Karachi Defense Expo 2022: Pakistan Military's Focus on AI, Connectivity and Drone Warfare

[Riaz Haq]

Pakistan displayed its latest drones at IDEAS 2022 (International Defence Exhibition and Seminar) Defense Expo held in November in Karachi. It also presented sessions on artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and connectivity. The event attracted more than 50 countries, including large pavilions set up by Pakistan's closest friends China and Turkey.  The four-day IDEAS 2022 opened on November 15, 2022 at Karachi Expo Centre, bringing together 300 leading national and international defense manufacturers and over 300 foreign delegates from 57 countries.

Pakistan's Shahpar 2 Attack Drone

Shahpar 2 Drone:

On display at IDEAS 2022 was Shahpar-2 Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) attack drone  produced by Global Industrial and Defense Solutions (GIDS), a Pakistani state-owned defense conglomerate. It can fly at a maximum speed of around 222 kilometers per hour (kph) with maximum range of around 1,050 kilometers, and the data link range of 300 kilometers. It can contact satellites in day or night operations.   

Shahpar 2 drone can locate, surveil, track and attack targets.  Its Zumr-II (EO/IR) turret is an improved and lighter version of Zumr-I (EP) turret. It can also be equipped with SAR, COMINT/ELINT payload. For sensors and targeting systems drone has an internal hard-point where it carry 50 kg (110 lb) payload. (Zumr-I weighs 36.5 kg (80 lb) while Zumr-II weighs 49 kg (108 lb)). The drone has two external hard-points where it can carry laser guided weapons, AGMs 60 kg (130 lb) each. Shapar 2 has already been inducted into service with Pakistan’s Army, Navy, and Air Force. 

Pakistan Navy's Cruise Missiles: Babur, Harba and Zarb. Source: Quwa

Also on display were advanced Harbah anti-ship cruise missiles made by Pakistan's state-owned Global Industrial and Defence Solutions (GIDS) and electronic warfare system produced by National Radio and Telecommunication Corporation (NRTC). The locally developed Al-Khalid tanks and modern assault rifles manufactured by Pakistan Ordinance Factories (POF) were also exhibited. Visitors also got a close look at the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) JF-17 Thunder fighter jets produced jointly by China and Pakistan. 

JF-17 Block III: 

JF-Block-III is a BVR (Beyond Visual Range) multi-role fighter jet capable of firing long range air-to-air missiles like China's PL-10 and PL-15. It features active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar system, making it Pakistan Air Force’s first AESA-equipped fighter aircraft. Combination of AESA radar and 120-mile range PL-15 missiles make the JF-17 Block 3 an extremely lethal fighter for beyond visual range combat, considerably more capable than any fighter in Pakistani service including the F-16.  It also has a new electronic warfare system, upgraded avionics including a three-axis fly-by-wire digital flight control system, and a helmet-mounted display and sight (HDMS) system. With its new integrated sensor package, the aircraft will have the capability for quick information sharing and network-enabled operations that facilitate earlier detection and interception of enemy aircraft. 

Pakistan JF-17 Block 3 Fighter Jet

Chinese and Turkish Pavilions:

Pakistan’s longtime allies China and Turkey had the largest foreign presence at IDEAS 2022. Chinese state-run defense conglomerate China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO) displayed missiles and weapon systems including the Red Arrow 9A anti-tank guided missile.  

Turkey displayed a scale model of its fifth-generation fighter, codenamed the TF-X, at Pakistan’s IDEAS expo 2022. Over two dozen Turkish defense manufacturers participated in Pakistan’s IDEAS defense expo this year. 

Top Turkish defense manufacturers, including Roketsan, state-run STM and ASFAT, showcased their products ranging from modern armed drones to tactical mini-UAV systems. Turkish Aerospace exhibited the models of the T129 ATAK helicopter, Gokbey multirole helicopter, Gokturk-2 observation satellite, as well as Anka unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and Aksungur medium-altitude long-range endurance (MALE) UAV.

AI and Connectivity:   

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) launched a Cognitive Electronic Warfare (CEW) program in 2020 at its Center for Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC). Modern connected weapon systems generate vast amounts of data requiring artificial intelligence and machine learning software for speedy analysis and rapid decision-making on the battlefield.  

