Solar Power Boom in Pakistan

[Riaz Haq]

Falling solar panel prices and soaring rates for grid electricity are driving a renewable power boom in Pakistan. A second factor spurring the growth in clean energy installations is the requirement of major western apparel brands for garments and textile manufacturers to switch to clean energy. As a result, the solar panel imports in the country jumped from 2,800 MW in 2022 to 5,000 MW in 2023, in spite of stringent import controls imposed by the government. Solar imports are on track to reach 12,000 MW in 2024, according to solar installers. The total current installed generation capacity in Pakistan is around 40,000 MW. Grid electricity demand in Pakistan plunged in 2023 by nearly a sixth and a decline in 2024 would mark the first time in 16 years that annual electricity use has fallen consecutively, data from energy think tank Ember showed, according to Reuters.

Pakistan Solar Panel Imports. Source: PV Magazine

Omar Malik, the CEO of Shams Power, a major solar system contractor in Pakistan, was recently quoted by PV Magazine as saying: “In 2022, 2.8 GW of solar panels were imported into Pakistan. In 2023, about 5 GW, despite the import controls, and this year the prediction is for up to 12 GW”. 

Aamir Hussain, chairman Pakistan Alternative Energy Association, told Arab News that solar panels of around 1,800 MW were purchased and installed last year, which was expected to jump to 3,000 MW this year due to the lower prices of the panels and increased customer demand.

 “Pakistan will be spending over $3.5 billion [this year] on solar panel imports only as this doesn’t include import of batteries, inverters and other auxiliary items,” Hussain said. “Pakistan needs to follow consistent policies regarding renewable energy to meet its national and international obligations for the greenhouse gas emissions.”

Pakistan's Monthly Solar Imports in millions of US$. Source: Bloomberg

Japanese publication Nikkei Asia recently reported seeing residential building rooftops covered with solar panels in Islamabad. It also reported proliferation of rooftop solar in small towns and villages across the country. In particular, the Nikkei story mentioned the remote village of Kardigap with a population of 5,000, in Balochistan province, where solar panels are becoming more common on the rooftops of houses. 

Responding to western apparel brands' demand for sustainability, a number of large Pakistani textile manufacturers are switching to clean energy, particularly solar. Tayyab Group of Industries (TGOIs), a major textile manufacturer, has recently signed an MOU to install a 20 MW solar system for its needs. Gul Ahmed Textile Mills Limited announced recently that it will install a 17.1 MW roof-top solar power plant to meet its energy needs.

While rapid uptake of solar is good news for the planet, it does create a major fiscal issue for the Pakistani government struggling to pay for power produced by the independent power producers (IPPs). The IPPs, many of them Chinese, secured a guaranteed return on investment indexed to the U.S. dollar, plus payment for fixed capacity charges -- covering their debt servicing and other fixed costs -- regardless of whether the power plants are operational, according to Nikkei Asia. As the demand for the grid power from the IPPs declines with rising solar, the taxpayers are still on the hook for the unused installed capacity charges running into billions of dollars. Higher power tariffs and taxes will only make the situation worse. 

Capping Net Metering power and reducing payments for supplying excess power to the grid are not going to solve the problem either. It will only encourage more consumers to switch to rooftop solar and use less electricity from the grid. Self consumption of the rooftop solar power saves significant energy costs for the consumer. 

It seems the only way forward for the Pakistan government is to renegotiate the terms with the IPPs to significantly reduce grid power costs to address the growing cost gap between rooftop solar and the grid power. 

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[Riaz Haq]

K-Electric to Double Pakistan's Solar Energy Capacity in Next 2 Years

https://propakistani.pk/2024/08/19/k-electric-to-double-pakistans-s...

K-Electric Limited plans to add 640 megawatts of clean energy to its portfolio within the next two years which would double Pakistan’s solar energy capacity, reported Bloomberg.

Chief Strategy Officer Shahab Qader Khan said the bidding process for this begins on August 19 (today) and will close next month. The projects will include 200 megawatts of hybrid solar wind generation.

Solar energy makes up just 1 percent of the national energy mix, and K-Electric wants to alleviate some of the prevalent burden of electricity bills on residential consumers by reducing the country’s dependence on expensive fuel imports.

