Pakistan Stock Market Among World's Best Performers in 2024

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan's KSE-100 index soared 86% in 2024, making it the second best among major indexes, according to Bloomberg News. The 2024 performance of KSE-100 represents its best year since 2002 when it shot up 112%. The top 3 performing stock markets in 2024 were Argentina (114%), Pakistan (88%) and Kenya (79%), according to Topline Securities. The US markets posted double digit gains with the AI-driven tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 up 27.6%. Small and medium US companies performed well with the Russell 2000 Index edging out India's Sensex with an 8.9% return.  

Pakistan Among Top Performing Stock Markets in 2024. Source: Bloomberg

Clearly, the $7 billion IMF program helped restore some investor confidence in Pakistan's economy in 2024. It was also boosted by remittances from overseas Pakistanis in  July-October 2024 which soared nearly 35% YoY to $11.8 billion as compared to $8.8 billion in July-Oct 2023. The fact that the KSE100 shares valuations relative to earnings still remain at historic lows (PE ratio of just 5.9) is an indication that investors have doubts about the sustainability of the economic improvements in the country. Among the top investor concerns appear to be worsening internal security situation and rising political instability. 

History of Pakistan's KSE-100 Returns Since 1995. Source: Bloomberg

Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators have significantly improved in 2024. Inflation has come down dramatically, from 29.7% in December 2023 to 4.1% in December 2024, resulting in aggressive monetary easing of 900 bps by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The current account deficit has turned into a surplus of $729 million in November 2024 and the currency has remained stable.  In spite of the run-up, the KSE-100 2025 forward PE ratio of 5.9x is still substantially below the 10-year average P/E of 8.2x. 

Pakistan Shares Index PE Ratio. Source: Arif Habib

Pakistan's exports grew to $16.56 billion, an increase of 10.52% in July-Dec period in 2024 over the same period in 2023, while  imports grew 6.11% to $27.73 billion in this period. Pakistan's textile exports grew 9.7% in the first six months of the current fiscal year. The trade deficit in July-December FY25 increased 0.18% to $11.17 billion from $11.15 billion over the prior year. In December, the deficit jumped 34.80% to $2.44 billion from $1.82 billion in December 2023. The trade gap contracted to $24.08 billion in FY24 from $27.47 billion in the preceding year. The current account improvement was helped by remittances from overseas Pakistanis in  July-October 2024 which soared nearly 35% YoY to $11.8 billion as compared to $8.8 billion in July-Oct 2023.

Pakistan Textile Exports. Source: Arif Habib

In 2024, Pakistan began to make some progress to resolve the economic impact of high electricity rates and rising debt (PKR 2.1 trillion) owed to the independent power producers (IPPs). While the government terminated or renegotiated power purchase contracts (PPAs) with some IPPs, the consumers took matters into their own hands and started an unprecedented solar energy revolution. 

As a result of the latest round, PPAs with five IPPs were terminated as a first step. Two of the five IPPs took haircut deals, accepting a discount of up to PKR 20 billion. 18 other IPPs face possible conversion to take-and-pay contracts, whereby the state-owned off-taker will only be liable to pay for energy consumed by the grid, eliminating capacity charges, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. 

Pakistan Solar Projects Seen From Satellites. Source: Atlas Via Blo...

High power prices are fueling a massive solar buildout across Pakistan, according to a Yale360 report. Solar imports from China so far this year have already outstripped imports across all of last year, Bloomberg reports. Panels purchased in 2024 amount to 17 gigawatts of capacity, enough to raise Pakistan's total power capacity by a third. A satellite data analysis done in April by Norwegian firm Atlas revealed around 400 solar plants across the country, clustered mostly in industrial hubs. But many more installations went undetected, the geospatial analysis firm said. Most panels have been deployed almost equally across homes, factories, and farms, solar distributors say. 

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[Riaz Haq]

China, Pakistan pledge to boost cooperation on infrastructure, mining projects | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-pakistan-pledge-bo...

HONG KONG, Feb 6 (Reuters) - China and Pakistan will upgrade and reconstruct Pakistan's railway network and further develop its Gwadar port, while Chinese companies can invest in the South Asian nation's offshore oil and gas developments, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Thursday.
The comments came as Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari visits China from February 4-8, where he will also attend the opening ceremony of the Asian Winter Games.
Chinese investment and financial support for Pakistan since 2013 have been a boon for the South Asian nation's struggling economy.

Pakistan and China recognised the importance of Pakistan's "Gwadar Port and agreed to fully unleash its potential as a key node for connectivity and trade," Xinhua said quoting a joint statement from the two countries.
Chinese-funded enterprises would be encouraged to "carry out mining investment cooperation in Pakistan" and cooperate in terrestrial and marine geological resources.

"Pakistan welcomes Chinese companies to participate in the development of offshore oil and gas resources in Pakistan."

