Construction Boom Resumes in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

Renewed construction boom in Pakistan has helped the nation's cement producers significantly increase their sales and profits. Year-over-year, income at Lucky Cement, Pakistan's largest producer of building materials,  is up 33% while DG Khan Cement, second largest cement company, has quadrupled its profits.

Source: Credit Suisse Report on Pakistan Cement Sector

Cement production, an important barometer of national economic activity, was up 8% in 2011-12, according to a research report compiled by a Credit Suisse analyst.

CS analyst Farhan Rizvi says in his report that "higher PSDP (Public Sector Development Program) spending has led to a resurgence in domestic cement demand in FY12 (+8%) and with increased PSDP allocation for FY13 (+19%) and General Elections due in Feb-Mar 2013, domestic demand is likely to remain robust over the next six-nine months".

Nagan Chowrangi Interchange in Karachi

 Ongoing public sector projects include new large and small dams, irrigation canals, power plants, highways, flyovers, airports, seaports, etc. Most of these were already in the pipeline when the PPP government assumed control in 2008. Recent pre-election increases in PSDP funding allowed work to resume on these projects in 2011-12.

In addition to public sector infrastructure projects, there is a lot of privately funded real estate development activity visible in all major cities of the country. Big real estate developers like Bahria Town and Habib Construction are developing both commercial and housing projects in Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore. Other cities like Faisalabad, Hyderabad, Larkana, Multan, Mirpur, Peshawar and Quetta are also seeing new housing communities, golf courses, hotels, office complexes, restaurants, shopping malls, etc.

Artist's Rendering of Sheraton Islamabad Golf City Resort

 Credit Suisse is bullish on Pakistan's cement sector in particular and Pakistani shares in general.

CS analyst Farhan Rizvi has initiated coverage with "an OVERWEIGHT stance, as we believe compelling valuations, improving domestic demand outlook, better pricing power and easing cost pressures make the sector an attractive investment proposition. Despite better growth prospects (3-year CAGR of 17% over FY12-15E) and improving margins, the sector trades at an attractive FY13E EV/EBITDA of 3.8x, 49% discount to the historical average multiple of 7.4x. Moreover, FY13E EV/tonne of US$74 is approximately 29% discount to historical average EV/tonne of US$104 and 50% discount to the region".

Another CS analyst Farrukh Khan, based in Credit Suisse’ Asia Pacific
headquarters in Singapore,says in his research report that “liquidity in 2012 has been concentrated in stocks offering positive
earnings surprises (e.g., United Bank, Lucky Cement, DG Khan Cement and
Bank Alfalah), enabling them to be strong outperformers. With further improvements in
liquidity, we expect a broad-based price discovery to take hold in
attractively valued oil and fertilizer stocks as well.”

 A string of strong earnings announcements by Karachi Stock Exchange
listed companies and the Central Bank's 1.5% rate cut have already helped the KSE-100 index gain 32% in US dollar terms year to date.

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[Riaz Haq]

Sheikh Arshad took round of the Expo hall and discussed the matters related to construction activities with the stall holders. In the end, he distributed souvenirs among the participants and the organisers of the Dream Home Expo 2015.

The visitors also appreciated the Jang Media Group efforts for creation of awareness and consultancy for the general public regarding the purchase of land or house of their dream through Dream Home Expo. They enjoyed food at food courts, children enjoyed puppet show and entertainment games there. The representatives of the companies who established their stalls provided consultancy and guideline to the visitors about their future land purchase and investment. The stall holders of big builders, real estate, home appliances, paint, and furniture brands told the visitors that how they can amicably utilise their budget. They vowed to participate in future Expo of Jang Media Group too.

