....this time, both countries deployed types of weapons they haven’t used against each other before, such as drones and loitering munitions in large numbers, making the outcome more unpredictable.

Technological changes on the battlefield are changing the way in which conflicts precipitate, said Harsh Pant, a visiting professor at the King’s College India Institute and vice president of the foreign policy program at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/india-and-pakistan-step-up-attacks-...

The recent battle between Pakistani and Indian forces ended in an unambiguous victory for Pakistan.

By Brandon J. Weichert

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-chinese-missiles-routed-...

China’s PL-15 is an active radar-guided, long-range air-to-air missile. Designed by the Luoyang-based China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA), it serves as a beyond-visual-range (BVR), weapon for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), People’s Liberation Army Naval Air Force, and the Pakistani Air Force.

First test-fired in 2011, China’s PL-15 was first spotted in 2013 mounted on a Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon” fifth-generation warplane. The missile entered service between 2015 and 2017. Within the Pakistan Air Force, the PL-15 is equipped on their Chinese-produced JF-17 Block III warplanes, as well as the J-10CE fighters—the class of warplane that, according to initial reports, shot down all those IAF birds.

The PL-15 is designed to engage high-value targets like airborne early warning and control aircraft, tankers, and fighters at extended ranges, replacing the older PL-12 missile as the standard BVR missile for Chinese and Pakistani forces. The missile employs a dual-use solid-fuel rocket motor, though its export variant, the PL-15E—likely used in the dogfight on Wednesday—uses a slightly different propellant or motor. Some sources argue that the PL-15s can achieve speeds of up to Mach 5, though this is unconfirmed.

Most analysts believe that the Chinese domestic PL-15 model is equivalent to the Anglo-French MBDA Meteor missile. It is also meant to compete against the U.S.-made AIM-120D AMRAAM. In fact, China’s creation of the PL-15 likely prompted the U.S. military to create the AIM-260 and the AIM-174B to counter it.





These missiles feature hybrid guidance systems, including the Inertial Navigation System (INS) along with a mid-course two-way datalink for updates from the launching aircraft or airborne command and control planes. There is an onboard active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar seeker with active and passive modes for terminal homing, offering high precision and resistance to countermeasures.

Folding fins designed for an internal carriage in stealth aircraft, such as the J-20, are one of the defining features of this missile. The PL-15E variant has folding rear fins to increase internal payload capacity; this gives it a reduced range compared to its domestic PL-15 Chinese cousin.

Pakistan Won Using China’s Defense Technology
Nevertheless, the Pakistanis have deployed this system with lethal impact in their growing conflict with India. Their successful engagement downing five IAF warplanes is a tremendous blow to the IAF, as well as to India’s military. While any military engaging in a near-peer conflict can expect large numbers of its airplanes to be damaged or destroyed, the fact of the matter is that the Pakistanis were not supposed to be this effective.

It is still the earliest phase of the conflict, and further clashes are likely. India, at least on paper, has many advantages over their Pakistani neighbors. But the successful attacks by the Pakistani planes indicate that Islamabad is playing for keeps. What’s more, it is a warning to the Americans that Chinese missile technology should not be underestimated—especially as the Americans and Chinese circle each other for a future battle over Taiwan.

CNN's Nic Robertson’s Report on how India-Pakistan Ceasefire came about.

https://x.com/NicRobertsonCNN/status/1921252637451641018

https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/smer/date/2025-05-10/segment/01

SMERCONISH: Nic, what's the latest?

[09:05:00] NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLAMATIC EDITOR: Yes, I was just talking to a source who was literally in the room where it happened, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio, I was told, played a massive role in bringing about this ceasefire, a ceasefire that multiple times today and even yesterday, because it was in the works yesterday, perhaps over the last 48 hours, as we've been reporting, Pakistan was sort of on a military pause to give a window for diplomacy.

What I understand from this source is that was blown out of the window early this morning when India attacked three air bases, one of them here in the capital, just on the outskirts of the capital, that, according to the source, Pakistan responded with a relentless, a massive barrage of missiles and rockets, they say, Pakistan says, into Indian military facilities, bases inside India, air bases, weapons storage, and along that disputed line of control in Kashmir against military bases there. They say that, this from the Pakistan perspective, their communications, how they were communicating with Secretary Rubio, that that really put India on the back foot. It didn't know what had happened. India, according to Pakistan, reached out to Secretary Rubio, reached out to the Saudis, reached out to the Turks, reached out to others to find a diplomatic off ramp, got engaged after that onslaught in diplomacy, but telling the mediators that they were going to go on a pause on the Indian side. And then, according to Pakistan, that didn't happen. There was another exchange of rocket fire that happened several times during the day today.

And it was only in the last couple of hours before this ceasefire came into effect, just about an hour or so ago, that there was enough of a pause to call it and say that this was real, that enough diplomacy and leverage have been put on both sides to get them to stop here. Now, the key issue for Pakistan going forward is water. India has still said it's cut off the water from those three vital rivers, from the mountains in Kashmir, vital to Pakistan, existential to Pakistan.

I said, what about that? And the source said, look, this is a ceasefire. Everything works out from that. But from the Pakistan perspective, they've been up all night. From the Indian perspective, they've been up all night.

There was a lot of tiredness. There was a sense that they just wanted to get this done. Otherwise, in the words of this source, it would have just spiraled into something much worse. It was now or never, if you will. It was going to get a whole lot worse.

So I think a sense of relief here, but a sense of whiplash, too, for what the country has been through in the past few days.

SMERCONISH: Nic Robertson, thank you for the report from Islamabad.

Rafale failed in Sindoor! Rethink this French option for MFA | Security Wise

By Bharat Karnad, Indian Defense Analyst


https://bharatkarnad.com/2025/05/10/rafale-proved-crappy-in-sindoor...


The usual, unsatisfactory, inconclusive end to Sindoor. And that too inside of three days of start of military operations! What is equally surprising is how quickly we accepted US mediation, unless the entire Op Sindoor was planned on the basis that after a few days of slinging things around in which the Indian military would be permitted to do as much damage to the Pakistan military as possible, the US would step in with the arm twister of IMF credit of $1.3 billion, to bring Islamabad in line.

-----

In the main, Sindoor revealed the Indian Air Force’s flawed assessment of technology and trends. Its showboat Rafale combat aircraft came a cropper. Based on news stories in CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/09/china/china-military-tech-pakist...), Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-do...) and The Telegraph of London (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/9caaf214c46509a7), featuring Pakistani claims and US sources supporting such claims (of as many as 5 IAF aircraft downed — 2 Rafales, 1 Su-30, 2 Mirage 2000s) , Captain Jawahar Bhagwat, former commander of INS Chakra, SSN, sent in his take on the IAF-PAF tussle in Sindoor which is worth quoting (as he sent it, almost in blank verse!):

“Saab Erieye AWACS patrolling silently
J-10C fighters flying in passive mode
PL-15E missiles—the export PL-15E, the domestic variant with over 300 km reach and Mach 5 speed—locked in and fired
The Rafale didn’t even know it was targeted until the missile was 50 km away. At that speed, the Indian pilot had 9 seconds. Not enough to react. Not enough to survive.”

The IAF presence over J&K was sparse in 2 of the 3 days. Why?

“Because every time a fighter lifts off, Pakistani radars pick it up.
Because the Erieye sees what Indian radars can’t.
Because the PL-15 launches from outside Rafale’s threat envelope.
Because the Rafale, once India’s silver bullet, has been turned into a $250 million sitting duck.The IAF now flies 300 km behind its own borders.”

And, as Captain Bhagwat correctly noted while a spendthrift IAF invested in prohibitively priced weapons platforms, like the Rafale, the PAF invested in the “kill chain” inclusive of a few J-10Cs, Saab AWACS and mostly long range A2A ordnance. Recall how the Rafale was ballyhooed by Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, CAS at the time of the failed 2019 Balakot strike who, not too long ago rued the fact that he did not have the Rafale for that action.

Nur khan base attack prompted US intervention: NYT

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2544711/indian-attack-on-nur-khan-base...


