegates take part in Karachi event

https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/pakistan-opens-defence-exp...


IDEAS 2022 will feature advanced military hardware and software with a focus on technologies such as artificial intelligence. Defence manufacturers from Turkey, China, US, UK, European Union, Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa are showcasing their products at the 11th edition of the expo, said Maj. Gen. Mohammad Arif Malik, the head of the country’s Defence Export Promotion Organization (DEPO).

-----------

Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, who inaugurated IDEAS 2022, said that “IDEAS is an iconic platform for showcasing the latest defence technologies, and is a regional gateway for international suppliers and manufacturers to explore new avenues of defence cooperation.” He noted that Pakistan’s defence industry has achieved a sufficient level of quality, reliability and competency in the international market.

“Pakistan is now exporting high-level defence products to more than 60 countries”, however, the volume of exports did not reflect the country’s actual potential due to the limited involvement of the private sector and little attention to research and development.

----------

Pakistan’s longtime allies China and Turkey have the largest representation at the expo. Chinese state-run defence conglomerate China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO) displayed missiles and weapon systems including the Red Arrow 9A anti-tank guided missile.

Top Turkish defence companies, including Roketsan, state-run STM and ASFAT, showcased their products ranging from military hardware to modern drones to tactical mini-UAV systems. Turkish Aerospace exhibited the models of the T129 ATAK helicopter, Gokbey multirole helicopter, Gokturk-2 observation satellite, as well as Anka unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and Aksungur medium-altitude long-range endurance (MALE) UAV. “We aim to increase joint cooperation [with Pakistan] on high technologies that will guide the future of the aerospace industry,” said Turkish Aerospace President and CEO Prof Temel Kotil.

Some of Pakistan’s advanced military hardware exhibited at the expo included unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), air defence systems, missile systems, tanks and armoured personnel carriers (APC).

Pakistan’s Shahpar-II medium-altitude long-endurance UAV system, advanced Harbah anti-ship cruise missile by state-owned Global Industrial and Defence Solutions (GIDS) and electronic warfare system by National Radio and Telecommunication Corporation were on display. The locally developed Al-Khalid tanks and modern assault rifles manufactured by Pakistan Ordinance Factories (POF) were also exhibited. Spectators also got a close look at the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) JF-17 Thunder fighter jets. PAF jets are expected to perform aerial manoeuvres and demonstrate the air force’s capabilities on the concluding day of the expo.

[Riaz Haq]

Istanbul Naval Shipyard Launches MILGEM Corvette “PNS KHAIBAR” For Pakistan Navy
On Nov. 25, 2022, the PN MILGEM-class corvette PNS Khaibar (282) was ceremonially launched for the Pakistan Navy at Turkiye's Istanbul Naval Shipyard. "Khaibar" is the third corvette under construction but is expected to be the second ship delivered.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/11/istanbul-naval-shipyar...

Three important events took place at the Istanbul Naval Shipyard. The primary event was the launching of the third PN MILGEM corvette for the Pakistan Navy, the future PNS Khaibar (282). Following the ceremony, the keel of the first Hisar-class offshore patrol vessel, the future TCG Akhisar (P-1220), was laid and the first steel of the second OPV (P-1221 – TCG Kochisar) was cut.

The ceremony was attended by high-ranking representatives of both countries. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the chief guest at the ceremony, while Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sherif and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, as well as high-ranking officers of the two navies, were other guests VIP.

In his speech, President Erdogan highlighted Turkish-Pakistani relations in the field of defense industry in recent years. He also stated that Turkey will realize significant developments in the defense industry within the next year.

President Erdogan also remarked that the 4th corvette of the PN MILGEM project will be delivered to Pakistan in February 2025.

After the launching ceremony, the keel of the lead vessel of the Hisar-class OPV was laid, and the construction of the second OPV has officially begun.

In July 2018, a contract was signed between the Military Factory and Shipyard Management Corporation (ASFAT) of Turkey and the Pakistani National Defense Ministry Ammunition Production and Karachi Shipyard for the construction of four Milgem class vessels based on Turkish Ada-class design. Turkish defence minister at the time, Nurettin Canikli, described the deal as “the largest defense export of Turkey in one agreement.”

