India's Modi's Policy Blunders and Superpower Delusions

[Riaz Haq]

"If you (India) want to run with the big dogs, you have to stop pissing with the puppies".
 Robert Blackwill, Ex US Ambassador to India

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Top Foreign Policy Advisor Ajit Doval

What Mr. Blackwill said about India back in 2006 still rings true with Modi's foreign policy team's poor handling of Nepal.  In a piece titled "Has Narendra Modi's foreign policy bubble burst", a BBC report summed up the situation in the following words:

"For many in India, Narendra Modi is seen as the country's best brand ambassador. That's quite apparent from his many overseas visits in his first 16 months in office - he has generated plenty of interest, airtime and drawn adulation from the extensive Indian diaspora.
But that may not be enough in sustaining relationships in the neighbourhood, as he is fast finding out."

India's Regional Ties:

There seems to be emerging consensus that Prime Modi's "Neighborhood First" policy he announced at the time of his inauguration last year appears to be on the verge of collapse.

The Hindu Nationalists' foreign policy spearheaded by former RAW Chief Ajit Doval is causing rapid deterioration of India's relations with most of its neighbors ranging in size from China and Pakistan to Maldives and Nepal. Written during Prime Minister Modi's recent US visit, including a large reception given by Indian Americans in Silicon Valley, an opinion piece by policy analyst Jyoti Malhotra concludes as follows:  "So as the prime minister charms America, flanked by his two key aides Ajit Doval and S Jaishankar, the thought surfaces: Let him also spare a thought for India’s crisis-ridden neighbourhood".

India's Biggest Policy Blunder:

India threw away its substantial conventional military edge over Pakistan when the Hindu Nationalist government of Atal Bihari Vajapayee decided to carry out its nuclear tests in 1998.  It gave Pakistan the justification it needed to go nuclear a few weeks later, thereby achieving balance of terror with its much larger neighbor with a huge conventional military.

Indian analyst Krishna Kant explains his country's policymakers blunder as follows: "Nuclear weapons have reduced Pakistan defense cost while we (India) have been forced to spend tens of billions of dollars to acquire latest military hardware in a bid to retain the edge. Its shows in the defence budget of the two countries since 1999 nuclear blasts. All through 1980s and 90s, Pakistan was spending around a third of its government budget and 5-6% of its GDP on defence, or about twice the corresponding ratios for India.

After going nuclear, Pakistan’s defence spending decelerated and its share in GDP is expected to be decline to around 2.5% in the current fiscal year, slightly ahead of India’s 2%. This is releasing resources for Pakistan to invest in productive sectors such as infrastructure and social services, something they couldn’t do when they were competing with India to maintain parity in conventional weapons."

Ajit Doval's Rhetoric Against Pakistan:

Kant argues that the Hindu Nationalists blunders in the past have severely limited India's policy options vis-a-vis Pakistan. Here's how how he concluded his Op Ed in Business Standard: "In this environment, a hard talk by Mr Doval followed by a high-decibel drama by the government on the National Security Advisor’s talk between the two countries seems nothing more than a show for the gallery. The audience may be applauding right now, but claps may turn to boos as the public realises the inconsistencies in the script and the pain it inflicts on the hero."

Summary:

Hindu Nationalists' superpower delusions have led them to policies that are hurting India's position in South Asia region and the world. No amount of hard talk by Ajit Doval can change this fact.  Former Indian Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh has recently said: "India and Pakistan need sustained engagement to realise the vast potential of benefits of liberalisation of trade and investment in the South Asian region." Modi and Doval need listen to Mr. Singh. India's best bet is to engage with Pakistan as well as other neighbors on a sustained basis to deal with the realities as they exist.


Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses the subject with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://vimeo.com/141373288



India-Pakistan Tensions; Kunduz Fall; Delhi Beef Murder; Oregon Sho... from WBT TV on Vimeo.

https://youtu.be/fqqkilJzc4I






Related Link:

Haq's Musings

Modi's Pakistan Policy

Modi in Silicon Valley

Rise of  the Sangh Parivar

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan

Jaswant Singh on India's Foreign Policy's "Strategic Confinement"

Ex RAW Agent Document's India's Successes in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

Fidato
@tequieremos
Sara Adam, who has worked as a data analyst in the CIA, has made a startling claim that India has paid Mullah Yaqoob and the Afghan Taliban $10 million for extra judicial killings of Kashmiris and Sikhs inside Pakistan.

https://x.com/tequieremos/status/1807153558195716216


---------------

Sarah Adams was speaking on Shawn Ryan Show, the video of which was uploaded on 10th June on YouTube. She claimed that India has given the Taliban $10 million and has been taking care of the personal security of Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada (the supreme leader of the Taliban). She claimed that India could also be behind the killings of the pro-Khalsitan elements.

She said: “So I was trying to find the US money but then there’s all these other pots of money right and so then you’re kind of like okay what’s happening with them? India does this thing where they give a little bit of money. I told you how there’s Mullah Yaqoob, Mullah Omar’s son, he has another brother Daud. India kind of works with him and they give him money. It’s just kind of like the little things they do with the Baloch like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan). It’s like the things they do to poke Pakistan. They have that going on which I knew about. Then I heard they gave $10 million to Mullah Yaqoob. They went up a step and it’s like well what’s this 10 million for and what are they doing with it? The 10 million went to fund the Gecko base. I’ve never worked in the Gecko base. So it is now the location of Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada’s personal security.”

Sarah Adams said: “It’s like the Indian government or you know probably Intel service is funding his personal security. This makes no sense and it’s not even tons of money compared to what we’re putting in so I have all these questions. What is India getting and also really what’s the Taliban getting because they don’t give a damn about $10 million? This is going to sound like the craziest thing ever but what the Indians and the Taliban are doing, I kid you not, India is using the Taliban’s network to assassinate Kashmiri militants in Pakistan.”

The ex-CIA officer revealed, “They’re using the Taliban networks and then they’re doing these assassinations. They’re happening all over Pakistan like in Lahore, Karachi and other parts. This is really risky for the Taliban if people find out. It seems like it could rock the boat. They are using their networks and are the Taliban networks that good to take out senior Kashmiri people? Maybe and maybe they’re not. The interesting part and my theory is that India gains what they’re gaining. These are terrorists and some of these guys they wanted for 30 years. I went through a list of 18 of them. I don’t know if they’re all dead. Pakistan could have heard India had come to kill them and put some of them in a safe house. So there are 18 targeted. I went through all 18 to make sure I knew who they were because I’ve worked on Kashmir forever and to see what group they were. I went through all of them and they were the groups you can imagine, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen and the last one was Al Badr Mujahideen.”