Pakistan's Dietary Habits and Sugar Crisis

[Riaz Haq]

World raw sugar futures hit a 28-year high of 23.52 cents a pound last week as the fears of a bad sugarcane harvest grew stronger. The key background factor is the continuing scarce supply scenario in the global market because of weather factors, particularly in India, the second largest producer of sugarcane, according to the Wall Street Journal. While India is dealing with too little monsoon rain, the largest sugar producer Brazil is being hurt by too much rain.

At 4.89 million tons of annual sugar production, Pakistan is the tenth largest sugar producer in the world, and yet it has to import sugar, exposing it to the effects of sugar shortages and rising prices in the world. Pakistanis consume over 25 Kg of sugar per person versus India's 20Kg. Sugar cost Rs 25 per Kg (30 US cents) at the start of 2009 and now costs more than Rs 50, says independent economic analyst A.B. Shahid. The most pessimistic estimates show a 23 percent decline in sugar crop production this year. While last year Pakistan produced 4.7 million tons, farmers are on track to produce 3.2 million tons this year. That means a severe shortfall as annual national consumption is 4.2 million tons.

Both sugar production and per capita consumption as well as overall calorie intake have been rising in Pakistan. In the last four decades, per capita calorie intake in Pakistan has grown from 1750-2450 (kilo)calories with an average annual growth rate of 0.90%. Nevertheless, 20% of Pakistan's population is still undernourished. Sugar consumption has been showing an increasing trend for the last 15 years. It has increased from 2.89 million tons in 1995-96 to 3.95 million tons in 2005-06. One of the many reasons behind this increase is rise in the total population of the country, which has reached 170 million. The per capita sugar consumption data shows that it has also risen from 22.2 kg in 1995 to 25.8 kg in 2004-05. For 2008-09, the overall sugar consumption is forecast at over 4 million tons, which is less than the target production. But the government is importing about 300,000 tons of sugar to ensure availability of sufficient stock to cover any shortfalls from the usual smuggling to Afghanistan which remains a fact of life in Pakistan.

In addition to relatively large sugar consumption, Pakistanis also consume significantly higher amounts of meat, poultry and milk products than other South Asian nations, getting more protein and almost half their daily, per capita calorie intake from non-food-grain sources.

The fact that Pakistanis have a sweet tooth is not lost on the nation's ruling elite, particularly the powerful political families and the Pakistani military. While the military owns Fauji sugar mills, more than 50% of the sugar in Pakistan is produced in sugar mills owned by the most powerful politicians of all major parties and their families.

The mills reported to be owned by President Asif Ali Zardari’s family and the ruling PPP leaders include Ansari Sugar Mills, Mirza Sugar Mills, Pangrio Sugar Mills, Sakrand Sugar Mills and Kiran Sugar Mills. Ashraf Sugar mills is owned by PPP leader and incumbent ZTBL President Ch Zaka Ashraf.

Kamalia Sugar Mills and Layyah Sugar Mills are owned by PML-N leaders. Former minister Abbas Sarfaraz is the owner of five out of six sugar mills in the NWFP. Nasrullah Khan Dareshak owns Indus Sugar Mills while Jahangir Khan Tareen has two sugar mills; JDW Sugar Mills and United Sugar Mills. PML-Q leader Anwar Cheema owns National Sugar Mills while Chaudhrys family is or was the owner of Pahrianwali Sugar Mills as it is being heard that they have sold the said mills. Senator Haroon Akhtar Khan owns Tandianwala Sugar Mills while Pattoki Sugar Mills is owned by Mian Mohammad Azhar, former Governor Punjab. PML-F leader Makhdoom Ahmad Mehmood owns Jamaldin Wali Sugar Mills. Chaudhry Muneer owns two mills in Rahimyar Khan district and Ch Pervaiz Elahi and former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Khusro Bakhtiar have shares in these mills.

Among other basic food commodities, per million population wheat consumption in Pakistan is 115,000 metric tons versus 63,000 metric tons in India, according to published data.

