Bloody Start of Year 2013 in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

What has caused a sudden and tragic jump in mass casualty attacks in Pakistan with over 200 deaths, mostly of Hazara Shias, in a single day on January 10, 2013? Is it just impunity or blow back from intensified US drone attacks early in 2013 as President Barack Obama accelerates US pull-out from Afghanistan? Or is it lack of national political consensus in Pakistan to punish the blood-thirsty Taliban and their murderous sectarian allies like LeJ and SSP?

Background:

In a rare public statement on the effectiveness of US drone campaign in FATA, General Officer Commanding 7-Division Maj-Gen Ghayur Mehmood serving in Waziristan in 2011 said: "Yes there are a few civilian casualties in such precision strikes, but a majority of those eliminated are terrorists, including foreign terrorist elements.” In addition, Maj-Gen Ghayur, who led Pakistani troops in North Waziristan at the time, also said that the drone attacks had negative fallout, scaring the local population and causing their migration to other places. Gen Ghayur said the drone attacks also had social and political repercussions and law-enforcement agencies often felt the heat.

In other words, US drone strikes do kill mainly militants in FATA but also cause a blow back in the rest of the country for law enforcement and innocent civilians, and the Pakistani civil administration has failed miserably in dealing with it.

Blow Back:

The January 10 terrorist attacks appear to be a strong and swift blow back to the stepped up  US CIA campaign of seven strikes in the first 10 days of the year 2013. This raises a basic question as to why the Hazara community,  minorities and ordinary civilians are targeted? Here are some of the possible reasons:

1. Hazaras are a soft target. They are easily identifiable by their facial features and known to live in certain neighborhoods in and around Quetta.

2. Police in Baluchistan have miserably failed in bringing to justice the sectarian attackers who are allied with the Taliban and operate with impunity.

3. When the police do arrest and prosecute terror suspects, the conviction rate in Pakistani courts is in single digits. It's either due to inadmissible evidence, poor investigative techniques, lack of witnesses or possibly judges who fear for their lives.  Well-known terror suspects who openly confess to murderous attacks are allowed to walk free by judges for lack of eye-witnesses.

4.  Pakistani parliament has failed to enact serious anti-terrorism legislation in the last 5 years to respond to rising civilian casualties in terrorist attacks. The goverment has also failed to protect witnesses, lawyers and judges involved in prosecuting terrorism suspects.

Possible Solutions: 

1. Enact the “Investigation for Fair trial bill-2012” as soon as possible. This bill makes electronic evidence such as video footage, telephone wire-taps and e-mails admissible in terrorism  cases to reduce reliance on eyewitnesses. 

2. Start a serious witness protection program and provide enhanced security to lawyers and judges in terrorism cases.

3. Train police, prosecutors and judges in modern criminal justice techniques and processes to  increase their effectiveness.

3. Build broad national political consensus for decisive military action in FATA from where the Taliban terrorists and their sectarian allies get support and training to carry out devastating terrorist attacks against innocent civilians throughout Pakistan.

Summary:

Pakistan must now prepare to better protect its civilian population from the intense blow back  as the US intensifies its drone campaign in FATA to ensure safe withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2013 and 2014.

Here's a recent video discussion on the subject:



Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Obama Re-election and Pakistan

Pakistan's Year 2012 in Review

Taliban Attacks on Polio Workers

American CIA Sponsored Fake Vaccination Campaign

Violence Against Social  Change in Pakistan

Silent Social Revolution in Pakistan

The Eclipse of Feudalism in Pakistan

Social and Structural Transformations in Pakistan

Malala Moment: Profiles in Courage-Not!

