Economic Survey: Pakistanis Consuming More Calories, Fruits and Vegetables

Pakistanis are eating more and healthier foods, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22. Per capita average daily calorie intake in Pakistan has jumped to 2,735 calories in FY 2021-22 from 2,457 calories in 2019-20. The biggest contributor to it is the per capita consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables which soared from 53.6 Kg to 68.3 Kg, less than half of the 144 Kg (400 grams/day) recommended by the World Health Organization. Healthy food helps cut disease burdens and reduces demand on the healthcare system. Under former Prime Minister Imran Khan's leadership, Pakistan succeeded in achieving these nutritional improvements in spite of surging global food prices amid the Covid19 pandemic

Pakistan Per Capita Daily Calorie Consumption. Source: Economic Surveys of Pakistan

The trend of higher per capita daily calorie consumption has continued since the 1950s. It has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2735 in 2021-22. The per capita per day protein intake in grams increased from 63 to 67 to about 75 during these years. Health experts recommend that women consume at least 1,200 calories a day, and men consume at least 1,500 calories a day, says Harvard Health Publishing.  The global average has increased from 2360 kcal/person/day in the mid-1960s to 2900 kcal/person/day currently, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) estimates that most women need 1,600 to 2,400 calories, while the majority of men need 2,000 to 3,000 calories each day to maintain a healthy weight. Global Hunger Index defines food deprivation, or undernourishment, as consumption of fewer than 1,800 calories per day.

Share of Overweight or Obese Adults. Source: Our World in Data

The share of overweight or obese adults in Pakistan's population is estimated by the World Health Organization at 28.4%. It is 20% in Bangladesh, 19.7% in India, 32.3% in China, 61.6% in Iran and 68% in the United States.   

Major Food Items Consumed in Pakistan. Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22

The latest edition of the Economic Survey of Pakistan estimates that per capita calories come from the annual per capita consumption of  164.7 Kg of cereals, 7.3 Kg of pulses (daal), 28.3 Kg of sugar, 168.8 liters of milk, 22.5 Kg of meat, 2.9 Kg of fish, 8.1 dozen eggs, 14.5 Kg of ghee (cooking oil) and 68.3 Kg of fruits and vegetables.  Pakistan's economy grew 5.97% and agriculture outputs increased a record 4.4% in FY 2021-22, according to the Economic Survey. The 4.4% growth in agriculture has boosted consumption and supported Pakistan's rural economy.  

Pakistan Growth Indicators. Source: Economic Survey 2021-22

The minimum recommended food basket in Pakistan is made up of basic food items (cereals, pulses, fruits, vegetables, meat, milk, edible oils and sugar) to provide 2150 kcal and 60gram protein/day per capita. 

The state of Pakistan's social sector is not as dire as the headlines suggest. There are good reasons for optimism. Key indicators show that nutrition and health in Pakistan are improving but such improvements need to be accelerated. 

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  • Riaz Haq

    There has been a soaring demand of Edible oil in the global market, which is anticipated to record a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 5.1% to touch a level of around US$ 130.3b by end of 2024. The main contributors to the Edible oils industry are soybean oil and palm oil, which are mainly produced and exported by Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia. One of the leading markets of edible oil in the world is China followed by India, UAE and Pakistan.

    https://ir.iba.edu.pk/research-projects-mba/201/

    In Pakistan, edible oil is considered as one of the most essential commodities of daily usage. During 1947 to 1960 Pakistan was self-sufficient in edible oils. In 1960, started the import of edible oils and since then its import has been on an increasing trend due to lack of research and development, government polices to support farmers and resistance of import lobbies. Pakistan has been persistently and chronically deficient in its production as around 70% of the national requirement of Edible oil are fulfilled by imports. At the moment, Pakistan is one of the largest edible oil importers in the world with the import figures amounting to more than USD 3bn annually, which is imposing huge pressure on foreign exchange reserves being the 2nd highest import bill after energy import. And alone Palm oil contributes 91 percent of the total edible oil imports

    ---
    The objectives of the project include detailed study on Oil-Palm plantation i.e. Oil producing breeds, yield of fruit, environment, labour, land, farming and irrigation techniques; designing the Supply chain for a Palm Oil Extraction plant; developing technical and financial feasibility of a Palm Oil Extraction plant – Land, Labour, Machinery, Utilities etc.; and providing recommendations for future actions based on the outcome of feasibility study.

    The project is expected to have manifold benefits in the realm of (1) import substitution, by locally producing different types of Palm oil having a current local demand of around 2.8million tonnes; (2) environment protection by utilizing 95,000 Hectare unused fertile land of Interior Sindh in the farming of oil-palm trees, (3) poverty alleviation by providing small loans to women and poor people in the rural areas to grow oil palm saplings from seeds and sell the saplings to farmers, (4) employment generation for skilled and unskilled workforce when vast area of land will be cultivated with oil palm trees and CPO mills will be installed alongside the plantation (5), promote the halted industrialization in the country by establishing CPO mills,(6) transfer of technology, as when the new plants are set up, our country will eventually be able to replicate and adopt the technology involved in the manufacturing of imported machinery, not only fulfilling the future demands of local industry but also exporting the same to other countries.

    The project report is based on financial data and non-financial information obtained from primary and secondary research to create an operational model for Palm oil plantation and extraction in Pakistan. Our research methodology included the literature review, Interviews with experts, field visits, factory visits, Quotations and Comparative Analysis, and review of financial statements of current market players.

    Based on our research, visits and interviews it was determined that in Pakistan there are ample opportunities and favorable conditions for growing oil-palm trees. Report findings suggest that Coastal belt of Sindh has proven capability of growing oil-palm trees with a per acre yield comparable to that in major oil palm growing countries due to plenty of fertile land, irrigation water courses, supply of fertilizers, and skilled farmers available in this part of land.

  • Riaz Haq

    The (Pakistan) government is working on a policy that will not only reduce dependence on imported palm oil but also facilitate and support farmers to grow oilseed crops, Minister for National Food Security and Research, Tariq Bashir Cheema, said on Tuesday.

    https://www.dawn.com/news/1698469

    At a press conference, Mr Cheema said the government has decided to take short- to long-term policy measures for the uplift of the agriculture sector, focusing on encouraging the farming community to bring more area under cultivation with the ultimate objective of achieving self-sufficiency in all the major crops and reducing the country’s import bill for certain agricultural products.

    The country is currently spending $4.5 billion annually on the import of palm oil, and it is expected that the import bill for this commodity will increase to $6bn next year.

    The minister said spending $1bn on the import of three million tonnes of wheat and $6bn on importing palm oil in a year is a big loss of foreign exchange, which is a matter of grave concern.

    “The present government has revised the procurement targets for the procurement of wheat by the Punjab government and Passco, which have been achieved. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and the pressure built on the countries of the Central Asian Republic on their exports, the government has attained sufficient wheat stock to avoid the imposition of any emergency,” he added.

    The minister said that the support price for wheat, being the important staple food crop, will be announced well ahead of the rabi season so that farmers will be able to have their own production estimates while keeping in view the market trends.

    As far as cotton is concerned, Mr Cheema said that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has already formed a special committee headed by Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, to formulate a recommendation as to how to incentivise cotton growers so that the lost area under cotton cultivation should be revived.

    The intervention price for cotton will be set keeping in view of the price in the international market so that cotton growers should not face any loss, he said.

    As part of the long-term policy measure, the government has decided to solarise all the 1.2m tube wells that are run on electricity. Once solarised, the agricultural tube wells will be 100 per cent free of electricity.

    The special committee has proposed that bank financing on easy instalments be offered to farmers, and in this regard, the government is currently negotiating with commercial banks, he said.

    He said that all agricultural inputs have been made tax free, and while referring to the availability of tractors, he was of the view that farmers should get tractors from banks on lease financing, as in the case of leasing of vehicles. This will help eliminate the profit of middlemen.

    The minister said that Pakistan and China will shortly sign an agreement on buffalo breed improvement.

  • Riaz Haq

    With Pakistan's 24 Kg per capita consumption of cooking oil, I am reminded of a
    "Panchon unglian ghee (cooking oil) mein", a South Asian phrase describing the image of plenty.

    https://www.dawn.com/news/1648260
    ---------

    It also brings up another South Asian phrase "Aap ke munh mein ghee shakar (sugar)"

    Per caput sugar consumption in Pakistan, at about 22 kilograms a year, is slightly above the world average and compares to India's per caput use of 15 kilograms. If the consumption of non-centrifugal sugars were added, apparent consumption would be much higher.

    https://www.fao.org/3/x0513e/x0513e23.htm

    ------------

    Sugar consumption per capita reached 21.1 kg in 2019 in Pakistan, according to Faostat. This is 2.41% less than in the previous year.

    Historically, sugar consumption per capita in Pakistan reached an all time high of 25.8 kg in 2008 and an all time low of 1.80 kg in 1961.



    https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/sugar-consumption-per-capit...

    -----------

    Generally, centrifugal, and non-centrifugal brown cane sugar show a superior nutritional value and bioactive molecule content compared to refined white cane sugardue to the molasses content and the process requiring less refining on different products.

    https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/1/460/htm

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan’s total oilseed use to hold steady in 2022-23 | World Grain

    https://www.world-grain.com/articles/16662-pakistans-total-oilseed-...

    Imports of soybean, canola and palm oil are expected to hold steady at 3.4 million tonnes. No growth is expected in edible oil imports for 2022-23 and are forecast at 3.7 million tonnes(accounting for 70% of total cooking oil consumption in Pakistan). Soybean and rapeseed imports for 2022-23 are forecast to remain on par with the previous year at 2.6 million and 0.8 million tonnes, respectively. While facing significant price pressure and potential for disruption in supplies from key exporters, palm oil is forecast to remain the major imported oil, with imports forecast at 3.6 million tonnes.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan: Sugar Annual | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

    https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/pakistan-sugar-annual-5

    Due to slight increases in area and sugarcane yields, sugar production in 2022/23 is forecast to reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal increase over the good 2021/22 crop. Sugar consumption for 2022/23 is forecast at 6.1 MMT, which would be a 3.3 percent increase, reflecting population growth and demand from the expanding food processing sector. The production estimate for 2021/22 is increased reflecting the excellent crop last year. As a result, ending stocks are higher, leading to a larger exportable surplus entering 2022/23. Due to the large stocks, and competitive prices, sugar exports are forecast to reach one million tons in 2022/23.

