Indian River Projects Threaten Bangladesh Water Security

[Riaz Haq]

New Delhi is starting massive series of new projects to divert water from major rivers in the north and the east of the country to India's drought-stricken western and southern regions. This news has sounded alarm bells in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka, according to the UK's Guardian newspaper.

The $400 billion project involves rerouting water from major rivers including the Ganga and Brahmaputra and creating canals to link the Ken and Batwa rivers in central India and Damanganga-Pinjal in the west. Its target is to help drought-hit India farmers who are killing themselves at a rate on one every 30 minutes for at least two decades.

The Indo-Gangetic Plain, also known as Indus-Ganga and the North Indian River Plain, is a 255 million hectare (630 million acre) fertile plain encompassing most of northern and eastern India, the eastern parts of Pakistan, and virtually all of Bangladesh, according to a Wikipedia entry.

India and Pakistan have a formal internationally-brokered and monitored treaty called Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) signed in 1960 between Indian Prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan President Ayub Khan in Karachi.

The IWT allocated water from three eastern rivers of Ravi, Beas and Sutlej for exclusive use by India before they enter Pakistan, while the water from three western rivers of Jhelum, Chenab and Indus was allocated for exclusive use of Pakistan. The treaty essentially partitioned the rivers rather than sharing of their waters. The treaty also permits India to build run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers but it can not divert any water from them for its own use.

In the east, River Ganga upon reaching the Indian state of West Bengal splits into two main branches, the Hooghly which continues its course south into West Bengal and the Padma that flows into Bangladesh. Similarly, the Brahmaputra upon reaching Bangladesh splits into two main distributaries, the Jamuna and the Meghna. Both enter Bangladesh at different points.

At least 100 million Bangladeshis living downstream in Jamuna (Brahmaputra) and Padma (Ganga) river basins will be hit hard if India carries out the project as planned.

Alarmed by this development, Bangladesh’s minister of water, Nazrul Islam, has pleaded with the Indian government to take Bangladesh’s water needs into consideration, noting that 54 of 56 Indian rivers flowed through his country.

Bangladesh is already suffering from India's increasing withdrawal of Ganges water in recent years. India has built at least 26 water diversion projects upstream the Ganges which has led to crop failure and even desertification of certain areas in the lower riparian Bangladesh, according to Dhaka Tribune.

Unlike the internationally-brokered and monitored Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between Pakistan and India, there is no similar water-sharing treaty between Bangladesh and India. The 1996 Farakka treaty has done little to help Bangladesh.  It is dependent entirely on the good-will of the rulers in Delhi for its water life-line.

Will Modi respond positively to the pleas of his strong ally in Bangladesh's Shaikh Hasina to take its eastern neighbor's water needs into consideration? Will Modi assure Bangladesh by signing a binding water-sharing treaty along the lines of the Indus Waters Treaty? Unfortunately, the history suggests otherwise.

Related Links:

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Recurring Floods and Droughts in Pakistan

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Shaikh Hasina's Witch Hunt

[Riaz Haq]

The ground under Sheikh Hasina’s feet is shifting

By Avinash Paliwal

https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/the-ground-under-sheikh-hasi...

But her real challenge doesn't
come from known opponents.
It comes from opaque factions
within a securitised State (and
the party) that has made so
much illicit profit that being
out of power is not an option
for them. This leaves Hasina
with an unenviable dilemma.
Either she allows free elections
and risks being ousted or
manipulates them and invites
international opprobrium that
could unleash mass protests
and violence. Bereft of a clear
succession plan, both these
scenarios could tempt oppor-
tunistic adversaries to force a
regime change, of which there
is an unfortunately rich his-
tory in Bangladesh.
Hasina's internal problems are
linked to external dependen-
cies. Politically reliant on New
Delhi, she is finding it increas-
ingly difficult to manage the
ramifications of India's turn
towards Hindu nationalism
that misuses migration from
Bangladesh and the Rohingya
crisis for domestic electoral
gain. Similarly, accepting of
Chinese finance that may not
translate into political sup-
port, Dhaka is struggling to
keep targeted US sanctions
against the Rapid Action Bat-
talion, an anticrime and anti-
terrorism unit of the
Bangladesh Police, for serious
human rights violations, at
bay. Dhaka's replacement of
its ambassador in Washington
DC after a visit by a team of AL
parliamentarians from the
standing committee on foreign
affairs will make little differ-
ence in how the US deals with
Bangladesh.
Add to this, an uptick in
demand for repatriating
Rohingya migrants - some of
whom have been silently
resettled in the Chittagong Hill
Tracts to the locals' displeas-
ure - to Myanmar, including
within Bangladesh's military
establishment, and the situ-
ation becomes even more
volatile. Hasina requires a
political off-ramp to prevent a
foreseeable crisis that can turn
violent. The last thing the sub-
continent needs is turmoil in
Bangladesh

[Riaz Haq]

Hague court rejects #India objections over #water row with #Pakistan. “In a unanimous decision, which is binding on the Parties & without appeal, the Court rejected each of the objections raised by India and determined that the Court is competent to consider and determine the disputes set forth in Pakistan’s Request for Arbitration” https://aje.io/e4ujxm via @AJEnglish

Permanent Court of Arbitration rejects India’s objections to a Pakistan-initiated procedure over water use in the Indus River basin.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague has rejected India’s objections to a Pakistan-initiated procedure over water use in the Indus River basin, reopening a procedure that had been blocked for many years.

