Cheap Thar Coal to End Load Shedding in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

Coal is the cheapest and the most common fuel used directly or indirectly to produce electricity and heat in the world today. Global coal consumption was about 6.7 billion tons in 2006 and is expected to increase 48% to 9.98 billion tons by 2030, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). China produced 2.38 billion tons in 2006. India produced about 447.3 million tons and Pakistan mined only about 8 million tons in 2006. 68.7% of China's electricity comes from coal. The United States consumes about 14% of the world total, using 90% of it for generation of electricity. The U.S. coal-fired plants have over 300 GW of capacity.

The Thar desert region in Pakistan is endowed with one of the largest coal reserves in the world. Discovered in early 1990s, the Thar coal has not yet been developed to produce usable energy. With the devastating increases in imported oil bill and the growing shortages of gas and electricity in the country, the coal development is finally beginning to get the attention it deserves. Coal contributes about 20% of the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions but it is the cheapest fuel available, according to Pew Center on Global Climate Change. It can provide usable energy at a cost of between $1 and $2 per MMBtu compared to $6 to $12 per MMBtu for oil and natural gas, and coal prices are relatively stable. Coal is inherently higher-polluting and more carbon-intensive than other energy alternatives. However, coal is so inexpensive that one can spend quite a bit on pollution control and still maintain coal’s competitive position.



At the end of the decade of 1990s when the economy was stagnant, Pakistan had about 1200 MW excess capacity. Between 2000 and 2008, the electricity demand from industries and consumers grew dramatically with the rapid economic expansion that more than doubled the nation's GDP from $60 billion to $170 billion. The Musharraf government added about 3500 MW of capacity during this period which still left a gap of over 1500 MW by 2008. The economy has since slowed to a crawl, the electricity demand has decreased, and yet the nation is suffering the worst ever power outages in the history of Pakistan. As discussed in an earlier post, Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 18,0000 MW, of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. Pakistan Electric Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as they have only been able to give PEPCO much less than the 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the power plants in the country are operating well below installed capacity because the operators are not being paid enough to buy fuel. Circular debt owed to the power producers and oil companies is currently believed to be largely responsible for severe load shedding affecting most of the nation.

The circular debt has assumed alarming portions since 2008, resulting in the current severe power problems. Former finance minister Saukat Tarin recently told the News that “in real terms the circular debt has swelled to Rs108 billion which mainly includes non-payment of Rs42 billion by KESC, Rs21 billion by the government of Sindh and Rs15-16 billion from commercial consumers to the Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco)". Just prior to leaving office, Tarin decided to raise Rs. 25 billion as a small step toward settling the swelling unpaid bills owed to power producers.



Per capita energy consumption in Pakistan is estimated at 14.2 million Btu, which is much higher than Bangladesh's 5 million BTUs per capita but slightly less than India's 15.9 million BTU per capita energy consumption. South Asia's per capita energy consumption is only a fraction of other industrializing economies in Asia region such as China (56.2 million BTU), Thailand (58 million BTU) and Malaysia (104 million BTU), according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on imports that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position. On the other hand, hydro and coal are perhaps underutilized today, as Pakistan has ample potential supplies of both.

The country's creaky and outdated electricity infrastructure loses over 30 percent, some of it due to rampant power theft, of generated power in transit, more than seven times the losses of a well-run system, according to the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank; and a lack of spare high-voltage grid capacity limits the transmission of power from hydroelectric plants in the north to make up for shortfalls in the south.

It does seem that Pakistan is finally getting serious about utilizing its vast coal resources to produce electricity and gas. Talking recently with GeoTV's Hamid Mir, Pepco Managing Director Tahir Basharat Cheema shared the following list of coal projects being launched:

1. The Sind Government has awarded a 1200 MW project to extract Thar coal and produce electricity to Engro Power.

2. A similar 1200 MW project is being undertaken by Pepco in Thar. The Pepco project also includes a 700 Km transmission line to connect Thar plants with the national grid.

3. An experimental project for underground coal gasification is being built by Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr. Mubarakmand to tap underground coal to produce 50 MW.

