EU-India Trade Deal: "Uncapped" Mass Migration of Indians?

by Riaz Haq

Jan 28

The European Union (EU) and India have recently agreed to a trade deal which includes an MOU to allow “an uncapped mobility for Indian students”, according to officials, allowing Indians greater ease to travel, study and work across EU states. India's largest and most valuable export to the world is its people who last year sent $135 billion in remittances to their home country. Going by the numbers, the Indian economy is a tiny fraction of the European Union economy. Indians make up 17.8% of the world population but contribute only 3.3% of the global GDP. The European Union, on the other hand, has just 5.6% of the global population and produces 17.8% of the world's economic output. 

Indian Economy Dwarfed by EU. Source: DW

If finally signed and implemented, this "uncapped mobility" for Indians will probably become the most significant part of the deal.  “More than 800,000 Indians are living and actively contributing to the countries of the European Union", according to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The two sides welcomed the conclusion of the India‑EU Comprehensive Framework of Cooperation on Mobility, in line with the national competences of EU Member States and India and domestic legislation of both parties. They applauded the launch of the first pilot European Legal Gateway Office, as a one‑stop hub to provide information and support the movement of workers, starting with the ICT sector. 

Indians are currently the seventh-largest migrant group in Germany. Just the talk of "uncapped mobility" from India will trigger a backlash across Europe where far-right parties opposed to all immigration are gaining popularity. There have been high-profile hate incidents against Indians in several European countries recently.  While the rise of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) has increased hatred against Indian migrants, the arrival of the far-right in the mainstream political system in Germany has also started a conversation on racism that otherwise would have been swept under the rug. 

EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi

Undaunted by the anti-immigrant sentiments, the Indian government has quietly signed labor mobility agreements with at least 20 countries over the past half-dozen years — in Europe and Asia, including the Persian Gulf — all with developed economies and most without much history of hiring Indian workers, according to the New York Times.  Arnab Bhattacharya, the chief executive of the "Global Access to Talent From India Foundation" think tank, estimates that India could double its current export of 700,000 workers a year to 1.5 million by 2030. His country, he told the NY Times, “has a workforce that should be servicing the world and not just India.” Their real aim is to deal with the ongoing unemployment crisis in India. 

EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi

Indian economy is not generating enough jobs for the nation's growing working age population. Corporate profits of Indian firms are growing at a much slower pace than the 8.2% GDP growth in its most recent quarter. Net income for Nifty 50 Index firms likely rose 1.1% in the three months through Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest pace in five quarters, weighed down by deteriorating margins for banks. Falling profits and declining currency are causing foreign capital to flee Indian markets. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out over $20 billion from Indian equities in 2025, marking a severe, sustained withdrawal that has continued into 2026.  Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has seen consecutive monthly outflows, including $1.67 billion in October and $446 million in November 2025. Investment banker Ruchir Sharma wrote about it in a Financial Times op ed titled "India needs to import more capital and export fewer workers". Ruchir wrote: "Most strikingly, corporate revenue normally grows (or shrinks) with the economy — in any country. But last year corporate revenue growth for listed companies in India decelerated to barely half the GDP growth rate"

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  • Riaz Haq

     Pakistan steps up EU trade engagement as India deal raises export fears

    • Deputy PM chairs inter-ministerial meeting, calls GSP+ “crucial” for growth
    • Move follows India–EU trade pact that industry warns could hit exports, jobs

    ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar on Friday chaired a high-level inter-ministerial meeting to review and strengthen trade and economic relations with the European Union, as Islamabad scrambles to safeguard market access following India’s new trade deal with the bloc.

    The meeting is part of a broader diplomatic and policy push this week after India and the EU confirmed a free trade agreement granting Indian exporters sweeping tariff-free access to Europe — a development Pakistani exporters and analysts warn could erode Pakistan’s competitiveness, particularly in textiles, its largest export sector.

    The EU is Pakistan’s second-largest export market, accounting for about $9 billion in annual shipments, mostly textiles and apparel. Industry leaders have warned that India’s tariff-free access could undercut Pakistan’s long-standing advantage under the EU’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+), which allows duty-free access in return for commitments on labor rights, human rights and governance.

    At Friday’s meeting, Dar emphasized the centrality of GSP+ to Pakistan’s trade strategy with Europe.

    “He emphasized that GSP Plus remains a crucial framework for mutually beneficial trade and underlined the need to maximize its potential for Pakistan’s economic growth,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.

    Dar also stressed the importance of enhancing trade cooperation with the EU and exploring new avenues for economic engagement, as Pakistan assesses how to respond to shifting trade dynamics in Europe.