  • Riaz Haq

    From Wheat Exporter to Wheat Importer
    Dr. Muhammad Shahbaz
    July 17, 2022
    The writer is research fellow at University of Cambrdige, UK and Professor at Biejing Institue of Technlogy China.


    https://mmnews.tv/from-wheat-exporter-to-wheat-importer/


    The agricultural sector is one of the largest contributors to the economy. While declining as a proportion of GDP, agriculture still contributes one-fifth of Pakistan’s wealth and almost half the population depends directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. With 79.6 million acres of arable land, there is a great potential for improving efficiencies and productivity of the agriculture sector. The crop sector is an important sector of the economy which provides food to rapidly growing population of the country. The major crops consist of six main crops: wheat, rice, sugarcane, maize, chickpea and cotton. Wheat is Pakistan’s largest crop, in terms of area sown and is grown under different agro-ecological zones. Wheat flour currently contributes 72% of Pakistan’s daily caloric intake with per capita wheat consumption of around 124 kilograms (kg) per year, one of the highest in the world. In irrigated areas, wheat is planted after cotton, rice, and sugarcane, while in rain fed areas wheat is grown at the same time as maize and millet. The sowing of wheat takes place from October to December and harvests from March to May. Approximately 80% of farmers grow it on an area of around 9 million hectares (close to 40% of the country’s total cultivated land) during the winter.

    Wheat is the most widely grown crop in the world. Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is one of the first domesticated food crops and has been the basic staple food of the major civilizations of Europe, West Asia and North Africa for last 8000 years. Approximately one sixth of the total arable land in the world is under wheat. It is most demanded food grain and its production leads all crops, including rice, maize and potatoes. In Pakistan, wheat being the main staple food cultivated on the largest acreages. Pakistan falls in ten major wheat-producing countries of the world in terms of area under wheat cultivation, total production and yield per hectare. Wheat is the essential diet of population as it constitutes 60% of the daily diet of common man in Pakistan and average per capita consumption is about 125 kg and occupies a central position in agricultural policies of the government. Based on cropping pattern, disease prevalence and climate, Pakistan has been divided into a ten production zones. However, production zones need to be revisited. In Pakistan, wheat is grown in different cropping systems, such as; cotton wheat, rice wheat, sugarcane wheat, maize wheat, fallow wheat. Of these, Cotton-Wheat and Rice-Wheat systems together account about 60% of the total wheat area whereas rain-fed wheat covers more than 1.50 m ha area. Rotations with Maize-Sugarcane, Pulses and fallow are also important.

  • Riaz Haq

    From Wheat Exporter to Wheat Importer
    Dr. Muhammad Shahbaz

    https://mmnews.tv/from-wheat-exporter-to-wheat-importer/




    Pakistan’s growing population is seeing an increased demand for wheat. However, the production of the commodity is not rising at a proportional rate. Pakistan’s 2020-21 marketing year wheat production is expected to decrease to 25.2 million tons due to the impact of untimely rain at harvesting. Despite having fertile lands and bumper wheat crops, Pakistan had to import four million tons of wheat last year. South Asian country has undergone a historic shift from being an exporter of wheat to a major importer of wheat. Agricultural experts of Pakistan have called upon the government to impose a ban on wheat exports of local grains amid serious repercussion of the Russia-Ukraine war, which will disrupt the supply of wheat in the international market. A farmer’s lobby group, has suggested the government to maintain wheat stocks through procurement during the on-going harvest and put a stop to wheat exports. It should be noted that Ukraine is the third largest exporter of wheat, holding at least 12% share in the global export market for the staple grain. The war in Ukraine will push the prices higher and opportunists might sell off the food security to fill their coffers. The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine will have a serious economic fallout, effects of which have already started to show in Pakistan. Local prices of gasoline, food, commodities, and steel and semiconductor chips are witnessing a major increase. Pakistan is the seventh-largest market in the Middle East, African, and South Asian regions, as measured in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). It has the second-largest economy in South Asia, after India. The economy has been growing slowly over the past two decades. However, the containment measures adopted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic led to a severe contraction in economic activity.

    Pakistan has bought wheat regularly in the global market in recent months to boost domestic supply and cool prices. Pakistan’s MY 2020/21 wheat imports are estimated at 3.4 MMT.
  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan’s total grains imports, all of which are wheat, in 2021-22 are forecast at 2 million tonnes, down from 4 million the year before. The country is expected to export 200,000 tonnes of wheat, the same amount as in 2020-21.

    https://www.world-grain.com/articles/15862-focus-on-pakistan

    Production of rice in 2021-22 is forecast at 7.8 million tonnes, up from 7.6 million the year before. Exports of rice in 2021-22 are put at 4.2 million tonnes, up from 4 million.

    The IGC also forecasts Pakistan’s imports of rapeseed at 900,000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous year.

    In an annual report on June 24, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché puts Pakistan’s maize production in 2021-22 at a record 7.9 million tonnes, up from 7.8 million the previous year.

    “Wheat is Pakistan’s largest crop, in terms of area sown and is grown under different agro-ecological zones,” the attaché explained. “In irrigated areas, wheat is planted after cotton, rice, and sugarcane, while in rainfed areas wheat is grown at the same time as maize and millet.

    “Sowing of wheat takes place from October to December and harvests from the month of March to May. Approximately 80% of farmers grow it on an area of around 9 million hectares (close to 40% of the country’s total cultivated land) during the winter or ‘Rabi’ season.”

    The attaché added, “Wheat is Pakistan’s main dietary staple. Pakistan has a variety of traditional flat breads, often prepared in a traditional clay oven called a tandoor.”

    Wheat flour contributes 72% of calorific intake, with per capita wheat consumption at around 124 kilograms per person each year, one of the highest levels in the world. About 95% of wheat used in Pakistan goes for human consumption.

    “As incomes increase and a stronger middle class emerges, consumers are gradually shifting toward more dairy, meat, and other higher-value food products in their diet,” the report said. “Over the long term, this shift to a more balanced diet has the potential to limit the pace of growth in wheat consumption.”

  • Riaz Haq

    Wheat Consumption Determinants and Food Security Challenges:
    Evidence from Pakistan
    SANIA SHAHEEN, LAL K. ALMAS, MUHAMMAD USMAN


    https://wseas.com/journals/ead/2022/a865115-797.pdf

    Since 1975, 27% increase in
    total area and 52% increase in yield per hectare for
    wheat are reported. While, 33% increase in wheat
    availability per capita was deemed insufficient. In
    this situation, imports of wheat were the most
    apparent result due to higher growth of population.
    To fulfill the dream of food self-sufficiency,
    government facilitated farmers by providing high
    yielding varieties, fertilizers at a subsidized rate,
    irrigation water at a lower rate than tube well water
    etc. Though, these facilities have not been able to
    reach the desire level of output mainly due to (i)
    poor economic conditions of the farmers, lack of
    knowledge on the latest useful techniques and
    advancement. (ii) low price of production at
    harvesting time made the farmers insecure about
    investments they have done for inputs. (iii)
    inappropriate land levelling along with late sowing
    resulted in lower production. (iv) Insufficiency,
    inequity, and unreliability in water distribution are
    mutually affect the farmers irrigation calendars for
    the wheat crop. Water stress to wheat at sensitive
    stages, hinders the entire effort of production [20].

  • Riaz Haq

    Wheat Consumption Dynamics in
    Selected Countries in Asia and Africa:
    Implications for Wheat Supply by 2030 and 2050
    Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb, Kai Sonder, Santiago López Ridaura and Ayman Frija

    https://repository.cimmyt.org/bitstream/handle/10883/21871/64912.pd...

    Wheat is the principal staple crop of Pakistan. In
    TE2018, the country’s yearly per capita total wheat
    consumption was 110 kg, supplying a daily per capita
    calorie intake of 920 kcal and constituting 37% of the
    total daily calorie intake per person. Since the 1990s,
    yearly per capita wheat consumption in Pakistan has
    been on a slight decline (Figure 1). While the country’s
    wheat yield falls below the world average (Table 1),
    Pakistan has been highly successful in achieving
    wheat self-sufficiency, thanks to several strategic
    imports (Figure 2). In 2019, the country produced
    more than 24 million t of wheat with a yield of 2.8 t/ha
    from 8.7 million ha of land. The output was enough to
    meet 99% of Pakistan’s total wheat demand for 2019
    -----------

    For China, Rozelle and Huang (1998) projected that
    considering low- and high-income growth, yearly
    per capita wheat consumption in China would fall
    between 80-83 kg by 2020. In 2018 however, actual
    yearly per capita wheat consumption was 64 kg
    (FAOSTAT, 2021a). For Pakistan, applying the AIDS
    model estimation procedure and using the Household
    Integrated Economic Survey 2007-08 datasets, Nazil
    et al., (2012) forecasted that by 2019-20, yearly per
    capita wheat consumption for Pakistan would fall
    between 115-118 kg and the total demand for wheat
    will be 24.2 million t. In 2018 however, actual yearly
    per capita wheat consumption in Pakistan was 110
    kg and the total wheat consumption was 23.3 million
    t (FAOSTAT, 2021a). This demonstrates that the
    majority of wheat consumption forecasts fall short
    in reality and highlights the need for consumption
    forecasting that uses innovative methods and models.

    https://repository.cimmyt.org/bitstream/handle/10883/21871/64912.pd...

  • Riaz Haq

    Bilal I Gilani
    @bilalgilani
    Fish production (800,000 tons) in Pakistan increasing mainly contributed by rising number of inland farms (300,000)

    https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1560901583856074753?s=20&...

  • Riaz Haq

    In the 2021 GHI, Pakistan ranks 92nd out of 116 countries with sufficient data to calculate GHI scores. With a score of 24,7 Pakistan has a level of hunger that is serious. Since 2000, the GHI score of Pakistan has decreased by 12, which represent a percentage decreased of 23.7%. Pakistan’s GHI score trend shows that, while the decline in the score is steady, it has decreased at a faster rate since 2012, meaning that progress in the fight against hunger is accelerating.

    https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/08/17/welthungerhilfe-present...

  • Riaz Haq

    Although GHI scores show that global hunger has been on the decline since 2000, progress is slowing. While the GHI score for the world fell 4.7 points, from 25.1 to 20.4, between 2006 and 2012, it has fallen just 2.5 points since 2012. After decades of decline, the global prevalence of undernourishment—one of the four indicators used to calculate GHI scores—is increasing.

    https://reliefweb.int/report/world/2021-global-hunger-index-hunger-....