According to the FAO, the average dairy consumption of the developing countries is still very low (45 kg of all dairy products in liquid milk equivalent), compared with the average of 220 kg in the industrial countries. Few developing countries have per capita consumption exceeding 150 kg (Argentina, Uruguay and some pastoral countries in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Africa). Among the most populous countries, only Pakistan, at 153 kg per capita, has such a level. In South Asia, where milk and dairy products are preferred foods, India has only 64 kg and Bangladesh 14 kg. East Asia has only 10 kg.

While it remains very low by world standards, meat and poultry consumption has also increased significantly in Pakistan over the last decade. Per capita availability of eggs went from 23 in 1991 to 43 in 2005, according to research by N. Daghir. Per capita meat consumption in Pakistan now stands at 12.4 Kg versus India's 4.6 Kg.

In spite of South Asia's growing horticulture industry, the intake of fruits and vegetables in India and Pakistan is surprisingly low at less than 100 grams per day per capita, according to the World Health Organization. This figure is far lower than the 300 grams of fruits and vegetables per person in Australia, EU and the US.

While the average per capita calorie intake of about 2500 calories is within normal range, nutritional balance necessary for good health appears to be lacking in Pakistanis' dietary habits. One way to alleviate the sugar crisis in Pakistan is to reduce sugar consumption and substitute it with greater intake of fruits and vegetables. There is an urgent need for better health and nutritional education through strong public-private partnership to promote healthier eating in Pakistan.

Related Links:

Agricultural Diversification in South Asia

Nutrition in Pakistan

FAO Report on Food Consumption Patterns

Wheat Consumption in India and Pakistan

World of Sugar

Pakistan's Livestock Farming

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistanis consume over 170 Kg of milk per capita and it's growing, according to FAO.

http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/pplpi/docarc/wp44_3.pdf

Growing milk consumption can help reduce malnutrition in Pakistan.

Here's a story illustrating the value of milk in reducing malnutrition in Africa:

WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran kept a promise she made to WFP-supported Rilima health centre last July by giving two cows worth 1,360,000 Frw to help reduce malnutrition among poor communities in the area.

WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran kept a promise she made to WFP-supported Rilima health centre last July by giving two cows worth 1,360,000 Frw to help reduce malnutrition among poor communities in the area.

The milk produced by the cows will be used to feed severely malnourished children and breast feeding mothers. “The health centre expects to get 50 litres of milk to feed over 200 malnourished children per day,” says Pascal Habyarimana assistant director of the health centre.
Rilima nutrition centre assists more than 37,000 people in the area. WFP provides monthly fortified supplementary food to malnourished children under the age of five years and malnourished pregnant or nursing women.

“Since 2009, more than 20,000 malnourished children have been supported and recovered from malnutrition", says WFP Rwanda Country Director Abdoulaye Balde. "WFP will continue to provide relevant suport to reduce malnutrition among poor communities in Rilima sector”.
Parents and nursing women come to the centre not only to collect fortified food provided by WFP but also to be trained on good nutrition practices. Training is focused mainly on balanced meals, hygiene, disease prevention and family planning.
The idea is that, after receiving assistance from nutritoon centres, parents can become agents for change in their communities with the help of a a trained community health worker.

Local mothers are currently learning how to organize vegetable gardens at home. A garden can be established on a small plot and maintained with waste water from the kitchen. The nutrition centre itself has a model garden and vegetables from it are used for cooking demonstrations.
In partnership with World Vision and Rilima health centre, beneficiaries are encouraged to develop good cooking practice at home and share them with their neighbours.

http://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-executive-director-donates-cows-redu...

[Riaz Haq]

Here's a Bloomberg story on Pakistan govt's politically motivated decision to export more sugar:

A shipping subsidy and lower excise tax linked to the export of as much as 1.2 million metric tons of sugar by Pakistan may lead to low inventory and high domestic prices, a unit of the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

The decision by Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee of the cabinet and the Federal Board of Revenue “is being heavily criticized as a politically motivated move by the government to garner support from the sugar industry in the upcoming elections,” the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report posted today on its website.

