Iran's Chabahar vs Pakistan's Gwadar

[Riaz Haq]

Chabahar port in Iran is only about 100 miles from Gwadar port in Pakistan. Both are natural deep sea ports in the Arabian sea.

Gwadar Extends into Deep Sea with East & West Bays

Eastern Half of Gwadar Port

Gwadar port's planned capacity when it is completed will be 300 to 400 million tons of cargo annually.  It is comparable to the capacity of all of India's ports combined annual capacity of 500 million tons of cargo today.   It is far larger than the 10-12 million tons cargo handling capacity planned for Chabahar.

Completed Gwadar Berths & Cranes

To put Gwadar's scale in perspective, let's compare it with the largest US port of Long Beach which handles 80 million tons of cargo, about a quarter of what Gwadar will handle upon completion of the project. Gawadar port will be capable of handling the world's largest container ships and massive oil tankers.

Gawadar port is being built in Pakistan by the Chinese as part of the ambitious $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will eventually serve as Hong Kong West for  growing Chinese trade with the Middle East and Europe.  CPEC will also enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan to trade with Central Asia through China across China's borders with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

Gwadar Port Authority Building

Chabahar is ostensibly an Indian effort to build a port in Iran to bypass Pakistan for India's trade with landlocked Afghanistan and other Central Asian states.  Prime Minister Modi has committed $500 million investment in Chabahar, a tiny fraction of the Chinese commitment for Gwadar. A trilateral agreement was recently signed in Tehran by Indian Prime Minister Modi, Iranian President Rouhani and Afghan President Ghani.

Trade with Afghanistan through Afghan-Iran border in the West will probably remain a pipe dream given that 1) most of Afghan population lives in east and south close to the border with Pakistan and 2) Afghanistan has very poor infrastructure making it very difficult to move cargo across land from west to east and south of the country.

Big Chinese Ship Docked at Gwadar

Pakistan suspects that India's real objective in Iran is to locate its intelligence agents under the cover of Chabahar port construction workers to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and support Baloch insurgency to destabilize Pakistan. These suspicions were strengthened when Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadav, operating under the fake name Husain Mubarak Patel, was arrested in Balochistan in March this year. Yadav confessed he was operating as an undercover RAW agent from his base in Chabahar, Iran.

If Iran does nothing to stop Indian covert activities from its soil against Pakistan, Iran-Pakistan relations could suffer irreparable harm. Efforts to sabotage CPEC will not please China either, and the Chinese are far more important to Iran as trading partners than India. This should give pause to hardline anti-Pakistan sectarian elements in Tehran.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsYDpMY35U8





Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Gwadar as Hong Kong West

China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor

Indian Spy Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Ex Indian Spy Documents RAW Successes Against Pakistan

Saleem Safi of GeoTV on Gwadar

Pakistan FDI Soaring with Chinese Money for CPEC

[Riaz Haq]

China to invest $15 billion in petrochemical industry at Pakistan's Arabian Sea port

https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1931571/pakistan

#China to invest $15 billion in #petrochemical industry at #Pakistan #Gwadar port. #CPEC has seen #Beijing pledge over $60 billion for #energy & #infrastructure projects in Pakistan, central to China’s (BRI) to develop land & sea trade routes globally

Investment would include a power pipeline project from Gwadar port to western China
Pakistan said last month it is formulating a strategy to improve the security of Chinese companies operating in the country

“Chinese companies would invest in the petrochemical sector in Gwadar, including the project of energy pipeline from Gwadar to China,” Board of Investment (BOI) secretary Fareena Mazhar told the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan.
She added that talks related to the projects were underway, as BOI is working on 50 reforms to create a conducive investment environment and improve the ease of doing business in Pakistan.
Chinese business leaders met Prime Minister Imran Khan in Islamabad last week and reposed their confidence in Pakistan’s “policy support and security,” months after a blast killed nine Chinese nationals working on a CPEC project in northwestern Pakistan.
In a statement after the meeting, Khan’s office said he would hold monthly meetings to “review progress regarding issues faced by Chinese investors.”
Last month, Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed announced Pakistan was formulating a strategy to improve the security of Chinese nationals and companies operating in the country.
CPEC has seen Beijing’s pledge over $60 billion for energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan, central to China’s wider Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to develop land and sea trade routes in Asia and beyond.