Longtime Pakistan ally China has thousands of nationals working on projects grouped under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The $65-billion investment is part of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative, designed to Beijing's global reach by road, rail and sea.

[Riaz Haq]

Is Imran Khan losing momentum?

https://www.dw.com/en/taking-stock-of-pakistans-government-a-year-a...

Economic indicators improving
For years, Pakistan has been dealing with an economic crisis marked by high inflation, a depreciating currency and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts.

However, there is some room for optimism this week after the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported year-on-year inflation came in at 2.4% ­— the lowest in nine years. This marks a significant decline from the 28.3% recorded in January 2024.

"One year after the February 2024 election, Pakistan's economy seems to have stabilized and this has certainly boosted the confidence of the current 'hybrid regime,'" said Rumi.

"Politicians in power have made arrangements to continue the current regime and have removed all the threats, in particular, the independent judges who may have questioned the act of the current hybrid order," he added.

Currently, Pakistan is benefiting from a $7-billion (€6.7-billion) support package from the IMF, which was granted in September, as it works toward economic recovery.

In January, Pakistan agreed to an unprecedented 10-year plan with the World Bank which will see $20 billion (€19.4 billion) worth of loans for the country's cash-strapped economy.

Last week, Pakistan's central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 12%, reflecting the easing of inflation and the anticipated growth following a total of 1,000 basis points in rate cuts over the past six months.

The State Bank of Pakistan has significantly lowered rates from a peak of 22% in June, marking one of the most aggressive actions among central banks in emerging markets, surpassing the 625 basis points cut implemented in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In December, Pakistan's consumer inflation rate was recorded at 4.1%, the lowest in over six years, aided by favorable base effects. This figure was below the government's expectations and a notable decrease from the multi-decade high of approximately 40% observed in May 2023.

'Path toward will not be easy'
Analyst Rumi said a stable path forward for Pakistan's democracy would require a "broad base consensus on the next election and how it should be held under a neutral election commission."

"Perhaps this quagmire can best be addressed through an early election, and history tells us that handling the current level of political instability would require an understanding of a free and fair election within the next two years," he said.

On healing political wounds, Kugelman said the "only way forward is dialogue."

"Talks [between government officials and Khan's aides] collapsed in recent days, but at least there was an effort to sit together. This offers something to build on for the future. Even with all the anger and ill will, the two sides have been willing to engage," he added.

Afzal agrees that Pakistan's opposing political parties need to bury the hatchet.

"The current level of political fighting will continue until there is some sort of reconciliation and political space allowed to the opposition — and that would be the right path forward for Pakistan and for its democracy — but the path toward will not be easy."
-----------------

Despite continued political protests carried out by PTI supporters, analysts contend that this has not been enough to move the needle, as the PML-N enjoys significant support from Pakistan's powerful military.

"A year after a marred election, the civilian coalition government, in partnership with the military, has consolidated control over the country," Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told DW.

"Of course, it has come at quite a bit of cost — to the country's democracy, to the judiciary's independence, to people's freedom of speech and right to information — and its benefits are in question," she added.

Khan was removed from premiership in 2022 through a no-confidence vote in Pakistan's parliament.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan Reforms Report 2025 Launched

https://www.kron4.com/business/press-releases/ein-presswire/7843141...

Governance & Public Sector Reforms
- 150,000 federal workforce positions eliminated to reduce expenditures.
- 33% female representation mandated on government boards.
Economic & Financial Reforms
- Inflation reduced from 38% in May 2023 to 4.1% by December 2024.
- Foreign exchange reserves increased from $4.4 billion to $11.73 billion by the end of 2024.
- Helped maintain currency stability and prevent extreme fluctuations.
- GDP growth improved from 0.29% to 2.38% in the past year, projected to reach 3.5% in FY25.
- Trade deficit reduced from $27.47 billion to $17.54 billion in 12 months.
- Defined contribution pension reform expected to save Rs. 1.7 trillion over 10 years.
- Rs. 83 billion expected reduction in pension allocations for FY 2025–2026.
- Restored investor confidence; encouraging local and foreign investment.
- Averted a severe economic crisis through strategic intervention, through SIFC.
- Expanded crackdown on illicit trade through targeted illegal activities under the Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement (ATTA).
- Addressed the influx of untaxed, smuggled goods into Pakistan.
Investment & Industrial Reforms
- 34 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) signed with Saudi Arabia, worth $2.8 billion.
- SEZ expansion and industrial policy reforms expected to boost exports and attract FDI.
- Business Facilitation Centers (BFCs) to ease regulatory burdens.
Security & Immigration Reforms
- Visa Prior to Arrival (VPA) facility granted to 120 countries; over 120,000 visas approved in 6 months.
- All madrassas must register within six months (new ones within a year).
- Madrassas are required to submit financial audits annually to ensure transparency.
- Encourages the inclusion of modern education subjects alongside religious studies in madrassas.
- Madrassas can register under either the Societies Act or the Ministry of Education.
- Creation of the National Forensics and Cybercrime Agency (NFCA) to tackle cyber threats.
- 1,600 Special Protection Unit (SPU) personnel deployed to safeguard non-CPEC projects.
- 100 surveillance cameras installed under the Islamabad Safe City Project.
- 973 officers recruited for the new Anti-Riot Force.
Digital Transformation & Cybersecurity
- National Forensics and Cybercrime Agency (NFCA) established.
- The Digital Case Flow Management System implemented in 178 federal courts, tracking 130,000 cases via SMS.
- AI-driven National Registration & Biometric Policy Framework launched.
- Introduced new policies to protect users from data breaches and cyber threats.
- Updates outdated cyber laws to align with global best practices.
- Strengthens laws against false, misleading, and harmful digital content.
- Establishment of Social Media Protection and Regulatory Authority for digital oversight.
- Adjustments made to penalties for fake news while