Without disclosing the nature of the intelligence, citing its sensitivity, the CNN reportstated that a core group of senior US officials, including Vice President Vance, Secretary of State and interim National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, had been closely monitoring the situation.

However, the most alarming development came late on May 9, when explosions struck Nur Khan Airbase, located in Rawalpindi. The base serves as a key transport and refuelling hub for the Pakistan Air Force and lies just kilometres away from the Strategic Plans Division – the command overseeing Pakistan’s estimated 170 nuclear warheads.

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Vance called Indian prime minister to encourage ceasefire talks after receiving alarming intelligence, sources say

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/10/politics/vance-modi-india-pakist...

A core group of top US officials — including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and interim national security adviser Marco Rubio, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles — had been closely monitoring the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan when on Friday morning, the US received alarming intelligence, Trump administration officials told CNN. While they declined to describe the nature of the information, citing its sensitivity, they said it was critical in persuading the three officials that the US should increase its involvement.

Vance himself would call Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The vice president briefed President Donald Trump on the plan, then spoke with Modi at noon ET on Friday, making clear to the Indian prime minister that the White House believed there was a high probability for dramatic escalation as the conflict went into the weekend, the administration officials said. Vance encouraged Modi to have his country communicate with Pakistan directly and to consider options for de-escalation, the officials said. The behind-the-scenes details of the US involvement have not previously been reported.

At that point, the officials said, the US believed the nuclear-armed neighbors were not talking, and it needed to get them back to the bargaining table. Vance also outlined to Modi a potential off-ramp that the US understood the Pakistanis would be amenable to, the officials said, though they did not offer details.

Following the call, State Department officials, including Rubio, began working the phones with their counterparts in India and Pakistan through the night, the sources said.

Rubio had been calling people in the region beginning Tuesday with a general idea of how to reach a ceasefire, but the administration left the finer details of the agreement for India and Pakistan to work out directly.

Derek J. Grossman
@DerekJGrossman
Things went very wrong when India struck Pakistan's Nur Khan air base the other day. Whether wittingly or not, Indian forces threatened nearby Pakistani nuclear C2. Hard to exaggerate just how dangerous situation had become prior to US-brokered ceasefire.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/us/politics/trump-india-pakistan...

https://x.com/DerekJGrossman/status/1921644298564456731


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Shashank Joshi
@shashj
It’s worth recalling the four nuclear red lines that were articulated by the head of Pakistan’s nuclear forces in 2002 (see below). In theory, Indian forces didn’t breach any of them last week. Whatever damage was done, it certainly wasn’t a “large part” of Pakistan’s air or ground forces. There was no territorial conquest & it seems unlikely India intended that.

In practice, judging by early reports (CNN, NYT, NDTV) it seems some Indian strikes near nuclear-related facilities might have been seen by Pakistan as threatening the survivability of its nuclear arsenal- or at least that’s what Pakistan wanted to project to India and to the United States (and perhaps now to others such as China).

One possible lesson for India is that you can conduct major strikes against Pakistani military bases without triggering nuclear use- implying we are more likely to see this in the next crisis. The view is that this crisis has re-opened conventional military options that might have been seen as closed after nuclear tests in 1998. (The Pakistani view is that they have matched India on each rung of the escalation ladder; the Indian view is that Indian strikes were more effective and impactful than Pakistani ones, which they claim were largely intercepted).

The other possible lesson is that these strikes can quickly take you closer to the real or perceived nuclear threshold, triggering external intervention that constrains the military campaign. Escalation in the next crisis then depends on whether India believes these nuclear signals (an open question, whatever people will say in the immediate aftermath of the crisis) and what leverage outsiders can bring to bear.

It’s also possible nuclear signals didn’t play a big role at all- that each side was in any case ready to halt the campaign, with expanding strikes bringing diminishing returns & each country able to point to certain tangible successes on different dimensions. A lot of uncertainty all round, and it’ll take longer to sift through the chronology and make sense of events.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1921514597594370061

Electronic Warfare and Control of Electromagnetic Spectrum

From Google Search


Electronic Warfare (EW) leverages the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) for both offensive and defensive actions, aiming to control or disrupt an adversary's use of electromagnetic signals. EW encompasses electronic attack, electronic protection, and electronic support. The spectrum is a critical resource for military operations, enabling communication, navigation, and sensing, and EW aims to protect and maintain access to it while denying it to the enemy.
Here's a more detailed look at the role of the electromagnetic spectrum in electronic warfare:
1. The Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS):
The EMS is a continuous range of electromagnetic radiation, including radio waves, microwaves, infrared, visible light, ultraviolet, x-rays, and gamma rays.
It's a fundamental resource for military operations, used for communication, navigation, radar, and other critical functions.
2. Electronic Warfare (EW):
EW is any military action involving the use of electromagnetic and directed energy to control the EMS, or to attack the enemy.
It aims to protect friendly forces from the adverse effects of electromagnetic interference while simultaneously denying or degrading the enemy's use of the spectrum.
EW is divided into three main areas:
Electronic Attack (EA):Disrupting, denying, degrading, or destroying an adversary's use of the spectrum.
Electronic Protection (EP):Protecting friendly assets from the effects of enemy EW activities.
Electronic Support (ES):Sensing and monitoring the electromagnetic environment to gain information about enemy signals.
3. EW and the Electromagnetic Spectrum:
EW uses the EMS to:
Control the spectrum: Denying it to the enemy while ensuring friendly access.
Attack the enemy: Disrupting or destroying enemy communication, radar, and other systems.
Protect friendly assets: Using countermeasures to mitigate the effects of enemy EW attacks.
Examples of EW using the EMS:
Jamming: Overriding or interfering with enemy signals to disrupt their communication or radar systems.
Deception: Sending false signals to mislead the enemy.
Anti-radiation missiles:Targeting enemy radar systems.
Electronic protection systems:Using countermeasures to protect friendly assets from enemy EW attacks.
4. Importance of Spectrum Superiority:
Achieving and maintaining spectrum superiority is crucial for military success.
It enables control over communication, navigation, sensing, and other critical functions.
Denying the enemy access to the spectrum limits their ability to operate and command their forces.

Pakistan Military’s Multi Domain Operations

From Google Search:

Pakistan's military employs multi-domain operations (MDO), a concept that involves integrating activities across land, air, sea, space, and cyber domains to achieve strategic goals. This approach is particularly relevant in countering terrorism and other asymmetric threats.
Key Aspects of Pakistan's MDO:
Integration:
MDO emphasizes the coordination and synchronization of activities across different military services, including the Pakistan Army, Pakistan Air Force, and Pakistan Navy, as well as paramilitary and special forces.
Jointness:
MDO requires joint planning, training, and execution of operations to ensure seamless integration and interoperability among different services.
Leveraging Technology:
Pakistan's MDO efforts incorporate advanced technology, including ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capabilities, precision-guided strikes, and cyber warfare.
Operational Examples:
Pakistan's Operation Zarb-e-Azb and Operation Azm-e-Istehkam demonstrate the practical application of MDO in countering terrorism and militancy.
Challenges and Considerations:
Balancing MDO with Existing Structures:
Implementing MDO requires adjustments to existing organizational structures and a shift in mindset to prioritize jointness and integration.
Developing Capabilities:
Pakistan needs to further develop its capabilities in areas like cyber warfare, space-based operations, and advanced communication networks to fully realize the potential of MDO.
Adapting to Evolving Threats:
The security environment is constantly evolving, requiring Pakistan to adapt its MDO strategies and capabilities to address emerging threats.
In essence, Pakistan's MDO approach aims to enhance its military's ability to operate effectively across multiple domains, leverage technology, and coordinate its forces to achieve strategic objectives, particularly in the context of countering terrorism and other asymmetric threats.

Beijing's equipment gains battlefield recognition as Pakistan air force shoots down rival at 100km

by Thomas Harding, security and policy editor covering Westminster politics and European affairs

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/asia/2025/05/09/india-pakistan...

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At least one of the French-supplied advanced Rafale fighters was destroyed by a hypersonic PL-15 missile fired by the Pakistan Air Force from a distance of more than 100km on Wednesday, it has been reported.

