Hindu Nationalist RSS Leadership Criticizes Jobless Growth in India

[Riaz Haq]

Akhil Bharatiya Pratinidhi Sabha (ABPS), the top decision-making body of India's RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), says that “the young generation is suffering from unemployment and the pandemic has made things even grim... We cannot turn a blind eye to unemployment. It is a crisis and it needs to be addressed.” The RSS was apparently reacting to the falling labor participation rate in India relative to Pakistan and the global averages. The RSS leadership wants the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to focus on helping small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to create jobs.  RSS likes Modi government's ‘Make in India’ initiative “but it needs to be sharpened even more and get more investment.” The resolution is titled, ‘The need to promote work opportunities to make Bharat self-reliant’. The solution offered by ABPS resolution: Take agro-based local initiatives to promote rural areas and create jobs, according to Ram Madhav, a member of the RSS executive committee. 

Falling Employment in India. Source: CMIE

India's labor participation rate (LPR) fell to 39.5% in March 2022, as reported by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). It dropped below the 39.9% participation rate recorded in February. It is also lower than during the second wave of Covid-19 in April-June 2021. The lowest the labor participation rate had fallen to in the second wave was in June 2021 when it fell to 39.6%. The average LPR during April-June 2021 was 40%. March 2022, with no Covid-19 wave and with much lesser restrictions on mobility, has reported a worse LPR of 39.5%.

Labor Participation Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: ILO/World ...

Youth  unemployment for ages15-24 in India is 24.9%, the highest in South Asia region. It is 14.8% in Bangladesh 14.8% and 9.2% in Pakistan, according to the International Labor Organization and the World Bank.  

Youth Unemployment in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Source: ILO, WB

In spite of the headline GDP growth figures highlighted by the Indian and world media, the fact is that it has been jobless growth. The labor participation rate (LPR) in India has been falling for more than a decade. The LPR in India has been below Pakistan's for several years, according to the International Labor Organization (ILO). 

Indian Employment Trends By Sector. Source: CMIE Via Business Standard

Construction and manufacturing sectors in India have been shedding jobs while the number of people working in agriculture has been rising, according to CMIE. 

Pakistan Employment By Sectors. Source: PBS via Bilal Gilani

It is important to note that Pakistan’s economy has created 5.5 million jobs during the past three years – 1.84 million jobs a year, significantly higher than yearly average of new jobs created during the 2008-18 decade, according to the findings of Labor Force Survey (LFS) as reported by the Express Tribune paper. The biggest jump in share of employment (1.5%) was in the construction sector, spurred by Naya Pakistan construction incentives offered by the PTI government. 

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[Riaz Haq]

Medium Small and Micro Enterprises (SMEs) have always been the backbone of an economy in general and secondary sector in particular. For a capital scarce developing country like India, SMEs are considered as panacea for several economic woes like unemployment, poverty, income inequalities and regional imbalances.

https://www.mbarendezvous.com/more/msme-indian-economy/

The MSME Development act classifies manufacturing units into medium, small and micro enterprises depending upon the investment made in plant and machinery. Any enterprise with investment in plant and machinery of up to INR 50 million is considered as medium enterprise while those having investment between INR1.0 million to INR2.5 million is a small enterprise and one with less than INR1.0 million is a micro enterprise. In service sector, any enterprise with the investment limit of INR1.0 million, between INR 1.0-20 million and of upto INR 50 million is called as micro, small and medium enterprise respectively.

The MSMEs have played a great role in ensuring the socialistic goals like equality of income and balance regional development as envisaged by the planners soon after the independence. With the meagre investment in comparison to the various large scale private and public enterprises, the MSMEs are found to be more efficient providing more employment opportunities at relatively lower cost. The employment intensity of MSMEs is estimated to be four times greater than that of large enterprises. Currently, around 36 million SMEs are generating 80 million employment opportunities, contributing 8% of the GDP, 45% of total manufacturing output and 40% of the total exports from the country. MSMEs account for more than 80% of the total industrial enterprises in India creating more than 8000 value added products.

