Have Deadly Monsoon Floods Replenished Groundwater to End Long Drought in Pakistan?

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan has seen unprecedented rains followed by massive floods in the current monsoon season. Hundreds of people have lost their lives and tens of thousands have been rendered homeless. After the unfolding of the tragedy, it's now time for renewal. New green shoots are sprouting in Thar desert, indicating the end of the long-running drought in Pakistan. The large Indus Basin aquifer has been significantly recharged. Groundwater has been replenished to a large extent for many years to come, raising hopes for more water for growing crops and raising livestock.  

Sunset in Lush Green Thar Desert After Monsoon 2022. Credit: Emmanuel Guddu

Greening of Thar Desert in Sindh, Pakistan. Source: Emmanuel Guddu The heavy monsoon rains will help to kick-start the sowing of major Kharif (autumn) crops including rice, cotton, sugarcane and corn after about a month's delay.  “There was 40% less water available for the Kharif season (during May-June 2022),” an official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said while talking to The Express Tribune on Saturday. Earlier in March this year, Pakistan's Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) had said “for the Kharif year 2022, the water availability in canals head will be 65.84 million acre feet (MAF) against last year’s 65.08 MAF”. Recent rains have helped fill up major water reservoirs across the country.  About 150,000 cubic feet per second of water is being released from Pakistan's largest Tarbela dam which is more than the combined irrigation needs of the two provinces.  It is also generating over 3,000 MW of electricity, media reports.

Pakistan Monsoon Rainfall July 2022. Source: PMD

Pakistan Drought Monitor. Source: NDMC, PMD

Pakistan Meteorological Department data shows that Pakistan has seen far more rainfall than normal. About 178 mm of rain has fallen in the country, an increase of 180.5% of normal for the month of July. 

NASA Groundwater Map of August 8, 2022. Source: NASA GRACE

Recent satellite maps from the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) confirm significant groundwater growth in Pakistan. The improvement becomes much more apparent when the latest map is compared with one from 2014.
 

Satellite Groundwater Map of 2014. Source: NASA

Pakistan’s Indus Basin Irrigation System is the world's largest artificial groundwater recharge system, according to the World Bank.  A network of canals dug since the 16th century has recharged the Indus Basin aquifer in Pakistan which now has about 1.2 million tube wells extracting 50 million acre feet of water every year.  NASA satellite maps show that Pakistan is among the places worst affected by rapid depletion of groundwater.  Improved groundwater management is crucial for a healthy, prosperous, and green Pakistan. It appears that the groundwater in the Indus Basin has been replenished to a large extent for many years to come, raising hopes for more water for farmers to grow crops to feed and clothe people and raise livestock. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Groundwater Depletion in Pakistan

Pakistan Water Crisis: Facts and Myths

Water Scarce Pakistan

Cycles of Drought and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan at 75: Economic and Demographic Progress

Dust Bowl in Thar Desert Region

Dasht River in Balochistan

Record Harvest Forecast After Heavy Monsoon in Pakistan

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan floods kill 580 and bring misery to millions
Government accused of inaction as downpours leave schools destroyed, homes ruined, crops failing and cholera on the rise

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/aug/17/pakistan...


More than 580 people have died and thousands have lost their homes across Pakistan as torrential rains batter the country.

An estimated 1 million have been affected by heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides since July as Pakistan endured more than 60% of its normal total monsoon rainfall in three weeks.

Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh provinces have been the worst affected, with heavy rainfall predicted across Pakistan until Friday. At least one man was killed in Karachi on Tuesday as non-stop rains hit Pakistan’s largest city for two consecutive days.

More than 40 people have died in Karachi due to heavy rains since July.

Approximately 200 people have died in Balochistan – Pakistan’s biggest and poorest province – which is suffering its worst floods in more than 30 years. The National Disaster Management Authority said the province had received 305% more rain than the annual average.

Eighteen of Balochistan’s 26 districts have been declared “calamity-hit” by the Provincial Disaster Management Authority. People have been forced to abandon their homes as crops and livestock were washed away across the province. Hundreds of miles of road have been damaged, making areas inaccessible to emergency services.

