US-Pakistan F-16 Deal: Indian EAM Jaishankar Throws a Tantrum

[Riaz Haq]

“You’re not fooling anybody by saying these things," said Indian External Affairs Minister Subramanian Jaishankar to his American hosts in Washington. He was lashing out at the United States for the State Department's explanation for the $450 million F-16 "sustainment" package sale to Pakistan. Earlier,  the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said in an announcement: 

“This proposed sale ($450 million F-16 package) will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by allowing Pakistan to retain interoperability with US and partner forces in ongoing counter-terrorism efforts and in preparation for future contingency operations.” The US State Department spokesman Ned Price talked about "shared values" and "shared interests" of his country with both India and Pakistan. He also recommended that "these two neighbors have relations with one another that are as constructive as can be possible".   

US Secretary of State Tony Blinken (L), Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar

Responding to Jaishankar's outburst, the US State Department spokesman Ned Price said, “We don’t view our relationship with Pakistan, and … our relationship with India as in relation to one another. These are both partners of ours with different points of emphasis in each. We look at both as partners, because we do have in many cases shared values. We do have in many cases shared interests. And the relationship we have with India stands on its own. The relationship we have with Pakistan stands on its own. We also want to do everything we can to see to it that these neighbors have relations with one another that are as constructive as can be possible. And so that’s another point of emphasis.”

President Joe Biden & First Lady Jill with Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif at the UN HQ

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently attended a summit meeting of the China-Russia sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. India is a full member of this alliance which has been created to counter the US dominance in Asia. At the same time, New Delhi has also joined QUAD, a group of 4 nations (Australia, India, Japan and US) formed by the United States  to counter China's rise. Simultaneous membership of these two competing alliances is raising serious questions about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's real intentions and trustworthiness. It appears that there is an Indian policy shift from "non-alignment" to "all-alignment".

Writing an Op Ed for The Indian Express about Jaishankar's fit of anger, Indian journalist Nirupama Subramanian put it in the following words: “As Delhi demonstrates “strategic autonomy” to engage with every side — Quad one week, and Russia and China the next at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand — and work around Western sanctions to buy oil from Russia, and keep friends in all camps, it may have to come to terms that others in world play the same game.”

US Visa Appointment Wait Time. Source: US State Department

Jaishankar also raised the issue of long appointment wait times for Indians seeking visas to come to the United States. "In India, there are families unable to meet; students waiting for a long time. So it is a serious problem. But, I'm confident that, with the sincerity Secretary Blinken showed, they would address this, and with any support that we can provide, we hope things will improve," he said.  Secretary Anthony Blinken said in response, "We had constraints from COVID about the number of people we could have in our embassies at any one time etc. We are now building back very determined really from that surging resources. We have a plan when it comes to India to address the backlog of visas that have built up. I think you'll see that play out in the coming months."

US Visa Appointment Wait Time. Source: US State Department

Currently, the waiting period for Indian applicants in  New Delhi is 444 calendar days for student/exchange visitor visas, 758 calendar days for visitor visas and 354 calendar days for all other non-immigrant visas. 

 

US Visa Appointment Wait Time. Source: US State Department

The appointment waiting period for Pakistani applicants in Islamabad is one calendar day for student/exchange visitor visas, 450 calendar days for visitor and one calendar day for all other non-immigrant visas.  For the Chinese applicants in Beijing it is two calendar days for student/exchange visitor and students visas and three calendar days for all other non-immigrant visas. 

 

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[Riaz Haq]

The PAF is finally phasing out its oldest fighter jet French-built Mirage III. Another fleet of Mirage 5 is also under the retirement plan.


https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence-pakistan-air-forc...

Under the modernization plan, PAF has already purchased 22 J-10 CE fighter jets. In fact, according to the deal, PAF may acquire another 100 jets with specific enhancements.

The J-10C is a four-plus generation medium-sized fighter jet. The J-10C holds an upgraded jet engine than the China-Pakistan jointly developed lightweight fighter jet, the JF-17, currently being used by the PAF

While JC-10 comes with a fully integrated weapon, avionic and combat system, it lacks a bigger active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar than the one used by the JF-17 Block 3.

However, it can carry more advanced, air-to-air missiles including the short-range PL-10 and the beyond-visual-range PL-15.

The bulk purchase from China is also about the financing which Pakistan can leverage amid its economic turmoil.