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Another key point, also witnessed in the Russian-Ukraine war, is that electronic warfare is becoming vital to battlefield survival, with the Indian aircraft not apparently equipped with a key radar jammer unlike British and US jets.

China has invested heavily in what experts called “a gold standard” Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar capability, which allows it to miniaturise the system and put it inside a 200kg missile. By comparison Raytheon's Phantomstrike missile is miniaturised at 60kg.

------------


“We've now seen Chinese weapons in action and the big question mark over the Chinese military build-up has been is their stuff actually any good?” said Tim Ripley, editor of the Defence Eye website. “This suggests that it is.”

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Once fired the PL-15E is blasted by a rocket booster to hypersonic speed of Mach 5 (6,200kph) then guided onto target by the J-10C fighter’s radar before, in the closing stages, switching to its own Aesa radar.

It can then hone in with accuracy with a second burst of speed being injected about 10km from target making it extremely difficult to evade.


Radar jammers
However, if the Rafales had been fitted with Aesa, then this would likely have picked up the threat from some distance.

An Aesa radar would have potentially allowed the Rafale to jam the Pakistan fighter and the missile in its closing stages as it allows the jet to create of beam of focused electronic noise.

“It makes it really quick to neutralise a threat from one of these missiles,” said Mr Ripley.

However, even if equipped with Aesa it is questionable whether the Rafale could have dodged the missile, said a leading defence company aviation expert.

While the radar “would help” its defences, missiles such as the PL-15E are so potent that “once you've been locked on by one it's very difficult to get away from the kill zone because those missiles are so quick,” he added.

Furthermore, if the missile detects jamming then it has the ability to quickly jump to another frequency.


French blushes
What is certain is that the Rafale wreckage, found near the Indian city of Bathinda, will be “pored over by the French because they really will want to know what happened,” said Paul Beaver, a military aviation expert.

Further humiliation for the Indians, as well as the French, was that its air force operates a wing of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the warplane’s most advanced version.

The aviation company source called it a “big, big blow to the French” because Rafale had been “touted as a cheap alternative” to the RAF Typhoon and American fighters.

“While pilot training could be part of the problem if you don't have the best equipment, then you are at a disadvantage,” he added.

There is a suggestion that the shoot-downs could be attributed to pilot error although it also proves Pakistan’s aerial combat skills.

“This demonstrates that the Pakistan Air Force is as effective as everyone always thinks it is. It's smaller than India’s but makes up for it in training and motivation,” Mr Beaver said.

----
Distant dogfights
The aerial battle also marks the start of a new era of aerial warfare in which the incident showed the “very interesting development in long range missile snipers,” said Mr Ripley.

“Long range air-to-air combat is now a big trend in aerial warfare,” he added. “On the back of this lots of the air forces will be busy trying to revamp their electronic warfare effectiveness trying to neutralise these missiles. It’s a big growth area.”

Umar Cheema
@UmarCheema1
Lt Gen. P R Shankar. “You’ve actually fought against Chinese equipment - with the people who can handle Chinese equipments better than the Chinese… Between Pakistan and China, I prefer to fight against China. Pakistanis are good at fighting.”

https://x.com/UmarCheema1/status/1921939576488157494

Thomas Keith
@iwasnevrhere_
The war didn’t end. It went dormant, quieted, not concluded. The spectrum remains live. What unfolded was not a border skirmish, but a battlefield simulation, proof that the wars of the past are dead and the wars of the future are already underway. Pakistan did not simply repel aggression. It revealed a doctrine, one rooted not in brute strength, but in signal control, electromagnetic denial, and narrative preemption. This was not a victory of jets over jets, but of latency over presence. What comes next depends on whether Pakistan completes the grid it has begun to shape, a sovereign kill web built not for escalation, but for insulation from escalation. A doctrine that doesn’t respond to attack, but erases the possibility of one ever forming.

To build this, Pakistan must stop thinking in inventory and start thinking in architecture. The first node in this architecture is a platform that doesn’t currently exist in its arsenal: a dedicated airborne electronic attack aircraft. The J-16D, China’s Growler analogue, is not a fighter, it’s an electromagnetic disruption vector. With internal jamming suites, SEAD payloads, and active radar denial pods, it is designed not to engage targets, but to delete them from the engagement sequence altogether. Without such a platform, Pakistan is forced to blind India from the ground up. With it, the grid is severed mid-air. Radar sites go dark. Targeting pods lose lock. S-400 fire control nodes dissolve before they process threat vectors. Air superiority becomes spectrum denial.

But seeing first is even more important than firing first. And in the spectral domain, the ability to see without being seen is absolute power. That is the logic of passive radar, systems like the YLC-29 or Vera-NG that detect aircraft by monitoring their own emissions, without ever transmitting a signal. These systems do not participate in war. They haunt it. Stealth fighters, jamming drones, loitering munitions, all become visible the moment they speak. Passive radar turns India’s own equipment into a liability. It completes the surveillance loop without becoming part of it. Positioned across Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, these passive nodes would allow Pakistan to build a network of silent vision, watching without blinking, tracking without betraying location, and seeing every platform India launches the moment it breathes.

Strategic deterrence doesn’t only come from ISR and electronic denial. It comes from forcing the enemy to think twice. Pakistan must now consider the one platform that renders naval aggression obsolete before it manifests: a hypersonic area-denial missile. A DF-17-style glide vehicle with Mach 5+ terminal velocity doesn’t need to be used. It only needs to be known. The mere presence of such a system, deployed from coastal nodes near Gwadar, Pasni, or even inland from hardened launchers, would force Indian carrier groups to remain hundreds of kilometers away. It shifts strategic calculations. It delays deployments. It creates psychological terrain. Hypersonics are not about escalation. They are about hesitation.

But wars will not be fought by capital ships alone. They will arrive in clouds: drone swarms, loitering munitions, reconnaissance UAVs, soft-kill saturation assets. India is already investing in this volume. Pakistan must answer with intelligence, AI-synchronized swarms that deceive, distract, and degrade. Domestic CH-901-style loitering munitions, or co-developed Turkish KARGU variants, must be built for not just precision strike but system exhaustion. Their job is to drain enemy attention, burn through interceptors, jam channels, and spoof early warning systems. These are not drones. They are narrative distortion fields in flight. They do not win wars with explosions. They win them by being everywhere, until nothing is trusted.

https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/1921994075013841129

Google Search Results “Does Pakistan have access to Chinese high res satellite imagery?”

Yes, Pakistan has access to Chinese high-resolution satellite imagery. One report indicated that Pakistan purchased real-time satellite data from China, including high-definition video, optical, and hyperspectral imagery. This data reportedly includes precise positioning of Indian Army camps across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. Additionally, Pakistan has entered into agreements with China to procure satellite data, like the Jilin-1 satellite data. Another report mentioned that China is actively promoting the use of its BeiDou navigation satellite system, including among foreign militaries, and has signed agreements with countries like Pakistan to encourage their adoption. A 2018 report also mentioned that China launched two remote sensing satellites for Pakistan, potentially to monitor the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and that another space cooperation agreement was signed in 2021 to supply satellite images

India confirms Chinese missiles used by Pakistan in strikes

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/13/india-says-chines...

India has confirmed Pakistan used Chinese-made missiles during the recent cross-border military strikes.

Air Marshal AK Bharti, India’s director general air operations, said Indian forces had intercepted and neutralised a range of hi-tech foreign weapons used by Pakistan, including the Chinese-origin PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile and Turkish Byker YIHA III Kamikaze drones.

“You can see the pieces of it on the screen,” AM Bharti said during a media briefing, pointing to the debris of a PL-15 missile recovered from a field in Hoshiarpur, Punjab, bordering Pakistan in northern India.



Pakistan claims it shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three French-made Rafales.

A French intelligence source told CNN that a Rafale jet had indeed been downed during exchanges of fire.

Delhi sidestepped a question on whether it had lost jets, saying instead that all its pilots were safe.