[Riaz Haq]

• Coastal comprehensive development zone to be established on KPT’s reclaimed land
• $3.5bn plan envisages new berths for port, new fishery port, harbour bridge to unlock Pakistan’s Blue Economy
• Centre calls the initiative a game-changer for Pakistan

https://www.dawn.com/news/1648433/cpec-panel-okays-ambitious-karach...

KARACHI: Calling it a “game-changer”, the federal government on Satur­day unveiled an ambitious plan to rebuild Karachi’s coastline under the China-Pakistan Economic Corri­dor (CPEC) with $3.5 billion “direct Chinese investment” that aims to overhaul city’s seaboard with new berths for the port, a new fishery port and a ‘majestic harbour bridge’ connecting it with Manora islands and Sandspit beach.

The Karachi Coastal Co­m­prehensive Develop­ment Zone (KCCDZ) — spread over 640 hectares or 1,581 acres on the western backwaters marsh land of the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) leading to revamp one of the oldest city slums Machhar Colony relocating its more than half a million population — is an initiative of the Ministry of Maritime Affairs.

The KCCDZ is the latest addition to CPEC projects aimed at providing Karachi with an ultra modern urban infrastructure zone, placing it among the top port cities of the world.

The announcement came from the top when a key member of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s cabinet sha­red some details of the project and claimed it carried “enormous potential for global investors as well”.

“And the best thing of this project is that it’s solely based on foreign [Chinese] investment without any loan,” said Minister for Mar­i­time Affairs Syed Ali Zaidi while speaking to Dawn.

Also read: Slow pace of work on CPEC irks Chinese companies

“The Chinese work so fast and I guess that it would not take more than five or six years to complete the project. Under the agreed plan, we would relocate some 20,000 to 25,000 families from Machhar Colony and relocate them. Believe me it’s a huge thing for Pakistan. It’s something massive. It would bring multifold advantages to Pakistan’s maritime economy and further strengthen our coastal development.”


He said after assuming the office as the minister for maritime affairs he vigorously looked for the opportunity for the KCCDZ and made all-out efforts to include it in the CPEC projects. For this purpose, he added, he consulted a number of Chinese companies, investors and officials of the neighbouring country and his efforts finally yielded results.

Earlier, the federal minister shared the “monumental decision” on a social me­dia platform, coming up with ske­tchy details of the KCCDZ. He, however, did not explain terms and conditions that convinced the Chinese investors to pour in $3.5 billion (around Rs592 billion).

“A monumental decision was taken during the 10th Joint Cooperation Commi­ttee (JCC) on CPEC, held on 23rd September 2021 at Islamabad and Beijing,” Mr Zaidi tweeted while sharing a formal statement of the announcement.

“The two countries agreed to include KCCDZ under the CPEC framework. KCCDZ, an initiative of the Ministry of Maritime Affairs focuses on providing Karachi with an ultra modern urban infrastructure zone, placing Karachi amongst the top port cities of the world.”

The minister also shared animated and picturesque images of a developed KCCDZ, showing a huge developed coastline dotted with multiple buildings, concrete structures and planned neighbourhoods without mentioning their utilities. He claimed all the developments would take place over “reclaimed area of the KPT” spanning over huge 640 hectares or 1581.474 acres.

“Developed on reclaimed area of approximately 640 hectares on the Western back waters marsh land of KPT, KCCDZ will be a flagship project for not only Pakistan but the entire region,” the statement claimed.

[Riaz Haq]

• Coastal comprehensive development zone to be established on KPT’s reclaimed land
• $3.5bn plan envisages new berths for port, new fishery port, harbour bridge to unlock Pakistan’s Blue Economy
• Centre calls the initiative a game-changer for Pakistan

https://www.dawn.com/news/1648433/cpec-panel-okays-ambitious-karach...

KARACHI: Calling it a “game-changer”, the federal government on Satur­day unveiled an ambitious plan to rebuild Karachi’s coastline under the China-Pakistan Economic Corri­dor (CPEC) with $3.5 billion “direct Chinese investment” that aims to overhaul city’s seaboard with new berths for the port, a new fishery port and a ‘majestic harbour bridge’ connecting it with Manora islands and Sandspit beach.

The Karachi Coastal Co­m­prehensive Develop­ment Zone (KCCDZ) — spread over 640 hectares or 1,581 acres on the western backwaters marsh land of the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) leading to revamp one of the oldest city slums Machhar Colony relocating its more than half a million population — is an initiative of the Ministry of Maritime Affairs.

