CPEC to Add 2.5 Million Jobs, Boost Pak GDP Growth to 7.5%

[Riaz Haq]

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is expected to add over 2 million direct and indirect jobs to Pakistan's economy and boost the country's GDP growth rate to 7.5%.

Jobs & Economic Growth in Pakistan: 

US-based consulting firm Deloitte and Touche estimates that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects will create some 700,000 direct jobs during the
period 2015–2030 and raise its GDP growth rate to 7.5%,  adding 2.5 percentage points to the country's current GDP growth rate of 5%.

Pakistan Country Report in Shamghai Business Review Feb/March 2016

An additional 1.4 million indirect jobs will be added in supply-chain and service sectors to support the projects.  An example of indirect jobs is the massive expansion in Pakistan's cement production that will increase annual production capacity from 45 million tons to 65 million tons, according to a tweet by Bloomberg's Faseeh Mangi. Other indirect jobs will be in sectors ranging from personal services to housing and transportation.

CPEC Benefits for Pakistan & China: 

The CPEC will open doors to immense economic opportunities not only to Pakistan but will physically connect
China to its markets in Asia, Europe and beyond, according to the Deloitte report.

Almost 80% of the China’s oil is currently transported from the Middle East through the Strait of Malacca to Shanghai, (distance is almost 16,000 km and takes 2-3 months). With Gwadar port in Pakistan becoming
operational, the distance would reduce to less than 5,000 km. If all goes well and on schedule, of the 21
agreements on energy– including gas, coal and solar energy– 14 will be able to provide up to 10,400
megawatts (MW) of energy by March 2018. According to China Daily, these projects would provide up to
16,400 MW of energy altogether.

India's War on CPEC: 

The biggest challenge that CPEC faces today is India's well-orchestrated effort to sabotage it. Not only are Indian leaders on record as opposing CPEC, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his right-hand man Ajit Doval have unleashed a concerted effort to try to make it impossible.

Mr. Modi has openly expressed support for Baloch separatists and Ajit Doval has talked about Pakistan "losing Balochistan". A serving Indian Navy commander Kulbhushan Yadav has been arrested working undercover to wage covert war in Pakistan.

RAW Money Flow:

India has opened up a big money money spigot to use its agents to destabilize Pakistan. RK Yadav, an ex intelligence official of RAW, has in a TV interview (Siyasat Ki Baat with RK Yadav video 6:00 minutes), talked about RAW agents with "suitcases and cupboards full of money".

Ex RAW chief A.S. Dulat has said "money goes a long way" in intelligence operations.

Current National Security Advisor has talked about RAW recruiting terrorists with one-and-a-half times the money they are making from other sources.

RK Yadav has, in his book "Mission R&AW",  written about RAW money paid to late Pakistani politician Khan Abul Wali Khan in 1970s. He's also confirmed the existence of RAW-inspired 1960s Agartala Conspiracy that recruited Shaikh Mujib ur Rehman's Awami League to work for Indian intelligence.

More recently, London Police documents have revealed the testimony of MQM leaders Muhammad Anwar and Tariq Mir confirming that Altaf Husain received money from Indian intelligence.

Modi's Campaign to Isolate Pakistan:

While RAW is busy funding terror in Pakistan, the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi has launched a diplomatic offensive to have Pakistan declared a "state sponsor of terror". It's intended to deflect attention from Indian Army's brutality against innocent Kashmiris and to cover up his own proxy war of terror to sabotage CPEC in Pakistan.

Summary:

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a game-changer for Pakistan. It will build power plants and other infrastrastructure, boost Pakistan's GDP growth to 7.5% and add millions of new jobs to bring prosperity to Pakistan. Indian Prime Minister Modi is very unhappy about it and he has launched a multi-pronged concerted effort to sabotage CPEC by using covert wars and diplomatic offensives to hurt Pakistan. Can Pakistan defeat Indian plans and succeed in building a prosperous future? That is the big question. The answer depends on how well Pakistanis can unite to make it happen.