India called the arbitration proceeding illegal as a neutral expert was also looking at the issue and the World Bank-brokered treaty prohibits parallel proceedings, the Reuters news agency reported on Thursday.

The South Asian neighbours have been arguing over hydroelectric projects on the shared Indus River and its tributaries for decades, with Pakistan complaining that India’s planned hydropower dams in upstream areas will cut flows on the river which feeds 80 percent of its irrigated agriculture.

To resolve the dispute, Pakistan sought resolution through PCA arbitration proceedings in 2016, prompting India to request that the World Bank appoint a neutral expert under the terms of the treaty. India has boycotted The Hague court proceedings and questioned the competence of the court.

“In a unanimous decision, which is binding on the Parties and without appeal, the Court rejected each of the objections raised by India and determined that the Court is competent to consider and determine the disputes set forth in Pakistan’s Request for Arbitration,” the court said in a statement on Thursday.

It gave no details on when and how the case will continue, but added that it will address the interpretation and application of the bilateral Indus Water Treaty, notably the provisions on hydroelectric projects, as well as the legal effect of past decisions of dispute resolution bodies under the treaty.

A spokesman for India’s foreign ministry, Arindam Bagchi, said India’s “consistent and principled position has been that the constitution of this so-called court of arbitration is in contravention of the clear letter and spirit of the Indus Water Treaty”.

He said India was participating in the proceedings of the neutral expert, which he called “the only treaty-consistent proceedings at this juncture”.

“Legal sophistry” will not compel India to participate in the proceedings of the PCA, Bagchi said.

India says the construction of its Kishanganga and Ratle Hydro Electric projects is allowed by the treaty.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office said it remained fully committed to the implementation of the Indus Water Treaty and its settlement mechanism, which it termed a “foundational agreement” between the two countries.

“We hope that India would also implement the Treaty in good faith,” Foreign Office spokeswoman Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said in a statement on Thursday night.

[Riaz Haq]

The gates of Sulemanki Headworks were opened, closing them could have worsened the situation in Punjab. Pakistan Friendly Hand; Punjab Under Flood Condition | Pak Open Sulemanki head Works India Pakistan Border


https://india.postsen.com/local/806198.html

Sulemani Headworks built on Sutlej River in Pakistan.

Pakistan has extended a hand of friendship amidst the flood situation in India. The country which used to close the gates of its headworks and dams in the event of floods in Punjab, has opened the gates of Sulemanki headworks this year. This step taken by Pakistan has brought a big relief. In the past, 1.92 lakh cusecs of water reached the neighboring country from Hussainiwala.


In the last 6 days, floods have caused a lot of destruction in Punjab. While the situation has worsened in the eastern case, it is now being felt in western Malwa as well due to the release of water from the Harike headworks. Initially Pakistan had closed its gates of Sulemanki Headworks near Fazilka, but now water is flowing smoothly into Pakistani territory.

Water level in Harike crossed 2.14 lakh cusecs
With this step taken by Pakistan, the major threat of flood in Fazilka has been averted for the time being. In the past, 2.14 lakh cusecs of water was seen flowing in Harike of Sutlej. At the same time, the flow of water near Hussainiwala was recorded at 1.92 lakh cusecs, which is flowing towards Pakistan.

[Riaz Haq]

Modi Bhakts are fools if they believe India can just simply turn off the rivers like a tap.

It's no easy feat to stop raging western rivers down steep high mountains in the Indian territory. It's a massive undertaking to build dams and divert that water into canals in that mountainous terrain.

Indian geo-analytical expert Bhagat has said: “The topography of the region doesn’t allow big dams to be built The only river whose water can be diverted to an extent is Chenab that would need massive investments.”

An Indian environmentalist Himanshu Thakkar has said the risks of building dams on Chenab river are too high. “We already have the largest number of existing, under construction and planned projects in this very fragile, disaster-prone area. This is also a location where experts have warned about the major risks of landslides, floods, seismic activity and glacial lake outburst floods,” says Thakkar, the coordinator of non-profit South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers, and People (SANDRP).

However, some experts say that if India begins controlling the flow with its existing and potential infrastructure, Pakistan could feel the impact during the dry season, when water availability is already at its lowest. One possibility is more frequent de-silting on dams on the Indian side in low water season.

To overcome the issue of water availability in dry season, Pakistan is accelerating its dam construction projects to store large amounts of water in the wet season, particularly Mohmand, Dasu and Diamer Bhasha dams.

There are other ways to exert pressure on India.

For example, India is a "middle riparian" state. The water in these rivers comes from Tibet in China, then flows through India to Pakistan.

For example, the Sutlej River originates in southwestern Tibet, which is part of China, and flows through India and Pakistan before eventually joining the Indus River. China's control over the river's source in Tibet, combined with its infrastructure development on the river, has raised concerns in India about potential water manipulation and its impact on downstream water availability.