The participants of the Expo were Izhar Monnoo Developers, Athar Marketing Network, Eden Housing Ltd, Paradise Holdings, Bahria Town, Start Marketing, Fast Marketing, Green Land Housing, Orient Group of Companies, Super Asia, SA Garden, Royal Residencia, NM estate, Athar Associates, Ali Saqlain Real Estate & Builders, Haroon Estate, LDA City, Brighto Paints, Hapilac Paints, Master City Gujranwala, Honesty Estate, Boss Furniture, Hayat Lahore, Sheranwala Heights, Sonica-Chawla Group, Venus, G M Cable, City Estate, Alfa Estate, Value Group, Royal Estate and others. It is pertinent to mention here that the Dream Home Expo 2015 was opened by the Punjab Minister for Excise & Taxation Mian Mujtaba Shuja-ur-Rehman.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-5-353427-Dream-Home-Expo-2015...

[Riaz Haq]

Large turnout at Jang Dream Home Expo in #Karachi #Pakistan #Housing https://shar.es/16xZ4k via @sharethis

70 organisations including real estate, building marketing companies take part in expo that will run for three days; Chandio terms event interesting 

KARACHI: The enthusiasm of the people who turned out at the Expo Centre here at the inauguration of the Jang Dream Home Expo was remarkable.

The Jang Dream Home Expo, in which 70 organizations including real estate building marketing companies are taking part, will run for three days. On the occasion of the inauguration ceremony, the provincial Adviser for Information, Moula Bakhsh Chandio, saidthat nobody has rebelled against the Federation but only reservations have been expressed. He said that the expo will promote the construction sector. He said he felt happy being at an event other than a political function.

All the big brands of the country’s construction industry are taking part in the Jang Dream Expo being held at the Karachi Expo Centre from January 8 to 10. Overall, along with building, real estate, construction marketing companies, over 70 companies of house financing are taking part. These are Bahria Town, Star Marketing, Real Marketing, Frontline Marketing, G Marketing, Hyder Ali & Co., Gulberg Green, Gohar Group, LDA City, Safari Enclave and others.

No doubt, the presence of builders, developers and other companies relating to the construction sector under one roof is a very attractive feature for the people, and that accounts for the fact that a very large number of people turned up at the expo on the very first day.

The companies participating in the expo have declared it to be a very successful event. Not only the entry to the three-day Jang Dream Home expo is free but the administration has also offered a very attractive feature for the people, and that feature concerns distribution of keys made of gold. Under the scheme, 60 keys will be distributed daily. A large number of people were seen on Friday dropping the gold key coupons into the boxes.

Meanwhile, talking to the media on the occasion of the inauguration ceremony of the Jang Dream Home Expo, provincial adviser on information Moula Bakhsh Chandio said that the PPP government has not rebelled against the Federation, but it had just expressed its reservations. "Nawaz Sharif is our Prime Minister as well. This is our country, and we will highlight the areas where there are issues to be resolved. We want a continuation of democracy. In fact the Sindh-Federation issues are due to the fact that democracy is not very strong. When democracy becomes strengthened such issues will evaporate."

He dispelled the allegations vis-à-vis horse trading of Karachi’s local bodies’ representatives and said that the PPP government has accepted the mandate of everyone. Responding to a question about the Jang Dream Home Expo, Moula Bakhsh Chandio said that such exhibitions will give a tremendous boost to the construction sector.

“I hope that a large number of people will visit the expo,” he said. "It is a very good opportunity for the people to directly come into contact with the developers and builders under one roof. The event organised by the Jang Group will speed up economic activities, dozens of related industries will get a boost and people will get job opportunities."

The provincial adviser on information said that the Sindh government will try its best to resolve the issues faced by the builders. He also said that the government will play its part in the provision of gas, water and other amenities.

- See more at: http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/89078-Large-turnout-at-Jang-Dream-H...

[Riaz Haq]

What lies behind the gates of #Pakistan's growing elite gated communities? #construction #housing #Cement #Steel http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153455 

Inside the gates, the never-ending sectors and undulating roads, the scarce traffic and abundant space can be extremely disorienting. If you are a first-time visitor, you can be forgiven for thinking this expansively designed neighbourhood is Islamabad’s actual twin city, and Rawalpindi just an unplanned appendage.

Driving on Bahria Town’s carpeted tarmac is a fairly docile affair after negotiating the violent potholes and sadistically narrow roads that pervade most of Pakistan. The sculptures of farm animals dotting the roundabouts stay mercifully in place, unlike the free roaming cattle outside. These are merely the fringe benefits of buying an accommodation in what could easily be called Pakistan’s most self-sufficient and luxurious gated community.