The contract entails the construction of two corvettes in Turkey and two at Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KS&EW). The contract has also provisions for the transfer of design rights and construction know-how from Turkey to Pakistan.

N MILGEM Program consists of 4 ships, 2 ships will be built in Istanbul Shipyard Command and 2 ships will be built in KSEW. The program started on 11 March 2019. The deliveries of the ships, which will be able to perform all kinds of military duties from air defense to submarine defense, are expected to be made at six-month intervals starting from August 2023.

The exact configuration of the Pakistan Milgem-class ships has not been made public yet. During the Aman Naval Exercise held in February 2019, Admiral Abbasi said that Pakistan ships will be fitted with a 16-Cell VLS behind the main gun. It is expected that the Babur-class corvettes will be armed with MBDA’s Albatros NG air defence system and Harbah Anti-ship and land attack missiles.

The propulsion system for all the MILGEM ships consist of one LM2500 gas turbine in a combined diesel and gas turbine configuration with two diesel engines; total propulsion power is 31,600 kilowatts.

Turkey’s Ada-class are multipurpose corvettes able to conduct a wide a range of missions, including reconnaissance, surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air warfare.

Key data:

Displacement: 2,926 tonnes
Length: 108.2 m
Beam: 14.8 m
Draft: 4.05 m
Propulsion: CODAG
Max speed: 31 knots
Range: 3500 nautical miles
Endurance: 15 days at sea
Crew: 93+40

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan PM Sharif, Turkish President Erdogan jointly inaugurate new warship for Pakistani Navy - The Hindu

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-pm-sharif-turk...

In response to a question about increased defence cooperation between the two nations, Mr. Niazi noted: "Both militaries are continuously exchanging knowledge and expertise. Construction and upgradation projects such as 17,000 tonne Fleet Tanker, PN-MILGEM and Agosta 90B submarines, Super Mushak trainers, UAV drones, and so on are evidence of this strong friendship and military cooperation." Under the bilateral project, Turkey was tasked to build four corvette warships for the Pakistan Navy — two in Istanbul and two in Karachi.

The first corvette warship for the Pakistan Navy known as PNS Babar was launched in Istanbul in August 2021 while the foundation stone for the second ship PNS Badr was laid in Karachi in May 2022, another report on the inauguration ceremony by the Dawn newspaper said.

Mr. Sharif during the inauguration informed that the fourth warship would be delivered in February 2025.

The new warships have a length of 99 metres, a displacement capacity of 2,400 tonnes, and a speed of 29 nautical miles.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan launches first locally built assault boat
By Usman Ansari

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/12/13/pakistan-launches-firs...

Pakistan’s Bahria Boat Building Yard launched its first 12T marine assault boat on Dec. 5 at its Karachi facility as part of a technology transfer deal with Polish shipbuilder Techno Marine.

The deal represents Techno Marine’s expanding presence in Pakistan; the company previously supplied 30 Chaser TM-1226 rigid inflatable boats for Pakistan’s naval special forces.

The contract for the marine assault boats was signed in 2018, but verifiable public information is limited. Available information notes the delivery in 2019 of two 12T vessels.

However, a spokesman with Bahria Boat Building Yard told Defense News the Pakistan Navy ordered 18 12T boats made up of two types. The Karachi Naval Dockyard is building those powered by outboard engines, and the Navy hired Bahria to make those powered by water jets. Bahria is currently building the remaining three of four vessels it is currently contracted to produce.

The spokesman also said efforts are underway to secure more domestic customers for the Bahria-built boats.

Around the 2003-2004 time frame, Thailand’s Marsun shipyard supplied M-16 fast assault boats — similar to the 12T — and the design for Pakistan’s locally built Jurrat-class missile boats. However, the M-16 vessels no longer meet the Pakistan Navy’s requirements.