Looking ahead, K-Electric plans to add 1,200 megawatts of renewable energy over the next five years, while scaling back on costly energy sources like liquefied natural gas and fuel oil.

Pakistan currently faces high electricity costs due to heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports. It is pertinent to mention that monthly power bills have surged by 155 percent since 2021 and now exceed rent expenses for many households across the country.

[Riaz Haq]

Solar projects receive lowest-ever tariff bid

Bid of Rs11.2 per unit marks pivotal shift in renewable energy sector

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2489390/solar-projects-receive-lowest-...

KARACHI:
In a landmark development, K-Electric's (KE) 150-megawatt solar energy projects in Balochistan have achieved the country's lowest-ever tariff bid, setting a new industry benchmark and marking a pivotal shift in the renewable energy sector.

A bid of Rs11.2 per unit, revealed during a ceremony, underscores the trust in private sector-led initiatives, particularly in the context of Pakistan's ongoing economic challenges. Earlier, Bloomberg News highlighted KE's endeavours to nearly double Pakistan's solar capacity by adding 640MW of clean energy to its portfolio in the next two years.

It was revealed that the bidding process for those projects began in August and would conclude in September 2024. The portfolio, which includes 200MW of hybrid solar-wind generation, is also a critical component of KE's strategy to reduce reliance on expensive fossil fuels and lower the country's overall import bill.

The 640MW of projects, currently in the pipeline, have been divided into three tranches: 150MW solar projects in Balochistan, a 270MW project in Sindh and a 220MW site-neutral project that will be the first hybrid solar and wind energy venture. These projects are expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy.

Pakistan has long been plagued by high electricity prices, driven by its dependence on costly fossil fuel imports. With monthly electricity bills having risen 155% since 2021, often surpassing rent costs for many families, the shift towards more affordable and sustainable energy sources is both urgent and necessary.

Currently, solar energy accounts for just 1% of the energy mix, with a total capacity of 630MW. Doubling this capacity could provide much-needed economic relief to consumers and help stabilise the energy sector.

The recent financial bid opening event in Karachi was attended by representatives from both international and local entities, including JCM Power Group and Hecate Global Renewables from North America, and Pakistani companies such as Atlas Power, Hub Power Holding Co and Sapphire Electric Co.

[Riaz Haq]

Future of Net-Metered Solar Power in Pakistan

https://ieefa.org/resources/future-net-metered-solar-power-pakistan

Pakistan's current Distributed Generation and Net Metering Regulations offer incentives such as high buyback rates, fixed long-term generation licenses, and generous allowances for installed capacity. These have resulted in ideal payback periods, leading to a surge in net-metered rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity across the country.

The current policy offers 2-4 year payback periods for 5-25 kilowatt (kW) net-metered solar PV systems. Power utilities are concerned that higher penetration of distributed solar could place the distribution infrastructure at risk of failure and increase capacity payments on non-net-metered consumers.

The government is considering reducing buyback rates and a shift to net billing from net metering, which could increase payback periods for consumers with a higher self-consumption ratio but may incentivize oversized systems. A net billing scheme would therefore need to limit system size. Despite all policy shifts, the payback periods remain under 5 years

For the government, while maintaining or improving buyback rates can encourage more renewable energy adoption, this must be combined with grid optimization and digitization. For consumers, choosing the right system size for their consumption profile can significantly impact their return on investment.

[Riaz Haq]

Rationalizing Incentives for Solar Photovoltaic (PV) in Pakistan

https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/IEEFA%20Fact%20Sheet_...

The recent surge in rooftop solarization in Pakistan has raised concerns among power distribution companies about
system reliability and increased capacity payments.
The government is considering several changes to current energy policies, including reducing buyback rates,
limiting system sizes, and transitioning from net metering to net billing.
However, even with the proposed changes, the payback period for 5-25 kilowatt (kW) distributed solar PV systems
remains below the 5-year threshold


A mere 50 megawatts (MW) of netmetered solar capacity was added
between 2016 and 2019. However,
consistently high electricity tariffs
and a substantial decline in solar
panel prices have led to a recent
surge in solar PV additions.
Pakistan’s abundant
solar potential offers
specific yields of 3.8
kilowatt-hours per
kilowatt peak (kWh/
kWp) to 6kWh/kWp.
Since 2022, net-metered solar PV
installations have nearly doubled, with
764MW installed in 2023.
In June 2024, Pakistan’s
on-grid net-metered solar PV
capacity was approximately
2200MW.