The PL-15, developed by China’s Aviation Industry Corporation, is designed to strike high-value airborne targets at ranges exceeding 200km.

In public, Beijing has so far struck a diplomatic tone on the crisis between two South Asian neighbours that were brought back from an all-out-war through back-channel talks.

But in private, a Chinese delegation travelled to the Pakistani foreign ministry in the middle of the night to celebrate the success of the missile strikes.

India’s decision to name China in the recent crisis signals growing alarm in New Delhi over deepening military cooperation between the arch rivals.

The Pakistani and Chinese militaries are hosting joint exercises and sharing common weapon platforms.

The Chinese are also sharing their intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities with Pakistan.

Officers are embedded in the military commands of each other’s nations, such as Pakistani officers placed in China’s Central Military Commission and Western Theatre Command at Chengdu, which oversees the operational frontier with India.

The PL-15 missile, which has never before been used in combat, is powered by a dual-pulse motor that propels it to hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach 5.

“Because they are very, very fast, they basically have what you call a ‘no-escape zone’,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology researcher and fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis.

The confirmation comes just days after Pakistan’s army published a YouTube video showcasing its military arsenal, including a Chinese-made JF-17 Block 3 fighter jet, less advanced than the J-10C, equipped with PL-15 missiles. The combination offers “potent punch”, a caption reads.

Analysts believe one of these missiles may have been used to shoot down a Rafale fighter deep inside Indian territory in a long-range “stand-off” engagement in which neither side crossed the

The wreckage of a Rafale was reportedly found near Bathinda in Punjab in northern India.

The apparent involvement of Chinese aircraft in shooting down a Rafale has ricocheted through defence circles – and sent stock in its maker, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, surging by as much as 20 per cent.

Until now, Chinese weaponry had not been field-tested against Western-made systems like the Rafale.

The Indian Air Force operates a fleet of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the most advanced model of the aircraft.

Hu Jixin, the former editor of the Chinese state-owned Global Times, said the battle showed “China’s level of military manufacturing has completely surpassed that of Russia and France”, adding that Taiwan should feel “even more scared”.

Chinese weapons gain credibility after Pakistan-India conflict. source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/success-of-chine...

The shares of China's jet maker, Aviation Industry Corporation of China, soared by more than a fourth after its J-10C, deployed by Pakistan, purportedly shot down five Indian fighters last week, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes.

(May 13): The recent conflict between India and Pakistan is prompting a reassessment of Chinese weapons, challenging long-held perceptions of their inferiority to Western arms and sparking concern in places wary of Beijing.

Pakistan hailed the use of its Chinese J-10Cs to shoot down five Indian fighters, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes. Although the reports haven’t been confirmed, and India hasn’t commented, the jet’s maker saw its market capitalisation soar by over 55 billion yuan (RM32.71 billion), or more than a fourth, by the end of last week.

Hu Xijin, the ex-editor-in-chief of China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, warned on social media that if Pakistan’s successful strikes were true, Taiwan should feel “even more scared”. Beijing sees the self-ruled democracy as its own, and reserves the right to use military force to bring it under control.

Taiwan closely watched the clash between Pakistan and India, according to Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate research fellow at the Institute of National Defence and Security Research, a government-funded military think tank based in Taipei.

“We may need to reassess the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] air combat capabilities, which may be approaching — or even surpassing — the level of US air power deployments in East Asia,” Shu said, adding Washington might want to consider selling more advanced systems to Taiwan.

While President Xi Jinping has been trying to modernise the world’s biggest military by the number of active personnel, the People’s Liberation Army has been mired in scandals. That had raised questions about the combat-readiness of its powerful and secretive Rocket Force, which is responsible for conventional missiles and would play a crucial role in any invasion of Taiwan.

The reported success of J-10Cs, which have had few battle tests and are used to patrol the Taiwan Strait, appears to counter those doubts. It’s still uncertain, however, how they would fare against US fighters such as the F-16, which make up the bulk of Taiwan’s jets and have been combat-proven across decades and militaries.

Another Chinese weapon Pakistan uses will also be coming under intense scrutiny by Beijing’s adversaries. Parts of Chinese air-to-air PL-15 missiles found in India after the reported shoot-downs suggest the weapons, deployed on Pakistan’s J-10C aircraft, proved effective in their first known combat use. With a top speed above Mach 5, the PL-15 is a rival to Western air-to-air missiles.

China is the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter but its customers are mostly developing nations like Pakistan that have limited funds. The latest developments could bolster Beijing’s sales pitch as major economies from Europe to Asia heed President Donald Trump’s call to ramp up defence spending.

“There is a good chance the weapons systems China is able to offer will be even more appealing to potential buyers” especially in the Global South, said James Char, assistant professor of the China Program at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noting the J-10C is not even China’s most advanced jet.

Buying weapons has also become a focus for developing nations, mulling US arms purchases to appease Trump and his demands to reduce American trade imbalances. Several of these countries list China as a top trading partner and could consider hedging bets by acquiring systems from the Asian country, too.

Chinese weapons gain credibility after Pakistan-India conflict. source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/success-of-chine...

The shares of China's jet maker, Aviation Industry Corporation of China, soared by more than a fourth after its J-10C, deployed by Pakistan, purportedly shot down five Indian fighters last week, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes.

(May 13): The recent conflict between India and Pakistan is prompting a reassessment of Chinese weapons, challenging long-held perceptions of their inferiority to Western arms and sparking concern in places wary of Beijing.

Pakistan hailed the use of its Chinese J-10Cs to shoot down five Indian fighters, including French-made Rafale aircraft, last week in response to Indian military strikes. Although the reports haven’t been confirmed, and India hasn’t commented, the jet’s maker saw its market capitalisation soar by over 55 billion yuan (RM32.71 billion), or more than a fourth, by the end of last week.

Hu Xijin, the ex-editor-in-chief of China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, warned on social media that if Pakistan’s successful strikes were true, Taiwan should feel “even more scared”. Beijing sees the self-ruled democracy as its own, and reserves the right to use military force to bring it under control.

Taiwan closely watched the clash between Pakistan and India, according to Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate research fellow at the Institute of National Defence and Security Research, a government-funded military think tank based in Taipei.

“We may need to reassess the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] air combat capabilities, which may be approaching — or even surpassing — the level of US air power deployments in East Asia,” Shu said, adding Washington might want to consider selling more advanced systems to Taiwan.

While President Xi Jinping has been trying to modernise the world’s biggest military by the number of active personnel, the People’s Liberation Army has been mired in scandals. That had raised questions about the combat-readiness of its powerful and secretive Rocket Force, which is responsible for conventional missiles and would play a crucial role in any invasion of Taiwan.

The reported success of J-10Cs, which have had few battle tests and are used to patrol the Taiwan Strait, appears to counter those doubts. It’s still uncertain, however, how they would fare against US fighters such as the F-16, which make up the bulk of Taiwan’s jets and have been combat-proven across decades and militaries.

Another Chinese weapon Pakistan uses will also be coming under intense scrutiny by Beijing’s adversaries. Parts of Chinese air-to-air PL-15 missiles found in India after the reported shoot-downs suggest the weapons, deployed on Pakistan’s J-10C aircraft, proved effective in their first known combat use. With a top speed above Mach 5, the PL-15 is a rival to Western air-to-air missiles.

China is the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter but its customers are mostly developing nations like Pakistan that have limited funds. The latest developments could bolster Beijing’s sales pitch as major economies from Europe to Asia heed President Donald Trump’s call to ramp up defence spending.

“There is a good chance the weapons systems China is able to offer will be even more appealing to potential buyers” especially in the Global South, said James Char, assistant professor of the China Program at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noting the J-10C is not even China’s most advanced jet.

Buying weapons has also become a focus for developing nations, mulling US arms purchases to appease Trump and his demands to reduce American trade imbalances. Several of these countries list China as a top trading partner and could consider hedging bets by acquiring systems from the Asian country, too.

Chinese weapons gain credibility after Pakistan-India conflict. source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/success-of-chine...

