CAREC: More Landlocked States Look to Pakistan's Gwadar Port

[Riaz Haq]

Uzbekistan is the third landlocked state in recent years to request the use of Pakistani ports for trade, according to media reports.  The Central Asian nation has asked to join Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA) to make use of Karachi and Gwadar ports for its trade operations. Current members of QTTA are China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Afghanistan is not a member of QTTA but it currently uses Gwadar and Karachi ports under Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). Pakistan is making a serious effort to stabilize Afghanistan, a member of CAREC. The recent US-Taliban peace deal is the result of Pakistan's efforts to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table. Afghan instability has prevented Pakistan from connecting with other STANs for commerce and trade. Now the development of CPEC will enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan, if necessary, to connect with Central Asia region through Western China.

Pakistan to Bypass Afghan Wakhan Corridor to Trade With Central Asia Via China

Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA):

The Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA) is a transit trade deal between China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan for facilitating transit traffic and trade.

In addition to being members of QTTA, China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are also part of CAREC, the Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation. Other CAREC member nations include Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Mongolia, Tajikistan , Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure projects have strengthened Pakistan's connectivity with landlocked Central Asia region in recent years.

CAREC Ministerial Meeting Islamabad, Pakistan

CAREC or SAARC:

Pakistan sits between two economically very dynamic regions: Central Asia (and Western China) and South Asia. Which region is better suited for its economic connectivity and integration? Should Islamabad focus on CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation) rather than SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation)?

Ideally, Pakistan should be a major player in both vibrant regions. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has adopted a belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.   All of Modi's actions, including his order to bomb Balakot in Pakistan in February 2019, have signaled his outright aggression against Pakistan. His government's actions in Kashmir have extinguished any hope of normal relations between South Asia's two largest economies in the foreseeable future.  These have essentially forced Pakistan to choose between SAARC and CAREC.

CAREC Corridors: 

CAREC region is building six economic corridors to link Central Asian nations. Six multi-national institutions support the CAREC infrastructure development, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank,  Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, according to Khaleej Times.

Out of the total $27.7 billion CAREC infrastructure investment so for, $9.9 billion or 36 per cent was financed by ADB, a senior officer of the Manila-based multinational bank told Khaleeej Times.

He said other donors had invested $10.9 billion while $6.9 billion was contributed by CAREC governments. Of these investments, transport got the major share with $8 billion or 78 per cent. Asian Development Bank Vice President Wencai Zhang said: "There are huge financing requirements in Carec for transport and trade facilitation, for which 108 projects have been identified at an investment cost of $38.8 billion for the period 2012-2020. Investment for the priority energy sector projects will be $45 billion in this period."

CPEC North-South Corridor:

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a major part of the north-south corridor that will allow trade to flow among CAREC member countries, many of which are resource-rich but landlocked nations. The corridor will enable the group to access to the Pakistani seaports in Gwadar and Karachi as part of the new maritime silk route (MSR) as envisioned by China and Pakistan.

CPEC consists of transport and communication infrastructure—roads, railways, cable, and oil and gas pipelines—that will stretch 2,700 kilometers from Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to the Khunjerab Pass at the China-Pakistan border in the Karakorams.

China and Pakistan are developing plans for an 1,800 kilometer international rail link from the city of Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region in Western China to Pakistan's deep-sea Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea, according to Zhang Chunlin, director of Xinjiang's regional development and reform commission.

Rail Network Bypasses Afghanistan

 "The 1,800-kilometer China-Pakistan railway is planned to also pass through Pakistan's capital of Islamabad and Karachi," Zhang Chunlin said at the two-day International Seminar on the Silk Road Economic Belt in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, according to China Daily.

"Although the cost of constructing the railway is expected to be high due to the hostile environment and complicated geographic conditions, the study of the project has already started," Zhang said. "China and Pakistan will co-fund the railway construction. Building oil and gas pipelines between Gwadar Port and China is also on the agenda," Zhang added.