    -------The average minimum dietary energy requirement varies by country—from about 1,660 to more than 2,050 kilocalories (commonly, albeit incorrectly, referred to as calories) per person per day for all countries with available data in 2020 (FAO 2021). For previous GHI calculations, see von Grebmer et al.

    https://www.globalhungerindex.org/about.html#:~:text=The%20average%....

  • Riaz Haq

    GHI scores are calculated using a three-step process that draws on available data from various sources to capture the multidimensional nature of hunger (Figure A.1).

    First, for each country, values are determined for four indicators:

    UNDERNOURISHMENT: the share of the population that is undernourished (that is, whose caloric intake is insufficient);

    CHILD WASTING: the share of children under the age of five who are wasted (that is, who have low weight for their height, reflecting acute undernutrition);

    CHILD STUNTING: the share of children under the age of five who are stunted (that is, who have low height for their age, reflecting chronic undernutrition); and

    CHILD MORTALITY: the mortality rate of children under the age of five (in part, a reflection of the fatal mix of inadequate nutrition and unhealthy environments).

    Second, each of the four component indicators is given a standardized score on a 100-point scale based on the highest observed level for the indicator on a global scale in recent decades.

    Third, standardized scores are aggregated to calculate the GHI score for each country, with each of the three dimensions (inadequate food supply; child mortality; and child undernutrition, which is composed equally of child stunting and child wasting) given equal weight (the formula for calculating GHI scores is provided in Appendix B).

    This three-step process results in GHI scores on a 100-point GHI Severity Scale, where 0 is the best score (no hunger) and 100 is the worst. In practice, neither of these extremes is reached. A value of 0 would mean that a country had no undernourished people in the population, no children younger than five who were wasted or stunted, and no children who died before their fifth birthday. A value of 100 would signify that a country’s undernourishment, child wasting, child stunting, and child mortality levels were each at approximately the highest levels observed worldwide in recent decades. The GHI Severity Scale shows the severity of hunger—from low to extremely alarming—associated with the range of possible GHI scores.

    BOX 1.1
    WHAT IS MEANT BY “HUNGER”?
    The problem of hunger is complex, and different terms are used to describe its various forms.

    Hunger is usually understood to refer to the distress associated with a lack of sufficient calories. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) defines food deprivation, or undernourishment, as the consumption of too few calories to provide the minimum amount of dietary energy that each individual requires to live a healthy and productive life, given that person’s sex, age, stature, and physical activity level.

    Undernutrition goes beyond calories and signifies deficiencies in any or all of the following: energy, protein, and/ or essential vitamins and minerals. Undernutrition is the result of inadequate intake of food in terms of either quantity or quality, poor utilization of nutrients due to infections or other illnesses, or a combination of these factors. These, in turn, are caused by a range of factors, including household food insecurity; inadequate maternal health or childcare practices; or inadequate access to health services, safe water, and sanitation.

    Malnutrition refers more broadly to both undernutrition (problems caused by deficiencies) and overnutrition (problems caused by unbalanced diets, such as consuming too many calories in relation to requirements with or without low intake of micronutrient-rich foods).

    In this report, “hunger” refers to the index based on four component indicators. Taken together, the component indicators reflect deficiencies in calories as well as in micronutrients.

    https://www.globalhungerindex.org/about.html#:~:text=The%20average%....

  • Riaz Haq

    India Hunger Index Controversy:


    Noted columnists in India have also commented on how a faulty metric, which is based on four measures or indicators (none of which actually measure hunger) is creating a flawed narrative against India9,10. Prominent researchers have commented that the GHI exaggerates the measure of hunger, lacks statistical vigour10, has a problem of multiple counts11,12, and gives higher representation to under-five children. The measurement of hunger is complex and should not be oversimplified, as in the GHI13. Therefore, the use of alternative approaches should be considered to evaluate hunger14,15. In view of these issues, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), Department of Health Research of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, constituted in 2019 an Expert Committee to review the indicators used in the GHI. The deliberations of this Committee are presented here, and it is argued that the four indicators used in the GHI, [undernourishment, stunting, wasting and child mortality (CM)] do not measure hunger per se, as these are not the manifestations of hunger alone.

    Go to:
    About the GHI
    The GHI is a weighted average derived from four indicators1. These are (i) the PUN, or proportion of the population that is undernourished, calculated as the proportion of the population that has an energy intake less than the FAO Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement (MDER) of 1800 calories/capita/day1; (ii) CWA, or the prevalence of wasting in children under five years old, estimated as the percentage of children aged 0-59 months, whose weight for height is below minus two standard deviations (-2SD) from the median of the WHO Child Growth Standards1; (iii) CST, or the prevalence of stunting in children under five years old, estimated as the percentage of children, aged 0-59 months, whose height for age is below -2SD from the median of the WHO Child Growth Standards; and (iv) CM, or the proportion of children dying before the age of five, estimated as the proportion of child deaths between birth and five years of age, generally expressed per 1000 live births. As per the justification mentioned in the GHI report1 for using these indicators, the PUN indicator captures the nutrition situation of the entire population while the other indicators are specific to under-five children (CWA, CST and CM) in which the adverse effects assume greater importance. The inclusion of both wasting and stunting (CWA and CST) is intended to allow the GHI to consider both acute and chronic undernutrition.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9131786/

  • Riaz Haq

    ‘Diet of Average Indian Lacks Protein, Fruit, Vegetables’
    On average, the Indian total calorie intake is approximately 2,200 kcals per person per day, 12 per cent lower than the EAT-Lancet reference diet's recommended level.

    https://www.india.com/lifestyle/diet-of-average-indian-lacks-protei...

    Compared to an influential diet for promoting human and planetary health, the diets of average Indians are considered unhealthy comprising excess consumption of cereals, but not enough consumption of proteins, fruits and vegetables, said a new study.Also Read - Autistic Pride Day 2020: Diet Rules For Kids With Autism

    The findings by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and CGIAR research program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) broadly apply across all states and income levels, underlining the challenges many Indians face in obtaining healthy diets.

    “The EAT-Lancet diet is not a silver bullet for the myriad nutrition and environmental challenges food systems currently present, but it does provide a useful guide for evaluating how healthy and sustainable Indian diets are,” said the lead author of the research article, A4NH Program Manager Manika Sharma. Also Read - Experiencing Hair Fall? Include These Super-foods in Your Daily Diet ASAP

    “At least on the nutrition front we find Indian diets to be well below optimal.”

    The EAT-Lancet reference diet, published by the EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, and Health, implies that transforming eating habits, improving food production and reducing food wastage is critical to feed a future population of 10 billion a healthy diet within planetary boundaries.

    While the EAT-Lancet reference diet recommends eating large shares of plant-based foods and little to no processed meat and starchy vegetables, the research demonstrates that incomes and preferences in India are driving drastically different patterns of consumption.

  • Riaz Haq

    #Modi says bhajans (#Hindu religious songs) will cure #malnutrition. Over 35% of #Indian children are stunted, 19.3% wasted & 32.5% underweight.
    BJP rule has seen undernourished population increase from 14.9% to 15.5% of population https://science.thewire.in/health/narendra-modi-malnutrition-bhajan/ via @TheWireScience


    In the 92nd episode of ‘Mann ki Baat’, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said conducting bhajans can be part of the solutions to reducing malnutrition.
    Cultural and traditional practices are not harmful. But it is in bad faith to make them part of habits that sideline tested and approved solutions to crucial welfare issues.
    The statement also distracts from the fact that in Modi’s time as prime minister, India has come to account for a quarter of all undernourished people worldwide

    There is much evidence in the public domain that says the availability, accessibility and affordability of good-quality food is crucial to improve the nutritional and health status of India’s people. There is nothing, however, about bhajans.

    Many scholars and scientists have often criticised Prime Minister Modi for his irrational claims on many occasions. Reminiscent of his “taali, thali and Diwali” campaign as the COVID-19 pandemic was gaining strength, Modi’s comment on bhajans only distracts from the dire importance of effective public health measures – even as the rate of improvement of some important indicators have slid in his time at the helm.

    Cultural and traditional practices are not harmful. But it is in bad faith to make them part of habits that sideline tested and approved solutions to crucial welfare issues.

    In his monologue, Modi narrated a story of how people of a community in Madhya Pradesh each contribute a small quantity of grains, using which a meal is prepared for everyone one day a week. However, he shifted the focus at this point to devotional music in bhajan–kirtans – organised under the ‘Mera Bachha’ campaign – instead of dwelling on the role of Indigenous food cultures. This is counterproductive.

    More malnourished children

    India’s National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) and Comprehensive National Nutrition Surveys have documented the high prevalence of malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency among India’s children, adolescents and women. The recently published NFHS-5 results reported a high prevalence of stunting, wasting and underweightedness among children younger than five years and that they have declined only marginally in the last five years.

    --------

    A public-health approach to malnutrition requires us to pay attention to a large variety of socioeconomic conditions. In this regard, while many of Prime Minister Modi’s other comments in his monologue are well-taken, especially about public participation, neither the need for context-specific interventions nor for evidence-based policies are served by misplaced allusions to bhajans and kirtans.

  • Riaz Haq

    Why Is Urban India Hungry For Nutrition

    http://bwhealthcareworld.businessworld.in/article/Why-Is-Urban-Indi...

    More than two billion people globally suffer from ‘hidden hunger’, simply put, micronutrient deficiencies. Protein, calcium, iron, zinc and essential vitamins such as Vit D, Vit B12 that the body requires to function

    For the longest time, hunger has been associated with the poor. Malnutrition is a term, we are all used to by now, especially in developing nations. However, the sound of ‘urban hunger’ may ring an unfamiliar bell in most ears. The urbanites or city dwellers are known for access and affordability yet there is a growing hunger for nutrition being cited in research today.

    As per the comprehensive National Nutrition survey (CNNS 2016-2018) conducted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the percentage of the population with iron deficiency has been reported to be highest at 27 per cent in the richest sector for both 5-9 and 10-19 years of Indian children and adolescents. Same is the case with Folate, Vit D, Vit B12, and Zinc deficiency.

    More than two billion people globally suffer from ‘hidden hunger’, simply put, micronutrient deficiencies. Protein, calcium, iron, zinc and essential vitamins such as Vit D, Vit B12 that the body requires to function. To put it in a closer-home perspective, it could be 7 out of 10 Indians. India has recorded a triple burden of malnutrition with 189 million suffering from undernutrition, 135 million impacted by over nutrition and a whopping 700 million lacking some form of micronutrient deficiency.

    Despite being highlighted as one the most cost-effective investments for human development, progress on addressing micronutrient deficiencies or mind has not shown an upward trend in recent years.