A seminar titled ‘Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Defence Market: A Paradigm Shift in Military Strategy and National Security’ was organized as part of IDEAS-22. Also discussed was ‘One Network’, an advanced communication project, under which 3,000 kilometers of underground fibre optic cable is being laid along the motorways in Pakistan.  

An example of connectivity and integration was demonstrated in Operation Swift Retort against India in February 2019. The success of this operation was the result of combat-proven PAF fighters which are fully integrated with the air defense system (e.g. AWACS), and are mutually data-linked, alongside all AEW (Airborne Early Warning) and ground sensors. 

Rethink After Ukraine War:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries around the world. This is particularly true of  countries such as India that rely mainly on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying:  “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan-China Defense Industry Collaboration Irks West

Pakistan's Cyber Attack and Defense Capability

Is India a Paper Elephant?

Pakistan's Aircraft Exports

Pakistan Navy Modernization

West's Technological Edge in Geopolitical Competition

Pakistan Defense Industry

Silicon Valley Book Launch of "Eating Grass"

Ukraine's Lesson For Pakistan: Never Give Up Nukes!

Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollars

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

VPOS Youtube Channel

[Riaz Haq]

ONE Network, Cybernet complete first phase of cross-country long-haul fiber network

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40211289

A new ultra-low latency long-haul fiber network is being deployed jointly by One Network, the largest ICT and Intelligent Traffic and Electronic Tolling System operator in Pakistan, and Cybernet, a leading fiber broadband provider. The network will span the entire length of the country and provide much-needed capacity and redundancy to the communications, internet, and media infrastructure in numerous cities, towns, and districts.

The first phase of the project, which includes 1,800 km of fiber network along motorways and road sections linking Karachi to Hyderabad (M-9 Motorway), Multan to Sukkur (M-5 Motorway), Abdul Hakeem to Lahore (M-3 Motorway), Swat Expressway (M-16), Lahore to Islamabad (M-2 Motorway) and separately from Lahore to Sialkot (M-11 Motorway), Gujranwala, Daska and Wazirabad have been deployed.

Both partners are now moving expeditiously to install and test a multi-terabit transport network and attain ready-for-service (RFS).

The second phase which includes Hyderabad to Sukkur, Multan to Pindi Bhattian (M-4 Motorway), Hazara Expressway (E-35), Hakla to D.I.Khan (M-14 Motorway), and Islamabad to Peshawar (M-1 Motorway) has commenced and is expected to go live by Q1 2023.

Based on learnings from disruptions due to infrastructure damages in recent floods, the project has implemented extra measures to withstand natural calamities. All critical components including optical networking equipment, distribution networks, and power systems are deployed in such a manner that they continue to function in a range of disaster scenarios. Furthermore, the network is being enhanced through multiple rings, and swap arrangements with other network providers to provide an unprecedented level of reliability.

Asif Siddique, CEO of One Network, said: “This national long-haul project is the backbone to enable One Network to deploy state-of-the-art platforms for electronic toll collection (ETC) and intelligent transportation systems (ITS) for our National Motorways – the economic backbone of our country. Built along the national motorways, the fiber transmission network will provide a robust information highway linking many Pakistani cities, towns, and districts. The infrastructure has been built, and will be maintained, by keeping in mind the capacity and communication needs for our nation and its citizens for the next 25 years”. The infrastructure shall also be available for all cellular mobile operators to provide quality of service to their 3G/4G subscribers along the motorway routes. “We are building safe and reliable long-haul fiber infrastructure with an aim to contribute to improving quality of service and digitalization efforts of the government of Pakistan,” added Mr. Asif Siddique.

Danish A. Lakhani, CEO of Cybernet, said, “Our goal is to provide a high-capacity fiber network that continues to function in critical times. With careful planning of the fiber plant including ring-based protection and regular, proactive maintenance we aim to construct a robust national fiber backbone for use by everyone – but one which will be owned and managed by local Pakistanis. Such a backbone will not only serve the people, businesses, and institutions of Pakistan but also meet the needs of international customers who require high-capacity, cross-border connectivity.”

The new long-haul network will also provide tremendous benefit to Cybernet’s own broadband service (StormFiber) by enabling the company to provide multi-terabit transmission uplink to its broadband access network.