The KCCDZ is the latest addition to CPEC projects aimed at providing Karachi with an ultra modern urban infrastructure zone, placing it among the top port cities of the world.

The announcement came from the top when a key member of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s cabinet sha­red some details of the project and claimed it carried “enormous potential for global investors as well”.

“And the best thing of this project is that it’s solely based on foreign [Chinese] investment without any loan,” said Minister for Mar­i­time Affairs Syed Ali Zaidi while speaking to Dawn.

Also read: Slow pace of work on CPEC irks Chinese companies

“The Chinese work so fast and I guess that it would not take more than five or six years to complete the project. Under the agreed plan, we would relocate some 20,000 to 25,000 families from Machhar Colony and relocate them. Believe me it’s a huge thing for Pakistan. It’s something massive. It would bring multifold advantages to Pakistan’s maritime economy and further strengthen our coastal development.”


He said after assuming the office as the minister for maritime affairs he vigorously looked for the opportunity for the KCCDZ and made all-out efforts to include it in the CPEC projects. For this purpose, he added, he consulted a number of Chinese companies, investors and officials of the neighbouring country and his efforts finally yielded results.

Earlier, the federal minister shared the “monumental decision” on a social me­dia platform, coming up with ske­tchy details of the KCCDZ. He, however, did not explain terms and conditions that convinced the Chinese investors to pour in $3.5 billion (around Rs592 billion).

“A monumental decision was taken during the 10th Joint Cooperation Commi­ttee (JCC) on CPEC, held on 23rd September 2021 at Islamabad and Beijing,” Mr Zaidi tweeted while sharing a formal statement of the announcement.

“The two countries agreed to include KCCDZ under the CPEC framework. KCCDZ, an initiative of the Ministry of Maritime Affairs focuses on providing Karachi with an ultra modern urban infrastructure zone, placing Karachi amongst the top port cities of the world.”

The minister also shared animated and picturesque images of a developed KCCDZ, showing a huge developed coastline dotted with multiple buildings, concrete structures and planned neighbourhoods without mentioning their utilities. He claimed all the developments would take place over “reclaimed area of the KPT” spanning over huge 640 hectares or 1581.474 acres.

“Developed on reclaimed area of approximately 640 hectares on the Western back waters marsh land of KPT, KCCDZ will be a flagship project for not only Pakistan but the entire region,” the statement claimed.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan and China unveil ambitious plan to develop Karachi coast

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Belt-and-Road/Pakistan-and-China-...


KARACHI -- In an ambitious turn, Pakistan and China have agreed to develop the Karachi coast, possibly shifting away from Gwadar as the center stage of the Belt and Road project in Pakistan, following ongoing problems at the southwestern province of Balochistan.

A memorandum of understanding was signed for the Karachi Coastal Comprehensive Development Zone project during the recently held 10th Joint Cooperation Committee meeting of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, after a gap of almost two years.

Based on details shared by Pakistan, China will invest $3.5 billion, separately confirmed by a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, in the project which includes adding new berths to Karachi port, developing a new fisheries port and a 640-hectare trade zone on the western backwater marshland of the Karachi Port Trust. The project also envisages building a harbor bridge connecting the port with the nearby Manora islands.

----------------------------------

The writing was already on the wall for some. In June, Saudi Arabia decided to shift a proposed $10-billion oil refinery to Karachi from Gwadar. This was a major shock to the government's plans of building an energy hub in Gwadar, which is facing massive protests due to lack of water and power.

Now, Gwadar stands to lose even more foreign investment. Karachi is the largest city and the main commercial hub of Pakistan and also home to the busiest port.

Malik Siraj Akbar, a South Asia analyst based in Washington, believes that Karachi offers not only better infrastructure, but also tighter law and order, making it an ideal hub for CPEC. "The Chinese want CPEC to leave its mark as a symbol of rising Chinese power without particular interests in any specific region in Pakistan," he said.

Krzysztof Iwanek, head of the Asia Research Center at Warsaw's War Studies University, said that the challenges of developing a major port in an underdeveloped area like Gwadar must have been factored in by China from the outset.

"[I]t may be assumed that Chinese involvement in Gwadar may be at least partially strategic. Karachi, in turn, is Pakistan's most important port, and, hence, Chinese involvement there may be of purely economic nature," Iwanek said.