Here's a video by Gaurav Garg explaining why India wants to sabotage CPEC:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd_z9kf8AeE




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Modi's Covert War in Pakistan

ADB Raises Pakistan GDP Growth Forecast

Gwadar as Hong Kong West

China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor

Indian Spy Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Ex Indian Spy Documents RAW Successes Against Pakistan

Saleem Safi of GeoTV on Gwadar

Pakistan FDI Soaring with Chinese Money for CPEC

[Riaz Haq]

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important consensus reached by the Chinese and Pakistani governments and of great significance in enhancing bilateral connectivity, improving people's livelihood and fostering pragmatic economic and trade cooperation.

"It was reported by an Urdu newspaper recently that the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan informed Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and KP government that the western route doesn't exist in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This is untrue," remarked a spokesperson in Chinese Embassy in a statement here on Wednesday.

He said China and Pakistan had put in place a sound mechanism of communication and coordination on the development of CPEC.

On November 12, 2015, the 5th meeting of Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) of CPEC approved the principle of "one corridor with multiple passages", aiming at directly benefiting the socio-economic development of Pakistan, especially the western and north-western regions and providing effective connectivity to Gwadar Port, he added.

The spokesman said the Monographic Study of Transport Plan, approved in the 5th JCC, clearly mentions that Burhan-D.I.Khan-Quetta-Sorab section would provide much needed connectivity between major connection points of CPEC and would connect the western areas of Pakistan.

He said CPEC was for Pakistan as a whole and would bring benefits to all Pakistani people including people from the western parts.

With the joint efforts of both sides, CPEC projects are running well throughout Pakistan, and the CPEC is being comprehensively implemented. He said, CPEC projects in the western parts of Pakistan are making progress. A number of livelihood projects have also been implemented.

"We are committed to join hands with Pakistan to make continuous headway on the CPEC and deliver benefits to the people as early as possible," he added.

http://dailytimes.com.pk/islamabad/06-Oct-16/cpec-projects-in-weste...

[Riaz Haq]

#Russia Think Tank Analyst Andy Korybko: #India’s Hatred of #Pakistan Sabotaging North-South Corridor. #CPEC #China
http://katehon.com/article/indias-geopolitical-hate-pakistan-sabota...

Nobody could have expected that India’s Prime Minister would have used the occasion of celebrating his country’s 69th anniversary of independence to provocatively talk about the state of Baloch affairs in Pakistan. Modi went out of his way to say that some members of this ethnic group “thanked [him], have expressed gratitude, and expressed good wishes for [him]…expressed appreciation for Prime Minister of India, for 125 crore countrymen”. This was an obvious suggestion that the Pakistani Baloch have more loyalty to India and identify its citizens – and not Pakistan’s --- as their “countrymen”, which was a premeditated infowar attack meant to incite further discord within the country just a week after a suicide bomber killed dozens of members of this community in a high-profile attack. Modi’s surprisingly aggressive and very clear intimation that he supports Baloch separatism in Pakistan is bound to lead to a problem sooner than later in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan right next door, which just so happens to host the Indian-financed port of Chabahar that forms the crucial and irreplaceable terminal for the North-South Corridor. This presents a developing threat for Iran and Russia, both of which are depending on stability in and around Chabahar to ensure the long-term strategic viability of the ambitious transcontinental corridor that will eventually connect South Asia with Western Europe by means of their transit territory. 