Afghan Instability:

Pakistan is making a serious effort to stabilize Afghanistan, a member of CAREC. The recent US-Taliban peace deal is the result of Pakistan's efforts to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table. Afghan instability has prevented Pakistan from connecting with other STANs for commerce and trade. Now the development of CPEC will enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan, if necessary, to connect with Central Asia region through Western China.

Summary:

A growing list of landlocked Central Asian countries is lining up to use Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi for trade. Uzbekistan is the latest nation to do so. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure projects have strengthened Pakistan's connectivity with landlocked Central Asia region in recent years.  The Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA) is a transit trade deal between China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan for facilitating transit traffic and trade.

In addition to being members of QTTA, China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are also part of CAREC, the Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation. Other CAREC member nations include Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.  Pakistan is making a serious effort to stabilize Afghanistan, a member of CAREC. The recent US-Taliban peace deal is the result of Pakistan's efforts to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table. Afghan instability has prevented Pakistan from connecting with other STANs for commerce and trade. Now the development of CPEC will enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan, if necessary, to connect with Central Asia region through Western China.

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[Riaz Haq]

#US to include #Pakistan in $3b fund for Central Asian Republics. US IDFC fund is to support immediate liquidity requirements of financial institutions, in the aftermath of the #COVID19. Pakistan looking for stronger connectivity in #CAREC. #infrastructure https://tribune.com.pk/story/2252842/us-keen-to-include-pakistan-in...

The United States intends to launch a regional fund for development in Central Asian Republics (CARs), which will include Pakistan as well.
In this regard, US International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) CEO Adam Boehler informed Adviser to Prime Minister on Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood that they intended to start a regional fund for development in CARs, which had shown keen interest in including Pakistan in the fund.

He added that the IDFC had a $3-billion fund for immediate liquidity requirements of financial institutions, in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. He also discussed a number of opportunities with the Pakistani side and decided to pursue different options, as discussed in the meeting.

Giving an overview of Pakistan’s economic relationships with regional countries, Dawood said Pakistan was already working closely with Afghanistan, particularly on the development of transit trade as well as building a long-term economic relationship. The PM aide added that Pakistan was looking for stronger connectivity with CARs, which would include building of roads as well as power infrastructure.

The adviser underlined that Pakistan was a high-cost energy country and with stronger connectivity with CARs, the country could lower the cost for the benefit of investors and businesses. He further said the IDFC could play an instrumental role as a link among these regional countries for the achievement of mutual objectives.

While discussing different opportunities in Pakistan, Dawood apprised the IDFC official of the public-private partnership model introduced by the government in order to ease some burden on the annual development expenditure.

He explained that there was a need for foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan because it brought technology, caused improvement in productivity and created employment opportunities for the locals.

He stressed that Pakistan was looking for diversification in FDI as investors.

The adviser also shared the problems being faced by businessmen in Pakistan, amid the global pandemic, including liquidity issues and cancelation of export orders.

Elaborating on the specific areas where the IDFC could support Pakistan, the Board of Investment (BOI) chairman, who was also present in the meeting, talked about the importance of equity investment rather than direct loans, which was a more sustainable approach towards development.

[Riaz Haq]

#Kavkaz2020: Why #Russia’s Latest #Military Drills Are a Golden Opportunity for #Pakistan! 18 nations, including #China, Pakistan & Central Asian nations are participating. #India has withdrawn from opportunity for military diplomacy. @Diplomat_APAC https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/kavkaz-2020-why-russias-latest-mili...

Pakistan can also use the opportunity to reset relations closer to home. The scenic Wakan corridor separates Pakistan and Tajikistan and at their closest point, the two countries are a mere 10 miles apart. Despite historical and cultural ties between the two Asian nations (both were part of the Arab Umayyad and Persian Empires) and their joint participation in several infrastructure and energy projects (the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Program), Tajikistan plays host to India’s only air force base outside of its borders. The Farkhor Air Base lies around 81 miles southeast of Dushanbe and perilously close to Pakistan’s northern border with Afghanistan. Indian fighter jets taking off from the base can reach Pakistani airspace in little more than a few minutes.