And finally, Pakistan has warned India and the world that any attempt to divert water from the western rivers will be seen as an "act of war" and responded to by force.

[Riaz Haq]

Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
It's done: China just launched the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo dam project (https://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3318875/chinas-li-qia...).

It'll be by far the world’s largest hydroelectric facility, generating 3 times more electricity than the Three Gorges dam, 300 billion kilowatt-hours (and store 40 million acre-feet of water). 

This dam project alone could power almost a quarter (21.6%) of all US households, since the average U.S. household consumes about 10,500 kilowatthours (kWh) of electricity per year (https://eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/electricity-use-in-ho...) and there are 132 million households in the US (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH).

It could also power the entirety of France and Italy COMBINED, since the average electricity consumption in France is 2 223 kWh per person per year (https://particuliers.engie.fr/electricite/conseils-electricite/cons...), the scale is almost too unfathomable to believe.

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1946854532043899326

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China’s Li Qiang announces launch of Tibet mega dam project that has worried India
Premier Li Qiang attends groundbreaking ceremony for Yarlung Tsangpo dam on Tibetan Plateau with projected 300 billion kWh annual capacity( and store 40 million acre-feet of water). 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3318875/chinas-li...

Meredith Chen
Published: 10:41pm, 19 Jul 2025Updated: 10:47pm, 19 Jul 2025
Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Saturday announced the launch of a mega dam project on the Tibetan Plateau, in what is expected to be the world’s largest hydroelectric facility.

The massive project, located in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, has raised concerns about water supply and environmental impact downstream in India and Bangladesh.
Li attended the dam’s groundbreaking ceremony in Nyingchi, a southeastern city in the Tibet autonomous region, state news agency Xinhua reported on Saturday.




The Yarlung Tsangpo becomes the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet and flows south into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states, and finally into Bangladesh.

Beijing first announced plans for the dam in 2020 under its five-year plan, as part of a broader strategy to exploit the hydropower potential of the Tibetan Plateau. The plan was approved last December.

The project is said to be the largest of its kind in the world, with an estimated annual capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity – three times that of the Three Gorges Dam.
However, it has raised concerns in India and Bangladesh about the impact on their water and food security. There are also worries about population displacement and major environmental disruption, as well as potential weaponisation of water by China, which could use the dam to cause floods or induce droughts.

China asserts that the project has undergone rigorous scientific evaluation and will not adversely affect the ecological environment, geological stability, or water resource rights of downstream countries. Beijing has also emphasised that it will not try to benefit at the “expense of its neighbours”.
Rather, the project could help in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts, and support climate change adaptation in downstream regions, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

The dam has reportedly prompted India to speed up its own hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh to assert water resource rights.

India maintains that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of its territory, while China claims it as part of southern Tibet and has objected to other Indian infrastructure projects there.

The mega project in Tibet will have five cascade hydropower stations, with a total investment estimated at around 1.2 trillion yuan (US$167 billion), the Xinhua report said.

[Riaz Haq]

Tejasswi Prakash
@Tiju0Prakash
Modi government’s reckless suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has backfired, China has now begun construction on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) project.

By breaking international norms, Modi handed upper riparian states like China a perfect excuse to do the same.

This isn’t strategy, it’s self-sabotage. India’s water security is now at serious risk.
#OperationSindoor

https://x.com/Tiju0Prakash/status/1946948939434934573

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Dr. Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
The Assam chief minister’s comments on China’s super-dam project are not just ill-informed — they exemplify the dangerous distortions that foster complacency in India. https://moneycontrol.com/news/india/no-immediate-cause-for-worry-ov...

A river’s perennial flow is sustained by mountain springs, upland wetlands or peat bogs, glacial melt, and perennial tributaries. In the case of the Brahmaputra, these enduring water sources lie more in Tibet than in India. Within India, it is the intense monsoonal rains that swell the river seasonally.

China’s super-dam will disrupt the Brahmaputra’s natural flow of nutrient-rich sediment from the Himalayas — a lifeline for the river’s ecological health. Depriving the river of this sediment will erode riverbeds, destabilize banks, degrade natural habitats, and shrink the delta and estuaries, rendering them more vulnerable to sea-level rise.

The super-dam will also disrupt the Brahmaputra’s natural flooding cycle, which sustains fisheries and rejuvenates overworked soils. Without the seasonal delivery of silt, the floodplains of Assam and Bangladesh will lose their natural fertility.

https://x.com/Chellaney/status/1947316820349719007

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Dawn.com
@dawn_com
India's Arunachal Pradesh chief minister says that the project, barely 50km from the border, can dry out 80pc of the river in the state while potentially inundating downstream areas in Arunachal and neighbouring Assam state.

https://x.com/dawn_com/status/1947276507476267313

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Jayant Bhandari
@JayantBhandari5
Modi said he would shut off river water flow to Pakistan. He has no mechanism to implement this. Now, China is building a dam upstream of one of the most important Indian rivers. India sets itself up for mind-boggling embarrassment and humiliation.

https://x.com/JayantBhandari5/status/1947227265164574879