Despite the signing of the agreement and expression of commitment from the Chinese side, analysts fear that implementation will be difficult.

Iwanek believes that Belt and Road projects are under scrutiny in China, as funds are no longer distributed so liberally as loans and there is a focus on more feasible projects. He suggested that it will not be easy for Pakistan to draw investments or loans for this project because China is lending with a greater focus on "pragmatism" now.

Arif Rafiq, president of Vizier Consulting, a New York-based political risk assessment firm, shares that view and said that the project had a long way to go.

"Feasibility studies, including on the environmental impact, need to be conducted. The dredging will destroy existing mangroves, which serve as a vital, natural defense against storms and erosion," he said. He claimed that as many as 500,000 people will have to be resettled, which will be a politically contentious process.

Gwadar's sudden fall from grace has implications for wider Belt and Road enterprises. Analysts said that the way Pakistan and China are dealing with Gwadar implies that any problematic project of Belt and Road, irrespective of its potential, can either be dropped or put on the back burner.

"Pakistan and China had an opportunity to develop [Gwadar] port in a conflict zone but several factors, such as corruption, mismanagement, lack of public support and transparency, have led to a loss of interest in the Gwadar Port," said Malik, as he warned that other problematic Belt and Road projects could face the same fate.

[Riaz Haq]

Gwadar airport to be operational by December
$246 million greenfield Gwadar International Airport (NGIA) being built at an area of 4,300 acres

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2360858/gwadar-airport-to-be-operation...


QUETTA:
The test flight from new Gwadar International Airport would be started from December this year as the construction work on site has been expedited, an official of Gwadar Development Authority said on Thursday.

The new $246 million greenfield Gwadar International Airport (NGIA) being built at an area of 4,300 acres would be made operational before the deadline which was September 2023, the official said.

The government has also expanded the 50-bed Pak-China Friendship Hospital Gwadar to 150 beds state-of-the-art medical centre in order to ensure best health care facilities for the people of Gwadar.

The authority would ensure state-of-the-art free medical facility to the inhabitants of the port city of Gwadar from January next year, he said.

The officials were making all-out efforts to expedite the infrastructure and development projects for its timely completion.

The GDA said the authority has expedited the implementation of old town rehabilitation plan of Gawadar to provide best infrastructure and provide every facility to the masses of the port city. With the support of federal government, the project worth Rs3.3 billion for old town rehabilitation of Gwadar was in full swing to develop the city on modern lines to end the sense of deprivation among the people of the area, he addd.

The federal government would be funding 67 per cent of the total cost while Balochistan government would bear the remaining cost for the old town rehabilitation under the Gwadar development plan.

Under the plan, water drainage, supply and distribution of utility projects would be completed soon, besides ensuring the supply of clean drinking water to the dwellers.

The official said the water supply issue in Gwadar would be resolved in the short period of three months as desalination plant is also in progress to cater to the need of whole city.

The authorities have been directed to strictly adhere to Gwadar Master Plan while carrying out development and other public welfare projects in the city.

[Riaz Haq]

The 19.49-km expressway inaugurated on Friday is aimed to meet the urgent need of the locals and promote sustainable development in Pakistan's Gwadar.


https://english.news.cn/20220605/702d5b891f1147cdb95b088673ecf2f1/c...



GWADAR, Pakistan, June 5 (Xinhua) -- The inauguration ceremony of the China-aided Eastbay Expressway of Gwadar port was held on Friday in Gwadar city of Pakistan's southwest Balochistan province.

As an important early harvest project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the 19.49-km expressway was officially started in 2017 by the China Communications Construction Company, with an aim to meet the urgent need of the locals in Gwadar and promote the sustainable development of the area.

Addressing the ceremony, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif thanked China for the grant and said that China has built a very high-quality expressway which links the port to the coastal highway ahead.

It will enhance connectivity and help the transportation of goods from the port all the way to the country's southern port city of Karachi in the future, said the prime minister.

"Pakistan is determined to speed up the development of Gwadar," Sharif said, adding that China has donated solar panels to thousands of families in Gwadar, aided the construction of a hospital and other livelihood infrastructures, and will fund a desalination plant.

