Economic Survey: Pakistanis Consuming More Calories, Fruits and Vegetables

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistanis are eating more and healthier foods, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22. Per capita average daily calorie intake in Pakistan has jumped to 2,735 calories in FY 2021-22 from 2,457 calories in 2019-20. The biggest contributor to it is the per capita consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables which soared from 53.6 Kg to 68.3 Kg, less than half of the 144 Kg (400 grams/day) recommended by the World Health Organization. Healthy food helps cut disease burdens and reduces demand on the healthcare system. Under former Prime Minister Imran Khan's leadership, Pakistan succeeded in achieving these nutritional improvements in spite of surging global food prices amid the Covid19 pandemic. 

Pakistan Per Capita Daily Calorie Consumption. Source: Economic Surveys of Pakistan

The trend of higher per capita daily calorie consumption has continued since the 1950s. It has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2735 in 2021-22. The per capita per day protein intake in grams increased from 63 to 67 to about 75 during these years. Health experts recommend that women consume at least 1,200 calories a day, and men consume at least 1,500 calories a day, says Harvard Health Publishing.  The global average has increased from 2360 kcal/person/day in the mid-1960s to 2900 kcal/person/day currently, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) estimates that most women need 1,600 to 2,400 calories, while the majority of men need 2,000 to 3,000 calories each day to maintain a healthy weight. Global Hunger Index defines food deprivation, or undernourishment, as consumption of fewer than 1,800 calories per day.

Share of Overweight or Obese Adults. Source: Our World in Data

The share of overweight or obese adults in Pakistan's population is estimated by the World Health Organization at 28.4%. It is 20% in Bangladesh, 19.7% in India, 32.3% in China, 61.6% in Iran and 68% in the United States.   

Major Food Items Consumed in Pakistan. Source: Economic Survey of P...

The latest edition of the Economic Survey of Pakistan estimates that per capita calories come from the annual per capita consumption of  164.7 Kg of cereals, 7.3 Kg of pulses (daal), 28.3 Kg of sugar, 168.8 liters of milk, 22.5 Kg of meat, 2.9 Kg of fish, 8.1 dozen eggs, 14.5 Kg of ghee (cooking oil) and 68.3 Kg of fruits and vegetables.  Pakistan's economy grew 5.97% and agriculture outputs increased a record 4.4% in FY 2021-22, according to the Economic Survey. The 4.4% growth in agriculture has boosted consumption and supported Pakistan's rural economy.  

Pakistan Growth Indicators. Source: Economic Survey 2021-22

The minimum recommended food basket in Pakistan is made up of basic food items (cereals, pulses, fruits, vegetables, meat, milk, edible oils and sugar) to provide 2150 kcal and 60gram protein/day per capita. 

The state of Pakistan's social sector is not as dire as the headlines suggest. There are good reasons for optimism. Key indicators show that nutrition and health in Pakistan are improving but such improvements need to be accelerated. 

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[Riaz Haq]

Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22: Manufacturing

https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/PES03-MANUFACTURING.pdf

Table 3.8: Production of Automobiles
Category Installed Capacity No. of Units 2020-21(July-March) 2021-22(July-March) %Change
CAR 341,000 106,439 166,768 56.7
LCV/JEEPS/SUV/Pickup 52,000 22,512 32,341 43.7
BUS 5,000 445 459 3.1
TRUCK 28,500 2,509 4,445 77.2
TRACTOR 100,000 36,900 41,872 13.5
2/3 WHEELERS 2,500,000 1,439,535 1,388,669 -3.5
Source: Pakistan Automotive Manufacturer Association (PAMA)