    Hidden hunger does not allow children to reach their growth potential. 22 per cent of children and adolescents remain affected by stunting or low height for age and 24 per cent by wasting or low weight for height. The key micronutrient gap is not only a problem of the poor but also a big problem for middle and rich households; the problem deteriorates as kids grow older. This is also one of the reasons for instances of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and hypertension is on the rise among adolescents.

    India is a predominantly cereal-consuming nation and lacks a balanced diet. Keep in mind that Indian meals are big but not balanced, with big gaps in nutrient density. Fussy eating in younger children and unhealthy eating habits in older children are fueling gaps in nutrient intake, leading to poor nutritional status and early onset of NCDs.

    Some more facts or key nutrition concerns cited by national data sets:

    5 vital micronutrient deficiencies reported in both urban and rural children between 1-

    19 years

    One in 2 adolescents suffer from at least 2/5 micronutrient deficiencies – (Iron,

    Folate, B12, Vitamin D, Vitamin A and Zinc)

    Protein intake, especially in terms of quality, is still a big concern. Diets are

    predominantly carbohydrate centric and lack diversity from dairy, pulses etc.

    Bioavailability especially of minerals like iron, zinc is poor from a plant-based diet

    Consumption of animal-based foods- milk, meat, eggs still low in the country leading

    to poor nutritional status in nutrients like protein, iron, zinc, vitamin B12 etc.

    Also, there is increased consumption of salt and sugar in the country along with junk foods or packaged foods, or outside food. Data shows increased consumption of 119 per cent more salt than the WHO recommendation and 180 per cent more sugar than the prescribed limit. The world of nutrition is still greek to Indian consumers which hinders their purchase choices.

    The impact of this unsolved burden of malnutrition is huge. It leads to loss of productivity, illness, and increased healthcare costs, even may prove to be fatal with a loss of a minimum of 1 per cent of India’s GDP, approximately Rs.160K cr.

  • Riaz Haq

    Food Sources
    Meats, poultry, and seafood are richest in heme iron. Fortified grains, nuts, seeds, legumes, and vegetables contain non-heme iron. In the U.S. many breads, cereals, and infant formulas are fortified with iron.

    https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/iron/#:~:text=Food%20S....


    Iron is an important mineral that helps maintain healthy blood. A lack of iron is called iron-deficiency anemia, which affects about 4-5 million Americans yearly. [1] It is the most common nutritional deficiency worldwide, causing extreme fatigue and lightheadedness. It affects all ages, with children, women who are pregnant or menstruating, and people receiving kidney dialysis among those at highest risk for this condition.

    Iron is a major component of hemoglobin, a type of protein in red blood cells that carries oxygen from your lungs to all parts of the body. Without enough iron, there aren’t enough red blood cells to transport oxygen, which leads to fatigue. Iron is also part of myoglobin, a protein that carries and stores oxygen specifically in muscle tissues. Iron is important for healthy brain development and growth in children, and for the normal production and function of various cells and hormones.

    Iron from food comes in two forms: heme and non-heme. Heme is found only in animal flesh like meat, poultry, and seafood. Non-heme iron is found in plant foods like whole grains, nuts, seeds, legumes, and leafy greens. Non-heme iron is also found in animal flesh (as animals consume plant foods with non-heme iron) and fortified foods.

    Iron is stored in the body as ferritin (in the liver, spleen, muscle tissue, and bone marrow) and is delivered throughout the body by transferrin (a protein in blood that binds to iron). A doctor may sometimes check blood levels of these two components if anemia is suspected.

    --------

    Sources of heme iron:
    Oysters, clams, mussels
    Beef or chicken liver
    Organ meats
    Canned sardines
    Beef
    Poultry
    Canned light tuna
    Sources of non-heme iron:
    Fortified breakfast cereals
    Beans
    Dark chocolate (at least 45%)
    Lentils
    Spinach
    Potato with skin
    Nuts, seeds
    Enriched rice or bread

  • Riaz Haq

    In the 2022 Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranks 99th out of the 121 countries with sufficient data to calculate 2022 GHI scores. With a score of 26.1, Pakistan has a level of hunger that is serious.

    https://www.globalhungerindex.org/pakistan.html

    In the 2022 Global Hunger Index, India ranks 107th out of the 121 countries with sufficient data to calculate 2022 GHI scores. With a score of 29.1, India has a level of hunger that is serious.

    https://www.globalhungerindex.org/india.html

    -------------------

    India also ranks below Sri Lanka (64), Nepal (81), Bangladesh (84), and Pakistan (99). Afghanistan (109) is the only country in South Asia that performs worse than India on the index.


    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-ranks-107-out-of-121-c...


    India ranks 107th among 121 countries on the Global Hunger Index, in which it fares worse than all countries in South Asia barring war-torn Afghanistan.

    The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is a tool for comprehensively measuring and tracking hunger at global, regional, and national levels. GHI scores are based on the values of four component indicators — undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting and child mortality. Countries are divided into five categories of hunger on the basis of their score, which are ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘serious’, ‘alarming’ and ‘extremely alarming’.



    Based on the values of the four indicators, a GHI score is calculated on a 100-point scale reflecting the severity of hunger, where zero is the best score (no hunger) and 100 is the worst.

    India’s score of 29.1 places it in the ‘serious’ category. India also ranks below Sri Lanka (64), Nepal (81), Bangladesh (84), and Pakistan (99). Afghanistan (109) is the only country in South Asia that performs worse than India on the index.



    Seventeen countries, including China, are collectively ranked between 1 and 17 for having a score of less than five.

    India’s child wasting rate (low weight for height), at 19.3%, is worse than the levels recorded in 2014 (15.1%) and even 2000 (17.15), and is the highest for any country in the world and drives up the region’s average owing to India’s large population.

    Prevalence of undernourishment, which is a measure of the proportion of the population facing chronic deficiency of dietary energy intake, has also risen in the country from 14.6% in 2018-2020 to 16.3% in 2019-2021. This translates into 224.3 million people in India considered undernourished.

    But India has shown improvement in child stunting, which has declined from 38.7% to 35.5% between 2014 and 2022, as well as child mortality which has also dropped from 4.6% to 3.3% in the same comparative period. On the whole, India has shown a slight worsening with its GHI score increasing from 28.2 in 2014 to 29.1 in 2022. Though the GHI is an annual report, the rankings are not comparable across different years. The GHI score for 2022 can only be compared with scores for 2000, 2007 and 2014..



    Globally, progress against hunger has largely stagnated in recent years. The 2022 GHI score for the world is considered “moderate”, but at 18.2 in 2022 is only a slight improvement from 19.1 in 2014. This is due to overlapping crises such as conflict, climate change, the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Ukraine war, which has increased global food, fuel and fertiliser prices and is expected to "worsen hunger in 2023 and beyond."



    The prevalence of undernourishment, one of the four indicators, shows that the share of people who lack regular access to sufficient calories is increasing and that 828 million people were undernourished globally in 2021.

    There are 44 countries that currently have “serious” or “alarming” hunger levels and “without a major shift, neither the world as a whole nor approximately 46 countries are projected to achieve even low hunger as measured by the GHI by 2030,” notes the report.


  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan is the world’s 6th largest sugar producing country

    Pakistan produces 6.1 million tons of sugar in 2022

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/sugar-producing-...


    --------------

    Pakistan 5th largest sugar cane producing country


    67 million tons of sugar cane in 2019

    https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/ranking/sugar-cane-production

  • Riaz Haq

    How India can boost millets cultivation
    A region-specific strategy and their introduction in mid-day meals in schools and anganwadis could boost millets cultivation. The need for wholesome nutrition would also be more for children in the very regions that are suited for millet cultivation

    https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/mid-day-meals-...


    The United Nations has, at India’s initiative, declared 2023 as the International Year of Millets. This, even as India’s own production of these “nutri cereals” — jowar, bajra and ragi and minor millets such as kodo, kutki, kakun, sanwa, cheena and kuttu — has fallen from 23-24 million to 19-20 million tonnes over the last 4-5 decades. The reason: Millets aren’t the first choice either of consumers or producers. Kneading dough and rolling rotis is much easier with wheat than with millet flour. Wheat has gluten proteins that make the dough more cohesive and elastic. The resultant breads come out soft, unlike with millets that are gluten-free. The public distribution system (PDS) has made rice and wheat accessible even to the rural poor, for whom these were previous aspirational cereals. For farmers, too, millets are orphan crops. With access to irrigation, they will immediately switch to growing wheat and rice that yield 3-4 times more than jowar or bajra.

    That said, cultivation of millets deserves a special push, given their nutritional superiority over wheat and rice — whether in terms of amino acid profile or vitamins, minerals and crude fibre content. They are also hardier and drought-resistant crops, which has to do with their short growing season (70-100 days, as against 120-150 days for paddy and wheat) and lower water requirement (350-500 mm versus 600-1,200 mm). The right strategy would be to promote their cultivation in those regions — rain-fed semi-arid and hilly terrains — where they have been well-adapted. One cannot expect farmers in Punjab or coastal Andhra Pradesh to grow bajra and ragi; the yield sacrifices and opportunity costs of diverting irrigated land for these would be far too high. A more realistic approach is to incentivise farmers in western Rajasthan, southern Karnataka or eastern Madhya Pradesh — who are already cultivating bajra, ragi and minor millets — to not shift to rice and wheat. These districts/regions can, in turn, be developed as clusters for particular millets — like Dindori in MP for kodo and kutki.

    The same region-specific strategy could be adopted even for boosting consumption. India, according to data for 2021-22, has 14.89 lakh schools with 26.52 crore students. These, plus another 14 lakh pre-school anganwadi centres, constitute a large potential market for millets. The PDS can continue supplying rice and wheat, which are more amenable to nationwide procurement, stocking and distribution. But the schools and anganwadis can serve khichdi, dosas, energy bars and puddings made from locally-sourced millets, along with a daily glass of milk and egg for every child. The need for such wholesome nutrition would be more for children in the very regions that are suited for millet cultivation.

  • Riaz Haq

    Flour crisis deepens in Pakistan | World Grain

    https://www.world-grain.com/articles/18326-flour-crisis-deepens-in-...

    ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN — Despite slight increases expected for wheat production and imports in Pakistan, consumption is forecast to outstrip supply in marketing year 2023-24 in the country with the world’s fifth largest population, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

    Although a slight reduction in planted area is anticipated, wheat production in Pakistan is projected to increase 2% to 27 million tonnes, with wheat yield expected to rise due to favorable weather conditions and better availability of irrigation water. However, wheat consumption is forecast to increase 3% in 2023-24, the USDA said, in one of the fastest growing countries in the world with a population of 233 million. The shortage of wheat, which accounts for 72% of Pakistan’s daily caloric intake, has caused a flour-availability and affordability crisis in Pakistan.

    “High inflation has made it difficult for consumers to afford milk and meat, reversing the trend of more protein and less carbohydrates in the diet,” the USDA said. “As a result, consumption of wheat flour-based products is rebounding.”

    But the supply is not rebounding at the same rate, in part due to the weather, the Russia-Ukraine war and other factors, causing many of the country’s citizens to wait in long lines in hopes of getting a bag of government-subsidized flour. Dozens of people have been trampled to death or injured in recent weeks when crowds have rushed forward to try to get the flour.

    According to a recent World Food Programme report, the prices for staple cereals, pulses, and non-cereal food commodities continue to increase in Pakistan. It noted that the price of wheat flour has increased by 74% year-on-year.

    “The price of wheat and wheat flour has continued to increase in the country due to various factors, including the tight supply of private wheat, hoarding and profiteering,” the WFP report said.

  • Riaz Haq

    Assessment of macronutrients consumption in the diet of adolescent school children in four seasons: A longitudinal study from an urban city in Pakistan

    https://ecommons.aku.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1230&conte...

    Abstract Background: A healthy diet in the adolescence period is essential for physical, mental, and immunological development. We aimed to assess macronutrient consumption in the diet of adolescent school children using 24 h recalls in four seasons of the year. Method: This was a longitudinal study conducted from February 2014 to June 2015. The study population included 155 school children aged 7–14 years from an urban school in Karachi. 24HR recall was conducted on 4 random days of the 4 main seasons. A food composition table was developed where the weight, calories, carbohydrate, fat, and protein content of the food items were listed. Macronutrients quantifcation was calculated by using proportional weight from the food composition table. Food groups were also assigned to each food item including vegetables, fruits, grains, protein foods, dairy products, and oils. Results: A total of 155 adolescent children aged between 7 and 14 years were approached. Out of the 155 preadolescents and adolescents, 150 (96.7%) agreed to participate. The mean (SD) age of the children was 11.31 (1.6) years, and 59% of all the children were males. Overall mean (SD) daily intake for all seasons was 195.31 (86.87) grams of carbohydrates, 94.77 (71.87) grams of proteins, and 55.87 (30.79) grams of fats. Carbohydrates formed 48.16%, protein 21.92%, and fat 29.93% of the total caloric intake. The mean (SD) daily caloric intake was 1517 (644) grams. Overall, the highest source of calories was from carbohydrate 781 (347) Kilocalories (Kcal), followed by fat 502 (277) Kcal and protein 379 (287). The Carbohydrate intake in 24 h was highest in the autumn; 212.81 (85.37), and there was a signifcant diference in carbohydrate intake in all seasons (p value 0.003). Consumption of discretionary food group was high (31.3%), and consumption of fruits and vegetables was low (29%). Conclusion: The study reports a suboptimal caloric intake of fewer than 2000 cal/day among the adolescents from school. The highest source of calories was from carbohydrates.The highest consumption of food was in autumn and the least in summer. Fruits and vegetable intake was low, and discretionary food intake was high.

  • Riaz Haq

    The wheat production (in Pakistan) this year topped 27.5 million metric tons, the highest in the last 10 years, despite the challenges posed by heavy rains and floods last year, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement on Sunday.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/2414418/pm-hails-bumper-wheat-crop

    Chairing a review meeting on the wheat situation, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed the relevant federal government institutions as well as the provinces to increase their procurement quotas in the wake of a bumper crop.

    According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the meeting received a briefing on the wheat production, current reserves, carry-forward reserves, procurement targets, and progress of federal and provincial departments.

    Shehbaz applauded the record wheat production, saying that this achievement made possible by the grace of Allah, quality seeds, uninterrupted supply of fertiliser, and the timely decisions of the government and its Farmers Package.

    “The bumper crop of wheat is a testament to the government’s timely decisions and excellent governance,” he said. “Looking forward, the government is preparing a strategy to increase wheat production even further next year,” he added.

    “With the government’s continued efforts and the dedication of farmers, Pakistan aims to maintain its position as a leading wheat producer,” he said, congratulating the farmers for their hard work and dedication to achieve the milestone despite financial difficulties.

    He noted that Pakistan became a wheat importing country due to the mismanagement of the previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. The PTI government, he added, made farmers to stand in long queues for fertilisers.

    He urged the federal and provincial institutions to increase procurement targets to enable uninterrupted supply of wheat throughout the year. He also instructed that the resources required to obtain the specified quantity of wheat should be provided through banks.

    He congratulated Food Security Minister Tariq Bashir Cheema and the officials concerned, and directed all institutions to increase their targets. The meeting was also attended by the caretaker Punjab minister for industries, and other senior officials.

  • Riaz Haq

    A brewing up controversy over GDP growth figures. The revised estimates suggests that the last fiscal year growth went up to around 6.5 percent against provisional figure of 5.97 percent @ NAC meeting postponed

    https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1071476-nac-meeting-postponed


    At the last moment, a National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting scheduled for Thursday (today) has been postponed apparently on the pretext that some census data will be incorporated into it for calculating the provisional GDP growth figure and per capita income.

    However, top sources confided to The News on Wednesday that efforts were still under way to turn the possible negative growth figures into positive despite witnessing a steep fall in the figure of Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) in March 2023 whereby it contacted by 25 per cent. In July-March period of the current fiscal, the LSM dropped by 8.1 per cent. There are some more worrying developments as the initial estimates suggest that the finalized figure of GDP growth for the last financial year went up from the provisional figure of 5.97 per cent to finalized figure of 6.5 per cent for 2021-22 so the revised GDP growth figure would also result in showing more declining figure of provisional growth in the outgoing financial year 2022-23. Where there was a higher base, it would negatively affect the provisional growth prospects for the outgoing financial year, said the sources.

    “The latest estimates suggest that the provisional GDP growth is negative so far in the range of -0.8 per cent to -1 per cent for the current fiscal year 2022-23,” said the sources and added that it could not be yet ascertained how the provisional GDP growth figures would be turned into positive one. Now the NAC may be rescheduled for Friday (tomorrow), but the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has not yet issued an official notification on the NAC meeting. However, one top official told The News that on the request of the PBS, the NAC meeting was rescheduled for Friday because the latest census data might be incorporated for calculating the provisional GDP growth figures and the per capita income in both rupee and dollar terms.

    Pakistan envisaged GDP growth target of 5 per cent for the current financial year 2022-23 on the eve of the budget with the help of agriculture growth target of 3.9 per cent, manufacturing 7.1 per cent and services sector 5.1 per cent. The IMF and the World Bank had projected a downward revision of GDP growth in the range of 0.5 per cent for the current fiscal year. The Ministry of Finance had projected growth rate of 0.8 per cent in its revised estimates for the current financial year. The agriculture sector growth may also remain negative and it will solely depend upon the factor of wheat production. Among the services sector, the credit to private sector witnessed new low as the private sector credit from banks stood at just Rs 72 billion so far in the current fiscal year against Rs 800 billion in the same period of the last financial year.

    The Wholesale and Retail trade might also witness declining trends, keeping in view imports compression. On eve of the budget for 2022-23, the government had envisaged GDP growth rate at 5 per cent and inflation at 11.5 per cent. Now the average CPI based inflation is expected to hover around 29-30 per cent on average for the current fiscal year.

  • Riaz Haq

    Amid Food Insecurity, Pakistan Reports Record-Breaking Wheat Harvest

    https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-food-insecurity-record-breaking-wh...

    By RFE/RL
    AP


    With ongoing disruption to global supplies caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is some good news on commodities markets: Pakistan, one of the world's top 10 wheat-producing countries, has reported a record-breaking harvest.

    Pakistan's highest wheat production in a decade is a welcome respite for its cash-strapped government struggling through economic, political, and food insecurity.


    Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to social media on April 30 to announce that the country had attained a “record bumper” harvest of wheat totaling 27.5 million metric tons.

    The announcement came as Pakistan has been dealing with record inflation and struggling to avoid a default on its debt as it recovers from last summer's floods, which killed 1,379 people and caused $30 billion in damages.

    On global markets, the prices of grains, vegetable oil, dairy, and other agricultural commodities have fallen steadily from record highs. But often the relief hasn’t trickled down to the real world of shopkeepers, street vendors, and families trying to make ends meet.

    Food prices were already running high when Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, disrupting trade in grain and fertilizer and sending prices up even more. But on a global scale, that price shock ended long ago.

    According to the UN, food prices have decreased for a full year straight due to bumper crops in countries like Brazil and Russia, and a fragile wartime arrangement to allow grain supplies out of the Black Sea.

    Food markets are so interconnected that “wherever you are in the world, you feel the effect if global prices go up," said Ian Mitchell, an economist and London-based co-director of the Europe program at the Center for Global Development.

    Pakistani farmers sort wheat grains after they have been threshed during the harvest season at a village on the outskirts of Peshawar.

    The Wilson Center, a nonpartisan research institute, reported on March 6 that 77 million Pakistanis are going hungry and 45 million are malnourished.

    Though Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 wheat-producing countries, inflation has destroyed the purchasing power of the rupee, resulting in record prices for vegetables, beans, rice, and wheat.

    The Central Bank of Pakistan raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 21 percent on April 4, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level since records began in 1992. Consumer price inflation in Pakistan accelerated to a record 35.37 percent in March from a year earlier, eclipsing February's 31.5 percent, the statistics bureau said on April 1.

    According to the Global Hunger Index 2021, Pakistan ranks 92nd out of 107 countries, indicating a "serious" level of hunger. The government of Pakistan has launched several initiatives to address food insecurity; however, it remains a significant challenge.

  • Riaz Haq

    4 reasons India won’t overtake China as the world’s agricultural commodity hub any time soon | South China Morning Post


    https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221894/four-reasons-i...


    At the lowest income levels, food is consumed in its most basic form as whole grain or in simple porridges. As incomes rise, that grain is increasingly consumed indirectly – it could be baked into bread or fed to animals for meat production. Each subsequent stage requires further processing, as well as additional ingredients such as oil and sugar to complete formulations.

    exponential increases in higher-value food consumption take hold as incomes grow from US$1,000 and US$10,000 before plateauing above US$20,000. A large, young and rapidly growing population base with incomes rising from modest to median levels makes an ideal environment for agricultural commodity demand growth.