The financial compulsion — cheaper loans from China—is the key factor for Pakistan’s modernization budget.

Besides, its existing fleet of US-built F-16s also demands overall upgradation and overhauling.

Reports suggest that Pakistan is also looking for KJ-500 early warning aircraft and Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft.

[Riaz Haq]

#Pakistan beats #India 38-18 in #UNESCO vote for executive board vice chair. This also comes at a time when India has been projecting itself as the ‘voice’ of the ‘Global South’ — low- and middle-income countries in #Africa, #Asia and #LatinAmerica.

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/pakistan-beats-india-38-18-at-unesco-...

Islamabad's candidate secured the post of vice-chairperson of the UNESCO executive board. India’s defeat contravenes decades of its diplomatic policy approach to such elections.
KESHAV PADMANABHAN

New Delhi: Pakistan beat India with more than double the votes to secure the post of vice-chair of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) executive board last week. While 38 members of the 58-member executive board voted for Islamabad’s candidate, only 18 voted for New Delhi’s representative, and two countries abstained.


The executive board is one of the three constitutional organs of UNESCO — a specialised agency of the United Nations (UN) aimed at promoting world peace and security through international cooperation in education, sciences, culture, communication and information. The other two are the general conference and the secretariat.


India was elected to the UNESCO executive board in 2021 for a four-year term till 2025. Pakistan was elected earlier this year for a four-year term that will end in 2027.

India’s defeat in this vote contravenes decades of its diplomatic policy approach to such elections. “India’s policy has always been to stand in elections that are winnable. If the election is deemed risky, then full efforts are made to ensure India’s victory,” an individual familiar with the matter told ThePrint.

This also comes at a time when India has been projecting itself as the ‘voice’ of the ‘Global South’ — a term used to refer to low- and middle-income countries located in the Southern Hemisphere, mainly in Africa, Asia and Latin America. While the election was held by secret ballot, that India received only 18 votes suggests that these ‘Global South’ countries may have largely sided with Pakistan, since they form the majority of the board members.

The bureau of the executive board consists of 12 members — the chairperson, six vice-chairpersons and the five chairpersons of the permanent commissions and committees. The key roles played by the bureau include setting the agenda and allocating time for executive board meetings. The vice-chairperson has no decision-making powers.

All members of UNESCO are grouped into six regional electoral groups, and each such group is represented by a vice-chairperson. This latest election won by Pakistan was for the vice-chairperson of Group IV, which includes Australia, Bangladesh, China, Cook Islands, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

On 24 November, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan had posted on X, stating that Islamabad was elected as vice-chairperson with “overwhelming support”.

India’s permanent representative to the UNESCO is a political appointee, Vishal V. Sharma, a former independent director of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) as well as former officer on special duty to Narendra Modi when he was Gujarat chief minister.

[Riaz Haq]

Misguided foreign policy leaves India friendless in South Asia, claims Japanese media outlet Nikkei - Muslim Mirror


https://muslimmirror.com/misguided-foreign-policy-leaves-india-frie...


In a recent report, Japanese media outlet Nikkei Asia has criticized India’s foreign policy, claiming that it has led to the country’s increasing isolation in South Asia. The report suggests that India’s diplomatic strategies under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government have backfired, leaving the nation with few allies in its own neighborhood.

The Nikkei report highlights strained relations with key regional players like Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, countries that have traditionally maintained close ties with India. These tensions have reportedly been fueled by a combination of internal political dynamics, mismanagement of regional partnerships, and India’s perceived alignment with global powers like the U.S. and Japan.

Strained Relations with Nepal and Bangladesh

One of the focal points of the article is India’s deteriorating relationship with Nepal. The report claims that India’s heavy-handed approach to Nepal’s constitutional crisis in 2015, followed by its blockade of essential supplies, has left a lasting negative impact on bilateral ties. Nepal has since sought closer relations with China, a move that has caused concern in New Delhi.

In Bangladesh, the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam have led to growing distrust of India. The policies, which many Bangladeshis view as targeting their population, have strained relations, despite decades of cooperation on trade, infrastructure, and security. The Nikkei article notes that Dhaka is now looking to diversify its partnerships, with China emerging as a significant alternative.

India’s Influence in Sri Lanka and the Maldives

India’s relationship with Sri Lanka has also faced challenges, according to Nikkei. Although India has provided financial aid to help Sri Lanka manage its recent economic crisis, the growing Chinese influence on the island nation, including Beijing’s investments in key infrastructure projects, has limited India’s influence.

