Demography is Destiny

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan has the world’s sixth largest population, seventh largest diaspora and the ninth largest labor force. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit of The Economist Magazine

With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan is well-positioned to reap what is often described as "demographic dividend", with its workforce growing at a faster rate than total population. This trend is estimated to accelerate over several decades. Contrary to the oft-repeated talk of doom and gloom, average Pakistanis are now taking education more seriously than ever. Youth literacy is about 70% and growing, and young people are spending more time in schools and colleges to graduate at higher rates than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Vocational training is also getting increased focus since 2006 under National Vocational Training Commission (NAVTEC) with help from Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.



Pakistan's work force is over 60 million strong, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. With increasing female participation, the country's labor pool is rising at a rate of 3.5% a year, according to International Labor Organization.

With rising urban middle class, there is substantial and growing demand in Pakistan from students, parents and employers for private quality higher education along with a willingness and capacity to pay relatively high tuition and fees, according to the findings of Austrade, an Australian govt agency promoting trade. Private institutions are seeking affiliations with universities abroad to ensure they offer information and training that is of international standards.

Trans-national education (TNE) is a growing market in Pakistan and recent data shows evidence of over 40 such programs running successfully in affiliation with British universities at undergraduate and graduate level, according to The British Council. Overall, the UK takes about 65 per cent of the TNE market in Pakistan.

It is extremely important for Pakistan's public policy makers and the nation's private sector to fully appreciate the expected demographic dividend as a great opportunity. The best way for them to demonstrate it is to push a pro-youth agenda of education, skills development, health and fitness to take full advantage of this tremendous opportunity. Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity that could be extremely costly for Pakistan and the rest of the world.

Working Age Population Growth in Pakistan. Source: UNFPA

 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistanis Study Abroad

Pakistan's Youth Bulge

Pakistani Diaspora World's 7th Largest

Pakistani Graduation Rate Higher Than India's

India and Pakistan Contrasted in 2011

Educational Attainment Dataset By Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee

Quality of Higher Education in India and Pakistan

Developing Pakistan's Intellectual Capital

Intellectual Wealth of Nations

Pakistan's Story After 64 Years of Independence

Pakistan Ahead of India on Key Human Development Indices

Working Women in Pakistan

Pakistan Youth Roundtable

Scholarships at Foreign Universities

Institute of International Education--Open Doors

UK's Higher Education Statistics Agency Report

Austrade on Education in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

Germany is hoping to combat its shortage of skilled workers with a new ‘opportunity card’.

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/09/06/skilled-workers-are-in-d...

The ‘chancenkarte’ will use a points system to enable workers with required skills to come to Germany more easily.

It is part of a strategy proposed by Labour Minister Hubertus Heil to address the country’s labour shortages, which is due to be presented to the government this autumn.


Every year, quotas will be set depending on which industries need workers. Three out of four of the following criteria must also be met to apply for the scheme:

A degree or vocational training recognised by Germany
Three years’ professional experience
Language skills or a previous stay in Germany
Under 35 years old
Currently, most non-EU citizens need to have a job offer before they can relocate to Germany. A visa for job seekers already exists, but the 'chancenkarte' is expected to make it easier and faster for people looking to find work in Germany.

Citizens of certain countries with visa agreements can already enter Germany for 90 days visa-free but are only permitted to take up short-term employment.

The opportunity card will allow people to come and look for a job or apprenticeship while in the country rather than applying from abroad. Applicants must be able to prove they can afford to pay their living expenses in the mean time.

The exact details of the scheme are yet to be formalised.

Why does Germany need to attract skilled workers?
This year, the shortage of skilled workers in Germany has risen to an all time high. Earlier this year, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found 1.74 million vacant positions throughout the country.

In July, staff shortages affected almost half of all companies surveyed by Munich-based research institute IFO, forcing them to slow down their operations.

[Riaz Haq]

From #Singapore to #Thailand, #Asia courts talent for post-#COVID #economic boost. Battle for high-skill workers is not just an #Asian phenomenon, but a global one. #UK has launched a new system called High Potential Individual visa for university grads.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/From-Singapore-to-Th...

TOKYO/SINGAPORE/BANGKOK -- During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore tightly closed its borders. While many countries did the same, it was a sharp shock to the system for a city-state that had thrived as a hub for travel and as a magnet for foreign workers.

As some foreign nationals left, and entries were largely halted, Singapore's population dropped by 4.1% over the year through June 2021, to 5.45 million.