The recent surge in rooftop solarization in Pakistan has raised concerns among power distribution companies about
system reliability and increased capacity payments.
The government is considering several changes to current energy policies, including reducing buyback rates,
limiting system sizes, and transitioning from net metering to net billing.
However, even with the proposed changes, the payback period for 5-25 kilowatt (kW) distributed solar PV systems
remains below the 5-year threshold



Under the current mechanism, which offers the prevailing National Average Power Purchase Price (NAPPP) of PKR 27 per
kilowatt hour (kWh) as the buyback rate, the relatively higher per kW cost of smaller 5kW and 7.5kW systems results in
extended payback periods ranging between 2.4-4 years. As the system size increases, the payback period decreases, with
a 25kW system recording the shortest payback period of 1.74 years.
• Reducing the buyback rate to the National Average Energy Purchase Price (NAEPP) of PKR 9.69/kWh could lead to a
10%–56% increase in the payback period, depending on the level of consumption and system size. Consumers with smaller
installations and lower consumption experience longer payback periods.
• Reducing the buyback rate to PKR 15/kWh would only result in a 6% increase in the payback period for consumers with
100% self-consumption, while for lower-consumption profiles it may increase by 25%.
• Shifting to a net billing mechanism would increase the payback period for consumers with a higher self-consumption ratio
but could incentivize the installation of oversized systems.

[Riaz Haq]

A solar power policy crisis for Pakistan - Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/a-solar-power-policy-crisis-for-pakis...

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As of August 2024, Pakistan's net metering regulations allow excess energy from solar systems to be sold back to the grid at the National Average Power Purchase Price (NAPPP). This price reflects the average cost per unit of power that the DISCOs purchase.
In June 2024, some speculated that the government might introduce changes to the solar panel policy, including a shift from net metering to a gross metering system. However, the Federal Minister for the power division, Ahmed Khan Lagari, has denied these changes and assured the public that the existing net metering system will remain in place.
A bidirectional meter, which measures both the electricity generated and consumed, can help consumers reduce their reliance on expensive grid electricity. This system can also make solar investments financially viable, promote energy independence, and reduce the strain on the national grid.

----------------

Optimizing solar incentives and grid infrastructure in Pakistan can benefit power distribution companies and energy consumers | IEEFA

https://ieefa.org/articles/optimizing-solar-incentives-and-grid-inf...

The regulations created the framework for the successful adoption of distributed renewable energy in the country, with approximately 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of net-metered rooftop solar PV capacity connected to the grid by June 2024.

[Riaz Haq]

Budget 2024-25: Production of solar panels, inverters and batteries becomes cheaper - Must Read - Aaj English TV

https://english.aaj.tv/news/330365159/budget-2024-25-production-of-...

According to the finance bill, the government has eliminated all taxes on machinery and equipment used in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, most of these were subjected to taxes ranging from 5% to 20%.

----------------------
Pakistan’s energy system strained by surge in solarization, battery tech

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1215486-pakistan-s-energy-system-s...

ISLAMABAD: The rapid solarization and advancements in battery technology are increasingly challenging Pakistan’s existing energy system.

The influx of over 7,000 megawatts of imported capacity, coupled with some industrialists and bulk consumers installing in-house plants of up to 1.5 megawatts, threatens to disrupt long-term agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

This situation is exacerbated by mounting frustration among power consumers, who are being burdened with substantial multi-billion-rupee capacity charges on their monthly bills.

The provincial governments, especially Punjab and Sindh’s distribution of solar panels to the public, will further pressurise the system, as they will now be drawing less from the grid and so the burden of capacity charges will increase and ultimately the tariff, which will further take away consumers from the grid power.

“Various bulk consumers have done aggressive solarization, even they installed capacity of up to 1.5 megawatts and have kept the grid at backup,” Chairman Nepra Waseem Mukhtar said while presiding over a public hearing on Wednesday adding, “It’s [solarization] a threat.”