4. Another experimental 50 MW project using pressure coal gasification is planned by Pepco.

The coal and various renewable energy projects are expected to be online in the next 2 to 5 years. If these projects do succeed and more investors are attracted to the power sector, then Pakistan has the potential to produce about 100,000 MW a year for a century or longer. But these efforts will not help in the short or immediate term. What is urgently needed is decisive action to resolve the circular debt problems and restore power generation to full installed capacity immediately.

Here is a video clip of former president General Musharraf talking about the worst ever load shedding being faced by Pakistanis today:


Related Links:

Pakistan's Twin Energy Crises of Gas and Electricity

Pakistan's Load Shedding and Circular Debt

US Fears Aid Will Feed Graft in Pakistan

Pakistan Swallows IMF's Bitter Medicine

Shaukat Aziz's Economic Legacy

Karachi Tops Mumbai in Stock Performance

Pakistan's Electricity Crisis

Pepco Increases Load Shedding By 5 Hours

Pakistan's Gas Pipeline and Distribution Network

Pakistan's Energy Statistics

US Department of Energy Data

China Signs Power Plant Deals in Pakistan

Pakistan Pursues Hydroelectric Projects

Water Scarcity in Pakistan

Energy from Thorium

Comparing US and Pakistani Tax Evasion

Zardari Corruption Probe

Pakistan's Oil and Gas Report 2010

Circular Electricity Debt Problem

International CNG Vehicles Association

Lessons From IPP Experience in Pakistan

Correlation Between Human Development and Energy Consumption

BMI Energy Forecast Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

Thar is solution to Pakistan's energy crisis, says Murad Ali Shah

https://arynews.tv/thar-solution-pakistans-energy-crisis-murad-ali-...

“Chinese cooperation has proved a landmark in power generation from coal deposits in Thar,” chief minister said. “Chinese companies are increasing power generation from coal in Thar,” he further said.

Pakistan facing a formidable energy crisis that has badly affected economy of the country. The government sees energy generation from massive coal deposits in Sindh’s desert district of Thar could address the country’s energy problems.

Sindh’s Energy Minister Imtiaz Ahmed Shaikh recently announced an additional 1320 Megawatt of electricity from the Thar coal power plant included in the national grid.

He said the trial run to generate 1320 megawatts of electricity from the Shanghai Electric power plant was started today. Meanwhile, 660 MW of electricity has been added from Engro and Hubco power plants.

Sindh energy minister, while talking about the full potential of the coal power project said that a total of 2640 MW of electricity will be supplied to the National Grid from Thar coal soon.

[Riaz Haq]

Top 10 countries with lowest energy consumption per capita
Outside Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines stand out for low energy security


https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/top-10-countrie...


Outside Africa, fast-growing Asia economies such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines use the least primary energy per capita, according to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

People in East Africa, Central Africa and Western Africa use 4.7, 5.7 and 7.2 gigajoules of primary energy per capita per year, respectively, the review notes. Primary energy is that classed as an energy source that has not been subject to any human-engineered conversion processes.

While energy use in these regions matches typically subdued levels of economic development, that is not the case in Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines — countries with few indigenous energy commodities where energy infrastructure has struggled to keep up with the accelerating economic growth of the past years.

Per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh stands at 9.9 gigajoules, BP data shows — the lowest of any country outside Africa. Pakistan consumes 17.1 gigajoules and the Philippines consumes 17.6 gigajoules. By contrast, the average for countries in the OECD is 167.9 gigajoules, while stands at 56.2 gigajoules in non-OECD countries.

Bangladesh has resorted to Russian technology and financing to build the country’s first nuclear plant and thus limit the country’s recurrent power outages, while Pakistan, which already has six nuclear power plants in operation, has been developing liquified natural gas terminals to bump up imports of LNG.

After Sri Lanka, with 17.8 gigajoules, and the Southern Africa region (excluding South Africa) with 23.5 gigajoules, the top 10 is rounded out by two other emerging economic powerhouses — India and Morocco.

India, with 23.3 gigajoules per capita, continues to generate most of the primary energy it through coal and oil. The country is the world’s second-largest consumer of coal after China, although its first renewable energy generation has also come online in the past few years.