More than 570 schools have been destroyed, and cholera cases have been reported.

Mohammed Safar’s farm in Lasbela, Balochistan, was washed away when the rains came at on 12 July. It was 9am, and he and his family had to run for higher ground. “If it had flooded at any other time, we might have been washed away like plates in my kitchen. I have lost my home, crops and everything in this flood.”

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Meteorological Department: Weekly Drought Information (15 August 2022) [EN/UR]

https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-meteorological-depar...

During last five days, more light to heavy rainfall events reported from many districts of both Balochistan and Sindh. Due to the recent rains, some urban flooding events were observed. Daytime temperatures were also seen to be dropped in different cities. These recent rains in both provinces has provided significant relief to the drought affected areas.

Rainfall recorded in Sindh and Balochistan during the period 11-15 August, 2022 is as under:

Duration of forecast: 16-22 August, 2022

According to meteorological conditions, in the next week some more rains are expected at different places in Balochistan and Sindh. Recent rains have produced significant effect to the drought affected areas of both provinces. Very little area of western Balochistan is still remained under mild drought-like situation.

Note: More detailed data and analyzed maps may be accessed from the National Drought Monitoring Centre, PMD website: https://ndmc.pmd.gov.pk/new/

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan federal minister for Climate Change, Senator Sherry Rehman said, "Balochistan recorded more than 600 per cent above-normal rainfall during these monsoon spells since mid-June while Sindh received 500 per cent more rain. Major cities are being warned against urban flooding, prolonged electricity outages, and flash floods.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/pakistan-he...

Balochistan in particular has seen uncharacteristically heavy rains during the monsoon season this year. The recent floods in the province triggered by the rains have devastated the homes of thousands of people, especially in the Lasbela District.

While the Meteorological Department on Friday forecast thunderstorms with a few "heavy" to "very heavy" falls and occasional strong winds in several parts of Sindh in the next two days.

Besides, heavy rains over Khuzdar, Lasbela, and Hub districts and over the Kirthar mountain range may create extra pressure on Hub and Thaddo dams and downstream areas.

Heavy falls may create waterlogging and urban flooding in low-lying areas during the forecast period, the Dawn reported.

Earlier, PDMA said that disastrous spells of monsoon rains have led to severe damage on six different highways with 670 km in length and 16 bridges. Additionally, 1,98,461 acres of crops were destroyed amid the natural disaster.

Pakistan federal minister for Climate Change, Senator Sherry Rehman said, "Balochistan recorded more than 600 per cent above-normal rainfall during these monsoon spells since mid-June while Sindh received 500 per cent more rain. Major cities are being warned against urban flooding, prolonged electricity outages, and flash floods."

The effects of climate change continue to exacerbate in the country as it experienced lengthy heatwaves and forest fires, he added.

[Riaz Haq]

#Internet goes down for several hours in parts of #Pakistan. Telecom regulator said: “Due to heavy rainfall and flooding, PTCL’s fiber network is experiencing some technical failures" #monsoon #flooding #Sindh #Karachi #fiber #telecommunications https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/key-pakistani-internet-p...


Internet connectivity was fully restored in central and northern parts of Pakistan on Friday after an hours-long outage caused by heavy rain and flooding, the country’s telecoms regulator said.

Major Pakistani telecom operators previously reported connectivity cuts in some regions, including the capital and other major urban centers, with one company reporting flooding to be responsible for the problem.

“The technical malfunction in data networks that caused internet outages in Pakistan has been resolved,” the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA) said in a statement, adding that all internet services were back to normal.

State-owned Pakistan Telecommunication Company Ltd’s (PTCL) (PTCA.PSX) previously said its fiber network was experiencing errors and users in northern and central regions were facing outage.

“Due to heavy rainfall and flooding, PTCL’s fiber network is experiencing some technical failures,” it said on Twitter.

He later said that the error had been fixed.

PTCL’s problems had a knock-on effect on other service providers, including mobile data.