Stockpiles may drop to a “precariously low level” of 400,000 tons, down from an average of 1 million tons in the past five years, according to the report.

On March 6, the coordination committee approved an inland freight subsidy of about $18 a ton on exports of as much as 1.2 million tons after previously setting the quota at 895,000, according to the report. The federal excise duty on domestic sales was lowered to 0.5 percent from 8 percent to provide an increased incentive to export, according to the report.

“The government efforts to increase the competitiveness of Pakistani sugar in the international market by means of providing direct payment to millers for export could be a violation” of World Trade Organization obligations under an agriculture accord, according to the report.

The government of President Asif Ali Zardari became the first civilian administration to complete its full term. General elections are scheduled for May.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/pakistan-sugar-policy-may-...

[Riaz Haq]

Highlighting various activities, HP Cogen-Pak Project Director Omar Malik said the programme is currently working in collaboration with 35 sugar, 14 financial institutions and five technology providers, while seven bankable feasibility studies are already under way. Assessment for the pipeline and capacity building of Pakistani boiler manufacturers is also expected to start in December this year.
While talking to The Express Tribune, Malik said that it is to promote sustainable production of energy for export of surplus electrical power to the national grid through replication of existing technologies in the sugar sector.
“We are also trying to mobilise relevant public sector authorities for the formulation of a regulatory regime for bagasse based power projects,” he said. “Training of technical staff of sugar mills on standardised design and technology selection is also part of the process.”
The event was attended by representatives of the Ministry of Water and Power, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority, Private Power Infrastructure Board, Alternative Energy Development Board, State Bank of Pakistan, Climate Change Division, Pakistani boiler manufacturers and sugar mill representatives.
Pakistan’s sugar sector has an annual availability of 4.4 million metric tons of bagasse, sugar mill waste.
To generate heat and electricity for its energy needs, sugar sector is using inefficient low pressure cogeneration system, consuming 46% more bagasse compared to the High Pressure Cogeneration.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/783866/boiler-technology-sweet-way-for-...

[Riaz Haq]

KARACHI: The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has awarded licences to two sugar mill-owners for setting up bagasse-based power generation in Sindh with a cumulative capacity of 45MW, officials said on Thursday.

The licences have been issued to Mehran Sugar Mills Limited for its 14.06MW bagasse-based generation facility in Tando Allahyar and Alliance Sugar Mills (Pvt) Limited for its 30MW co-generation plant in Ghotki, they said.

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet in its meeting held on March 6, 2013, had approved the framework for power co-generation 2013 bagasse and biomass, as an addendum to the Renewable Energy Policy 2006.

This framework is effective for all high pressure co-generation projects, utilising bagasse and biomass, the officials said.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority had already approved Rs10.50 per unit as the upfront tariff for the power generation through sugar mills by utilising sugarcane bagasse.

This upfront tariff has been approved to encourage sugar mills to generate around 1,500MW on fast-track basis.

At present, hydel generation is costing Rs2.50 per unit, generation through natural gas is costing around Rs5 per unit, thermal generation from Rs14 to Rs18 per unit and electricity generated through diesel is costing Rs23 to Rs28 per unit, the officials said.

The approval of the upfront tariff for sugar mills will encourage them to plan their investment in this new sector for steering the country out of the power crisis, the officials said, adding, the government plans to generate around 3,000MW cheaper electricity through sugarcane bagasse on fast-track basis and investors will be facilitated and encouraged.

Necessary amendments will also be made to the existing co-generation and renewable energy policies to make it simplified and investor-friendly, they said.

Pakistan is the fifth largest producer of sugarcane with the production of 50 million tons of sugarcane annually, yielding over 10 million tons of bagasse.

Power generation from bagasse will not only reduce the furnace oil import, but also save Rs33 billion to Rs49 billion worth of foreign exchange per annum, the officials said.

The country has 87 sugar mills with the capacity to generate 3,000MW from bagasse in winter season.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-277319-Sugar-mill-owners-aw...