“This transmission network will enable us to further our mission of transforming the Pakistani economy by bringing gigabit fiber broadband service –at an affordable price— to households and businesses in every major city of Pakistan. We are on track to roll out our FTTH-based triple play service to the 25th city in Pakistan by the end of the year”, added Lakhani.

[Riaz Haq]

Starlink’s technical plan being studied by PTA, other stakeholders


https://www.brecorder.com/news/40216864


ISLAMABAD: The Starlink Internet Services has yet to satisfy the Pakistan Tele-communication Authority (PTA) and other stakeholders over its technical plan—being evaluated for the launch of services in the country, official sources revealed to Business Recorder.

According to official documents of the Ministry of Information Technology and Telecommunication and the PTA, the technical plan submitted by Starlink is under evaluation by relevant stakeholders. The Government of Pakistan is in consultation with all stakeholders including SUPARCO, LEAs, PTA, and FAB to analyse the Starlink technical and business plan, as regional and various international countries are taking cautious approach to allow or deny Starlink due to respective satellite regimes as well as security aspects.

The documents further revealed that security clearance of Starlink and related technical vulnerabilities assessment especially its data hosting outside the country and utilization of laser technology from satellite to satellite without using Earth Gateways is being analyzed by Law Enforcement Agency. Further action of granting licence or otherwise will be taken by the PTA after clearance from all stakeholders.

In accordance with existing regulatory provisions, Long Distance and International (LD1) and Local Loop (LL) licencees of PTA are allowed to provide satellite-based telecommunication services in respective licenced region(s). Starlink Internet Services Pakistan (Pvt) Ltd (Starlink) which is owned by Starlink Holdings Netherlands BV, applied for LDI licence for Pakistan on 24th February 2022 along with 14 x LL licence for all Telecom Regions of Pakistan on 29th April 2022.

All stakeholders were intimated and Starlink case is being analysed from technical perspective on non-exclusive, non-interference, and non-protection basis.

Starlink Internet Services Pakistan (Pvt) Ltd (Starlink) approached Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) to permit Starlink (SpaceX) to operate in Pakistan. Traditional satellites are operating in Pakistan in Geo Stationary Orbit (GSO) (at an altitude of 36000 kms). However, Starlink differs from GSO technically, as it operates in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at an altitude between 250 to 500 kms, thus, provides low latency connectivity.

Starlink/SpaceX satellites can also communicate with many Ground Stations at a time and conversely, one ground station can connect to many starlink satellites. Satellite-to-satellite connectivity also exists through laser technology to effectively expand footprint in all areas.

Internet bandwidth is normally accessed from ground station within the country, where services are extended through starlink thus, optical fiber cable bandwidth is up/down linked through space stations and internet services are provided to the end user in the country.

The PTA officials on Monday also briefed the Senate Standing Committee on Information Technology and Telecommunication on the Starlink issue which met under the chairmanship of Senator Kauda Babar.

Officials said that this technology is still in its early stages and further progress could not be made due to some security concerns. Senator Afnanullah Khan said it was an excellent technology for providing internet services in remote areas and it was not appropriate to forego it just because of security concerns.

Chairman Committee, Senator Kauda Babar, formed a sub-committee to settle the matter and bring it to a logical end. The Sub-committee will sit with all the stakeholders and resolve the issues.

The officials revealed that SpaceX’s Starlink currently uses beta version which is not fully secured. The committee was informed that the technology was reportedly used in a drone attack in Ukraine while it was also reported in Afghanistan as well. The committee constituted a sub-committee to look into the matter and report back to it.

[Riaz Haq]

Is Military Modernization inevitable for Pakistan?
September 15, 2022 Global Defense Insight

https://defensetalks.com/is-military-modernization-inevitable-for-p...

In today’s fast-moving world, technological advancements seem to affect all aspects of traditional and non-traditional security challenges. In this context, military modernization programs are considered to be the main driver that sets the direction to overcome these multidimensional security threats. Modern states are trying to adopt technological innovations to utilize them in military and battlefield dominance, which has created an imbalance of power and has further intensified strategic competition in the region. These disruptive technologies and strategies are true without any doubt a game-changer not just in warfare but also in geopolitics and diplomacy.