Telenor Pakistan, backed by Norway’s Telenor (TEL.OL), said its internet network was down due to a network problem at its ISP.

Pakistani users posting on social media say other telecom providers have gone out of business, but there were no statements about other companies’ problems.

Widespread internet outages were reported in the capital Islamabad and the eastern city of Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest urban center, where both fixed broadband and mobile network users reported no connection.

But numerous users reported that Pakistan’s largest telecommunications provider, Jazz, owned by Amsterdam-listed global provider Veon (VON.AS), remained in operation during the outage.

“The Jazz network is generally unaffected by our robust architecture and multiple layers of protection to provide a consistent experience for our users,” Jazz’s head of external communications, Khayyam Siddiqi, told Reuters.

Pakistan, a country of about 220 million inhabitants, has a large and growing number of internet users. According to the PTA, there are 116 million users of 3G and 4G services and 119 million broadband subscribers.

[Riaz Haq]

During the first fortnight of August 2022, very high to High amount of rainfall reported from southern parts of Punjab, Sindh and the areas of Balochistan adjacent to Sindh. Spatial distribution of the rainfall is shown in Fig. 1. The chief amounts of rainfall recorded across Pakistan during the period 1-15 August, 2022 are shown in Table-1 below;

https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-fortnightly-drought-...

Fig. 2 depicts the Percentage Departure of rainfall from normal. Above Normal rainfall received over most of the places in Sindh and adacent areas. Few areas in central, northern and Nokkundi areas in Balochistan received below normal rainfall. Farmers are advised to keep themselves abreast of weather updates and plan field activities accordingly to minimize weather induced losses to matured/cultivated crops.

2. Drought Situation Analysis

Spatial drought analysis results using different indices are represented in Fig. 3. In Balochistan, some areas are facing Moisture stress. Remaining districts of Sindh and Balochistan are facing Moderate and Severe Wet conditions due to very good rains since last month and during this fortnight, while rest of the country have normal conditions.

3. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values during the first fortnight of August 2022 are shown in Fig.4. NDVI values are good in north Punjab and along the Indus belt, depicting the good vegetation over there. low NDVI values are observed in the southern parts of the country, depicting the less vegetation over those areas.

4. Land Surface Temperature (LST)

Land surface Temperatures (LST) during first fortnight of August 2022 represented in Fig. 5. In northern, eastern and central parts of the country, temperatures are decreasing now. Most of the areas in southern and western parts of the country are also showing values of Temperature below 40°C, while central areas are facing temperatures below 35°C. White areas represent no satellite data due to cloudiness.

5. Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI)

Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) derived from MODIS product MOD13A2 (NDVI) and MOD11A2 (LST) is shown in Fig.. 6, which depicts Moderate to Mild drought consitions in Nokkundi and Dalbandin areas of Balochistan, while remaining drought areas got some relief due to good rains during the fortnight in these areas.

[Riaz Haq]

Rain in Thar means food and water for all living creatures. The recent monsoon rains have transformed Sindh’s thirsty Thar desert and its sandy land into a lush blanket of wild grass, and the local farmers are ready to cultivate their land.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1704697

Thar is the sixth largest desert in the world and covers 22,000 square kilometres. Over 900 square kilometres of this land is made up of wildlife sanctuaries. As the sun rises over Thar’s dunes, you can hear the tinkling of small and large bells around the necks of the cows, goats and sheep. Peacocks flutter their mesmerising feathers and wild birds chirp in the cool breeze.

The monsoon brings abundant water not only for livestock but also for the different inhabitants of the region, including night owls, eagles, falcons, rabbits, reptiles, snakes, lizards, deer and endangered vultures.

Most farmers, including Meghwar, still employ traditional farming methods, using donkeys and camels. Fifty-year-old farmer Manthar Nohari’s land is near Meghwar’s farm, and both believe that donkey or camel-driven farming is much more conducive to soil fertility.

On a breezy July morning, Nohari drops millet and cluster bean seeds on his farm using a tube-like tool, locally known as narri. “It is an environment-friendly method of cultivation,” he says.