    ------------------

    India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous country, according to UN projections. Around one in three people on the planet now lives within the borders of these two nations.
    The media frenzy surrounding the revelation centred on the economic implications of India’s new status, much to the chagrin of the Chinese authorities. The question now arises as to what this means for the global agricultural market.
    Since the dawn of the Malthusian spectre, population growth has been associated with a reduction in living standards. As the theory goes, populations grow faster than the resources required to feed them.
    China has been able to defy that thesis in the past two decades, combining a growing population with consistent income growth. It has become the largest buyer of key agricultural commodities to ensure its inhabitants enjoy a diversified diet.

    China is now a top importer of the most widely traded crops globally: soybeans, vegetable oil, corn and sugar. With that, Beijing wields enormous influence in this space. Chinese demand has caused explosive growth in South American soybean production, leading Brazil to pass the United States as the world’s leading producer of soybeans and prompting Argentina to become the top exporter of soybean meal.

  • Riaz Haq

    Sugar production/consumption in Pakistan

    Due to slight increases in area and sugarcane yields, sugar production in 2022/23 is forecast to reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal increase over the good 2021/22 crop. Sugar consumption for 2022/23 is forecast at 6.1 MMT (approx 26 Kg per person)  , which would be a 3.3 percent increase, reflecting population growth and demand from the expanding food processing sector. The production estimate for 2021/22 is increased reflecting the excellent crop last year. As a result, ending stocks are higher, leading to a larger exportable surplus entering 2022/23. Due to the large stocks, and competitive prices, sugar exports are forecast to reach one million tons in 2022/23

    https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFil...

    ----------

    Sugar production/consumption in India

    Assuming normal rainfall and favorable weather conditions, India’s centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (October-September) is forecast to grow three percent to 34.7 million metric tons (MMT) (equivalent to 31.8 MMT of crystal white sugar) on a sugarcane production forecast of 389 MMT. Uttar Pradesh will continue to be the largest sugar producing state, followed by Maharashtra and Karnataka. India will retain its existing export policy that will enable subsidized exports at six MMT. Consumption is forecast to rise two percent to 28.5 MMT (approx 20 Kg per person), as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Closing stocks are estimated at 16.5 MMT and expected to further decline as India diverts more sugar toward ethanol production to meet its domestic blending mandate.

    https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-sugar-annual-5#:~:text=Sugar%20....

  • Riaz Haq

    As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports. Similar uncertainty surrounds domestic meal and oil production forecasts. With expectations for better cottonseed production, total oilseed production in 2023/24 is projected to increase to 2.95 million tons, a 24 percent above than 2022/23. In line with population growth, edible oil demand is forecast to grow about 5 percent, and palm oil imports are forecast to grow accordingly, reaching 3.6 million tons (15 Kg per person) in 2023/24.

    https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/pakistan-oilseeds-and-products-annual-7

    ----------------

    India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (October-September) is forecast to remain flat at 41.5 million metric tons (MMT), mostly unchanged from MY 2022/2023. Unseasonably heavy spring precipitation and a predicted El Niño weather pattern in the wake of severe April-June heatwaves will expose summer oilseed crops to greater incidences of plant stresses and thus impact yields. Oil meal production will remain steady at 20 MMT while exports will fall to 1.9 MMT, following an exceptional increase in exports in the current MY as southeast Asian demand has favored competitively priced Indian oil meals against other origins. India will remain among the largest consumers of edible oils and is forecast to import 14.5 MMT (10 Kg per person) of various oil commodities in the outyear. Global decline in oilseed prices and relatively low import duties have stabilized domestic edible oil prices, leading to record ending stocks in the current year.

    https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-oilseeds-and-products-annual-7

  • Riaz Haq

    Feature: Chinese canola crops transform Pakistan's cooking oil industry, boosts local economy-Xinhua


    https://english.news.cn/asiapacific/20230529/a7d93b309d814273849cb8...

    Pakistan's annual consumption of cooking oil is around 5 million tons, but due to the low economic potential of oilseeds in the local market, they are not preferred by the farmers. The country has to import about 89 percent of its oil to meet the demand, spending 3.6 billion dollars annually.

    Dealers associated with oilseed distribution have said that the newly introduced variety has a high-profit margin for the farmers and, as such, it has become famous among local farmers just two years after its introduction in Pakistan.

    Muhammad Rizwan, a seed distributor in Gujranwala, told Xinhua that the Chinese canola seed is resistant to diseases and has a higher yield than other previously available oilseed varieties on the market.

    "Other oil seeds were sold for about 5,000 to 6,000 rupees per 40 kg on the market this year, whereas the Chinese canola was sold for up to 9,500 rupees, it also had a 20 percent to 30 percent higher yield than the other varieties," Rizwan explained.

    "The seed is now a hot cake in the eyes of farmers in the Gujranwala district so we have placed a higher order than last year to the seed company to meet the demand in the next cultivation season in November this year," he added.

    Last year, 11 tons of seeds were cultivated on 20,000 acres of land across the country, while this year 100 tons are expected to be cultivated due to a higher demand for the seed.

    Housewife Saima Rizwan told Xinhua that she came to know about this oil six months ago from social media and how the oil extracted from Chinese canola is beneficial for health besides being cost-effective.

    "I asked my husband to buy the oil and its taste was so good that we have never bought imported oil since. We cook all local dishes in the oil, and sometimes when we invite guests, they can't tell the food is cooked in canola oil rather than the commonly used palm oil," the 32-year-old told Xinhua.

    Muhammad Azim, team leader of Eyvol group in Gujranwala, said that it was a bumper yield of canola this year compared to other crops, due to which farmers were very happy.

    "It is a new beginning because farmers are making a good profit as consumption of locally produced oil increases," said Azim.

    "As a next step, we will focus on local production of the seeds in Pakistani nurseries with the help of our Chinese friends to make the seeds more affordable for the local farmers," he said.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistani Mango Crop Set To Recover After Last Year’s Heatwave | Produce Report


    https://www.producereport.com/article/pakistani-mango-crop-set-reco...

    Pakistan’s annual mango production averages 1.8 million metric tons, of which approximately 150,000 metric tons are exported. Given last year’s weather challenges, the export target for 2022/23 was reduced by one-sixth to 125,000 metric tons early in the season, according to Waheed Ahmed, patron in chief of the All Pakistan Fruit & Vegetable Exporters, Importers & Merchants Association.

    ----------

    Pakistan witnessed an extreme heatwave during last year’s spring months that strongly affected the crop of mangos, the country’s second-largest fruit export after citrus fruits. Mango trees, which are vulnerable to temperature variations during the flowering period, suffered under the unusually high temperatures — up by 3–8 degrees Celsius from the average — causing the 2022/23 harvest to plummet by half.

    In addition to thermometer readings reaching record highs, mango growers experienced severe water shortages. Although farmers actively pumped groundwater in an effort to protect the trees from heat stress, much of this was unsuitable for agricultural use because of varying salt levels, potentially complicating future plant and fruit growth.

    Pakistan’s annual mango production averages 1.8 million metric tons, of which approximately 150,000 metric tons are exported. Given last year’s weather challenges, the export target for 2022/23 was reduced by one-sixth to 125,000 metric tons early in the season, according to Waheed Ahmed, patron in chief of the All Pakistan Fruit & Vegetable Exporters, Importers & Merchants Association.


    While final figures for fiscal year 2022/23 (July–June) have yet to be released, the available statistics show that Pakistan’s mango production has either decreased or remained stagnant over the past decade. To boost mango yield and exports, several government departments and industry stakeholders worked together to develop the Fruits and Vegetables Export Strategy, which will be implemented between 2023 and 2027. As part of the strategy, China is highlighted as a premium market for Pakistani mangos, with greater exports to this lucrative market representing one of the key goals. A number of investments have also been proposed with the purpose of enhancing the sector’s pest control and management, farm hygiene, cold chain transportation and other attributes to more successfully meet China’s import requirements.

    In response to the recent climate vagaries, industry members have recommended that the government invest in the research and development of heat-resistant cultivars, the establishment of small-scale meteorological stations providing area-specific updates, and the expansion of digital channels for agriculture, such as real-time advisory services to offer growers rapid assistance in the case of unexpected events.

    This year’s moderate March and April temperatures have the sector hoping for a stronger crop in the current season, with an initial production forecast of 1.7 million metric tons having been announced.

    The Pakistani mango industry is sparing no effort in promoting its fruit in China, organizing webinars with Chinese importers and distributors as well as mango festivals and other marketing events. However, exports have not yet reached the anticipated level. In 2022, Pakistan exported only 23.95 metric tons of fresh or dried mangos to China with a value of $55,605, down from 37.42 metric tons and $127,200 in 2021.

  • Riaz Haq

    Total production of kinnow in Pakistan is around 2.1 million tons, said All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters, Importers and Merchants Association (PFVA) Patron-in-Chief Waheed Ahmed. “Export target has been set at 350,000 tons as opposed to the 300,000 tons exported in the previous season.”

    “The export of kinnow is expected to fetch foreign exchange worth $210 million,” he added.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/2274395/kinnow-exports-likely-to-fetch-210m

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan sugar production for 2023/24 is forecast to rise 250,000 tonnes to 7.1 million due to the recovery in sugarcane area harvested from the flood-damaged crop the year before.

    http://www.ukrsugar.com/en/post/pakistan-sugar-production-is-foreca...

    It is reported by USDA in its May report.

    https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf

    Sugarcane production is forecast up 3 percent to 83.5 million tons due to the expected recovery in area. Favorable prices are encouraging farmers to maintain sugarcane area vis-à-vis planting other crops. Farmers’ preference toplant sugarcane is also due to the crop’s resiliency to weather hazards compared to alternative crops. Sugarcane is produced in three provinces, with Punjab accounting for 68 percent of total production, followed by Sindh with 24 percent, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) with 8 percent. The Bahawalpur division of Punjab and the Sukkur division of Sindh account for more than half of the total sugarcane area. Sugarcane is planted in two different seasons: spring planting runs from February to March and the fall season is from September to October. Punjab and Sindh farmers plant sugarcane in both seasons, while most cane in KPK is planted in spring. Yields per hectare are relatively low due to lack of high yielding varieties, water shortages, and uneven fertilizer distribution.