India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), its version of the CIA, has been actively working to destabilize Balochistan for decades, and one of its key operatives was even caught in the region earlier this year and admitted to preparing terrorist attacks there. Despite India’s red-handed involvement in stirring up trouble in the province, New Delhi officially refused to admit that it had anything to do with events there, which makes Modi’s patently obvious appeal to Pakistani Baloch separatists all the more unexpected and totally contradictory to the country’s previous public stance on the issue. It’s unmistakable that the Indian “deep state” (permanent military-intelligence-diplomatic bureaucracy) intends to escalate tensions inside of Pakistan as ‘payback’ for the protests that have been rocking Indian-administered Kashmir for the past month and a half, and the country’s media is all too eager to assist, having gone overboard in their characteristic jingoism by even comparing Balochistan to Bangladesh. Modi and his subservient favor-currying media outlets thereby discredited all legitimate local grievances that the Baloch might have peacefully held against Islamabad, such as complaints about the lack of provincial infrastructure and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s (CPEC) focus on Punjab, but resolving these issues was never India’s intention to begin with.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan PM #NawazSharif rushes to end #energy shortages ahead of 2018 poll. #loadshedding #PMLN http://reut.rs/2dY81Rj via @Reuters


Power supplies are not the only factor that will decide any poll. A further escalation in tensions with nuclear-armed rival India could destabilize the government, as could Islamist militant violence or street protests.

But Sharif has greater control over energy supply, and his government has spent billions of dollars building liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, pipelines and dams, while private investors are financing wind and solar.

A major coal and two small nuclear plants are also due to come online before Sharif's term ends.

The power projects, coinciding with the biggest road building program in Pakistan's history, are central to Sharif's strategy to win the 2018 poll by promoting infrastructure as evidence of economic progress.

Pakistan's sputtering economy has rebounded in recent years, helped by lower global oil prices and improved security.

Chinese companies are arriving in force after Beijing outlined plans in 2014 to invest $46 billion in road, rail and energy infrastructure linking western China with Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast, with two-thirds of the money earmarked for energy.

STALLED REFORMS

The drive to boost generation above 17,000 megawatts (MW) and plug a 6,000 MW deficit has already yielded some results. Shortages in big cities, which two years ago went without power for 12 hours a day, are down to about six hours.

Sharif vowed last month that all scheduled outages would end before the next election, likely to be in May, 2018. His office said generation would hit 26,000 MW, a 3,000 MW surplus.

There are fears, including within Sharif's own ruling PML-N party, that the room for error has shrunk to zero and the ambitious targets could be missed, especially after two big hydro projects were delayed.

"There are a lot of moving parts with all these projects," said one Western diplomat in Islamabad. "The government has a comprehensive plan, but obviously there is some nervousness about the timelines."

Halting outages would breathe fresh life into Pakistan's economy, which needs to expand above 6 percent per year to absorb new entrants into the job market from a fast-growing population of 190 million people.

Economic growth hit 4.7 percent last July-June fiscal year, the fastest pace of expansion since 2008. Economists estimate energy shortages shave up to 2 percent off annual growth.

Some energy experts say Sharif's electricity goals are within reach.

The Asian Development Bank, lending Pakistan more than $1 billion to help alleviate the energy crisis, expects load shedding, or scheduled outages, will be eradicated by mid-2018.

SCARED TO PRIVATIZE?

Sharif's opponents, however, say the government is so fixated on boosting power generation that it has ignored reforms, like privatizing distribution companies, that would modernize the market and lower the cost of electricity.

Many Pakistani businesses complain about the price of power. Lahore barber Eijaz Ahmed, forced to down tools for several hours every day, fumes about spending up to 60 percent of his revenues on electricity.

"I cannot spend money on my children's education because I have to pay (expensive) electricity bills," he said, as his staff sat idle, waiting for power to return.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan's 3rd 340 MW #Nuclear Power Plant at #Chashma Goes Into Operation


http://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-chinese-built-nuclear-reactor/355...


Pakistan has connected its new, largely Chinese-built nuclear reactor to the national grid as part of broader plans to overcome long-running crippling power shortages.

The facility is located at Chashma, a town in the central province of Punjab, where China has constructed two other nuclear reactors, known as Chashma-1 and Chashma-2. They went into operation in 2000 and 2011 respectively, supplying 600 megawatts of electricity to the grid.

The so-called Chashma-3 project, with an installed capacity of 340 megawatts, was inaugurated “on trial basis” this past Saturday, according to a spokesman for the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC).