Naturally, this has put a significant strain on relations with Islamabad. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there are no major military ties or significant arms deals between Pakistan and Tajikistan, and if the former plays its cards right, it could use the drills as an opportunity to pull Tajikistan away from India’s military grip.

Military drills are often seen as a show of common strength between allies and a warning to others. However, for Pakistan it would be wise not to see these drills as a show of strength, but rather as an important opportunity to further its relationship with the former Soviet World. India’s recent decision to stay away from Kavkaz 2020 along with the sheer number of former Soviet states participating in them suggests a golden opportunity Pakistan cannot afford to ignore.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan launches ferry service linking Iran, Iraq, UAE and beyond

https://www.cruisemapper.com/news/7888-pakistan-launches-ferry-serv...


The federal cabinet of Pakistan on Tuesday, September 8, gave formal approval to the launch of a ferry service out of ports Gwadar and Karachi to the neighbouring states Iran, Iraq, UAE-United Arab Emirates and beyond.

Currently, there was no national or international commercial ferry service operating in the country for the purpose of transportation of goods and passengers. In the regional countries like Bangladesh, Iran, Oman, Sri Lanka, and there were established ferry operators successfully running on a variety of routes. The potential for initiating Pakistan's ferry service has been felt for quite some time, especially in providing an alternate route for Zaireen intending to call at holy sites in Iran and Iraq.

Transportation between Gwadar and Karachi and provision of an alternate water route between Port Qasim and Karachi also has potential for the country.

The Ministry of Maritime Affairs moved a summary for Prime Minister back on December 15, 2017, through the interior, foreign affairs, revenue and defence divisions, proposing the launch of a ferry service through PNSC (Pakistan National Shipping Corporation). The proposal was endorsed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Interior but the Defence Division raised observations and conditions on the proposed service. The Prime Minister’s Office returned the summary with directions to address the observations and re-submit the same.

The maritime affairs ministry re-submitted the proposal and suggested the involvement of private operators and a slightly changed route. The Defence Division supported it but stressed that ferry service should be launched in 3 phases, recommending ferry services to Muscat and then to UAE and Abu Dhabi in 1st and 2nd phases, respectively, and later to Iran and Iraq in the 3rd phase. The re-submitted proposal was returned by the Prime Minister’s Office, with the direction to convene a meeting of the stakeholders to address all the observations and thereafter submit recommendations.

[Riaz Haq]

#Iran, #India to revive #Chabahar. India aims to compete with #China & #Pakistan (#Gwadar/#CPEC) by including #Uzbekistan in North-South Transport Corridor for #trade with #Afghanistan , #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Russia, #CentralAsia, #Europe .


https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/02/iran-india-chaba...

In a proactive move, India has made fresh overtures toward Iran, apparently sensing the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal is imminent.

Last week, JP Singh, the joint secretary for Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, paid a visit to Tehran.

Laying the groundwork for closer ties, he held political consultations with top officials and obtained updates on the progress at Chabahar, where New Delhi is funding a project to develop the port on the Gulf of Oman. The main purpose of this visit was to regain India’s lost foothold in the Iranian port project.

Then Singh also touched base with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, one of the main people involved these days in negotiations regarding the revival of the nuclear deal that is formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). New Delhi is seemingly awaiting the removal of sanctions on Iran before it engages in any large-scale projects or business activity in the country.

Indeed, there have been some positive indications in this direction from Washington. Encouragingly enough, Robert Malley, one of the main negotiators of the 2015 deal, has been appointed as envoy to Iran by the Biden administration. Likewise, the appointment of Wendy Sherman as deputy secretary of state also points toward a possible US-Iran rapprochement, as she had led the team that eventually clinch the deal.


First, if the nuclear deal is salvaged, there is more of the likelihood that Iran will stop “looking East” and maybe even decrease its tilt toward China. Instead, it would try to re-establish business with Western countries, as this is exactly what it had done in 2015 when the JCPOA was first implemented.