China’s overseas arms sales have been growing, with its five-year average weapons exports more than tripling in 2020-2024 from 2000-2004, according to calculations based on data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Chinese government and state-owned enterprises do not disclose data on arms exports.

Some of the largest state-owned players — also blacklisted by the US — include Norinco Group, which makes armoured vehicles and anti-missiles systems; Aviation Industry Corporation of China, whose subsidiary AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co manufactured the J-10Cs; as well as China State Shipbuilding Corp, a producer of frigates and submarines.

M Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, cautioned that the Chinese jet was primarily for aerial combat, while the Rafale was designed to conduct many kinds of missions, meaning the J-10 may have held an advantage.

Chinese weapons exports have been plagued for years by defects, specialists have said, adding that the seemingly inexpensive systems can drain security budgets due to maintenance expenses.

“China attracts customers for its military equipment with cut-rate pricing and financing but there are hidden costs — especially when gear malfunctions,” Cindy Zheng, then a researcher at Rand Corp, wrote in a research paper just before joining the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in the latter stages of the Biden administration.

In 2022, Myanmar had to reportedly ground its fleet of Chinese fighter jets due to structural cracks and other technical issues. Bangladesh lodged complaints with Beijing about the quality of its military hardware last year. Even the Pakistan Navy has been facing issues with its F-22P frigates, forcing them to operate the vessels with significantly degraded capabilities.

“Questions about combat capabilities and other issues, including concerns about interoperability with non-Chinese platforms, have hampered China’s ability to expand exports beyond a handful of countries,” Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior associate analyst Eric Zhu wrote in a note last week.

China’s Defence Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment on the past weapon defects and the J-10C’s recent performance. Beijing regularly says that its military helps maintain global stability and that it prefers to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully.

Xi has been trying to turn China’s defence industry around by bringing together the military and civilian sectors, in an effort to transform the PLA into a modern force by 2027.

That’s led to breakthroughs such as China’s launch in December of its first next-generation amphibious assault ships, considered the world’s largest of its kind. A video of what is believed to be a test flight of the nations’ sixth-generation fighter jet circulated on social media that year, leading to a rally in defence stocks.

But it’s wrong to call the J-10C’s potential success a “DeepSeek moment” for China’s military, said Fravel, referring to the artificial intelligence chat bot that surprised the world earlier this year, noting that the jet’s design wasn’t new.

“But it doesn’t need to be a DeepSeek moment to be significant,” he added. “A lot is being learned about how Chinese systems perform under combat conditions.”

Tejasswi Prakash
@Tiju0Prakash
First Bihar reported the death of an Indian soldier operating the S-400 Air Defence System in J&K, confirming a successful PAF strike on udampur Airbase on 10th May.

Another Modi Ji’s lie exposed. Instead of doing PR at the airbase, he should have visited the home of the martyred soldier. But Modi Ji, you're too much ignoring our own Shaheeds for your image.

The report is likely taken down under BJP pressure, but the nation still demands answers.

https://x.com/Tiju0Prakash/status/1922367646768431544

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Did Modi inadvertently confirm Pakistan’s S-400 claim?
Indian PM’s Adampur photo-op aimed to counter PAF claim but what’s missing raises more questions than answers

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545624/did-modi-inadvertently-confirm...

India’s Prime Minister Modi posed in front of an S-400 missile launcher during a visit to the Adampur airbase on Tuesday, a move Indian media framed as a “fact-check” of Pakistan’s claim that it had neutralised two of the advanced systems during Operation Bunyanum Marsoos.

But the photo-op may have inadvertently lent weight to Pakistan’s assertion — precisely because of what was missing in the image.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), US-based South Asia expert Christopher Clary noted that while there is still no concrete evidence of Pakistani success against the S-400, Pakistan would be “at least as likely if not more likely to target the command centre or the radar than they are the launcher” of the air defence system.

https://x.com/clary_co/status/1922209113334755834

At the May 11 tri-service news briefing, Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmad revealed that the Pakistan Air Force had been tracking the S-400 air defence system via satellite imagery “well before the hostilities.” Explaining that attacking the S-400 system was the “easier part” as compared to “identifying it on the ground”, he presented satellite images that showed the PAF had “pinpointed” the system’s “cheeseboard radar.”

Shortly after The Express Tribune published its story online, NDTV’s Shiv Aroor — who has frequently shared claims from Indian defence sources — posted a photo on X showing him with an S-400 radar unit housed inside a structure.


https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1922254177868066942

However, Aroor shared the same photograph on July 11, 2019 with the post: “With a brand new S-400 Triumf launcher vehicle for the Russian military at the Almaz-Antey facility near St. Petersburg — this is the same facility that will produce 5 systems for India starting next year. Spent the day here today. Detailed report on @Livefist tomorrow.”

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1149303243803168769

The S-400 Triumph, known by NATO as the SA-21 Growler, is a long-range, surface-to-air missile system developed by Russia’s Almaz-Antey.

According to a TRT World Research Centre explainer, the system is designed to detect and destroy aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. A 2021 research paper titled “India’s Acquisition of the S-400 Air Defence System”, published in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, states that each S-400 system includes two batteries.

Each battery comprises a command-and-control unit, one surveillance radar, one engagement radar, and four launch trucks referred to as “transporter–erector–launchers.”

According to TRT World, a full battalion consists of eight launchers, each capable of carrying four missiles. The S-400 has a range of 250 to 400 kilometres, depending on the missile type, and can target objects at altitudes of up to 30 kilometres.

The system primarily uses the 48N6 missile series, which can intercept aerial targets up to 250 kilometres away and ballistic missiles within a 60-kilometer radius.

These missiles are equipped with 143 kg high-explosive warheads. The S-400 is also compatible with the 40N6 missile, a long-range air defence missile with a 400-kilometer reach.

Husain Haqqani
@husainhaqqani
‘Swarm & Strike: How Pakistan’s Drone Superiority ‘Tested’ Indian Defenses & Questioned India’s Very Capable Air Defence Systems.’ Vijainder K. Thakur explains in Eurasian Times how Pakistan may have used Ukraine-like tactics

https://x.com/husainhaqqani/status/1922225449565880686

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Swarm & Strike: How Pakistan’s Drones ‘Tested’ Indian Defenses & Questioned India’s Very Capable AD Systems: OPED

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/swarm-strike-how-pakistans-drone-supe...

The twin operations—India’s Op Sindoor and Pakistan’s response, Bunyaan al-Marsoos—have underlined how modern warfare has pivoted decisively toward drone-centric operations. These include the full spectrum: surveillance, ELINT, communication relay, kamikaze, and armed attack drones.

Painfully, as has happened on numerous occasions in the past, Pakistani forces have again stolen a march over Indian counterparts—this time by inducting a broader spectrum of drones and developing tactics for their optimal utilization.

The massive drone swarm on the night of May 9, 2025, is illustrative.

According to the GoI’s official press briefing, Pakistan launched between 400 and 500 drones in a coordinated reconnaissance and SIGINT operation. These intrusions, some deep into Indian territory, were designed to trigger Indian air defense systems into activating radars and launching interceptors. This allowed Pakistani planners to map Indian AD assets and gather critical electromagnetic data.

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Pakistan used this intelligence on the night of May 10 to jam Indian AD systems and launch cruise missile strikes—possibly targeting even S–400–protected airbases.

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Ceasefire Violations
Pakistan’s drone incursions occurred just hours after a ceasefire, negotiated by both countries, came into effect at 5 PM on May 10.

The timing raises serious questions. The drones were likely launched to confirm the destruction of Indian targets for domestic propaganda purposes.

These intrusions may not be isolated events but the beginning of a phase where Pakistani drone-based airspace violations become routine.

Pakistan Isn’t That Risky Anymore. Its Economy Is a Mini-Miracle. - Barron's

https://www.barrons.com/articles/pakistan-economy-turnaround-257d44e3

For markets like Pakistan, it can take a threat of war to capture the world’s attention. Investors may regret not having looked sooner.