The most important contribution of SMEs in India is promoting the balanced economic development. The trickle down effects of large enterprises is very limited in contrast to small industries where fruits of percolation of economic growth are more visible. While the large enterprises largely created the islands of prosperity in the ocean of poverty, small enterprises have succeeded in fulfilling the socialistic goals of providing equitable growth. It had also helped in industrialization of rural and backward areas, thereby, reducing regional imbalances, assuring more equitable distribution of national income.Urban area with around 857,000 enterprises accounted for 54.77% of the total working enterprises in Registered MSME sector whereas in rural areas around 707,000 enterprises (45.23% of the working enterprises) are located. Small industries also help the large in industries by supplying them ancillary products.

[Riaz Haq]

Bulk of India’s unemployed population is in the middle-income households that earn between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 5 lakh a year despite the fact that they have the highest labour participation rate among non-rich household groups, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/middle-income-households-...

Citing its Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) data, CMIE said the middle class households accounted for half of the total households and also half of the unemployed and the largest number of unemployed people while the average labour participation rate (LPR) of this group was 43% compared to the overall average LPR was 40.8%. Also, it experiences an elevated unemployment rate of over 9%.

“India’s biggest challenge on the employment front is to provide jobs that yield about Rs 2,00,000 a year to about 16 million unemployed in the middle class households,” CMIE said in its weekly labour market analysis.

CMIE has divided households into five income classes. At the bottom of the income pyramid are households that earn less than Rs 100,000 a year. The next group earns between Rs 100,000 and Rs.200,000 a year and is called the lower middle class. The third group of households earns between Rs 200,000 and Rs 500,000 a year and belong to the middle income class. The fourth earns between Rs 500,000 and Rs 1 million a year and could be classified as the upper middle class and the richest group of house earn more than Rs 1 million in a year.

Further, a little over a third of the unemployed reside in the lower middle income households that earn between Rs 1 lakh and Rs 2 lakh. These households accounted for about 45 per cent of all households and the share of this class in the total unemployed increased from 33% during September-December 2019 to 39.5% during May-August 2021 as a significant portion of this income group migrated to lower income groups during 2021-22.

According to CMIE, the poorest households accounted for 9.8% of all the households and only 3.2% of all the unemployed before the pandemic in 2019-20. However, in 2020-21 and the first half of 2021-22 they accounted for 16.6% of all households but still accounted for only 3.5% of all the unemployed.

The richer households, however, suffer the least pain of unemployment. They account for about 0.5% of all households and contain a similar proportion of all unemployed. Their average LPR at 46.3% is the highest among all income groups.

As per CMIE, their unemployment rate had shot up the most among all income groups but has since declined. It was over 15% during the first wave of the pandemic. But, in 2021, the rate averaged at 5.2%. The employment rate has been mostly over 40% but shot up to 45% during September-December 2021.

“However, even India’s best case employment rate at 45% is much worse than the world average of 54%,” it concluded.

[Riaz Haq]

Subramanian Swamy slams Modi for failing to achieve economic growth

https://telanganatoday.com/subramanian-swamy-slams-modi-for-failing...


Hyderabad: BJP Rajya Sabha MP Subramanian Swamy on Tuesday lashed out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the latter’s failure to achieve targets of economic growth. Terming Modi ‘clueless’ about China, he felt that the national security has also weakened hugely.

“In 8 years in office we see that Modi has failed to achieve targets of economic growth. On the contrary, growth rate has declined annually since 2016. National security has weakened hugely. Modi inexplicably is clueless about China. There is scope to recover but does he know how? (sic)” he tweeted.

Subramanian Swamy’s latest attack on Modi came amidst mew report on the soaring inflation. India’s annual wholesale price-based inflation increased to a record 14.55% in March from 13.11% in February. He also criticised Modi even on China policy. He vehemently disagreed with the Prime Minister for the latter’s claims that China did not occupy Indian territory on eastern Ladakh in the Galwan valley.

When a netizen asked him why he was not advising the Prime Minister, Swamy replied, “Ancient rishis have advised that knowledge should be parted to those who have shradhha to receive it. (sic)”

The BJP Parliamentarian who is known for ‘calling a spade a spade’ as well as his wit, also differed with one of the Modi supporters who said that there was no better alternative to the current Prime Minister. Responding to him, Swamy said, “That is what the British Imperialist said: India will fall apart if British left.”