Second, as Iran and India already have a defense pact between them, an upgraded strategic role could have a negative impact on Sino-Pakistani projects in the region. Ever since China and Pakistan announced the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project, India cannot help but feel encircled. Moving in next door in Chabahar would be the ideal setup for New Delhi to keep an eye on developments in the Gwadar port and on Pakistan’s coastline.

Third, trying to break Chinese influence in the region, India would want to redirect Afghanistan and Central Asia toward its own routes. Having a pivotal role in advancing New Delhi’s ambitions, the port of Chabahar is center stage.

In case Iran does go ahead with the widely discussed 25-year strategic partnership with China, it could complicate matters, as Beijing’s prospective $400 billion deal includes access to all of Iran’s ports. In a recent television interview, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the China-Iran 25-year deal will be finalized soon and that the two countries are not far from reaching an agreement.

Apparently, Iran continues to keep all its options open where regional alliances are concerned.

Finally, for a few years, spats between India and China have become a regular feature at their mutual border in the Himalayan region. As India gets closer to Iran, tensions between Beijing and New Delhi will start one more front.

Due to the constant maritime competition between regional powers, the Indian Ocean region has become a “key geostrategic space” as it connects the oil-rich Middle East with economic markets in Asia. Enhancing ties with Tehran can be quite useful for New Delhi, as Iran is one of the largest states in this region with an extended presence in the northern part of the Indian Ocean.

However, to some extent the success of India’s regional strategy will depend on the resumption of the JCPOA for now, as Iran’s reintegration into the world economy is dependent on the lifting of US sanctions.

[Riaz Haq]

#Uzbekistan Prefers #Pakistani Over #Iranian Ports.The road is said to cut transportation time from 30 to 15 days from Uzbekistan and other landlocked Central Asian countries to #Pakistan and reduce expenses by 30-35%. #CPEC #Karachi #Gwadar
@Diplomat_APAC https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/uzbekistan-prioritizes-pakistani-ov...

Uzbekistan Prioritizes Pakistani Over Iranian Ports
Accessing seaports at lower costs and shorter distances is a decades-old issues Tashkent is trying to solve, Pakistani ports might be the answer.

Uzbekistan is currently highly reliant on the Iranian seaport of Bandar Abbas, accessed through Turkmenistan. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s earlier efforts were focused on continuing to use Iran’s port, but exploring options to access it more directly, such as via a new railroad from Afghanistan’s Herat. Uzbekistan’s other earlier efforts, such as the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Oman railroad corridors, also clearly involved Iran.

Tashkent appears to be reevaluating its plans in favor of de-emphasizing access to Iranian ports, and the economic rhetoric is dominant. According to Eldar Aripov, director of the Institute of Strategic and Regional Studies, the Mazar-i-Shareef-Peshawar project offers an entirely new transportation option while the Herat option merely expands existing routes. The cost of transporting a container from Tashkent to Karachi would be approximately $1,400-$1,600, while on the Tashkent-Bandar-Abbas route it is $2,600-$3,000. Furthermore, the construction of the Herat connection will be complicated, but the Pakistan route would tap into a number of existing projects.

Two years ago, Aripov spoke of two other reasons why the Pakistani ports should receive priority over other railroad options. The first reason is that the Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar road is the shortest route linking Uzbekistan to a seaport. Second, the road together with the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China corridor unites the four largest corridors in China, the CIS, Europe, and South Asia.

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The trilateral talks, attended by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade of Uzbekistan Sardor Umurzakov, Advisor to Pakistani Prime Minister on Commerce and Investment Abdul Razzaq Dawood, and Afghan Foreign Minister Mohammad Hanif Atmar, ended by adopting the Mazar-i Shareef-Kabul-Peshawar Road Map.

According to the roadmap plan, the construction of the 600-km railroad should take five years and will allow access to the Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi. Central Asia’s other projects with Afghanistan — the Surkhon-Puli Humri high voltage electricity line to allow Uzbekistan to supply electricity to Afghanistan and the CASA-1000 regional electricity project supplying surplus electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — will pass by the same communication lanes and will distribute construction expenses among the three projects.