[Riaz Haq]

Post-Panama case Pakistan
Dr Ikramul Haq, Huzaima Bukhari August 27, 2017 Leave a comment

The institutional structure of economy is designed to generate rents for the elite at the expense of the middle classes and the poor. So what is at stake?

http://tns.thenews.com.pk/post-panama-case-pakistan/

The hidden wealth of some of the world’s most prominent leaders, politicians and celebrities has been revealed by an unprecedented leak of millions of documents that show the myriad ways in which the rich can exploit secretive offshore tax regimes — The Panama Papers: how the world’s rich and famous hide their money offshore [The Guardians, April 3, 2016]
Through the report titled, Panama Papers: Politicians, Criminal & Rogue Industry That Hide Their Cash, some of the crooks of the world — drug dealers, mafias, corrupt politicians and tax evaders — have been exposed. Pakistanis who are part of this undesirable club are unveiled through a year-long investigation project by journalist Umar Cheema in his write-up, Pak politicians, businessmen own companies abroad [The News, April 4, 2016].
Post-Panama case Pakistan is emerging as a dangerous place where the government is openly protecting and patronising the convicted and accused. There is no will to end state-sponsorship of organised crimes. Notorious laws — sections 5 and 9 of the Protection of Economic Reforms Act, 1992 and section 111(4) of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 — are still protecting dirty money, financing of terrorism and encouraging tax evasion. In the presence of such laws, the judiciary has punished the three-time elected prime minister — an unprecedented move that can be a starting point to end mafia-like rule in Pakistan as happened in Colombia after years of power of dirty money muzzling institutions or eliminating those who were not purchasable.

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How can we eliminate corruption and tax evasion in Pakistan in the presence of permanent money-laundering and tax amnesty scheme in the form of section 111(4) of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 that facilitates the whitening of dirty money and tax evaded funds. It ensures that for money brought into Pakistan through normal banking channels no question would be asked by tax officials or FIA. Through this section, criminals and tax evaders get their undeclared money whitened by paying just an extra 3 to 4 per cent to any money exchange dealer to get remittances fixed in their names.
It is thus clear, brilliantly explained by Dr. Akmal Hussain in Restructuring for economic democracy, that “the institutional structure of Pakistan’s economy is designed to generate rents for the elite at the expense of the middle classes and the poor.” It is this structural characteristic of the economy and not just bribery that prevents sustained high economic growth and equity in Pakistan. Unless we change this structure of economy, the morbid story of corruption and tax evasion will continue. In the presence of these maladies, no decision of Supreme Court can help Pakistan progress and become an egalitarian state.

[Riaz Haq]

India ranks 43rd in the global ranking in average per capita tea consumption with 0.73 kg compared with 7.54 kgs in Turkey, 4.34 kgs in Morocco, 2.74 kgs in United Kingdom and 1.01 kgs in Pakistan.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/tea-board-on-prom...

Per capita consumption of tea
Country Quantity (Per KG)
Turkey 7.54
Morocco 4.34
Ireland 3.22
United Kingdom 2.74
UAE 1.89
Kuwait 1.61
Russia 1.21
Iran 1.07
Pakistan 1.01
India 0.73
Source: Industry, Wikipedia


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A massive increase of 35.8 per cent in per capita consumption of tea in Pakistan has been recorded from 2007 to 2016.

According to the current market situation and medium-term outlook, published by the Food and Agriculture (FAO) of the United Nations, Pakistan is among the seven countries where per capita consumption of tea has been increased.

The highest increase was seen in Malawi with 565.2pc, followed by China 128.6pc, Rwanda 110.2pc, Turkey 25.9pc, Indonesia 26.6pc and Libya 39.8pc.