“After performing various safety and functional tests, the plant will attain full power in first fortnight of December 2016,” Shahid Riaz, told VOA Monday.

Canada helped Pakistan build its first nuclear power plant 44 years ago in the southern port city of Karachi, which Riaz said is currently generating around 80 megawatts of electricity.

Other projects

Pakistan is also constructing another two plants in Karachi with China’s help at a cost of around $10 billion scheduled to be completed by 2021, with a combined capacity of around 2,200 megawatts. Under the agreement, Beijing will also provide enriched uranium for fuel.

Islamabad’s so-called Energy Security Plan envisages a nuclear power production of around 8,800 megawatts by 2030 and 40,000 megawatts by the year 2050.

The deepening nuclear cooperation between the traditionally close allies comes amid reservations that Pakistan is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which binds member nations to ensure fissile materials are not used for making weapons.

Islamabad dismisses any such concerns.

Pakistan tested nuclear devices in 1998 in response to similar tests by arch-rival India. New Delhi also refuses to sign NPT.

Pakistani authorities maintain that all of their civilian nuclear facilities are under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and the country “voluntarily” observes a moratorium on nuclear testing.

Analysts see growing nuclear cooperation between the two countries as a response to the 2005 commercial deal between the United States and India.

Islamabad has since been unhappy about what it and criticizes it as a discriminatory U.S. approach and has been seeking a similar deal with Washington. Beijing sees the growing U.S.-India nuclear axis as a geopolitical challenge.

Beijing is also investing billions of dollars to build an energy corridor to link Western China and Pakistan’s southern deep-water port of Gwadar in the Arabian Sea. The $46 billion so-called China-Pakistan Energy Corridor (CPEC) will see construction of road and rail networks as well as power projects producing thousands of megawatts of electricity to help Pakistan overcome its energy crisis.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan’s economy: powering ahead with rising investments, improving security & stability. #CPEC @GlobalCapNews http://www.globalcapital.com/article/b100tz98y8qr7q/pakistans-econo... …

A frontier market that was flirting with insolvency just three years ago, is now in rude
health. Investment is flooding into Pakistan from China, the West and the Gulf, attracted by
high returns, rising stability and an economy underpinned by strong growth figures and a
pro­ business government.

Pakistan’s economy is on a tear, growing at its fastest pace since the bubble years of the mid­
2000s. According to projections from the International Monetary Fund, the economy is set to grow
by 5.0% in 2017, up from 4.7% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2015. Emerging markets­ focused investment
bank Renaissance Capital tips gross domestic product to expand by an average of 4.4% a year
over the four years to end­ 2017, against a median of 2.8% over the five years to end­n2013.
At every level, there are signs of marked improvements in one of South Asia’s most vibrant
markets. Global institutions, attracted by the high yields on offer, are snapping up Pakistan
securities listed at home and abroad.
China is pumping billions of dollars into vast infrastructure projects that will open up the country’s
northern borders, allowing locally made goods, from cotton and textiles, to raw and produced food
products, to potash and fertiliser, to be shipped overland, into Central Asia and Russia, and
beyond.
Deepening markets
Pakistan’s efforts to widen and deepen its capital markets, and to foster the creation of an
innovative, knowledge­ based economy, are gaining traction. The country is rapidly becoming a key
provider of niche IT services, with upstart companies in Karachi and Lahore bursting with freelance
software coders, programmers, and application developers. The primary equity capital markets are
returning to action. An initial public offering completed in September by Loads Limited, saw the
auto parts maker raise $20m from local and foreign investors; more stock sales are expected in the
months ahead.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan: #Asia's Next Growth Engine- Nikkei Asian Review. Next11. Young Demographics. Growing Work Force Dividend.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Pakistan-Asia-s-nex...

despite its troubled image, Pakistan is gradually emerging as an economy with significant growth potential.

It is one of the "Next 11" countries identified as the next emerging forces after BRICS -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Pakistan's inclusion is predicated on a population of 190 million, making it the sixth most populous country in the world.