Tashkent has further arguments in favor of prioritizing access to Pakistani ports. The project presents new opportunities to all participants. For Pakistan and other countries, such as India, the road would open opportunities for connecting with markets of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) by rail. Currently, these trade relations are supported by sea routes only.

[Riaz Haq]

Of #Pakistan's total $66 billion of annual #trade in 2020, #China accounted for $11.2 billion & North #America $6.76 billion. It plans to grow trade with 5 landlocked Stans in #CentralAsia to $1.5 billion a year from less than a billion in past decade. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-09/pakistan-seeks-m...

The South Asian nation is looking to finalize a new trade accord with Kabul by June, Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to Prime Minister Imran Khan, said in an interview in Islamabad. It plans to grow trade with five landlocked Central Asian nations -- Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan -- to about $1.5 billion a year from less than a billion in the past decade, he said.

“We’re too restricted to a few countries -- North America, European Union and China,” said Dawood. “But there is a much bigger world.”

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan promises a return of stability and provides an opportunity to Pakistan to strengthen commerce with its neighbor, which sits at the cross-roads of South and Central Asia. Also, Islamabad stands to benefit from greater trade with Central Asian markets that are rich in energy resources needed to feed its ambition to grow its industrial base.

Read: Biden Pulls the Plug on Afghan War at Risk of Turmoil Ahead

Pakistan is due to sign transit and preferential trade agreement with Uzbekistan in July, Dawood said.

The South Asian economy’s move to scout for newer markets stems from the need to diversify its trade basket that’s heavily reliant on the U.S., EU and China. Of its total $66 billion of annual trade in the year ended June 2020, China accounted for $11.2 billion and North America $6.76 billion, according to data from State Bank of Pakistan.

Analysts see the new push in the context of Pakistan’s geo-strategic framework, which draws from the economic cooperation espoused by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

While China has channeled investments toward electricity generation in Pakistan as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, it’s financing has also been focused on gas- and oil-based projects for exploration and distribution in Central Asia.

“Economy is one part of the strategic outlook,” Vaqar Ahmed, joint executive director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute said. “Ultimately you would need economy, trade and investment cooperation to keep excitement in your strategic interests.”

[Riaz Haq]

#Trade-growth bid sees #Pakistan look nearer to home in #CentralAsia.“We’re too restricted to a few countries,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to PM Imran Khan, said in an interview. “But there is a much bigger world.” #exports https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-05-19/supply-chains... via @business

Trucks carrying processed leather from Uzbekistan have arrived in Pakistan, a sign that the southern Asian economy’s efforts to expand land trade in its neighborhood are paying off.

The arrival of the cargo in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar via Afghanistan marks the first step in Islamabad’s goal to grow commerce with central Asian nations to about $1.5 billion per year from less than $1 billion in the past decade.

Pakistan’s focus on central Asia is a departure from its reliance hitherto on three key markets — North America, European Union and China. Expanding trade with resources-rich Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan also fits Islamabad’s ambition of growing its industrial base.

“We’re too restricted to a few countries,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to Prime Minister Imran Khan, said in an interview. “But there is a much bigger world.”

Pakistan is due to sign a transit and preferential trade agreement with Uzbekistan in July, he said, adding that an accord with Afghanistan would also be wrapped up by June.

Analysts see the new push in the context of Pakistan’s geo-strategic framework, which draws from the economic cooperation championed by Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of his Belt and Road Initiative.

While China has channeled investments toward electricity generation in Pakistan as part of its BRI deals, it’s financing has also been focused on gas- and oil-based projects for exploration and distribution in central Asia.

“Economy is one part of the strategic outlook,” said Vaqar Ahmed, a joint executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. “Ultimately you would need economy, trade and investment cooperation to keep excitement in your strategic interests.”

[Riaz Haq]

#US, #Afghanistan, #Pakistan, #Uzbekistan to form quad group to enhance regional connectivity for #rade, #transit links. The new quad group is important amid #China's desire to extend its Belt Road Initiative (BRI) to Afghanistan. #BRI #CPEC #SilkRoad https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-afghanistan-pakistan...

