Chinese Study: Hot and Humid Weather to Reduce Spread of Coronavirus

[Riaz Haq]

An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the (Covid-19) virus’s transmission, says a study published on March 10, 2020 by Chinese researchers. In an earlier 2009 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers had found that high absolute humidity can help kill flu virus particles in a given environment.

A team of Chinese researchers unveiled the results of their study last week that looked at how temperature and humidity may affect the transmission of COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. It showed that coronavirus transmission rates decline with increased temperatures and humidity. This may explain why there appear to be few reports of local COVID-19 transmissions in places like Pakistan. Most of the known coronavirus cases in Pakistan appear to be those of the people who have come into the country from cold, dry places like northern Iran where the pandemic is raging. The rate of local transmission in Pakistan is not zero but relatively low.

At the same time, small-scale clinical studies in China and France are indicating that chloroquine (Resochin) and its variant hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) are effective in treating coronavirus patients.  Both of these drugs are manufactured in Pakistan. These developments are showing light at the end of the tunnel.

COVID-16 Transmission Rates Vs Temperature and Humidity

New Chinese Study: 

The research team included Jingyuan Wang, Kai Feng, Weifeng Lv of Beihang University, and Ke Tang from Tsinghua University. They studied 100 different Chinese cities that each reported more than 40 cases of COVID-19 from Jan. 21 to 23, 2020.

“In the early dates of the outbreaks, countries with relatively lower air temperature and lower humidity (e.g. Korea, Japan and Iran) saw severe outbreaks than warmer and more humid countries (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) do," the researchers wrote.

Here's an excerpt from the abstract published by the team:

"After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19."

Some experts are pointing to the increased amount of UV rays from the sun the Northern Hemisphere will be subject to this time of year as a factor that could slow the virus, according to a story in AccuWeather.

Infections Rate Drop With Higher Temp and Humidity. Source: JP Morgan

Possible Treatments For COVID-19 Patients:

Recently, Chinese research (reported in Clinical Trials Arena) reported that “data from the drug’s [chloroquine] studies showed ‘certain curative effect’ with ‘fairly good efficacy’ … patients treated with chloroquine demonstrated a better drop in fever, improvement of lung CT images, and required a shorter time to recover compared to parallel groups. The percentage of patients with negative viral nucleic acid tests was also higher with the anti-malarial drug… Chloroquine has so far shown no obvious serious adverse reactions in more than 100 participants in the trials… Chloroquine was selected after several screening rounds of thousands of existing drugs. Chloroquine is undergoing further trials in more than ten hospitals in Beijing, Guangdong province and Hunnan province.”

Resochin (chloroquine) made by Bayer Pakistan

A small French study found only 25% of COVID19 patients who took it for 6 days still had the virus while 90% of those who had not taken it still had Covid-19.

HCQ (Hydroxychloroquine) Manufactured by Getz Pakistan

Economic Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic:

Service sector accounts for  50% of the world GDP and 54% of Pakistan's GDP.  Social distancing will significantly impact the services, particularly retail, restaurants, travel, transport and education sectors. Imran Khan has expressed fear that the pandemic will devastate the economies of developing countries.

“My worry is poverty and hunger," Khan said. "The world community has to think of some sort of a debt write-off for countries like us, which are very vulnerable, at least that will help us in coping with (the coronavirus).”

Summary:

Recent Chinese research is showing that hot and humid weather will significantly slow down transmission of coronavirus or COVID-19.  An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the (Covid-19) virus’s transmission, says a study published on March 10, 2020 by Chinese researchers. At the same time, small-scale clinical studies in China and France are indicating that chloroquine and its variant hudroxychloroquine are effective in treating coronavirus patients. Both of these developments are showing light at the end of the tunnel.

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[Riaz Haq]

#WHO #Philippines warns #coronavirus #Covid_19 can survive both hot, humid climates » Manila Bulletin News

https://news.mb.com.ph/2020/02/08/who-ph-2019-ncov-can-survive-both...

The World Health Organization (WHO) Philippines warned on Saturday, Feb. 8, that the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) can survive in both hot and humid climates.

This was one of the rumors and myths the WHO Philippines debunked in its latest Twitter posts.

“2019-nCoV has spread to countries with both hot and humid climates, as well as cold and dry,” WHO Philippines said.

[Riaz Haq]

> What's the opinion of doctors on these questions:
>
> 1. Is social distancing worth the economic cost?
Whatever we can do to prevent spread is worth the economic cost. Remember the Spanish flu death toll was 50-100 million people and the population then was much less. Moreover, keep in mind that treating a COVID-19 patient is also very costly, so the old adage: ‘prevention is better than cure’.
I think we should also be testing more people. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In addition, United States has been plagued by much fewer and faulty testing kits. While incidence of COVID-19 increases in Europe and USA, the incidence has dropped by about 90% in South Korea. They have achieved it without taking extreme measures of locking down whole cities.
>
> 2. How long should it last?
It is anyone’s guess. It depends on the measures we take. My guesstimate is at least several months
>
> 3. Should there be a national quarantine?
I don’t think there is a need right now. We should learn from South Korea: Transparency, exercise precaution, ample availability of PPE and testing, early detection and isolation on case by case basis.
>
> 4. Is there a need to flatten the curve?
Yes. For all the reasons stated above
>
> 5. Will the virus die when hot weather arrives?
No. However, it’s survival time on surfaces decreases. Moreover, the distance traveled by droplets from coughing and sneezing decreases from 6 feet to about 2 feet.
>
> 6. Will it infect 55% of the population in California?
> Quite possible. Depends on how we deal with it. Please remember 20% of infected people have no symptoms and are carriers. Moreover, the # of present cases is under reported due to poor testing.
> 7. What percent will end up in the hospital?
> I am not sure of the hospitalization rate but about 2.5 -3% cases in United States are seriously ill. Please also keep in mind that although the chance of dying from the disease is much higher in people over 65, 40% of cases hospitalized in United States is between ages 20-55.
> 8. What percent will not make it?
> About 4% Worldwide while 1.3% in United States so far. The lower % in United States is probably due to superior medical care.
> 9.Is the malaria drug plus Z-pack combo an effective treatment or simply a placebo?
> It is early to say but seems to hold promise. It may very well be effective.
> 10. When a vaccine for this virus be discovered before this year comes to a close?
Likely. There is lot of progress being made on this front