    Pakistan has been one of the top eight sugar producers for the past 3 years and is forecast to be the seventh largest exporter in 2023/24. Sugar consumption is estimated up 150,000 tons to 6.3 million supported by population growth and higher supplies. Despite the rise in production, sugar exports are forecast down 200,000 tons to 800,000 as the government seeks to curb exports. Fearing domestic price increases, the government is expected to be reluctant to approve too many exports this year by monitoring the market situation on a fortnightly basis to decide on the timing and quantity of exports. Stocks are expected to be flat.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan world's 7th largest sugar producing country.

    https://www.czarnikow.com/blog/the-sugar-series-the-top-10-sugar-pr...


    10. Australia 4.1 million tons

    9. Russia 5.4 million tons

    8. Mexico 6.1 million tons

    7. Pakistan 7.8 million tons

    4. Thailand 10.3 million tons

    3. European Union and UK 21 millon tons (Beet sugar in France, Germany, Belgium, Poland)

    2. Brazil 34.9 million tons

    1. India 36 million tons



    7. Pakistan

    Sugarcane is a major cash crop for Pakistan and, unlike India and Brazil, Pakistan grows the plant almost solely for the purpose of sugar extraction. In 2021/22 the nation produced 7.8 million tonnes of sugar – its highest volume ever. Pakistan’s sugar industry was challenged by drought in 2019/20 which, for an agrarian economy like Pakistan with a cane yield per hectare smaller than the world average (46 tonnes per hectare verses 60 tonnes per hectare respectively), was a serious problem. From 2016/17 to 2019/20 Pakistan saw year-on-year decline in its sugar output. But its fortunes have changed. Sugar production increased for two consecutive seasons because yields and land area for sugarcane increased significantly and government measures to protect farmers’ incomes guaranteed a minimum sales price.

    In February 2021 Pakistan’s sugar prices rose as predictions of overall output being 200,000 tonnes less in 2021/22 than the 2020/21 season influenced speculative action in the market. That did not happen. Instead, Pakistan’s sugar output was over two million tonnes higher in 2021/22 than 2020/21. In October 2022 traders found themselves waiting on the government to authorise exports of the excess sugar produced.

  • Riaz Haq

    Peanuts to solve high edible oil prices issue
    Pakistan, China join hands to increase planting area, crop yield

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/2404516/peanuts-to-solve-high-edible-o...


    Lately, Rainbow’s high-oleic-acid peanut cultivation base project was formally included in the China-Pakistan agricultural cooperation framework by the Ministry of Agriculture, China.

    “As you can see, our seed registration with Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) has started. A total of five high-oleic peanut varieties for oil extraction of Runhua series have been trial-planted in Pakistan, which is expected to achieve fruitful results,” revealed Fan Changcheng, Deputy General Manager of Rainbow.

    “Next, our aim is to increase the area gradually to 1,500 hectares in the coming years,” he said.

    “My country has a long tradition of peanut planting. Peanuts like warm environment with sufficient sunlight, with loose and breathable sandy loam as the most suitable soil condition. The Potohar region of Punjab is the best area for peanut production,” Ijaz stated, adding that peanut seeds contain 40-50% oil and the high-oleic peanut oil is rich in unsaturated fatty acids.

    “During our trial, we always focused on how the local environment can act on the quality of seeds on the whole. The varieties we selected have the highest oleic acid content, up to 75-80%, which means very high nutritional value.”

    “Self-sufficient in peanut production means that we can reduce our import bill of edible oil,” said Muhammad Jahanzaib, Scientific Officer of the Oil Seed Research Programme in NARC Pakistan.

    Statistics of the US Department of Agriculture showed that Pakistan’s peanut planting area in 2022-23 is about 150,000 hectares, with total output of 140,000 metric tons.

    THE ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED ON THE CHINA ECONOMIC NET

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan: Oilseeds and Products Annual | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service


    https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/pakistan-oilseeds-and-products-annual-7

    As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports. Similar uncertainty surrounds domestic meal and oil production forecasts. With expectations for better cottonseed production, total oilseed production in 2023/24 is projected to increase to 2.95 million tons, a 24 percent above than 2022/23. In line with population growth, edible oil demand is forecast to grow about 5 percent, and palm oil imports are forecast to grow accordingly, reaching 3.6 million tons in 2023/24.

  • Riaz Haq

    Rice exports earn Pakistan $2.1bn in tumultuous FY23


    https://www.dawn.com/news/1767422


    Despite significant production losses and other major challenges, Pakistan exported a total of 3.717 million tonnes of rice to earn $2.149 billion in FY23.

    The rice sector showed strong resilience and immense resistance despite head and tail winds like devastating floods that wiped out one-third of Sindh’s crop, wavering rupee movement, tough competition from India, high freight charges as well as unavailability of vessels during the first six months of 2022-23.

    The export of basmati varieties of rice stood at 595,120 tonnes fetching $650,423 at an average per tonne (APT) rate of $1,092. Coarse or non-basmati varieties’ export touched 3.122 million tonnes, fetching $1.498bn at an APT rate of $480.

    In the preceding year, the country fetched $2.5bn by making export shipments of 4.8m tonnes.

    Exports have been mainly hit by a drop in production, as against 9.1 million tonnes output during 2021-22, the country could harvest around 6 million tonnes of rice in FY23, a fall of over 34pc.

    Floods and torrential rains had damaged paddy crops, particularly in Sindh and south Punjab districts and the overall crop losses had been estimated at around 20pc.

    At least 35pc of the standing rice crop had been damaged in Sindh and 29pc in south Punjab while other rice-growing areas were partially hit by excessive heatwaves which affected the yields and the losses were reflected in the exports.

    Hamid Malik, an expert on the rice trade, told Dawn that India had manipulated prices to facilitate its exporters by offering subsidies to farmers.

    “This subsidy was in fact for the exporters and not the farming community as Indian rice export rates remained $60 to $70 lower than that of Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam in the international markets throughout the year.”

    Higher basmati rates in the local market also affected its exports as stockists entered the local market and made their hey through speculative trade.

    Samiullah Naeem, a former chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP), says that basmati rice was available in the market at Rs8,500 per 40kg at the beginning of the crop season but within a couple of months the rate crossed even Rs12,000 per 40kg making it difficult for the exporters to fulfil their export commitments.

    He says that speculative traders were the major beneficiaries of the price hike though rice growers and millers also benefited from it to some extent.

    The export prospects for the current fiscal year seem to be promising as quotations for 25pc broken rice are being reported at $535 per tonne to their highest level since August 2008. The main push behind the rate hike is stated to be a ban by India on the export of its coarse rice varieties.

  • Riaz Haq

    In Pakistan, flood damage meant 2022/23 cane sugar production reduced to 7.2 mln tonnes compared to 8.6 mln tonnes in 21/22. The area under cane remains consistent with last season, but reduced fertilisers prices could push 23/24 sugar production to 7.8 mln tonnes.


    https://www.ragus.co.uk/global-sugar-market-report-may-2023/#:~:tex....

    Unpredictable rains in India and Pakistan squeeze cane production
    Estimates for India’s sugar production from the 2022/23 cane crop are below the decreased figure we estimated last October. The 35.6 mln tonnes we expect is much lower than the 39 mln tonnes produced in 21/22. Any further exports onto the global market this season seem unlikely, despite India having an export quota of 6 mln tonnes for the world market.

    Despite an increased area under cane, low rainfall during the growing season and too much rain just before the harvest began resulted in lower cane yields. For the 2023/24 crop, the area under cane has increased again. If the monsoon rainfall is average, we expect India to produce 36.4 mln tonnes of sugar. However, that figure only holds if there are no major increases in cane juice or molasses diverted into ethanol production. In 22/23 the equivalent of 4.5 mln tonnes of sugar was used for ethanol production. In 23/24, we expect that figure to be 3.78 mln tonnes.

    If an El Niño weather pattern develops, dry conditions would affect cane planting for the 24/25 crop. In neighbouring Pakistan, flood damage meant 2022/23 cane sugar production reduced to 7.2 mln tonnes compared to 8.6 mln tonnes in 21/22. The area under cane remains consistent with last season, but reduced fertilisers prices could push 23/24 sugar production to 7.8 mln tonnes.

  • Riaz Haq

    Annual milk production during 2021/2022 was estimated approximately 65.7 million tonnes, giving Pakistan a place in the list of world's top 5 milk producing countries. Dairy farming in Pakistan is fragmented and practiced on various scales both in rural and peri-urban areas mainly by private sector.

    https://sdgs.un.org/sites/default/files/2023-05/B65%20-%20Tariq%20-...

    Dairy sector in Pakistan plays a pivotal role in the national economy and its value is more than the
    combined value of major cash-crops i.e. wheat and cotton. Annual milk production during 2021/2022 was
    estimated approximately 65.7 million tonnes, giving Pakistan a place in the list of world’s top 5 milk
    producing countries. Dairy farming in Pakistan is fragmented and practiced on various scales both in rural
    and peri-urban areas mainly by private sector. However, this industry is facing challenges (nutrition,
    healthcare, breeding, government support and public health) that threaten its sustainability and
    livelihoods of millions of people involved in the sector

  • Riaz Haq

    Potato consumption per capita reached 15.4 kg in 2020 in Pakistan, according to Faostat. This is 0.517% less than in the previous year.

    Historically, potato consumption per capita in Pakistan reached an all time high of 15.5 kg in 2019 and an all time low of 1.86 kg in 1961.

    Pakistan has been ranked 97th within the group of 165 countries we follow in terms of potato consumption per capita.


    https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/potato-consumption-per-capi...


    --------------------------

    Based on a comparison of 165 countries in 2020, Belarus ranked the highest in potato consumption per capita with 170 kg followed by Ukraine and Kazakhstan. On the other end of the scale was South Sudan with 0.080 kg, Central African Republic with 0.140 kg and Cambodia with 0.160 kg. .... World average potato consumption per capita is 32.7 Kg

    https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/potato-consumption-per-capita/

  • Riaz Haq

    Drought and floods wipe out farms in Asia’s chilli capital | Climate Crisis News | Al Jazeera

    https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2022/11/3/photos-drought-and-floo...

    Pakistan is ranked fourth in the world for chilli production, with 150,000 acres (60,700 hectares) of farms producing 143,000 tonnes annually. Agriculture forms the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, leaving it vulnerable to climate change.

    ------------

    PRODUCTION STATUS OF MAJOR VEGETABLES IN PAKISTAN

    https://agrinfobank.com.pk/production-status-of-major-vegetables-in...