Powerful armies are modernizing their existing conventional and non-conventional military technology and weaponry systems to cope with emerging threats, challenges, and competition. This also includes the induction of new and advanced nuclear programs with modern delivery systems that may be portable, meaning very small in size. Cyber security tech is also considered to be a key part of national security today. Nonetheless, countries are investing heavily in military modernization programs as much as they can. South Asia seems to be no exception, our neighbor India is heavily investing in the modernization of their conventional weapons and programs.

The new technology-based military competition has become a major security challenge for the world. According to a SIPRI report, the US, despite having the largest defense expenditure in the world, had a net decrease in their military spending, while other countries had a 2 to 3 percent increase. The reason behind this phenomenon is that now the US focuses on military modernization and innovative technology such as weaponizing artificial intelligence rather than spending money on conventional weapons. Emerging technologies and innovations in military weaponry systems have curtailed military spending. The future seems to be infested with technology-based solutions even in traditional security threats and challenges.

National Security Policy of Pakistan and threat assessment:

According to former Ambassador Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry, the national security policy of Pakistan is based on three tenets. Economic security, human security, and traditional security make it a comprehensive national security policy. In standard procedures, threat assessment is the first step that a state takes in order to formulate national security. If an accurate threat assessment is conducted specific to your country’s interests, we will be able to devise a good national security policy. This strategy should be applied by Pakistan as well, to correspond with that assessment and new challenges that are related to the rising technological arms race in the region and the world as a whole.

Every great power is compelled to adopt new military technology and upgrade its traditional policy framework hence it is imperative for Pakistan to cope up with the modern trends in military and warfare strategies. According to former Joint Chief of Staff Committee General Zubair Mehmood Hayat, technological optimization in national defense has changed the dynamics and character of war and modern battlefields. The use of technology in military matters gives you an asymmetrical advantage. It means a small power can utilize the use of technology in their desired priorities with cutting-edge and specific fields that can compete against a much more powerful force. Pakistan army fits perfectly with this strategy of competing with much more powerful rival forces despite having such limited resources.

[Riaz Haq]

Ukraine gets its tanks: Poland sending Leopard 2, and other nations may follow
“A company of Leopard tanks for Ukraine will be transferred as part of building an international coalition,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said in a Jan 11 social media post. “Such a decision [has] already [been taken] in Poland."



https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01/ukraine-gets-its-tanks-poland-s...

The supply of the main battle tanks arrives as Ukraine looks to mount a spring counteroffensive to reclaim territories lost to Russia and ahead of a new Ramstein Ukraine contact group meeting on Jan. 20 where Western leaders could agree on additional Leopards being transferred, potentially alongside US Stryker armored protection vehicles.

“The Leopard 2 supply will give Ukraine access to a suite of vehicles they haven’t had access to since the war with Russia started and by all accounts will be very effective against Russian armor,” said Ed Arnold Research Fellow for European Security at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute.

The Leopard 2 A4 variant is equipped with a 120 mm smoothbore cannon, fire control computer and offers a range of 450km, according to manufacturer KMW. Warsaw signed off on a A4 upgrade effort in December 2015.

Arnold added that the operational impact of the Leopard tanks will depend on how many are delivered.

“It’s a very logical step to focus on the Leopard because there are far more of them in use across Europe compared to [other main battle tanks like the British Army’s] Challenger 2,” a reference to reports this week linking the UK to a potential new agreement to send those vehicles to Kyiv.

“The Government has committed to match or exceed last year’s funding for military aid to Ukraine in 2023, and we will continue to build on recent donations with training and further gifting of equipment,” said a UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesperson in a statement, declining to comment on Challenger 2 specifically.

At a capability level the Leopard 2 will offer Ukraine greater firepower, greater mobility and better protection from enemy fires supported by more modern countermeasures that Ukraine has been predominately relying on with the Soviet-era T-72 tanks, according to Arnold.

That considered, underfunding by the Bundeswehr and different standards among export customers mean that many Leopards lack the protection, weapon, and electronics upgrades of the latest version, the A7+.

Fielding the Leopard through a common logistics supply chain appears to be feasible because of how many European operators use the tanks, but a number of drawbacks include their size as they are considered relatively easy to spot from distance, require more fuel, and need a crew of four, one more than the T-72. Perhaps most problematic of all, at 55-plus metric tons, they are too heavy to safely cross many Ukrainian bridges.

