Pakistan: Hopes Rise For Cheap and Abundant Electricity

Pakistani power sector is continuing its march toward cheap indigenous sources of electricity. Hydropower component has increased 22%, coal 57% and nuclear 8% while oil is down 54% and natural gas and LNG are down 32% and 15% respectively, according to Bloomberg. These changes in power mix are expected to help significantly reduce power subsidies that run into hundreds of billions of rupees contributing to large annual budget deficits.

Data From NEPRA. Courtesy Pakistan Today


Coal's contribution to power mix now stands at just 21%, in spite of 57% increase in use of coal in Fiscal Year 2020. It is still almost half of the global average of 38% of electricity produced from coal. Overall, the contribution of fossil fuels in electricity generation is now about 54%, down from nearly 66% a few years ago.

Pakistan Power Generation Mix. Source: Bloomberg


Hydropower and natural gas now contribute 32% each, making them the biggest sources of electricity in Pakistan. Coal comes next at 21%, followed by nuclear at 8%.

Pakistan Power Generation Plan 2019-2040. Courtesy of World Economic Forum


One of the biggest economic challenges Pakistan faces is it growing debt and deficit from subsidies to the power sector. Often referred to as "circular debt" in Pakistan, the government owes Rs. 1.6 trillion ($7.2 billion) to power sector at the end of June 2019. Pakistan government is now is committed to improving the situation by its development of an Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) that runs until 2040.



Change in Sources of Electricity in 2020. Source: Bloomberg

Pakistan recent efforts to diversify its fuel mix for cost reduction are raising hopes for cheap and abundant electricity needed for its industries and residential consumers.  Already, the electricity generation cost is down 11% and current account deficit has declined 78%. There is a plan called "Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan" in place. Execution is the key to making the power sector greener, cheaper and more reliable.
Fuel Mix For Power Generation in Pakistan. Source: Third Pole
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  • Riaz Haq

    Cost of #India Quitting #Coal Is $900 Billion over 30 Years, says a report by #Indian Think Tank known as iFOREST. It identified 8 different cost factors, like setting up #infrastructure & getting workers ready for the transition. #energytransition https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2023-03-23/cost-of-in...

    If India stopped burning coal tomorrow, over five million people would lose their jobs. But for a price tag of around $900 billion over the next 30 years, the country can make sure nobody is left behind in the huge move to clean energy to curb human-caused climate change, according to figures released by New Delhi-based think tank Thursday.

    The International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology, known by the acronym iFOREST, released two reports detailing how much it will cost for India to move away from coal and other dirty fuels without jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions who still are employed in coal mines and thermal power plants.

    Ensuring that everyone can come along in the clean energy shift that's needed to stop the worst harms of climate change and guaranteeing new work opportunities for those in fossil fuel industries, known as a just transition, has been a major consideration for climate and energy analysts.

    “Just transition should be viewed as an opportunity for India to support green growth in the country’s fossil fuel dependent states and districts,” said Chandra Bhushan, the head of iFOREST.

    To get the $900 billion figure, the group researched four coal districts in India and identified eight different cost factors, like setting up infrastructure and getting workers ready for the transition.

    The biggest single investment to enable a just transition will be the cost of setting up clean energy infrastructure, which the report estimates could be up to $472 billion by 2050. Providing workers with clean energy jobs will cost less than 10% of the total amount required for a just transition, or about $9 billion.

    The think tank said $600 billion would come as investments in new industries and infrastructure, with an additional $300 billion as grants and subsidies to support coal industry workers and affected communities.

    “The scale of transition is massive. If formal and informal sector workers are included, we are talking about an industry that is the lifeline for 15-20 million people,” said Sandeep Pai, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington D.C. based think tank. “Reports like this are extremely important since the just transition conversation is beginning only now in India ... we need much more of the same.”

    India is one of the largest emitters of planet-warming gases, behind only China, the U.S. and the EU. The country depends on coal for 75% of its electricity needs and for 55% of its overall energy needs.

    The country is still a far way off quitting coal. Earlier this month, the Indian government issued emergency orders stipulating that coal plants are run at full capacity through this summer to avoid any power outages. The country’s coal use is expected to peak between 2035 and 2040, according to government figures.

    Prime minister Narendra Modi announced in 2021 that the country will achieve net zero emissions — where it only puts out greenhouse gases that it can somehow offset — by 2070. On Monday, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged nations to speed up their net zero goals, calling for developing countries to set a target of 2050. He was met with a muted response.

    The reports recommends that the Indian government focuses on retiring old and unprofitable mines and power plants first. Over 200 of India's more than 459 mines can be retired in this way.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistani PM inaugurates coal power plant under CPEC

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1287903.shtml


    Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif here on Wednesday formally inaugurated the Thar Coal Block-I Coal Electricity Integration project, an energy cooperation project under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

    The plant, which was officially put into commercial operation in early February, has two 660-megawatt high-parameter coal-fired generating units, supported by an annual output of 7.8 million tons of lignite open-pit coal mine. It is capable of meeting the electricity demand of 4 million households in Pakistan.

    Addressing the inauguration ceremony, Sharif said that it is a moment of great delight for the whole of Pakistan.

    This was a desert region with the sand dunes only, the prime minister said, adding, "Now it has been transformed and industrialized."

    It is producing electricity which is being transmitted all across Pakistan, bringing prosperity into the entire country, he said.

    "This great project would provide a lot of boost to Pakistan's economy in the years to come," Sharif added.

    On the occasion, Pang Chunxue, charge d'affaires of the Chinese embassy in Pakistan, said that Thar Coal Block-I would help Pakistan in reducing fuel imports, saving foreign exchange reserves, optimizing power supply structure and enhancing energy security.

    "It has provided more than 18,000 direct employment opportunities for the locals, with a cumulative tax payment of 120 million U.S. dollars and corporate social responsibility expenditure of over 1.3 million dollars," said Pang.

  • Riaz Haq

    'Tarbela project to generate power next year' | The Express Tribune

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/2555035/tarbela-project-to-generate-po...

    The Tarbela Dam's total generating capacity is currently 4,888 MW. However, with the completion of the 5th Extension project, which is expected in 2025, the capacity will increase to 6,418 MW.This makes Tarbela Pakistan's largest hydropower generation unit.

    ————-

    The total electricity generation capacity of Tarbela Power House will reach 6,418 megawatts from the existing 4,888 MW after the commissioning of the Tarbela 5th Extension Project in 2025.

    The WAPDA spokesman told APP the project would provide environment-friendly and low-cost hydel electricity to the National Grid.

    WAPDA is constructing the Tarbela 5th Extension Hydropower Project on Tunnel No 5 of Tarbela Dam with the financial assistance of World Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

    https://www.radio.gov.pk/29-05-2023/tarbelas-power-generation-capac...