The Nepra chairman said that this 7,000 MW imported solar capacity is not for only rooftops, bulk consumers are also installing their big capacities. He also tasked the CPPA with conducting a study on solar energy usage, mapping and submitting a report to Nepra.

Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) while pleading the case on behalf of Discos reported that electricity consumption in June 2024 was 10 percent lower than the reference period consumption, while two percent less than last year.

Waseem Mukhtar said that the government has launched a study to determine if Pakistan requires additional power generation capacity. He emphasized the need for a logical approach to adding more electricity to the national grid. The study is also evaluating that Commercial Operating Dates (CoDs) for some plants may be postponed, he said, mentioning that the study will determine which plants can be retired early.

[Riaz Haq]

Electricity Tariff for Pakistan Residential Consumers- July 2024

https://arynews.tv/electricity-tariff-for-pakistan-residential-cons...

ISLAMABAD: The federal cabinet approved significant increase in the electricity tariff for residential consumers using 100 to 500 units per month, ARY news reported.

According to the details, the new basic tariff is fixed at Rs 48.84 per unit, which will increase to Rs 57.63 per unit after sales tax. With adjustments and other taxes, the maximum electricity tariff will exceed Rs 65 per unit.

As per the decision taken by the federal cabinet, the monthly tariff for consumers using 1 to 100 units is proposed to Rs 23.59, while those using 101 to 200 units will have to pay Rs 30.07 per unit.

Similarly, the tariff for those consumers using 201 to 300 units will increase to Rs 34.26, and those using 301 to 400 units will have to pay Rs 39.15 per unit.

The consumers using 401 to 500 units will be charged the most as they will have to pay Rs 41.36 per unit

Pakistan’s power sector caused a Rs403 billion loss in FY2022-23, revealed the National Electronic Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) report earlier.

The progress report of the power distribution companies including K-Electric was released by the NEPRA, indicating nine distribution companies including K-Electric failed to achieve 100pc recovery.

The line losses and low recoveries caused a loss of Rs403 bln to the national kitty, the report said. The report highlighted that the companies did not buy the electricity as per the assigned quota.

The companies carrying out loadshedding ‘deliberately’ as they are not buying electricity as per their quotas, the report said.

[Riaz Haq]

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-...


https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-....

Pakistan Solar Energy Market Analysis

The Pakistan Solar Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 1.41 gigawatt in 2024 to 9.53 gigawatt by 2029, at a CAGR of 46.55% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
Over the medium term, increasing adoption of solar PV systems, the declining price of solar panels and installation costs, and rising environmental concerns about the use of fossil fuels are the factors driving the market's growth.
On the other hand, the market is expected to be hampered by issues like transmission and distribution losses, a need for a solidified renewable energy policy, and unpredictability in the continuity of power supply.
However, Pakistan has abundant solar irradiance and receives solar energy almost yearly. This factor presents a phenomenal opportunity to exploit solar energy from the most irradiated sites in the country, combined with foreign investments. Additionally, the off-grid supply through micro- and mini-grids to electrify rural communities of the country and the integration of renewable energy sources in generation, transmission, and distribution systems are some factors expected to create opportunities for the market in the future.





Pakistan Solar Energy Market Trends


The Utility Sector is Expected to Dominate the Market



Solar energy converts energy from sunlight into electricity directly using photovoltaics (PV) or indirectly using concentrated solar power.
Due to the falling cost of solar modules and the number of upcoming projects, the utility sector will likely be the most significant part of the Pakistani solar energy market over the next few years.
The Pakistani government has established lofty objectives, such as 30% of the nation's power coming from renewable sources by 2030. Through the Alternative Energy Development Board, the government is attempting to construct solar power facilities nationwide to meet these objectives.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy.
In December 2023, Orient Energy Systems and JA Solar announced they completed Pakistan's first n-type utility-scale photovoltaic power plant project. The project adopts JA Solar's n-type high-efficiency modules, which have a capacity of 26 megawatts. It is installed on the premises of Lucky Cement plant, Pakistan's largest cement manufacturer.
In March 2024, Hanersun Technologies agreed with My Energy, a local company, to construct a 500MW solar system in the country. The project is expected to have an investment of around USD 700 million.
Hence, with government support, these projects are expected to make the utility sector the dominant force in Pakistan's solar energy industry in the coming years. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-...