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Table-3.2: Production of selected industrial items of Large-Scale Manufacturing
S# Items Unit Weights July-March % Change % Point Contribution 2020-21 2021-22
1 Deepfreezers (Nos.) 0.167 68,947 84,205 22.13 0.04
2 Jeeps and Cars (Nos.) 2.715 114,617 177,757 55.09 1.41
3 Refrigerators (Nos.) 0.246 928,170 1,024,335 10.36 0.02
4 Upper leather (000 sq.m.) 0.398 13,324 10,966 -17.70 -0.06
5 Cement (000 tonnes) 4.650 37,619 36,543 -2.86 -0.21
6 Liquids/syrups (000 Litres) 1.617 86,212 144,638 67.77 1.30
7 Phos. fertilizers (N tonnes) 0.501 545,612 601,184 10.19 0.06
8 Tablets (000 Nos.) 2.725 20,380,940 14,695,108 -27.90 -0.85
9 Cooking oil (tonnes) 1.476 334,107 370,181 10.80 0.21
10 Nit. fertilizers (N tonnes) 3.429 2,450,066 2,505,757 2.27 0.09
11 Cotton cloth (000 sq.m.) 7.294 786,042 788,285 0.29 0.02
12 Vegetable ghee (tonnes) 1.375 1,087,827 1,060,111 -2.55 -0.05
13 Cotton yarn (tonnes) 8.882 2,577,675 2,594,690 0.66 0.07
14 Sugar (tonnes) 3.427 5,618,976 7,759,825 38.10 2.13
15 Tea blended (tonnes) 0.485 100,566 112,544 11.91 0.06
16 Petroleum Products* (000 Litres) 6.658 - - 2.10 0.01
17 Cigarettes (million No) 2.072 39,473 46,070

[Riaz Haq]

Japanese dairy giant looks to enhance stake in Pakistan's NutriCo Morinaga for $56.6mn

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40185838

Japanese dairy giant Morinaga Milk Industry has sent a conditional offer to ICI Pakistan to acquire an aggregate of approximately 33.3% of the issued and paid-up share capital of NutriCo Morinaga (Private) Limited (NMPL), a subsidiary of ICI Pakistan, from NMPL's existing shareholders including that of ICI Pakistan.

The acquisition is set at an aggregate price of $56.6 million which translates to approximately $2.07/- per share, said ICI Pakistan in its notice sent to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Thursday.

NMPL was a joint venture between ICI Pakistan, Morinaga Milk and Unibrands (Private) Limited to locally manufacture and distribute nutritional formula products, and was recently merged with NutriCo Pakistan (Private) Limited, which was involved in the import and distribution of select products of Morinaga Milk.

The notice read that the Board of Directors of ICI Pakistan has granted an in-principle approval to ICI Pakistan to move forward with the proposed sale/ divestment of 26.5% of its shareholding in NMPL (i.e. partial divestment) to Morinaga Milk, subject to, inter alia, valuation of NMPL and the finalization of definitive agreements, to be presented to the Board of Directors for formal/final approval, if deemed fit by the Board.

ICI Pakistan has also been authorized to enter into a memorandum of understanding for the proposed transaction.

“The offer from Morinaga Milk is a testament to Morinaga Milk's confidence in the Pakistan market and the potential of NMPL to grow and cater to the growing nutritional needs of the children of Pakistan,” read the notice.

“As the owners of the ‘Morinaga' brand, know-how to manufacture the products along with its superior research & development facilities, Morinaga Milk is well-equipped to accelerate the growth of NMPL with the support of ICI Pakistan as a continuing joint venture partner (which shall continue to hold approximately 24.5% of the share capital of NMPL upon the completion of the proposed transaction),” it said.

Moreover, Moringa Milk Industry in its filing to the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Thursday said that the company has been exporting infant and toddler milk to Pakistan since 1978 and sees the South Asian country as an attractive market, boasting the fifth-largest population in the world, with continuing population growth forecast.

“Moreover, the Morinaga Milk Industry brand has gained broad recognition in Pakistan over many years through the export business, giving the Company a high chance of achieving further rapid growth in the Pakistan market.

“By acquiring management control over NutriCo Morinaga ... the company considers that it will be able to capture growth opportunities, leading to the further development of the Morinaga Milk Industry brand infant and toddler milk business in Pakistan and contributing to the growth and health of the consumers of the Company products,” it said.

Back in 2020, NutriCo Morinaga (Private) Limited commenced commercial operations of growing-up formula products at its manufacturing facility in Sheikhupura, Punjab.

At a cost of Rs5.5 billion, the manufacturing facility was the first asset investment by a global Japanese dairy and food company in Pakistan.

[Riaz Haq]

Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21

By Riaz Riazuddin former deputy governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1659441/consumption-habits-inflation

As households move to upper-income brackets, the share of spending on food consumption falls. This is known as Engel’s law. Empirical proof of this relationship is visible in the falling share of food from about 48pc in 2001-02 for the average household. This is an obvious indication that the real incomes of households have risen steadily since then, and inflation has not eaten up the entire rise in nominal incomes. Inflation seldom outpaces the rise in nominal incomes.