The US, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan have agreed in principle to establish a new quadrilateral diplomatic platform focused on enhancing regional connectivity, the Biden administration has said.

“The parties consider long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan critical to regional connectivity and agree that peace and regional connectivity are mutually reinforcing,” the State Department said on Friday.

Recognising the historic opportunity to open flourishing interregional trade routes, the parties intend to cooperate to expand trade, build transit links, and strengthen business-to-business ties, it said.

“The parties agreed to meet in the coming months to determine the modalities of this cooperation with mutual consensus,” said the State Department.

Afghanistan’s strategic location has for a long time been touted as a competitive advantage for the country. Afghanistan is bordered by Pakistan to the east and south, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north, and China to the northeast.

Located at the heart of the historic Silk Road, Afghanistan was long the crossroads of commerce between Asian countries connecting them to Europe, and enhancing religious, cultural, and commercial contacts.

The formation of the new quad group is important amid China's desire to extend its Belt Road Initiative (BRI) to Afghanistan.

The BRI, a multi-billion-dollar initiative launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he came to power in 2013, aims to link Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Gulf region, Africa and Europe with a network of land and sea routes.

By virtue of its location, Afghanistan can provide China with a strategic base to spread its influence across the world.

Since the announcement of the withdrawal of U.S. forces by August 31, violence has been rising and efforts to broker a peace settlement between the Afghan government and insurgent Taliban have slowed.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s geo-economics is working well. Despite their friendly relations with #China (& #Russia), both #Uzbekistan & #Pakistan (biggest 2 nations in Greater Middle East) are eager to deepen ties with the #US. China has huge stakes in Pak & #Afghanistan https://www.indianpunchline.com/pakistans-geo-economics-is-working-...


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The parties agreed to meet in the coming months to determine the modalities of this cooperation with mutual consensus.

The US is intensely conscious that its prestige in the region is at its nadir today and it stands isolated, as the reported cheeky Russian offer volunteering to be America’s gatekeeper shows.


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Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan are also Muslim countries and they provide a market of around 300 million people. No doubt, the US did its homework. This QUAD has viability unlike its insipid namesake in the “Indo-Pacific.”

In the recent years, the US has been paying extra attention to cultivate friendly ties with Uzbekistan, which is not only the biggest country in Central Asia but a relative success story regionally in political stability and overall developmental trajectory.

Tashkent has been receptive to Washington’s overtures, as strong ties with America help it to balance Russia and will strengthen its strategic autonomy.

The new Quad signals the US’ receptiveness to Pakistan’s persisting demand for a bilateral relationship that goes beyond Afghan issues. There are fault lines in the China-Pakistan relationship, which are no more possible to conceal, and in Washington’s judgment, Pakistani elites, civilian and military, have remained as western-oriented as ever despite their alienation in the recent decade.

To be sure, with the curtain coming down on the Afghan war, the time has come for establishing rail/road links connecting Central Asia with Karachi/Gwadar ports. The expected improvement in the security situation allows mega projects to be implemented. Conceivably, the Taliban would have no reservations over the QUAD. The Pakistani ports are ideally placed to connect the resource-rich Central Asian region and Afghanistan with the world market.

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Clearly, by having both the CPEC and the QUAD on its platter, Pakistan is tasing success in its foreign-policy shift toward geoeconomics. Pakistan’s geography makes it a turf for competition between China and the West in infrastructure development. Simply put, the new QUAD will impact regional politics.

Indeed, the US hopes to wean Pakistan away from its heavy dependence on China. The new QUAD will make India look an outlier drifting aimlessly without a sense of direction. India turned its back on China’s BRI but Pakistan secured the $60 billion CPEC and is now looking forward to the US-led QUAD.

India’s relations with China are in deep chill and its traditional friendly ties with Russia have become listless, whereas, Pakistan not only enriched its ties with China but is successfully exploring the multipolarity in the world order.