The country of 255 million has pulled off a macroeconomic miracle of sorts over the past two years. Inflation has nosedived from near 40% annually to near zero. Eurobonds maturing in 2031 have soared from 40 cents on the dollar to 80 cents. The Karachi Stock Exchange index has tripled. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government reached a $7 billion stabilization agreement with the International Monetary Fund last September. More than $2 billion has already been disbursed.

“Pakistan is a good story,” says Genna Lozovsky, chief investment officer at Sandglass Capital Management, which buys distressed emerging markets debt. “So good it’s not risky enough for us anymore.”

The latest armed conflict with India, in a tenuous state of truce at press time, won’t likely knock Pakistan’s recovery off course. The country’s own shaky underpinnings might. The latest IMF bailout is its 24 th since joining the Fund in 1950. “Pakistan has been known for boom-and-bust cycles throughout its history,” notes Khaled Sellami, an emerging markets sovereign debt manager at Barings.

He sees some signs that this time could be different. Pakistan’s current bout of stabilization started with a near-default experience in 2022-23. Catastrophic flooding and a spike in oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coincided with domestic political turmoil, as Sharif engineered a no-confidence motion against his predecessor Imran Khan, who was subsequently locked up on corruption charges.

“Everyone thought Pakistan would default along with Sri Lanka in 2023,” says Alison Graham, chief investment officer at frontier markets specialist Voltan Capital Management.

Instead, the State Bank of Pakistan hiked interest rates from 10% to 22%, pitching the country into recession but wringing out inflation. Sharif won a (disputed) election in February 2024, and improved Khan’s rocky relations with Islamabad’s meddlesome military, hopefully securing political stability until the next required poll in 2029.

Pakistan’s sovereign creditors—China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—rolled over their loans without extending new credit. Gross domestic product growth bounced back to 2.5% last year, and the country’s books are uncustomarily balanced. “The current account balance is positive, and they have a primary fiscal surplus [excluding interest payments],” Sellami observes. “That’s something we haven’t seen in many years.”

Stabilization is one thing, though, development another. Pakistan’s IMF program, like all IMF programs, calls for reforms that will be unpopular with powerful interests or the population at large. Islamabad is supposed to increase its tax take by half and slash electricity subsidies, among other uphill battles.

India’s leap forward in advanced industries like IT and pharmaceuticals points up its neighbor’s relative stagnation. Cotton, apparel and cereals account for two-thirds of Pakistan’s exports. It is belatedly moving into IT outsourcing, foreign sales rising from near nothing to $3 billion annually over the past few years, Sellami says. India is in the $200 billion range.

Without a value-added ladder to climb, fate and free-spending election cycles may continue driving Pakistan’s boom and bust, Graham thinks. “Pakistan remains extremely fragile to external shocks,” she says. “When there is a rally, you need to be in early.”

Sellami is more optimistic, remaining “constructive” on Pakistani Eurobonds.

Raza Ahmad Rumi
@Razarumi
As easy as ABC? How Pakistan unified radars, jets and warning aircraft against India | South China Morning Post

Chinese defence industry report says intelligent systems and not firepower superiority are now the deciding factors

https://x.com/Razarumi/status/1922483236237672634

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3310134/easy-abc-ho...

An advanced “ABC” data sharing system made all the difference in Pakistan’s hostilities against Indian forces last week, upending combat conventions, according to a Chinese defence industry newspaper.


In a report on Monday, China Space News said the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) deployed a “locked by A, launched by B, guided by C” combat system, integrating ground radars with fighter jets, and airborne warning aircraft.

Unlike traditional air combat, where a single jet handles detection and missile guidance, Pakistan’s approach shared real-time data.

First, ground systems locked onto targets, then patrol jets launched missiles from safe distances, and finally airborne warning and control systems (Awacs) seamlessly guided the ordnance to its mark, according to the report.

The system was used against the Indian Air Force, which the Pakistani military said last week led to the loss of five Indian aircraft.

China Space News is published by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation – key developers of China’s missile and air defence systems.

This “systemic and asymmetric” tactic highlighted the rise of networked, intelligent warfare over mere firepower superiority, it said.

A few countries – such as the United States and Russia – had moved to the “launched by A, guided by B” model, with one aircraft launching the missile, and another able to take over guidance.

In the recent skirmish, however, the PAF went one step further to add “guided by C”, the report said.

“Ground-based air defence systems lock onto enemy aircraft first. Fighter jets on patrol then receive the data and launch air-to-air missiles at safe distances. Subsequently, Awacs and other aircraft continue to provide tracking and guidance to the missiles until they hit the target,” it said.



“This beyond-visual-range combat ability has a game-changing role in the air combat mode.”



The report did not mention any use of Chinese-made hardware, focusing instead on the PAF’s tactical prowess and India’s failure to unify its data links and combat platforms – which it said could prove fatal in future conflicts.



But Chinese weapons have accounted for more than 80 per cent of Pakistan’s arms imports over the past five years, according to Swedish think tank SIPRI. And some footage of training exercises released by the Pakistani military showed that Pakistan had acquired the HQ-9P air defence missile system and ZDK-03 Awacs from China, in addition to the J-10CE fighter jets and PL-15E missiles credited with bringing down the Indian planes.

India had concentrated on buying equipment rather than integrating systems, the report said, citing Indian statements acknowledging data link compatibility problems between various Awacs, ground radars, and fighter jets, causing delays in threat detection and response.

“In modern air combat, even a one-second delay can be fatal,” the report warned.

Raza Ahmad Rumi
@Razarumi
As easy as ABC? How Pakistan unified radars, jets and warning aircraft against India | South China Morning Post

Chinese defence industry report says intelligent systems and not firepower superiority are now the deciding factors

https://x.com/Razarumi/status/1922483236237672634

-------------------------

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3310134/easy-abc-ho...

Analysts noted that Pakistan’s cost-effective, precision-focused system neutralised India’s numerical air-power advantage.

“If India doesn’t speed up equipment standardisation, data link unification, strengthen training and logistics, it may face more strategic failures in future networked warfare,” the report warned.

It said that analysis of this conflict and others around the world indicated that military confrontations today had evolved from merely exchanging firepower to systemic, intelligent, and asymmetric warfare.



The article also highlighted the potential for integrating drones into such networked combat systems.
“[Drones] can use low-altitude blind spots in air defence networks to gather real-time intelligence or target ground assets like airbases. They can also serve as missile launch platforms, boosting firepower and strike efficiency.”

Pakistan’s use of J-10C jets and missiles exposes potency of Chinese weaponry | Pakistan | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/14/pakistans-use-of-j-10...

Andrew Small, a Berlin-based senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said China gets particular benefit from seeing its weapons used against western equivalents. “It gives them a chance to assess their performance under far more complex and challenging conditions than usual, and with Pakistan this is not just about the fighter jets themselves, it’s about the missiles, the radar systems, and the whole technology spine of the Pakistani military, from electronic warfare capabilities to satellite systems.”

It’s not just western arms that China’s planes are being tested against. India has the support of both China’s biggest rival, the US, and its closest ally, Russia, which supplies 36% of India’s arms imports.

But analysts says it has provided a wake-up call about China’s military capabilities as it threatens to annex Taiwan.

“We may need to reassess the PLA’s air combat capabilities, which may be approaching or even surpassing the level of US air power deployments in east Asia,” Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate research fellow at the Taiwan defence ministry-linked Institute of National Defense and Security Research, told Bloomberg.

Under the rule of Xi Jinping, China’s military has been modernising and expanding, with a goal to be capable of an air and land invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

Hu Xijin, the former editor of the nationalistic Chinese state-linked tabloid Global Times, said the incident showed Taiwan should feel “even more scared”.

Part of China’s contingency planning is an expectation that the US military and potentially others would be involved in defending Taiwan.

Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Center, said the two combat theatres were not directly comparable, as a Taiwan invasion would probably involve more input from the navy, marines and army than this month’s limited conflict between India and Pakistan.



“And technically, India did not use American weapon systems during this round,” Sun said. “But the surprising victory of Chinese J-10 and PL-15 [missiles] will force people to reconsider the military balance of power in the event of a Taiwan contingency.”