Coming back to eating habits, our main food spending is on milk. Of the total spending on food, about 25pc was spent on milk (fresh, packed and dry) in 2018-19, up from nearly 17pc in 2001-01. This is a good sign as milk is the most nourishing of all food items. This behaviour (largest spending on milk) holds worldwide. The direct consumption of milk by our households was about seven kilograms per month, or 84kg per year. Total milk consumption per capita is much higher because we also eat ice cream, halwa, jalebi, gulab jamun and whatnot bought from the market. The milk used in them is consumed indirectly. Our total per person per year consumption of milk was 168kg in 2018-19. This has risen from about 150kg in 2000-01. It was 107kg in 1949-50 showing considerable improvement since then.

Since milk is the single largest contributor in expenditure, its contribution to inflation should be very high. Thanks to milk price behaviour, it is seldom in the news as opposed to sugar and wheat, whose price trend, besides hurting the poor is also exploited for gaining political mileage. According to PBS, milk prices have risen from Rs82.50 per litre in October 2018 to Rs104.32 in October 2021. This is a three-year rise of 26.4pc, or per annum rise of 8.1pc. Another blessing related to milk is that the year-to-year variation in its prices is much lower than that of other food items. The three-year rise in CPI is about 30pc, or an average of 9.7pc per year till last month. Clearly, milk prices have contributed to containing inflation to a single digit during this period.

Next to milk is wheat and atta which constitute about 11.2pc of the monthly food expenditure — less than half of milk. Wheat and atta are our staple food and their direct consumption by the average household is 7kg per capita (84kg per capita per year). As we also eat naan from the tandoors, bread from bakeries etc, our indirect consumption of wheat and atta is 41kg per capita. Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21. The per capita per day protein intake in grams increased from 63 to 67 to about 75 during these years. Does this indicate better health? To answer this, let us look at how we devour ghee and sugar. Also remember that each person requires a minimum of 2,100 calories and 60g of protein per day.

Undoubtedly, ghee, cooking oil and sugar have a special place in our culture. We are familiar with Urdu idioms mentioning ghee and shakkar. Two relate to our eating habits. We greet good news by saying ‘Aap kay munh may ghee shakkar’, which literally means that may your mouth be filled with ghee and sugar. We envy the fortune of others by saying ‘Panchon oonglian ghee mei’ (all five fingers immersed in ghee, or having the best of both worlds). These sayings reflect not only our eating trends, but also the inflation burden of the rising prices of these three items — ghee, cooking oil and sugar. Recall any wedding dinner. Ghee is floating in our plates.

[Riaz Haq]

Global Markets: Rice – Pakistan Export Forecast Rises to Record While Importing More Wheat

https://agfax.com/2022/07/16/global-markets-rice-pakistan-export-fo...

2021/22 Pakistan rice exports are forecast up 450,000 tons to 4.8 million, almost 30 percent higher than the previous year. Favorable export conditions are expected to continue as large stocks, competitive export prices, and strong demand from key markets are expected to spur exports further to 4.9 million tons in 2022/23.

Pakistan retains ample supplies following two consecutive record crops, despite hot and dry conditions delaying the 2022 May/June planting season. The Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts ample monsoon rains which are expected to be beneficial for this season’s harvest.

In addition to favorable weather and market conditions, abundant supplies, and the devaluation of the Pakistani rupee have kept its prices globally competitive. Over the past year, Pakistani rice prices have closely mirrored Indian prices, which have been extremely low for almost 2 years; however, strong export demand has caused Pakistani quotes to spike in recent weeks.

Pakistan’s top export markets include a diverse group of countries to which it exports different rice varieties, including fragrant long-grain basmati, regular milled, and broken rice. In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a major supplier to China, the world’s largest rice importing and consuming country.

In fact, in the first few months of 2022, Pakistan exported more rice to China than Vietnam, the historic top supplier. Pakistan exports both milled rice and broken rice to China, the latter primarily used in feed. Pakistan also exports competitively priced milled rice to East Africa – particularly Kenya, Mozambique, and Tanzania – and neighboring countries in Central Asia, mainly Afghanistan.

Pakistan is also a producer and exporter of basmati rice, a premium product known for its aromatic qualities. Demand for basmati rice has grown in recent years, especially in the European Union and the Middle East. While still facing stiff competition from India, the top global basmati exporter, Pakistan is a significant basmati supplier to the European Union, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom.

Rice is an important food in Pakistan; however, wheat is the principal grain consumed domestically. Unfortunately, the same hot and dry planting conditions that delayed planting of the 2022 rice crop in Punjab and Sindh provinces have adversely affected Pakistan’s wheat production.