There is a riding range for those who have always felt congested city streets do not offer enough galloping room for horses. There is a golf course for those who have never been particularly fond of stirrups and there is a cinema with reclining sofas for those who don’t even like walking. There are health clubs, hospitals, playgrounds and even a cricket stadium in Phase 8, a phase bigger than the first six phases combined. So large, in fact, that it’s possible to take a wrong turn while traversing it and end up in New York somehow. For, beyond an avenue lined with palm trees, there is a Statue of Liberty looking just as confused about being there as you might be about seeing her. There is also an imitation Eiffel Tower on the other end of the same phase. Because, well, why not?----

While Bahria Town has expanded to other cities (the one in Lahore has been functional for a while and construction has started in Karachi and Nawabshah, and is expected to start soon in Hyderabad and Peshawar), the one next to Rawalpindi/Islamabad is still the oldest and most densely populated. It claims to be housing 100,000 people as of now.

Early residents remember it largely being a jungle even 10 years back. The visual trajectory from green to grey has been rapid; one week there would be four-legged creatures running around and the next week four-wheeled vehicles.

Realtors say they primarily deal with business people or retired civil and military officials. The former because they don’t need to hit a nine-to-five job in city centres — which can be a very long commute from Bahria Town; the latter because they get service benefits which they can use or sell to buy a house in this enclave. Selling a service allotment in Islamabad, for instance, will comfortably pay for a house in Bahria Town. Property is cheaper this far away from a city — which is the entire point.

Property dealers also say they run offices abroad; Bahria Town, too, has its corporate offices in the United States, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. Expatriate Pakistanis who have accumulated a certain amount of wealth, have gotten used to a certain standard of living and now wish to keep a house in their country of origin, are inevitably attracted to Bahria Town’s lavish infrastructure and the uninterrupted supply of electricity.

[Riaz Haq]

New UBL Tower Karachi is the new bank headquarter of United Bank Limited in Karachi, Pakistan. United Bank Limited (UBL) has just finished the construction of its head office in Karachi.

 

A 22 storey glass structure, 2 towers internally connected with 5 bridges? Wow. That's #UBLHeadOffice, a new #IconicLandmark in Karachi

 

According to UBL, this landmark represents the progressive and innovative past and the future of the bank. It is indeed a one of a kind high rise built by a banking company in Pakistan. The city’s skyline looks more lively with UBL’s new building towering over other commercial buildings in the area. https://propakistani.pk/2016/12/19/ubl-moved-headoffice-stunning-tw...

[Riaz Haq]

THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS
Pakistan’s construction industry – the hot cake for foreign investors

By Tehreem HusainPublished: October 23, 2017

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1538687/2-infrastructure-building-paki...

The construction industry is playing an important role in economic growth of Pakistan. Recent (provisional) estimates published in the Economic Survey of Pakistan show that the industry grew 9.1% in FY17 and contributed 2.7% to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

BMI Research has also provided a healthy growth outlook for the sector, putting it at 11.8% annually from 2016-20 and 9.1% over 2016-25.

The signing of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement and improvement in the country’s security situation have been the key to giving boost to not only the construction industry, but Pakistan’s image abroad. With China having the first-mover advantage in injecting foreign investment into the country, other countries have followed suit.

The sector has also been an important recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). This can be judged from the latest figures provided by the State Bank of Pakistan, which show that the construction industry received a net inflow of $35.7 million in August 2017.

How attractive the industry is perceived to be for foreign investors can be gauged from the fact that in the current fiscal year from July-August FY18 the industry has received $55.7 million relative to $1.6 million in the same period of last year.

Locally, investment has also been boosted by government policies such as reduction in duties and taxes on building materials like steel, construction machinery and equipment and computerisation of land ownership records.

[Riaz Haq]

THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS
Cement sales touch record high at 4.2 million tons in October

By Our CorrespondentPublished: November 4, 2017

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1549343/2-cement-sales-touch-record-hi...

