Pakistan's Dietary Habits and Sugar Crisis

[Riaz Haq]

World raw sugar futures hit a 28-year high of 23.52 cents a pound last week as the fears of a bad sugarcane harvest grew stronger. The key background factor is the continuing scarce supply scenario in the global market because of weather factors, particularly in India, the second largest producer of sugarcane, according to the Wall Street Journal. While India is dealing with too little monsoon rain, the largest sugar producer Brazil is being hurt by too much rain.

At 4.89 million tons of annual sugar production, Pakistan is the tenth largest sugar producer in the world, and yet it has to import sugar, exposing it to the effects of sugar shortages and rising prices in the world. Pakistanis consume over 25 Kg of sugar per person versus India's 20Kg. Sugar cost Rs 25 per Kg (30 US cents) at the start of 2009 and now costs more than Rs 50, says independent economic analyst A.B. Shahid. The most pessimistic estimates show a 23 percent decline in sugar crop production this year. While last year Pakistan produced 4.7 million tons, farmers are on track to produce 3.2 million tons this year. That means a severe shortfall as annual national consumption is 4.2 million tons.

Both sugar production and per capita consumption as well as overall calorie intake have been rising in Pakistan. In the last four decades, per capita calorie intake in Pakistan has grown from 1750-2450 (kilo)calories with an average annual growth rate of 0.90%. Nevertheless, 20% of Pakistan's population is still undernourished. Sugar consumption has been showing an increasing trend for the last 15 years. It has increased from 2.89 million tons in 1995-96 to 3.95 million tons in 2005-06. One of the many reasons behind this increase is rise in the total population of the country, which has reached 170 million. The per capita sugar consumption data shows that it has also risen from 22.2 kg in 1995 to 25.8 kg in 2004-05. For 2008-09, the overall sugar consumption is forecast at over 4 million tons, which is less than the target production. But the government is importing about 300,000 tons of sugar to ensure availability of sufficient stock to cover any shortfalls from the usual smuggling to Afghanistan which remains a fact of life in Pakistan.

In addition to relatively large sugar consumption, Pakistanis also consume significantly higher amounts of meat, poultry and milk products than other South Asian nations, getting more protein and almost half their daily, per capita calorie intake from non-food-grain sources.

The fact that Pakistanis have a sweet tooth is not lost on the nation's ruling elite, particularly the powerful political families and the Pakistani military. While the military owns Fauji sugar mills, more than 50% of the sugar in Pakistan is produced in sugar mills owned by the most powerful politicians of all major parties and their families.

The mills reported to be owned by President Asif Ali Zardari’s family and the ruling PPP leaders include Ansari Sugar Mills, Mirza Sugar Mills, Pangrio Sugar Mills, Sakrand Sugar Mills and Kiran Sugar Mills. Ashraf Sugar mills is owned by PPP leader and incumbent ZTBL President Ch Zaka Ashraf.

Kamalia Sugar Mills and Layyah Sugar Mills are owned by PML-N leaders. Former minister Abbas Sarfaraz is the owner of five out of six sugar mills in the NWFP. Nasrullah Khan Dareshak owns Indus Sugar Mills while Jahangir Khan Tareen has two sugar mills; JDW Sugar Mills and United Sugar Mills. PML-Q leader Anwar Cheema owns National Sugar Mills while Chaudhrys family is or was the owner of Pahrianwali Sugar Mills as it is being heard that they have sold the said mills. Senator Haroon Akhtar Khan owns Tandianwala Sugar Mills while Pattoki Sugar Mills is owned by Mian Mohammad Azhar, former Governor Punjab. PML-F leader Makhdoom Ahmad Mehmood owns Jamaldin Wali Sugar Mills. Chaudhry Muneer owns two mills in Rahimyar Khan district and Ch Pervaiz Elahi and former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Khusro Bakhtiar have shares in these mills.

Among other basic food commodities, per million population wheat consumption in Pakistan is 115,000 metric tons versus 63,000 metric tons in India, according to published data.