The latest data released on Sept. 27, however, shows nearly as swift a turnaround, thanks to a gradual lifting of restrictions. The population rebounded by 3.4% to 5.63 million, largely driven by workers in sectors like construction and shipyards -- the unsung labor that keeps the economy going.

Now, Singapore hopes to attract more highly skilled professionals with expertise and ideas that could jolt growth in the post-COVID era. "This is an age where talent makes all the difference to a nation's success," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual National Day Rally speech on Aug. 21, days before his government announced a new type of visa designed to lure such people. "We need to focus on attracting and retaining top talent, in the same way we focus on attracting and retaining investments."

The city-state is far from the only place that covets high-flyers. From Thailand to Taiwan, a competition is heating up to entice the best of the best, and to fill hiring gaps with people equipped to excel in today's pandemic-altered workplace.

Innovative sectors like digital technology and biotechnology are especially hungry for talent.

Singapore's latest carrot is called the Overseas Networks and Expertise (ONE) Pass, a new visa for high-skill professionals who earn at least 30,000 Singapore dollars ($20,800) a month. The program will allow people with these visas to stay at least five years and work at multiple organizations.

Thailand, meanwhile, began taking applications on Sept. 1 for a new visa that lets global professionals stay in the country for 10 years. The government hopes to bring in 1 million foreign nationals with the Long-Term Resident (LTR) visa, designed for those with skills in targeted sectors such as electric vehicles, biotechnology and defense.

Tourism-oriented Thailand, like Singapore, has been hit hard by travel disruptions. Both also have aging populations. While Singapore is expecting growth in the 3% to 4% range this year, the Asian Development Bank's latest outlook forecasts Thailand's growth rate at 2.9%, far below Indonesia's expected growth of 5.4%, Malaysia's 6% and Vietnam's 6.5%.

Malaysia, for its part, aims to attract wealthy investors with its new Premium Visa Program. The program, which began accepting applications on Saturday, allows people who can deposit 1 million ringgit (about $215,000) in the country and have an annual offshore income of around $100,000 to stay for up to 20 years. During that time, they can invest, run businesses and work.

As part of a broader move to bring in more human resources, Australia recently raised its annual permanent immigration cap to 195,000 for the current fiscal year, from 160,000.

[Riaz Haq]

Why are women in #China not having more babies despite gov't incentives? With rapidly #aging and declining #population and slowing #economic growth, China’s leaders are asking #women to have three children again, but it's too late. #economy #fertility https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/17/why-are-women-in-china-not-h...

Fewer people might mean slower growth in China, which will be felt by the U.S. and beyond.

“They’ve now become, you know, the center of the global manufacturing superhighway and are typically the largest contributor to growth every year,” said Scott Kennedy with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C.

Chinese officials often credit the so-called one-child policy for preventing over 400 million births, but some analysts say China’s population would have declined regardless.

“It’s just simply a rule across all countries, that as you urbanize, and as you get a more educated female population that enters the workforce, fertility numbers fall,” Kennedy said.

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The number of Chinese workers is already declining; according to the World Bank, in 2001, China had 10 workers to support one retiree.

“In 2020, that was down to five working folks for each retiree and by 2050 it’ll be down to two,” Kennedy said.

He believes China still has time to offset the effects of population decline, including by boosting productivity, increasing the retirement age and lifting restrictions on people from rural areas to freely settle in cities with their families.

“I don’t think the problem has become so severe that demography is destiny, and China is destined to radically slow down and its chances of becoming an economic superpower breaking out of the middle income trap have been dashed,” Kennedy said.

“[But] these are pretty significant challenges.”


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28-year-old Joy Yu’s parents each had three siblings. As they were growing up in the 1970s, the Chinese government started to limit the number of babies born.

Government statistics show on average a woman in China went from having about three babies in the late 1970s to just one.

Four decades on, China’s leaders are asking women to have three children again, which doesn’t sit well for Yu, an only child.

“For me to give birth to three children, my future husband must be rich enough to make sure I can live well without a job. This is a big challenge,” Yu said.

Last year, China’s population dropped for the first time in six decades by 850,000. That still leaves the country with 1.41 billion people but if the decline continues, there will be multiple impacts on the economy.

China began enforcing birth limits in the late 1970s when the country was poor and there were too many mouths to feed.

In a Chinese propaganda film called the Disturbance of Gan Quan Village, the birth restrictions were justified on economic grounds.

“We should put our energy into getting rich rather than keep having children,” says one woman in the film.

She’s sitting among a group of women picking corn kernels off the cob. “Aren’t we getting poorer with each child we have,” she says. The rest of the group nods in agreement.