    The inter-ministerial huddle follows a series of rapid consultations this week, including a meeting between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the EU’s ambassador to Pakistan, as well as briefings by trade bodies to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on the potential impact of the India–EU agreement. 

    Exporters have warned that unless Pakistan lowers production costs, particularly energy tariffs, and secures continued preferential access, the country could face declining market share in Europe and job losses across its labor-intensive textile sector.

    Pakistan’s Foreign Office has said Islamabad is aware of the India–EU agreement and continues to view its trade relationship with the EU as mutually beneficial, but officials acknowledge that the new deal has intensified pressure to defend Pakistan’s position within the bloc.

    Jan 30

  • Riaz Haq

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    United States Trade Representative

    @USTradeRep
    India will lower tariffs on a wide array of U.S. industrial and agricultural goods to 0%.

    President Trump’s historic deal with India delivers unprecedented market access for American farmers and producers.

    https://x.com/USTradeRep/status/2018709394054144155?s=20

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    Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳
    @zhao_dashuai
    The US-Indian trade deal is a total Modi capitulation.

    I see some indians celebrating the trade deal, because India gets 18% tariff, lower than countries they see as competitors.

    But the problem is, Modi got the 18% by promising to have 0% tariff on major import items from the US, like agriculture products, energy and manufactured goods.

    Modi also threw Russia under the bus by promising not to buy Russian oil.

    So all US had to do for total India to surrender was to impose high tariffs, then drop the newly imposed tariff. In return, India changes their decade long trade policies.😂

    This is the true nature of indians, they can spin any defeat into a victory on social media and on the news.

    https://x.com/zhao_dashuai/status/2018685907155800365?s=20

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    Post

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    Sincere Dibya
    @TheSincereDude
    🚨 REALITY CHECK: Modi calls 18% tariff a “victory”,
    But here’s what he’s NOT telling you:

    1️⃣ Trump STARTED at 25%, went to 50% to bully us, then reduced to 18%; classic negotiation trap. We’re celebrating our own surrender.

    2️⃣ India GAVE UP Russian oil; our cheapest energy source that saved billions for ordinary Indians. Who benefits? American oil companies.

    3️⃣ We’ve committed to buy $500 BILLION of US goods; energy, coal, tech, agriculture. That’s not partnership, that’s colonial tribute.

    4️⃣ Even at 18%, we’re taxed HIGHER than Vietnam (20% before, now similar), Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia (all 19%); so much for “special partnership.”

    5️⃣ India’s average tariff is 17%, US is 3.3%. “Reciprocal” would mean they charge us 17%, not 18%+. Trump is charging us MORE than our own rate.

    This isn’t diplomacy. It’s transactional humiliation dressed up as friendship.

    Modi sold India’s strategic autonomy and energy security for a photo-op with Trump.

    The 1.4 billion Indians deserve leaders who negotiate FROM strength, not ON their knees.

    https://x.com/TheSincereDude/status/2018514396067357034?s=20

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    Post

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    Ajay Kamath
    @ajay43
    18% for us, ZERO for them. Awesomeness! What a deal! 🙄🙄🙄 No Russian oil, buy all American…. the good news just doesn’t stop. For them!!!

    https://x.com/ajay43/status/2018393098393727160?s=20

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    Manish Singh
    @ManishNifty
    JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇳 India agrees to reduce tariffs on the United States to 0% and will stop buying Russian oil.

    In return, the US will reduce tariffs from 25% to 18%

    Wondering who is on the losing side in this deal

    https://x.com/ManishNifty/status/2018372537995129127?s=20

    on Tuesday

  • Riaz Haq

    The DeshBhakt 🇮🇳
    @TheDeshBhakt
    In the last few hours - every Trump administration official has given a more information about the #usindiatradedeal than the Modi Govt did in the last 24 hours (& now we know why)
    Turns out that the Govt was celebrating without divulging all the details of the 'deal' - that include
    🚨 India purchasing $500 BILLION worth of American goods
    🚨 Opening up our protected agricultural sector for American products
    🚨 Lowering tariffs on almost all US imports to ZERO (while still facing an 18% tariff on the American side)
    🚨 Buying oil (or not) from where American decides for us.
    Unless the entire US Govt is lying through its teeth - the alleged Dhurandhar has done surrender.
    Watch New Ep. - https://youtu.be/0_u0ZNxRnX0

    https://x.com/TheDeshBhakt/status/2018769618186424780?s=20

    yesterday