Propelled by demand from new infrastructure projects in the country, overall cement sales touched a new peak at 4.222 million tons in October 2017, up 19.71% from the offtake of 3.526 million tons in the same month of the previous year, according to statistics released by the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association on Friday.

Total sales in the first four months (Jul-Oct) of fiscal year 2017-18 reached 14.570 million tons, which was 16.53% higher than dispatches of 12.503 million tons in the corresponding period of previous year.

The increase came from the surge in domestic demand, though exports stood unimpressive and dropped 16.16%.
Domestic cement consumption rose 25.61% to 3.779 million tons in October 2017 whereas exports continued to decline as they went down 14.55% to 0.443 million tons.

“Higher cement consumption in the country is a sign of growing economy that is having positive impact on over three dozen industries connected with the construction sector,” an association spokesman commented.

However, he said exports were below par which was a cause for worry because the industry still had idle capacity. “Almost all the decline in exports is via sea; shipments to India have also been affected but not to that extent,” he said.

The spokesman pointed out that demand in the north zone stood surprisingly very high as consumption in the region hit 3.148 million tons in October 2017. “It is for the first time that the north zone has consumed more than three million tons in a month.”

In October 2016, the consumption in the north zone totalled 2.489 million tons.

Cement demand in the southern region increased from 0.519 million tons in October 2016 to 0.631 million tons in October 2017.

Owing to the robust growth in domestic cement consumption in the first four months of FY18, the industry utilised over 93% of installed capacity.

“This is the highest capacity utilisation in the past 20 years, however, 1.08-million-ton capacity is still sitting idle,” he said, suggesting this could have been consumed by exports had government policies been export-friendly.


He cautioned that higher cement consumption did not mean economic planners should ignore the challenges faced by the industry.

Among the challenges, he cited the country’s tough regulations and said the industry was surviving because it had upgraded its technology that provided the strength needed to take any challenge head-on.

“Our quality is the best in the region. No cement can compete with Pakistani cement if imported at real and fair value after paying all levies. However, weak border controls and lax customs vigilance allow cement from across the border at unfair valuations,” he added.

The spokesman asked the government to cut the rate of excise duty in order to give a further boost to demand. Similarly, the duty on coal imported by the sector should be brought on a par with other sectors.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan cement sales rise in first quarter but exports down

05 October 2017

http://www.globalcement.com/news/itemlist/tag/All%20Pakistan%20Ceme...

Pakistan: Cement sales rose by 15% year-on-year to 10.3Mt in the first quarter of the local financial year that ended in September 2017 from 9Mt in the same period in 2016. However, the export part of this figure fell by 16.7% to 1.29Mt, according to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA). Exports fell faster in the south of the country, where the country’s ports are based, with a significant drop in seaborne trade.

“Robust construction activities within the country are supporting the cement sector, but it is still sitting on some idle capacity that could be exported through government facilitations like sharing the transport cost,” said the APCMA to the Nation newspaper. It added that the government should cut duties on cement to encourage the residential sector.

Published in Global Cement News 

Read more...

Pakistan powers forward

11 January 2017

The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) struck a triumphant note this week as it announced that its industry has over 26Mt/yr of capacity upgrades in the pipeline. Its chairman Sayeed Saigol concluded in a press release that the country’s growth trend required ‘massive’ investment and that its producers were working on it.

Graph 1 – Local and export cement despatches in Pakistan, 2008 – 2016. Data source: APCMA.

Graph 1 shows how the local industry has changed since 2009. At this time exports hit a high of over 11Mt, constituting 34% of all cement despatches at the time. Since then though exports have fallen to below 6Mt or 14% of despatches, as local despatches have started to increase. Although local despatches have risen each year, the growth rate was below 1% in 2011. In 2016 it was over 14%.

Much has changed since 2010. At this time production capacity hit a high of 45Mt/yr in the 2009 – 2010 Pakistan financial year, according to APCMA data, but then utilisation sunk to below 73%, its lowest rate in over a decade. Pakistan’s cement producers sought a way out by exporting their cement. Export volumes subsequently exploded to a high of nearly 11Mt in 2008 – 2009 from next to nothing at the turn of the millennium.