This month, Pakistan’s 2022/23 wheat import forecast has been raised 500,000 tons to 2.5 million as the government has aggressively procured international and domestic wheat. Historically, the government intervenes heavily in wheat production, marketing, and trade to ensure sufficient supplies of a commodity critical to food security.

[Riaz Haq]

Banana production increases in Pakistan

https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9400710/banana-production-increa...

The production of bananas in Pakistan has increased during past few years after the successful experiments of tissue culture of Chinese imported plants. Dr. Alam Riaz from the Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC) said Pakistan produced twelve different varieties of bananas from Chinese plants that were imported in 2009.

Riaz said one million plants of these varieties were harvested on the left bank of Sindh province in 2012 and out of these two species provided extraordinary results which were approved by Sindh Seed Council for commercial growth.

“Pakistan is producing 150,000 tons banana per year. Banana production will be increased to 700,000 tons in coming years as the PARC is producing 50,000 and the private sector is growing 500,000 to 600,000 tissue cultured plants every year for commercial yield,” he added.

PARC conducted special banana producing labs in Karachi and Thatha where a single plant was sold for 60 rupees and the commercial sector sold the tissue cultured new variety at 100 rupees per plant, he added.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan: Fruits exports up 27.69%, vegetables up 31.47%


https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9387000/pakistan-fruits-exports-...

The exports of fruits from Pakistan increased by 27.69 percent during the first five months of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period of last year. The exports of fruits during July-November (2021-22) were recorded at $177.316 million against the exports of $138.859 million in July-November (2020-21), showing growth of 27.69 percent, according to the date of Pakistan Bureau of statistics (PBS).

Meanwhile, the vegetable exports from the country also went up by 31.47 percent by increasing from $77.146 million last year to $101.423 million during the ongoing fiscal year.

On year-on-year basis, the fruits exports from the country increased by 62.35 percent by going up from $20.758 million during November 2020 to $33.700 million in November 2021. On month-on-month basis, the fruit exports, increased by 15.25 percent in November 2021 compared to the exports of $29.242 million in October 2021.

[Riaz Haq]

There has been a soaring demand of Edible oil in the global market, which is anticipated to record a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 5.1% to touch a level of around US$ 130.3b by end of 2024. The main contributors to the Edible oils industry are soybean oil and palm oil, which are mainly produced and exported by Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia. One of the leading markets of edible oil in the world is China followed by India, UAE and Pakistan.

https://ir.iba.edu.pk/research-projects-mba/201/

In Pakistan, edible oil is considered as one of the most essential commodities of daily usage. During 1947 to 1960 Pakistan was self-sufficient in edible oils. In 1960, started the import of edible oils and since then its import has been on an increasing trend due to lack of research and development, government polices to support farmers and resistance of import lobbies. Pakistan has been persistently and chronically deficient in its production as around 70% of the national requirement of Edible oil are fulfilled by imports. At the moment, Pakistan is one of the largest edible oil importers in the world with the import figures amounting to more than USD 3bn annually, which is imposing huge pressure on foreign exchange reserves being the 2nd highest import bill after energy import. And alone Palm oil contributes 91 percent of the total edible oil imports

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The objectives of the project include detailed study on Oil-Palm plantation i.e. Oil producing breeds, yield of fruit, environment, labour, land, farming and irrigation techniques; designing the Supply chain for a Palm Oil Extraction plant; developing technical and financial feasibility of a Palm Oil Extraction plant – Land, Labour, Machinery, Utilities etc.; and providing recommendations for future actions based on the outcome of feasibility study.

The project is expected to have manifold benefits in the realm of (1) import substitution, by locally producing different types of Palm oil having a current local demand of around 2.8million tonnes; (2) environment protection by utilizing 95,000 Hectare unused fertile land of Interior Sindh in the farming of oil-palm trees, (3) poverty alleviation by providing small loans to women and poor people in the rural areas to grow oil palm saplings from seeds and sell the saplings to farmers, (4) employment generation for skilled and unskilled workforce when vast area of land will be cultivated with oil palm trees and CPO mills will be installed alongside the plantation (5), promote the halted industrialization in the country by establishing CPO mills,(6) transfer of technology, as when the new plants are set up, our country will eventually be able to replicate and adopt the technology involved in the manufacturing of imported machinery, not only fulfilling the future demands of local industry but also exporting the same to other countries.