On the same occasion, Pang Chunxue, charge d'affaires of the Chinese Embassy to Pakistan, said China attaches great importance to people's livelihood in Gwadar, and is willing to continue promoting the development of Gwadar's healthcare, education, vocational and technical personnel training and other livelihood fields.

Pang said the construction of the expressway aims to benefit the local people, and the concerns of local fishermen were fully considered in the design and construction.

China will strive to continue to help solve local people's problems such as shortage of electricity and fresh water, and promote the construction of a smart, green and modern Gwadar Port, so that local people can share the high-quality development of the CPEC, Pang said.

"It is our joint efforts that ensured the successful delivery of this CPEC project in Gwadar."

"When the New Gwadar International Airport is completed in the future, it will work with the Eastbay Expressway to promote Gwadar as a regional transportation hub and create a better life for the local people," Pang added. ■

[Riaz Haq]

New Gwadar International Airport is a Class 4F airport. It is only the second greenfield airport in Pakistan.

https://youtu.be/6VBF1uIkDx8

The airport's 4C, 4D, 4E, 4F... are the flight zone levels, which are represented by numbers + letters. The number indicates the length of the runway, and "4" indicates 1800 meters or more. The letters indicate the wingspan and wheelbase of the aircraft that can take off and land, from A to F, the larger it becomes.


------------------

Karachi Airport Certified for Aircraft Operation up to Aerodrome Reference Code 4E

---------------------------

Islamabad Airport has been certified for aircraft operation up to aerodrome reference code 4F that allows Airbus A380 flight operations.


The purpose of this AIRAC AIP Supplement is to notify the aviation industry of the aeronautical
ground facilities, navigational equipment and services that are available at Islamabad Int’l airport for
aerodrome reference code 4F Cargo / Commercial Operations. The airport is located at a distance of
14.08NM from Islamabad city.


https://caapakistan.com.pk/Upload/AIS/AIRAC%20AIP%20Supplement%20S-06(18).pdf

[Riaz Haq]

Xinhua Video: New Gwadar International Airport 

https://youtu.be/41pCsOkmBoI

Key Highlights 

Being built by China Airport Construction Company 

Rising Phoenix shape like a wing

4F class---2nd greenfield airport after New Islamabad Airport (longer than 1,800 meters)

3,650 meters long runway

Project started October 2019

Original schedule was for completion in 36 months

Delayed due to pandemic, now expected to be completed by December, 2022

[Riaz Haq]

For a greener and richer Gwadar: B&R Tropical Arid Non-wood Forest Center

http://en.ce.cn/Insight/202206/15/t20220615_37760375.shtml

GWADAR, Jun. 15 (Gwadar Pro) – “In the eyes of outsiders, high temperature and scorching sun may be a disadvantage of Gwadar, but in our view, the light and heat conditions here are a natural advantage for the development of agriculture and non-wood forest”, noted Zhang Saiyang, vice director of the Belt and Road Engineering Research Center for Tropical Arid Non-wood Forest and doctoral candidate of Central South University of forestry and technology, in an exclusive interview with Gwadar Pro.

The Belt and Road Engineering Research Center for Tropical Arid Non-wood Forest was jointly initiated and established by Central South University of forestry and technology, China Overseas Ports Holdings Co., Ltd. and Yulin Holdings Co., Ltd. for Gwadar ecological construction and industrial development. Since 2018, it has systematically improved the local soil conditions in Gwadar. Zhang told Gwadar Pro that the Chinese team combined the organic fertilizer collected from local sheep farm and leaves and other humus to mix with local soil in a certain proportion to improve the fertility and pH of the local soil. Besides, the local soil conditions were greatly improved by the team members planting legumes to use the nitrogen fixation of legume rhizobia.

“In addition to the soil, moisture is our long-term focus as well. With arid climate here, the irrigation method appears to be particularly important,” Zhang said, “after enhancing the soil water retention capacity through soil improvement, we mainly use a combination of sprinkling irrigation and drip irrigation to maximize water conservation. Not to mention that our selected varieties are drought tolerant crop with very developed root systems.”

By now, nearly 100,000 seedlings such as bananas, dates, orchid and figs have been cultivated here. Among them, bananas (Musa nana) are selected local varieties that can adapt to drought and high temperature and produce a large amount of fruit. In May, the center successfully held the first non-wood forest products-banana harvest festival in Gwadar Port. “Our production of bananas has attracted the attention of local farmers, who hope to buy banana seedlings to grow on their own land,” Zhang mentioned.