According to the FAO, the average dairy consumption of the developing countries is still very low (45 kg of all dairy products in liquid milk equivalent), compared with the average of 220 kg in the industrial countries. Few developing countries have per capita consumption exceeding 150 kg (Argentina, Uruguay and some pastoral countries in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Africa). Among the most populous countries, only Pakistan, at 153 kg per capita, has such a level. In South Asia, where milk and dairy products are preferred foods, India has only 64 kg and Bangladesh 14 kg. East Asia has only 10 kg.

While it remains very low by world standards, meat and poultry consumption has also increased significantly in Pakistan over the last decade. Per capita availability of eggs went from 23 in 1991 to 43 in 2005, according to research by N. Daghir. Per capita meat consumption in Pakistan now stands at 12.4 Kg versus India's 4.6 Kg.

In spite of South Asia's growing horticulture industry, the intake of fruits and vegetables in India and Pakistan is surprisingly low at less than 100 grams per day per capita, according to the World Health Organization. This figure is far lower than the 300 grams of fruits and vegetables per person in Australia, EU and the US.

While the average per capita calorie intake of about 2500 calories is within normal range, nutritional balance necessary for good health appears to be lacking in Pakistanis' dietary habits. One way to alleviate the sugar crisis in Pakistan is to reduce sugar consumption and substitute it with greater intake of fruits and vegetables. There is an urgent need for better health and nutritional education through strong public-private partnership to promote healthier eating in Pakistan.

Related Links:

Agricultural Diversification in South Asia

Nutrition in Pakistan

FAO Report on Food Consumption Patterns

Wheat Consumption in India and Pakistan

World of Sugar

Pakistan's Livestock Farming

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan's powerful #political families directly benefit from high support prices set by govt. They produce more than 50% of the sugar in Pakistan in #sugar mills owned by the most powerful #politicians of all major parties and their families. (link: https://www.riazhaq.com/2009/09/solving-pakistans-sugar-crisis.html)

[Riaz Haq]

Sugar consumption per capita reached 23.3 kg in 2013 in Pakistan, according to Faostat. This is 2.19 % more than in the previous year.

https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/sugar-consumption-per-capit...

Historically, sugar consumption per capita in Pakistan reached an all time high of 25.8 kg in 2008 and an all time low of 1.80 kg in 1961. When compared to Pakistan's main peers, sugar consumption per capita in Afghanistan amounted to 7.70 kg, 6.00 kg in China, 17.8 kg in India and 26.2 kg in Iran in 2013.

Pakistan has been ranked 85th within the group of 160 countries we follow in terms of sugar consumption per capita, 11 places above the position seen 10 years ago.

Sugar contains carbohydrates and as this name implies, is composed of carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.

[Riaz Haq]

#ImranKhan goes after #Pakistan's #sugar barons. RYK(Khusroo Bakhtyar) group is the largest beneficiary with total subsidy of Rs4bn, JDW (Jahangir Tareen #PTI) over Rs3bn, (Nawaz) Sharif Group (#PMLN) at Rs1.4bn and Omni Group (Zardari #PPP) at Rs901m. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/04/04/sweet-profit-exporters-...

Making good on his promise of ensuring transparency and accountability in governance, Prime Minister Imran Khan on Saturday not only made the inquiry reports into the sugar and wheat shortage public but also ordered the formation of a commission to probe into the sugar crisis and to conduct a forensic audit of the sugar mills, including some owned by senior members of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The directives came after an inquiry committee formed by the premier to probe into increase in sugar price found out that the export of sugar was not justified and the exporters, including prominent members of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), benefitted in two ways by gaining subsidy and then fetching huge profit from the increasing sugar prices in the local market

The commission has been directed to complete its task by April 25. After the finalisation of its report, the findings will also be made public and any corrective and/or punitive measures required or recommended will be taken by the federal government.