Morocco, with 25.6 gigajoules per capita, gets most of its primary energy from oil, although the country boasts the world’s biggest thermal solar power plant, and its renewable energy potential is now being assessed for major cross-border energy generation projects.

[Riaz Haq]

USGS: Pakistan Mining Industry 2019

https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol3/2019/myb3-2019-pakistan.pdf

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2018. In fiscal year 2019 (July 1, 2018, through
June 30, 2019), the mining and quarrying sector contributed
2.6% of the GDP and the growth rate of the mining and
quarrying sector was negative 1.96% compared with 7.72% in
fiscal year 2018 (International Monetary Fund, 2020; State Bank
of Pakistan, 2020a, p. 18–19; 2020b, p. 8; 2020d, p. 3).
The total import value in fiscal year 2019 was $54.8 billion
compared with $60.8 billion in fiscal year 2018. The import
value of mineral fuels, oils, and their distillation products was
$16.0 billion; iron and steel, $3.38 billion; articles of iron or
steel, $840 million; and aluminum and articles of aluminum,
$349 million. The total export value in fiscal year 2019 was
$23.0 billion compared with $23.2 billion in fiscal year 2018.
The export value of mineral fuels, oils, and their distillation
products was $477 million; salt, sulfur, lime, and stone,
$463 million; and copper and articles of copper, $269 million
(State Bank of Pakistan, 2020c, p. 123–124).

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In 2019, the production of lignite was estimated to have
increased by 180%; lead (mine, Pb content), by 68%; feldspar,
by 61%; chromium (mine, Cr2
O3
content), by 46%; zinc (mine,
Zn content), by 39%; talc, by 38%; lead (secondary, refinery),
by 33% (reported); soda ash, by 27%; bentonite, by 24%;
kaolin, by 17%; and sand and gravel (industrial, silica), by 12%.
In contrast, the production of fuller’s earth was estimated to
have decreased by 85%; dolomite, by 57%; bauxite, by 49%;
iron oxide pigment, by 47%; magnesite, by 39%; sulfur (native),
by 38%; pumice, by 33%; raw steel, by 30% (reported);
limestone, by 22%; iron (mine, Fe content) and phosphate rock
(gross weight), by 20% each; barite, by 15%; sand and gravel
(industrial, unspecified), by 13%; rock salt, by 12%; and quartz,

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Copper and Gold.—In 2019, Metallurgical Corporation
of China Ltd. (MCC) applied for an extension of its mining
license for the Saindak copper-gold mine, which was set to
expire in 2022. MCC operated the Saindak Mine through a
50%-owned subsidiary, Saindak Metals Ltd. The company
produced 13,049 metric tons (t) of copper (mine, Cu content)
in 2019, which was an increase of 4.1% from the 12,538 t
produced in 2018. MCC mined mainly the south and north ore
bodies using open pit mining; the deposits were expected to be
depleted of minable resources after 2021. The east ore body of
the mine was estimated to have 278 million metric tons (Mt)
of ore and an expected mine life of 19 years. The exports of
copper and articles thereof from Pakistan to China increased to
$550 million in 2019 from $106 million in 2016

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Natural Gas.—Pakistan was in the process of building five
liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals that were expected to
start operation in 2021 or 2022. The new terminals would triple
Pakistan’s LNG imports and help lessen the gas shortage in
the country. Pakistan had been subject to shortages of natural
gas for power generation, fertilizer production, and household
usages owing to the country’s inability to supply enough gas
from domestic resources, its aged distribution network, and the
difficulty in sourcing LNG cargoes (Nickel, 2019; Abbasi, 2020;
Mohanty and others, 2021).
Petroleum.—Eni Pakistan Ltd. (owned by Eni S.p.A. of Italy,
as operator), Exploration and Production Pakistan BV, Oil and
Gas Development Co., and Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. each held a
25% interest in the Kekra-1 well of the Indus Block G. In 2019,
the consortium ended exploration at the Kekra-1 well after
no reserves of petroleum were found (Hassan, 2019; Rarrick,
2019).