The Bahria spokesman said the 12T “is for surveillance, policing purposes and [is] extremely swift in handling, as required, to operate in restricted/Creek areas,” but also around other sensitive areas such as the main naval base in Ormara and the commercial port of Gwadar.

The “Creek areas” refers to the disputed border with India around the Sir Creek, where the land border reaches the Arabian Sea. The tidal estuary is formed of marshland and shifting creeks. Conflicting claims over the border have resulted in a disputed maritime boundary in the Arabian Sea shaped like a large triangle, within which may be subsea energy resources.

Though the Pakistan Marines service patrols the Creeks area with British-built Griffon hovercraft, the 12T would enable a more effective patrolling presence into the disputed area of sea.

The 12T is equipped with twin inboard Cummins-powered Hamilton water jets. It can reach 42 knots (48 mph). It is also equipped with a navigational suite from British company Raymarine, and features ballistic protection by Danish company Scanfiber Composites.

[Riaz Haq]

Even as Pakistan’s currency plunges and the country pursues a bailout package to avoid default, the country’s naval officials say its maritime modernization programs remain on track.


https://www.defensenews.com/smr/defending-the-pacific/2023/02/13/ho...

Undersea advancements
Meanwhile, neighboring China is set to deliver to Pakistan the first Chinese-built Type 039B-based Hangor II submarine in 2024, followed by the remainder — three more from China and four produced domestically — at six-month intervals.

It has been unclear whether Germany would approve export licenses for the submarine type’s diesel engines. In 2020, Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence Production, the Navy’s public relations department, the German embassy in Islamabad, and Germany’s Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control all declined to comment on the matter.


(Rick) Fisher (a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center) said China’s submarine customers likely prefer the proven reputation of the German-designed, Chinese-co-produced diesel engines, but Germany’s refusal to grant the necessary clearance means “customers will have to settle for Chinese submarine diesels, or forgo the option of cheap and effective Chinese submarines.”

Nevertheless, submarine expert Aaron Amick, who runs the website Sub Brief, believes the Type 039B “is a good conventional submarine.”

“Most important, and unlike Chinese nuclear submarines, it is very quiet. Pakistan acquiring the Type 039B is a smart decision because it is a powerful, low-cost, short supply chain addition to their Navy,” Amick said. “Incorporating indigenous ship and weapons systems makes these variants uniquely powerful. India should take note that these subs can shoot the Babur-3 nuclear-capable missile up to 280 miles. The combination of stealth and long-range nuclear attack has changed the naval advantage clearly in favor of Pakistan.”

Similarly, independent defense analyst Mansoor Ahmed said the Hangor II will “transform Pakistan’s submarine capabilities.” By more than doubling Pakistan’s “modern subsurface fleet, they will narrow the force asymmetry with archrival India” and ensure greater survivability of Pakistani subs “in the face of growing Indian [anti-submarine warfare] capabilities.”

He noted the Hangor II boats are “insulated from sanctions and other restrictions believed to be associated with Western-origin, big-ticket weapon systems. Coupled with an expanding and modernizing surface fleet, these will also be useful in any Pakistani sea-denial strategy.”

The country’s previous efforts to establish a sea-based deterrent include the 2012 inauguration of the Naval Strategic Forces Command headquarters and the 2016 unveiling of a very-low frequency communications facility for submarines.

With India expanding its own fleet of conventional and nuclear-powered attack and ballistic missile submarines, the Hangor II subs are “the most important step toward augmenting the naval leg” of Pakistan’s second-strike capability, Ahmed said.

“Only a more survivable, flexible and numerically balanced Pakistani submarine fleet can act as a deterrent in a future crisis, for which these Hangor submarines are a much-needed addition that will undoubtedly help improve strategic stability in South Asia,” he added.

But Fida Muhammad Khan, a defense economics analyst with the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics think tank, said the government’s fiscal troubles threaten naval programs still in their planning stages.

Given the Navy generally takes a back seat in preference to the other services, those modernization efforts not yet physically underway could be cut, or their delivery timetables stretched out, he told Defense News.