    The total cropped area of the country reported for the year 2019, was 22.1 million ha. Out of this 65.8% was under food crops, 24.2% under cash crops, 6.7% under pulses and 3.3% under edible oilseeds. Vegetables constitute an integral component of the cropping pattern but the increasing pressure on food and cash crops has limited the area under vegetables to about 0.62 million ha, which is 3.1% of the total cropped area. Vegetables fit well in most farming systems due to shorter maturity period.

    Vegetable crops are very important due to their higher yield potential, higher return and high nutritional value and suitability for small land holding farmers. Vegetables provide proteins, minerals and vitamins required for human nutrition. In Pakistan, the daily per capita intake is low, being about 100 grams compared to the recommended consumption of about 285 grams. In view of population increase, land degradation and water scarcity, there is a need to substantially increase vegetable production in the years to come and to attain self-sufficiency as well as to increase the exportable surplus. However, in the past, development efforts in agriculture sector were primarily focused on production and development of cereal crops; in spite of the fact the vegetables provide maximum output per unit area.

  • Riaz Haq

    From Google Gen AI:


    Pakistan produced 83,335 tons of spinach in 2021. This is a very low amount compared to the largest spinach producing countries, which include China, Turkey, United States, Japan, and Indonesia.
    In Pakistan, spinach is ready for the first cutting 30 days after sowing. The average yield is 125 qtl/acre. The two varieties of spinach in Pakistan are Local Sindhi and prickly heat.
    In 2021, Pakistan's vegetable production was 7.07 million tonnes. This is an increase from 1.43 million tonnes in 1972.

  • Riaz Haq

    From Google Gen AI:

    Pakistan's fruit production increased from 9.48 million metric tons to 11.13 million metric tons between 2018 and 2021.
    In 2021, Pakistan produced 2.33 million tonnes of citrus fruits, which is an average annual growth rate of 3.95%.
    Pakistan also produced 1.6 million tons of oranges, 593 thousand tons of tangerines, 1,601 thousand tons of tomatoes, and 545 thousand tons of apples.
    Pakistan is a major producer of fruits and vegetables, and produces about 29 types of fruits and 33 types of vegetables. However, most of the production is consumed in domestic markets.
    Pakistan earned $730 million by exporting 1.165 million tons of fruits and vegetables in a year.
    The global production of major tropical fruits was estimated to be 92.2 million tons in 2017. Mango production ranked highest at 46 million tons.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan aims to boost oilseed cultivation


    https://tribune.com.pk/story/2430331/pakistan-aims-to-boost-oilseed...

    The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) has been instrumental in developing new rapeseed varieties, which have been adopted in some northern regions of China. The success of these efforts has enabled China to rotate rapeseed(Canola) crops with staple crops like rice and wheat, maximising land utilisation.

    Pakistan is now tapping into this experience by collaborating with Chinese company Wuhan Qingfa-Hesheng and Pakistani firm Evyol Group. Together, they are providing high-quality hybrid rapeseeds (Canola) to Pakistani farmers. Ghazanfar Ali, head of marketing at Evyol Group, emphasised the suitability of their variety for local climate conditions. “It took us 10 years to produce a variety that is compatible with the local climate, produces a good yield and is good for human health,” he said, noting that farmers can achieve 1.5 tonnes of yield from 2 acres of land, surpassing current varieties available in Pakistan by over 10%.

    Zhou Xusheng, director of the international business department at Wuhan Qingfa-Hesheng Seed company, outlined their ambitions. “This year we sold 11 tonnes of seeds across Pakistan, which will be cultivated on 20,000 acres, and our target for next year is 100 tonnes.” He also highlighted their intention to purchase the canola harvest from certain farmers and supply it to edible oil factories, thereby promoting the benefits of locally-produced oil.

  • Riaz Haq

    From Google Generative AI:


    Wheat is Pakistan's most important crop, accounting for 70% of production and 37.1% of the crop area. It's a staple food crop that's critical to millions of households.
    Pakistan has released 31 wheat varieties since 2021 to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat production. One leading Pakistani seed company developed a hybrid wheat seed that's 40% higher per acre than conventional varieties.
    Other high-yield crops in Pakistan include:
    Tarnab Rehbar and Tarnab Gandum-1
    These zinc-enriched varieties contain 40% more zinc than other varieties grown in Pakistan. They also have farmer-preferred traits like high yield and resistance to rust diseases.

    RH-647
    This new Bt. cotton variety has high yield potential and is best suited for wheat-cotton cropping patterns. It yielded significantly compared with standard varieties.
    Other major crops in Pakistan include: Cotton, Rice, Sugarcane, Maize.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan’s potato production soared to 7.937 million tonnes in FY22 from 5.873 million tonnes in FY21, up 35 percent as the devastating floods left Punjab, the potato hub, mostly unscathed.

    https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1107423-chinese-investors-eye-pota...

    Pakistan China Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCJCCI) President Moazzam Ghurki during a think tank session held at PCJCCI Secretariat on Wednesday said Pakistan could be among the largest exporters of potato and though the country was self-sufficient in the food item, it imported 20,000 tonnes of potato seeds every year.

    He suggested focusing on increasing the supply of local seeds, which could help save the precious foreign exchange reserves, which was spent on purchasing seeds from the international market, while at the same time increase the income of farmers.

    If Pakistan succeeds in large-scale production of local high-quality potatoes, it could also export these edible stems to other countries, particularly in the Gulf region.

    PCJCCI president added that most of the potato seeds in Pakistan had high dependence on imports, which raised the initial cost of potato production.

    “About 35-40 percent of the cost goes to seeds, and there is a dire need to make it cost-effective for the low-income farmers,” Ghurki said. He urged to promote a tissue-culture laboratory for the production of affordable high-quality seeds within the country on a large scale to reduce dependence on foreign seeds.

    PCJCCI Senior Vice President Fang Yulong said that Pakistani and Chinese enterprises have been working tirelessly to find opportunities for cooperation in this sector. In addition to seed production, related potato by-products are also welcomed by Chinese investors. Besides this, mechanised harvesting, pest control are also full of opportunities for investment.

    “To build Pakistan’s largest potato tissue culture lab, various Chinese agricultural enterprises are involved for its practical implementation,” he added. “The most common potato diseases in Pakistan include early blight, stem rot and so on.

    In contrast, Chinese varieties are more resistant to pests and diseases with higher yields, which is exactly what Pakistan needs to learn to improve our own potato germplasm,” Yulong said.

    PCJCCI Vice President Hamza Khalid said, “We must ensure localised production of high-quality seeds, and at the same time improve planting technology and mechanisation level. Then we might be able to export potatoes to other countries. We have a huge potential for countries that have smaller land areas or don’t produce much of their own potatoes.”

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan’s annual consumption of edible oil is around 5 million tons, but due to the low economic potential of oilseeds in the local market, they are not preferred by the farmers. The country has to import about 89 percent of oil to meet the demand, spending US$3.6 billion annually.

    https://dailytimes.com.pk/1122982/chinese-company-to-help-pakistan-...

    Pakistan’s iron brother, China, also has great demand for edible oil. Last year, China’s cooking oil consumption is about 13.44 million tons. China also suffered a short domestic supply of edible oil until the mid-1950s, when China began to promote brassica napus, also known as victory rapeseed. Brassica napus plants are tall, disease resistant, and more importantly, the yield is very high. The improvement of rapeseed varieties laid the foundation for China to greatly increase rapeseed production.

    In recent years, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) has made a great breakthrough in breeding new varieties of rapeseed, which have been extended to some parts of northern China. Rapeseed now realized seasonal rotation with rice, wheat and other staple crops, which maximizes the utilization of arable land. Such Chinese experience and technologies can be a good reference for Pakistan, according to CEN.


    Chinese company Wuhan Qingfa-Hesheng and a Pakistani company Evyol Group jointly provide high-quality hybrid rapeseeds to Pakistani farmers. “It took us 10 years to produce a variety that is compatible with the local climate, produces a good yield and is good for human health,” said Ghazanfar Ali, head of marketing in the Evyol group. “The crop provides an increased profit for the farmers. They can get 1.5 tons of yield out of 2 acres of land, which is over 10 percent more than the yield from other varieties currently available in Pakistan.”

    “This year we sold 11 tons of seeds across Pakistan, which will be cultivated on 20,000 acres, and our target for next year is 100 tons,” said Zhou Xusheng, director of the international business department of Wuhan Qingfa-Hesheng Seed company.

    The Chinese company will also buy back the canola harvest from some of the farmers and send it to the edible oil factories so that both farmer and the factory owners can realize the potential and health benefits of the oil.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan's fruit exports up 17.85% in first ten months of current fiscal year

    https://www.freshplaza.com/asia/article/9629192/pakistan-s-fruit-ex...

    Pakistan's fruit exports experienced a 17.85% rise in the first ten months of the current fiscal year compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. This increase is documented by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), highlighting an escalation from 232,700 million dollars to 274,227 million dollars during July-April (2023-24). Furthermore, a significant 29.32% year-on-year growth was observed in April 2024, with exports reaching 8.161 million dollars against the 6.311 million dollars recorded in April 2023.

    Despite the annual growth, a month-on-month comparison shows a 58.51% decrease in April 2024 from 19.629 million dollars in March 2024. Additionally, Pakistan's overall merchandise exports saw a 9.10% increase during the first ten months of the fiscal year 2023-24, totaling 25.280 billion dollars as opposed to 23.171 billion dollars in the same timeframe of the previous year.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan exports first shipment of cherries to China | Article | Fruitnet

    https://www.fruitnet.com/asiafruit/pakistan-exports-first-shipment-...


    Pakistan has shipped its first consignment of fresh cherries to China marking the opening of Asia’s largest market for the industry.

    The Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) announced the shipment was dispatched to China on 5 June. It said under the phytosanitary agreement with China over 100 orchards have been registered with China’s General Administration of Customs.

    According to a report from Dawn, the first shipment contained 6 tonnes of cherries and was transported by refrigerated truck over the border. The cherries were grown in key the key production region of Gilgit-Baltistan, which produces approximately 5,000 tonnes a season.

    Following the initial shipment Pakistan hopes to ramp up supply and send 260 tonnes of cherries to China by the end of the month.

    The Pakistan Horticulture Development & Export Company (PHDEC) has been working with the local cherry industry on development, helping to educate growers on producing popular varieties.

    PHDEC chief executive Athar Hussain Khokhar said by producing the required varieties of cherries, the country can capture a slice of the China market.

    “Proximity and growing demand for the fruit in the Chinese market are a major competitive advantage to Gilgit-Baltistan growers,” Khokhar said.