In 2015, Ukrainian transportation authorities banned vehicles over 44 metric tons (49 US tons) citing potential damage to bridges and highways, an issue that could prove troublesome in terms of leading to excessive training for Ukrainian tank crews, commanders, staff planning, supply units, and maintenance on the Leopard 2, once deliveries have been made.

[Riaz Haq]

US tries to woo India away from Russia with display of F-35s, bombers

https://www.tbsnews.net/world/us-tries-woo-india-away-russia-displa...

The United States brought its most advanced fighter jet, the F-35, to India for the first time this week alongside F-16s, Super Hornets and B-1B bombers as Washington looks to woo New Delhi away from its traditional military supplier, Russia.

India, desperate to modernise its largely Soviet-era fighter jet fleet to boost its air power, is concerned about Russian supply delays due to the Ukraine war and faces pressure from the West to distance itself from Moscow.

The American delegation to the week-long Aero India show in Bengaluru, which ends on Friday, is the biggest in the 27-year history of the show and underlines the growing strategic relationship between the United States and India.

In contrast, Russia, India's largest weapons supplier since the Soviet Union days, had a nominal presence. Its state-owned weapons exporter Rosoboronexport had a joint stall with United Aircraft and Almaz-Antey, displaying miniature models of aircraft, trucks, radars and tanks.

At previous editions of the show, Rosoboronexport had a more central position for its stall, although Russia has not brought a fighter jet to Bengaluru for a decade after India began considering more European and U.S. fighter jets.

Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets have already entered the race to supply fighter jets for the Indian Navy's second aircraft carrier and Lockheed Martin's F-21, an upgraded F-16 designed for India unveiled at Aero India in 2019, are also being offered to the air force.

A $20 billion air force proposal to buy 114 multi-role fighter aircraft has been pending for five years, brought into sharp focus by tensions with China and Pakistan.

The F-35 is not being considered by India "as of now", according to an Indian Air Force (IAF) source, but the display of two F-35s at Aero India for the first time was a sign of New Delhi's growing strategic importance to Washington.

It was "not a sales pitch" but rather a signal to the importance of the bilateral defence relationship in the Indo-Pacific region, said Angad Singh, an independent defence analyst.

"Even if weapons sales aren't the cornerstone of the relationship, there is a cooperation and collaboration at the military level between India and the U.S.," he added.

The United States is selective about which countries it allows to buy the F-35. When asked if it would be offered to India, Rear Admiral Michael L. Baker, defence attache at the U.S. embassy in India, said New Delhi was in the "very early stages" of considering whether it wanted the plane.

An IAF spokeperson did not respond to a request for comment on its interest in F-35s.

Ahead of the show, Russian state news agencies reported that Moscow had supplied New Delhi with around $13 billion of arms in the past five years and had placed orders for $10 billion.

The United States has approved arms sales worth more than $6 billion to India in the last six years, including transport aircraft, Apache, Chinook and MH-60 helicopters, missiles, air defence systems, naval guns and P-8I Poseidon surveillance aircraft.

India also wants to manufacture more defence equipment at home in collaboration with global giants, first to meet its own needs and eventually to export sophisticated weapons platforms.

[Riaz Haq]

Super Fast Gigabit Fiber Internet is Coming to 11 Cities in Pakistan Soon

https://propakistani.pk/2023/06/07/super-fast-gigabit-fiber-interne...

Pakistan is about to get ultra-fast gigabit fiber internet in eleven cities soon, as per government documents available with ProPakistani.

This document highlights the Public Sector Development Project (PDSP) budget during the period of 2022-2024. It includes a summary of current ongoing projects, future projects, and more under the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives.

Under the Information Technology and Telecom Division, it highlights a new scheme for a project that will expand Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) Fiber to the Home (FTTH) services to eleven cities.

In simpler words, super fast gigabit internet is coming to more cities soon, as mentioned earlier. The project’s approval status is still “under process”, so it will probably be a while before it sees the light of day.

The government has approved a cost of Rs. 800 million and there is no foreign aid on this particular project. An additional Rs. 50 million will be allocated to this project during the course of 2023-2024.