On July 16, Pakistan and Russia signed a mega deal for a 1100 km gas pipeline project costing between $2.5 – $3 billion connecting Karachi and Lahore which will transport imported LNG (for which it has separately signed a deal with Qatar whereby 200 mmcfd of gas will initially reach Karachi’s LNG terminal in the beginning of next year that would be enhanced to 400 mmcfd in the coming years.) Whereas, India’s gas pipeline project with Iran has been languishing as pipe dream. read more

Pakistan is anxious to have President Putin inaugurate the groundbreaking of the gas pipeline project, which is expected to be held later this year or in early 2022. Delhi should seriously introspect whether its passionate embrace of the US bandwagon through the past decade under successive governments, brought any significant dividends.

Pakistan is once again becoming a frontline state in big-power rivalry. But this time around, Pakistan stands to gain out of its geography and hopes to create equity for its development.

[Riaz Haq]

UNPACKING PAKISTAN’S GEO-ECONOMIC AMBITIONS
Pakistani leaders have repeatedly signaled a shift from ‘geopolitics’ to ‘geo-economics’ in recent months

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2311110/unpacking-pakistans-geo-econom...


Pakistan’s pivot from ‘geopolitics’ to ‘geo-economics’ came into sharp focus recently as Prime Minister Imran Khan concluded his visit to Uzbekistan. The term has been repeatedly brought up since the beginning of this year – first when the premier visited Sri Lanka in February and then in March, when both the army chief and Pakistan’s foreign minister announced in clear words the country’s developing geo-economic vision for its future.

The Uzbekistan trip, which spanned July 15 and 16, culminated in a slew of agreements across a range of sectors, from trade to culture. Among other things, the two nations agreed to finalise a preferential trade agreement (PTA) within three months to boost bilateral trade volume, which for now is far below potential. But perhaps most the significant one was a deal to enhance rail links between the two nations via Afghanistan.

The benefits of this particular agreement appear obvious. For the landlocked Central Asian nation, greater connectivity will allow it access to Pakistan’s three ports in Gwadar and Karachi.

For Pakistan, however, the end goal goes beyond more trade opportunities with resource-rich Central Asia. Linking Gwadar and Karachi to the 11-nation Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) corridor would open the country and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor to both Russia and Europe – the benefits of which, most observers agree, would be unimaginable.

But Pakistan’s pivot seems to be taking shape in a crowded geopolitical space that poses a new set of challenges.

A battle of ‘new world orders’

In his first news conference in March, US President Joe Biden kept observers on their toes by dubbing his country’s great power competition with China a ‘global ideological fight between democracy and autocracy’. His language signified the emergence of a new divided world, the likes of which had not been seen since the end of the Cold War.

The 1990s saw the emergence of a unipolar world, perhaps for the first time in human history, as the Soviet Union disintegrated and the US, starting with Iraq and Kuwait, discovered it could decide global matters alone. Empowered by its technological and military supremacy, the US cemented its lone influence over major trade routes, like the straits of Malacca and Hormuz, and thus found itself in control of other nations economic and energy bloodlines. Through organisations it led, like the World Bank and IMF, the US also strengthened its global financial influence around the same time.

Against this backdrop, the China-led OBOR appears to contest the old US-led ‘new world order’ by providing alternative strategic routes to the ones the latter controls. Simultaneously, China’s rapid military modernisation, especially in terms of naval power projection, threatens America’s singular dominance of the seas.

Beijing’s large-scale investment in various regions, likewise, has appeared as a challenge to US financial might and the latter has already fired the first salvo in an emerging economic war by slapping sanctions on certain Chinese firms.

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Speaking on internal challenges, former principal economic advisor and prominent economist Sakib Sherani said the implementation of geo-economics strategies would become near impossible for Pakistan if reforms in various areas are not implemented. “Take for example taxation, the system is so flawed that the entire burden is on formal and registered businesses instead of informal or unregistered businesses. Which is why informal sector in the country is growing,” he stressed. “It is not only affecting the government’s revenue but discouraging direct foreign investment as well,” he added.