[Riaz Haq]

In Pakistan, the residential sector is the largest consumer of electricity, followed by the industrial sector:
Residential: The largest consumer of electricity, accounting for 47% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022. The average household consumes 2,469 kWh per year.
Industrial: Consumed 28% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Commercial: Consumed 7% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Agricultural: Consumed 9% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Other sectors: Consumed 8% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Pakistan's electricity is mainly generated by fossil fuel-based thermal power plants, which account for 62% of the total electricity generation. Hydroelectric power plants account for 26% of the total annual electricity.

https://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_24/14_energy.pdf

https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/11/11/566#:~:text=Pakistan%20is%20am...(Figure%201).

[Riaz Haq]

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Power Generation drops 17.4% YoY in Aug'24

(Grid) Power generation declined by 17.4% YoY to arrive at 13,179 GWh (17,714 MW) during Aug'24, compared to 15,959 GWh (21,450MW) during SPLY. Moreover, on a MoM basis, power generation witnessed a dip of 11.4%. For 2MFY25, power generation fell by 8.9% YoY to 28,059 GWh (18,857 MW) compared to 30,798 GWh (20,697 MW) in the SPLY.

During Aug’24, the actual power generation was 13.1% lower than the reference generation. This decline in generation is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 2QFY25 QTA.

https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1836714300620337340

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Chinese solar panel boom threatens Pakistan’s debt-ridden grid

https://www.ft.com/content/69e4cb33-3615-4424-996d-5aee9d1afe19

Businesses in Pakistan are racing to cover their factory rooftops with ultra-cheap Chinese solar panels, after a surge in electricity prices that has made the state-owned power supply among the most expensive in South Asia. “Every bit of space I have, even if it’s a few feet, I want it covered in solar panels,” said Khawaja Masood Akhtar, chief executive of Forward Sports, whose factory near the Indian border is one of the world’s largest makers of footballs and a rare example of a successful export business. His company had already doubled the level of solar in its energy mix to 50 per cent over the past two years, in response to pressure to go green from Adidas, which contracts Forward to churn out millions of balls each year.



Akhtar is now ploughing a chunk of last year’s profits into importing another haul of panels from China to lift the share of solar supply to his operations to 80 per cent by next April, to blunt the impact of soaring tariffs for state-provided power. “It’s the only way we can beat our competitors” in China and India, he said. “Allah has given us this gift to get out of this mess.” China is also involved on the other side of the “mess”. In order to put an end to widespread electricity shortages a decade ago, the Pakistani government drew in billions of dollars from Chinese and other lenders to its power sector with promises of sovereign-backed, dollar-indexed returns and commitments to pay for even unused electricity. Financing mostly flowed to the coal-fired plants, and power tariffs in Pakistan have more than doubled over the past three years alone, as the cash-strapped government scaled back subsidies and passed the capacity payments made to power producers on to consumers. In response, moneyed Pakistanis have capitalised on the country’s punishingly harsh sunlight by importing some $1.4bn worth of Chinese solar panels in the first half of this year, making it the third-largest national destination in the world, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF. Shimmering blue panels now sit atop a vast array of factories, high-end households, hospitals and mosques.




Irteza Ubaid, chief operating officer of Shams Power, a Lahore-based importer, said that multinational companies in Pakistan, including Coca-Cola, Mondelez and Hyundai, are gobbling up the panels he imports from China, as they chase savings of up to 70 per cent on their electricity bills. The federal government sees the switch to solar as being in the country’s environmental interests, as climate change has brought more extreme weather, including deadly heatwaves and floods, which caused the deaths of more than 1,500 in 2022.




But the mass adoption of solar panels also risked making the power provided by the Pakistani grid “unaffordable”, Awais Leghari, the energy minister, told the Financial Times. “Demand is shrinking off the grid. That’s a big concern for us.” Earlier this year, the ministry complained that “solarisation has grown too fast”, as a result of a policy to buy some excess solar power from households and industry at above-market prices. A remaining estimated 30mn low-income consumers who cannot afford the new solar panels or lack the rooftop space now face rocketing prices for the state-owned power supply.