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[Riaz Haq]

A Pakistani family whose account of a U.S. drone strike in North Waziristan was cited last week in Amnesty International's report on the covert program arrived in Washington on Tuesday, intent on putting a human face on the number of civilian casualties (AFP). According to Nabila Rehman, she was picking okra with her family in their garden last October when a drone strike killed her grandmother and injured seven other people; the U.S. government has never officially acknowledged the strike. The Rehmans, who will appear at a press conference with U.S. Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL) on Tuesday, are also featured in a new documentary by the Brave New Foundation called "Unmanned: America's Drone Wars." http://unmanned.warcosts.com/

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan ZarbeAzb operation targets all militants including Haqqanis:

Pakistan will go after all militant groups in its unfolding operation in the North Waziristan tribal area, including insurgents who target neighboring Afghanistan, in what would be a major shift in policy, the defense minister said.

The minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, told The Wall Street Journal that the military offensive in North Waziristan would target the Haqqani network, a group affiliated with the Afghan Taliban that has been based in the tribal area for more than three decades. The Haqqanis are seen by the U.S. and Afghan governments as one of the main threats to stability in Afghanistan.

Pakistan launched its offensive in North Waziristan with airstrikes three weeks ago, moving on to ground operations on June 30. North Waziristan, part of Pakistan's wild tribal areas along the Afghan border, is a sanctuary for Pakistani Taliban, Afghan insurgents and al Qaeda. Washington has pushed Islamabad for years to take control of the region.

"We will eliminate all sorts of terrorists from our area without any exceptions," said Mr. Asif. "If there are exceptions made, then the purpose of this operation will be defeated. It has to be without making any differentiation between our Taliban and their Taliban, or good Taliban and bad Taliban."

Pakistan has long been accused by neighbors and U.S. officials of backing jihadist groups as its proxies in Afghanistan and India.

Some Pakistani officials in the past have described the Afghan Taliban and some other jihadist groups as "good," while the government combats the more extreme "bad" militant organizations that turned on the Pakistani state.

In particular, Washington and Kabul have repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting the Haqqani network.

But Mr. Asif insisted Pakistan has changed its policy.

"They are all bad Taliban. There are no more good Taliban," he said.

Islamabad is trying to persuade Kabul to attack Pakistani Taliban groups that have taken refuge in eastern Afghanistan before and during the North Waziristan operation. Afghan authorities have indicated they won't act unless they see Pakistan fighting Kabul's enemies, such as the Haqqanis.

"If we have to get rid of these people, we have to get rid of them in totality, because this is something plaguing this area for three decades. Both sides of the Durand line, Pakistan and Afghanistan, we are in dire trouble," said Mr. Asif, referring to the border with Afghanistan.

However, such claims in the past of a tougher approach to militancy have been met with skepticism inside and outside Pakistan.

Saifullah Mahsud, director of the FATA Research Center, an independent think tank in Islamabad, said that according to his information, the Haqqani group had left North Waziristan before the operation.

"Pakistan has the opportunity of establishing its writ in North Waziristan now and stopping militants returning there," said Mr. Mahsud.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-vows-to-target-all-militant...

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan only country in world where majority (57%) views #Iran favorably. Only 16% #Pakistanis negative on #Iran. http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/18/irans-global-image-mostly-negat... …

These are among the key findings of a new survey by the Pew Research Center conducted in 40 countries among 45,435 respondents from March 25 to May 27, 2015.

Iran is viewed negatively by most nations surveyed, with a global median of 58% saying they have an unfavorable opinion of the country that borders Afghanistan in the east and Iraq in the west. Pakistan is the only country polled where a majority (57%) views Iran favorably.

In the Middle East, roughly nine-in-ten Israelis (92%) hold a negative opinion of Iran, including nearly all Israeli Jews (97%) and more than six-in-ten Israeli Arabs (63%).

Attitudes are nearly as negative in Jordan, where 89% have an unfavorable view of Iran. Smaller majorities of Turks, Lebanese and Palestinians also give their regional neighbor low marks. Meanwhile, in Lebanon attitudes divide along religious lines. More than nine-in-ten Lebanese Shia Muslims (95%) express a positive opinion of Iran — the country with the world’s largest Shia Muslim population — compared with 29% of Lebanese Christians and just 5% of Sunni Muslims.