In the Maldives, China’s expanding footprint has similarly reduced India’s traditional clout. While India has worked to rebuild its influence through initiatives like the “Neighborhood First” policy, the article suggests that these efforts have been slow to produce results.

China’s Growing Influence in South Asia

According to Nikkei, China has capitalized on India’s strained relations with its neighbors by making strategic investments and forming partnerships across South Asia. From large infrastructure projects in Pakistan and Sri Lanka to growing trade ties with Bangladesh and Nepal, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a key tool in expanding its influence.

The report implies that India’s inability to counter China’s growing presence in the region stems from miscalculations in foreign policy, with New Delhi’s focus on global partnerships coming at the expense of regional diplomacy. India’s reluctance to openly challenge China’s influence while prioritizing ties with the U.S., Japan, and Australia through the Quad alliance has, according to Nikkei, weakened its position in South Asia.

The Nikkei report concludes by urging India to recalibrate its foreign policy and restore ties with its South Asian neighbors. It argues that a more balanced and inclusive approach to regional diplomacy, combined with efforts to counter China’s growing influence, is crucial for India to regain its position as a regional leader.

As India faces significant geopolitical challenges, including tensions with Pakistan and China, its ability to maintain strong ties with its immediate neighbors is becoming increasingly critical.

[Riaz Haq]

Ashok Swain
@ashoswai
Canada’s PM Justin Trudeau says Indian diplomats of the Modi regime, together with an Indian criminal gang, are engaged in murder & extortion of Canadians in Canada. When a criminal heads the government, it turns the government machinery to a criminal gang!

https://x.com/ashoswai/status/1845949810932596861

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Canada on Monday ordered six Indian diplomats to leave the country, including India’s top diplomat in Ottawa, Sanjay Kumar Verma, officials said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/canada-modi-sikhs-v...

The killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada last year was part of a broader campaign of violence against Indian dissidents directed by a senior official in the Indian government and an operative in the country’s spy agency, according to Canadian officials who cited intercepted Indian communications and other newly acquired information.

Canadian authorities have also identified at least six Indian diplomats serving in Canada who were directly involved in gathering detailed intelligence on Sikh separatists who were then killed, attacked or threatened by India’s criminal proxies, Canadian officials said.

Canada ordered all six of those diplomats to leave the country in notices that were sent early Monday, the officials said. Among them were India’s top diplomat in the country, Sanjay Kumar Verma, and its top consular official in Toronto, the officials said.



The Biden administration, which has cultivated closer ties with India, last year confronted Modi administration officials with intelligence that an officer in India’s Research and Analysis Wing, a spy service known as RAW, was behind an attempt to assassinate a Sikh separatist in New York — a failed plot with parallels to the Nijjar case in Canada. The Post identified the RAW officer as Vikram Yadav, though he was not named in a U.S. indictment accusing an alleged Indian drug trafficker of seeking to hire a hit man to carry out the killing.

Nijjar and Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the target of the New York plot, were leaders of a movement that for decades has campaigned to carve out an independent Sikh state in northern India. The movement was marked by violent clashes in the 1980s, but has been relatively dormant since a crackdown led to a mass exodus of Sikhs to other countries.

Modi, who came to power as a champion of Hindu nationalism, has revived concerns about the supposed threat posed by Sikhs living abroad. Modi and other officials have frequently accused Canada, which has the world’s largest population of Sikhs outside India, of harboring terrorists.



Canadian officials said they only recently began to grasp the magnitude of the covert campaign of violence India has waged against Sikhs as new evidence emerged from an ongoing investigation of Nijjar’s killing that is led by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police but has involved other agencies, as well as intelligence provided by the United States and other allies.

Officials said the investigation has uncovered evidence of Indian government involvement in home invasions, drive-by shootings, arson and at least one additional killing.

Officials cited the death of Sukhdool Singh, who was shot in Winnipeg on Sept. 20, 2023, less than a day after he was featured in a wanted list of gangsters posted on X by India’s National Investigation Agency. The killing came two days after Trudeau publicly accused India of killing Nijjar.

[Riaz Haq]

Pravin Sawhney
@PravinSawhney
As the SCO meeting which begins in Islamabad today, three Pakistan's bilaterals to watch out for are with:
1. Russian 76 member strong delegation
2. 200 members strong Chinese delegation
3. with Iran delegation.
These bilaterals will likely have impact on Pakistan's sought Brics membership - at 16th Brics in Russia from Oct 22-24.