The commission has started its work and nine teams are already on the ground for carrying out forensic analysis of 10 sugar mills including Alliance Sugar mills Ghotki, Al-Arabia Sugar Mills Sargodha, Al-Moiz 1 Sugar Mills DI Khan, Al-Moiz 2 Sugar Mills Mianwali, Hamza Sugar Mills RY Khan, Hunza 1 and Hunza 2 Sugar Mills Faisalabad and Jhang, and JDW 1,2, and 3 Sugar Mills RY Khan and Ghotki.

According to the report, sugar price was increased from Rs 55 per kg in December 2018 to Rs 71.44 per kg in June 2019, despite the fact that General Sales Tax (GST) increase was implemented from July 1, 2019. After the export of sugar in January 2019, its price started increasing immediately in the local market.

The major beneficiaries of the subsidy offered by the government on export of sugar include RYK Group, owned and controlled by Makhdum Omer Shehryar, a relative of Federal Minister for Food Security Makhdum Khusro Bakhtiar, which availed 15.83 per cent of the total export subsidy amounting to Rs3.944 billion. Chaudhry Munir and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) senior leader Moonis Elahi are also partners in this group.

JDW Group owned and controlled by senior PTI leader Jahangir Khan Tareen availed 12.28 per cent of the total export subsidy amounting to Rs3.058bn, while Hunza Sugar Mills availed 11.56 per cent of the total subsidy amounting to Rs 2.879bn. Hunza Sugar Mills is owned by Muhammad Waheed chaudry, Idrees Chaudhry and Saeed Chaudhry.

Sugar mills owned by the Sharif family availed 5.91 per cent of the total export subsidy amounting to Rs1.472bn.

The report also revealed that in the past few years the production of sugar was historically more than the local requirements, therefore it was imperative to probe and include this aspect related to export of sugar including any subsidy given, its impact on local sugar prices and eventually major beneficiaries of such export subsidies.

The production of sugar in 2016-17 and 2017-18 was more than the estimated domestic consumption of the country, hence the sugar was exported from Pakistan.

The estimated domestic consumption of Pakistan is around 5.2 million metric tons per year. In the year 2016-17, Pakistan had a record 7.08 MMT production of sugar while the production was 6.63 MMT in 2017-2018.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan fat intake 67 g/person/day

India 48 g/person/day

World: 79 g/person/day
Developed countries: 131 g/person/day
Developing World: 66 g/person/day
Sub-Saharan Africa: 46 g/person/day

http://chartsbin.com/view/1156


----------------

Livestock accounts for the biggest contribution to agriculture sector and there has been a quite interesting trend in the livestock products where every single product has witnessed a handsome growth in production except mutton. In case of mutton production, there has been a shift in trend, first increasing production from 2001-2004 followed by a sharp decline in 2005-06 and then increasing again. First look at the data suggest that this sharp decline in the production of mutton is due to the substitution effect as the production of its close substitutes (beef and poultry meat) has experienced a sharp increase for the same year but this notion requires detailed analysis (see, Figure 3). Beef production has seen a growth of 100 percent from 2001-2016 while it’s the poultry products which has seen the sharpest growth with the growth of 245 percent in poultry meat and 116 percent in the production of eggs. Increasing by every year, milk production in the country has observed a growth of 67 percent from 2001-2016.

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83522/1/MPRA_paper_83522.pdf

[Riaz Haq]

Agriculture Development
in the Central Asia Regional
Economic Cooperation Program
Member Countries
Review of Trends, Challenges,
and Opportunities
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEArch INSTITuTE
DECEMBER 2019

Food Intake
The average daily per capita calorific intake was estimated at 2,440 kcal in 2013. Figure A.62 displays the
proportion of calorific intake contributed by each of the major food groups. Cereals accounted for 48% of
daily calorific intake in 2013. Calorific intake from animal sources comprised 22%, while fruit and vegetables
accounted for 2%. The average daily per capita protein consumption was estimated at 65.5 grams, while the
average dietary energy supply adequacy was estimated to be 108% in 2015–2017.

https://www.adb.org/publications/trends-agricultural-development-ca...