With the exception of Pakistan, publics in the Asia-Pacific region are either mixed or negative in their assessments of Iran. Unfavorable views of the Islamic Republic are especially widespread in Japan and Australia (73% and 67%, respectively). Even in Pakistan, opinion of Iran has somewhat soured, with negative ratings increasing from 8% to 16% over the past year.

Iran’s image also suffers in Latin America, where a median of 61% across six countries express unfavorable views. Publics in Africa, while negative on balance, are more mixed in their assessments of Iran. A median of 39% in nine African nations surveyed view Iran in a negative light, 32% view the nation positively, and a quarter do not offer any opinion. In Nigeria, attitudes differ among the predominant religious groups: 43% of Muslims express favorable views of Iran while only 23% of Christians hold that view.

Amidst the negotiations over the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, publics in the so-called “P5+1” countries are generally critical of Iran. Roughly three-quarters of Americans (76%) view Iran unfavorably, virtually unchanged from last year. Majorities in France (81%), Germany (78%), the UK (62%) and China (61%) share this opinion. Only in Russia do about a third (34%) rate Iran positively, and even here the prevailing view is negative (44%).

[Riaz Haq]

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The leader of a banned Sunni extremist group that is believed to have killed hundreds of Pakistani Shiites in a series of bombings died in a shootout Wednesday after supporters tried to free him from police custody, the Pakistani authorities said.

Thirteen supporters of Malik Ishaq, the leader of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, were also killed in the clash early Wednesday morning in Punjab Province, said Shuja Khanzada, Punjab’s home minister. Mr. Khanzada said armed supporters attacked a police convoy that was transporting Mr. Ishaq, his sons and three of his aides, all of whom had been arrested Saturday on suspicion of involvement in sectarian killings.

The two sons were among the dead, Mr. Khanzada said. Six police officers were wounded, and some of the attackers escaped, according to the police.

Commuters in Karachi last week passed a mosque run by Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat, a group that is ostensibly banned by Pakistan.Extremists Make Inroads in Pakistan’s Diverse SouthJULY 15, 2014
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi has claimed responsibility for the deaths of hundreds of Shiites, including two bombings in the western city of Quetta in early 2013 that killed nearly 200 people. Additionally, Mr. Ishaq was accused of having masterminded a 2009 attack on Sri Lanka’s cricket team in the eastern city of Lahore.

Mr. Ishaq was imprisoned from 1997 to 2011 and had been accused in more than 60 criminal cases, but he was never successfully prosecuted. Analysts called that a reflection of Pakistan’s weak judicial system, in which militants are able to intimidate judges and witnesses, as well as political leaders.

Arif Rafiq, an adjunct fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, who has written extensively on sectarianism and militancy in Pakistan, said Mr. Ishaq’s killing had “significant symbolic value.” His release from prison in 2011 “represented the impunity that anti-Shia terrorists enjoyed in Pakistan,” particularly in Punjab Province, Mr. Rafiq said.

In recent years, however, Mr. Ishaq had been supplanted by a younger generation of militants, Mr. Rafiq said. “Still, his killing is an indication that the Pakistani state is serious about targeting anti-Shia militants,” he said.

Mr. Rafiq noted that Pakistan had seen a substantial decline in sectarian attacks in the past year, since the Pakistani military began an offensive against militant hide-outs in the country’s rugged semiautonomous tribal regions.

Some Pakistanis expressed skepticism about the official account of Mr. Ishaq’s killing, noting that Pakistan, and Punjab Province in particular, has a history of extrajudicial killings of militants by the security forces.

“Malik Ishaq’s killing in a suspect police encounter shows that the state itself does not seem to have faith in its own legal and justice system,” said Omar R. Quraishi, an editor at the ARY News network.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/30/world/asia/malik-ishaq-leader-of-...