Currently, black tea consumption in Pakistan has been estimated at 1,72,911 tonnes which is expected to increase to 2,50,755 tonnes in 2027, the FAO report projects. This showed in next 10 years, tea consumption will increase by 77,844 tonnes.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1415762

[Riaz Haq]

As a food item, milk (both milk and liquid milk equivalents) is second only to cereals in the level of per capita consumption in Pakistan ,32 which nationally is 190 litres.33 Province-wise, per capita consumption stands at 246 kg in Sindh, 132 kg in Punjab , 86 kg in North-West Frontier (NWFP) and 108 kg in Baluchistan .

http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0588e/I0588E07.htm

[Riaz Haq]

USDA Pakistan Annual Sugar Report states that total per capita refined sugar consumption is estimated at 25 kilograms and it is based on improved supply and strong demand. Falling behind Pakistan are other countries of the region like India with 14 kg/person, China with 11 kg/person and Bangladesh with 10 kg/person.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/consumption-trends-sugar-pakistan-ja...

[Riaz Haq]

Despite a generous export subsidy aimed at moving 2017/18 sugar off the domestic market, stocks continue to rise as only 1 million metric tons of sugar that are expected to be exported, well below the 2 million metric tons that were eligible for a subsidy. 2018/19 stocks are projected at 4.7 million metric tons, equivalent to nearly a full year of domestic consumption. Pakistan’s marketing year (MY) 2018/19 sugar production is forecast at 6.5 million tons, down 12 percent from the revised 2017/18 estimate as delays in cane payments and reduced expectations surrounding support pricing are prompting some farmer to switch to other crops such as cotton. 


https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/pakistan-sugar-annual-1

[Riaz Haq]

#Sugar Is Muscling Out #Cotton in #Pakistan. Farmers have shifted to sugar cane from cotton because of higher government support prices, which have increased threefold in a decade, crippling #export prospects and increasing #imports https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sugar-muscling-cotton-pakistan-06080... via @YahooFinance 

Pakistan has cut its cotton production estimate for this year as competition from other crops shrinks the planted area in the country’s biggest growing province, according to a government official.

The food ministry reduced its target to 12.7 million bales of 170 kilograms apiece for the year through March from 15 million bales previously, the official said, asking not to be identified because of internal policy. Pakistan is the world’s fifth-largest grower, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

While output is still forecast to be higher than last year, the revision will be a blow for Pakistan’s $13 billion textiles sector, which employs 10 million people, and accounts for about 8% of the economy and more than half foreign exchange earnings. The country is spending about $1.5 billion a year on cotton imports due to a shortage, said Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer of Arif Habib Commodities.

The target has been revised because competing crops like sugar, corn and rice are limiting the area under cultivation in Punjab, the official said. The estimate for the province has been cut to 7.9 million bales from 10.6 million bales.

Sugar Rush

Farmers have shifted to sugar cane from cotton because of higher government support prices, which have increased threefold in a decade. The nation’s sugar area surged 18% in three years to 1.34 million hectares in 2017-18, before slipping last year mainly due to water shortages.

Provinces set support prices for sugar cane to establish a minimum amount that farmers receive from mills.

After climbing to 14 million bales in 2014-15, cotton production is estimated to have declined to 9.9 million bales in 2018-19, the lowest in at least 17 years, mainly because of reduced acreage. The area has shrunk about 20% since 2014-15, according to government data.

Locust Threat

This year’s cotton crop is facing another threat. A massive swarm of locusts has migrated from Iran to Pakistan. The government has deployed aircraft and spray-mounted vehicles to treat about 10,000 acres in Sindh province, Muhammad Hashim Popalzai, secretary of the food ministry, said last month. Authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage.

Pakistan is desperate to prevent a further decline in cotton output as it seeks to shore up the economy after securing this month a 13th bailout of about $6 billion from the International Monetary Fund. Cotton imports by the textile industry more than doubled in three years to 2017-18, mainly from the U.S. and India, according to central bank data.

Lower production of cotton not only crippled export prospects, but instead caused hefty imports, according to the latest quarterly report of the State Bank of Pakistan. Still, those purchases are now coming more cheaply, with futures trading at their lowest level in three years in New York.

“We are badly hurt,” said Asif Inam, vice chairman of All Pakistan Textile Mills Association. About 30 textile mills have shut down in the last five years partly due to poor availability of cotton, he said.