[Riaz Haq]

Highlights (food security, nutrition and health conditions)

http://www.fao.org/3/ca5585en/ca5585en.pdf

• Pakistan’s food security and nutrition status has much room to improve (slide 12).
• In 2015–2017, one-fifth (20.5 percent) of its population was undernourished; the percentage
was higher than the Southern Asian average (15.2 percent), the Asian average (11.5 percent)
and the world average (10.8 percent).
• In 2012, 45.0 percent of children in Pakistan were stunted (chronic malnutrition); the
percentage was higher than the Southern Asian average of 37.9 percent, the Asian average of
27.1 percent and the world average of 24.9 percent.
• In 2016, 52.1 percent of Pakistan’s women of reproductive age (15–49 years) were anaemic; the
percentage was much higher than the world average (32.8 percent).
• Pakistan’s total protein intake increased from 59.4 g/day per capita in 1993 to 65.5 g/day in 2013
(slide 13). Its 65.5 g/day per capita total protein intake in 2013 was slightly higher than the Southern
Asian average (61.7 g/day), yet much lower than the world average (81.2 g/day) (slide 14).
• Pakistan’s life expectancy at birth in 2017 was 67 years (68 years for women and 66 years for men),
which was lower than the Southern Asian average (69 years), the Asian average (73 years), the
developing regions average (71 years) and the world average of 72 years at that time (slide 15).

Pakistan: 20.5 percent of the population (nearly 40 million people) were undernourished in
the mid-2010s – the percentage was higher than the Southern Asian average (15.2 percent),
Asian average (11.5 percent) and world average (10.8 percent); a large proportion (45 percent
in 2012) of children were stunted.

Pakistan: Total protein intake increased from 59.4 g/day per capita in 1993
to 65.5 g/day per capita in 2013; the share of animal protein in total protein
increased from 33.4 percent to 41.6 percent, yet the share of fish and
seafood declined from 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent.

Pakistan’s total protein intake in 2013 was 65.5 g/day per capita, slightly higher than the Southern Asian
average (61.7 g) but only 80 percent of the world average (81.2 g); its animal protein was 41.6 percent of
total protein, slightly higher than the world average (39.6 percent) and much higher than the Southern
Asian average (22.5 percent); its fish protein was 0.9 percent of total protein, much lower than the
Southern Asian average (3.1 percent) and world average (6.5 percent).

Pakistan: In 2017, life expectancy at birth was 67 years, lower than the Southern Asian
average (69), developing regions average (71) and world average (72); women are
expected to live longer than men in Pakistan (68 years versus 66 years).

Highlights (contribution of fish to food and nutrition)
• Pakistan’s 27.3 g/day per capita animal protein intake in 2013 was slightly lower than the world average
(32.1 g/day) but twice as much as the Southern Asian average (13.9 g/day) (slide 18), yet fish
contributed only 2.2 percent of the country’s animal protein intake in 2013 (slide 19), declining from
3.8 percent in 1993 (slide 20), much lower than the Southern Asian average (13.7 percent) and world
average (16.3 percent) (slide 19).
• In 2013, 82.8 percent of Pakistan’s fish production was food fish for direct human consumption, and
17.2 percent was for non-food uses (slide 21).
• In 2013, 98.8 percent of Pakistan’s food fish supply was from domestic production, and food fish import
accounted for 1.2 percent (slide 21).
• In 2013, 67.1 percent of Pakistan’s food fish utilization was for domestic consumption, and 32.9 percent
was for export (slide 21).
• Only one-third of the increase in Pakistan’s food fish supply during 1993–2013 went to domestic
consumption; the other two-thirds were accounted for by net export. The 28 percent increase in total
fish consumption during the period is only half of the 56 percent growth in its population, resulting in a
decline in its per capita fish consumption from 2.8 kg in 1993 to 1.9 kg in 2013 (slide 22).

[Riaz Haq]

Sugar and spice
Khurram HusainUpdated April 09, 2020

https://www.dawn.com/news/1547706

Listen carefully to what Jahangir Tareen, the man at the centre of the storm, had to say during his first two TV appearances since the scandal broke. Both appearances were on Monday night, one at 8pm and the other at 10pm. And his message during both was the same.