The apparent success of the J-10C against the Rafales also boosts China’s reputation as a manufacturer and seller of weapons. While China is the world’s fourth largest arms exporter, more than half goes to Pakistan and the rest is mostly to smaller developed nations. It must work around US sanctions.

The share price of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, which makes the J-10Cs, soared on the news.

Small said Pakistan was often seen as a showcase for Chinese weapons.

“A good performance demonstrates to others the benefits of maintaining a close partnership with Beijing as PLA capabilities advance, especially given the rumours that China provided Pakistan, one of its closest strategic partners, with versions of the PL-15 missiles that have a longer range than the usual export variant,” he said.

Wezeman said the shooting was too limited to draw a lot of firm conclusions about the state of China’s military, which has also been mired in corruption scandals in recent years.

“That said, the clash seems to support a general assessment that Chinese weapons are proving to have become a match for western weapons.”

China’s military and government have neither denied nor celebrated the J-10C claims. The foreign ministry said when asked that it was “not familiar” with the J-10C situation.

But on Tuesday China’s vice-foreign minister Sun Weidong met with Pakistan’s ambassador to China, Khalil Hashmi. “China welcomes and supports Pakistan and India achieving a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire,” a foreign ministry statement said.

“China is ready to continue to play a constructive role in this regard.”

Ex Indian diplomat Bhadrakumar on recent India-Pakistan clashes:

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2025/May/13/operation-sin...

The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership.

Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbours no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life.

Trump’s talks with Hamas and Iran are going well, and he has pacified the Houthis. Even the irascible protagonists in the Ukraine war are currying favour with him. Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are all set to meet on Thursday in Istanbul—a “neutral site”. Beijing is ecstatic that the trade talks in Geneva “will become a new example for China and the US to work hand in hand to inject more stability and positive energy into the world”.

This is the way of the world. We must stop fantasising over newer military doctrines every now and then. Pakistan is a keen observer and adept practitioner. As true as night follows day, Pakistan will soon have a workaround.

--------------

Four days of clashes with Pakistan exposed the faultlines in India’s foreign policy and diplomacy. None of India’s neighbours voiced support for Operation Sindoor; it had a public spat with the European Union; Russia remained largely indifferent, and alongside the Global South, refused to take sides. And after allowing for US mediation, we are now in a sullen mood and denial.

President Donald Trump, in his characteristic way, reacted to our split personality by promising to work with us “to see if, after a ‘thousand years’ (of Hindu-Muslim animosity), a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir”. Trump’s India-Pakistan hyphenation apart, our diplomacy vis-a-vis the US is crumbling. Our ‘middle class’ cannot be happy about it. The paradox is, we are squirming when Trump pays flattering tribute to PM’s “wisdom, and fortitude to fully know and understand that it was time to stop the current aggression”. Indeed, “aggression”—Trump’s choice of word—implied a vehement rejection of the raison d’être of Operation Sindoor.

On Monday, Trump tightened the screws further by disclosing he told India and Pakistan that if they didn’t stop fighting, “there won’t be any trade”. In his words: “We stopped a nuclear conflict. I think it would have been a bad nuclear war. Millions of people would have been killed. I also want to thank VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for their work.”

This unsavoury happening is playing out against the backdrop of the government’s frenetic attempts during the previous 100 days to put India on a path of deeper alignment with the US. The attempts to pamper Trump’s ego, even while stomaching insults, give away unilaterally tangible economic benefits to US companies, get India more integrated with America’s military and tech ecosystems—none of this helped India. Consider the following.

FRANCE 24 English

@France24_en
Chinese weapons pass combat test in India-Pakistan clash – with flying colours https://f24.my/BAZ5.x

https://x.com/France24_en/status/1922695187312279897

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By Leela Jacinto

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20250514-chinese-weapons-p...


In the aftermath of Saturday’s ceasefire, attention has focused on Islamabad’s new range of Chinese weapons and defence systems that finally saw combat during the May 7-10 India-Pakistan armed clash. It came as India’s newly acquired arsenal of mostly Western arms took on China’s increasingly sophisticated military hardware.

‘Big victory for China in terms of perception’
The odds were in New Delhi’s favour ahead of its retaliation for the April 22 terror attack. With its first strikes, India signalled a break from its traditional doctrine of strategic restraint, hitting targets not just in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and remote border regions, but in the country’s political heartland Punjab province.

India’s escalation raised international alarm bells on the second day of clashes, when it hit the Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, a garrison city near Islamabad. Situated just a short distance from the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, which oversees and protects the country’s nuclear arsenal, the Nur Khan base is a key hub for the country’s military.



Another surprise was Pakistan’s robust response to the Indian escalation.

Pakistan’s claim that its J-10 fighter jets brought down India’s French-made Rafales sparked exultation on Chinese social media platform, Weibo, with many users speculating that buyers will probably soon be flocking to Chinese arms manufacturers.

India’s decision to neither confirm nor deny the loss of its top-end fighter jets has added credence to the downing claims. While Rafale manufacturer Dassault Aviation did not respond to FRANCE 24’s request for a comment, Reuters reported that at least one of India’s downed fighters was a Rafale. A Washington Post analysis conducted by three ordnance experts concluded that verified images from the downing site showed the debris was “consistent with at least two French-made fighter jets flown by the Indian air force – a Rafale and a Mirage 2000".

The takeaways of the May 7-10 military engagement for Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington DC-based Stimson Center, are two-fold. “The first one is that the Indian weapons system is not as effective as a lot of people thought they would be,” she noted. “The second takeaway is that the Indian strategic intent could be more ambitious than a lot of people had expected.”

While cautioning that it’s still too early to “jump to conclusions”, Carlotta Rinaudo, a China expert at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona, notes that perception is key in initial assessments. “And this was a big victory for China in terms of perception,” she said, referring to the performance of China’s J-10 jets. “For a country that hasn't fought, theoretically, any war since the war with Vietnam in 1979, for a country that hasn't really engaged in war and its own weapons don't really have that sort of global recognition as, let's say, French weapons or American weapons, this is a big, big victory in terms of perception,” she added.

Not just cheap, but good
India’s image on the global geopolitical stage has been enhanced in recent years with the country emerging as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region. Its recent arms acquisitions made headlines as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a bid to upgrade the country’s ageing mostly Russian-supplied arsenal, signed billion-dollar arms deals with France and the US.

How Pakistan’s Drone Army Won the War Against India - The National Interest

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-pakistans-drone-army-won...


By: Brandon J. Weichert

One side in the India-Pakistan War invested heavily in drone capabilities over the last decade. The other did not.
The night of May 9, 2025, should henceforth be required course material for all Western defense experts. That was the night when the Pakistani military retaliated against their Indian neighbors in what Islamabad has come to call “Operation Bunyaan al-Marsoos,” (derived from the Quran, meaning “a structure firmly joined together”) with a massive drone swarm.

Pakistan’s operation was truly massive, involving the coordination of hundreds of drones. And it demonstrated the importance of the weapons—Turkish drones, to be precise—as much as Islamabad’s effective shooting down of multiple European and Russian-made warplanes demonstrated the effectiveness of Chinese-made, Pakistani-operated warplanesand missiles.

During the drone operation, Pakistan launched an astonishing 400-500 drones that penetrated deep inside Indian territory. The idea was for the drones to trigger India’s air defense systems. Pakistan’s military would then map out those systems, gathering essential data for a future full-scale attack.





And there is evidence to suggest that Pakistan used the information their drones collected on May 9 for a massive jamming operation on May 10. Indeed, while unconfirmed, there are multiple reports indicating that the Pakistanis even targeted the powerful Russian-built S-400 air defenses that India had ringing their airbases.

All the claims made by Pakistan have been denied by India. But that’s just par for the course; Pakistan routinely does the same to India when New Delhi has battlefield successes.



Plus, it remains likely that, should the current ceasefire break down and the war continue, and if the Indians continue escalating on their end, India will enjoy the upper hand over its Pakistani rivals. For now, however, the Pakistanis have deftly used whatever capabilities at their disposal—and a lot of gumption—to stymie India’s offensives.

