US-India Ties: Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy?

[Riaz Haq]

Since the dawn of the 21st century, the US strategy has been to woo India and to build it up as a counterweight to rising China in the Indo-Pacific region. Most beltway analysts agree with this policy. However, the current Trump administration has taken significant actions, such as the imposition of 50% tariffs on India's exports to the US, that appear to defy this conventional wisdom widely shared in the West. Does President Trump have a grand strategy guiding these actions?  George Friedman, the founder of Geopolitical Futures, believes the answer is Yes. 

George Friedman

George Friedman is an American futurologist, political scientist, and writer. He writes about international relations. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of the publishing company Stratfor

In a recent podcast, Friedman said "India is not an essential country from the American standpoint". "They (Indians) are a useful ally, but precisely not indispensable and in fact, not really able to give us what we want", he added. "They do participate in the quad, but their naval force is not significantly needed. The quad being an alliance basically against China at sea. And simultaneously, it was discovered that their economic capacity is far below what we need. So it was not that they were dispensable, but at the same time, it was not something that we had to take into account greatly". 

Getting tough with the Indians also allowed the US to "signal to the Chinese that we’re not going to be going to war with them, which they worried about India and to the Russians that we really are going to impose tariffs". 

In answer to a question as to whether the Indians might feel the US is using them as "a tool as it tries to reach deals with Russia and China", Friedman said: "this is the problem of weaker nations trying to play games with very strong nations. They get used". 

What Friedman has articulated runs counter to a quarter century of the US policy of boosting India to check China. Even some of India's friends in Washington are starting to acknowledge that India is no match to China. Ashley Tellis, a strongly pro-India analyst in the United States, recently wrote an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine titled "India's Great Power Delusions". Here is an excerpt from it:

"Although India has grown in economic strength over the last two decades, it is not growing fast enough to balance China, let alone the United States, even in the long term. It will become a great power, in terms of relative GDP, by midcentury, but not a superpower. In military terms, it is the most significant conventional power in South Asia, but here, too, its advantages over its local rival are not enormous: in fighting in May, Pakistan used Chinese-supplied defense systems to shoot down Indian aircraft. With China on one side and an adversarial Pakistan on the other, India must always fear the prospect of an unpalatable two-front war. Meanwhile, at home, the country is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well". 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Indian Military Begins to Accept its Losses Against Pakistan

How Long Can Modi Escape Accountability For Murder? 

Modi-Trump Bromance Over

US Government Brackets Modi With Murderous Dictators

Asley Tellis Wants the US to Continue its Policy of Strategic Altru...

Is the US Young and Barbaric?

India's Ex Spooks Blame Kulbhushan Jadhav For Getting Caught

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Mohan Lal Bhaskar: An Indian Raw Agent in Pakistan

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

 

PakAlumni Social Network

[Riaz Haq]

Congress Kerala
@INCKerala
Our trade with China:

Exports: $14.25B
Imports: $113.5B
Deficit: $99.25B

Our trade with Russia:

Exports: $4.88B
Imports: $67.15B
Deficit: $62.27B

Our trade with US:

Exports: $86.50B
Imports: $38.99B
Surplus: $47.51B

What this news tells us that even after 11 years and Modi meeting Xi Jinping more than 20 times, we still don't have access to Chinese market. We are running nearly half of our deficit with China. The recent visit means that China will have more unbridled access to the Indian market.

And Modi-Trump ego clash is killing our US market access too. Where are we really headed? What will our farmers do? What will our industries do?

https://x.com/INCKerala/status/1964175320342528441