The first thing he did in both interviews was to underline his deep roots in the party, which critically for him go back to the aftermath of the defeat of 2013 and the ensuing days of rage that were the dharnas. In doing so, he let the cat out of the bag, ie one of Imran Khan’s principal grievances aired from every platform he had at his disposal in those days, about the 2013 elections being ‘rigged’ and the ‘35 punctures’ was in fact wrong.

“There was rigging,” Tareen said, “but only on a few seats, mostly it was all just about raising a hue and cry.” He then went on to explain how, in the aftermath of the elections, he showed Imran Khan the scale of the defeat the party had just suffered. “Half the seats in Punjab that we lost in 2013, we were not even in second place; in some cases, we were not even on the table, we were third, fourth or fifth! In those in which we came second, we secured 20 per cent of the vote, and in 66pc of them, we didn’t even get 20pc of the vote!”

He says he tried to explain to the prime minister what that meant. “We had the wrong candidates, we need to change our candidates, this is Punjab, there are political families here and until you bring them in you cannot become prime minister,” he said.

-------------------

It will be instructive to see how all this develops, but if history is any guide, then it is likely to not go very far. Already the affair has blown the lid off. Somebody like Tareen saying on national TV that the post-2013 rigging allegations were nothing but ‘noise’ and the election was lost because the party ran with the wrong candidates is explosive material. What else may come spilling out if this factional fighting intensifies?

There is one person who cannot afford to have this escalate, and that is Imran Khan himself. Last year, when the medicine price hike shook his government, he was moved to fire his then health minister, Aamir Mehmood Kiani, an old stalwart of the party. The firing happened in April 2019, and by July of that same year, Kiani was appointed secretary general of the party. Today, he appears standing next to Imran Khan on important occasions.

The sugar cartels are not worried. Watch Tareen’s appearances carefully, note the soft, understated confidence, the chuckles when the scale and scope of his meddling in government affairs is read out to him. But above all, note the quiet smirk on his face throughout the interviews. That is what says it all.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Daal Consumption Declines Sharply As Meat Consumption Rises

https://www.riazhaq.com/2018/04/pakistan-daal-consumption-declines....

Pakistan's per capita daal (pulse) consumption has sharply declined to about 7 kg/person from about 15 Kg/person in 1960s, according to data released by Food and Agriculture Organization and reported in Pakistani media. Meat has replaced it as the main source of protein with per capita meat consumption rising from 11.7 kg in 2000 to 32 kg in 2016. It is projected to rise to 47 kg by 2020, according to a paper published in the Korean Journal of Food Science of Animal Resources.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan: Imran Khan tackles sugar barons in push to hold on to power

https://www.ft.com/content/0dcae657-3964-4951-8e63-bbaa86e1d893



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https://www.ft.com/content/0dcae657-3964-4951-8e63-bbaa86e1d893

When Imran Khan was elected Pakistan’s prime minister in July 2018, he tasked his top adviser Jahangir Tareen with recruiting independent members of parliament to support him after failing to win an outright majority.

The sugar baron criss-crossed Pakistan in his private jet scooping up politicians one by one, flashing a winning smile as he welcomed them to the party alongside Mr Khan. His nationwide headhunt was immortalised in satirical memes that showed him leaping out of his luxury SUV to capture candidates and successfully recruiting others from Mars.

Mr Tareen's horse-trading gave Mr Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or the Movement for Justice, a razor-thin majority by the time the former cricket superstar was sworn in three weeks later, with many of the new recruits coming from the leading political families of Punjab, the country's most populous province and heartland of the powerful sugar industry. 

The formation of PTI’s parliamentary majority perfectly captured the indispensable role of sugar barons in Pakistan's government, who along with the military and Islamic groups dominate the country's politics. In the absence of an organised public donation system for campaign funding, the barons bankroll every party in Pakistan, simultaneously serving as MPs and, in Nawaz Sharif’s case, as prime minister.