Chinese leaders enforced, sometimes brutally, the so-called one-child policy in 1979, just as the country was coming out of the tumultuous Cultural Revolution.

“The post-[Chairman] Mao leadership thought that economic development would be the new basis for the party’s political legitimacy and based on pseudo-scientific and demographic projections, limiting birth to one child per married heterosexual couple,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.

There were exceptions. Some ethnic minority groups could have up to three children. People from rural areas could try for a second child if their first-born was not a boy. Later, if both parents had no siblings they could have two children. Starting in 2016, China raised the birth limit for everyone to two children, but there was no sustained baby bump.

[Riaz Haq]

UK Adds 226 New Visa Categories to Urgently Hire Skilled Workers

https://propakistani.pk/2023/05/18/uk-adds-226-new-visa-categories-...

Exciting opportunities have emerged for Pakistani youth seeking employment abroad as the United Kingdom opens its doors to skilled workers from around the world, including Pakistan.

In response to the severe manpower shortage currently faced by Britain, the country has introduced a significant expansion in its immigration policies.

According to official reports, a total of 226 new immigration categories have been established, accompanied by a noteworthy increase in the minimum wage across all job categories.

This development marks the first time that professions such as police officers, journalists, judges, secret officers, barristers, lawyers, and flight pilots have been included in the immigration category. Furthermore, an additional 31 categories have been designated, encompassing diverse fields such as musicians, dancers, doctors, actors, and scientists.

The expanded opportunities extend beyond specific professions, as drivers, instructors, railway station assistants, air hostesses, cabin crew, veterinary doctors, and tailors are now eligible to pursue employment in the UK. Moreover, individuals with expertise in areas such as masonry, aircraft engineering, AC/fridge engineering, welding, charity work, and estate agency will also find potential avenues for relocation.

Students pursuing education in the UK can now benefit from the post-study work facility, which allows them to gain valuable work experience following the completion of their studies. Notably, highly-educated professionals can anticipate a substantial 20 percent increase in their remuneration, as highlighted in the official letter.

To facilitate the approved manpower shortage category, the UK government has taken steps to keep visa fees at a reasonable level, ensuring accessibility for individuals seeking employment opportunities in the country.

These progressive changes in the UK’s immigration policies provide an encouraging prospect for skilled workers from Pakistan and around the world. The reduced visa fees and the inclusion of a diverse range of professions reflect the British government’s commitment to addressing the pressing shortage of manpower while simultaneously welcoming talented individuals to contribute to the country’s workforce.

Aspiring professionals from Pakistan are encouraged to explore these newfound possibilities, which not only promise career growth but also cultural exchange and personal development. The opportunities available in the UK cater to a wide spectrum of skills and talents, fostering an environment where individuals can thrive and make significant contributions to their chosen fields.

With these favorable policy revisions, Pakistanis can now embark on a transformative journey, utilizing their expertise to build successful careers and establish meaningful connections in the United Kingdom.

[Riaz Haq]

Aging Japan wants foreign workers, but will they come?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Aging-Japan-wants-fo...

TOKYO -- With Japan's population shrinking, the world's third-largest economy is becoming more serious about accepting foreign workers.

Yet various factors -- from the country's sluggish wage growth and old corporate cultures to Asian peers' new visa programs and rising pay levels in emerging economies -- pose challenges to Japan's efforts, clouding its prospects in an age of global talent competition.

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Yamada of the Japan Research Institute said developed nations are scrambling to attract IT talent, "but Japan lags behind because of its lower pay."

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the average wage in Japan rose only 3% between 2001 and 2021. That compares poorly to South Korea's 40% and the U.S.'s 29% in the same period. The median salary for software engineers in Japan last year was 23% lower than that of Singapore and 17% lower than in Seoul, according to data from Levels.fyi, an online site that compares tech salaries.

Elsewhere in the region, the race to attract foreign talent has been intensifying after the COVID-19 pandemic, with many jurisdictions offering new programs. Singapore this year launched a new visa to lure highly skilled professionals, allowing those earning at least 30,000 Singapore dollars ($22,000) a month to stay five years and work for multiple employers.

Thailand and Malaysia are among the other nations that also have introduced new visa programs permitting longer stays by professionals in areas like electric vehicles and investment. Elsewhere, highly skilled workers are increasingly wanted, reflecting digital transformations and the emergence of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence.

An OECD study on migrant workers published in March found that New Zealand, Sweden and Switzerland are the most attractive countries for highly skilled workers. The study took into account factors such as educational standards, ease of obtaining citizenship for children of migrants and English proficiency as drivers attracting talent from abroad.