Drones Are the Future of Warfare
Just as in the Ukraine War and the various iterations of fighting between Iran-backed militants and Israel in the Middle East, one side in the India-Pakistan War—Pakistan, in this case—invested heavily in drone capabilities over the last decade. Specifically, Pakistan purchased drones from Turkey and China, each of which produces high-quality drones at relatively low cost.

Because of their indigenous production capabilities and strong partnerships with China and Turkey, Pakistan has managed to avoid a fate that most everyone assumed would befall them. They did not lose to India. And, as noted above, in key instances, they pushed back hard against the Indians.

India made the mistake, perhaps understandably, of trying to model its military on those of the West. But the Western militaries no longer possess the war-winning formulae they once did. Sure, Western militaries have expensive gadgets. But with countries like China, Russia, and Turkey now rising, having the most expensive systems are no longer viable substitutes for victories.



Even with the Russian example, it should be noted that India relies heavily on Russian military technology. Their Su-30MKIwas among the five planes shot down by Pakistan in the opening phases of the war. Further, the Pakistanis managed to blast the S-400s after jamming them on May 10. Here, too, are lessons U.S. and NATO planners could learn in how best to stymie powerful Russian air defense systems.

Evidence Emerges of S-400 System Components Destroyed in India: Operator’s Obituary Published - Militarnyi


by Roman Pryhodko

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/evidence-emerges-of-s-400-system-com...

Indian media have published an obituary for an operator of the S-400 air defense system component that Pakistan destroyed.

The First Bihar media reported on this.

During repeated strikes between the countries, Pakistan targeted one of the components of the Indian Armed Forces’ S-400 surface-to-air missile system.



According to Indian media, the incident occurred on May 13, 2025, and the deceased was identified as serviceman Rambabu Kumar Singh — a native of the village of Vasilpur, Bihar state.

As the media noted, the serviceman had recently, on April 10, started a new assignment in Jammu and Kashmir and was scheduled to be transferred to Jodhpur. However, he continued his service in that area due to the worsening situation on the border between the countries.

The deceased was an operator of the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which India purchased from Russia. These systems are actively deployed in the border regions between India and Pakistan.

It should be noted that a few days ago, Pakistan Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmad stated during a briefing on targets hit in India that the Pakistani Air Force had succeeded in destroying components of India’s S-400 air defense system during combat operations.



As confirmation of this, the Air Vice Marshal presented satellite images showing that the airbase had been struck in two locations.



For comparison, he also provided satellite images of the same area taken before the start of the conflict.



Meanwhile, India attempted to debunk this information. As part of a working visit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to the Adampur air base to refute the reported strike and appeared in front of one of the S-400 air defense system’s launchers.

In doing so, he arguably confirmed the damage to components of the system more than he denied it. This is because Pakistan had claimed it struck a radar and command post, not a launcher, of which there can be up to 12 units in a single regiment.

In total, India ordered five regimental sets of this system in 2018, for a total cost of approximately $5.5 billion. The first systems began arriving in the country in the fall of 2021.



In the fall of 2024, it was reported that Russia was delaying the delivery of S-400air defense systems to India due to its own needs, specifically, the large number of system components destroyed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Post by Arnaud Bertrand:

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1921600758887399540

Its (India's) strategy of multi-alignment, both with the Global South and the West, is meant to court people on both "sides" but the result - illustrated by the global reaction to the altercation with Pakistan - is much the contrary: everyone sees India as hedging its bets rather than standing on principle, ultimately breeding distrust from all quarters rather than the support it seeks to cultivate.

Let's be real: in the Global South people almost universally see India as the weak link in the BRICS, the country trying to undermine collective South-South cooperation whenever it conflicts with its parallel ambitions of being embraced by Western powers.

India's strong Islamophobia also obviously doesn't help when such a huge proportion of the Global South is Muslim...

And in the West it's much the same story: people look at things like Modi's record at home, its strong ties with Russia, and view India as a player that they don't really identify with.

And on top of that, when it comes to the West there's the fact that India is a) at a very different stage of economic development than they are and b) has a very different culture and historical context.

All this means that there's bound to be a persistent undercurrent of othering in how the West approaches its relationship with India: they tend to see India with a mix of colonial condescension and strategic necessity. And the gap in respective conditions and development status would anyhow prevent India from being fully embraced as a "natural ally" despite superficial diplomatic overtures.

Layered on top of this is the corrosive media environment in India itself and the experience most people have when they interact with many nationalist Indians on social media: to remain polite, one gets the impression that there's an insurmountable gap between how India sees itself on the world stage and how others perceive it.

I'm not going to be paternalistic myself and tell India what it ought to do but one thing is clear: when someone claims 'International Media has turned viciously against Bharat,' they should maybe reflect on whether it isn't the inevitable result of a multi-alignment strategy that has ultimately aligned India with nobody's true interests but its own. And whether the knee-jerk defensive victimhood narrative prevents honest self-reflection about precisely that.

FJ
@Natsecjeff
Yet more evidence that in all likelihood Pakistan did in fact successfully hit the Indian S-400.

Indian journalist Vishnu Som: Pakistan launched two hypersonic missiles from a JF-17 fighter jet to target S-400 base in Adampur. We can confirm that one of the missiles missed the target and we are not sure about the other.

(this would align with what we have heard from Pakistani + independent sources about a single Pakistani missile hitting the S-400 radar and control system)

https://x.com/Natsecjeff/status/1924466726462185628

China reveals tech ‘breakthrough’ behind Pakistan’s hypersonic strike on India | South China Morning Post

By Zhang Tong

Chinese missiles were used by Pakistan to destroy an Indian air defence system last week in what is believed to be their first combat use

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3310320/china-revea...


Chinese state media has hailed what is believed to be the first combat use of the country’s hypersonic missiles, after Pakistan claimed they were used to destroy an Indian S-400 air defence system last week.
Describing it as the dawn of a new era in warfare, official news agency Xinhua reported on Saturday that Pakistan’s air strike had destroyed India’s Russian-built air defence system in Adampur, in the border state of Punjab.


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https://armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts...


The CM-400AKG, a missile developed by China's state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), represents a new generation of precision strike weaponry. Though typically labeled a hypersonic weapon for its Mach 5-plus speed, it more accurately fits the description of a quasi-ballistic missile due to its steep terminal dive attack profile and high-altitude cruise trajectory. The missile is specifically designed to defeat high-value, heavily defended targets such as naval vessels or strategic ground-based air defense systems. This makes it a particularly destabilizing asset in the hands of operators like Pakistan, who are facing adversaries equipped with some of the world’s most advanced defense networks.

The Indian S-400 Triumf, supplied by Russia, is among the most revered air defense missile systems globally. With a detection range of 600 kilometers and the capability to engage aerial targets at up to 400 kilometers, it has been the centerpiece of India's airspace security. It is designed to intercept everything from enemy aircraft and drones to ballistic missiles. Its reputation has made it a system of choice not only for India, but also for nations like China and Turkey, despite the geopolitical complexities surrounding such acquisitions.

If a Chinese missile like the CM-400AKG has indeed neutralized an S-400 system in a real-world combat scenario, the implications are far-reaching. This event would not only mark the operational debut of Chinese hypersonic munitions in conflict, but it would also raise critical concerns among Western military planners. For the United States and NATO members who rely on air defense architectures such as the Patriot, Aegis, or even the THAAD and the forthcoming NGI systems, the notion that a relatively low-cost, air-launched Chinese missile could defeat a flagship Russian defense system is a sobering one.

The effectiveness of the CM-400AKG could signal a broader shift in the global military balance. Hypersonic weapons, by virtue of their speed, flight profile, and maneuverability, are notoriously difficult to detect and intercept. Western nations have invested heavily in missile defense capabilities to counter traditional threats, but the advent of hypersonic and quasi-hypersonic systems from China adds a new layer of complexity. If these systems are capable of bypassing the S-400, a system engineered with multi-band radar networks and advanced interception missiles, there is growing concern that even the most advanced U.S. and European defenses may require substantial upgrades to remain credible.