That cozy relationship was upended in April when Mr Khan released the initial results of a probe into a 20 per cent rise in the price of the commodity over the past year that has prompted heavy criticism of the sugar industry.

---------------------



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The calculation is straightforward. Mr Khan has been under intense pressure from the military, which has undermined his authority during the coronavirus crisis, and is encroaching on his civilian government. In a bid to re-establish his political standing with the people, he has decided to do battle with the sugar barons. 

The probe alleged Mr Tareen and others close to the ruling party colluded to influence policy that allowed them to continue exporting sugar despite low stocks and benefit from an export subsidy worth Rs2.5bn ($15m). They then subsequently gained, the report said, from the steep rise in prices caused by the sugar shortages at home.

The final report — which could pave the way for criminal prosecutions — is to be released later in May. 

[Riaz Haq]

#SugarInquiryReport: Major #Pakistan #sugar mills underreported sales, committed fraud. Culprits include top sugar-mill-owning political families: #PMLN(Salman Shahbaz Sharif), #PMLQ (Moonis Elahi) , #PPP (Zardari) , #PTI (Jahangir Tareen). #democracy https://www.dawn.com/news/1558734

Information Minister Shibli Faraz and Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on Accountability Shehzad Akbar on Thursday revealed details from a report issued by the Sugar Forensic Commission (SFC) constituted to investigate and assign responsibility for the shortage and price hike of the commodity in the country in recent times.

Addressing a press conference in Islamabad alongside the information minister, Akbar said the commission's report, which had already been discussed by the federal cabinet earlier today, revealed that six major sugar mill groups were acting as "cartels".

"They hold 51 per cent of the total supply," he added.

"A mill called Alliance from Rahim Yar Khan — partially owned by Pakistan Muslim League Quaid (PML-Q) senior leader Moonis Elahi — was audited. It showed that between 2014 to 2018, farmers faced an 11-14pc systematic cut, which translated into Rs970 million and was a huge blow to them," Akbar said.

He added that the mill under-reported sugar sales "for years" and sold the commodity to unnamed buyers and had committed violations under the Pakistan Penal Code.

Akbar also mentioned the JDW sugar mill in which PTI stalwart Jahangir Tareen has a 21pc stake. He said according to the report, the mill committed "double booking, under-reporting and over-invoicing".

"The report noted that the mill [JDW] under-invoiced sales from bagasse and molasses which resulted in 25pc cost inflation. They also committed corporate fraud whereby money was transferred from their PLC to their private company.

"Forward sales, satta, unnamed sales have all been associated with JDW too."

The Al Arabiya mill owned by Salman Shahbaz Sharif was also audited, the SAPM said, adding that it was found to have committed fraud worth Rs400m through informal receipts and market manipulation.

Akbar said the report had proven what PM Imran Khan had always maintained.

"Whenever a businessman comes into politics, he will always do business even at the expense of the poor. So his [PM's] thinking has been validated. A certain business community has captured the market and as a result, people are suffering," he said.

He added that the report will be available online shortly for anyone to read following the prime minister's orders.

Akbar said that the report revealed that certain sugar mills also used informal receipts. "It was ultimately the farmer who was crushed because there was no official record. The mill owners showed the price of production as more than the support price which meant that farmers earned less."

He added that mill owners also engaged in informal banking with the farmers, which hurt the latter because it was an unregulated process. "This gave the mill owners a profit of up to 35pc," he said.

Akbar said it was the first time that an "independent inquiry" had been conducted into the cost of production. "In 2017-18, sugar mills determined the cost of production at Rs51 per kilo whereas the report gave an estimate of Rs38 instead," he said.

"In 2018-19, sugar mills calculated cost price at Rs52.60 while the report gave an estimate of Rs40. [The sugar mill owners] purchased sugarcane at a lower price but showed a higher price in the invoices," he said.

The SAPM said the report also pointed out that the sucrose content as shown by Pakistani mill owners (9.5pc to 10.5pc) was less than the international standard.