[Riaz Haq]

Dependency ratio is the ratio of children (under 15) and retirees (65 and above)) to working age (15-64 years) people in a population. Countries with high dependency ratios tend to perform poorly relative to countries with low dependency ratios in terms of economic growth.

A recent NY Times article by Lauren Leatherby titled "How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World" uses charts and graphics to show how the world economic landscape will change during the rest of the century.

It shows that Pakistan will join the top 10 countries with highest share of working age population and lowest dependency ratios.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/16/world/world-demograp...

Pakistan will join top 10 countries in working age population in 2050

Bangladesh is already in the top 10 working age population countries today.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/16/world/world-demograp...


Countries are categorized as having large working-age populations if people between the ages of 15 and 64, an age group commonly used by demographers, make up at least 65 percent of the total population.

Countries where at least a quarter of the population is under age 15 and where less than 65 percent of the population is working age are categorized as having a large young population. Countries are categorized as having a large old population if those age 65 and older make up more than a quarter of the population.

Unless noted otherwise, graphics include all countries with a population of at least 50,000 people.

The world’s demographics have already been transformed. Europe is shrinking. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation.

But what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning.

The projections are reliable, and stark: By 2050, people age 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them.

In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get.

As a result, experts predict, things many wealthier countries take for granted — like pensions, retirement ages and strict immigration policies — will need overhauls to be sustainable. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say.

This is a sea change for Europe, the United States, China and other top economies, which have had some of the most working-age people in the world, adjusted for their populations. Their large work forces have helped to drive their economic growth.

Those countries are already aging off the list. Soon, the best-balanced work forces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to U.N. projections. The shift could reshape economic growth and geopolitical power balances, experts say.

[Riaz Haq]

China to Establish Over 22 Centers of Excellence for Technical Training in Pakistan

https://propakistani.pk/2024/12/05/china-to-establish-over-22-cente...

China is set to establish over 22 Centers of Excellence in Pakistan to provide advanced technical and vocational training, along with Chinese language proficiency.

The initiative was solidified through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Pakistan’s National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC) and China’s TANG International Education Group.

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UK and Middle East to launch 280 skills centers in Pakistan

https://www.nation.com.pk/06-Oct-2024/uk-and-middle-east-to-launch-...

The Government of the United Kingdom, along with Middle East institutions, plans to create 280 skills centers across Pakistan, aiming to provide jobs to millions of Pakistanis worldwide. A high-level British delegation is currently on a two-day visit to discuss cooperation in education, focusing on Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET).

The delegation includes notable figures such as Lord Boateng, House of Lords member Wendy Thomson, University of London Vice-Chancellor, University of Greenwich Vice-Chancellor Professor Peter Edward, Queen Mary University Deputy Vice-Chancellor Professor Richard Grose, City and Guilds Regional Director Tony Degazon, Dr. Aamir, and GEMS Middle East Executive Director.

The visit aims to initiate skill development aligned with industry needs in Pakistan. Representing the Pakistani government were Federal Secretary Education Mohiyuddin Wani, Chairperson of the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC) Miss Gulmina Bilal, and the Executive Director of NAVTTC.

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EU, Germany to fund skills training centres

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2498709/eu-germany-to-fund-skills-trai...

ISLAMABAD:
In a significant move to enhance youth employment opportunities in Pakistan, agreements were signed to transform select Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutes into four Centres of Excellence (CoEs) in Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

These centres aim to provide state-of-the-art skills training to youth, aligning with modern labour market needs through the provision of advanced equipment, updated curricula, and professionally trained teachers. This initiative is part of the EU's Global Gateway initiative, which focuses on leveraging public and private sector investments for global development.

Co-funded by the EU and Germany, the project is implemented by GIZ and the British Council, in collaboration with Pakistan's National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC). The broader goal is to strengthen the TVET sector, enhancing employability among the youth, especially in regions facing socio-economic challenges.

EU Delegation's Deputy Head to Pakistan, Philipp Oliver Gross, stressed the role of the Centres of Excellence in empowering Pakistan's youth, particularly women. He noted, "Pakistan's youth are its greatest asset. To unlock their potential, especially for young women, we need to create an environment where they can thrive. The EU is committed to supporting TVET for inclusive and sustainable growth."

The signing ceremony was attended by several officials including Secretary of Education Mohyuddin Ahmad Wani, European Union Deputy Ambassador Philipp Oliver Gross and representatives from NAVTTC and the provincial governments of Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.