Pakistan's two big geopolitical advantages (if it can harness them) are:
A. It has developed close ties with two Great Powers (China & Russia) which matter most in Asia Pacific
B. It can play an important role in Middle East - when it is at brink of larger regional war.

India's minister
@DrSJaishankar
is expected to talk about terrorism & sovereignty- which given India's recent spat with Canada is not likely to sound credible!

https://x.com/PravinSawhney/status/1845996235762893255

----------------------
Foreign dignitaries arrive for SCO summit spadework

https://www.dawn.com/news/1865054

Informed sources told Dawn that a four-member delegation from India, 76 delegates from Russia, 15 representatives of China, a two-member team from Iran and a four-member delegation from Kyrgyzstan reached Islamabad on Sunday.

Seven delegates of SCO also arrived in the capital.


Government of Pakistan
@GovtofPakistan
Pakistan is honored to host the 23rd SCO Heads of Government Meeting in Islamabad from October 15th to 16th, reflecting its commitment to regional cooperation.

The summit will focus on enhancing regional cooperation, trade, and financial integrity among member states, significantly boosting Pakistan’s image and future prospects. By positioning Pakistan as a trade hub for Central Asia, the summit aims to promote economic integration, a digital economy and cultural exchanges, fostering regional prosperity and stability.

https://x.com/GovtofPakistan/status/1845693140369330493

[Riaz Haq]

Why the US can't afford to sever military ties with Pakistan despite deep suspicions – Firstpost

Simantik Dowerah

https://www.firstpost.com/world/united-states/why-the-us-cant-affor...



Recent naval exercises

In October 2024, the US and Pakistan conducted a significant bilateral naval exercise in the Arabian Sea, involving the USS O’Kane and Pakistan Navy Ship Babur. This exercise, part of a series of collaborations aimed at enhancing maritime security, focused on improving readiness, countering terrorism and ensuring the freedom of navigation in key international waters. According to Pakistan Navy’s media wing, the exercise reflects both nations’ commitment to regional peace and stability. The ongoing partnership, especially in areas like maritime interdiction and mine countermeasures, showcases the critical role the navies play in maintaining order in the region.

These naval drills come at a time when the US is recalibrating its foreign policy in light of rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with China and Russia. Despite these global shifts, Pakistan continues to be seen as a valuable partner, particularly in the US 5th Fleet’s area of operations, which spans the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.


The broader context

While the naval exercises highlight the current military engagement, they are part of a larger pattern of cooperation between the two nations. Earlier in 2024, both countries participated in Inspired Union 2024, a four-day military exercise in Karachi that focussed on maritime interdiction, explosive ordnance disposal and harbour security. Exercises like this, as well as the Infantry Rifle Company Exchange, which focussed on counterterrorism in urban settings, emphasise the shared security concerns that bind the two nations together.

These collaborations reflect a broader military relationship that has weathered significant ups and downs. From Cold War-era alliances aimed at containing Soviet influence to post-9/11 cooperation in the War on Terror, US-Pakistan military ties have been shaped by shifting geopolitical imperatives. Although tensions have arisen, particularly over Pakistan’s alleged support for Taliban factions, military cooperation has remained a cornerstone of the relationship, with both countries recognising the strategic value of working together on security issues.

Suspicion and strategic cooperation

Despite the ongoing military exercises, Washington’s relationship with Islamabad is marked by suspicion and caution. The US has long harboured concerns over Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions and its dual dealings with militant groups like the Taliban, which have strained bilateral trust. The 1985 Pressler Amendment, which curtailed US aid due to Pakistan’s nuclear programme, is a stark example of how strategic concerns can lead to a rift in relations.

However, the need for counterterrorism cooperation, especially following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, has kept security ties afloat. Pakistan’s geographic location, with its long border with Afghanistan, makes it a crucial partner in regional stability efforts. The US continues to engage with Pakistan on security issues, providing military aid and conducting joint exercises, even as it keeps a wary eye on Islamabad’s broader geopolitical moves.

China factor

The evolving global power dynamics, particularly the US focus on countering China’s influence, have added a new layer of complexity to US-Pakistan ties. The Biden administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) emphasises the importance of building alliances in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s growing clout. Pakistan, with its close relationship with China, has become a key factor in Washington’s regional calculus.