Other Development Projects
The IT section of the document also highlights dozens of other projects the govt is working on at the moment, such as 4 more knowledge parks, a technology park development project, an online recruitment system for FPSC, smart offices for Federal Ministries and Departments, expansion of broadband services in Kashmir and Gilgit, and much more.

[Riaz Haq]

In a first, Pakistan sets up task force for ‘accelerated adoption’ of AI

https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2286746/pakistan


Key objective of task force is to develop roadmap for AI adoption in several government institutions
Minister says AI integration in governance, health care, education systems will revolutionize sectors
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani government has formed a national task force to accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in different sectors, including business, development, governance, education, and health care, the Pakistani planning ministry said on Friday.

Governments as well as private sectors across the world are reaping exceptional benefits by integrating AI into their day-to-day functions. Global technology company, Intel, says that artificial intelligence can help companies and government institutions work efficiently, manage costs, and improve research, among other benefits.

The incorporation of AI in different government sectors will lead to improved decision-making processes, personalized medical treatments, and enhanced learning experiences and solutions that were previously unattainable, according to the planning ministry.

“Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal has formed a 15-member National Task Force (NTF) on Artificial Intelligence (IA) for the country’s national development,” the planning ministry said in a statement.

“The key objective of the (NTF) is to develop a 10-year roadmap for accelerated adoption of AI in the business, development, governance, education, and health care sectors. The NTF force will comprise experts in artificial intelligence as well as representatives from the government and private sectors.”

The planning minister emphasized the importance of artificial intelligence for progress in the near future and stated that it would bring “transformative changes” in the fields of economy, governance, and education, according to the statement.

The task force aims to harness the power of AI for Pakistan’s development and growth while ensuring that the benefits are accessible to all segments of society.

“Establishing the NTF on AI is part of the government’s commitment to embracing AI and its potential to transform the country’s economic landscape positively,” the statement quoted Iqbal as saying.

By investing in AI, Iqbal said, Pakistan could unlock new opportunities for growth and development and improve the lives of its citizens.

“The integration of AI in our governance, health care, and education systems has the potential to revolutionize these sectors and bring about significant progress,” he added.

[Riaz Haq]

The future of war: A special report


https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2023-07-08

Big wars are tragedies for the people and countries that fight them. They also transform how the world prepares for conflict, with momentous consequences for global security. Britain, France and Germany sent observers to the American civil war to study battles like Gettysburg. The tank duels of the Yom Kippur war in 1973 accelerated the shift of America’s army from the force that lost in Vietnam to the one that thumped Iraq in 1991. That campaign, in turn, led China’s leaders to rebuild the People’s Liberation Army into the formidable force it is today.

The war in Ukraine is the largest in Europe since 1945. It will shape the understanding of combat for decades to come. It has shattered any illusions that modern conflict might be limited to counterinsurgency campaigns or evolve towards low-casualty struggles in cyberspace. Instead it points to a new kind of high-intensity war that combines cutting-edge tech with industrial-scale killing and munitions consumption, even as it draws in civilians, allies and private firms. You can be sure that autocratic regimes are studying how to get an edge in any coming conflict. Rather than recoiling from the death and destruction, liberal societies must recognise that wars between industrialised economies are an all-too-real prospect—and start to prepare.



As our special report explains, Ukraine’s killing fields hold three big lessons. The first is that the battlefield is becoming transparent. Forget binoculars or maps; think of all-seeing sensors on satellites and fleets of drones. Cheap and ubiquitous, they yield data for processing by ever-improving algorithms that can pick out needles from haystacks: the mobile signal of a Russian general, say, or the outline of a camouflaged tank. This information can then be relayed by satellites to the lowliest soldier at the front, or used to aim artillery and rockets with unprecedented precision and range.

This quality of hyper-transparency means that future wars will hinge on reconnaissance. The priorities will be to detect the enemy first, before they spot you; to blind their sensors, whether drones or satellites; and to disrupt their means of sending data across the battlefield, whether through cyber-attacks, electronic warfare or old-fashioned explosives. Troops will have to develop new ways of fighting, relying on mobility, dispersal, concealment and deception. Big armies that fail to invest in new technologies or to develop new doctrines will be overwhelmed by smaller ones that do.