[Riaz Haq]

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Remittances increased by 25% YoY to $ 3.0bn during Jan’25

Remittances by overseas Pakistani's increased by 25% YoY to USD 3.0bn during Jan'25 compared to USD 2.4bn during Jan’24. On MoM basis, remittances decreased by 3%.

In 7MFY25, remittances increased by 32%YoY to USD 20.8bn.

https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1888969491092062600

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan, China sign $300mn MoUs in energy, coal, and cement sectors
Agreements include renewable energy projects, cement production, and coal gasification

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/02/06/president-zardari-wi...

The agreements, signed between Pakistani stakeholders and Chinese investors, aim to enhance the country’s industrial growth and energy sustainability.

The Energy Department of the Government of Sindh and Ming Yang Renewable Energy (International) Company Ltd. signed an MoU to advance renewable energy projects in the province.

Pakistan’s Ambassador to China, Khalil Hashmi, signed on behalf of the Ministry of Energy, while Ming Yang Renewable Energy Chairman Li Jianzhang represented the Chinese side.

The partnership will focus on wind and solar hybrid power generation projects, including a 75 MW facility in the Kotri/Nooriabad Industrial Area and a 350 MW plant in Jhimpir, Thatta.

In the cement sector, Thatta Cement Company Limited and Zhonggang Construction Group signed an MoU outlining plans for a new 5,000 t/d cement production line.

Additionally, the Sindh Government reached an agreement with MESKAY FEMTEE CG&M Pvt. Ltd. for a coal gasification and urea production plant in Pakistan, Gwadar Pro reported on Thursday.

The signing ceremony was attended by key officials, including Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah, Senator Saleem Mandviwalla, Chief Whip of the Senate, Senior Minister of Sindh Sharjeel Inam Memon, Minister for Energy and Planning Syed Nasir Hussain Shah, Pakistan’s Ambassador to China Khalil Hashmi, along with senior government representatives, business leaders, and industry stakeholders.

[Riaz Haq]

Global funds turn to Pakistan as 84% stock rally set to extend


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1282136-global-funds-turn-to-pakis...

Some of the world’s top money managers are once again favoring Pakistan’s stocks after the market returns last year were among the best globally, reports Bloomberg.

From BlackRock Inc to Eaton Vance Corp, asset managers are warming up to the South Asian nation’s $50 billion market that handed investors 84 per cent returns in 2024. Attractive valuations and a stabilising economy have improved the outlook for local shares, with Intermarket Securities Ltd. predicting a gain of about 40 per cent for the main KSE-100 index this year.

“You don’t have to stretch your imagination to make an investment case for Pakistan,” said Steven Quattry, New York-based portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. The rally has been supported by strong earnings growth, he said.

Pakistan’s stocks surged last year, helped by improving economic outlook and crucial loan deals with the International Monetary Fund. More recently, the nation’s current account balance has improved, and easing inflation spurred the central bank to cut rates.

The optimism is reflected in foreign fund allocations. The nation’s stocks had a 5.0 per cent weight in BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust as of December, marking a return for the money manager for the first time since March 2022. Eaton Vance also reentered the market in the June quarter following a brief exit.

Legal & General Investment Management Ltd and Evli Fund Management Co have also raised holdings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The level of foreign investor interest at present is comparable to the peak years of 2014-2018, according to Mohammed Sohail, chief executive officer of Topline Securities Ltd.

Political Instability

Still, risks remain. The political environment is fragile, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan wielding power to mobilise nationwide protests from behind bars -- unrest that threatens to derail economic activity.

Economic challenges also persist. The nation fell 6.0 per cent short of its six-month tax collection target -- a key condition for its $7 billion IMF loan -- raising concerns about its ability to win the next tranche of the funding.