The effects of this had particular repercussions in eastern and southern Africa as local producers suffered against seaborne imports. In 2012 the outgoing chief of South Africa’s PPC summarised the problem by saying that imports were not a threat to African expansion, provided that a cement plant was not built within 200km of a port. Rightly or wrongly cement from Pakistan was vilified by the African press and then legislated against. South Africa even implementing anti-dumping duties to howls of derision from Pakistan.

Funnily enough though the APCMA has recommended that Pakistan’s government do exactly the same thing against imports of cement from Iran. Industry scare stories about Iranian cement being sold illegally in Pakistan have circulated since at least 2012. Iran’s nuclear deal in 2015 must have worried the local industry, as the prize for Iran was the lifting of international sanctions making it easier for one of the world’s largest cement producers to start exporting its product. However, president-elect Trump’s disdain for the Iran deal may put those worries to rest if the deal is ‘cancelled’.

Back to the present, the Pakistan cement industry appears to be booming. One motor is the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, a collection of infrastructure projects worth US$54bn. There is some disagreement at this point about how the usage levels of cement breakdown, with the chief executive of Thatta Cement placing it at 60% for inf.... If the latter is true then Pakistan’s cement producers may receive an even bigger payday. The emphasis on housing shouldn’t be underestimated though as the country’s production capacity per capita, below 200kg/capita, is low by international standards. Either way, things are looking good for the local producers.

[Riaz Haq]

#Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris offers to build 100,000 housing units in #Pakistan as part of #PMImranKhan’s Naya Pakistan #housing initiative. http://www.arabnews.pk/node/1437706/pakistan


Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris has offered to build 100,000 housing units in Pakistan to help realize Prime Minister Imran Khan’s dream of an ‘ambitious’ housing project, officials said on Friday.
“Naguib Sawiris has expressed his will to invest in 100,000 units of affordable housing to help prime minister (Imran Khan) in his vision toward Pakistan,” Tarek Hamdy, Chief Executive officer of Elite Estates — a partnership between Ora Developer and Saif Holding — told Arab News in an exclusive interview. 
Owned by Sawiris, Ora Developers is already engaged in the construction of a multibillion-dollar housing scheme named ‘Eighteen’ which was launched in 2017 in Islamabad with local partners, Saif Group and Kohistan Builders.
Sawiris’ first investment in Pakistan was in Mobilink, a cellular operator.
PM Khan in October 2018 had launched ‘Naya’ (New) Pakistan Housing Project in line with his party’s election manifesto, which promised fivr million houses for the poor.
Hamdy says they have “set rules or guidelines of the way of doing things” that apply to every real estate projects — whether they are affordable or high value units.
“We will use our experience and knowhow to deliver this properly to the people of Pakistan,” he added.
Since the announcement of the low-cost housing project for the poor, the scheme has been at the heart of all political and economic discourses with several calling it too ambitious.
“This scheme is very ambitious yet very promising for the people of Pakistan. I think all the developers should help in this scheme. You cannot solely rely on the government to build five million houses,” Hamdy said. 
Recently, the governor of Pakistan’s central bank had said that the massive housing project would require financing of upto Rs 17 trillion.
Hamdy believes that the promise of building five million affordable housing units cannot be realized in a short span of time. “I think the plan is right but it has to be in stages, has to be in steps. It could be achievable obviously that is not the project (to be achieved) in one or two years... may take few good years, may be couple of decades to be achieved,” he said.
In the Islamabad project the Ora Developers own a 60 percent stake in the project comprising a five-star hotel, 1,068 housing units, 921 residential apartments, business parks, hospitals, schools and other educational facilities and 13 office buildings, and a golf course. The networth of the project is $2 billion.
The next cities on the radar for real estate projects are Lahore, Karachi, and Faisalabad. “We intend to do more, we intend to invest more. I think that our portfolio of real estate could come to $10 billion worth of investments in the next five to 10 years including all the projects that we intent to do,” Hamdy said.
Pakistan’s housing sector is marred by frauds, scams and unfinished schemes which has been discouraging many potential investors from venturing into the sector. However, Hamdy says he is confident of delivering the promise by 2021.
Analysts say that Pakistan’s housing sector offers great opportunities for investment due to increasing demand. “According to estimates, the current real estate market value is around Rs900 billion which is three times that of the GDP,” Saad Hashmey, an analyst at Topline Securities, told Arab News, adding that the PM’s housing project is the need of the hour.
Pakistan faces a shortage of nearly 12 million housing units that may require a massive investment of around $180 billion, according to the former Chairman of the Association of Builders and Developers, Arif Yousuf Jeewa.