“Thar needs maximum rainfall for a bumper production of crop, which includes fodder for cattle. We will be ready to harvest major crops such as bajra [pearl millet], guar [cluster bean], moong [mung bean] and keerray saim [moth bean] in three months.”

But, in just a month, fruits and vegetables such as guar, mushrooms, tinda [apple gourd], watermelons, snap melons and wild melons will already be available in the local markets in Mithi, Chhachhro, Diplo, Chelhar, Islamkot, Nagarparkar, Daheli and other adjacent areas in the neighbouring Umerkot and Mirpurkhas districts.

“Rain has revived natural ponds and wells, and we are also collecting rainwater in tanks and reservoirs,” says Danish Kumar, a young student, from Charhail. “It will last us for three to four months for drinking and domestic use.”

WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH

During the dry period, usually from December to May, Tharis survive on the grasses and residue that they have earlier plucked, dried and stored.

“Now that it has rained, fodder is available in abundance,” says Harish Jaipal. “Later in the month, we will collect it to feed the cattle during grass shortage or drought. This way we won’t need to purchase fodder.”

But while this month the climate may have been on their side, that is not always the case. Every year, scores of people are driven to climate migration within Sindh in search of fodder and livelihood because of extreme weather, chronic water shortages and a lack of opportunities.

“Five months ago, I moved with my family and cattle to the Kotri barrage area,” says Allah Danu, a herdsman who owns 30 cows. “But after heavy rains in Thar, we are going back home,” he says. For Allah Danu, who earns a living by selling milk, the desert will always be his home.

But for most of the year it can be an inhospitable home. If it weren’t, many would not move away. Meghwar is happy with the harvest this year. “We will not have to migrate to Kotri barrage [this year] for fodder and growing food,” he says.

Even when nature is on the side of local Tharis, they continue to face other challenges. They are still battling the issue of illegal encroachment of grasslands by powerful landlords, which deplete fodder resources and cause huge losses to those who don’t own land and rely on livestock as a source of income.

[Riaz Haq]

Officials: Floods kill 777 in Pakistan over last 2 months
Officials say flash floods caused by abnormally heavy monsoon rains have killed 777 people across Pakistan since mid-June

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/officials-floods-kil...

QUETTA, Pakistan -- Flash floods caused by abnormally heavy monsoon rains have killed 777 people across Pakistan over the last two months, officials said Monday, as rescuers backed by troops raced against time to evacuate thousands of marooned people.

Since June 14, rain and flooding have affected 1.8 million people, and 317,678 of them were still living in relief camps across the country, according to the National Disaster Management Authority. It said out of the 777 killed, about 300 were reported since Aug. 1.

Authorities are setting up more relief and medical camps in remote areas in flood-hit southwestern Baluchistan, southern Sindh and eastern Punjab provinces, where there is much damage.

Authorities said they had dispatched food, tents and other essential items to almost all those areas, where flood-affected people were waiting for the much-need help for the past week. However, videos circulating on social media suggest many people were still waiting for aid in flood-hit regions.

Floods have also damaged nearly 60,000 homes across Pakistan apart from washing away roads and damaging bridges. It has added problems for the rescuers to teach the flood-affected areas to help the victims.

The monsoon season runs from July through September in Pakistan.

[Riaz Haq]

Saeed Shah
@SaeedShah
China, Saudi Arabia, UAE + Qatar led the $37bn package, expected to be agreed by IMF board on Monday. But the floods are dealing a new financial blow, causing economic damage of at least $10 billion, estimates
@MiftahIsmail
. Over 1,000 people killed.

https://twitter.com/SaeedShah/status/1563885236198449155?s=20&t...

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Pakistan’s government in recent weeks has tied up at least $37 billion in international loans and investments, officials said, pulling the country away from the kind of financial collapse seen in Sri Lanka.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-says-it-has-secured-financing...

The board of the International Monetary Fund is scheduled to meet Monday to consider a bailout deal worked out between IMF staff and Islamabad, under which the lender will provide $4 billion over the remainder of the current fiscal year, which began July 1.