The project report is based on financial data and non-financial information obtained from primary and secondary research to create an operational model for Palm oil plantation and extraction in Pakistan. Our research methodology included the literature review, Interviews with experts, field visits, factory visits, Quotations and Comparative Analysis, and review of financial statements of current market players.

Based on our research, visits and interviews it was determined that in Pakistan there are ample opportunities and favorable conditions for growing oil-palm trees. Report findings suggest that Coastal belt of Sindh has proven capability of growing oil-palm trees with a per acre yield comparable to that in major oil palm growing countries due to plenty of fertile land, irrigation water courses, supply of fertilizers, and skilled farmers available in this part of land.

[Riaz Haq]

The (Pakistan) government is working on a policy that will not only reduce dependence on imported palm oil but also facilitate and support farmers to grow oilseed crops, Minister for National Food Security and Research, Tariq Bashir Cheema, said on Tuesday.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1698469

At a press conference, Mr Cheema said the government has decided to take short- to long-term policy measures for the uplift of the agriculture sector, focusing on encouraging the farming community to bring more area under cultivation with the ultimate objective of achieving self-sufficiency in all the major crops and reducing the country’s import bill for certain agricultural products.

The country is currently spending $4.5 billion annually on the import of palm oil, and it is expected that the import bill for this commodity will increase to $6bn next year.

The minister said spending $1bn on the import of three million tonnes of wheat and $6bn on importing palm oil in a year is a big loss of foreign exchange, which is a matter of grave concern.

“The present government has revised the procurement targets for the procurement of wheat by the Punjab government and Passco, which have been achieved. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and the pressure built on the countries of the Central Asian Republic on their exports, the government has attained sufficient wheat stock to avoid the imposition of any emergency,” he added.

The minister said that the support price for wheat, being the important staple food crop, will be announced well ahead of the rabi season so that farmers will be able to have their own production estimates while keeping in view the market trends.

As far as cotton is concerned, Mr Cheema said that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has already formed a special committee headed by Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, to formulate a recommendation as to how to incentivise cotton growers so that the lost area under cotton cultivation should be revived.

The intervention price for cotton will be set keeping in view of the price in the international market so that cotton growers should not face any loss, he said.

As part of the long-term policy measure, the government has decided to solarise all the 1.2m tube wells that are run on electricity. Once solarised, the agricultural tube wells will be 100 per cent free of electricity.

The special committee has proposed that bank financing on easy instalments be offered to farmers, and in this regard, the government is currently negotiating with commercial banks, he said.

He said that all agricultural inputs have been made tax free, and while referring to the availability of tractors, he was of the view that farmers should get tractors from banks on lease financing, as in the case of leasing of vehicles. This will help eliminate the profit of middlemen.

The minister said that Pakistan and China will shortly sign an agreement on buffalo breed improvement.

[Riaz Haq]

With Pakistan's 24 Kg per capita consumption of cooking oil, I am reminded of a
"Panchon unglian ghee (cooking oil) mein", a South Asian phrase describing the image of plenty.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1648260
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It also brings up another South Asian phrase "Aap ke munh mein ghee shakar (sugar)"

Per caput sugar consumption in Pakistan, at about 22 kilograms a year, is slightly above the world average and compares to India's per caput use of 15 kilograms. If the consumption of non-centrifugal sugars were added, apparent consumption would be much higher.

https://www.fao.org/3/x0513e/x0513e23.htm

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Sugar consumption per capita reached 21.1 kg in 2019 in Pakistan, according to Faostat. This is 2.41% less than in the previous year.

Historically, sugar consumption per capita in Pakistan reached an all time high of 25.8 kg in 2008 and an all time low of 1.80 kg in 1961.



https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/sugar-consumption-per-capit...

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Generally, centrifugal, and non-centrifugal brown cane sugar show a superior nutritional value and bioactive molecule content compared to refined white cane sugardue to the molasses content and the process requiring less refining on different products.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/1/460/htm

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s total oilseed use to hold steady in 2022-23 | World Grain

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/16662-pakistans-total-oilseed-...

Imports of soybean, canola and palm oil are expected to hold steady at 3.4 million tonnes. No growth is expected in edible oil imports for 2022-23 and are forecast at 3.7 million tonnes(accounting for 70% of total cooking oil consumption in Pakistan). Soybean and rapeseed imports for 2022-23 are forecast to remain on par with the previous year at 2.6 million and 0.8 million tonnes, respectively. While facing significant price pressure and potential for disruption in supplies from key exporters, palm oil is forecast to remain the major imported oil, with imports forecast at 3.6 million tonnes.