Pakistan expects to attract more than $40 billion foreign direct investment in the next five years in oil refining, petrochemical, mining, renewable energy, and real estate sectors. “We estimate that roughly around $40 billion investment will be made by three countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and China) during the next three to five years,” Pakistan Board of Investment BoI chief, Haroon Sharif had told Arab News earlier, adding that “the investment would start materializing within the next two years”.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan #cement production has grown from 35 million metric tons in 2015 to 55 million metric tons in 2021. #CPEC #NayaPakistan #housing #infrastructure #construction #exports https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/13839-update-on-pakistan-mar...

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1504176499032616960?s=20&...

Update on Pakistan, March 2022 - Cement industry news from Global Cement

https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/13839-update-on-pakistan-mar...

(Graph in the article shows Pakistan cement production growth from 35 million tons in 2015 to 55 million tons in 2021)

Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows that cement despatches have been steadily growing since the mid-2010s with a blip in 2020 caused by the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The upward trend has been driven by local sales. Exports have generally grown at the same time, with more variance, but they are yet to regain the high of nearly 11Mt reported in 2009. On a rolling annual basis, local sales have remained steady since mid-2021 but exports have been slowly falling. In April 2021 they were 9.17Mt but by February 2022 they were 7.33Mt. For the February 2022 figures APCMA blamed this on the growing cost of production, rising international freight rates, mounting coal prices and a trade ban with India. On that last point for example, Pakistan-based producers exported 1.21Mt of cement to India in the 2017 – 2018 financial year before exports stopped after February 2019. Despite a brief respite in the spring of 2021 talks are still ongoing to resume trade with India.

On the corporate side the country’s largest cement producer by capacity, Lucky Cement, drew the same conclusion as the APCMA with its half-year results to 31 December 2021. Its local sales volumes were down a little but its exports were down a lot. It noted that the reason its local sales were falling but national industry local sales were up slightly was due to some competitor plants being non-operational in the previous year. However, the company managed to keep sales revenue and earnings increasing year-on-year by successfully combating growing input costs with price rises. Bestway Cement, the country’s other large producer, reported a tougher situation in the second half of 2021, with both local sales and export volumes down. This was attributed to a boom in construction activity in the second half of 2020 as Covid-19 lockdowns were eased. Demand for cement since then was said to be ‘sluggish’ due to inflation and high commodity prices. It also pinned its marked fall in exports on political and economic instability in Afghanistan. However, turnover and operating profit were both up due to higher selling prices.

Elsewhere in the sector news since the start of 2021, Pakistan’s exports to South Africa remained stymied in early 2020 due to a review of ongoing tariffs and the government decision to restrict infrastructure projects to only using locally produced cement. On the sustainability front the APCMA started to set out its decarbonisation strategy in November 2021. It may have a long way to go given that a think tank reported earlier in the year that the cement sector was the largest emitter of coal-related CO2 emissions in the country, even more than power generation. Alongside this plenty of capacity additions have been announced. Lucky Cement started commercial cement production at its 1.2Mt/yr integrated Samawah cement plant in March 2021. Various new cement plants and upgrades to existing plants have been proposed by Bestway Cement, Cherat Cement, Fauji Cement, Kohat Cement Company, Lucky Cement and Maple Leaf Cement. Finally of note to a sector troubled by energy prices, in September 2021 the Pakistan International Bulk Terminal said it was going to upgrade its coal handling capacity to around 17Mt/yr by 2024.