In addition, Pakistan's young population is growing, meaning that it is likely to enter a period of "demographic dividend," in which the percentage of the workforce against total population rises to high levels for the next four to five decades, helping to accelerate economic growth.

------


MSCI, a prominent provider of stock indices, announced in June that it will reclassify Pakistan into its Emerging Markets Index from the Frontier Markets Index, having downgraded it in December 2008

Apparently MSCI has a renewed positive view on the country now that it has maintained solid economic growth on the back of continued loans from the International Monetary Fund and falling oil prices, and that its stock market has been on a steady rise.

Provided safety concerns continue to be addressed, Pakistan has the potential to become one of Asia's growth engines.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan’s moment of opportunity Op Ed by visting #IMF Chief Chiristine Legard. #investment #debt #growth #exports https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/159423-Pakistans-moment-of-opportu... …

In this mixed global environment, Pakistan cannot rely exclusively on its trading partners to support growth. This means that the country will have to lean on the strength of its own policies. Four priorities are central.

First, make the economy more resilient. With uncertain global prospects, the economy needs to prepare for potential shocks that may come down the road. At 65 percent of GDP, Pakistan’s public debt remains too high, with too many resources going toward interest payments instead of public investment, education, and other growth-enhancing areas. The task at hand is to continue improving public finances while accumulating international reserves. In parallel, social safety nets need further strengthening to protect the most vulnerable segments of society.

Second, raise growth. Pakistan can grow at faster rates than the current 4-5 percent per year. This will require higher investment and greater productivity growth. Public investment in infrastructure can help remove obstacles to economic activity, and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a very good opportunity. With careful management of its financing arrangements, it can be a transformative success. Yet, the private sector also needs to step up in strengthening economic prospects.

Today, private investment in Pakistan accounts for only 10 percent of the economy – much below the average of 18 percent for emerging markets. Completing energy sector reforms and improving governance and the business climate will be crucial to enable faster private sector growth.

Third, the quality of growth matters. Economic growth in itself is not enough unless its fruits are broadly shared among the population. Two dimensions are very close to my heart: education and gender issues. More than six million children of primary school age, including 3.5 million girls, are currently out of school. Higher spending on public education is clearly important, but so are improvements to the quality of education. The country needs to ensure access to opportunity for all segments of society and equip its people with the skills needed for tomorrow’s job market.

Similarly, with only a quarter of women participating in the labour force, Pakistan can add significantly to its growth potential by integrating women better into the economy. This will make growth not only more inclusive, but also higher. IMF studies have shown that closing the gender gap could boost Pakistan’s GDP by almost one third.

Finally, believe in the global system. Pakistan’s exports are only about a quarter of what they could be based on the experience of emerging markets. There is vast untapped potential to trade with neighbours and integrate into global value chains. A sustained focus on regional and international engagement can help realise this potential.

I am confident that Pakistan can seize this moment of opportunity and transform itself into a dynamic, vibrant, and integrated emerging market country. Over the coming years, a stable and vibrant economy that creates sustainable jobs and spreads the fruits of growth more widely can be a strong force for overall domestic stability. The same applies to trade and cross-border investments, which tend to bring people together in the pursuit of mutual economic advantages, and can provide a stabilizing force in the region.

[Riaz Haq]

Just went through this special report. The section o loans provides some useful information about the interest rates charged by Chinese

1- CPEC Fiber Optic Link (2%)
2- Orange Line (2.5%)
3- Gwadar's development (reduced to 0% from original 1.76%) on a loan 757Million USD
4- Energy projects financed at (5-6%)

more details on

http://www.fwo.com.pk/news-info/latest-news/430-cpec-special-report...

Original Source: Shanghai Business Review Country Report on Pakistan Feb/March 2016

[Riaz Haq]

Dailytimes | #CPEC to initiate flurry of economic activity in #Pakistan: #BASF - http://go.shr.lc/2eGkL2v via @Shareaholic

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would help initiate a flurry of economic activity in Pakistan, said Tay Jui Seng, an official of the German Chemical giant - BASF.