A downgrade in the nation’s status to frontier market status by FTSE Russell that took effect in September hurt sentiment, prompting foreigners to turn net sellers in the last three months of 2024.

Despite these headwinds, investors are bullish given the improving external finances. Foreign exchange reserves now cover more than two months of imports, inching closer to the IMF-prescribed levels. That’s an improvement from less than a month’s coverage before the IMF bailout in 2023.

“If Pakistan can manage its current account deficit, which they should be able to, we can see a multi-year rally in the market,” said Ruchir Desai, a fund manager at Asia Frontier Capital Ltd in Hong Kong.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s IT exports surpass $2 billion in first 7 months of FY25 - Profit by Pakistan Today

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/02/18/pakistans-it-exports...

IT sector sees a 27% YoY growth, with January exports hitting $313 million, as new policies fuel export confidence

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s IT exports have reached US$ 2.18 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2024-25, marking a 27% increase year-over-year (YoY) compared to the same period in the previous year, as reported by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

According to Topline Securities, this achievement marks the 16th consecutive month of YoY growth for the IT export sector, beginning from October 2023.

In January 2025, IT exports totaled US$ 313 million, reflecting an 18% increase YoY, although a 10% drop compared to December 2024. However, January’s export figures surpassed the 12-month average of US$ 303 million.

Export proceeds per day in January were recorded at US$ 13.6 million, down from US$ 16.6 million in December 2024.

The year-over-year growth in IT exports can be attributed to several key factors:
– Expansion of IT companies’ client bases, especially within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region,
– Relaxation of the permissible retention limit by the State Bank of Pakistan, which increased from 35% to 50% in Exporters’ Specialized Foreign Currency Accounts,
– The introduction of equity investment abroad through these accounts,
– Stability in the Pakistani Rupee (PKR), encouraging IT exporters to bring back a higher portion of profits to Pakistan.

Pakistani IT companies have remained proactive in engaging with global clients. Recently, some of the leading companies participated in the Oslo Innovation Week and the Pak-US Tech Investment Conference.

A recent survey by the Pakistan Software Houses Association (P@SHA) found that 62% of IT companies are maintaining specialized foreign currency accounts.

A major shift this fiscal year is the SBP’s introduction of a new category for Equity Investment Abroad (EIA), specifically for export-oriented IT companies. Under this new policy, IT exporters can now invest up to 50% of their export proceeds from specialized foreign currency accounts in foreign entities. This development is expected to further bolster the confidence of IT exporters and encourage the repatriation of proceeds to Pakistan.

Net IT exports (exports minus imports) for January 2025 stood at US$ 281 million, showing a 17% increase YoY and 27% growth compared to the previous month. These numbers are also higher than the 12-month average of US$ 261 million.

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan’s food exports rise to $4.62 billion in seven months - Profit by Pakistan Today

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/02/19/pakistans-food-expor...


Pakistan’s food exports increased by 8.17 percent to $4.62 billion during the first seven months of the fiscal year 2024-25, up from $4.26 billion in the same period last year, primarily driven by a rise in rice shipments, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).


This marks the 18th consecutive month of export growth, even as domestic food inflation remains at historically high levels, leading to increased prices for consumers across the country.

Rice exports played a key role in the overall increase, with shipments reaching $2.19 billion during July-January 2025, a 3.73 percent rise from $2.12 billion in the corresponding period last year.

The export volume of basmati rice grew by 22.04 percent to 487,221 tonnes, with its export value rising by 11.98 percent to $511.59 million. Non-basmati rice exports also increased by 1.46 percent in value to $1.68 billion, with export volume up 7.72 percent to 3.15 million tonnes.

New export markets, including Bangladesh, have contributed to the expansion of Pakistan’s rice sector, which remains a key driver of exports to the European Union and the United Kingdom. However, the continued surge in rice exports has impacted domestic availability, pushing basmati rice prices up to Rs400 per kg from Rs150 two years ago.

Sugar exports saw a dramatic increase, rising by 2,188 percent to 757,597 tonnes compared to just 33,101 tonnes in the same period last year. Afghanistan has been the primary destination for these shipments, contributing to the domestic price hike in sugar.

Meat exports also registered a modest increase of 2.6 percent during the first seven months of the fiscal year. The expansion of meat exports has been driven by new market openings, the participation of additional exporters, and the approval of more slaughterhouses. However, domestic meat prices have surged in recent years, with buffalo meat prices doubling from Rs700 per kg to Rs1,400, while chicken prices have hit record highs.

Conversely, exports of vegetables declined by 18.14 percent during July-January 2025, mainly due to a drop in onion, potato, and tomato shipments. Fruit exports also recorded a slight decline of 0.24 percent, while fish and seafood exports showed minimal growth of 1.25 percent.