[Riaz Haq]

#Coronavirus Portal Launched in #Pakistan. Current snapshot shows 646 cases. #COVID19 https://covidwatch.pk

[Riaz Haq]

WHO launches global megatrial of4 most promising #coronavirus treatments: an experimental antiviral compound called #Remdesivir ; the #malaria medications #Chloroquine and #Hydroxychloroquine ; a combination of 2 HIV drugs, lopinavir and ritonavir.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatri...

Scientists have suggested dozens of existing compounds for testing but WHO is focusing on what it says are the four most promising therapies: an experimental antiviral compound called remdesivir; the malaria medications chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine; a combination of two HIV drugs, lopinavir and ritonavir; and that same combination plus interferon-beta, an immune system messenger that can help cripple viruses. Some data on their use in COVID-19 patients has already emerged—the HIV combo failed in a small study in China-but WHO believes a large trial with a greater variety of patients is warranted.

Enrolling subjects in SOLIDARITY will be easy. When a person with a confirmed case of COVID-19 is deemed eligible, the physician can enter the patient’s data into a WHO website, including any underlying condition that could change the course of the disease, such as diabetes or HIV infection. The participant has to sign an informed consent form that is scanned and sent to WHO electronically. After the physician states which drugs are available at his or her hospital, the website will randomize the patient to one of the drugs available or to the local standard care for COVID-19.

[Riaz Haq]

Johns Hopkins University, sent this excellent summary to avoid contagion , sharing it with you because it is very clear:


* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

* NO BACTERICIDE SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; they cannot kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with everything said.

* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, be

cause it removes all the moisture and does not let it peel off and disintegrates). ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.

* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.

* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.

* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.

* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.

* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.

* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.

* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.

* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.

* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better. * Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
Asst. Prof in infectious diseases John Hopkins University

[Riaz Haq]

Warm, #humid #weather could slow #coronavirus.
#US #NIH Director Dr. Anthony #Fauci: “.....in the southern hemisphere countries (#SouthAfrica, #Australia) , is that we’re having cases that are appearing as they go into their winter season" #COVID19 #heat https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/24/warm-humid-weathe...

The novel coronavirus pandemic that has killed thousands, sickened more than 350,000 and sent major economies into a tailspin may be slowed by the upcoming changing of the seasons, several preliminary studies suggest. However, the research on how the novel coronavirus behaves in various temperature and humidity levels is only just getting underway.

Multiple early studies provide evidence of statistical ties between temperature and humidity ranges and the geographic regions where this virus has thrived. While none of these studies has been peer-reviewed, they all point to the same general possibility: The pandemic could ease in parts of North America and Europe during the summer months, although it could then come roaring back in the fall.

Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a visible figure on the White House coronavirus task force, said at a Wednesday press briefing that a seasonal cycle to the pandemic is possible, perhaps even likely.

“... I think it very well might. And the reason I say that is that what we’re starting to see now in the Southern Hemisphere, in southern Africa and in the southern hemisphere countries, is that we’re having cases that are appearing as they go into their winter season. And if, in fact, they have a substantial outbreak, it will be inevitable that we need to be prepared, that we’ll get a cycle around the second time.”

The anecdotal evidence suggesting a possible connection between the rate of spread of covid-19, the illness the novel coronavirus causes, and temperature emerged early on. One of the most puzzling things about the unfolding pandemic in Asia is why many countries and territories in the region have apparently been spared major, rapidly growing outbreaks, despite close contacts with China, where the outbreak began.

The success of places like Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong in tamping down the epidemic could be ascribed to quick and decisive action by their governments as well as effective precautions by local residents to enforce social distancing.

But that doesn’t fully explain why Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines have largely been spared mass outbreaks of the disease, at least not on the scale that has been seen in Western Europe and the United States. All had huge numbers of Chinese visitors at the start of the year, have crowded cities and relatively simple health-care systems.

Cambodia was criticized early in the epidemic for failing to close its borders with China and even failing to promote the wearing of masks, with Prime Minister Hun Sen accused of putting his relationship with his strongest foreign backer ahead of the needs of his people.

[Riaz Haq]

Karachi's latitude is 25 N, Lahore 31 N and Islamabad 33 N. Coronavirus hotspots are above 30 degrees N. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074970/coronavirus...

“The establishment of community transmission has occurred in a consistent east-and-west pattern. The new [regional] epicentres of the virus were all roughly along the 30-50 degree [lines of latitude] north zone,” according to a team of US and Iranian researchers.
Their work, made public this week on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) and pending review by peer experts, said that common temperature and humidity factors in these locations may allow epidemiologists to anticipate where virus cases may become focused.