Talking to the media along with Faisal Akhtar, the head of BASF Pakistan, Seng said he would report back to his company as to how the BASF can participate in spurring the business activities in the Pakistani market.

Tay Jui Seng, who is the Business Management Transportation Performance Materials Vice President for Asia Pacific, is based at BASF's manufacturing facility in Shanghai. He undertook a three-day visit to assess the market as well as the opportunities available in Pakistan.

Seng pointed out that the BASF has research facilities based in many countries of the world and has been coming up with innovative products from time to time through research and development (R&D). BASF was in a position to provide quick solutions to the requirements of the businesses in Pakistan, which is an emerging market, he added.

He stressed that Pakistan can also benefit a lot from its human resource especially by imparting right type of education and training to productive use of their talent, energy and potential.

Seng also indicated that the BASF regularly trains their people from time to time to enhance their technical skills and know-how to serve customers more efficiently. He said that his company could also consider as to how it can participate in the CPEC activities through the supply chain mode.

Seng also referred to the impressive growth of the automotive industry in Pakistan and especially in the two-wheelers market. He hinted that cooperation may also be extended by the BASF for the construction industry as well as in chemicals and polymers and also address the quick solutions that are required towards the growth phenomenon in Pakistan.

Faisal Akhtar on the occasion said that Tay Jui Seng's visit augurs well and indicates towards the company's interest for further collaboration in the growth process in Pakistan where the business environment is now quite conducive.

It may be pointed out that the BASF Chemicals and Polymers Pakistan Limited has changed its name to BASF Pakistan (Private) Limited effective from November 1, 2016. A communication said that the management under its new name assures all its customers of the same continuous commitment to support businesses with products and services.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan #cement sales up 16% in October on #infrastructure development. #CPEC https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/163071-Cement-sales-up-16pc-in-Oct... …

Cement sales rose 15.88 percent month-on-month in October due to a rise in infrastructure development in Pakistan; although its exports fell almost two percent in the same month on a declining share in the Afghanistan’s market, industry data showed on Monday. 

The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) data showed that domestic sales stood at 3.008 million tons in October, while exports were recorded at 0.518 million tons. Total cement dispatches stood at 3.527 million tons, depicting a growth of 12.87 percent month-on-month (MoM). 

An association’s spokesperson said the industry’s capacity utilisation logged at more than 92 percent in October.

In October, exports to Afghanistan decreased 23.4 percent year-on-year (YoY) to 0.193 million tons. Exports to India increased 27 percent YoY to 0.110 million tons in the same month. 

Despite Pakistan-India tension, the growth was surprising. The spokesperson, however, said the uptrend might not continue given the unabated border skirmishes.

Cement exports to India are mainly through Wagah border and southern coast of India.

The data showed that cement sales grew 11.26 percent in the first four months (July-Oct) of the 2015/16 fiscal year. Exports also increased 9.57 percent in the same period. 

In July-Oct, exports to Afghanistan slid 11.74 percent, while those to India climbed 101.88 percent. 

The industry official expressed concern over a sharp rise in coal prices, impacting the cost of production. Coal price, which stood at $54/ton in May, increased to $105/ton. 

Manufacturers urged the government to take measures to boost the investment in real estate sector and housing construction. 

Currently, the cement industry is mostly depending on infrastructure development projects. 

“A sustained growth in housing construction is essential to absorb the additional capacities that would be operational in the next two years,” the official said. 

Insight Securities, in one report, said the local cement industry unveiled 23 million tons of expansion plans with around $2.5 billion investment.

Alone Lucky Cement, the country’s leading cement producer, announced to raise its production capacity by 1.25 million tons. A Chinese firm is also mulling to entering the market through a possible acquisition, indicating a jump in output.

The officials said local cement makers are planning an expansion to retain the market share. 

The $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, comprising a wide range of infrastructure development, gave a rise to construction activities.

The growth in housing apartment constructions around the country also increased the cement intakes.