[Riaz Haq]

Eight-Hour #Power #Blackouts Hit #India After Hottest March on Record. #Coal shortage threatens to exacerbate #energy, #food #inflation. Nomura warns of ‘stagflationary shock,’ drop in factory output. #Modi #BJP #Hindutva #economy #Loadshedding https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/eight-hour-black...

[Riaz Haq]

"Anti-Minority" Image Will Hurt #Indian Companies, Warns Ex RBI Gov Raghu Rajan the day after #bulldozers tore down #Muslim homes & businesses close to a #mosque in #Delhi's Jahangirpuri area. #Modi #BJP #Islamophobia #Hindutva #genocide https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/anti-minority-image-will-hurt-india... via @ndtv

Amid concerns over minorities being targeted in India, former Reserve Bank governor Raghuram Rajan on Thursday cautioned that an 'anti-minority' image for the country can lead to loss of market for Indian products and may also result in foreign governments perceiving the nation as an unreliable partner.
India enters the perception battle from a position of strength, the professor at Chicago's Booth School of Business said, alluding to credentials like democracy and secularism, but warned that this battle is "ours to lose".

The comments came a day after bulldozers tore down several concrete and temporary structures close to a mosque in Jahangirpuri as part of an anti-encroachment drive, days after the northwest Delhi neighbourhood was rocked by communal violence.

Speaking at the Times Network India Economic Conclave, Rajan said, "If we are seen as a democracy treating all our citizens respectfully, and, you know, relatively poor country, we become much more sympathetic. (Consumers say) 'I am buying this stuff from this country which is trying to do the right thing', and therefore, our markets grow."

He added that it is not just consumers who make such choices over whom to patronise, but warmth in international relations too is decided by such perceptions, as governments take a call on whether a country is a "reliable partner" or not, based on how it handles its minorities.

The outspoken academic added that China has been suffering from such image problems because of its treatment of Uighurs and to an extent the Tibetans as well, while Ukraine has seen huge support because President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seen as someone standing up to defend ideas that a democratic world believes in.

The services sector export presents a large opportunity for Indians and the country will have to seize it, Rajan said, adding that we need to be very conscious of the West's sensitivities on privacy.

One of the opportunities which can be leveraged is in the medical sector, Rajan said, warning that being perceived as a country which does not satisfy data security and privacy concerns can make it difficult to succeed.

He also said undermining the constitutional authorities like the Election Commission, Enforcement Directorate or the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) erodes the democratic character of our country.

In other comments on domestic affairs, Rajan said the Indian administration will have to grapple with the challenges of governance by discussing changes with key stakeholders to avoid instances like the three farm laws. The three legislations were repealed last year after protests by farmers.

Meanwhile, Union Minister of State for Information Technology, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who also spoke at the event, blamed IT companies for poor planning, saying this lack of foresight has led to wage inflation in the over USD 230 billion sector.

He also said getting high-quality connectivity to every corner through both wired and wireless connectivity is a policy priority and the ministry is working towards the same.

[Riaz Haq]

#Indian lawmaker arrested after tweet criticizing Narendra #Modi. Jignesh Mevani accused prime minister of idolizing Nathuram Godse, killer of Mahatma #Gandhi. #Hindutva #BJP #Islamophobia #India #RSS https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/indian-lawmaker-arres...

A state lawmaker in India was arrested for criticising the prime minister, Narendra Modi, in a tweet, officials have said, raising concerns over freedom of speech in the world’s largest democracy.

His arrest coincided with the arrival of the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, in the country.

Jignesh Mevani, a prominent campaigner for India’s marginalised low-caste Dalit community, accused the Hindu nationalist leader of idolising Nathuram Godse, the assassin of India’s independence icon Mahatma Gandhi.

Some fringes of the Indian rightwing revere Godse as a hero for killing the man they blame for the partition of India and Pakistan – comments that Modi has criticised in the past.

But Mevani tweeted this week that Modi “worships and considers Godse as God”, accusing the prime minister of fomenting religious division.

He also demanded that Modi apologise for communal violence in Gujarat, where Mevani is a member of the state legislature.

He was arrested on Thursday on accusations of attempting to disturb “public tranquillity and peace”, the police said.

He was taken across the country to Assam in India’s north-east, where the complaint had been filed, and a court in Kokrajhar denied him bail, ordering him to be held in custody for three days.

Freedom of speech is enshrined in India’s constitution and Mevani’s lawyers called the arrest “illegal” and “unconstitutional”.

The tweet in question has been taken down by Twitter in India after a legal complaint.

The police have previously arrested social media users for “provocative” tweets that were critical of Modi or the rightwing government, sparking fears that the government was crushing dissent.

Mevani is believed to be the first elected politician detained on such grounds.

The activist-politician is a vocal critic of Modi’s right-wing politics and rose to national prominence after launching a protest campaign over the flogging of seven Dalits by cow vigilantes – zealots who target Muslims and Dalits to protect the bovines sacred to many Hindus.

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Sectarian violence and rightwing Hindu vigilantism have increased since Modi came to power in 2014, and critics allege the popular leader’s reluctance to condemn radical elements is emboldening them.


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More than a dozen Indian states have witnessed violent clashes between Hindus and Muslims over the past two weeks, with one person killed in Gujarat.

In the capital, Delhi, bulldozers have demolished the homes of Muslims accused of rioting.

[Riaz Haq]

"India Has Its Own Problems": Joe Biden's Side Note On Dictatorships. #Biden clubbed #India in the sentence, which also mentioned #dictatorships. #Russia #China #Modi #BJP #Hindutva #Islamophobia https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/in-joe-bidens-point-about-autocrats... via @ndtv

US President Joe Biden spoke about things that "autocrats fear most" at a fundraising event in the United States on Friday. What stood out was the fact that he clubbed India in the sentence, which also mentioned dictatorships.
Joe Biden also spoke about China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin. On China, he recalled how Xi Jinping once complained to him about the Quad alliance working in the Indo-Pacific in a way that is "against China".

On Putin, Joe Biden said how the Russian leader got "exactly what he didn't want" as "Finland and Sweden too now want to join NATO".

"I indicated to Xi Jinping that I was going to pull together the Quad: Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. He said, 'You're just doing that to affect us.' I said, 'No, it's because we're trying to put together those folks who have an opportunity to work together in the Indo-Pacific'," Biden said during a party fundraiser event at a private residence in Seattle.

"The point being that one of the things that the autocrats fear the most -- and India has its own problems; all those countries have their own problems -- is the notion that somehow we can work together in concert and contrary to what are essentially dictatorships, which a lot of countries have become, particularly not only China but Russia and many other countries...the Philippines," he said.

Joe Biden said when he got elected, Russian president Vladimir Putin thought that he would easily be able to break up NATO. "That's what part of his objective was from the very beginning. And I know I've been saying that for eight years, but it was part of his objective," he said.

"But the irony of all ironies to this...he got exactly what he didn't want. He was looking for the further Finlandisation of Europe. Instead, he got Finland and the President of Finland calling, wanting to see me, wanting to join NATO, and Sweden wanting to join NATO. His action is generating exactly the opposite of what he intended," Biden said.

"I'm not suggesting that that makes things all that easier. But the point is that we have a circumstance where the Ukrainian people are incredibly brave; they're incredibly resolved, not just the military that was trained but the people in the streets," he said.

"They are making a lie of Putin's theory that somehow because they're Slavic in background and many spoke Russian that somehow there would be a welcoming party. The exact opposite has happened," he added.

[Riaz Haq]

India’s auto market at a decade low; 6 red signals, from high fuel prices to chip shortage, stall the road to recovery this year

https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/indias-auto...

HIGHLIGHTS
Over 40% idle capacity in auto industry
Tractor sales down for 7 consecutive months
Motorcycle and entry-level car demand under pressure
Implementation of OBD to increase 2W price by 6%-7%
No major indicator for rural market revival
Commodity prices soar by up to 200%
Fuel prices hover above INR 100/litre
PV exports at a decade low
Increase in booking cancellations
New Delhi: India’s automobile sales in the domestic market nosedived to 17.51 million in 2021-22, lowest since 2012-13 when the total wholesales were at 17.82 million, says the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

Two-wheelers, the worst-hit segment, declined to a decade low in 2021-2022 to 13,466,000 units. It was in 2011-2012 that the two-wheeler sales were close to this number at 13,409,00. In the peak year FY19, the nation's two-wheeler market was at over 21 million units.

The deficit in the ICE two-wheeler is incredibly wide even after adding the electric two-wheelers, including low-speed and high speed, which were at about 3 lakh units. ICE three-wheelers volume also remained at 260,000 units, less than 50% of the peak volumes, while the total installed capacity is over a million units. The electric vehicles are catching up the fastest in this segment with almost 35% penetration.

[Riaz Haq]

Majority of #India’s 900 Million #Workforce Stop Looking for Jobs. #Labor participation rate dropped from 46% to 40% in 5 years. Only 9% of #Indian #women are employed or looking for jobs. #unemployment #BJP #Modi #economy #Hindutva #IslamophobiaInIndia https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-24/majority-of-indi...

By Vrishti Beniwal
April 24, 2022, 4:31 PM PDT

India’s job creation problem is morphing into a greater threat: a growing number of people are no longer even looking for work.

Frustrated at not being able to find the right kind of job, millions of Indians, particularly women, are exiting the labor force entirely, according to new data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt, a private research firm in Mumbai.

[Riaz Haq]

#India NITI Aayog’s first “SDG India - Index & Dashboard 2019-20” report showed that of 28 states/UTs it mapped, #poverty went up in 22, #hunger in 24 and #income #inequality in 25 of those states/UTs. #unemployment #economy #COVID19 #BJP #Modi #Hindutva https://www.fortuneindia.com/opinion/how-many-are-poor-in-india/107883

First, the IMF’s estimation.

The IMF used (i) the HCES of 2011-12 (the fiscal year 2011 for the IMF) as the base and estimated consumption distribution for all the years until 2020-21 (IMF’s 2020) “via the use of estimates based on average per capita nominal PFCE growth” and (ii) also took into consideration “the average rupee food subsidy transfer to each individual” for the years of 2004-05 to 2020-21.

The second factor – taking the money value of subsidised and free ration for 2020-21 – was considered because it said without this any exercise of poverty estimation “solely on the basis of reported consumption expenditures will lead to an overestimation of poverty levels”.

Several questions arise out of this methodology. The first is its extensive use of HCES of 2011-12 while being dismissive of the HCES of 2017-18 (which showed poverty growing). The second is, PFCE maps the consumption expenditure of all Indians, rich or poor, except government consumption (GFCE), and doesn’t tell which segment (income level) of society spends how much – making it impossible to know the status of households, which can be considered for poverty estimation.

The third is about the IMF’s assumption that the subsidised and free ration (which started during the pandemic under the PMGKY) reached two-thirds of the population and that the free ration will continue forever (eliminating extreme poverty). The IMF report cheers the Aadhaar-linked ration cards. None of these assumptions can be taken at face value.

The CAG report tabled in Parliament earlier this month highlighted several flaws in the Aadhaar’s functioning, including 73% of faulty biometrics that people paid to correct, duplications and verification failures. Besides, one year after the mass exodus began in 2020, migrant workers had not received subsidised ration, forcing the Supreme Court to lambast the central government (for its failure to operationalise the App being developed for the purpose and work-in-progress “one-nation-one-ration card” system) and direct state governments to ensure ration to migrants.

And what happens when the free ration is discontinued after September 2022? The decline in extreme poverty would return, wouldn’t it? So, does the IMF believe this amounts to poverty elimination?

On the other hand, the WB report seeks to marry the NSSO’s 2011-12 HCES to private sector data, the CMIE’s Consumer Pyramid Household Survey (CPHS), to inform its poverty estimation.

This is when the WB report admits that (i) the CMIE’s CPHS data is not comparable with the NSSO’s and that (ii) it “reweighed CPHS to construct NSSO-compatible measures of poverty and inequality for the years 2015 to 2019”. It said the CPHS data needed to be transformed into “a nationally representative dataset”.

As for the CPHS data, an elaborate debate about its ability to capture poverty took place last year. Several economists, including Jean Dreze, pointed out “a troubling pattern of poverty underestimation in CPHS, vis-à-vis other national surveys”. Several others accused the CPHS of a pronounced bias in favour of the “well-off”, which the CMIE admitted and promised to look into.

Another question arises from the use of the CPHS.

If a private firm like the CMIE can carry out household surveys every month or every quarter (for example, its employment-unemployment data is monthly) why can’t the government with decades of institutional knowledge and experience and huge human and financial resources?