Moreover, figs are also a key economic crop here. Hundreds of fig seedlings have already produced a lot of fruit in just one month. More than 10 hours of sufficient sunlight per day and the temperature difference between day and night in the Gwadar region allow figs, a drought-tolerant and light-loving plant, to accumulate more sugar. According to the promotion plan, the fresh and dried figs launched by the center will have a place in the market.

“In addition to bananas and figs, which are familiar to Chinese people, the endemic crops of Pakistan, including Sesbania grandiflora and Ziziphus spina-christi, can also give full play to their economic value through our breeding techniques,” Zhang listed the local valuable economic crops one by one, “the leguminous plant Sesbania grandiflora is resistant to high temperature and drought, and has a large amount of fruit. It is a very good tree species for ecological greening and economic forest. Its fruit, as a woody vegetable, has been widely promoted by us in Gwadar, and then sold in the market. The local unique Ziziphus spina-christi is also drought-tolerant and light-loving, which can bear fruit several times a year. The seedling breeding, fresh fruit sales and juice processing of it have also been put on the agenda.”

As for the future planning, Zhang Saiyang mentioned that the center has set up “Gwadar Classroom” to train local workers. Opened in March this year, it has trained the first batch of modern agricultural skilled workers in the local area, laying a solid foundation for the local development of agriculture and non-wood forest industry, as well as promoting farmers’ employment and using their own land to start businesses.

[Riaz Haq]

Can President Ebrahim Raisi turn Iran’s economic Titanic around?
By Nadereh Chamlou

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/can-president-ebra...

According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)—accounted for 1.86 percent of the world’s GDP (PPP) in 1980. By 2021, its share had declined to 0.8 percent. Within the same timeframe, South Korea’s share rose from 0.6 to 1.7 percent and Turkey’s from 1.2 to 2 percent. This means that Iran has lost considerable economic power on the global stage in comparison to where it was in 1980. Economic underperformance combined with a near trebling of Iran’s population has also led to a per capita income that has barely grown in three decades and one that falls short of its comparators.

Low growth, high inflation, and widespread un- or underemployment have diminished the purchasing power of many income deciles, causing widening income inequality. Iranians below the national poverty line have doubled in the past three years, now encompassing 35 percent of the population. There are daily reports of a decline in the purchase of basic food staples, such as a 50 percent drop in meat, dairy, eggs, and fruits. Even more affordable imported rice, rather than the domestic variety, is being sold one cup at a time rather than in bulk as was done before. There is a shortage of affordable housing, and an average of 40 percent of Iranians—and as high as 70 percent in Tehran—are “house-poor,” i.e. spend the lion’s share of their income on housing, leaving them exposed to sudden poverty in case of cost of living shocks. The anxiety about an ever-increasing uncertain future has also created a mental health crisis.

Unemployment among the educated youth is as high as 40 percent, and one in three Iranians is eager to emigrate. Since the revolution, Iran has become a leading country in brain drain. For instance, in just one category and in 1399 alone (the last Iranian calendar year: March 2019-March 2020), some 250,000 nurses left Iran. It’s a critical number for a country with one of the earliest and worst coronavirus outbreaks in the Middle East. Supreme Leader Khamenei has weighed in by issuing a stern warning against those who encourage the skilled to emigrate, calling it treason.

Officials are quick to blame Iran’s economic underperformance on decades of sanctions imposed by the United States, which have indeed impacted and distorted Iran’s economy. Yet, a 2021 paper co-authored by Hashem Pesaran, Iran’s most renowned economist, faults predominantly domestic policies. The study examines foreign exchange fluctuations and output growth as the leading indicators since 1989. It finds that 80 percent of foreign exchange fluctuations and 83 percent of variations in output growth cannot be explained by sanctions. These “most likely relate to many other latent factors that drive the Iranian economy,” writes Pesaran. Indeed, “state-dominated institutions, heavy-handed bureaucracy, and a banking sector plagued with problems are Iran’s self-imposed sanctions,” concurs Roozbeh Pirouz, a British-Iranian entrepreneur.

The Islamic Republic’s economic model, as designed and implemented by its founders, has failed to fulfill in the last forty-three years any of the grandiose promises that Ayatollah Khomeini made to the Iranian people, such as affordable housing, free utilities, and the eradication of poverty.