The IMF required the country to first arrange additional funds to cover the rest of its external funding shortfall for the fiscal year. The full package is now in place, according to the Pakistani government.

Despite that vital step, Pakistan’s economic stability is far from assured. Opposition leader Imran Khan continues a fierce campaign against the government to press for fresh elections, while catastrophic flooding from the summer’s monsoon rain will cost the economy billions of dollars.

Among allies, China led the way, providing more than $10 billion, mostly by rolling over existing loans, Pakistani officials said.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is rolling over a $3 billion loan and providing at least $1.2 billion worth of oil on a deferred-payment basis, the officials said. Riyadh announced last week it also would invest $1 billion in Pakistan. The United Arab Emirates will invest a similar amount in Pakistan’s commercial sector, and it is rolling over a $2.5 billion loan.

Last week, the remaining money was secured, with a dash to Qatar by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Finance Minister Miftah Ismail. Doha announced it would invest $3 billion in Pakistan.

“It’s not been easy,” Mr. Ismail said in an interview. “I think Pakistan right now is not in danger of default. But our viability depends on the IMF program.”

As the IMF and allies disburse funds, the balance of payments crisis should ease. But the scale of the flooding from heavier-than-usual monsoon rains means that the country will need more financing than it had planned for, warned the Pakistan Business Council, which represents larger companies.

Mr. Ismail, the finance minister, estimated that the economic impact of the floods would be at least $10 billion. That would amount to around 3% of gross domestic product. Some 30 million people have been affected by the flooding and more than 1,000 killed since mid-June, officials say.

When a new government came to power in April, it had warned that the country was at risk of defaulting on its foreign debt payments. The situation was made worse by the price shock from the Ukraine war, which pushed up the cost of fuel and other imports.

Pakistan is due to make loan repayments of nearly $21 billion in the current financial year. In addition, it needs to cover its current-account deficit, which is officially forecast at $9.2 billion.

The rest of the new funding is aimed at building up foreign currency reserves—now only enough to cover about six weeks of imports—by the end of the fiscal year, officials say.

The IMF didn’t respond to a request for comment.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s government in recent weeks has tied up at least $37 billion in international loans and investments, officials said, pulling the country away from the kind of financial collapse seen in Sri Lanka.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-says-it-has-secured-financing...

Tahir Abbas, head of research at Arif Habib, a Pakistani stockbroker, said that the country’s debt challenge didn’t become as acute as Sri Lanka’s, because its borrowings were owed mostly to other countries or multilateral agencies, which can be more easily renegotiated. Colombo, which defaulted on its sovereign debt in May, had also borrowed heavily from private-sector bondholders.

“We are in a good position. The IMF deal is secured, friendly countries have helped, and global commodity prices are coming down,” Mr. Abbas said.

However, the confrontation between the government and the leader it replaced in April has expanded to the IMF deal in recent days. Mr. Khan’s political party, which runs the governments of two of Pakistan’s four provinces, threatened to undermine the terms of the IMF agreement by not providing funds due from the provinces to the central government.

The opposition is hitting back after the government charged Mr. Khan with terrorism over a recent speech. He also faces a hearing over a contempt of court charge this week. Mr. Khan risks arrest, and being barred from politics, from the cases.

Mr. Ismail also faces calls to renegotiate the program from influential voices within his own party, upset about the austerity measures imposed as part of the program. Gasoline and electricity prices have been raised sharply and government spending reined in. Inflation hit 45% in a weekly official index released on Aug. 25.

The flooding is likely to add to inflation, with 2 million acres of crops affected, as well as hit exports.

The immediate relief effort could cost the authorities at least $1 billion, the finance minister said. Pakistan has appealed for international aid to help cope with the floods, with $500 million promised so far.

[Riaz Haq]

Malik Amin Aslam
@aminattock
@HamidMirPAK
reporting from the #FloodsInPakistan and explains how
@ImranKhanPTI
#10BillionTreesTsunami averted a major human disaster - #Trees acted as a #NaturalDefense and sacrificed while saving human lives

https://twitter.com/aminattock/status/1563803992525783041?s=20&...