Even in the age of artificial intelligence, the second lesson is that war may still involve an immense physical mass of hundreds of thousands of humans, and millions of machines and munitions. Casualties in Ukraine have been severe: the ability to see targets and hit them precisely sends the body-count soaring. To adapt, troops have shifted mountains of mud to dig trenches worthy of Verdun or Passchendaele. The consumption of munitions and equipment is staggering: Russia has fired 10m shells in a year. Ukraine loses 10,000 drones per month. It is asking its allies for old-school cluster munitions to help its counter-offensive.



Eventually, technology may change how this requirement for physical “mass” is met and maintained. On June 30th General Mark Milley, America’s most senior soldier, predicted that a third of advanced armed forces would be robotic in 10-15 years’ time: think of pilotless air forces and crewless tanks. Yet armies need to be able to fight in this decade as well as the next one. That means replenishing stockpiles to prepare for high attrition rates, creating the industrial capacity to manufacture hardware at far greater scale and ensuring that armies have reserves of manpower. A nato summit on July 11th and 12th will be a test of whether Western countries can continue to reinvigorate their alliance to these ends.

[Riaz Haq]

The future of war: A special report


https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2023-07-08


The third lesson—one that also applied for much of the 20th century—is that the boundary of a big war is wide and indistinct. The West’s conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq were fought by small professional armies and imposed a light burden on civilians at home (but often lots of misery on local people). In Ukraine civilians have been sucked into the war as victims—over 9,000 have died—but also participants: a provincial grandmother can help guide artillery fire through a smartphone app. And beyond the old defence-industrial complex, a new cohort of private firms has proved crucial. Ukraine’s battlefield software is hosted on big tech’s cloud servers abroad; Finnish firms provide targeting data and American ones satellite comms. A network of allies, with different levels of commitment, has helped supply Ukraine and enforce sanctions and an embargo on Russian trade.

New boundaries create fresh problems. The growing participation of civilians raises legal and ethical questions. Private companies located outside the physical conflict zone may be subject to virtual or armed attack. As new firms become involved, governments need to ensure that no company is a single point of failure.

No two wars are the same. A fight between India and China may take place on the rooftop of the world. A Sino-American clash over Taiwan would feature more air and naval power, long-range missiles and disruptions to trade. The mutual threat of nuclear use has probably acted to limit escalation in Ukraine: nato has not directly engaged a nuclear-armed enemy and Russia’s threats have been bluster so far. But in a fight over Taiwan, America and China would be tempted to attack each other in space, which could lead to nuclear escalation, especially if early-warning and command-and-control satellites were disabled.

Silicon Valley and the Somme
For liberal societies the temptation is to step back from the horrors of Ukraine, and from the vast cost and effort of modernising their armed forces. Yet they cannot assume that such a conflict, between large industrialised economies, will be a one-off event. An autocratic and unstable Russia may pose a threat to the West for decades to come. China’s rising military clout is a destabilising factor in Asia, and a global resurgence of autocracy could make conflicts more likely. Armies that do not learn the lessons of the new kind of industrial war on display in Ukraine risk losing to those that do. ■

[Riaz Haq]

The PAF is finally phasing out its oldest fighter jet French-built Mirage III. Another fleet of Mirage 5 is also under the retirement plan.


https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence-pakistan-air-forc...

Under the modernization plan, PAF has already purchased 22 J-10 CE fighter jets. In fact, according to the deal, PAF may acquire another 100 jets with specific enhancements.

The J-10C is a four-plus generation medium-sized fighter jet. The J-10C holds an upgraded jet engine than the China-Pakistan jointly developed lightweight fighter jet, the JF-17, currently being used by the PAF

While JC-10 comes with a fully integrated weapon, avionic and combat system, it lacks a bigger active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar than the one used by the JF-17 Block 3.

However, it can carry more advanced, air-to-air missiles including the short-range PL-10 and the beyond-visual-range PL-15.

The bulk purchase from China is also about the financing which Pakistan can leverage amid its economic turmoil.

The financial compulsion — cheaper loans from China—is the key factor for Pakistan’s modernization budget.

Besides, its existing fleet of US-built F-16s also demands overall upgradation and overhauling.

Reports suggest that Pakistan is also looking for KJ-500 early warning aircraft and Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft.